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Welcome to Prof G Markets. I'm Ed Ellson. It is August 4th.
“Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals.”
The major indices climbed after President Trump called off an attack and Iran indicated home moves negotiations on making progress. The Dow closed at a record high. And Amazon reached a $3 trillion valuation for the first time. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell.
The yield on tenure treasuries declined. And finally, the Japanese yen climbed off the US joint Tokyo to support it. More on that later. Okay, what else is happening? For months, investors have been asking how the AI boom might end.
And last week, they got a glimpse. 24-year-old Leopold Ashen Brenner's fund situational awareness, sent a letter to investors on July 24, reporting a 439% net return for the first half of the year. And a post script, Ashen Brenner wrote that it was, quote, a particularly good time to add funds.
But just six days later, the fund had lost roughly $35 billion in assets,
plunging from a peak of 45 billion to around $10 billion. And Ashen Brenner was forced to unwind his entire public stock portfolio in a fire sale that ended up going to Ken Griffin's Citadel. Investors are reading this story as a warning sign for the increasingly debt-fueled AI boom. Situation law awareness reportedly uses as much as 400% leverage to amplify its bets on AI infrastructure.
That helped the firm return more than 1,000% since inception. But when those bets went south, the same leverage accelerated the losses and forced fund into liquidation. We wanted to talk to someone who manages a fund and who has spent years thinking about leverage and market structure.
So we're going to discuss this with Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager for Simplify asset management, and author of the Yes I Give Ifig Substack. Michael, thank you so much for joining us. Let's just start with your initial reactions to the implosion of situational awareness. How did this happen?
What can we learn from it? You know, the quick answer is, is that when you look at somebody who is engaged in the behaviors that Leo has, there's really no mechanism for him to have learned not to do this. And so he had a very strong thesis. He expressed it with the extraordinary use of leverage.
His initial exposure was largely to non-public entities, and he had grown his business under that framework, which has a component of much lower volatility framing to it, because non-public entities don't reprisate themselves in the same manner. But when you start running strategies that are running that much leverage against this much volatility for the individual securities, unfortunately a blow-up becomes inevitable.
When it really looks like what happened within Leo's portfolio is that he cre...
under which a small decline in prices would force him to sell to reduces leverage, which in
“turn caused prices to fall further, which caused him to be forced to sell to reduce leverage further,”
and ultimately that cascaded into an event that sent both his lungs and his shorts against him.
In particular, he very much had the thesis that traditional software companies would be heavily disintermediated by the growth of AI in particular the software sector that obviously contributed to the underperformance of that sector for a period. His selling actually contributed to the underperformance of that sector, and as he began to be forced to unwind his portfolio, that forced prices to move in the opposite direction of his underlying
positioning and created conditions for the rapid collapse of the fund, and the needs to deliver it and is quick the time as he did.
“Nobody in their right mind should give a 25-year-old $20 billion at 4x leverage, but you actually”
can't blame the 24-year-old. The reality is he had a very strong view, he had a very strong
conviction on his view, and everything in his experience base up to that point had told him that this was the right strategy to pursue. Once you become that large, the street actually identifies you as a target, you effectively become a wounded, shark, and a feeding frenzy emerges. You recently wrote a piece about how many of the stocks that he was invested in the Sami stocks, a nebius sandus, micron, et cetera, how a lot of the activity in the volatility that
we're seeing in that market has been the result of the rise of leverage to ETFs. Could you talk more about how that is impacting the Sami conduct sector right now,
“and why it matters to investors? A leverage ETF carries the same characteristics as Leo's”
portfolio, which is obviously running at 4x leverage, and the difference between the two is that he leveraged ETF because it has a perspective that requires it to maintain that leveraged exposure has to rebalance every day, and this is where volatility creates a phenomenon called volatility drag. If you imagine a series in which I make 10% today and lose 10% tomorrow, many people would assume that the answer to that is I now have a zero return,
but the reality is I start with $1. I now have $1.10 and I lose 10% I have 0.99 and 99 cents
I've lost to penny. If I add four times leverage to that, you actually end up with a two to the fourth power impact on that volatility drag. Instead of investing $1, I've now invested $1 equity and $3 a borrowing. I'm up 10%, therefore I suddenly have $440, meaning my equity has risen, because I only owe $300, my equity has risen to $140, that is a 40% gain on a 10% change in the underlier, exactly as you would anticipate. But if you do the exact same math for what happens now
if I fall 10%, the compounding effect of that leverage and the need to rebalance it creates the conditions that cause the sorts of catastrophic losses. If you then add the additional layers you do with the ETFs that they need to rebalance every single day. It's not like they went from 140 equity with 300 of borrowing. They actually have to lever up that $140, so four times 140 is going to be 660. That actually means you were at 440 in terms of your exposure the day before.
