SpaceX IPO Takes Off — And Elon Is Now A Trillionaire

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“That's how many bottles of wine are in Joseph Stalin's wine vault, which the Georgian government”

unsealed for the first time last month. That I don't know if you heard, but an alien race of women have been abducting men with a specially large dick, so you're safe. And also this spaceship is just fucking amazing. I couldn't find a joke about Stalin that wasn't really really bad. Really bad.

Defying your way to aliens and dick size, which is always a good combination.

That was good. I think it works. A little ribbing of the co-host, nothing wrong with that. That's what they come here for. My love language is giving people a hard time and then giving them money.

That's true. That's true. I'm doing well. You're in Sweden, I understand. Yep.

It's not participated in a war in 200 years.

“And that's why it's such a beautiful city.”

Something happens when you avoid the most wealth of starring events in history, you avoid wars. It is beautiful. I can see you living here. You look like you'd fit in here.

You look very Swedish. 100%. Yeah, I was there a couple years ago for a speaking gig and I just loved it there. It was beautiful. It really is nice.

Is it hot? No, it's like 60, 65 degrees and it's what it is, it's light.

It's basically never gets really, it kind of feels like from 11 to 11 pm to 4 am.

It just feels like dusk. It's a little weird. I think I'm a little bit manic and I'm crashing. Wrong data give up method, wrong data give up method. Well you're missing some incredible vibes here in New York.

I bet I offer this unbelievable way. I mean, this episode, we're recording this before game five. So who knows what will happen by the time this episode goes out? But vibes are electric here. I mean, this is a whole other reason to be in New York.

It's just unbelievable. And if we continue this, if the next continue to be as dominant as they appear to be, I really think that this just changes the meaning of summers in New York. I mean, this is like everyone on the streets on a random Wednesday night until two in the morning, you can either be upset about that or you can love it.

The point is, I mean, this, this city is on fire right now and it's all because of the next. So you're missing out. I so fucked up. I was supposed to be there this whole week, I told you this, right?

I was invited to the Chanel party to the Tribeca Film Festival, the game two or three of the next. I was going to such a good time and add all these cool business meetings lined up and

time you spend with your kids is over by the time you're 18 and I freaked out, bond to

“the airport, went home, walked in thinking I was like, my car is the returning to his loving”

family or Phil from Phil Dumphi from modern family. I walk in my two boys are there and literally this is what I got. That's it. They nodded. They kind of turned their head and looked up like, "Hey, bro, I didn't have no hay, bro.

Nothing. Literally nothing." And then what'd you do? Did you punish them? You got to punish them for that.

I punish my kids once. I threatened to punish a lot. I threatened to punish. I'm taking your phone away and then I realized they used their phone to order food for me and one of the five guys.

Yeah, so that's it. I don't starve and it's how they get on the subway with their phone now, anyways, but yeah, they didn't appear to miss, I fucked up. I would love to be in New York right now. Well, you learned your lesson, basketball and sexy parties over kids every time.

100%. What am I thinking? And now you know and can take this forward, you have some learnings and you can change your behaviors.

So there's always, there's always a silver lining to messing things up.

I'm going to overwhelm my imposter syndrome with sincere incompetence. I like that. I like that. I like that. That's clever.

All right. Well, we have a lot to get into here. Shall we get into our stories? Let's do it. The biggest IPO in history has finally arrived.

SpaceX began trading under the Ticker SPCX at $150 and 11% jump from its IPO price. As trading began, shares rose to around $160, which is close to 20% up from the original IPO price. The debut marks a historic milestone for Elon Musk, whose net worth has now surpassed $1 trillion.

Elon is officially the world's first trillionaire as of this IPO.

It's also a major moment for the broader market. Years of waiting for the private markets, biggest winners to go public investors are finally getting their chance with anthropic and open AI expected to follow SpaceX is the first in a wave of blockbuster IPOs that could define the next era of the public market. So Scott, let's get into their SpaceX was the IPO price.

The issuance price was $135. We were all wondering if it would pop as soon as it started trading.

“My prediction, you might remember, was that the stock would pop immediately 25% as soon as”

it started trading. It immediately seemed like that was the case because we are hearing murmurs that the stock was going to go out at 170, maybe close to 175, but then as soon as it officially opened it, opened it around $150, that's an 11% jump. A success, but not as much of a success as many of us included myself predicted.

And now we're discussing this during the trading day on Friday and shares a hovering around 160, moving up to 165. It's incredibly volatile right now. Let's just start with your initial reactions we can get into the valuation too. Some interesting news, also the fact that Elon is now a trillion air, but let's start with

your initial reactions to this stock finally going public.

Well, Elon Musk had a dollar for every racist and stupid tweet or a thing he's ever said. The way he does now, he does know it. I try to get excited about this because a lot of people, you could argue a lot of people have been made, I've talked to someone here in Stockholm who works for one of the investment banks taking them out and he reminded me he's like, look, it's great for economic growth.

There's especially more than a dozen or a dozen of people just in Texas who no one's ever heard of who became billionaires today and they'll go start companies, make investments, buy things, feel the economy and you also see, you know, people excited about the markets, more capital flowing into the U.S. markets, they're going to spend that money, economic growth, GDP.

