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“It's the opposite. Instead of losing money on vacation, I like to come out ahead. That's why I love”
listing our home on Airbnb when we travel. Unlike Vegas, it's a win-win. While I get to travel and explore new places, someone else can stay in my home and experience everything my area has to offer. It doesn't hurt that it also puts a little more cash in my pocket. What makes that idea feel much more manageable now is the co-host network. You can connect with a local co-host who has hosting experience and can help take care of the important details. A co-host can help create
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things that we've never seen before and it's going to change our lives. Stephanie Link is the chief
investment strategist and head of investment solutions at high-tower advisors, a national wealth management firm. The investment solutions team at a high-tower currently has $8.2 billion in assets under management and Stephanie's insights are sought after by every single big financial show on air. Today she gives us a vibe check on the market. We care because if the economy is growing 3% earnings can grow 20 to 25% which I've been doing this a long time. I know you have too. I've
never seen 25% earnings growth like we saw last quarter and we're on pace to do another 20% for the full year. What opportunities she's seeing right now, cybersecurity is going to be bigger than AI and whether AI investments are so worth high. We're in the third inning of AI revolution
we're in the second inning of cybersecurity we're in the first inning in robotics.
I'm Nicole Lappen, the only financial expert you don't need a dictionary to understand. It's time for some money really. Stephanie Link, welcome to Money Rehab. It's so great to be here to call thank you. It's so great to have you. I have had a intellectual crash on you for many, many years and I'm so
Happy to finally see you in person.
And honestly, you spend most of your day talking to old rich white men about money and so
now it's time to take all of your brain and amazing information and give it to everybody else.
“I'm looking forward to it. So what's going on with the markets right now?”
Yeah. It has been a wild year. If I had told you in the beginning of the year that we would have had Venezuela, we would have had scotists overturning the tariffs. We would have had AI and the software. Terrific general. Terrific general. You know the apocalypse in software because of AI private credit and now this war that we still have going on going and not really going. We're not sure. If I were to tell you that I would have thought that the market would be down double digits.
But in fact, the markets are up about 8% in the NASDAQs up about 11% year to date. And why is that? It's because the economy has an enormous amount of momentum behind it. There's a lot of tailwinds. And I have been bullish on the economy for the last couple of years. And I was thinking we could grow maybe two, two and a half percent this year. We're on track on pace to grow three and a half percent. Give or take. But that is much more, that is much stronger than even I thought. And a lot of
that has a lot to do with two things. The consumer is consuming even though the press would have you believe else otherwise. And we have this AI revolution. And we can get into all the details. But that is the main reasons why we have so much in terms of the tailwinds to the economy. And why do we even care? We care because if the economy is growing 3% earnings can grow 20 to 25%
“which I've been doing this a long time. I know you have to. I've never seen 25% earnings”
growth like we saw last quarter. And we're on pace to do another 20% for the full year. And again, it has a lot to do with these two really big parts of our economy. The the consumers consuming because they have jobs. And they have wage growth. And we can talk about inflation. I'm sure we'll talk about it. But it is going to be coming down. It is coming down. And then it's the not only the AI revolution, it's the food chain. So it's AI in all this capex that we're
hearing from all these big technology companies. But the beneficiaries of that capex, the industries that are seeing all this money being spent is widespread. So it's data centers and the build out. It is the grid and upgrading the grid because we haven't upgraded the grid in over 50 years. And then it's power. We don't have enough power. So you add all of this up. And that's why we're growing better than expected. So in English capex, capital expenditures just means like companies
are spending a bunch of money. And when they spend a bunch of money, they have to hire people to do whatever those projects that they're spending the money on. Yes. And it's just it's the big for
technology companies that are more than just for. But the big numbers, we're going to have $800 billion
as being spent this year, this year, which is up 75% from last year on these companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft. Those are kind of big names. They're the ones that are spending all of this money to build out AI. But you need the infrastructure. You need kind of like the picks and the shovels. And you're right. You need the people and we don't have enough people. Well, it's so crazy that you say that because colloquially, people are like, in this economy, you know,
and there's a vibe session, people don't feel like the economy is strong. But you're saying that the numbers show otherwise. Yes. And it's so many different sectors. So it's not just for the last couple of years, everyone was talking about mag seven, the names I was just talking about. And they were driving a lot of the growth. Now it's spread to all these other industries. And so you talked to some of these really, I don't want to be offensive, but like these boring industrial
companies. They're seeing caterpillar. I was going to say that. They're seeing like 35% backlog growth,
70% order growth. I've never seen numbers like this before. And it's because of all this spend,
“that's happening. And it's not going to end. I think next year you're going to see 1.1 trillion dollars”
of this spend from the same companies. Now, it's not going to be 75% year over your growth. It'll be more like 40 or 50%, but it's going to be they're going to spend it. And if I can just suggest anyone listening and watching, take a look at the CEO of Amazon. We all know Amazon. CEO Amazon is named Andy Jassie. He writes a shareholder letter every year in English so that we can all understand it, like just really very plain and simple. And he went through this year's shareholder
letter explaining exactly why they're spending so much in detail, because and in his words,
We've never seen anything like this in our lifetime.
because I truly believe we are seeing things that we've never seen before. And it's going to change
“our lives. And that's why they're spending so much. So if somebody is listening, we're watching,”
and they're like, but Andy is a very rich dude. And what about regular people who are struggling, and they're feeling inflation. So that's another economic marker. It's kind of a mixed bag. We're seeing so much hiring and the rest of it, but why doesn't it not feel that way? Because it's cashing. And we've heard about cashing, cashing, meaning, it's a client of the consumer that is doing the bulk of the spending. And why are they doing the bulk of the spending? Because
they have the money. They have interest in homes. So their home prices have appreciated. So they have the wealth of effect. And they also own stocks. And the market, the S&P 500 over the last three years, on average is up 18%. By the way, that's not normal. Normal is about 7%. 7 to 10, right? Yeah. So so if you think about it, it's the high end that is spending, but it usually is the case. I hate to say it. I want everyone to be spending. I want everyone to feel good, but that's not
normal. That's not normally what happens. I don't think the middle, the middle end consumer is feeling as badly as the lower end. And the lower end, unfortunately, they are the ones that get feel the brunt of inflation. Now, I will say on inflation just because we should go there for half a minute. It's a peaked at 9%. Yeah, that was what we do, right? That was COVID and all of our listeners bought I-bonds. Right? Right? I got a question on that too. And so we peaked at 9. We got down
to about 2 and a half. We're now at about 3 and a half because of the war. I strongly believe one way or the other, we're going to have to end this war, whether it achieves what the administration wanted or not. I'm not going to go down that path. However, the midterms are coming up and a can imagine that this administration wants gasoline prices of where they are. That all being said, believe it or not. Since we've kind of started talking about ceasefire, not ceasefire or whatnot,
oil prices have peaked in April at $112. That's crude, crude prices, and they're now at 69.