Now I have to increase my position size by nearly 50% to maintain the leverage that I've promised my investors. That means that it creates what's called endogenous flow. It actually forces buying even without new investors adding money into the system and contributes to the sort of run-up that we have seen of less investors harvest that get those gains. So the piece that I wrote about it's called a semi theory of everything in explaining how this phenomenon plays out. When you have
large series of complexes that have historically run on this, most professional investors would run the way I described as a volatility harvesting strategy taking advantage of the fact that that compounding creates a loss. You actually short both sides of the trade and harvest the volatility loss associated with the volatility drag. It creates a very stable return profile as long as your volatility characteristics are maintained. Unfortunately in the excitement
of the post-march recovery in markets early April to be more precise, we actually saw retail investors step into these types of products because they were seeking out a leopold like experience.
They were actually buying these 3x leverage ETFs or 2x leverage single stock ...
holding rather than harvesting their positions, we actually saw a behavior that suggested people
“were trying to dollar-cost average into these strategies. If you run through the mouth on this,”
it is just a terrible way to invest. At 3x leverage, running the level of volatility, we were experiencing in the semiconductor space. As of April May, you would need a return in excess of 170% a year in order to simply break even on the volatility harvesting. To dollar-cost average into something that has 170% break even is absolutely absurd, but again a byproduct of the lack of education and can't delete the tools that we have put out into the marketplace with an objective
to attract people to shiny objects as compared to thoughtful investment vehicles. It seems like South Korea is the perfect example of how this all goes wrong. I mean, we saw what happened last week. We saw the cost be the South Korean stock market crashing 44% from its June highs.
We saw literally more than a million people in South Korea receiving margin calls,
“hundreds of thousands seeing their accounts liquidated to zero. We also saw a lot of protest”
from South Korea after this event. A lot of people are saying, let's abolish these levity ETFs. Let's get rid of them. How could you let this happen to us? How could you allow us to become addicted to this stuff? Is that the answer? What do we do about these levity ETFs if they all are such a dangerous investment strategy? Well again, it depends on how you use them, right? So a hammer is a very dangerous tool if used improperly. It is a very productive tool
if used properly. As volatility harvesting regimes and volatility harvesting tools, these can be used by professional investors to effectively short a realized volatility framework and create conditions under which profits can be generated by providing effectively the financing for those vehicles. South Korea has already banned the levity ETFs. They've now been forced to close their market multiple times over the past several weeks after and literally doubling
the number of times it had been closed in a three week period over its entire history since roughly 1990. They've recognized that these products have been, you know, create almost no social utility. In the United States, we are still trapped by market fundamentalism and we see that and everything from Kevin Worsh's recent testimony at the Fed to the general view on regulatory frameworks within the United States just let the market decide. There's a very rare reason we don't
do that. There's a reason we now have labeling on drugs that tell us what the addictive contents of them are. We now have labeling on food that tells us what the ingredient list is. And the
“reason why is because we used to have the same general view, buyer beware. You need to be responsible”
for yourself. Well, that's extremely difficult for an illiterate immigrant to figure out if the sausage that they are eating is filled with potato flour or if it is filled with meat. We recognize that. We took steps to address it. And in many ways, I think we often go too far in this. We do need to recognize that there's a role for experimentation and the utility of tools, as I was describing. We could ban hammers because somebody hurt somebody with a hammer that would
be a mistake. I think under most economic framings. But in this case, we have created effectively a gambling environment in which people are increasingly nihilistic in their interpretation of prices. Effectively assuming in many ways that governments are stepping in to support these prices or simply print money to create wealth to paper over the many problems that we see in our society. You and I have discussed some of those. That's simply untrue. I am just put emphasis
for the younger audience. Never substitute conspiracy when incompetence will suffice. We have
regulators who have largely abandoned their role. And as a result, we are left with a series of products that are being created that I would describe as half-boiled spaghetti being thrown at the wall in an attempt to see what sticks and attracts investor dollars. Just looking at what's happening in the U.S. now assets and a management in U.S. leveraged ETFs have reached a record 218 billion dollars up 60 percent since the end of March. I mean, it continues to explode. All the things that went wrong
in South Korea, they're becoming more and more popular in the United States, are we headed for a South Korea-like implosion in the United States? Well, unfortunately, as you know, this is one of the key concerns and it's tied to my work around market structure, the growth of passive and
Price and sensitive.