The problem I have is where I come back to Earth here is that who is funding all those more as I'm on a coming from and I still would argue this is the greatest transfer of wealth we've seen at least in a short time from retail investors to a small concentration of

“people since crypto and I'm a boomer, I just look at this and I think it doesn't make”

any sense and what I think we have here and it doesn't got enough discussion is the greatest

an or a mess store and they purposely have a line, I looked in the store it wasn't that busy but they purposely create a line to create the sense of scarcity and then if you go in and try and buy a Birkenbag, they put you on a waiting list and they tell you, no, no, no. And these are not complicated things to manufacture but they want to create the illusion of scarcity or manufactured scarcity and what I don't think people are focused enough

“on here and there's been news on it but it's really I think the whole shooting match”

is that Musk threatened not to go public on the NASDAQ unless they wave the 12 month requirements for him to be included in the NASDAQ 100 so they back down, they blinked. The S&P said no, the Dow Jones said no but the NASDAQ blinked and the result is there immediate included in these indices if it's had $2 trillion in their 50 trillion of market cap in the NASDAQ 100. That means all the indices that track the NASDAQ 100 now

have to put 4% of their assets under management into SpaceX stock creating anywhere between

20 and call it 50 billion dollars in additional demand that no IPO is you know benefits

from. In addition, traditional IPO rules are that you have to issue at least 10% of your shares they didn't issue 5% so massive artificial demand or demand that no one else has benefited from from constrained supply that no one else has been able to manufacture and what you have is a pop a 20% or 25% pop on what I think is manufactured scarcity. Now the question is where do you go from here and I would argue someone called me and said I have

“access to shares should I do it? I said I think you should but I would look at this as a trade”

not as an investment because eventually that manufactured scarcity begins to leak, you know, lockups come off the after a couple of earnings calls there will be some settling around where the stock reasonably should be but I think what we saw today was going to go down in the history books or bankers the NASDAQ backing down Elon Musk's power in the marketplace creating

a level of manufactured scarcity the likes of which we have never seen before and just the

last thing this person told me he works at one of the lead underwriters is they did no less than 500 calls with high net worth investors taking them through taking them to the deal and why it was a good idea so you have had some of the most talent people in finance basically crawling over anyone with a heartbeat or a pulse, high net worth retail etc to try and create unbelievable demand so the bankers have done their job here I think they're going to get about a half a billion

dollars in fees I thought it was a billion but someone correct me said it's half a billion that's

“I think it's a little more than that around $650 million in fees yeah there you go but again the key to electric brand”

the key to irrational margins is manufactured scarcity we've never seen we've never seen it like this

is the king of the markup let's just look at the valuation here it's currently at around 2.1 trillion dollars so that means it's trading at 112 times last year's sales we've wanted this out before but matter went public at 28 times trailing revenue and they were growing revenues 88% the year before the IPO Google went public at about 10 times trailing revenues growing revenues 2040% the year before the IPO this is more than 100 and it grew 33% last year and

it's most recent quarter it grew 15% so it has I mean massively lower growth than some of these other IPOs in fact more than an order of magnitude lower growth than many of these very successful tech IPOs and then we can just look at the comparison to the price sales multiples of some of the max seven companies today match is trading at seven times sales Microsoft at less than 10 times sales alpha bets at around 11 times sales I mean right there you

have your answer this is wildly valued as a company and the question of courses why are people down to pay this much and I think Gil Luria said something really really true and really striking on the show when we had him on last week he said that Elon essentially what he does he has this trick where he has his business that he sells for today the business of tomorrow and then the business that's way out in the future and the case of Tesla you have the cause today and then you have

the robot axis tomorrow and then you have the humanoid robots way out in the future and in the case of SpaceX he's done the same thing where you have stalling today you have orbital space based data centers tomorrow supposedly and then way out in the future you have asteroid mining and you

that's basically all he's doing in the same way as you described that umez can mark up

their handbags to these extraordinary prices because they're really good at selling the brand

“creating a culture and creating an ethos around the brand and that's what allows them to do it”

Elon is doing the exact same thing here the question is how long does this last I mean I predicted I think you predicted I think many of us predicted that on day one this would be a hit I got to say it's been a little bit I would say underwhelmed compared to what expectations were I thought it was going to be 25% immediately and I saw a world in which it could go even higher than that we looked at an 11% jump right at the opening but again the question becomes

what is it going to look like over the next five, six, seven, eight months what's going to happen as the lock-up periods expire and we could also note that there has some kind of funky lock-ups compared to traditional IPOs which usually there's a 180 day cliff and instead SpaceX has as opted for this rolling release valve where they essentially let you sell your stock in in what is essentially 20 day increments it starts after 70 days and the 90 days and then

under 20 days it's a kind of complicated setup which is designed to make it easier to sell your stock

“over the short term and my assumption is we're going to see unprecedented selling because I think”

everyone knows this thing is very hot right now it's in demand big day on the IPO and that is somewhat what we're seeing but then over time they're going to start to realize okay now I want a cash out now I'm going to sell and so my expectation is that the stock is going to get cut in half over the next six months as the lock-up periods expire and as all of the hype and the excitement starts to wear off there's just so many things here that lead to a transfer of wealth and power

from the little guy to the big guy so for example 3.75 billion they reserve was reserved to

give to like friends and family with no lock-up so why wouldn't they give those to I don't know journalists who say nice things about SpaceX or to trump dawn junior hey we have worked with our bankers we think there's going to be a 20% pop here you know would you like an easy two million

“bucks put 10 million in you not not that I'm recommending this but you can sell in the first trade”

if you want we think there's going to be at least a 20% pop and meanwhile the retail investor who might be subject to this weird lock-ups that's crazy or you're effectively doing is creating a different classes stock you're not supposed to do that my understanding of security's law is that when one class of stock has different trading rights than another and you're not an insider you've created a different class of shares by the way I just want to just just to clarify the retail

investors actually can sell if they want to via these brokerage apps but supposedly if they do sell they're banned then yeah they're going to be not allowed to buy into future IPO so you're allowed to put the platforms are setting it up to discourage you from doing that so call it a soft lock-up soft lock-up yeah but when you trade when you create different conditions on the sale and purchase of a stock you're creating a new equity unless you're an insider somehow I thought that was

a level according to the SEC but supposedly that's now that's not legal we don't have an SEC anymore yeah yeah so this is again you know it just feels like look out below the thing I wasn't anticipating I'm curious you hear thoughts on it I would have thought that the other guys would have traded up in sympathy and according to according to Mia here rocket rocket lab echo star and space mobile had declined 10-12 and 14-persment respectively I would have thought