“So we've corrected in oil prices 39% from the highs. It's still high, but we've corrected and I think that's”
going to lead to lower gasoline prices at the pump. We're already seeing it. It's never as fast as we
want it to be, but I think you're going to continue to see it come down. That will help the inflation piece. I don't think we're going to get to 2%, which is what our federal reserve, the target wants. I think you're going to be around 2 and a half and I think that's the case again circling back to AI and the food chain because there's so much demand. There's so much money that wants all this stuff to be built out. We're short everything. We're short memory, we're short compute,
we're short copper, we're short aluminum, we're short a lot of things. We're short a lot of things. That by definition is inflationary. Eventually we'll get past this, the inflationary piece, because we'll fix the bottlenecks and the supply chains, and it will be a productivity enhancement. That's really positive for the long term, but we've got to get through this inflationary piece. So to answer your question, unfortunately, we're not out of the woods. Some people don't feel
well. They're feeling pressured for sure, but the consumer, the bulk of the consumer that has the money is spending, and they continue to spend a couple of different places like mainly on services. Goods too, but services and services is 75% of consumption. So we root, we root for the consumer, and then we root for them to spend on services for our economy. And we're saying it. So, to the inflation, get worse before it gets better, where are we at? It's 4%.
“I think we're three and a half forward depending on what numbers you look at, but I do think we're”
going to, I think we've seen peak, I really do. And I think so, because we're not going to have the oil piece of it that is really dragging us higher, because if we, now, this is a big if if we can get resolution on this on this war, and it does seem like it's headed that direction. And again, this administration can't afford to have oil prices where they are gasoline prices where they are into the midterms. And so, I do think you've seen peak, but I don't think we're
going to get to two. I see. So you're like, inflation is high when you're including oil, if yes, if you take out oil, we're actually doing okay. And so when the war resolves, it's going to come down.
Yes, and oil prices already have come down. But the problem is not just oil prices.
See, if oil prices go high, then all of the feedstocks, all of the food chain of commodities go higher as well, agriculture, all kinds of soil yields, soil yields, so if you have oil
Come down, I think you will see these other commodities come down again, not ...
really want them to go, just because this is a boom that we're seeing in this whole AI revolution.
Well, you're saying the boom, the gogo days of the S&P of 18 percent, typically 7 to 10 percent,
you know, accounting for inflation. Is it the S&P 500 or is it the S&P 493, which is stripping out the mag seven? Yeah, of those hex stocks that you last three years, it was the mag seven. It drove 90 percent of the returns on average this year, which it's kind of interesting that now last couple of days, we've seen a little bit of this funky stuff that goes on around the quarter and so I don't really pay too much attention to it, but this year we've actually seen
the S&P equal weight do better than the S&P market weight, which means exactly what you just said. The 493 are now starting to catch up to the mag seven and the reason, and that's like financials
and materials, energy, healthcare, other sectors are doing really well, and tech has taken
a breather other than semiconductors because they're on fire, but mag sevens have taken a breather because as an investor, you make money when you see better earnings growth, right? I mean, our friends at, you know, back in the day taught us this long time ago, stocks follow profits on the way up and on the way down. So if earnings are going higher, stocks usually follow, and then if they're going lower, they usually follow. And what happened with the mag seven
is that they're spending all this money, they're eating into their cash, into their free cash flow, and you don't necessarily make a lot of money when companies are heavily investing. We want them
to invest for the long term. However, you don't get that positive operating leverage. So you have
revenue growth, but you don't get margins margins become depressed and compressed because you're
“spending so much, and so you don't have as aggressive earnings growth. And that's what's happening”
with the mag seven. And at the same time, you're just seeing earnings growth that these other sectors, it's just kind of as simple as that, and the valuations are pretty attractive in these other sectors. So when you say looking at the equal weight S&P 500 for a new investor and they're hearing, okay, again, and as low cost of S&P 500 index fund, Warren Buffett said it, Nicole said it's definitely says it, which tickers should we be looking at considering that seven of the stocks
are have been driving so much of the growth. Yeah, I mean, I honestly believe strongly, and I was very lucky my father was in the business. I mean, still is in the business 80-89, and he taught me right at a college. You have to start investing. The sooner you do it, the better it is, right? Because you have that compounding thing happening. And of course, we have seven to
“10% average growth in the markets. I think it's as simple as buying the Vanguard S&P 500,”
because, and you could pick any of the ETFs because they're, you know, just the low cost, but you want the low cost provider because it's the most diversified and you dollar cost average. That just means you buy, you put a little bit of money away, is it once a month, once a quarter, every six months, but you just routinely put money in, and dollar cost average means you don't have to time it. Yeah, time to do this for a living, and it's hard to do, right? Totally, time in the market
needs timing the market. Yeah, I love that. And so if you're looking at like the Vanguard VOO for instance, which is low cost, would you still suggest looking at the total S&P index funds like the VOO or the SPY or the IVV compared to like some other kind of weighted version of it? I think you just want to, as diversified as you possibly can, and as low cost as you possibly can, there's no reason to spend money on a passive tool, passive investment tool.
I look at the expense ratio. Yeah, and I just like the diversification because you just don't know some years, Mag7 are going to be leaders and some years they're not. Again, you can't time that when it is, all I can tell you is that right now the Mag7, they're going through a massive massive, massive spending cycle, and that's going to lead to great growth in two, three, four, five years. Is it going to give you great growth in the next two, three, four months? Probably not.
It's not going to be bad, but I just think that in the meantime, since the economy is doing so
“well, that's why these other sectors are doing well because these other sectors are doing”
well because their earnings growth are going higher. We've gotten some questions, you know, because QQQ, the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq has been, I don't even know where's the charge of the chain up off the whatever. And so we've gotten some questions about leverage versions of that. What are your thoughts? No, because if you, if it's going up higher and if it's leverage, then it can go up even more. Right. But that also means it could do the absolute opposite. So
Leverage is like wanting momentum.
and if you're short, it's going lower and lower. But momentum is wonderful on the way up.