consider is what they're buying with leveraging good thing or a bad thing. They're simply
fulfilling an investment mandate. What I call a systematic portfolio rebalancing. Those create conditions under which these types of feedback loops can play out. And I would highlight to South Korea that actually much of the problem was not generated in South Korea. We imposed these conditions in South Korea through the introduction of an unlevered memory centric ETF DRAM in the United States, which exploded in size to almost as large as Leo Ashenbrunner's portfolio. And was sending
roughly half of its dollars in Korean-1 hedged terms, so they were selling the currency buying the stock in Korea. It brings to mind the 1971 experience from U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Connelly saying to the emerging markets, "It's our currency, but your problem." This was our ETF and their
“problem. And I think, unfortunately, you're going to see the regulatory environment begin to recognize”
that and it very well-meaning before it's to change. Michael Green is chief strategist in portfolio manager for Simplify asset management. He's also the author of the "Yes I Give a Fig"
Substack. Michael, we always appreciate it. Thank you so much. My pleasure.
After the break, why the U.S. is stepping in to support Japan. And by the way, if you're listening to this episode Tuesday morning, and sign up for our Substack live stream today at 11am Eastern with Asworth Demodarin, head to profgmedia.com to become a profg+ subscriber now. Support for the show comes from sofa. Education can be one of the most valuable investments you can make in yourself, but figuring out how to pay for it is a huge financial decision.
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Stepped into help.
in 40 years. That night Tokyo intervened, selling as much as $59 billion US dollars to buy back
“its own currency. But then on Friday, the US Treasury did something it hasn't done since 2011,”
it joined the intervention. Japan confirmed the operation yesterday morning, Trump framed it partly as a favor, calling it a "signal of friendship." Here is what he said. We're very strong,
very, very strong financially, and they are never ever weakening in, and they wanted a little bit
of help, and we're always there for Japan's advancement. Very good to us with the exception, of course, of Pearl Harbor. Joining us to discuss America's intervention in Japan, we're speaking with Katie Martin, Market's Columnus, and Editorial Board Member at the Financial Times. Katie, thank you for joining us on the show. I just got to start with your reactions to Trump's explanation as to why we have intervened here. Why have we done this? The line about Pearl Harbor is one of the
unintentionally most hilarious things I've had. I've been global macroed for quite some time, but there's various different ways of looking at this situation. There is definitely an interpretation here that it's just nice to be nice, right? And Japan has got a problem with a sliding currency, and it's been trying to tackle it, and it hasn't really been working, the currency's just sort of been gradually dripping lower this whole time. Nothing's really been
working admittedly. Japan hasn't really tried really jacking off interest rates, but
“it wanted some help, and the US came to help. And I think this is one quite important thing to”
bear in mind here is that one of the things that this joint intervention does, and as you mentioned,
this is the first time the US has been involved at all in this kind of way since 2011, but that
was a G7 intervention. Actually, as a bilateral thing, you have to go back even further. You have to go back best part of 30 years to find anything similar to this. Anyway, what it does is it's a signal to the world of we help out our friends. So if you recall, back end of last year, have you a melee, the president of Argentina, he wanted some help with his currency and the run-up to an election, and Scott Bessant came to help. Some countries in the Gulf, in the Middle East,
they needed some help around the time of the start of the war in Iran, and there was talk of opening up swap lines for countries that are friendly to US interests that might need them. So the US does make a show of being good friends to its friends, but I think there is more than a little self-interest going on here, you'll be shocked to hear. Japan has two main ways of supporting its currency. It can raise interest rates really quickly, which is quite difficult to do for
domestic reasons, or it can sell loads of dollars. And I mean, loads of dollars, and when it sells dollars, that means that it sells US treasuries. Now, I'm sure listeners to your podcast are well aware that the US Treasury market is in a bit of a fix at the moment. Prices have been falling quite hard, yields have been pushing up, and borrowing costs have got really quite elevated, especially for long-term debt. And so the last thing the US wants is for Japan to dump a load
“of new treasuries onto the market. So I think that's why they're getting involved here. It's”
kind of a case of standing behind Japan, being that kind of big brother, and saying to the market, back off, stop selling this currency. From my understanding, Japan has been selling treasuries all year. They've done it multiple times before this summer. And if the yen continues to weaken, I mean, it seems as if Japan will just have to keep selling more of its treasuries. Or I guess the US will have to continue to intervene and continue to send money over to them. I mean,
why wouldn't this keep happening? Why wouldn't this repeat over and over again? Well, that's the thing, you know, I've been talking to a bunch of people in the markets about what's happened over the course of today. And most of them are saying, this stops the rot, you know, if there are speculative accounts like there that are trying to really harm the yen. And it's not clear to me that they are. It's not clear to me that there's a massive market
dislocation going on here. But in any case, this does help to slow that down. But really what would
help Japan and what would help the currency to perk up at this point would be first of all,
some big rises in US in Japanese interest rates, as I mentioned. The problem there is, again, Japanese government bond yields, they're pretty low by global standards, but they're very high
By Japanese standards.