they would have traded up in sympathy with us I don't know if it's because people had to sell that stuff to get into this correct what is it using that's a hundred percent and this is the thing that we were saying lost we can terms of the equity supply and we've seen this with a lot of the big techniques we saw this with Microsoft in the Mag7 stocks and some of the chip stocks even

where in order to fund the incredible demand essentially or I guess given the massive

injection of supply that has entered the markets because of the SpaceX IPO a lot of people didn't have the money to fund that and so what did they do they decided to sell their positions and this is what I said to you on the on the show last week if you don't have the money available to buy the SpaceX IPO but you want in what do you sell you probably sell your existing tech positions you don't sell your defensive positions you don't sell you don't sell your house but you sell all of your

more speculative positions trim those down so that you can fund this new position so yes virgin

the same thing with many of the tech names so I think and this is exactly what we said I think that when you have open AI going public as well and throttle going public I mean we'll see when they go public it seems like they're going to go public very soon perhaps around the same time you're going to see the same dynamic in order to fund that in order to keep up with supply as we said this is Econ 101 when there is more supply that results in lower prices overall when we see that

massive injection of supply suddenly investors are going to have to think okay how do I get in I'll trim my position and Tesla I'll trim my position in these tech companies and that way I can get into these stocks so that is exactly what we're seeing right now in the space market itself

“you also mentioned the idea of different classes of shares here which I think is very important”

and it's especially important as it relates to Elon Musk who will retain 82% of the voting power of this company which is now one of the top 10 most valuable companies in the world's more valuable than Tesla he owns 80% of voting power he picks the board he cannot be fired by anyone other than himself he is also required shareholders to unconditionally wave the right to jury trials and class action lawsuits because he has PTSD from being sued by Tesla shareholders and of course he

is also incorporated in Texas and as we've discussed on the show the Texas Business School is famously weak on protecting shareholders it's very profound there is very pro CEO it's very pro inside it's 82% of the voting power I mean maybe that makes you confident because you're really trust Elon but if you don't trust this guy if you don't trust his judgment entirely if you think that he's spending a majority of his time on ketamine or whatever you think that's a terrible number to see

and I I've noticed that some pension funds are opting out because of that number what do you make of that from a governance perspective well so corporate governance is based on governance and that is it's supposed to be one share one vote like one man one vote right that's the idea that if you're you want to attach economic sacrifice or risk to authority so ideally what you want in a company is that if 51% of the shares vote for a certain action to fire the CEO or to sell

the company or to put in place certain initiatives that they given that they've put 51% of their

capital at risk that they get 51% of the vote dual class shareholder companies basically separate

ownership from authority and that is and it initially was invented by owners and newspapers and media companies who said we're worried that a bad person's going to come in and use their economic power to buy a great media company in usage for their bad actor means google founders were the first to demand a dual class shareholder company and want to maintain control with the minority position and it actually the VC's pushback and ultimately Larry insert it went out and that

created a flood of new companies with dual class shareholder structures everyone from rich man the sales brokers on less than 1% of the New York times and they control it the Ford family

“owns I think single digit percentage of Ford they control Ford I'm not I'm not as exercise by that”

because my sense is buyers you know need to do their own research and there's a lot of companies that have a similar dual class shareholder structure and they know what they're getting into or they don't but that's up to them they there's two sides of the straight if you don't want Elon and charge don't buy the stock what I'm worried about and I think is a bigger existential risk is that we now have one man and specifically this man who has more wealth than any man in history

by any ratio and wealth and a capitalist society in an effort economy is just infinitely more powerful

so this is someone who can turn off and on battlefield technologies and I've already said do I think to fix this in I think that my guess is Donald Trump has had many conversations are an open dialogue with Elon Musk and Elon Musk is now you know okay so he's a trillionaire and say he he got say he leaned on Trump I mean first off let's talk to let's just talk

“about that wealth that amount of wealth and power I believe results with citizens united”

in an undo amount of political influence and generally speaking for example most elections are kind of you know forty nine fifty one or forty seven fifty three and when you have someone who basically might say hey Donald you know we put pressure on your SEC chair to wave all these stupid rules

in exchange you know I'm now a joiner I put two hundred fifty million to work in your campaign

think it's just a very I think power corrupts and absolute power absolutely corrupts also

“I don't think Elon Musk is acquitted himself well in terms of judgment so I think I think we're in”

a that dual class shareholder port governance that doesn't freak me out people can decide to sell the stock what freaks me out is having someone who doesn't live with other people as far as I know is a strange from you know one or more of his children and is got a substance abuse issue and sleeps with a loaded gun next to his bed and believes there's a white genocide taking place

in South Africa is now the most powerful person to ever exist on the planet and just to wrap up

this word salad I've now gone to where Gary Stevenson you know of Gary's economics is not as he reframed my view of taxes and then since he said taxes are our our protection from corruption there are protection from people aggregating too much power and as I sit here in Stockholm where there's higher tax rates we have this false argument in the United States that democracy and socialism can't coexist and that's the wrong argument what they've settled here in Sweden as I walk

around and see GDP growth of 2% and no homeless people and really great education is that you can have billionaires and universal child care and so this notion that it's one or the other that you have to put up with homeless people and weirdness and corruption Sweden has produced Spotify, Klauna, King, Erickson they have the GDP of 75,000 dollars per for individual with the population in North Carolina and deficit that is 30% of GDP versus

“ours at 130 and I think that the what I'll call the billionaire classes created this argument that”

no you can't have economic growth if unless you have this incredibly low taxation rate and obviously I'm a little bit fond of Sweden right now because the summer day in Stockholm but I think this country in other places say that that is just a bullshit argument from people who want to aggregate way too much fucking power so dual-class-shareholder company I'm not worried about it one man with this much power I think that's a risk yeah but it says something about his priorities despite

the fact that he is the richest man in the world the richest man in America the richest man in American history and if we want to stop figuring out is he the richest man to ever exist on a relative basis I'm not sure exactly but I know for certain that that is true