Everybody feels like a genius myself included. However, it rarely has anything to do with valuation.
“And that's always very important because when things reverse, you can't, you have no support.”
It's hard to really understand, okay, well, how far can these stocks go? Because if it's not based on valuation and it's based on sentiment and everyone's chasing, well, I'm like goodness, everybody could just go run for the hills if it goes the other way. So I just feel like I'm a conservative investor myself personally with my husband and I just think leverage is just, it's to me, fine. If you want to have a little piece of it in your portfolio, I have fun with it,
but please don't make it the majority of your portfolio. I just don't think it's really investing. What are you buying? So I am a big thematic investor. So the way I think of it in my portfolio is I love to talk big picture. I could talk with you all day long to call on the big picture. I'll put it on the tier, but more. But more your audience it's here. But I think big picture because I just like to know what's happening in the world, the global markets, what's happening with inflation, with growth,
with the Fed, all that stuff. And then I think about themes and where I want to invest for the long term.
“So I think about themes that have like a total addressable market. That's what they call”
"Tam." "Tam" and "Tam." But for the long term, for like a decade or two. And then I find stocks and try to find stocks on those themes. Like you find a thesis. So I'll give you one. Okay, let's go cyber security. Okay, okay, because we just talked about AI and the food chain. You absolutely positively want to have exposure to the AI food chain and we'll get to that in more detail on and that's because that's a big theme too. But cyber security is going to be bigger than AI.
Because of AI. AI is not secure. When you have companies that are using 50% of AI agents doing your coding, that by very definition is not secure. And so you have 4,000 companies, cyber security companies in the world, public and private, that I think you're going to see massive consolidation because the big 5 are going to get bigger because they don't offer a one-stop shop for their customers. So let me give you an example because I'll tell you from high tower. I talk to my
chief technology officer. He budgets all this stuff for that his technology needs for the year. And he has said to me, Stephanie, CTO's right now are spending on two things. One is AI because we have no idea what that means for our business and two cyber security because we can't afford to wake up and lose our business. And he has 20 vendors. This is high tower. We have 20 vendors because
not every company offers everything. But the problem is these 20 vendors don't talk to each other.
“Which is why we have cyber attacks all the time. So I think you're going to see massive consolidation”
in this sector. The big 5 get bigger and bigger, you know crowd strike and Palo Alto and Cisco, Z-Scale are so many different IBM lot of companies out there that are going to get bigger offer more to their customers because there's the demand. There's the need and we're going to see this for the next decade. So what's the best cyber security stock to buy? So for me Palo Alto is my favorite. Here's an interesting thing. These stocks got clobbered in the AI is going to kill software
apocalypse that happened in January and February of the last apocalypse. It was crazy. But cyber got hit as well because they are software companies. But they're also hardware too. They got hit really hard and so in March when they hit their lows and they were like down double
digits on the year the CEO's actually bought stock. Palo Alto CEO bought $10 million worth of stock
in March at almost at the lows and the same with crowd strike. Those are the two best in my opinion. But you could own, you could own a whole package. You could own a bundle of the names I just mentioned throwing forward in it in there. So crowd strike Palo Alto, Z-Scale or Cisco, Ford and that you could put them all together and have a bundle. You could own hack which is the ETF if you don't want as much volatility. I have ETFs for every all of my things. That's a good
name for what it is. I mean my husband bought crowd strike. I was flying that day of the big debacle that they had and so all the airlines infrastructure went down because of it and crowd strike
Was to blame and the stock got hit and my husband's like I'm buying crowd.
advice to give anyone is if you can find the number one or number two player in any given industry
“that goes through a crisis but that you know the management team is top notch which crowd strike is.”
That's when you want to be buying. You want to buy on sale right? We buy low sell high. People say they do but they don't. It's the only added on Wall Street and it's the hardest thing to actually do because of human emotion. But I want to buy my shoes on sale. You do too right? I mean it's and then it when it happens it's it's just such an emotionally tough industry. But high quality to be clear. Like sometimes when they're on sale it means they're in the pooper for a reason.
Oh absolutely. And by the way crowd strike was in the pooper for a couple months. Maybe even quarters. I'm in the penalty book. But it's so rare to get the number one company down 50 percent in a matter of months because everyone was just attacking but you know the CEO why I knew it
and funny your husband was buying it. I never owned it and I bought it on the on the collapse too
because I said this CEO his reaction mechanism was something textbook. Yes. He went to see all of his customers one on one 500. He went everywhere and he was on TV all the time. He looked horrible by the way didn't he? I mean he had some stuff going on but he had some stuff going on. But it showed that like this was a winner and this was this was a dude to bet on. Yes. He sort of that whole crisis like it felt like it put a fire 100 percent. And that is like under that number one thing
I look at I look at a lot of fundamentals when I'm looking at stocks but the number one thing
“that's really important is to get to know the leadership team. And I'm lucky I'm on TV and”
they reach out and we get to meet them but you can listen to conference calls. They do them all the time. You can read some of the transcripts. If you like watch these great leaders what makes them such great leaders because they can they can actually fix the problems when they do have problems. They can actually grow and they have great strategy and they have great execution that's really important but in the bad times it's how do they react and how do they respond and history is a guide
on that. So if you were to buy one cyber security stock would it be parallel to networks? Yes,
absolutely 100 percent because they well first informers it's half the price, half the multiple
of crowd strike. Crowd strike trades at a premium valuation for a good reason it's number one the best everything but but Palo Alto it's a little bit more attractive in terms of the valuation but I like what they're doing from a strategy point of view. In the last six months they've made 30 billion dollars worth of acquisitions and so what he's and team are trying to do is have more stuff that they can offer to their customers. Remember I said not every no no one company is
a one-stop shop in offering all the cyber needs for their customers so they're getting bigger and bigger
“and bigger and so not only did you have the secular total addressable market there you also I think”
it's by the way over two trillion dollars easily in the next four years not only have that but now you have something that the company is doing that you can watch to see how the synergies evolve over time which I think is really a lot of fun. I love that you're doing the undercover boss thing. I mean a lot of investors will say they also talk to their kids to see what's cool and what's coming up next to see what to buy but you're like talking to the CEO and figuring out what's the needs there
and it's it's a lot you do a little bit of a little bit of everything. I love what you just mentioned because I'm a firm firm believer in investing the way Peter Lynch the great Peter Lynch invested right Peter Lynch was the CEO I know you know from fidelity Magellan fund he actually his returns if did you know that his annualized returns up 29.5% from 1977 to 1990 when he was a PM beat Warren Buffett. Okay Peter is there right he's a rock star but he used to say invest in what you know
invest in what you see invest what you experience absolutely invest in what your kiddos are doing because they are super smart and you learn a lot but keep it simple and what's your daughter buying these are what is she think is cool so she started investing we gave her some money small money when
she was five and five and because I was always working nonstop my laptop was always open
Bloomberg was always on it was always red and green and she'd be like what's all that going on so we taught her she didn't really understand but I said what do you like well I like I like I like
Essay a lotter because I like like Mac I like Mac makeup I'm like because wha...
