Kalshi Punishes MrBeast’s Editor for Insider Trading & Claude Used to Hack Mexico

in New York City. I don't have a lawn, let alone need fertilizer.

“That's why your ad needs the right audience, and LinkedIn ads can help.”

LinkedIn has 130 million decision makers, and you can reach the right ones for your business.

Target by job title, industry, company, the list goes on. And $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a $250 credit for the next one. Just go to LinkedIn.com/mbd. That's LinkedIn.com/mbd. Terms and conditions apply.

Good morning for Daily Show. I'm Neil Freyman. And I'm Barry. Today, you can exhale now, and Vita is doing just fine. And Calche finally tracks down on his side of Trayday.

Last Thursday, February 26, let's ride. Good morning. Just a heads up. Toby is out for the rest of the week at a wedding on the West Coast Classic Toby. So we are lucky to have Anne Barry, the host of Brumarkets, step in to be my news partner

and crime over the next two days, and it is great to have you. Thank you. We're matching green shirts. We are. We are.

Very cozy. A new hobby idea for you all, bird watching. Not only is it a great excuse to get out in nature, but it also may give your brain a boost, a new study published in a neuroscience journal Monday, found that expert bird watchers compared to novices showed alterations in their brains that could enhance cognition.

While the research doesn't conclude that birding prevents cognitive decline, it does suggest that the activity may support brain health as you get older, which is great news and because there are only so many crosswords that I can do.

“Oh, well, I love that and I just interest you, a word or the other one, right?”

And then you got sedoku. Well, this was really interesting because bird watching has sort of grown in popularity and there are a couple of interesting numbers coming out of this. The Canadian study of 58 adults showed that compared to novices, people were more dense in areas like attention and perception by getting involved in bird watching.

So I want more attention and perception. So I think this sounds like something I need to take up. Okay, let's head to Wall Street, where Nvidia is making an argument as the most successful business in the history of capitalism already the world's most valuable company in video posted quarterly earnings yesterday that have little precedent.

Total revenues spikes 73% from a year earlier to over $68 billion crushing projections.

Profits sort 94% to $43 billion, also crushing projections and gross margins rose to a staggering 75% despite fears of an AI bubble, the chip maker has continued to grow like a weed and make more money than God, which may or may not be CEO, Jensen Huang. While looking at 2025 and full Nvidia raked in over $100 billion in profits up from $4.4 billion just three years ago, looking ahead in video sees the good times rolling projecting revenue

this quarter to come in 77% higher than a year ago. And when Nvidia reports earnings, it's such a seismic event because it's not just about Nvidia, it's about confidence in the AI revolution more broadly, and recently that confidence has been shaken along two different vectors, one investors are worried that the historic spending on AI hardware, the kind Nvidia sells is not sustainable.

The other fear is that AI will be so successful that it wipes out large swaths of the market by upending the business models of software companies. So there's a lot riding on what Nvidia had to say yesterday afternoon, and just like a little, it came up clutch when the country needed it to. But this is so interesting, Nvidia wins no matter what, right, so this is I've been

all day looking at the markets, and the way you just described it is whether AI actually ends up knocking out whole bunches of the market or letting others sort at the end of the day. Nvidia is like the water in the oxygen to all of these people are going to go back to feed at the trough that's the Nvidia chip stacks, so they're up for a great time.

“I'm just, well, what's your day to see whether the market rewards these amazing results?”

Or does what it's done in the past, which is say we're so used to grace an amazing

thing from you in video now, you actually need to do even better. We're going to move the goal post. And that's been the very interesting thing about Nvidia probably over the past six months. If you look at its stock chart, it's pretty much sideways. It's barely budget.

I think it's up about five, six percent, and then it reported when I'm maybe calling the best quarter in the history of capitalism, and its stock has barely budged. What do you make of that? What why is Nvidia that had skyrocketed? That's showing such incredible growth, and it's stock had skyrocketed.

