Cage Match Inside the White House

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Committed political pros whether you're running for office staffing and politician organizing your community or working in Communications at any level message box pro is built for you to learn more or sign up good at message box pro dot com Welcome to part tape America. I'm John Fabrow and I'm Alex Wagner two weeks in a row Baby, you know, I'm really glad when you said I want to do a special nicks focused episode of Todd that is what I said I was like who will even know where we're gonna be but it turns out very fortuitous happy to just talk about the nicks on this podcast things for inviting me John

Congratulations That was I had I had some excellent timing because I put the boys to bed and then I Went downstairs and I turned the game on at the beginning of the fourth quarter when the run started Watching sports the West Coast time not that I ever do because I had two of the young children But is the best it is the best it's you're so lucky

I had put my I let them stay up a little bit late and we saw the first quarter and it was like we can turn this off now

They were like my my this is eight-year-old started like kind of crying and he was like I hate the next

“And I said you need to manifest positivity. I put them to bed and then they he woke me up at seven o'clock”

I know I slept in and he was like mom. They won and then we watched Highlight I was slightly concerned that Trump had cursed them for the rest of the series But it turns out it's just about him actually physically being there true and also Smart nicks fans burned a bunch of sage in front of the garden yesterday because we know how to clear Bad vibrations clear the Trump stink out of him. Yeah. It's just it hangs in the air especially this weather

But listen, well, there we go. There we go. That's it. Thanks for joining us. Make sure to subscribe to potteys America We a lot to talk about on today's show. We're gonna talk about Trump saying We're on the verge of a deal with Iran for the 39th time since the war began a little over a hundred days ago Who knows this could be the big one? Well, also cover the president's latest inflation gas spoiler. He loves it And his attempt to quiet Republican fear over Bill Pulti by announcing his long-term pick for DNI

There's also new reporting that the knives are out in Trump land Which is perfectly illustrated by an explosive new story from Maggie Haverman and Jonathan Swan about how these morons bumble their way through the Epstein crisis and finally you will hear my conversation with our pal Ron Brownstein One of the best political analysts out there about the midterm state of play his take on the grand platinum saga The house map the Senate map and much more

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Tell my friends. What's that tell five friends? Tell five friends. I like that Thank you Alex. Why go for one? Don't don't clip your own wings All right, I want five friends from everyone here. We go All right, Alex. Stop me if you've heard this one before The ceasefire with a round broke down

Missile started flying again Trump threatened to bomb the shit out of the entire country and then at the last minute It announced with great fanfare that he's calling off the strikes because a deal is Finally at hand is this an episode from six weeks ago three weeks ago last week next week 10 weeks from now All of the above You know, John, I've I've come to the Chris Nolan theory of time, but it's a dimension

And so it's always happening

We're always at war and a deal is always imminent We're always the war with the it is omnipresent we live in the dimension of it. Yeah, we're never not About it will go on forever. It is been happening Yes, it is just it's we're gonna be talking about this for eternity like I look at it's like all right Let's talk about the latest almost deal with Iran and then we'll talk about the inflation gaff

And then we're off I

“I think I I I I've been thinking a lot about this and I wonder if it's time for the press to stop asking him anything about the war”

Because it's so It's like asking like perhaps a Mentally ill person about stock tips like there's no use in doing that They'll tell you some things. Now. I will say I will say he's pretty good at that because of all the insider information Which he trades off of

He's quite quite a depth of doing that So that the latest U.S. Strikes hit targets across Iran including apparently drinking water infrastructure Which would likely be a war crime and after Trump threatened to take Carg Island and assume quote total control of Iran's oil He backed down with the post claiming quote final points have been in both concept and great detail Approved by all parties involved and then listed 10 countries Iran was not one of them

As I mentioned CNN has tally this up for us. It's the at least the 39th time that Trump has claimed to deal as imminent And you know, he did take some questions on the deal in the oval But like you said it was all the same questions and all the same crazy answers We thought it was much more interesting to play a super cut from his his calling to Fox and friends This morning between when he threatened to destroy the country and he announced an almost deal

He was he was there to ostensibly discuss Iran, but that only barely happened here are some of the highlights I mean, I'd like to get a deal now Less than three or four weeks ago because you know, once you do this it's just I just think it's just go step further But I don't know the America has the appetite to do what I would really much before doing But we were in Vietnam 19 years

If it would me I would have had that war done in three months But we did great in 2020. It was a rig direction and you saw it in California very interesting if I could just have heard said all of a sudden There's oh we have a surprise Steve, he'll want oh, but Iran it's a rig direction But let's get back let's get back that was I just want to say to the public it's a rig direction We need to save America act, very it's got it. Okay, let's get back to Iran much simpler Iran is very good at publicity

But they're not good at fighting So I took a look and I must tell you if they Can't believe the press they're getting they can't even believe it and they told me they said amazing Well, we're doing in the papers. We're not doing so while they're negotiating with us to make a deal

It's like they did an editorial today about We're not hitting a part enough. I mean, it's just not hitting a part of that We dropped $250 million dollars worth of bombs on a blast night. You know, it's the whole thing is crazy

Part of the problem is that they read the fake news. I mean because Fox is great

But you know all the anchors on Fox have been fantastic from Sean the Jesse Laura I've been they've opened Great everybody every single anchor. It's been great. You guys have been amazing

“Excellent. Seems like he's locked in, huh? Dude. Okay. I'm like where do we even begin with this first of all?”

There's so many things to call attention to The fact that he had to in the middle of all of this go off on the 2020 election and Brian kill me It's like I shouldn't have brought that up I shouldn't have brought that up and he says Iran is my fault though. It's my fault. I took us off topic

He sounds like

“an old angry person who's not yet even stood up from bed”

You know, he has that kind of the the throaty congestion of someone who's just ranting from from from bed like And it's just obviously it's just association at this point just word salads none of it makes sense The fact that he keeps bringing up Vietnam It's like a comparison should not make any member of the American public feel assured But they have their hands on the wheel here that they got their arms around this thing. Well look at Vietnam

That took so long. Yeah, no dude. We don't want to do that again. Also his whole thing about yeah, you know I do what I want to do but the American people might I have the stomach for it like he's telling like he wants to do this big What he wants to keep going with the war? He wants to just he wants he wants more war harder war His mess dude, one point he's pressed to give his message to the Iranian people and Trump says and this is a quote

My message to the Iranian people is they're afraid because they have no guns and the other side has guns That's not a message to the Iranian people. I don't think is that it's not a message to the right every time someone's asked that this whole war though He confuses it feels like intentionally now the Iranian people with the regime and so everyone's like what about the Iranian people?

“And he's like they're running scared. That's what they're doing and it's like they some people are specifically mentioning the Iranian people and”

He of course does not give a shit about them even though that was You know that was one excuse for why we were doing this in the first place I also love the notion that the Iranian regime that mostaba of him and he who has not been seen in public since this began is

Calling Trump to be like it's amazing how well we're doing in the papers the papers

I look I grab the public New York Times here. I grabbed the post this morning you should have seen the wood on the post Amazing I'm getting amazing press They put the nicks on the back page that I was right there in the front And that was a great game Mr. President He also starts talking at some point about Tiananmen Square and how it takes a

So it starts the drivers of the tanks and Tiananmen Square who mowed down citizens at which point he's cut off and they're like we only have a Minute Mr. President they literally cut him off on Fox and friends because he's so adult

“Can I say those seriously John? I mean because you mentioned and I think very importantly”

He certainly wasn't being asked about this on the Fox and Friends broadcast They may have bombed water infrastructure which would be a war crime and

The story of whenever this ends or maybe it never ends because time is dimension but when it theoretically comes to a conclusion

The story of American war crimes in Iran will live with us as the as our legacy for decades and We on runaway country had talked to The retired master sergeant at the what is it called the civilian protection center of excellence Which was a department in the DOD which was set up to mitigate and prevent civilian deaths Like for example bombing a girl school or bombing water infrastructure and

Pete Higgseth wrote in and dismantled it effectively like civilian deaths are not beside the point I mean, I think terrorizing people Especially brown people the world over is the point and we I mean The this administration owns the civilian deaths and we don't have a good tally of them because there's so much Opacity with regards to this war even as it concerns American deaths and we have a free press

But at some point the numbers are gonna come out and Donald Trump will own every single one of those deaths a for a deal that Looks like it will be nothing on par with the JCPOA also One thing he said there and that clip that we played is you know, he's talking about the Wall Street Journal editorial board Saying that he's not bombing hard enough. He's not doing enough right because they're hawks over there He also calls the what he's like I know that you guys own them, but they're trash

He said to the fox people referring to Murdoch And

He's like what do you what do they want from me? We just dropped $250 million worth of bombs on them last night

So now he is bragging to the American people about using their tax dollars to drop bombs on Iran that hit water infrastructure that could potentially cause Civilian death So now he's telling people's like hey, what do you want for me? I spent your money killing people in Iran for no reason last night It's the first time we've also gotten any kind of price tag from him. I mean, it's so embarrassing that this is like