of a sudden, there's a lot of Japanese investors for whom actually putting money to work in the
“US, putting money to work in US treasuries, kind of, isn't worth anymore. You may as well just keep”
that money at home. So again, a solution to the yen problem would potentially sap quite a lot of demand for US treasuries out of the system. And again, that's not really in the US interest. So what would really help the yen would be, big rises in Japanese interest rates and or big declines in US government bond yields, because those markets tend to be closely correlated. Now, the reason the US government bond markets are in trouble and the US borrowing costs are
higher is nothing to do with Japan, is because the markets are looking up and they're listening to what they hear from Kevin Morsh, new chair of the Fed, and saying, "I don't get it." Like, I just don't understand how the Fed is relating to markets at the moment. I don't understand
“why they're not raising interest rates given their stated objectives. In addition to which the”
Fed on the Kevin Morsh is talking about talking a lot less to markets and that introduces volatility. So if there was a shift in regime on the US side, that would actually do a lot more good for the currency on the Japanese side. So look, you know, will this go on all sunk all summer? Will we end up with the US constantly coming into the dolly end market? Or weirdly the Euro end market? But will it have to keep on buying yen to transport the currency? Or is just the fact that they're there standing
shoulder to shoulder with Japan? Is that enough to put the market off? There's a good chance that it is. One of the strange things about this KT is that actually the US is selling euros in this transaction, this intervention. Why is that happening? This is a total curve ball. I have
never heard of any country intervening in anyone else's market using a third party currency before.
This is a new one on me, new one to everyone I've spoken to about it. But basically it's a function of the fact that the pot of money that the US has stored away for these sorts of instances is predominantly in euros and yen. So this is what they've got available to sell for these sorts of purposes. I gather from reporting that some of my colleagues have done at the FT that the US authorities have been in touch with the European Central Bank. They have been in contact
about this. There's didn't come as a total surprise. I don't think to the European Central Bank. But again, if this carries on and if the US ends up in a situation where it's selling shed loads of euros against the yen and you start to get exchange rate distortions in the euro as a result of what the US is doing to help out Japan. We're not in Kansas anymore, I don't know how that happened. Trump said something interesting in that clip. Of course,
the Pearl Harbor part was the most interesting in hilarious. But at the beginning of it, he said that we are very financially strong. Basically saying, we have the money to help them. We like them. So we're going to help them. My understanding is that we have trillions of dollars of debt. And actually, we're not very financially strong. What is your view on whether this is appropriate and to what extent we actually are in a position to be sending money over to nations when
they're in a rut with their currency? The US has tremendous financial firepower. For all of the problems around debt sustainability around little cracks that you can see in the
stock market, the reality is it operates the world's dominant reserve currency. It has very reliable
demand for that debt. It definitely has the ability to do this. I guess one of the interesting questions that comes out of it, though, is who does Trump help in this way? Who does best in help in this way? So for example, say there was a problem in UK government book market with the politics dictate that Trump and Bessant would come to the aid of the UK politically, probably not. If you are a trader or an investor particular, you know, of a hedge fund kind of variety,
do you start taking out bets against countries that you think are politically aligned with the
“US? Or is there risk there that you could get caught on wrong side of an intervention from Scott Bessant?”
So this is a whole new way of thinking about global macro potentially, which currencies, which bond markets, is it possible to bet against when you have got this big beast, which is the US, standing behind them? Yes, I was going to bring up, you know, we had the similar situation
With Argentina and Harvey and Malay, and this was right before his midterm el...