old she was wearing my Mac makeup so it's that it was she liked Nike she liked Google she liked
to search and so she liked Microsoft I mean there's a lot of things like it's just common sense
“and so I think what's also very interesting and she's a Gen Z so she's 19 I think it's really”
interesting is how influential the influencers are and I will tell you that they really listen and watch and buy and react to the influencers some are good some are not so good some need to agree with somebody don't but it is it's a big thing and I'll tell you what her friends are buying and I won't I won't let her they're buying crypto they would rather own crypto then stocks and when she told that to me I told her to stay at college because she wasn't allowed to come home I mean
that's like no you can't I mean you can own a little bit of crypto one percent one or two and you
know what I would rather own the exchange or exchanges because I don't know Coinbase yeah Coinbase I don't know what the price of Bitcoin is going to do on a day-to-day basis I don't think anybody does but I know an exchange needs a buyer and a seller and I know I have that and they're also broadening out into other currencies and other products as well so that's the way my chicken way of applying that but that that generation they're they're all in how's her portfolio
she's doing better than me she is super growth and just quality and I'm a little bit more growth at a reasonable price so I do own like the financials and the industrials and I love that stuff but
you know it's really paid to be the growth investor over the last decade no doubt waste management
for the way so what are you not buying or what are you staying away from crypto so crypto yeah yeah yeah credit I would say I think Bitcoin's way down though are you buying it is I'm holding I'm holding it's we'll talk we can talk SpaceX in a little bit it's like SpaceX Coinbase I'm holding for like putting it sat in it and forgetting it putting it away forever because I think they will accumulate over time they'll be volatile but yeah it is way down and it is very tempting
“the only thing about Coinbase it's just a volatile and any given day it could be up 5-10 percent”
and I don't want that to be ruling my portfolio and being in my head so it's a small position I kind of keep it there and yeah I mean if it were to continue to pull back I might add a little bit but I don't want to trade that I want to just I just want to be like more of a more of an investor well like your thesis the Coinbase is the infrastructure it's flat before I'm that all the coins have to use so I'm assuming that you don't have individual coins no I don't have
individual coins no bit coins no bit coins I know no I just have enough exposure with Coinbase because guess what it's going to trade with Bitcoin it's going to trade with any kind of crypto and it's a it's a risk on asset I mean I know people say it's a diversification it is but it's also risk on and in fact there's a high correlation between non-profitable tech and Bitcoin in terms of you look at a chart you love ETFs what about Bitcoin ETF absolutely
100% I mean is it you can own any one of them I think like BlackRock you can own you can JP Morgan you can own whatever one you want to own and I almost prefer an ETF for this the the viewers here because it's a little less volatile it won't call up 5 and 10% in a day like a Coinbase kind of thing but by the way I think the reason why crypto has done well in the past several years is because of the innovation with ETFs and people embracing it yeah more institutional money
yeah coming in versus a retail investor but you also ask me what else I would in it what I would I not don't I think consumer staples are super expensive given the the limited growth that you get I know that everybody knows Pepsi and Coke and McDonald's like PNG yeah those kind of names
“they're expensive for for what you get you need to own one or two of them in a portfolio”
for diversification purposes but I just think that there are better values elsewhere and I do think I might be wrong on this energy thing but energy stocks trade with the commodity and if believe my story of commodity prices coming down and oil prices coming down and likely to come down further it's going to be hard I think for them to outperform especially after they've had such a nice run could you own Exxon Chevron I own SLB Stormberg A sure but like right size it
it's it's a it's very it's talk about momentum it just follows the commodity even if you want to do the fundamentals yeah but what about alternative energy or what about nuclear if you're thinking about like if these this around AI you know my husband and I think a lot about what is lower in that stack hundred percent you need alternative nuclear types of energy I know there are two types you need uranium to power that and one hundred percent that's part of the but not the traditional energy
Companies they'll benefit too but we're talking about in terms of power we ha...