The bracket docio about killing civilians is the only way we get some transparency about the from this White House about what the

Or is this finally Charlie Brown's moment

It seems like the

“It's still just a memorandum of understanding so that's true Trump said that in the oval which means”

It's the sort of the same deal as before deal The Israelis are apparently surprised no and and they said they're not part of this deal at all So no matter what the deal is it's not it's not solving the conflict between Israel and Lebanon Trump said that the Iotola has agreed already Iran is not saying that There's an Iranian news agency said there's a high chance the green the agreement will be approved

So like you know maybe we're gonna get there But it feels like we're right back to if it does get approved what it is is is the end of the naval blockade Reopening of the street and then kicking all the nuclear issues down the road for more negotiations that I'm sure will not go anywhere else But I don't know and there's there's definitely gonna be some Sweating to the tune of I mean

Marco Rubio and the hills said they were not gonna trade sanctions relief for reopening the straight But in the hall Tuesday has like a breakdown of this in political today There's definitely ways that they can make sure money flows to Iran

Basically to fill back up the coffers and pay them for reopening pay them to reopen the straight

We are gonna buy any kind of resolution that happens here We may not know about it as American taxpayers, but it is certainly there is gonna be a shell game going on Inside the the bowels of the federal government to ensure that money goes to the Iranian regime because otherwise Why would they do any of this? No, of course, and what happens what will happen is some intrepid reporters will

Find out what the shell game is and report it in a in a great story and then someone will ask the way it has to fly out it And they'll basically say fuck you fake news and then everyone will go on to the next thing But but don't don't take it from us take it from Brian Kilmead who said Mr President you're like an anaconda

Squeezing the life that was out of the enemy slowies squeezing them to death

“He said it like four times. Yeah, he was really happy with his analogy and he just he was like, but did you hear the anaconda?”

Yeah, I'm really trying to make a have chopping it yeah Before we move on, what did you make if his rant about the California election? Did you did you realize that Steve Hilton won? Because Donald Trump complained about Spencer Pratt losing Yeah, what are you saying about Spencer Pratt? He was like the kid got shafted and he got shafted But then I said something I said something and now

Now we got Steve Hilton now. He made it through Yeah, it was happening to Steve Hilton too, but now I mean, it's it's good that someone's got their eyes on California We guys we know how you operate and it's a it's a complicated, you know con, right? You think oh well the gubernatorial race matters more But no what this is is about singular and discreet races that are stolen for no apparent reason But just to throw you off the cent

Yes, it's about it's about the LA mayor the incumbent who much Who wanted to face Spencer Pratt much more and she wanted to face a progressive challenger and yet Did her best to rig the election so that she could get that progressive challenger and not Spencer Pratt That is that was the double cross of a double cross John untangle that cat's cradle buddy But like can I just say yeah the the election fraud and going back to 2020 is like so much more

Animates this dude than actually Iran I mean he's both incompetent and incoherent on Iran But he's also bored of it like he doesn't really have like he would much rather He wants to talk about the same America Act he wants to talk about raw power and the stealing of elections and Getting his election deniers, you know that getting having them act with a full force of the federal government

“That's what really gets us guy up in the morning. Yes, as as you can tell from the tone in his voice”

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Well, deal or no deal with Iran. It's looking like it may be too late for Trump to turn the economy around before the midterms And per usual he's making it abundantly clear that he doesn't care new inflation data from Trump's own Department of Labor shows that that prices rose and may To a three-year high for the third straight month with energy prices up 24% from a year ago Data on wholesale inflation release Thursday morning put that measure at its highest since late 2022

Trump of course has delivered an epic run of gaffes on the topic of how much people's financial struggles are weighing on him

“Here's a few highlights to jog your memory. Do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections?”

I hope so. I mean, I think so it could be it could be or the same or maybe a little bit higher I look today. It's like at 102 and That's a very small price to pay for Getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged a fortabilities a hoax That was started with Democrats how long will Americans continue to see these high gas prices? Well, they're not very high

I don't think about Americans financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about what thing We could not let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all. I don't care about the midterm. So could happen last night That was the prelude to the midterm. Well, good news We have a new contender for the crown

Here's what Trump said on Wednesday and response to a question about the latest inflation data

You're a servicester president about the latest inflation number which came out this morning

“Could that be a no, I love it with the numbers. What's right?”

You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why? I love the inflation. He loves the inflation I wish they could pan to other faces in the room. You know, that's good. Yeah, so much I just saw someone in the pool just go to Susie Wiles in space. I love the inflation. I love the inflation. I mean this is The downside John of having a malignant narcissist in office like they can't summon empathy when empathy is the pre-recquisite

from staving off the the political fallout from stopping the bleeding here like The war is so catastrophicly out of Trump's hands to a certain degree because he refuses to engage into diplomacy and doesn't really give a shit and is also an idiot But like if he's going to try and manage the political reality that he and his part of your facing You got to start the sentence with empathy and and I feel your pain and I know this economy's bad

And it's tough to be a working-class American but X Y and Z about Iran and the stability of the globe or whatever But he is constitutionally unable to summon to even pretend not only he constitutionally Unable to pretend to be empathetic he's the opposite he's digging the knife in further Bill Clinton's message was I feel your pain Donald Trump's message is I cause your pain and I'm fucking glad

I do and tough shit. That's me. I cause your pain you and your dumb cars You and your dumb desire to put food on the table don't talk to me about health care

I need another million for my ballroom now for my money. I still think the raining champ is I don't care

No, I love the inflation It's funny because he uses the article in front of it, right? I love the inflation so that makes it a little funnier But well, you know he says it's actually the full quote is so good. You know what I really love I love the inflation you could argue right like he's like well hold it. He's teased it up He's like I'm about to you know what I really love

The inflation Like it's so sadistic

“It's honestly I don't think about American financial situations is part of a bigger question and I'm not excusing it at all”

I think it like it was a disaster is quote, but this is psychotic this is someone who's like

You like the pain how but a little it's always dangerous to do this, but I was trying to think of like what what

It was he actually trying to do there and I think when he in his in his Adults very old mind He was thinking You know what this data it's gonna be great because as soon as the war is over

This inflation's gonna come right down and then I'm gonna take all this credit for inflation falling So I love the inflat like I think it's a little bit like still doesn't make sense It doesn't no, of course not of course not like because he's talking about ongoing inflation And so it doesn't well he doesn't know he also doesn't know what inflation is really

“Yes, that's the other way. Can I just say also I don't move light as a petroleum engineer”

But I will for this podcast. Yes, thank you. I try and come. I try and come prepared

Like the gas prices are not going down even if the straight-of-war moves opens back up tomorrow no, like This is bakes This is where we're The shit I didn't even know I the Washington Post is talking about the reality of these like ships getting through

Back through the straight they're like even the hundreds of fully loaded tankers that have Eidled in the straight since last February will not be able to quickly move their cargo Vessels are now so coated with barnacles that teams of divers will need to be dispatched to clean them I didn't know that this this is not just gonna be An issue V issue in the midterms. This is going to be an issue in for JD events

And in the Republican primary and whoever decides to run against him from outside the administration I mean, this is like by by by by by act by 2028 It won't it maybe it won't be hopefully it won't be as much of an issue, but like 2027 when the primaries are happening Yeah, 100% you're so right to say that that is like such a you're so smart about this But that is so true like because the I mean again, I'm not a petroleum engineer, but the refineries and the

Production facilities have taken offline and it takes months to get them back up and running and like if the oil Supplies I also didn't know this if oil supplies drop low enough Then it breaks down the if there if there's not actually oil running through the pipeline it can break down the production systems So like if they don't resolve this in the next several weeks There's like a catastrophic supply side issue where the infrastructure starts breaking down and that's

Well like fixing all that it's going to take forget about the fucking travel season. We're talking about holiday plans Thanksgiving Christmas like Again, I'm not rooting for any of this I didn't say that I don't know why I'm saying again I'm not a politician, but this is a fucked up situation and yet I will and not and yet the incompetence and the refusal to acknowledge reality here is

Makes you think they really want to lose that there's something to again there just it's it's self-flagulation politically speaking Here's the other challenge and I know geopolitical expert, but if they Come to a deal where it's just about Opening the straight for money and for ending the naval blockade and then they go on to Negotiate the nuclear issue which is going to be tricky to say the least and they don't include Israel and the deal

Then as we get into the fall And trump has his elections and we have our elections here net Niyaho has his elections in Israel Like as long as Israel continues to be a war with Lebanon and And fire in you know firing at Hezbollah and Hezbollah's firing rockets in Israel and and Iran doesn't want to let those Rockets go unanswered and then Iran gets involved like that

We're not bringing peace to the Middle East with them with a memo of understanding

“So I think that and there's a risk there both for in the midterms and in the presidential primaries that the Middle East is now”