“of the history of America where he's worth 3.2% of US GDP and the next richest in history was”

John D. Rockefeller who was worth less than half of that on a relative basis but he still needs that power he still needs to have more than 80% of the voting power of this company and it's just

striking the sense in which it is actually never enough for him he has to continue to accumulate

more and more wealth more and more power and anytime that there are any norms placed on him this is what usually happens this is usually how voting power is dived up when you go public he has to reject him he says no I'm not doing it unless I have total control over the entire thing and let's just I mean a trillion dollars we should just like put that into perspective and because it we're only a week away from normalizing that you know I've been seeing people on Twitter mostly Twitter

people on social media basically getting excited for him that he's now a trillion and like he posted some meme about how he's now a trillion. I see a lot of people retweeting it and being like let's go Elon like he crushed it which is such a strange I don't understand it but it's some strange blend of like secrecy with this belief that you two will eventually become a trillion air or he's kind of sticking it to the man in some way even though he is now the man because he is literally

worth a trillion dollars I don't really know what the psychology is but I know that we're about to normalize it just want to put this in a perspective this makes Elon now that this company's gone public richer than the bottom 46% of the entire world population combined so he has more wealth

than 3.8 billion people. That is crazy and it's not socialist or communist to state that

fact and to say wow that's a lot of power that's a lot of money but there's so much sensitivity

you just want to you know socialize everything sees the means I mean we just need to state the

“facts here this guy's worth a trillion dollars that's absurd that's crazy there's no way that”

that is going to be efficiently allocated throughout the markets that to me doesn't say that the markets are working as they are intended so I 100% agree with your point I have some other stuff in here that we get into but maybe I'll just pause there and see if you have any reactions there's one of the greatest features of americans is there optimism americans think they're going to be rich and it enables them or encourage them to take risk to move to quit their jobs go

to where they think they're human capital will be better used do startups get encourage them to make crazy investments and as a result we have one of the you know the most impressive economy in history there's a real upside to that optimism the downside is that everybody believes their lottery ticket is going to be a winner and you end up with a trillion air while 40% of American households have medical or dental debt and it just strikes me that we've created this false flag

or this false argument that you can't have this type of economic growth while having universal

“healthcare sure you can and but you have to fund it and this rooting on I think I can understand”

rooting on SpaceX I can understand rooting on someone who makes extraordinary wealth I guess what I would ask is should that person be taxed at a progressive tax right and do we want do we want a world in which so many people are having a difficult time making ends meet and one person who if they

stack dollar bills or hundred dollar bills gets a third of the way to the moon and people say well

that's a function of capitalism no it's not there's there's capital countries all over the world where you know kids don't you know one in five households don't have kids who are food insecure so I actually you know where I land on this is one distinctive offering and you know my feelings about the manufacturer scarcity but on the social side of things I think it's great that someone can make a trillion dollars what bothers me is that they're not taxed at a decent rate

and we don't put the same safeguards or apply the same norms to them thereby again reflecting

“Elon Musk is probably going to decide who the next president is I think we're naive to think that”

he doesn't have that power now yeah I know that's right I mean it's one thing to play the game and make a lot of money playing the game but it's a different thing to rig the game and making it make a lot of rigging it and that seems to be what the direction we're headed especially the extent to which these people like Elon appear to be buying our politics I mean we've seen how billionaire spending on political campaigns has just exploded ever since citizens united

and it does result in these regulations which makes it easier to make huge amounts of money particularly with this insider trading stuff which is why I believe that that is probably the biggest issue that we're seeing in the current administration right now is just the total collapse of investor protections in the increase of insider trading one final point I just want to point out related to the circular deal making that we've described in the past and this is very

interesting and our research assistant danchilon point in this out and it's a really good point off to the S1 drop for SpaceX they announced this deal with Google where Google was going to buy

920 billion dollars per month worth of AI compute from SpaceX and a lot of people say hey SpaceX

has a good business now like they're figuring it out it was very strange though because we also have to recognize that Google owns 6% of SpaceX so once again we have a situation where the investor is the customer at the same time and so when you think about it at the current valuation up a hundred times sales ish when you think about it that way for every dollar that Google spends on SpaceX compute they get about six dollars back in shareholder value because they

own six percent of the company now that already is like that's weird you're paying for something and then getting something in return in the form of higher returns for your shares here's where it gets weirder Google will pay SpaceX $8400 per GPU per month compared that to anthropic and their deal with anthropic was released was announced weeks within weeks of the Google deal compared that to the anthropics deal with SpaceX they're paying $3,800 per GPU per month

and the deal was announced basically at the same time and you have to wonder why I think the answer is they're down to pay a ridiculous price because they are a shareholder and because they

“know that if they pay that amount then they'll get it back and so I think this is just more evidence”

of how these circular deals are distorting the AI economy it's inflating the revenues of various companies in this case it's inflating SpaceX's revenues if that is indeed what is happening and at the same time it's inflating the valuation which simultaneously inflates Google's valuation it's all getting a little bit weird so I just thought that we should just point that out do you have any final quick words on SpaceX before we wrap this up? I hope he goes to Mars and then

Houston says this is an incredible step for mankind and then cut off our communication from him

I don't know if so the question rather than preaching I think he asked people where they are actually putting their money I haven't shorted a stock in a long time and I don't think I'm going to short SpaceX because I mean stock and it's just you know and I wouldn't recommend that to anybody because I showed a game stop during the mean phenomena and I shorted it at $400 in the next morning I went to 600 and I was sitting there going but it makes no sense it's like the markets like

hold my beer on what makes sense or what doesn't right and fortunately I had the capital hold on and I'm making money what I am considering doing is looking at all these other I thought