coal it's natural gas you're right it's renewables I think over the long haul it's going to be
“natural gas that wins because we have a ton of it we just don't have enough pipelines”
so part back to my food chain of okay AI and the companies that are spending all those companies
are spending that eight hundred billion dollars they're spending it on building out data centers
putting stuff inside a data centers upgrading the grid seventy five percent of our grid electric grid in this country is over twenty five years old has to get upgraded and that's also companies that are going to be building that out who and who's behind the like who we want to services is one is a big it's a great company and let me tell you about quantum services they had an analyst meeting a month ago and they're such a conservative company seventy percent of their customers are utility
companies right so they're building with the grid and they're doing all the infrastructure with the utility companies they said at their analyst day that they're total addressable market between
now in twenty thirty was nine hundred and sixty billion dollars they raised it to two point four
trillion this is between now and twenty thirty this is the most conservative I'm telling you I've known this company for years and years and years when I heard that I must fell off my chair happens to be a very big position for me but they are involved in all all the aspects in the data center in the grid and then also on the power so picker PWR it's great great story but listen sister give me a boring stock every single day all day every day twice on Sunday this is I mean
this whole sector so this whole theme it's quantum services GEVER NOVA GEVER NOVA actually is sold out in their power until twenty twenty eight sold out and they supply thirty percent of the global electricity in the world so they are a big big player the top three player so that's GEVER NOVA VIRTIVE VIRTIVE is a company that puts their inside the data center they make the cooling systems front and center from so you need you I don't know if you all know this but
the data center gets super hot and the chips won't work if it's hot so you need these air conditioners and that's when VIRTIVE does it's like the end-to-end solution and they also have services no one really quite does it and talk about management teams the executive chair is in general and by the name of Dave Cody Dave you probably know was the CEO of Honeywell for
15 years when he was the CEO of Honeywell for 15 years the stock was up 450 percent
he is a rock star when he went to vertive unlike I got to I have to own that somehow some way so to put it into context though I'm out of the cooling systems and the stuff that goes inside the data center is because again this is a huge thing too it's you if you bought if you want to build a one gigawatt data center you need 500 acres of land by law and you need the box
“okay that costs $3 billion you have to put stuff inside that box meaning the cooling system”
you're explaining to me like I'm five because I can only understand it that way but like you have to you need the list I want you need the cooling systems you need the transformers you need the wiring you need the semiconductor chips you need software all of that costs $40 billion so you're talking about one data center to build out costing over $40 billion so this is goes right back to where we started with these big tech companies why are they spending
$800 billion because it costs so much for just one data center and we have only 11,400 data centers in the world and we need 30,000 by the end of 2030 we're not going to get there it takes three years to build a data center too so your thesis is the downstream beneficiaries of AI are going to be the real picks and jubbles the winners of the AI boom yes so what else is so cyber security we have all the data center stuff in AC and yeah the food chain you know and the CEO
of Nvidia calls it the five layer cake it's the same thing right it's you know it's the modeling it's the the the energy it's it's the chips it's the coding it's all that and he so he calls it the five layer cake I call it the food chain I don't know whatever you want to call it it's a big theme and it's a big deal and it's not going away anytime so no cake is my favorite part of the food
“chain so I love it I think I think robotics is another a theme that is just an early innings”
I feel like it's far out it is early innings but I'll tell you companies are investing now for robotics I mean Amazon has a million robots and they believe over the next 10 years they're not going to have to hire 400,000 people because they're going to continue to build out robots
Humanoids you're right we are not there yet but I own this company rockwell a...
and the amount of progress that they're making because of the technology it's every year I see it
it's you know it's an enormous change an incremental change and I think you need three parts of robotics you need the brains bronze and you need batteries you need the brains because you need the
“intellect you need to build that stuff the bronze you have to build the motion and that stuff”
and then you need the batteries shoot we don't have enough power here we come again right so we have no power or we're short power so all of these things are all tied up together and I think as we get through some of these bottlenecks we will continue to see a dramatic change in this part in this theme now a lot of people are talking about that quantum computing is another theme that's far out that's 2029 2030 but I would also encourage your folks here today to
listen to the CEO of IBM that's the largest quantum computing company in the world they have 75
quantum computers that's more than any of their their competition combined and he basically
I didn't say this but he says on on these videos he said it's it's AI on steroids HSBC used quantum computing on their trading that their equity trading desk and their algorithms actually saw a 34% increase in productivity and an output and increase 34% it's kind of it's kind of wild that's insane so if you want exposure to quiet on steroids quantum so it would be IBM what else I mean honeywell just spun out
“their quantum company that I think is interesting the reason I like IBM is because these other”
companies they're not even earning anything right now and so they're very volatile you
could want to package or bundle if you want I just I think IBM is doing a great job in not only
in quantum computing but also in software and really fixing the company they're not a mainframe company anymore and that's the CEO who's done a really great job so I think you could pick and choose a couple of the smaller players but I don't even think it's really I don't think it's worth it because it's just so wild that's all or don't expect anything yeah next five years have some have some patience so just to be clear when you're mentioning these tickers and these names
you and I know you do so much research can you just like clarify when you suggest something how much are you understanding and digging and researching and you and your entire team oh it's it's it's a 24/7 thing it's the reason I do it though because it's so much fun and I learned so much every day it's like and I'm not going to be right on everything I mean if I get a 500 batting average that's a home run in my mind but I just love to learn but most of the
names that I talk about I own and I don't own any stock in my portfolio which is only 30 names in my portfolio it's very concentrated but I don't own any stock that I don't know the CEO and the bench so it goes back to that whole process of I can do all the fundamental digging in all
“kinds of homework but I have to feel comfortable with who's leading these companies and that's why”
I get to know them and I don't get to know them like personally some of them I do but others I just read about and others I just observe what they're what they've done historically and that's really important just so ubiquitous you mentioned your daughter and her friends are listening to crypto bros on TikTok and it's just not as regulated and there's so many people who can just jump on social media and suggest something oh yeah no I mean I think it's dangerous I think you're a
hundred percent right I would not recommend something that I wouldn't own or I don't own pretty much every name I just talked about I own and if I don't own it's either I'm watching it and wanting it's on my shortlist or it's I've owned it in the past or want to I just yeah I think you have to be very careful on on social media to to listen to to random people there are a lot of smart people on social media and so you just make your list I follow you thank you so much I mean
another darling of social media and you said you were avoiding some consumer staples because they're really expensive individual Bitcoin micro strategy is worse than in the pooper but you know when you look at something like that and you hear us talk about like by low sell high that's low I don't understand it's strategy do you I personally don't but when somebody's like oh well it's on sale oh can you explain the difference between on sale for a company like Palo Alto versus
a company like micro strategy like micro strategies I if I I've learned early on if I can't understand a stock or I can't explain it simplistically I can't own it because that just I don't
Have any confidence in myself maybe I'm just slow at understanding it but I d...