Like permanently in this state of I mean it's there's always been a lot of conflict in the Middle East but like this latest conflict continues

As a sort of like in a low-boil I guess in the best case scenario low-boil but like and they're gonna have to deal with it They're gonna have to deal with the fallout this war for years It is this is what I mean by time as a dimension the war is ongoing the war never ends

That oil and gas executives have been warning the White House that as you said that gas prices are likely to spike

So they're hearing this from the oil executives themselves. This is not like This is not just some just us talking about it And then Politico has a story on Wednesday with the headline the die has been cast Trump allies fear. It's too late to reverse economic woes I also think there was a funny quote that I just saw from John Cornan who is liberated now He spoke to the New York Times and he said he said this about Donald Trump

He's going to have the most miserable two years of his life in the last two years of his term

“I think because I think November is going to be a disaster”

You know what I mean oh fuck like I know what is that what he what's gonna be miserable? I mean

Miserable things to Democrats who have backbones and certainly not to Republicans who might actually stand up to him

I mean John Cornan has no reason to continue to enable the agenda of this mad man and yet Given the opportunity to break with him hasn't I mean I this just such cold comfort when you hear the guys that are on their way out the door suddenly sort of develop a moral compass It's such bullshit and by the way they haven't delivered on anything There have been some pretty big ticket issues that they could have done something about in the last week and they've chosen not to so like

Call me when your your your backbones made of actual like bone matter and not What am I even saying? John Cornan

What the fuck ever what the fuck ever is I say I know I agree with everything you said and then I also love here in quotes like that

So it's you know to get a little bit of both I get mad because I'm like why where have you been but also? Yeah, I I think I think what he said is right I hope so

“Well, and I think that there's a ring you know you should be dragging all of these at every time in administration”

official goes up to the hill a fairy gets her wings every time in American administration official goes to the the hill and has to testify under real questioning they prove themselves to be absolute clowns and someone ends up losing their job like just look at the you know Look at the the track record of Pam Bondi and Kristi know and you know Tulsi Gabbard like so the one Democrats control Congress and I think there's a likelihood that's both houses like

There's gonna be some real investigation into the absolute I'm not gonna say I mean the amorality the potential priming and the deep corruption of this Administration and they're gonna have to answer for it all of it and then and then they're gonna continue fighting with each other Which we here is happening right now Apparently Trump Trump is not happy about any of this and it's putting real strain on the

“Support of workplace culture that he has tried so hard to build”

Here's a maga operative close to the White House talking to playbook this morning Trump is quote Increasingly frustrated with everyone from his own team to the Senate. He's pissed and people are not recognizing the level of Pist that he is and here's another White House ally talking about Trump staff quote knives are out in some capacity This person said I mean people are stabbing people like it's chaos the chaos is like creeping back Sounds like a phone please to work

No good benefit. I mean Great great real the ladder is steep but you can climb it I don't I mean The knives are out like the if you thought Should we be surprised that this the most incompetent in corrupt White House in American history

Is beset by infighting and backstabbing absolutely not I guess what's marginally interesting to me about that is Those quotes are choice but that it hasn't spilled out as much. I'm setting aside like bun genome gate and all that That infighting hasn't spilled out in the sort of real criminology of this White House the way that it did in Trump One point oh given that things are going so much worse for Trump and he's so much more adult and Obviously less I mean maybe he's asleep more so that offers a reprieve and people can you know unruffled their feathers

But it's it's interesting to me that there hasn't been as much of a revolving door and sort of leaked Backstabbing sort of anecdotes coming out of this White House the way there was in Trump won I don't know what that owes to maybe it's Susie Wiles but it sure still doesn't sound like a good place to work I mean nothing is once you've been to the crooked media ahead quarters The virus very high very high

um my guess on this is that the percentage of like diehard loyalists is much higher in the And so all the people who might have had a conscience or wanted to speak out or thought things were going to fire They're all gone now and so it's just the hard core true believers and so if you're starting to get knives out among those people

That's when you know things are combustible and I would say

“You know and I'm sure we'll talk about this later when we talk about the slush fund”

There is the carrot on the stick of personal enrichment in a way that is like it's an almost an explicit promise Like if you're in this White House and you know Pam Bondi was doing stock trades They all have sort of various honeypods that they're dipping into There is that will keep you there in your seat maybe a little bit longer because you're making You have side hustles in a way that that was not an option or that will be ahead and discover that maybe

In Trump 1.0 there is a reason to stay longer perhaps than you would I mean you know personal personal what is it personalized bourbon doesn't just grow on trees john and if you're cash Patel being FBI director you know membership has its perks sure does so

Trump is of course pissed that Republicans keep defying him and

That's like one of the things he's really mad about and it looks like Republican sort of displeasure with him picking Bill Pulti for acting d and I as you and I talked about last week Has led to Trump announcing his long-term pick for d and I and it's that's U.S. attorney and former SEC chair J Clayton so that got announced today on Thursday

Presumably because enough Republicans said Fuck no we're not dealing with the bill Pulti is a bridge too far and also if you go ahead with bill Pulti as a permanent DNI director even a temporary DNI which some of them said absolutely not about That even if they do that then what they were going to do is hold up 702 or the reauthorization of 702 which is what gives the federal government warrantless spy powers

“Got to make sure the government has warrantless spy powers, right?”

That is a again, that is a bipartisan push But anyway, so now the question is does this do it for for Congress now that they've got and also What do you think about J Clayton? Okay, so two things one as I understand that in our cracker jack fact checking team can probably Disabuse me of this if it's incorrect but Pulti

Remains I think the times is reporting the current plan is for Pulti to continue to serve as acting director until Clayton is confirmed by the Senate. Yes, and he once again, there was another story about apparently he called Tulsi Gabbard bill Pulti and was like I know you said you're leaving next month or whatever, but you're out now. I'm starting and she's like what the fuck She's like the president should tell me that and then she called the president and he was like

Well, I get what what do you want your last day to be and so now it's gonna be I think in a week we're gonna have yeah Well, that's because you know as he has you know the clock is running and these you know Tish James mortgage fraud documents don't just find themselves. John he has a mental skill. He has a special skill. Well I mean he's in there to be fafing around in classified material to try and try and drum up Reasons why elections have been stolen or Democrats are corrupt or whatever the fuck it is

But I don't like the idea of bill Pulti being anywhere near The Office of National Intelligence like that is Setting aside jaclate and like that is alarming and that is every reason why

Democrats they should first of all Senate Republicans like John Cornean who or you know intent on giving the president

Keeping him in line They they got the wool pulled over their eyes on the slush fund and know we're talking about that coming up But they shouldn't get their wool the wool pulled over their eyes on bill Pulti like that man needs to be locked out of the intelligence infrastructure and Get get a restraining order basically

Because even two weeks on the job for him is too many and if that means holding up

“FISA reauthorization until and unless that happens then that's what should happen like he is a danger to democracy”

This is basically what that's basically what I haven't seen other Democrats yet But Mark Warner who's ranking member on Intel said that Warner was like this is fine Like we wish we could have got here earlier, but there's no way where we're where we're Reauthorizing FISA unless we get assurances that there's no bill Pulti at all Like bill Pulti needs to be extradited to a different country and get nowhere near a like a passport in office

I will say I mean Clayton over saw a lot of the review of the Epstein documents Yeah, he was the one I think his off his prosecutors brought the case against Nicholas Maduro, which was you know Namely the reason the job went in and seized Maduro He's very capable of doing the president's bidding and I think that's probably what one him favor

He also in recent days has been raising alarms about fraud in California and the vote counts. So like I noticed that Yeah, he said he said I'm not saying there's fraud but the laws the way they're written in California

Totally, I mean that's and that's a prerequisite for any, but like I don't know There's a part of me the things okay, maybe Clayton gets in there and he proves himself to be more of a bull work against Trump's most lawless impulses or maybe he becomes more of a student like Todd Blanche was Kind of respected like white you know white shoe law firm kind of guy and has turned out to be like the architect There were national nightmare. So I'm a little worried. I'm worried about anybody that meets Trump standards or

Substandards for any of these positions. I like the Jim Himes someone I you know and Mark Warner People Democrats who have like very good reputations on this are signing off on him and saying he's good That's reassuring but you know, I worry something happens to you when you walk into the Trump administration

“You have to check your morals and your brain at the door”

Especially if you're someone who wants the job. Yeah, that's a that's a red flag You should no one in their right mind should want this also one promotion. Yeah Idiot acid administration understand there's a legislative branch that like needs to Confirm this but like why did he nominate this guy as the house is out and the Senate's out like this is nothing Nothing's gonna happen till I think June 23rd so Pfizer authorization is gonna expire almost no matter what even if the candidate is more to the

Liking of the upper chamber Yeah, and again, is it some kind of a scheme or is it just typical incompetence? It could be Probably probably Probably a competent Pots of America is brought to you by stamps.com