“all these different AI and space companies were all going to trade up I think there's a lot of”

crap out there I think there's a lot of AI companies trading for a billion or three billion that are

basically I think there's that one food delivery thing that has these little robots the new AI company whatever it is right I think there's a lot of I for the first time and again not financial advice is what I'm I'm getting a list of kind of a dozen a dozen companies that have benefited from this AI you know IPO Mania and I'm going to create a basket and do some long-dated long-dated puts out of the money puts all right because this does feel I am now confident saying

this absolutely feels like 99 again yeah I mean this does feel this changed the game this space like IPO changed again I sure so yeah your thought said no I think that's I think that's interesting I personally won't because I'm afraid of shorting and I just think that it's such a difficult game to win but I do want to see your basket and maybe I'll change my mind once you send it to me we'll be right back after the break and if you're enjoying the show send it to a

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VA and TA dot com slash markets we're back with profty markets inflation rose 4.2% in May from a year ago marking the highest reading in three years meanwhile real wages fail

for the second straight month meaning Americans are once again seeing prices rise faster than their

incomes that puts even more pressure on the federal reserve ahead of Wednesday's interest rate decision it'll be the first meeting with Kevin Wash serving as governor and investors are increasingly betting that the fed may need to stay aggressive on calcium the odds are they rate height before

“2022 7 have climbs to roughly 50% and if you remember at the start of the year the odds were in”

the single digits so Scott this inflation report were up to 4.2% I'll just point out that before we had the tariffs essentially the inflation that Trump inherited was 2.3% then we put on the tariffs and it rises to 3% within a year and then we add this war and Iran on top of that and a straight that remains blockaded and we keep on hearing about a deal but then we also see that we're striking Iran striking missiles in Iran Trump is now saying anyone wants to take carguerland

and see add that war on top of it you add on the inflation on in oil prices and we are now at 4.2% we're above 4% we're more than two full percentage points above the fed's target rate there's a lot to say here about this inflation report why would you like to start so let's just

“for reference point let's compare it to some other G7 countries or neighbors Mexico were at 4.2”

Mexico's at 3.9 the eurozone is at 3.2 Canada our neighborhood of the north we put these ridiculous tariffs on despite that and 70% of their export market being to the US their inflation is at 2.8

UK 2.8 Japan 1.4 in China kind of our economic rival their inflation 1.2% and the problem is

that most people don't understand the power of compounding so they hear 4.2 and they think oh that's nothing my mortgage is 6% my auto loans a percent my interest on my credit card is 15% so just to do some math if you were if inflation were to stay like this and you had a baby when that kid was ready to go to college and I may sound like a long way away but trust me it goes faster than you think and you know see about their indifferent when you file the fucking

way home and miss the next game but anyway all of a sudden the tuition if inflation were to just keep compounding the way it is now and you had a baby when that kid goes to say USC with a tuition is $68,000 that means tuition is going to be $136,000 if we in academia don't continue to raise tuition faster than inflation which we've done for the last 40 years people have a tough time imagining anything in 18 years so let's just go out your kid starts a USC as a freshman

if inflation were to continue going at 4.4% that means a new car which usually costs $49,000

number may sound innocent it's not. I think that's an important point but it has a very big

“if in the statement which is if this remains at about 4% for the next several years but I can”

tell you as most people do not think that that will happen most people on Wall Street do not think

that would happen if that did happen it would be basically a gigantic disaster for the entire

US economy especially if we see that the wage growth continues to be lower than the price growth so I take your point but there are a lot of big ifs down so I guess my question now would follow up with you is do you believe that this is kind of lost you said yes I don't but if Trump had his way we risk inflation go to 8 to 12% because he would vote to cut interest rate for a short term bump in his popularity which could create a panic buying in an upward spiral inflation I mean

it's not it's not a thinkable to think inflation could go to 8 to 10% fuck it's not it I mean inflation starts can the fear the real panic is that people start thinking I got to get rid of my cash because asset prices are going up so fast so whenever people get cash in our container they don't haul onto it they're transitioning to Bitcoin or the buy something and to think that that can happen here is to ignore what's happened with every fiat currency and history that eventually

the political pressure to print more money and not be physically responsible always any

see about fiscal responsibility and to put too much money facing to chasing too few products so will it likely happen no could it absolutely and what people also don't recognize is that inflation has yet another transfer of wealth from earners to owners inflation has been out of control in Argentina since the end of world or two but the same wealthy families are still wealthy because if you own land if you own assets I'm hedged against inflation because I own a bunch of real estate

known a bunch of stocks and as inflation goes up so does the price of rent so does the price of buying an iPhone so my Apple shares in my house goes up in value who gets fucked is you and everyone else on this podcast who's wages do not keep pace with inflation so again inflation is especially difficult on earners versus owners and it's yet another transfer of wealth emerged owners thereby increasing income inequality and when you talk about dissatisfaction and anger again I love that basic

premise that revolutions aren't started by people who are unemployed it started by people who were working too jobs and are still hungry so inflation the Fed's job you know Fed is to keep employment

at a certain level or unemployment below a certain level and to ensure inflation never gets out

of control but that is the wrong order they know that inflation is the thing that brings down nations not a not unemployment yeah I'm just looking through some of the increases in prices here I mean obviously f as a way up 27% year of a gasoline all types of gasoline up 41% fuel oil up

“59% year of a year but it isn't just oil prices that are causing the harm here I think as”

I mean there are some downstream effects and it's kind of this awful combination of the tariffs combined with the war blocking the straightaway moves so you've got a non-alcoholic beverage prices up on the 6% fruit and vegetable prices up more than 6% and meat prices up 7.5% so what we have here are exploding grocery prices which as you say is really attacks on lower and middle income households in America generally speaking the richest households aren't all that worried about the

price of groceries going up but it really eats at your purchasing power if you are in the lower quintile earner so that is a real problem I think the question I mean you say inflation could get to 8% of 9% like I agree but I think anything can happen in general I think what we want to be