Trump come in and they sort of bail out the Argentine peso. And then, in the case of Japan,
“I don't know much about the new Prime Minister Takaichi, but I do know that she has praised Trump”
pretty extensively. She has said that only you Donald, I'm quoting her, kind of chief world peace, she pushed for him to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. You know, she said that this guy's great, which for me raises the question, like, is it unreasonable to assume that we are bailing Japan out? At least partly because the leader is saying nice things about our president. Is bailing out the right kind of framing for this? I'm not sure, but there are very clearly
financial benefits to making nice with the US, but also the US is clearly very sensitive to any
possibility that any major buyers of US treasuries worth bearing in mind that Japan officially holds
in excess of a trillion dollars worth of US treasuries securities. It's the biggest buyer of treasuries on the planet. But the US is very sensitive to the possibility that anyone could not even dump their treasuries, but just feel and need not to buy quite so many treasuries in future. So, you know, the US had quite a kind of allergic reaction at the start of this year, when Denmark was saying, well, maybe we're not going to buy so many US assets, what with how you're threatening
to invade Greenland. This went down extremely badly. They're very sensitive. The US has an enormous deficit. It is extremely reliant on these debt markets. It is not for all of the
“bravado. I think, you know, Scott Bessons, an intelligent man, and he knows that the US is not in a”
position to live without these foreign buyers of US securities. This is what keeps the show on the road in the States. So, is Takachi playing a good game here quite possibly? You know, it is precisely the reluctance of Japanese authorities to tighten monetary policy, raise interest rates. And there is more kind of, there's more spending that comes as a result of this new Takachi government. They're the core problems behind what's going on with the Japanese year. But also, you know,
domestically forward Japan inflation is a political issue, and inflation does come when you've got a weaker currency. So, that's the kind of symbiosis is that the US needs Japan to keep buying the treasuries. Japan needs the year and to be somewhat stronger than it currently is. Then Japan also needs that security umbrella that comes from the States. So, this is very much the framework that all different countries are operating under at the moment that no one is, it's very
difficult, geopolitically to distance yourself from the States when you have got all of these interrelationships between markets and geopolitics and security and defense and trade and all of those things all layered on top of each other. I'll give you Takachi, she's playing quite a good game here if she can, stock the rotten the currency because she's got the US standing behind her. All right, Katie Martin is Mark, its colonists and editorial board member at the financial times.
Katie, foreign exchange is probably the most difficult and confusing topic in all of financial markets. So, we appreciate you simplifying it down for us and making it understandable. Thank you so much. Pleasure. It's official. Trump is now selling early access to his social media posts to Wall Street, the decision which was rumored to be happening a few weeks ago is now final.
Trump media has launched Truth API, a new high-speed data fee that gives financial funds a quote direct licensed real-time feed of the platform's most market-moving truths. In other words, pay Trump money and you will get early access to his social media. Now how much money must you pay will reportedly have to pay a hundred thousand dollars per month. The next question is, is that worth it?
Well, if you're a high-frequency trading firm, the answer is yes. Trump's tweets move
billions of dollars within seconds. Those are billions of dollars that Wall Street must pursue.
“So, if you're a real trading firm, well then you don't have much of a choice. You have to buy”
this product. And as a result, Trump will make millions off of this. It's kind of like his Trump coin cryptocurrency grift. Only this one is a lot bigger and a lot worse. If you're as tired of hearing about Trump's corruption as I am, then you probably don't really care much to hear about this story. It's just another chapter in an endless anthology of fraud and shameless
Profiteering at the White House.
should be front page news across every single media platform in the nation. It is a federal scandal
the likes of which we've never seen. But it isn't front page news because it has become normalized.
We are now known to these kinds of headlines. We treat them as if it's any other story. And maybe it is.
“In which case, look how far we fall in. The only thing left between America”
becoming a literal third world nation isn't regulation. That's been gutted. It isn't enforcement. And it certainly isn't Congress. The only thing left is you. Or more specifically, you and your ability to care. Now, they know this. And that's why they'll do everything in their power to convince you that this doesn't matter and that you shouldn't care and that it's just a side show. But as someone who is just as tired and bored of this as you are, I'm here to tell you, you should.
Do not stop caring. Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams. Our research team is Dan Chalon, Kristen Adonnihue and Mia Souverio and our social producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Prophecy Markets from Prophecy Media. If you liked what you had, give us a follow.
I'm Alison. I'll see you tomorrow. Support for the show comes from Odo. Running a business is hard enough. So why make it harder? With it doesn't different apps that don't talk to each other. Introducing Odo, it's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more.
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