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Or you can use code cricket 50 a checkout that's 50% off your first order at Sundays for dogs dot com slash cricket 50 Sundays for dogs dot com slash cricket 50 or use code cricket 50 at checkout On the slush fund that you mentioned uh the Atlantic serif it's Patrick who broke those stories about cash Patel drinking on the job has new reporting that Administration officials are quietly telling allies that quote plans for some form of payout

Remain on track so we've talked about this to every that you know Blanche said it's we're not moving forward with it But then Republicans In Congress blocked any provision in the ice funding bill that would have killed it for good And then Trump talks about how much he loves it still and he loves the slush fund and sure enough

It sounds like from this reporting and and serif talk to quite a few officials current and former in the Justice Department in Congress and the Trump Administration elsewhere

Who said that basically there the plan could be that

Anyone who wants a payout from the slush fund or from what used to be the slush fund would just sue the government Because that's who you'd sue for that and then the federal government the DOJ will just settle and settle for an amount of money

Even if the courts are like because they wouldn't take that case to court because the court would be like well, that's fucking crazy You're on your your on video Almost murdering a cop so no we're not going to pay you any money or or find in favor of you and they'll say well We don't have to go to court because the DOJ will settle with us. Yeah. I mean it's it's not an adversarial Law suit therefore it would be thrown out in court, but with a true story of this administration as

Obviously corrupt as the ballrooms and the Reflecting pool contracts and all that shit is the true story of corruption is what they're doing behind closed doors inside the guts of the federal government And I will just plug runaway country one more time because this week

We talk to pro public a reporter Robert Fetterachie who's been breaking amazing stories including the way in which the Trump kids are

Dipping their hands in the deep coffers at the Department of Defense and you know making 10x investments on Venture capital funds or rire earth mineral startups or drone contractors There there is a lot of cash floating around in the American federal government and they have figured out a way to tap that maple tree if you will And the slush fund is is exemplary of the opacity Once people stop once it once these kind of issues stopping a duty-cated publicly in courts or you know politically

And it's just a kind of behind the scenes process a settlement fund at the DOJ that hush hush You can tap if you have friends at the DOJ that's where the the the most brazen corruption happens and I have every reason to believe That they intend on I mean Sarah's reporting yes, but it's also Todd Blanch refused to write down

Like he wouldn't submit a written written statement saying the slush fund is outlawed like their

Behavior in and around the cancellation of the slush fund was so transparent It was clear that they were gonna try and resurrect it in some fashion and the the statements in the piece I think she quotes Tom Tillis who's like he has grown vocal and his criticism of the administration as he heads towards retirement and Indicated he may not vote to confirm Blanch unless the fund is truly dead G you fucking think Tom Why are you even alive? What are you doing Bill Cassidy? What is the point of you?

“I think I said this last time on we are on the podcast. What is the point of you Bill Cassidy?”

Like how cock can you be to this Mad man and his stuages When is enough enough?

Apparently there there is no limit and

I do think that what you just mentioned about Blanch that is one leverage point here is Don't confirm Blanch Unless you know they they put it in a court filing right you got to you can't just say it anymore if they like or and also don't confirm Blanch because He helped with the Epstein cover up and I just saw there was breaking news that a group of Epstein survivors You know announced public opposition to blanches attorney general nomination like I do think that's the kind of fight you can pick

That actually is you know gets more attention than just we don't want Todd Blanch because

“Todd Blanch sucks right like we have like you have some good examples. I think on the slush fund too”

I would make like this is an extreme example the tells the whole story of the Trump administration and If I were Democrats I would hammer it every single day from now into the midterms if they win They have a secret plan to take your money and give it to criminals who beat cops and abuse children Yeah, that's that because those are a lot of the james that's itself somehow somehow so many of the January six convicts are also have either gone on To commit child abuse or had in the past so that's just that's interesting

But yeah, these are the people that they want to give your money to if they win and this is one area too Where there's a lot of things that Trump's doing where if Democrats take Congress unfortunately we're not gonna be able to do anything until We have a Democratic president, so everyone's gonna have to you know keep fighting And we're not gonna be able to pass legislation because Trump's still president, but Everything where you are just talking about

“Happening behind closed doors happening in secret with the slush fund with the other stuff Democrats take Congress”

They're gonna be able to like shine a light on all of that and make sure that it doesn't happen a lot of at least and New to the bus or make sure it doesn't happen of slush ones a perfect example of that and so I would be saying that all through the fall like you you you Electro-publicans and they are going to Donald Trump is going to take your money and use it to pay out criminals criminals who beat cops John there's such jibronies though like they probably can't even pull it off in secret like they have the quotes true

That is totally a woodward junior who's an associate attorney general who signed off on the slush fund and He responds we're on it to a post by Lindsey Graham that suggested victims of the Weaponization fund could still be compensated through other means it's like you're not supposed to say that dude He then deleted the post. They're so dumb. They are so dumb and and the in the criminals who we're going to

Yeah, he was of themselves rolling around on beds of money like demi moron in decent proposal

“Yeah, like videos that they took of themselves breaking into the capital and trying to you know”

Exactly, so speaking of knives out in Trump world Let's talk about the explosive story in the times about just how badly the administration fucked up the entire Epstein saga the story's actually an excerpt from Maggie Haberman in Jonathan so on's forthcoming new book regime change and it includes some

Pretty incredible details and anecdotes that involve Trump officials screaming at each other and just generally acting like morons

What are some of your favorite bits? Oh God. I mean, do I have to talk about abused nipples or will you talk about that? You I really don't want to talk. I had we're still gonna have to tackle it Tommy and I did a lot of nipple talk responding to this on YouTube I don't make a YouTube Sorry, we don't do a lot of public nipple talk. Yeah. Right. Okay. Good. Good. We did we did we off with this

“Yesterday on the Pods of America YouTube, but that's that's why that's why I want to hear that. Well, that's why you should be a subscriber, huh?”

Exactly. That's a great place to

Okay, what we're gonna begin. Let's do a table of use nipples. Maybe we won't even get to it and we'll drive people to the subscription only YouTube

Rapid response I think just the one of the things that grabbed me initially was the idea that they're sitting in the room. Trump isn't there and it's like the Cracker Jack 18 to figure out what to do about the Epstein's scandal and it's like Susie Wells David Warrington. Find Caroline Levitt Steven Chung Pam Bondi, Cash Patel

This is like I'm trying to think is it like a gang of like Rasputans or Yaga? Like what's the appropriate character delineation for this group of malicious idiots? But anyway, then I of course my I focused a lot in the JD Vance of it all because in these inside Maggie and Jonathan have done great reporting and they did another similar sort of piece about how America decided to go to war which it also involves a group of

lot of JD Vance malicious idiots. Yeah, and it's clear that JD Vance is a source for some of this like in some parts of this he comes across as like the only clear thinker and understands that Epstein is a major problem for Trump and he needs to do something about it and they need to be aggressive and you know, he needs to he presses for the administration to release all the files and even the unsubstantiated allegations and anecdotes but then he also has like the most dumb-fuck ideas ever like having

suggesting that Tucker Carlson go and interview Glenn Maxwell like somehow that's going to solve their problems which would only spin it into the stratosphere and is like asking a six year old to go eat a whole bunch of cotton candy and then take the tea cups ride like it's all sensory overload.

“Can you even imagine what that conversation would be like? I can't. I don't know. What did you think?”

Also, well, so I had a couple of like big thoughts on the whole thing, big picture thoughts. One is that the people in the administration who most understand like what really drives and angers the macabase, your J.D. advances, your Dan Bungino's, they may be sources for the story that that could be likely but clearly like what's awesome about this is that they spoke up and are trying to stop this and trying to fix it and yet they are going to be tarnished forever

by not having achieved any of what they set out to achieve. So it's not like no one in the macabase is going to be like reading this and thinking like, oh, you know, J.D. vans are guy on the inside. He tried his best. Did you eat Maggie and Jonathan's TikTok? Come on. Like no one's going to think that. Yeah, so J.D. vans is like, I have a great idea. We'll have Tucker interview Galane Maskswell and then that was like, that's kind of crazy and then Todd

Blanch is like, I'll interview Galane Maskswell and then the White House Council floats giving her a pardon and then the rest of the room strongly disagrees and then Stephen Chung says quote, "Partying Maxwell, a trafficker of young girls would create a huge PR problem." No fucking shit, huh? Wow. Good thing you're in this job. You're a break-eye. But also not even a gesture. I know. To words the morality. The morality here.

Not a word they understand. The ethics never ever come into debate. It is just about spin.