“doing and thinking about is what is the most likely scenario I think that a lot of people believe”

or the sort of the consensus is that this is temporary and it's going to come down and the reason for that belief is that they believe that Trump is going to resolve the issues in Iran and that we're going to come to some semblance of a deal with Iran and all of the oil that's being blocked up in the straightaway moves is going to flow again and then prices are going to come back down. That is generally the consensus when you look at prices and also when I speak with people on

Wall Street where I speak with Wall Street analysts when I speak with economists like that is the general

I find interesting I would want to hear from you your thoughts on that my view is when nowhere close to being done here and I've been saying this since it started I mean when he launched the attacks

“he said Trump said that it was going to take four weeks I think he then pushed it to maximum”

five weeks as soon as this began the first thing I did is I went back and I found that dolled

runs felt quote saying that the Iraq war would be eight weeks and pointed out a very simple fact which was that it was eight years and then we had the same thing with Afghanistan where they said it would be a few months and it ended up being two decades so my view from the beginning was this is going to be way longer and way more drawn out than anyone would expect why because wars are extremely difficult and we have a very very strong substantive track record of saying it's going

to be this amount of time and then it ends up being way way longer so as of today we're into week 14 so we're in month three now and still we have this assumption oh it's going to resolve in some way Trump's going to kind of figure it out he's going to taco on the war which I personally think is a lot more difficult to taco on warfare versus tariffs I just don't see it happening so this goes back to expectations for what inflation is going to look like over the long term

“I think we're going to stick around here for a long time and I can expand on that but I want to”

hear from you and and your views on what this means and what it'll look like going forward over the next few months and then we can get into inflation expectations longer term. You made a compelling argument you kind of broke down loosely speaking that at where at four percent and we'd be at two if it wasn't for the war and Iran and these tariffs that literally our inflation is up from what is a target inflation rate of two percent to four percent based on

self-inflicted injury and as it relates to Iran there's two concepts the first is when officers are evaluating subordinates in terms of decisions and they spend a lot of time analyzing decisions that were made what they do is they say it's not it's not the outcome that determines what the officer made the right decision they go back and say at that moment given the information available to the officer make the right decision and going back to

so first off in Iran you at the very beginning said this is a quiet matter it's a bad idea this

“will go longer than anyone expects I said I think this could be a good idea you were right I was wrong”

and going back the idea of toppling a wobbling regime newtoring the navy further further defending the missile capabilities further staunching the flow of capital and resources to their proxies I thought there was a real opportunity and had we I believe signed up some European allies done a better job of analyzing the threats to our Gulf neighbors securing the states of foremost before that an opportunity to start wreaking havoc there and quite frankly

going in having very strict narrow military objectives and then leaving I still hold the effect that there was an argument for this now the second concept is what I call or Hillary Clinton teaches a class and one of the concepts is the dominion of failure and that is when you're in an argument with someone and you make a point and then they come back aggressively at you it's human nature to double down and then once you double down on your argument you're sort of invested and you're into

deep and you keep and you can another is never happening but you find yourself arguing at

point I'm like I don't even agree with what I'm saying but it's too late you've crossed the chasm you've you've staked your reputation in that moment of dinner on whatever your point was right the problem is when you're supposed to be a leader you're supposed to be able to have the maturity and be a fiduciary for the people's responsibility to basically not fall under the trap of the dominion of failure and go you know what I fucked up I was wrong and my intentions were good but I

was wrong we need to change policy a step back from the wrong direction is a step in the right direction there is no getting around that anyone like myself that was supportive of military action

in the beginning based on how this has played out and the the incredible incompetence and lack

of coordination of our allies lack of respect for briefing Congress our inability to trust the Trump would understand anything about game theory and basically saying I'm at a dodge but you better do what you better do what I say as he's leaving realizing that not only does he have no cards but his cards are turned upside down and they can see our cards this has been a fucking disaster and anyone advocating for it has to like like myself I remember having freed Zakaria on and

been a mistake of epic proportions it has left us with literally no good options at this point I understand the calls to withdraw immediately take our licks my attitude is at this point it's it's quite frankly it's hard to leave right now and this is the clagmar because we're gonna end up we're gonna end up with less than nothing if we don't show a willingness to at least go some distance at the same time I understand the calls of like let's just take our licks and get out but

just to summarize here this has been an unmitigated disaster and one of the one of the unfortunate thing about our politics and our systems and quite frankly the public is that the public appears to want leaders that will double down on something wrong rather than ever say ever acknowledge yeah we think we made the right decision given the information we had at the time it was the wrong decision and we're changing course no politician ever gets rewarded for

that type of maturity right now and so what do we see everyone just doubles down doubles down and goes further down into the dominion of failure hundred percent and this is what Trump's philosophy is all about that his his slogan or at least from reporting and if you go watch the movie the

apprentice you know this his his slogan is never admit defeat the right home method of communications

that was who he learned it from and now it does appear that philosophy is governing global geopolitics

“and as a result the entire economy of America and I think it's such an important and good point”

this dominion of failure point because I mean we should I I think it's such a respectable thing to change your mind and to decide that and have the courage to say I think actually there is a different path forward and I I'm gonna go back on my decision I think that I was wrong that is like a very very difficult thing to say especially today especially in a world of social media where everyone's tracking what everyone's saying and especially in a Trump era of politics and it's something

it's a lost art form that could literally be the erasure of trillions of dollars and could mean altering the life trajectory of millions of Americans is our unwillingness to say specifically

from the trend administration here to say I was wrong he's never going to do it and that is going

to be such a problem and again to your point this is why my belief is that this is going to go on a lot longer because he's never I mean he's unwilling to admit defeat on small issues this is the most important difficult issue in the world do we really believe that he's gonna be okay with saying actually we're gonna pull everyone out and we're gonna call it a day and admit that we were wrong on this so that we didn't execute properly I mean maybe he'll try to do it and he'll lie about it

and say actually it was a win for these reasons and then the rest of us will know but I mean when you're dealing with troops on the ground when you're dealing with missiles when you're literally dealing with people's lives it becomes very very difficult to do that and so my expectation I don't think that he's gonna make a deal with Iran or resolve it anytime soon because I don't

think that he is willing to to reverse course this isn't his entire principle he never ever wants to do

