South China Sea: The Flashpoint No One’s Paying Attention To

But there's been some major developments in recent weeks that could prove a consequential

for the region and the globe. In this episode, we speak to a naval warfare expert about the latest strategic moves

“by China and other key players in the sea, and how it could impact us here in the US.”

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Free meals applied as a discount on the first box, new subscribers only varies by plant. Let's take a look at the timer, must order the third box that I made 31st, 2026. Joining us now is Brent Sadler, a Senior Research Fellow for Naval Warfare in Advanced Technology at the Heritage Foundation. Brent, thank you so much for coming on.

Oh, thank you for having me on your show again. So a lot of this has been going on under the radar as we sit at the top of the show. What is the situation now in the South China Sea? Yes, I mean, despite all of the attention that sucks up all the attention in the Persian Gulf or even in the Caribbean against the Venezuelan and the drug narco cartels out there,

there has been a steady and non-relenting pressure campaign by the Chinese Communist Party on its neighbors and the South China Sea. And again, a lot of people not surprised about Taiwan, but the real action is what's happening around Scarborough's show, the Philippine features, not really in Ireland. It's about 130 miles away from Luzon, the main island, and the north of the Philippines,

and effectively the Chinese have taken it over. And they have been setting up to build a land reclamation and another man-made base like they did back with a lot of shock in 2013 through 15, full of further to the South. But Scarborough's show was where it's at right now. Remind us back in 2013 and 2015.

“What was the response from the international community to these actions from China?”

Limited and very modest to say the least, and that was very counterproductive, because the Chinese started signaling in 2013 that they were going to do land reclamation, but no one in DC, most importantly, no one in DC took serious notice or to push back either diplomatically or even, you know, through the embassy. What, and our partners in the region, trying to take our cue from us, realize this was

the era of a rebalance to the Asia Pacific back in 2012, the big defense strategic guidance that came out on that. Our partners in the region were still seeing China as a partner, not as a threat. And so it was a very muddled diplomatic messaging, and it was very, you know, very weak response.

So the Chinese accelerated. They built up bases, even though they promised in the rose garden between Xi Jinping and the President Obama, that he wasn't going to do that. We know the Chinese that renegade on that, and they built very rapidly bases and places like fiery cross that is a massive airfield, missiles, radars, listening, equipment, etc.

to allow the Chinese to maintain a naval presence that bullies all their neighbors as they try to exercise, but they think it's their right to possess, not just simply access,

large. Here we are now, over a decade later, has the international community learned from what took place back in 2013 to 2015, are the actions from the U.S. and its allies different in the region? So the Chinese behavior has changed a little bit in the last year, because they're getting

much more forceful pushback.

They were getting it, even during the tail it started at the tail end of Trump's first

term. It carried through, and the Biden administration to be very, very honest, but it didn't elevate, but now with world events, the second term of president's Trump's administration,

“I think the Chinese have a different risk calculation.”

So you're seeing where in the past they would use repurposed fishing fleet vessels, the maritime militia, to do the lion share of the dirty work, it's see a backstop with their Chinese coast guard. You're starting to see increasingly than bringing in their naval vessels, and this is escalatory, and it is a change of tactic, but the biggest strategic change is really

to the Philippine government, because now they are videotaping, they're recording aggressively every interaction, they are not just responding, but they're actively probing and going out to what are their features, their islands, their islands that they own, to try to impose their sovereignty over their own land.

And so the Chinese are having to play defense for the first time in this maritime contest

that's been going on for 30 plus years, actually longer, but the last 30 years very intensely. So is it fair to say the situation between the Philippines and China is reaching a breaking

“point, as soon as they say the next few weeks or months, or would you say not really?”

I'm not sure I could say it's going to come to a head, but we are about to enter into another period of time where the tensions are going to ratchet up. In the summertime, the Chinese PLA, the Liberation Army, does massive exercises, joint fire, their air force, the rocket forces, their navy, out of the southern theater, and this is based out of the south China sea and high-nan island, major naval bases and air bases. And so as that masked naval activity

picks up, you can expect that there's going to be a reaction or an intent by basing to try to push the boundaries. This also would come in the tail end of a summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping in May, if that stays. So underlying whatever message they want to send in that summit, they would probably have a chance to do with a lot of military force in the south China sea. So breaking point, no, high tensions, big risk, yes.