It is just about minimizing the drama for the Trump administration. It is nothing about the victims and survivors who went through this hell. Like it's so naked. Not that it should surprise anybody, but really it's astounding. And then J.D. vans is like, then they thought when they were coming

original plan to have Todd Blanche go on Joe Rogan to talk about this and then J.D. is like, well, how about I go instead of Todd Blanche? And I can take a few questions about this, but because it's me, the vice president and not Todd Blanche, he'll have to ask about other stuff like the administration's progress on helping working people and the tax cuts and the bill. Like, well, if you listen to Joe Rogan and then of course Joe Rogan was like, I'm only taking J.D. vans and not

Todd Blanche because who the fuck has Todd Blanche? And so and then it never goes anywhere, but I did

like that little anecdote just because J.D. clearly has some really the mind of a communication strategist. You know, definitely want to hear about how we're helping working families and how we're cutting the social safety net to help those working families. Also, Pam Bondi like released her fake dummy Epstein files without any consultation with the White House. And this is a small thing, small thing, but she was left out on some of the emails about the memo. And the reason is is because

it said, Bondi rarely used her justice department email and was not on the chain where the group worked on the memo. The attorney general rarely uses rarely used her justice department email.

“Remember 206 there? Why is there some irony in that that I'm missing? No, no, it's like we've always”

we've always cared a lot about it. It's not like she's dealing with classified information.

Opsack here. And so and then Dan Bungino screams at Pam Bondi, yells at Susie Wiles, storms out of meetings. He said to Pam Bondi, you fuck this thing up from the start, the way you've been talking about this, the dumb fucking charade, but the Epstein files, the vehr on my desk nonsense, all the promises to the folks out there. So that was fun. Then threatened to quit. Bungino definitely a source. Also, this, I like this part of a

privately Bungino seed. In conversations with confidence, he lamented with the job had cost him. Millions of dollars in podcast revenue. Family time. His audience. We've just sandwiched between the millions and podcasts. Yeah, I love I'm sorry. Millions. Yeah, no, I've left to spend more time with my audience. So you're just like, okay, no, it's good to know where your kids stand. Now they now they know

for sure. We should know. You're like your downloads in your YouTube subscribers. Cool. Before we move on to from the from this, we should at least talk about the nipple gate, because otherwise, people are going to think that we're weird, that we didn't, we just threw it out there and then didn't actually explain it. Yeah, we don't want them to think we're perverts. No, right. So that's the president. That was the president. So when they looked through all the emails

and all the files, they found allegations from a woman named Sarah Ransom. And she claimed that she knew a girl in Epstein's sex trafficking ring named Jen, who said she had sex with Trump. Ransom also claimed that Jen had told her that Trump had a prediliction for nipples and that he had aggressively flicked and sucked hers. She wrote that she had seen evidence when she shared a bathroom with Jen, quote, they looked incredibly painful as they were red and swollen.

“And I remember whinsing when I looked at them, she wrote, whoo. Thank you for taking that one for”

the team, dude. Yeah, no, I was like, I'm going to have to do this because I'm a woman, but you really thank you for doing me that solid. So of course, you know, unsubstantiated, but there was, we hurt, we didn't hear this exact story, but like this story had been out there

and then the White House has tried to say that because she had basically rescinded other

allegations because she said she was afraid for her life that maybe she's not a reliable source. And so the other things weren't true, she took it back and so there's still some confusion around there, but anyway, the point is this story is why they didn't make the searchable database for all the files and left some out of there, which also ended up fucking them because obviously people knew they were withholding some of the files. Damn, if you do, damn, if you don't.

There's like the fact that we now live in a universe where these kind of stories are ones about the president of the United States where we're talking about the document that connected Trump to the claim about abused nipples was among the material that came out.

“I also, like, that's what we're, we now have to talk about abused nipples in the context of the”

president of the United States. And then I also like, the JD Vance is like, Trump would be okay if you released the nipple related documents. Put it out, get it out there. It's gonna be better, it's gonna be better to get it all out there. I'm using nipples, it's nothing to the, it's nothing compared to the other abuse. And the Susie Wells is like, hard no, hard no, JD, not letting nipple gate get out there.

Obviously, like, the learned nature of that story and the description makes it, like that,

that is an allegation, the Donald Trump was involved with Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking

of underage girls, right? And so now we have, like, and we're just all like, oh, well, that's a, that's a wild story. It's like, no, no, no, the press. The allegation, right? It's, it's, and it's like, the one person in the White House who did not want to deal with the Epstein files did not want to deal with the strategy around transparency and what was to be released and what wasn't was Donald Trump. And it's like, hmm.

And he, and he, and he, and he, and he, and he, and he says privately to mark Marjorative of Green in the piece. Oh, it's because I don't want it really, because it could really hurt some of my friends, like, yeah, including his best friend. Yeah, including his best friend, and then we, yes,

I mean, there are a lot of, listen, we're just asking questions, John.

Yeah, I mean, look, it's, it's all out there. It's all out there. One other data point on why Trump might not be in a great mood. I know you saw the post story saying that the Washington Post story is saying that his last medical checkup, Trump was seen by 22 different medical specialists. I did not read this whole story, but I know you wanted to, uh, that's all there is. Have you ever seen 22 doctors? The last time he was at the at Walter Reed, he was seen by

a 14 specialists 11 before 22 doctors seems like a lot. Now, you could say a Biden saw 20.

“I think, according to a Korean John pair at the his last year in office. But Biden also wasn't”

covering his hands in, like, Maybelline concealer on the, on the daily, didn't have a rash creeping up his neck. Wasn't falling asleep all the time at any hour. And as, you know, addled as Biden seemed he, he, I don't think he approached the incoherence of Trump and certainly not with the same stakes, like we're in the middle of a war and the global economies in a tailspin. There's, like, food shortages happening around the world. People in the Philippines can't go to work

five days a week because there's not enough fuel. I mean, it's like, anyway, I think we should all be talking. Thank you for including this in the rundown John, because I do think we should all be talking a lot more about his fitness for office. Like, it's kind of crazy to me that the, the, the jibrony who fell asleep at the nicks game gets a pass for any of it. Like, it is, he increasingly shows no signs of competence in office. And the American public deserve to have more transparency

about his health. I do agree. I will also say, though, if, if Donald Trump was, uh, turned out to be in a hundred percent tip top shape, um, not fit for office. Don't think it would be improving his

“performance, uh, 1 percent, 2 percent, no percent. I think that he, I think if he had, if he is,”

if he was like, physical specimen, whatever his age is, about between 80 years old this weekend, if he's a physical specimen, uh, if he had the, if he had the, uh, the constitution of a 40 year old, he would still be as bad of a president as he is right now. Respect, I agree. I concur. But it is expired. It is fucking weird. It would be good to know if he's dying. Um, speaking of this weekend, uh, we'd be remiss if we didn't discuss the massive sporting event bringing Americans together

in a celebration of our shared purpose and values, the UFC sponsored cage match, the Donald Trump is staging on the White House lawn for his 80th birthday on Sunday, uh, a group called public integrity project is suing to try to stop the event, not sure they'll succeed. According to the AP, um, the government attorneys revealed and legal filings that the UFC and other private

groups have already spent $60 million on the event. That is the government, uh, saying that

they did not say how much the federal government has sheld out, but wrote that seven different agencies are involved and have, quote, allocated significant resources and manpower. Most of this is, uh, you know, UFC is footing the bill for most of this, uh, and various sponsors. But, um, I don't know, you have seven different government agencies involved. That's that's going to be it's going to be directing some some time and energy and resources that could be going to the

business of the people I suppose. Again, I point you to the real griff that's happening is inside the guts of the federal government. Like, there will be an accounting for it at some point, but this, we should assume the very worst about what they're doing and the way they are reappropriating resources

“to serve Donald Trump's massive ego. The only thing I can hold out hope for, John, is first of all,”

um, I believe the cage matches on Sunday. Is that right? Williams, Orange Saturday. I'm looking at the forecast for Washington, D.C. 92 degrees and thunderstorms. I know I saw that. I saw that. Because when I thought it was going, I was, I was saying it was going to be that hot. It was a chance of thunder storms. I don't know if the chance is increased, but it's a 55% chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. You know, I don't want to, I don't want to say anything that's going

one day in Chicago, it's supposed to rain heavily. Yes, but is there an outdoor cage match happening? Not yet. I've read that I'm going to wear off. David Axelrod versus Jackaloo.

“Oh, have you seen the pictures of the of the octagon?”

Yes, dude, it looks like six flags. It's so bad. Honestly, I believe you were like, mom, that's AI. You got tricked. And if it wasn't on the White House line, it'd be like, that looks pretty cool. And I'm not like a UFC fan, but like, well, it's pretty cool. But I'm like, this is on the south line of the White House. It's also extremely funny and just talk about the symbolism. Uh, they built a like an 800 foot octagon cage right next to the rubble of

the Eastway. Yeah, exactly. John, the really awesome happening at the weighons are happening at the Lincoln Memorial. No, I looked into this. The, is it canceled? The, no, the weighons are so this was this, the, the, the organization that was filing the lawsuit got in trouble for this because they put it in the filing, too. But the press conference is being held at the Lincoln Memorial and the weighons are happening at the ellipse. Oh, there you go. So there you go. Love the ellipse for all important things.