“this so I think that the oil is gonna remain blocked for the foreseeable future I will I will note”

that when you look at the amount of oil that is blocked up right now and this was researched from the Institute of Energy Research it comes out to around 6% of global oil supply so it's actually lower than you might expect and the reason for that is yes the Middle East accounts for nearly a third of the global oil supply but about a quarter of it takes alternative routes around the street which leaves around 20% of it at risk and a third of it currently is fully blocked my expectation

is that that amount will remain blocked for the foreseeable future so so my view is I don't think we're gonna hit 8, 9, 10% inflation like we did in 2022 but I do think that inflation is gonna continue to rise for two reasons one I think these oil prices that we have already seen are still they still need

“time to funnel through the rest of the economy and two I think as this goes on you're gonna see”

higher oil price expectations which will lead to higher oil prices outright and so I don't know if you remember my prediction earlier in the year was that we would hit 4 1/2% inflation by the end of the year a lot of people said that I had Trump during during syndrome for saying that

true I will now update that prediction give them what we're seeing today I think we will hit

“probably at least 5% inflation but more importantly I think we'll remain there for at least 6”

months I think that this is going to be extremely drawn out extremely problematic there are then all the other implications that the come as a result of that for example rate hikes I think rate hikes are inevitable market seem to think it's a coin flip I don't see any world in which you don't raise raise rates at this point especially with the unemployment data which came in better than expected which means that the Fed has one target now which is inflation and two

landslide victory for the Democrats at the mid turns I just think this price thing is such a

problem for so many Americans they're so angry about it they were already so angry about it and I think that they understand that there is one person that is responsible for all of it as you said self-inflicted injuries and that one person is Donald Trump and that's going to be their message their moment to send that message to Trump to send that message to the Republican party and I do think it's going to be a landslide what that will mean for markets I'm not so sure

I haven't quite thought that far in the future but there is a very very scary sequence events

“that I think you can pretty much gain out and we'll see but that's where I stand on it at the moment”

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we're back with profti markets the world cup is finally here over the next six weeks millions

of fans will travel across north america to watch the world's most popular sporting event but before a single trophy is lifted one thing has already grabbed the headlines and that is ticket process the cheapest seats for the final at met life stadium are selling for more than seven thousand dollars in several US host cities the cheapest tickets for the tournament's later rounds cost more than the average monthly mortgage payment so Scott we got out just acknowledged

how excited we are about the world cup of course but this has been a really interesting issue here

i think many people would agree with that too and now it's sort of on display what they're doing

“to get and make the most amount of money proff as possible and some would say kind of grifting”

people who are attending the cup i'll just give you some numbers here FIFA expects to generate

three billion dollars in ticket revenue this year that's compared to nine hundred million dollars

at the last world cup so they've increased their revenue by 230% adjusted for inflation ticket prices are up roughly a thousand percent since the last time the US host of the world cup in 1994 ticketing historically counts for around 10% of world cup revenue this year it will account for 27% and the average resell ticket price today for the world cup is more than one thousand dollars there are many questions is to why prices are up so much and one of the big reasons

which i'd love to get into here is that FIFA for the first time ever is employing dynamic pricing and what does that mean they used to sell tickets at a fixed price but now they are changing it and they're basically algorithmically adjusting the price based on supply and demand dynamics that's one thing and then two they're also launching their own resale platform where they sell

“all of the tickets and then if you want to resell your ticket you can go on FIFA's website and you can”

resell your ticket and FIFA will take a 15% cut from the buyer and the seller on every sale so some really interesting pricing strategies here this dynamic pricing thing is also becoming a huge political issue so much to get into here i will start with your thoughts on FIFA's pricing strategy and what you make of it if you look at FIFA's an organization they have the right to price tickets and there's two sides of the trade if you don't if you don't want to pay the money then don't don't

don't go to the world cup just so be my fourth world cup i was a guitar or tickets were a quarter of the price that they are now but for that i was in moscowd and i or brush out and say moscowd seemed perfect i don't remember and i went to the 1994 world cup in the US and every time i go or every world cup i take my boys to take a ton of pictures and it's a nice mark or a time i'm absolutely gonna go this time i make it very good living and the tickets to the final in New York

where i was really excited about and i want to go i went to the final the last two times were um uh the cheaper ones or seven thousand dollar ones as far as i know when i checked are sold out there were good seeds like there's three categories two or one two and two or three two or one states to the final grounded not everyone has a birthright nor should go to the final there's thirty eight thousand dollars yeah and just to give you a sense for that when i last

when i the first time i went to the world cup in 1994 the an average ticket cost fifty eight dollars and the most expensive ticket for the final was four hundred and seventy five dollars so if you in jessie you say we'll scoured out of inflation okay that's a hundred thirty one dollars average and the most expensive ticket inflation adjusted in 1994 was a thousand dollars a thousand and sixty nine dollars now it's thirty eight thousand what it represents more than anything it's a

think of whether you think FIFA's cropped or not a fine they get to do what they want in terms of dynamic pricing it's that the one percent who goes to the world cup super fans and the one percent because it is expensive to go you know to fly to Monterey or Mexico or Vancouver to see a soccer

game that's a luxury item and the reality is the one percent and you can even argue the 10 percent