Now just in general, for people who are not aware of the situation over there, why is this area so important, and also why is it so volatile? Yes, so a couple of things. One, the next major war that's probably going to involve the United States directly is going to be a fight over the future of Taiwan. And there's a lot of reasons why that is inexcapable if the Chinese decide to do it. Namely, there's 50-80,000 American citizens that will

start to be killed the first day that the Chinese go, you know, start kinetic operations

and bombing. So it'll become politically unavoidable. In order for that to happen successfully from the Chinese military planning perspective, it's not simply the control of the Taiwan straight. So also control of the southern approaches through the south China sea. In order to protect their vast southern coastline from American attack that could interact and basically overwhelm and destroy their invasion attempt from Taiwan. So the south China sea is a realm for military

conflict. But right now, in this new kind of cold war era that we're in, you've got a lot of fungibility. You've got allies, treaty ally, the Philippines, a mutual defense treaty that the United States has. So if the Chinese attack the Philippines were at war, we don't have that with the others, but Vietnam is kind of an important player. They've grown much closer to the United States as our interests pushing back on China and the south China sea aligned. The same is true

with Malaysia that needs to go out further for economic reasons for oil exploration. Their federal budget is dependent on those revenue streams. But the Chinese are styming it. So eventually the Malaysians know they've got to go into their, they so called nine dashed line if they're going to stay economically viable. And so they also see that they opportunity is pushing them or their interest is pushing them for a more forceful stand against the Chinese and Beijing's

taking note. So the tensions are picking up. I would say we're getting to a, not a, not a, not a

“breaking point, but we're going to have a question point, deciding point here in the summer, I think.”

And then as for Taiwan, again, remind our listeners why Taiwan is such a key target, an acquisition target for China. Yeah. So for the Chinese Communist Party, it's about legitimacy. To their people for ever since the Tiananmen Square massacre in June of 1989, they've shifted

your personal liberties and freedoms. And that bargain has been working until fairly recently, and Xi Jinping has been clamping down. So that gives them the other argument of legitimacy. Where the only ones that are going to be able to re-unify China and in this foreign domination that those are their words, not mine, because there's a lot that historically is incorrect in their narrative.

But to them, failing to unify or in the civil war with the Cuomontang, and basically forcefully

bring the Taiwan back into the fold, means the death of the Chinese Communist Party. It's arguable if that actually is what's going to happen, but that's their thinking. The other part of this is that with Taiwan as an exemplar of a Chinese democratic society that has a very vibrant free and open market, it's a huge market player with United States in the globe,

“it sends a signal that a communist China is not the only way forward for Chinese people.”

So it isn't many ways what Berlin was to the Soviet Union. Taiwan is too Beijing today. Then there's also the economic incentive of taking full control of Taiwan, correct? So a couple of things one is to be very careful about mirroring American values or what we would think.

We're trying to figure out and anticipate the Chinese Communist Party's behavior.

Prosperity for their people is not really the objective. It's party's survival and party dominance. And so if there are kind of mistakes ahead, or if there are people's quality of life deteriorates, as long as they can maintain party control, they don't care. It's a very cold, calculating communist system. And so we have to kind of judge and moderate our thinking on that.

“Economically, for the Beijing, the military cause, the economic cost is worth taking it to settle”

this civil war that's been unsettled since 1949 in their mind. Militarily, here's where it's very dangerous for Western interests. When the Chinese have Taiwan, mainland Chinese, if they were to do that, now they have unfettered access to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. They will then be encouraged because now they're defensive perimeter and they'll feel compelled

to start to press further out more directly. They're military, they're economic, they're political, diplomatic. It's already happening if you look at the Solomon Islands with the secret security pack a few years ago that was uncovered. That will then go into hyperdrive across the Pacific. Because the Chinese will view, okay, now we have to protect Taiwan.

“These Western powers are enemies. Where next do we need to worry about in the increase?”

It won't diminish. It will actually increase the likelihood of confrontation and the challenges to American and our Western alliance thinking. So it's a much bigger problem when dealing with this very committed communist world view. Final question. President Trump has made clear he's not going to be pushed around by other countries. He's been far more aggressive than we've seen with past presidents like Biden and Obama.

What do you expect to see from President Trump's administration over the course of the next few months? So the summit has my attention because the Chinese are trying to ensure that they meet minimal expectations. And if we go into that summit and don't hold firm, we could give them more than they deserve. That's more of my concern in the summit in the near term. And that's been not because of the Trump administration. It's been my experience

immigrant Republican administrations for many cycles going way back. The potential for lucrative trade deals near term gains without strategic thinking. I would say I'm encouraged because when you look and you connect the dots of Venezuela to Iran, to the assault on the dark shipping all over the world's Israeli Russian, and trying to put a clamp on the Ukraine more, that strategic thinking that's informing all of that sets of very strong context and framing to get a lot out of this summit

if we so choose to with China. And again, the Chinese are the ones that we have to deter. They're the ones that we need to avoid a war with because the cost of that is just so astronomical. So I'd imagine continued very explicit, easy to understand language. Some would say not diplomatic, but having been a military diplomat and having to translate more polite American English speaking

into language there where English is the second or third language. I will tell you that the

straight forwardness that you see and you hear is appreciated by many from friend and foe overseas because you clearly understand where the president is. Well, Trump's public negotiation approach is

very effective. Thank you so much for joining us. Illinois, thank you. I have a great day. That was Brent Sadler of the Heritage Foundation, and this has been a weekend edition of Morning Winner.