I don't know. I, I am not a fan of this, but it is the country. I wanted this president and some people in this country will be served by this gruesome spectacle, and perhaps they will enjoy it, or perhaps mother nature will have the last laugh and shoot down bolts of lightning to the south line of the White House, preventing the cage match from happening on Donald Trump's birthday.

“The thing that, honestly, the only thing that the story that has bothered me the most about this is”

the, the hot troops, only story that, um, for all the, the, all the service members that are

gotten invited, that have to pay first of all, they have to pay their own way to get there. And then

they have to meet a certain, like, weight requirement and one defense official told CNN that, uh, they wanted to make sure they pick people who are going to look good on television. Because this is so much you go. When you install, um, men's grooming expert as the Secretary of Defense, this is a kind of stuff that you get. I hear, I wish he was just doing TikTok videos about, um, how to keep salt and pepper hair, looking salt and pepper.

But it's dead. But last, he's running a war in a run. Yeah. Good stuff. When we come back, you'll hear my conversation with CNN's Ron Brownstein, uh, we will talk about the Senate map, the House map, and all kinds of other good stuff. Pots of America is brought to by Walmart. You know, we talk a lot about finding a job, but what about building a career? Walmart is actually making that happen for their associates by

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consulting product for people working at every level of politics. Subscribers get weekly strategy

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community of smart, committed, political pros. Whether you're running for office, staffing and politician, organizing your community or working in communications at any level, message box pro is built for you, to learn more or sign up good at messagebox pro dot com. Ron Branson, welcome back to Plot State of America. Hey, good to be with you, John. So since you're one of the smartest political analysts out there,

wanted to check in, get your thoughts on the the primaries we've had and the midterms ahead of us. Maybe we can start big picture. Where are we right now? A little less than five months till the midterms. How does this political environment compare to where we were in 2018, which was the last midterm when Democrats faced an unpopular Donald Trump and did quite well? That is a really good place to I think the the right point of comparison. And I think this election

to me is just shaping up as the classic collision between the irresistible force and the movable object and both of them both the irresistible force and the movable object are getting

with the economy. You know, if you go back to 2018 in the exit poll, Trump's approval writing was

45 percent. It is not going to be 45 percent and I'll likely go to an election day this year.

“I mean it may not be as low as it is now in the high thirties, but you know, I think it best”

it's going to be in the low 40. So Trump is probably going to be more on popular today than he was on election day in 2018. Second, you know, in the 2018 exit poll, two thirds of voters described the economy in positive terms, even as Democrats were winning 40 plus house seats. It's probably going to be two thirds describing it in negative terms this time. So I think, you know, if you think of those kind of attitudes as the motor that drives the wave, there's every reason to believe

that the Democratic, now the Democratic overall Democratic performance will be even better, I think. Then the wave behind them has even stronger than it was in 2018. I will put one caveat on that in a minute,

but but so like the wave looks to me like it could be very high. Democrats won the popular

vote by eight and a half points in 2018 when Trump was at 45. Could they win the popular vote

“by more if he's at 41 or 42 and two thirds of the country is dissatisfied with the economy?”

I think that's possible. Now, the other side of the equation is the removal object, which is that to a greater extent than in 2018, this election is being fought out on Republican terrain, right? In 2018, you had what about two dozen house Republicans and districts that voted for Clinton two years earlier. Now, before the red district and you only had three and even kind of more broadly, in 2018, you still had the remnants of all of these house Republicans who were holding on in

suburban white color districts outside of the south, even in the south, I guess a couple, mostly outside of the south, that had been voting Democratic at the presidential level since Bill Clinton. And Democrats really cleaned them out in 2018, three quarters of the house seats, the Democrats won in 2018, had more white college graduates than the national average. It was kind of the book end. I

“look at 2018 as the book end to 2010 and 2010, the Republicans cleaned out the last”

blue dog Democrats who were surviving in heavily blue collar rural districts that had been voting Republican for 20, 30 years and they kind of wiped all of them out and then Democrats in 2018 did the same with the kind of suburban in the 90s that used to call gypsy math Republicans. So, as a result, there really aren't that many more of those white collar seats left to win in 2026. There are a few. There's Mike Lawler, there's Tom King Jr, there's Don Bacon,

seat, there's Brian Fitzpatrick, but most of the seats at Democrats are targeting this year and the house in very distinct counterpoint to 2018 have more non-college whites than the national average. And of course, that is a real challenge. I mean, you look at districts in Ohio and Iowa and Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that is a big chunk of what Democrats are trying to win back and most of those seats are more heavily white blue collar than the national average.

At the same story in the Senate, by the way, eight of the ten seats that both sides consider the most competitive in the Senate. I wrote about this a few months ago. I have more blue collar whites than the national average. And, you know, if you kind of look at it by presidential vote, you have Maine, and as we've talked about before, let me just take one step back. Senate results and presidential vote are just much more correlated than when even you got started in this, much less

me. You know, there are 25 states that voted three times for Donald Trump. Republicans now have all 50 of their Senate seats, which obviously makes it tough. I mean, you've got a seating 50 seats at the start. You know, it's a pretty narrow pathway. There are 19 states that voted three times against Trump. Democrats have 37 of their 38 with Susan Collins as the last exception. And then there are six states that have flipped back and forth at any time in the three Trump races and Democrats

have 10 of their 12 Senate seats. And that is very much the way I look at the Senate. The job for

the Democrats is first of all the Pete Susan Collins to get rid of the last Republican left

in the 30 among the 38 in the states, the vote of three times against Trump. They've got a defend two seats in the flip states, which is Georgia and Michigan. But ultimately, they have to break into, but not only in the near term, but in the long term, because it's obviously not, you know, it's not a not a plausible strategy. It's give 50 seats away at the start. They have to break back into the Trump three times state. So what do you got? You have North Carolina,

which you only won narrowly. But after that, every other state, they have to win in the Senate Trump won by double digits two years ago, which is not not easy. So that's probably in order, you know, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, right? And if you don't win main,

talk about it at some point. If you don't convert Maine, you've got to win three

Senate seats as they've Trump won by double digits two years ago. And that's asking a lot. So overall, I would say Democrats, the conditions are more favorable to Democrats than in 2018, with the exception that you've had the Biden presidency in the middle. And that definitely took, you know,

“put a dent in the Democratic image. That matters. I think the party outside of the White House,”

their image matters less than the performance of the president in the midterm. But nonetheless, it's there. Conditions should be overall better for Democrats, but the Republicans have built stronger defenses, both in terms of the inherent nature of the, of the playing field, and also the gerrymandering that's happened. Yeah, let's some, that's a very good summary of where we are right now. So thank you. Let's, let's dive into Maine. That was my next question anyway, because, you know,

we had the primary this week. Also, as you mentioned, like you, you've been sounding the alarm about the electoral risk Democrats are taking with Graham Platner. And since everyone's heard enough of my, um, not quite as worried view, um, I want to, I want folks to hear a good smart counter, you want to give them the full worried view. Look, Susan Collins, as I say, is an anomaly or unicorn, whatever you want to call her. As I said, she is the only Republican left in the 19 states

that voted three times against Trump 37 to one. She's the one. Um, in Trump's first term,

she was the only Republican senator or challenger, according to the exit polls, who won in a state when more people disapprove than approved of his performance as president. She was also the only Republican Senate incumbent or challenger, uh, to hold their Democratic opponent to less than 89% of the people who disapprove to Trump. Um, Sarah Gideon in 2020, only one 71% of Trump disapprovers. Every other Democratic Senate candidate during the first Trump term, one at least 89% of

Trump disapprovers, you know, and that relationship is not getting weaker generally, uh, J Jones and Virginia, one 89% of Trump disapprovers, uh, uh, Cheryl and Spamberger, one 93 94% of Trump disapprovers. There was a poll from the University of Massachusetts at low, uh, even before the latest rounds of revelations about sexting and, um, uh, the New York Times story about his relationship with former partners that found Platinum winning 74% of Trump disapprovers in May. That is Susan

Collins' superpower. She is able to get to a greater extent than any Republican anywhere. She is able to get any other Republican anywhere. She's able to get voters to disapprove of Trump

“to vote for her, especially older women. And the key to her, why did she win in 2020 in a state”

where Trump's disapproval on the exit poll was 58% and obviously Biden won the state by, I think nine nine points. The reason is because she ran really far ahead of Trump among older white women. Both in the exit poll and the AP vote cast are two major sources of, you know, voter behavior at the state level. Um, Collins, uh, a giddy and ran 15 points behind Biden among women 45 plus. Now, when I started doing that, doing this in the 80s, things like that happened. They don't happen anymore.