get the strategy of him leveraging and him borrowing and every day on you know Bitcoin goes down or crypto goes down and they're buying and they don't earn anything that's a problem see I want
to own companies that have earnings the earnings are the most important thing when investing when
you think about investing in general what is the growth rate of earnings why is it growing why is it important it's important because that's companies making profits and we will pay multiples of that
“if we think it's a sustainable profit generator a profit grower why I think it brings me back to”
total addressable market because not only do I think Palo Alto it's doing a great job on its own because they're making all these acquisitions and they're in a very strong position market share wise and they do have a good financial balance sheet and they do have earnings they're also part of this whole total addressable market that's an additional tailwind on top of this very strong company that's operating quite well and so that's different than micro strategies
I don't even really know what the strategy is it just seems complicated to me and it's expensive and I can't justify the valuation and that's important too to be careful what you're you know
what you're buying at what price price is always important so if you're new investor or you're
in your early innings of investing stick to the things which is now turning into have you heard this mangoes no so nerd that thing that's great Facebook meta it was it was dubbed thing before because yeah meta so vine Facebook Amazon Apple Netflix Google and now mangoes mangoes meta and thropic in video google open AI spacex obviously open AI and anthropic not public yet but in anticipation well that is so I have not heard of mangoes that is hilarious
very clever I mean I like look I like all of them some are going to win some are not going to win I happen to own SpaceX new position in the last couple of weeks because we know they just went public a couple weeks ago and this is the way I'm viewing it like I said on Coinbase I am buying a small position it's 2% it's a set it and forget it do you know how much Tesla was up when Elon Musk actually went to to the company in 2010 so if you invested $10,000 in Tesla at the IPO you would
have so you two point six two million yes right now when he 25,000 and you may think he's a little
nutty oh I think he's a little nutty nutty he is brilliant and he will make you money over the long term
“over the short term he doesn't manage to a quarter's earnings and so that's why he the stocks that he”
is involved in solar cities another one they they are very volatile and that's why I say put a position that you're comfortable with if it goes up 10% one day down 10% another day you don't stress about it so 2% is what I'm comfortable with that's what I do I'm putting it away and saying forget it because I think there's three ways they win they win as a hyperscaler right I mean they're on the AI side they are renting out compute to Google and Anthropic 2 billion
dollars each sorry 2 billion dollars a month from both of them a month go is they're paying SpaceX to use their compute and it who knows how long these contracts are going to go but it tells you that it's sophisticated enough and it's good enough and it's accessible so they they can win there not sure if they will but they could spare star link of course is they have 10 million customers that could get to 250 million customers by 2030 I mean the momentum is there as well
in star in star link anytime you go on an airplane and you have star link it's like a game changer and then of course you have space and they have a very low cost advantage over their competitors because every new renewable rockets so their cost per launch is expected to go from 14 million to something like 3 to 5 million per launch that is going to be so such an advantage so much lower than their peers and they have first mover advantage I don't know if they hit
“on one of these things I think I think they can hit on all three but if they hit on one of them I think”
the stock will be much higher what I don't believe just to be the case is that you're going to build data centers in the in the sky in the you know in the universe I just don't I think we're not there yet I think it's possible and anything's possible with Elon Musk but I think that's 10 15 years away that's my personal opinion I could be totally wrong but because people ask me well you're so bullish on the data center makers on earth how do you not get scared about space X and I just think
it's a time yeah but we got to get the party started we need compute so like go to the sea go to
The air go to the land right go everywhere right swing because it's going to ...
did you buy space X so I bought space X at I think it was 175 180 it was not it was not at the most recent low and it certainly wasn't at the super high what happens when I talk about a stock on TV I get restricted and so I was restricted on the day of the IPO because I happened to be on TV
“talking about it so I had to wait a couple of days I think this is like if this is going to be”
so much higher in so many years that I'm like okay forget it I know I'm going to be up and down on the position or whatnot but I don't do many of these kind of investments I will say Nicole though because I'd prefer like just traditional investing 101 you know look at the look at the the fundamentals market share look at balance sheet look at the valuation this one's hard to tell it's hard for me to tell you it's cheap it's not it's hard at giving give you a valuation
but I do believe sometimes you want to go with you know just the Peter Lynch thought process of yeah what do I see what are my watching what am I experiencing right here and now and I think it's something that like the AI revolution I think it's going to be something that we look back on and say there was a lot of money to be made well you mentioned a lot of the bull cases for space acts the other one is this government contract idea that there's huge space infrastructure
that's becoming increasingly more important to national security and so they have so many government contracts already in the pipe too they do and wouldn't it be interesting if the government actually took an interest in space exits at some point you think they will good well they what did they do with intel that was like the buy of a lifetime right I mean I don't know I wouldn't be surprised do you think it's going to combine with Tesla good possibility but but I don't I don't
“I don't see it near term but I think it's there's a good possibility I think a lot of people are”
speculating that to be the case I mean a lot of people are going to own space exits anyway through right but they are in the indexes right not SNP but yeah QQQ right and Russell I think also did it yeah and I think look they have to be profitable to be in the S&P 500 and I'm really glad the S&P didn't change their rules I hate it when companies or organizations change the goal posts during
the game so I'm glad that they didn't change their rules but look in the years time you never know
if they make money like I say I mean this this whole renting out compute if they sign up a couple of more customers I mean that that gap in their balance sheet goes gets gets narrowed down pretty quickly what do you say to people that are pissed that they bent the rules for SpaceX the the indexes that I was fear I'm furious about it I don't think it should change the rules so I can like wait and see um but that all being said it's small waiting right it's like it's it
like 40 basis points 20 basis points in terms of the waiting in these indexes it's not big as compared to Apple which is 7% of the waiting in the S&P 500 so what about the bear cases for SpaceX people are obviously they have so many feelings about Elon yeah they have a lot of feelings about the way this IPO is orchestrated and choreographed but what about this idea that it
could go to zero is that a possibility it's a possibility I mean if you never know what what
is what is he lined up doing in terms of what partnerships does he does he collaborate with what is he himself do in terms of his own his own wealth I mean you know he remember he sold a whole bunch of Tesla to take it on himself and then invest reinvest in different parts of the business so by the way talk about a robotics company that's Tesla 101 right there so you just don't know what
“he is going to do I think he's too brilliant to have this thing go to zero but by the way wasn't”
he on record saying I wasn't sure even a couple of years ago if this would be a zero so we'll have to see but also 20% of the stock comes up in the next couple months around the lockup and we saw Rivian stock when this happened when they're lock-up expired and a lot of insiders were selling the stock fell like 20% do you anticipate some short-term volatility when that happens when insiders are going to start selling I think it will definitely be volatile for sure and maybe that's when you know the you know your
viewers maybe that's when you take a look when it you know when once this starts go once it starts and see what the volatility is and use it as an opportunity I just kind of I just feel like
we're not going to be the first year of any IPO is always kind of a little rocky right and so
you've got to find the what is the price equilibrium and right out of the gate you just don't know but I just think like ignore it that's this is one I'm telling you I only have like two stocks in my 30 portfolio stock base that I would do this with I would not have a whole portfolio of
All these kinds of things because I could be really wrong but if I lose two p...