Since Chachype D came out in 2022, investors aren't rewarding it. I think it's like the overachieving child whose parents get used to it doing really well. And at some point says, how do you even do better? There's no more reward we can give you. There's no better that we need to raise the bar even more dramatically, and then you're in the

realm of the not feasible. So I think, unfortunately, this one has just got sort of the market scratching its head saying, where else can it go at evaluation that already feels kind of uncomfortable? It could be also some skepticism that the spending by what are known as hyperscalers,

Hyperscalers are those big tech AI companies that are spending so much on data centers and Nvidia hardware.

“Alpha that Amazon meta and Microsoft already this earnings season has said they will spend”

about $650 billion this year on capital expenditures, much of which is going to Nvidia.

That is up from $31 billion a decade ago. It's a spending spree that people are comparing to building the railroads or building out telecom infrastructure and building out the internet, things on that particular scale. And investors are just a bit skeptical that they can continue to keep spending. And these are Nvidia's biggest customers.

Maybe that's another reason why Nvidia stock isn't being rewarded like this. Well, we just see OpenAI say they're going to pass. We're a speculation that OpenAI may pay back some of it's spending. All that being set up I agree with that, but it's interesting. We only focus on those big four names.

There are lots of other Nvidia customers out there and there are actually other kinds of sectors and companies that complain that they can't get access to enough Nvidia chips, because they're being crowded out to your point by the hyperscalers. So I agree, I do think there is some skepticism there, but I just feel as though the demand for Nvidia chips, there are other pocket market doesn't talk about quite so loudly.

And now, whenever Jets and Juan gets on these earnings calls every wants to hear what he has to say, because he is at the center of the AI universe. And much of the talk in the market, as I'm sure you know, is about the software wipe out. Everyone, not everyone, but many people think that certain AI agents will come along. And up in the business models of DoorDash, of service now, of workday companies like that.

“Well, Jets and Juan got up there and said, I think the market's got it wrong.”

He thinks that AI agents are going to use these existing software tools that are that are already in existence, says that's the reason we also say agents are tool users. So he says, yeah, AI agents are going to come along. He's very bullish on AI agents. Obviously, but he says there are going to use the existing tools rather than completely wipe them out.

So yes, he says that people are going to continue to spend. We said demand is rising for our products exponentially at the same time. Don't worry about this software thing. That's that's mostly just a freak out, which many people have also agreed with. Moving on, facing backlash that it's not doing enough to combat insider trading.

Calshy has begun cracking down. And of course, Mr. Beast videos are involved. Yesterday, the Fascaring Prediction Market Platform said it was suspending an editor who works for Mr. Beast, the world's biggest YouTuber, find him and refer to federal authorities.

It is a watershed moment. This is the first time that Calshy has made public the results

of any of its investigations into insider trading. The editor, Ardem Kaptor, traded around $4,000 on markets related to Mr. Beast, according to Calshy. And despite placing bets with low odds, he had, quote, near perfect trading success, which set off alarm bells for the surveillance team.

Then, according to the company's head of enforcement, we investigated and found that the trader was employed as an editor for the streamer show, and likely had access to material, non-public information connected to his trading. Calshy booted another person too for insider trading. This one, a politician, Kyle Langford, was a Republican,

gubernatorial candidate who last year posted on X, that he used Calshy to bet on himself in the race, which Calshy says it's against its rules that bank candidates in a political campaign from making wages and markets related to their own elections. And Calshy is on the hot seat over market manipulation.

It's trying to show it takes us seriously. It does. It's interesting that there's this act that's trying to be past the moment stop inside a trading so that Congress members can't trade. I need to go back and look to see if they're also going to be banned from using prediction markets. Actually, there's a story about the gubernatorial candidate reminded me of that.

Well, it looks as though this is actually a good crackdown, and there's a little bit of a battle underway at the moment at their meal, which is who actually regulates prediction markets. You've got the CFTC trying to keep a hold on the oversight of this particular part of the market. Trying to hold on to its beef dim, and so the fact that Calshy is trying to self-regulate,

“I thought it was kind of interesting, because if you want to avoid being regulated by others,”

you've got to regulate yourself, and so this seems to be a step in that direction. Why that's the political battle done away. Well, it's also funny, is there's a pretty big Mr. Beast ecosystem on Calshy. Yes. You can wager on a lot of Mr. Beast stuff.