You do not have a major demographic group that veers off by 15 points between how they view the president and how they view other candidates. You know, that's why Republicans have all 50 sentences in the 25 states. Trump, one three times that because they're all great candidates, it's because those attitudes really shape things. So, gladner seems to me, uh, I would not say you cannot say platinum or can't win. That in this environment, Trump is weaker than he was in 2020. His disapproval

is now over 60 in Maine and Collins is weaker than she was in 2020 because, you know, she, uh, Brett Kavanaugh in the interim between 2020 and now voted to overturn Rovi Wade after she stood in the Senate forum promised she would, she would not. He would not. So, I would not say platinum or can't win.

“I will say the platinum makes it a lot harder than it has to be because his vulnerabilities, I think”

map ominously over her strengths. I mean, I, I look at older white women as a prime audience to be worried about all of the things that have come out of it. And I also think, and I haven't talked about this as much, I think his strengths are less relevant in Maine than they might be elsewhere. I mean, if the guy's strength is that he, you know, and, and, and it does seem legit that he can mobilize a lot of younger non-voters kind of a Trump thing in reverse. And you mean, I mean,

this isn't Georgia or Texas or, you know, even Wisconsin, where you have a huge pool of non-voting

young people. You have, like, the second or third oldest electorate in the country. I mean,

your job, the job of a Democrat in Maine in 2026, is not to mobilize new voters.

wrong direction because a majority, a big majority already believed that in Maine, the job of the Democratic Senate candidate, in Maine, is to reassure the majority who are ready to think Trump and the Republicans are taking the state in the wrong direction that it's okay to vote against

“Collins and that you are a reasonable alternative. And I think Platner, again, he could win,”

but he introduces a tremendous amount of risk in that equation that doesn't need to be there. He hasn't told July 13. I don't know if you've talked about this on your Maine Law, they can't push him out at this point, but he hasn't told July 13 the step aside. And as I pointed out in a column this week, they've had, they have really good candidates in the

gubernatorial primary. Four candidates got over 20% of the vote in the first round, including three

who have very broad support on the left. And I do think that if there are more negative stories that come out or if simply there are a lot of polls that raise, you know, worrying direction between now and then, it would be in the interest of Democrats to kind of look at some of those alternatives. Because I do think, and this will really get the mailbag, I do think that the forces that are the national forces behind Platner, particularly the Sanders, Warren,

orbit, are so determined to prove that their model is the right model for how Democrats come back, that they have lost sight of the actual human being, that they are betting on and the place that they are testing it. And they seem to me more interested in beating Schumer in the primary than in beating Collins in the general. It's funny. I wouldn't say my bullishness. I will say I'm not as bearish as you. And the reason is actually has nothing to do with thinking that the

Sanders model is the model, or this is the proofing ground for that. I actually think that

just to talk about Collins, right? She has, she's never been this unpopular, right? She's never run

a competitive race with a midterm electorate, which is like a whole new thing, as you know, right? And so we keep talking about the Serrigadian example, but the Serrigadian example is in 2020, when you've got a whole presidential electorate, which as we know, and we've talked about, the audience, probably knows by now, is just in this era, better for Republicans, right? Because you bring out more of the non-college lesson gauge voters. Generally speaking, midterm elections, the electorate

is two, three, even four points more college educated than the presidential, the biggest presidential. And then you have a midterm electorate. So now she's running in her first competitive midterm electorate

“and one that is this favorable to Democrats, and the state has moved left since 2020, and I think”

in there in 2024, Maine's swing right, was maybe the one of the smallest, if not the smallest, in the country. So those are all the reasons, as I say, he can win. There's no question he can win. There's any gap, given the overall climate, given the specific, as you say, Collins's weaker than she was in 2020. Trump is more unpopular than he was in 2020 in Maine. So you can't say that any Democrat can't win. It's just that this is much more of a jump ball than it should be because of his

unique vulnerabilities. Are you surprised at how weak Mills was, and still isn't all these, I mean, even that poll, there was a poll out right before the primary, where I think that Mills,

it was like the first poll where Mills did slightly better than Platner against Collins, but still

by only like one point, two points, like I don't get how that, Mills doing that poorly and Gideon doing that poorly also makes me think, like what is it about those candidates who seem like

“they should fit the older women in Maine sort of voter model that you were talking about?”

Yeah, I mean, I think I, you know, I, I'm not an expert on Mills's relationships in the state, but there's no question she's conflicted pretty consistently with a lot of the same liberal groups in the state that are, that are promoting Platner and, you know, would, would one of the other alternatives in the governor race have done better against him in the end than Mills did. I think I think that's, you know, I mean, Hannah Pingree, former speaker of the house, Troy Jackson,

Bernie endorsed in the governor race, former Senate president, and then Shannon Bellos, who was the Secretary of State, who was kind of the sacrificial lamb against Collins in 2014, which he was much younger, and at that point I think had only been the head of the state, ACOU. You know, the thing, the thing about, the thing about Mills is, the thing I felt about Mills was that if she got to the general election, it wasn't clear to me what Collins would run against her on. Like, if she was

and it may not prove this positive. It may be that everything else is sufficient, but it

“introduced, you know, to, to, to put him over the top, but it introduced a level of risk that I think”

is just unnecessary. And I, and I think, just, like I said, I feel like many of the, the, the, the national forces in particular that are pushing Platner are just so determined to show that this is the right way for Democrats to win, that they are not willing to acknowledge A, this may not be the right place to test the theory, and I'm not sure it is, but B, you know, candidate's are not just, like, on a, it's like baseball. You could be the greatest prospect in the world. You actually

got to go out and do it, and, and the realities that he is presenting them with, they are just powering, through a people say, well, you know, switching to Kamala Harris didn't work that well, late in 24. I would say it worked out better than trying to stay the course. Like, yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm not sure that, unless a slotkin and Rubin Gayego and Jackie Rosen, wouldn't say it worked out pretty well. But this is, I was thinking about that. Like, to me,

between now and July 13th, the, um, the easier scenario in some ways is if there are, if, like, a ton of really damaging stories or, or even one story that's, it's much more damaging, comes out and suddenly you see polls where he's down five, six, seven, eight, right? Then it becomes, like, fairly easy, not easy, but easier for Democrats in Maine, which would have to be to, like, go to

“the campaign and try to convince them to drop out. I think if there's, like, a few polls showing”

it tied or he's a pointer to behind, and then there's no big stories or maybe just one kind of in the middle story nature, then it's really hard to go to someone who did better in the primary than Sarah Gideon did when she was facing two kind of no names in 2020 and say, okay, you got more votes than the last nominee against Susan Collins, but now we're going to make now we should push you aside because we're worried. Like, that to me is the tougher, that, that introduces

another, that introduces risk that I think is greater maybe than the risk we have right now. To the extent it is Republicans and not the media who has access to more damaging information then I'm going to put it out before July 5th. Certainly not, but I feel like the media would get there, I don't know, but yeah, on their own. You know, look, like we keep saying, he can win, there's no guarantee he's going to win and he gives, he gives her, he gives her an opportunity to

play the car, she's played before. I mean, it's, you know, I mean, it's, you know, and, and, um, like you're like we're saying, you know, if you don't, if you don't win main, you got to win three out of four in Alaska or Ohio, Texas and Iowa. I mean, that's asking a lot. I mean, in the long run, Democrats have to start competing again in these heavily blue-collar Trump three time states, but, you know, flipping, maybe the war goes on, gas prices stay high, Trump stays

under 40, like if Trump stays under 40, yeah, I could see them flipping three of those four conceivably, but if he gets back to the low 40s, which I'd still would bet on on election day, that, you know, that's, that's asking a lot to win three of those four states. Well, let's leave

“main and talk about those four states. Like what, I think you sort of ordered them earlier”

quickly, but I would just love, like, you know, you have financial decisions if you're the, the Democrats, like Texas is a very expensive, very big state to compete in, um, Alaska, Iowa not as much Ohio's, obviously, they're going to go on in Ohio. How do you look at those four states in terms of feasibility for, uh, in flipping them? And so you got North Carolina, which, which looks pretty good for Democrats now. I mean, I, I think Republicans can end up pulling the

plug there. Um, so like to me, like, you know, as I said to you before, like, in Trump's first term,

Susan Collins is the only Republican who won in a state where according to the ex-apole, more people disapprove than approved of his performance. So if you're thinking about Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, they're all probably going to be right at the tipping point either. He's either going to be slightly above 50 or maybe more likely below 50. I mean, you know, I saw, um, was at the argument that knew that, you know, uh, the Kasia Jane and my former colleague at

the Atlantic Jerusalem. Um, they tried to use their pulling to, um, um, uh, project Trump's approval in all of, in all 50 states. And they hadn't seven points or more negative in all four of those states. And if that's the case, Democrats have a shot in any of them. Now, if you're going to rank them, I think Peltola is an unusually good candidate. Alaska has kind of unusual population dynamics. It really doesn't have a huge white blue collar population. So I think Alaska is the strongest.

By conventional measures, you'd have to say Ohio is the second. I mean, you know, um, Ohio is a big

even in the mid-term year. Now, maybe that will go down a 59 this time. Um, and if you look at

“Shard Brown, when he won in 2018, he won 45% of non- college whites going to the exit pole.”