percent it's not the end of the world if it was a bigger position I had someone called to me the other
day who said I want to have 20 percent of my portfolio in SpaceX I said what are you nuts I mean
you could be the most brilliant person in the world in 10 years but I couldn't do it I couldn't I couldn't on a day-to-day basis feel comfortable well you're so good at explaining the concepts in simple plane English and what came up a lot as SpaceX was going public was this idea that the multiple was insane I know so for somebody who's listening and saying like okay it's a multiple of sales or it's a multiple of revenue or whatever and it's so so hi can you give the
comparison of how to think about that and and what the multiple why do Wall Street people talk about the multiple what should it be well because they don't have earnings you can't use PE
“price to earnings right which is my preferred way of looking at any company because that's what”
it is you know it's it's real so we do price to sales because sales are growing so rapidly what are you willing to pay for that rapid growth and it's projected that this company is going to
have 70 percent sales growth between now and 2030 not only that but they're expected to see double
their margins which goes back to the point of what I was saying earlier that their space business has such a cost advantage and it's the cost are going to come down margins go up and then eventually hopefully we're going to see some earnings I don't know when but so price to sales is the way people are looking at it also I've seen some of the parts valuations so you break out the AI piece and you break out starlink and you break out space anyway you look at it this thing is
expensive the best case scenario I can come off with was that it was at 40 40 time including anthropic and google and the compute 40 times price to sales like that's a that's a that's crazy just by comparison I thought it was 100 times if you include the new deals the two new deals okay
“but you're right 100% right it was 100 times and then if they that that's why these two deals are”
really pretty pretty important in my mind just by just by comparison and by by no means is this cheap Palo Alto going back is at 22 times 22 times sales that's not that's not cheap by the way to be it I think it should be I think I think Palo Alto is priced right it's not a screaming buy it's up 86% here today you don't want to chase it up here you wait for a pullback I was buying it at 14 times price to sales is 40 times cheap for SpaceX I don't know I can't tell you I don't want to
sit here and tell you I know every I don't think anybody really knows but I just think that the growth they're going to grow into the multiple as that's what you know they say when you're growing at 70% that's a big that's a nice number what people are willing to pay we're just going to have to deal with the volatility and see again what the price discovery is we don't have it yet
“there's no question but I don't want to worry about it I just want to set it forget it kind of”
ignore it have fun with it and then deal with my other 28 boring games that I can value and feel comfortable with so you're going to set it forget it look back in what five years ten years yeah I mean it's on our easily buying more I might buy more I mean the more we learn the more their strategy evolves by the way this is not just Elon Musk this is that whole team is the brilliant they really are very very sharp if you listen to them let's see how they execute too right and
let's see there might be new businesses we were valuing Tesla as a car company we're now valuing it on a robotics technology company and we may do the same for SpaceX so when we compare them multiple idea basically like decoded it just means it's very expensive compared to the fundamentals of what the company is doing so we often use Nvidia as an analog or you know a lot of media has talked about that do you think that's correct where it should be closer to that 20 times
or I mean well problem with Nvidia is a couple things number one there's no question about their growth not at all I mean they are growing at leaps and bounds I mean more than 70 they're it's
incredible what they've done so it's not too late to buy Nvidia Nvidia actually has done nothing
in the past six months believe it or not when semi-conductors other semi-conductors have done amazingly well we mentioned Intel I own Marvel Broadcom AMD there's so many other companies that have done so well and there's a couple things within Nvidia these great company because it hasn't done anything in the last six months it's actually trading at about 14 times forward estimates for a company that's going to grow 50% plus it's crazy cheap for what you're getting but you have more competition
now today than you did even six months ago particularly Amazon particularly Alphabet in
Terms of the chip space there's also the question of these custom chips that ...
making which are cheaper to make they don't have as much power but they're a lot cheaper so that the companies that are spending money on all this stuff they have options that's not to say that Nvidia is a bad company or that their product is inferior I just think there's a little more a competition and then the last point is everyone owns Nvidia and you rarely make money when everyone owns and everyone's on the same side of the boat I like as an investor to be a little
contrarian I don't need to be all by myself on the other side of the boat but the middle part of the
“boat is kind of like my sweet spot and that's how I made a lot of money with Broadcom because”
I was buying this five years ago when it 14 times earnings 4% dividend yield it was nuts today it's a heck of a lot more expensive but they have delivered in spades and we try to find different ways of playing it this whole AI food chain you could buy Nvidia on the whole food chain and forget the food chain because what you've made more money in the food chain because they were less popular and people didn't understand them as much in less owned so it is due late to buying
Nvidia you can buy Nvidia if you have a long term time horizon and you can get away with the
valuation you should feel comfortable valuation is always certainly supportive if you have the
growth and the story is not over we're not even wearing the third or fourth inning I think you could buy Nvidia I don't own Nvidia because I own all these other things but I think you could I just
“think you have to temper your expectations because it has been a phenomenal stock over the last five”
years so if somebody is like dang it I missed out but I don't know about that um again the valuation the growth seeing where we are in the in the revolution I think we're in the third inning how many innings we might even go even over time we might even go over time okay so we're in the first third of this game we're in the third all right let's just say that's we're in the third inning of AI revolution we're in the second inning of cybersecurity we're in the first inning in robotics
okay I love you a little bit of a lesson and my mom you'll be the chief sports officer of I know my very first I what I really wanted to do is be on TV I wanted to be on ESPN you'd be great
at it I want to I kind of took a detour and got it to the financial part of TV but it's fun never as
young as you're here today I'm going to start a petition so it's definitely for ESPN you'd be incredible so what other hot stocks that people are like damn I should have got this I should have would have could have micron you know whatever else is really buzzy sandis are these real talk
“I know is it too late to buy these uh I I don't I don't I don't think so I think I'd be careful”
as to what days on buying these things you get you get looks all the time this more especially semi conductors semi cap equipment I one of my biggest regrets I owned lamb research there a semi cap equipment company and I made a ton of money on it and then it went up another 200 percent on me right because because if you you can pick and choose the semi conductor company you want there's a lot of them but the semi conductor capital equipment companies they have all the
that's who their customers are are all of these semi conductor companies because the equipment companies make the stuff right and so lamb research applied materials the KLA those are names that are up on me in enormous amount of money but they are winners over the long term because that doesn't matter who we've been more like they've already run so much I know they're more to run I think there's more to run because they because they have all of these costs all of these
players are Nvidia broad calm marvel all of these companies need the the cap equipment companies and they are not believe it or not they're not that expensive because the earnings continue to go up so that does not mean that you run out and buy these names today you wait for a pullback
we're going to have one or two or three put them on your shopping list 20 percent below these levels
if if these stocks fall that's where I think you want to start a position same thing with micron we are short memory in this world and if you believe but we're in the third inning and we're short the pricing power of these companies is enormous so do you know that last quarter micron they make two kinds of memories DRAM and NAND DRAM their ASPs average selling price to their customers what was up 60 percent year over year and a NAND pricing was up 80 percent pricing power
is king I mean that is they are minting money equine and they signed 16 license agreements
Let us pass quarter valued at a hundred billion dollars which what was that m...