You can bet what he's going to say in his next video. There's a market on the number of subscribers that he's going to reach by the end of the year. You can actually bet on when he's going to get married. So somebody who's in his inner circle who's editing his videos probably knows exactly what he's going to say next year, and this has been a concern that's not just Mr. Beast related,

but goes across things like what Trump is going to say at the state of the union,

what bad bunnies first, sawing will be at the Super Bowl.

And it's interesting that you mentioned putting Calshy in the same breath as regular stock market, because that is what the executives at Calshy are trying to say. They say there's bad actors everywhere. There's insider trading in the stock market. We are being unfairly targeted for criticism, because maybe we're just the new kid on the block. They actually have 200 investigations into insider trading right now.

12, 12 of which are still ongoing, and we may see further crackdowns.

because there is a fight right now. There's a bunch of states that have sued Calshy. They wanted to go away. The federal government has protected them. The Trump administration has been very friendly to prediction markets. But there's a lot of swirling concern around Calshy.

We should mention there's another one out there, Pauli Market, which is probably known to be less intensive on their insider trading investigations. But it's interesting to see that these particular two enforcement actions, especially when it comes to Mr. Beast's editor. There's also a real money in here. There's one story last month we saw a trade

and made $400,000 in profit on Polly Market to your point. And that was because Bet was placed on the capture of the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before there was any public indication

“that would happen. 400 grand, just remember that is that someone's gain is somebody else's loss.”

Here, the real dollars. The only question I have Neil is how many bets are being placed on Calshy around the color of Neil Freyman's sweater? Or what pun he's going to use next or morning read daily? It could be there, I haven't checked. But either it's either going to be a dark green or an evening, you only have two options. Moving on, Claude, the chatbot from Anthropic, has a reputation for being the chill, safe company approved AI, you'd bring home to your mom.

But it's got a naughty streak. Yesterday, cybersecurity researchers reported that a hacker used Claude to break into Mexican government systems stealing off with 150 gigabytes of data,

including voter records, government employee credentials, and documents related to 195 million

taxpayer records. It's not the first time nor the last that AI will be deployed by bad actors to infiltrate cyber defenses and alarming development that keeps your IT department up at night. Here's how this went down according to Bloomberg. The hacker who is not to believe to be working for a state-back group wrote Spanish language prompts into Claude telling it it was an elite hacker

“and instructed it to find vulnerabilities and government systems and exploit them. Claude was not”

a total pushover and it's sometimes refused to comply with the hackers request due to guardrails that had been implemented. But the individual found a way to override those and ultimately was able to so-called jailbreak the AI so it did what the hacker wanted it to do. And it seems that with a little effort, cleverness and help from your neighborhood to AI chatbot hacking just got a whole lot easier. And also it looks like that these chatbots are helping each other. So there

was an amazing nugget in this story. When Claude came into problems or required additional

information or if anthropic was pushing back too much, Claude was pushing back too much. The hacker would go to open AI's chat GPT and say chat GPT gave me additional insights here and that included how to move latchally through the computer networks and figure out which credentials were needed to crack into certain systems. So basically when Claude didn't deliver chat GPT did. Well, it's nice to have friends to help you hack. But what this isn't an isolated incident,

there's been a number of other instances of people using chatbots to hack into systems. Just back in November, anthropic said it disrupted the first AI orchestrated cyber-espionage campaign. It accused Chinese state hackers of manipulating Claude to hack 30 global targets and some of those which were successful. Also this week feels like anthropics just been in the news a lot about perhaps, strange from its original mission. So anthropic was born because a bunch of open AI