When he lost in 2024, he won 35% of them. So it doesn't get all the way back to 45, but he does have to get somewhere north of 40, probably, to win. That is possible. I mean, you know, when then we should have said before, when I was talking about the irresistible force, not only is Trump's overall approval rating down, it is well below where it has been among those non- college whites. So like even in 28, you know, he won 2/3 of whites with that college degree in all three

of his races. Even in 2018, again, according to the Exapole, his approval rating among non- college whites was 61%. Now, in every national poll, it is right at 50/50. Either, and usually slightly below 50/50, at best, 51/48, something like that. It's like the best. And then there have been polls where he's been as low as 46 among non- college whites. Um, if that's, if he stays there it's on November, Sherrod Brown, can win. I mean, you can win. And people should take into account

that when I say Trump is basically a 50/50 among non- college whites nationwide, well, that

includes evangelical Christians. Most of whom are non- college whites and are heavily concentrated in the South. There aren't as many of them in Ohio. So if Trump is a 50/50 among non- college whites nationally, he's probably going to be below 50/50 in Ohio, which makes it possible for Sherrod Brown, now I stay in. And this is like what I was saying about Maine, Sherrod lost in a presidential turnout where you have a greater share of non- college whites coming into the electorate than

you do in 2018 when he won, which was, you know, a midterm year, and then you have fewer

“non- college whites as a Sherrod. And I think Trump's approval will be lower today than it was”

in 2018 in Ohio. Um, you know, the difference is Sherrod's been around the block a little, so there may be a little tread off the tire in terms of how voters are looking at him. Um, I kind of feel like that's going to be the tipping point. I mean, if Democrats don't mess up Maine, if either, uh, platinum steps aside for someone more electable or they kind of stabilize things and are able to just pound, do you really want to get Donald Trump another vote

to put another Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, which seems to me they're best argument. Uh, then you look at Ohio, and I'm sorry, Iowa and Texas. Iowa is, um, Ohio, but even tougher, because in Ohio, roughly 20% of the voters are non-white and in Iowa, it's only like eight or nine. The non- college whites are more like 56, 57% of the vote in Iowa compared to like 50, 51 in Ohio. And more of those non- college whites in Iowa are evangelical Christians,

than they are in Ohio. So like by every measure, I can't see Turric winning before Brown wins. Like if, if Turric wins, the wave is big enough that Brown is going to win. Texas is intriguing, right? I mean, uh, you know, um, if you, if you look at it, again, like I love how you started with 2018, Beto is in 2018, versus Ted Cruz, but it will work is kind of the template for any kind of competitive statewide race for Democrats in Texas.

“Since then, the state is added three and a half million, I think, is the number of new voters.”

And almost all of them are people of color. It's like 90% of of the new voters and their metro, right? I mean, they're, they're like, they're in those four big metros. Um, Beto won the four big metros. Didn't win them by quite enough. Um, now, so, you know, Richard Murray, who I love, Professor Emeritus at the University of Houston in New and Texas politics, since, you know, before any either of us, um, he says that if all the groups, all the major groups in the electorate,

non- college whites, college whites, Latinos, black, Asian, all vote the same way they did in 2018,

but vote in the numbers they are present at today. Beto would win. Right? So, but the problem is,

the problem is, can you really get back to where Beto was among Latino voters, which was the low 60s? You're probably, you're going to Trump, Trump won Texas Latinos in 2024, which is kind of remarkably one, like probably 55% of them. Um, that's not going to happen. Tell Orico's going to win them. But is he going to get back over 60? You know, I mean, there was another poll out yesterday that Seattle poll only had it like 52. I don't think it's going to be that low, but is he going to get back

to 60? I kind of feel like the ball game in Texas. And in Texas, you know, a very large share of the non- college whites are even in jellicles. The fact that Telerico, you know, is a seminarian is not really going to help because he's a different kind of seminarian. I mean, the, you know, Texas blue collar even jellicles do not want to hear that God is non-binary, although seems like, as a, you know, seems like a perfectly defensible argument. I think the key is going to be,

Houston, Austin, and San Antonio? Beto got like 44 or 45% of college whites in 2018.

Can he, can Telerico push that up to 47, 48 against Paxton? You know, the other dynamic about Paxton is, I mean, I forget which one. So you probably might remember, but out of slotkin arose in Baldwin and, um, uh, Diego, the four Democrats of one in states where Biden lost. Several of them did not get more votes than Harris, right? It was just Republican skipped the center race. And that, you know, hard to see a lot of Texas Republicans voting for Telerico. It's not hard to see a few

of them voting for Abbott and skipping Paxton or skipping Paxton having down to Abbott. You can squint and see how this works where like some of them leave the Senate race blank. He gets up,

uh, he, he bumps up his numbers and the suburbs by a little few more after them been better

did. And then he gets that Latino number maybe if not all the way at 60 in the, yeah, 58 and then that's enough. Yeah, by the way, as, as people point out all the time, if they are a larger share of the vote than they were in 2018 Latinos, you can get a bigger net vote out of that community, even with a smaller share. You don't have to match the share, but matching the share would help. I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think Democrats can get back to 62, 63 maybe,

among Texas, which I was down in South Texas a few weeks ago. And, you know, there's a lot of

“economic discontent. There's a lot of ice discontent. Um, and I think, you know, um, my,”

my CNN column for later this week, tomorrow's news today, I think subtraction is going to be a bigger issue in this election than addition. I don't think you're going to add a lot of new Democratic votes, either with new voters coming out, or with Republicans who voted for Trump in 24 switching to vote for Democrats, but you could subtract a lot of Republican votes. I mean, Trump's, uh, according one of the stats, I'm kind of unveiling in this column later this week,

among Hispanics who voted for Trump, his approval right now is 66%. Right? That is not so good. Among all, I remember all of the focus on the non-college non-white voters and how this was kind of the, you know, the, the, the augurs of the, of the realignment. His approval already among non-college non-white who voted for him is 68%. Among non-college non-white who didn't vote in 24, his approval rating is 20%. Yeah. You saw that in the New York Times, the end of poll. It was,

those, those, those numbers were the worst. Yeah. Among non-voters, for, in the New York Times, the end of poll, among non-voters and 24, people who either skipped it, or who have become eligible since, he's a 21, 71 in job approval. So, you know, I'm not sure, you know, this is 2018 was another thing that was unique about 2018, is you did have this enormous surge of new voters. Catalyst says 13% of all the voters in 2018 had not voted before. Census says turnout in 2018

was 10 points higher than in either of the Obama midterms. It was 50% as opposed to 40% in the

“Obama midterms. So there was this surge of new voters. That's where I think the Biden experience is”

going to really hurt. I mean, because, you know, if you were a 21 year old in 2018, you had, you had Obama as your counterpoint to Trump. And it was like, yeah, we've got, we've passed universal health care, or we did this, or we did that. Now, you've got Biden. And, you know, whatever, rightly or wrongly, most Americans think that was not a successful presidency. So, at a point where young people in particular are very negative on Trump, or are also pretty

negative on what they remember out of Biden, I don't see that big surge that Democrats had in 2018 repeating itself. What I do think is a very clear and present danger to two Republicans is that the voters in their coalition who are disappointed with Trump, some of them are going to switch to voting for Democrats. But I don't think even many Democrats are expecting too many of them. Like, you know, only 6% of voters in 22 according to Pew voted for a house candidate from the party

opposite that they voted for president in 20. It's not that big anymore. The real swing voters are the people who cycle in and out of the electorate. And they express their discontent by staying home.

“And I think that is a real risk for Republicans everywhere. But Texas is a very good place where you”

could have a lot, I can see a lot of those Latino first-time Trump voters in South Texas, just like,

you know, sitting out. All right, we'll leave it there. All right. Thank you for, thank you for joining and making a smarter. And everyone check out Ron's column at CNN and you've got a column at Bloomberg as

take a look at that and thanks again for coming by. We'll do it again before we get closer to a November.

Absolutely. Good to be with you John.

“That's our show for today. Alex, lovely as always. This is the pod with you.”

It's a delight. Two in a row, man. I know. But I got to say, this shows a lot of work,

Dan Fiverr needs to get his butt back into the chair. This is like the longest Dan's been away

from politics. I wonder if he's somewhere just like getting the shakes or hives or something. Dan, Dan, send up two flares and you can still hear us. We love you, Dan. We miss you, Dan.

“We do. Thank you for letting me warm the mic. Well, you know. Thank you for warming the mic. You have”

been an honor to pleasure my friend to help us navigate these choppy insane waters of our American democracy. Have a good weekend, everyone. Love it. We'll be back with an episode of Pods Avamerica Sunday. He's talking to David Sedaris. How about that? Nixon 5. Yeah. Okay. And then Tommy is loving that way back with a new show on Tuesday. Bye, everyone. Nixon 5. Pods Avamerica is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher,

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