means that they are contracted to get a hundred billion dollars between now and 2028
22 billion of it this is for micron yeah I mean these aren't numbers that we just haven't seen so I do not own micron because I feel like I missed it for sure but it's absolutely on my radar screen and I happen to own other names that are that are fine too that are good and they've done really really well as well but that is certainly a name that they're a leader in the industry and we don't have enough of what they have what do you say to people who say Stephanie there's an
AI bubble it's gonna burst it's all gonna be 1999 again well with the internet we were building out the internet without knowing what the demand was we were laying dark fiber we had we didn't have contracts we didn't have backlog or or any of that we had interest we had indications of interest but we had a lot of double triple quadruple ordering going on and so there were winners and there were losers we happened to create a whole bunch of by the way jobs that didn't exist back then
because everyone asks me about AI taking over the world in terms of jobs I would say for the bubble
“talk on AI there is real demand that's why I care about the cap goes back to the cap ex how much”
are these companies spending they're spending and that number continues to go higher and higher and what I'm not happy about are these companies going to the debt markets to going to the equity markets to raise all this cash so that they can fund all of this but the numbers continue to go higher and it goes back to what the CEO Amazon said we're not gonna see the returns this year
but we've never seen anything like this so we're gonna continue to spend so that eventually
we do see returns that are double triple quadruple of what we would have done if we didn't spend because here's the deal what about the circular spending idea so what about the fact that they're just all fueling each other it's like a big incestuous it's very uncouth to say circle jerk but it feels like it's just like they're all spending on each other and so they're dropping each other up thick tishish. I think that the numbers if if where I'm gonna be wrong
is if they start to cut back on the cap ex and we're seeing just the opposite even last quarter almost all of them raise either raised money to to increase the cap ex or they had the free cash
“load to actually increase the cap ex they're spending on all different parts though that's why”
it's so important of listening to the picks and shovels companies the food chain because what they're saying is yes their orders are enormous I mean absolutely enormous but the backlogs are even bigger backlogs really hard to cancel orders really easy to cancel so we pay attention to backlogs and those those names that I mentioned are the picks and shovels companies that I mentioned a vertive GE for Nova quanta services eaten I didn't mention eaten rockwell this straw didn't
mention this straw all of these companies on average they saw 34% backlog growth year over year from these companies backlog is sticky or stuff it's contracts in hand and if I can just give you perspective because I've been covering industrials for 35 years on average backlogs grow 5% where 35% on average backlog versus orders just means what yeah so orders you can cancel backlog is contracted stuff so orders some in some instances like vertive they do have their firm their
orders are firm and he has insisted on that and the companies that need this stuff are now also insisting on they want guaranteed stuff backlog is guaranteed you know unless you have all I mean unless you have tremendous amount of double in triple ordering but at the backlog is different than orders orders you can just say forgot it you know I didn't get it didn't get filled you have you're committed backlog think about think about it that way you're committed to be buying that stuff
so you're not worried that Nvidia's getting money from Microsoft and then giving and then buying from Microsoft and then it's all sort of insist too much and propping each other I mean it's it's complicated for sure but they would it I just don't think that we've these are we're talking about billions of dollars you know I mean billions of dollars I don't think that they're
“be spending this amount of money if they didn't see this insatiable demand and I think we are seeing”
it again where I'm wrong is if we go from 800 billion and next year is 500 billion then I think
not necessarily wrong but this whole kind of one we want to call it a frenzy fine whatever then this whole thing kind of starts to unravel because it has it impacts so many different companies but I go back and I listen to what really these smart CEOs are saying and and then what other industries are saying too it's just it's not just one like the internet was just the internet
This is like the entire like economy almost you know absent a couple of secto...
there's no question that's but that is the biggest worry that I have is we got to continue to see
this spend and you know if we if we don't I'm gonna be wrong and you'll never have me back
“but if I'm right I think I will be right to a certain degree and look the stocks may not work”
they may get over owned and maybe they get expensive and maybe they take a pause and we see a rotation into some of these other sectors like we talked about but I think that this is something we haven't seen I don't want to say it's different this time because I hate that phrase but I do think it's something that it's it's remarkable just think about what it's meant in your life right and my life and as sure there's going to be disruptions from AI and certain industries but
we're going to have certain industries we don't even know exist and jobs that we don't even
“exist that are created well I think it's going to be the latter for sure and I cannot wait to”
have you back it's so weird like I miss you already I want you to come back and have more of a conversation because I could listen to you talk forever but we have to let you go so you can research more stocks to tell us next time we end our episodes as you do by asking all of our guests for a final tip that listeners can take straight to the bank so if somebody's listening today they're like oh my god that was so much alphabet soup you mentioned so many different
ticker symbols and companies if there was one ETF for them to buy what would it be well based on the themes I would do I would do hack for sure but I would more importantly want more diversification I really do strongly believe in the S&P 500 and the ETF and Van Guard is what we use when I was
22 years old and please start as soon as you can and it's never too late and the reason I say
the S&P 500 is because such a diverse set of companies you're going to get so much exposure by the way 40% of the S&P 500 is technology so you're going to get the growth aspect there but you're also going to get other sectors to to help keep you sleeping at night and hopefully
“7.7% on average total return is is going to continue I think it will I might even grow a little”
bit more but you'll never you will never be sorry in 5.10 15 years for putting money into the market today
never you never regret a workout you never regret an investment is it's not so not like semiconductors you're the semiconductor queen so not like socks s o x x or s o h no because they're 85% year to date and I would hate for your reviewers to you know it's so volatile you get a lot of semiconductor you get a lot of semiconductor in the S&P 500 you really do I have more confidence in hack longer term like 10 years out I have no question of a mind that those stocks are going to be
much much higher and you're going to see much more consolidation and that's the industry I think doesn't get enough respect everybody thinks well you know they they're going to get hit by you know AI and they're not going to get hit by AI we need cybersecurity companies because of AI that's really important.