employees said, we don't like the way this is going. We're going to create a much safer alternative and then they created anthropic in 2021. So safety has been core to anthropic since it's beginning. But it looks like it's rolling that back. The company said on Tuesday that it is softening, it's core safety policy because the AI market is too competitive. So previously, when a model was deemed too dangerous, it would not release it until it fixed that. But now it's saying it's not going

to do that because there's so much competition. And so, say if opening AI or XAI releases a competitor that could be better than Claude, they say that they're just going to continue

there going to release the model anyway. And they're basically citing a lack of federal AI

regulations as the reason why they're saying federal government just doesn't seem to care about this that much. And we are just going to follow their lead a little bit. So anthropics, certainly been rolling back at safety that announcement on Tuesday was a big one. Yeah, a huge one also tuned the context of anthropics being known as the player that's really pushed into BTB. We think of chat GPT as something that consumers use sort of all day every day

“whereas anthropic, I think part of the reason they've been able to penetrate that business base”

so much better is because they had this commitment to safety and this commitment to the data being protected once it went in there. So we'll see what the repercussions here are in terms of the take-up. That being said, big slew of anthropic announcements recently to your point, as you said, earlier Neil partnering with these software providers. We saw those stocks bumping back up because they really liked the idea that these plugins are coming. So we'll see what this actually does

in terms of demand for anthropics products, but I haven't spied a sense that it's actually particularly with stories like the hacking efficacy probably not going to go anywhere. Up next, why video gaming is in decline. Movement's not about numbers. It's about intention. I've been reading those inspirational

call times. Basically, daily essential movements that we could be more thoughtful about.

“Hoops, wearable tech helps with that. With it, you can understand what's going on in your body”

and make better decisions. Hoop helps build awareness and highlights patterns so you can show up with more presence and intention. Turn data into meaningful everyday impact. Learn more at join dot loop dot com slash brew daily. That's join dot loop dot com slash brew daily. Toby, do you know what advertisers care about more than anything? Don't tell me, don't tell me impact. No, Toby. Don't be ridiculous. Oh, you, you actually got that right. And Disney campaign

manager helps agencies and brands show up in a more impactful way during the live sports premieres and chemist moments audiences love. That way marketers can reach fans where they're most engaged across Disney plus Hulu and ESPN streaming platforms turn attention into action by building campaigns around the moments people talk about launch quickly, optimize easily and get the results you're looking for get started today at Disney campaign manager dot com

“Disney campaign manager dot com. Neil, I want to tell you about something. I personally love”

very much. Is it me, your good friend and co host? No, it's not my work friend and co host. It's spectrum business, which keeps businesses of all sizes connected seamlessly with fast reliable internet advanced Wi-Fi phone TV and mobile services all backed by 100% USB support. Spectrum business offers tailored connectivity solutions with packages built for your business budget. In fact, millions of business owners rely on spectrum business to keep them connected.

So, whether your business is big or small, visit Spectrum dot com slash business to learn more, that's Spectrum dot com slash business restrictions apply services not available in all areas. Welcome to Neil's numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the weeks news that

will make you even smarter than bird watching. My first number surprised me when I learned it and

it might surprise you too. Americans are spending less time video gaming than they used to,

“like even to below pre COVID levels. The researcher and investor Matthew Ball reported that”

surveys consistently show that the share of the US population that games has fallen by up to 4 percentage points since before the pandemic, which supercharged the activity. And this isn't just a US story, either video game playing has mostly stayed stagnant or declined across the 8 major developed markets in South Korea. For example, the share of the population that plays video games has fallen by 15 points compared to the 2017-2019 average. The decline is hitting all corners of the

industry too. Consider that in the US mobile game installs are at a 12 year low, while hours played on your phone has fallen considerably. What's going on? Ball argues that video games are quote under clear assault from novel forms of interactivity that emerged or scaled since 2019. In other words, there are other ways we found to entertain ourselves like sports betting, online gambling and only fans. Back in 2019, US spending on those three past times was about

1.25 billion combined. Today, it is 33 billion and video games appear to be losing the attention war. Yeah, it's an interesting video games, at least people are engaged in using them and they're losing share to sort of the more passive activity of scrolling. Let's also talk about TikTok, right? In the assault on the in the war for eyeballs, American spend just under 110 million daily hours on TikTok. That was in 2024. It's actually been up since then. So yeah, it looks as though

gaming replaced by more passive activity or on the flip side doing more in the betting arena. And there is some pockets of the industry that are growing. There's mainly one and it's

called Roblox. Roblox had 150 million daily users in the third quarter of 2025. It's quarterly

engagement right now is the is equivalent to steam, PlayStation, and Fortnite combined. And younger users, younger users. So they could they could stick with this platform for a long time. So video game industry and decline people are playing less except if you're Roblox, which is crushing it. Okay, for my next number, don't look now, but South Korea is having a baby bump considered the poster child for demographic crisis and population decline. South Korea recorded

its second straight year of rising fertility rates. And last year posted its biggest rise in bursts in almost two decades, up 6.8% from 2024. South Korea's government has tried everything to promote more kids, including expanding parental leave, housing subsidies, and giving people straight cash. But the reason for the baby bump may simply be timing. The people who are in the peak age for child bearing right now are known as the echo boomers, the kids of baby boomers

who were born between 1991 and 1995. And there's just more of them. Others say the echo boomer effect is overstated and point to other causes like improved attitudes around having kids, more children born outside of marriage, and a spike in marriages after the pandemic. More babies is certainly welcome in South Korea where the pension fund is projected to run out by 265 if current demographic trends hold. But they're still a long way to go. The total

is up to 0.8. It's the first time it's reached that mark in four years, but far below the

2.1 needed to keep up population stable. 21% of that population aged 65 or more nail to your point on the pressure on the pension system. But also the other thing that we don't talk about here is South Korea needs an immigration if that's not happening. They definitely need

“to get on top of the baby boom coming back. For my final number, have you all ever heard of Ube?”

If not, you will soon. It's absolutely blowing up on the U.S food scene. The bright purple social media friendly yam native to the Philippines appeared on three times as many U.S. restaurant menus in 2025 compared to 2021 according to Bloomberg. And once you start looking, you'll see Ube everywhere. Trader Joe's has an extensive lineup of Ube products like pancake mix and ice cream. Kings Hawaiian released in Ube, coconut dinner roll that flew off the shelves.

And Starbucks is coming out with an iced Ube coconut mochiato for a limited time in March. But the Ube boom is also putting strain on farmers in the Philippines. Exports of yams spiked 43% in the first nine months of last year, more than half of which are going to the United States, but it's been difficult to keep up with that demand. Ube is mostly a homegrown backyard crop, not some mass-produced thing, and it's typically

grown at a region that's vulnerable to typhoons. To prevent shortages, Bloomberg writes,

“the government has tripled its budget for handing out Ube cuttings to farmers,”

and is telling them to create more frozen and period products that can fetch higher prices. And what is your favorite way to eat Ube? Definitely the ice cream. So my mom's from the Philippines. So I've been eating Ube since I was like two years old. The stuff that's delicious, the bright purple is beautiful. It's absolutely fantastic. This spoke to me. I'm really excited

that this is happening. I've never had it actually. This trend is new to me. Maybe I don't

frequent Trader Joe's enough. But apparently the Trader Joe's is kind of quarter the market on Ube products, but you recommend Ube ice cream. Totally. And I'm bringing it in. We're going to eat some Ube pie together, and I'm going to introduce you to it's my honor. I would love that. And I don't want to bring the mood down, but it was talking to our producer Ray about this earlier. He's like, yeah, I don't like it that much. Oh, producer Ray, come on. Come on.

We're the program. Okay, let's bring to the finish with some final headlines. Boston just got two feet of snow. The Charles River is frozen over, and Duncan is out here selling a 48-ounce ice coffee bucket for y'all. The chain has been testing a 40-ounce iced coffee bucket at some of its locations in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. And Crazy New Englanders have been trekking in the dead of winter to find them. For some perspective, 48 ounces is twice the volume of a media

iced coffee and enough to fit 15 munchkins according to New York Times. With its ice coffee bucket challenge, Duncan appears to be trying to tap into a trend pioneered by independent cafes. Some of which began offering massive coffee buckets last year to feed a viral frenzy. One of those cafes, Dolce Vita in Tulsa, Oklahoma, said it's 34 ounce of lattes and coffees

accounted for more than 30 percent of total orders. And what is more offensive to you? The 48

ounces or the fact that it's iced coffee and February? Okay, nothing about Duncan can ever offend me. I love Duncan. Donuts. I get why America runs on Duncan. I love I would eat 50 munchkins in a heartbeat. I love it. It's weird to me that's iced coffee and February in Massachusetts in New Hampshire. That is that's bonkers. That's been on. I as someone I'm from Massachusetts. Yeah, congratulations. Yeah, it's a big honor. We love iced coffee all year round. And isn't

there that stat that Starbucks actually 70 percent of Starbucks's drinks are cold. People are drinking

“iced coffee all the time. And so I think maybe the iced coffee part is not that surprising. The”

48 ounce part is. I think people have sort of moderated not just their alcohol, but their caffeine intake. They're just looking for small doses of things. But maybe we are back to a world of caffeine maxing when it comes to people wanting these buckets. I think also, just like Uber, we didn't really mention it, but it's a social media thing. It's kind of go crazy for showing off their buckets. So if I ever go back home, I will absolutely actually, I think two of these

to the locations near near my home in Amherst Pass are the ones that have the bucket. So I'm going to go check that. Give me why I'd off to that. We're going to see about the pool. I don't drink as much coffee as you might expect. Okay, finally, if you've been sneaking around with your lover in hotel rooms and crave a getaway where you two can just be yourself, Airbnb just listed the famous cottage from Heated rivalry. Located on the shores of Ontario's Lake, Muscoca, over 120

miles north of Toronto, the cottage served as a safe haven for the hit shows two stick handling lovebirds, Shane Hollander and Elie Rosenoff, and now it can be yours for a night or three. Doesn't sound like a bad state either. The place has three beds, three baths, 400 feet of private waterfront with epic sunset views over the lake. And things will inevitably get steamy, thanks to a fancy radiant heating system that releases heat through the floor. It's going

for around $181 a night for a short time, but we'll probably get a lot more expensive once the promotional window ends. 181 bucks that's a steal. This thing's going to get completely overridden. There is no way that this is less than 300 bucks than a couple of weeks. So actually the dollar amount has some sort of symbolic connection to the show because it's in Canada, so it's in Canadian

Rosenoff and Hollander's jerseys. I'm getting the sense that you haven't seen the show.

“Your sense is dead. But I'm not seeing the show either. So how I know exactly what's going on,”

Toby talks about it a lot. People are talking about it. But I do want to point out that on Saturday night

Connor's story, who plays Elie Rosenoff is going to be hosting SNL and people are very excited

for that. They already came out the very funny video yesterday and he just seems like an actor who's absolutely blowing up now. So I'm sure a lot of people will be tuning in. Who are also interested in

this Airbnb are going to be tuning in to SNL on Saturday night. Yeah, I just want to congratulate you

and just rolling off the tune. The two-stick handling lovers, like a scene issue said that I was like, you're very articulate in your lives. I don't think anybody's having a better winter than Hawke from a Olympics to heat a rivalry. Hawkees just blown up. Okay, that is all the time we have.

“Thank you for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Thursday. And I believe you have”

another podcast to record later this afternoon. You just rolled your eyes on me. Brew market. So if you enjoyed what Anne had to say, definitely check out our investing show around five o'clock

“Eastern 430. It's perfect for your commute home from work. If you want to get in touch with us,”

send an email to [email protected] or DM us on Instagram @ambidaleshow. Let's roll the credits. Emily Miliron is our executive producer. Raymond Loo is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Paramake up is gone birding. Devon Emory is our president and our show is a production of Morning Grill. Right, Chase, say new we'll see you all tomorrow.