“have garnered all of the gains and that's why you've seen no one likes to talk about it but inflation”

at high end hotels has gone crazy yeah rich people inflation if you have an asset that appeals to rich people and you can create a sense of scarcity your pricing powers out of control because one the rich have exploded their wealth right too there's a change in zeitgeist where people realize rich people are generally older they just got through covid and they're like I'm going to be dead soon why wouldn't I pay thirty eight thousand dollars to go to the world cup I'm going to be

dead soon and I have money why wouldn't I so you have this kind of yellow versus massive demand from people from the rich who have a lot more money and then you have FIFA who's made the following strategic choice they get to make this choice traditionally they have price their tickets below

the market price because 80 to 90 percent of the revenues come from tv and essentially the fans

in the stadium were a feature of creating electricity that would come through the tv screen and so they would save tickets in the less aspirational places for all the Croatians that actually got on a fucking plane and came to Qatar because seeing those crazy Croatians in the semi-finals of

through on the tv so what they've decided to say because here's the bottom line anyone buying

those thirty eight thousand dollar tickets they're not going to paint their faces they're just not they're going to be like trumpet the next game they're going to fall asleep halfway through and then they're going to leave in the third quarter they're going to be wearing suits and sucking down pimps cups and saying what an interesting game yeah this fear is awesome and like who is this Ronald O character I mean these are not fans these are people who get invited by corporations right

yes and so you're you're substituting what FIFA has done as they've made a choice we're going to we're going to go out to the efficient frontier we're going to take every dollar off the table

“and we're going to sacrifice vibe easy for me to say but I don't think that's what a non-profit should”

be doing and what is kind of the beautiful game I think they should be getting me I mean so for example

rock bands do a really good job of this what they do is they say if you sign up to be a super fan so I think I'm an official fan of Empire the Sun and they go out initially to Empire the Sun fans and say we've reserved a certain number of tickets for you because they want hardcore fans and the audience for the vibe so this is anyway it's a long-winded way of saying training FIFA's made a strategic decision to trade off vibe that they used to come through the TV where they

get most of the revenues to maximize ticket revenue I hope they get stuck with a lot of tickets I know that's a terrible thing to say but similar to F1 and Vegas where they vastly over estimated demand in like sold 40% of capacity I kind of like to see them e-crow a little bit here I think they'll just drop the prices and probably sell out well he's the thing they've already sold out

on the first round they've sold all of their tickets I mean there was the headline that you might have

seen that there are almost 180,000 tickets that are still yet to be sold which by the way is true but they've yet to be resold what we've seen happen is that FIFA crushed it in terms of navigating supply and demand dynamics and people some people are saying they artificially sort of misconstrued what the demand would look like they sold all of those tickets and now there are 180,000 tickets that other people who have already bought those original tickets are trying to

“now resell and so the resell price has fallen 20% over the past month but the most important point”

here is that that doesn't matter for FIFA very much because they already sold the ticket now what's going to happen is because they have their resell portal they're going to sell it twice and they're going to take the 15% cut of whatever that now discounted ticket prices but FIFA is going to be fine from this perspective so in terms of how they've navigated extracting the most amount of profits possible from the system they've really done a good job here they have crushed it to their

bottom line the question now is which parts of this were legal which parts of this do we think should be illegal if they're not currently illegal and now we're seeing a lot of investigations into FIFA so there were 69 congress members that signed a letter to Gianni Infantino who's the president of FIFA and they were criticizing his pricing strategy they said that it was quote the most financially exclusionary and inaccessible world cup to date that doesn't really hold that

much water they're just complaining so that they can kind of impress their constituents but we have seen attorneys general in New York and in New Jersey and in Texas who are opening investigations into FIFA's pricing strategy Texas is investigating whether they violated the Texas deceptive trade practices act and the concerns that they cite are opaque pricing artificial scarcity and dynamic pricing that quietly raises rates all of that to me sounds

super valid it sounds like that is exactly the kind of strategy that they am it's also with the airlines that's the thing and Infantino said well if this is the problem with me then this is a problem

“across the rest of America and so this is why I think this is really important story here because”

this dynamic pricing thing is becoming a huge political issue now not just in the world of sports but across everything grocery stores is now the big concern because a lot of these grocery stores like target and Walmart and Whole Foods they're all experimenting with these digital price labels which allows them to adjust the price instantaneously and they're now employing that strategy and all of these state legislatures across the US and now thinking do we need to fundamentally rethink

the way that we regulate dynamic and instantaneous pricing because with AI with algorithms you can essentially just jack up the prices even based on your personal consumer data I mean you could essentially realize that there's a rich person who walked into the store let's change the price because we know that they will they will be down to pay more really interesting regulatory questions here emerging and it's almost as if the world cup is kind of the case study

of a box of tamp tampons to 40 bucks if it's a dude buying him because like yeah that's

“fine put it in the back I want to go ahead go ahead but what you're talking about is most”

service contractors walk into a home if it's a nice home I mean not that they shouldn't do

this what do you think their price estimate is when they walk into a multi-million dollar home

to hang curtains or do landscaping right that there's dynamic pricing everywhere that the story that's been under-reported I like to talk a lot about brand management when I went to the world cup in Russia first off you're supposed to get a visa to go to Russia even back then we had very tensed relationships with Russia and you know what they said they said take a picture of you with your ticket that's your visa take a picture with you next year ticket and we send you a visa

and I'm telling you they were I don't know if they threatened to imprison people or not or they're just a very friendly people you could not go 50 feet without someone saying welcome to saying Petersburg where you from and it was such a great and they handled it so well

and it was such a great event the nation of Qatar I'm not a big fan of Qatar 14 billion dollars

“in international funding to U.S. Center for universities for have come from Qatar I think it's a”

very important question what do they want to exchange I had an amazing time in Doha and it couldn't have been better produced better managed and I I have warm feelings or less cold feelings towards Qatar we are harassing incredibly well respected football officials from Somali and in turning them back to Istanbul we are pulling bullshit on Iranian managers and not granting them visas I mean we are acting like just such assholes while the world's eyes are on us and people again this administration

fails to realize soft power is the real power here how people feel about you and I think a lot of people are just saying fuck it do I really want to go to a nation that does people when I went to

Russia people said you know aren't you worried isn't it dangerous I have never felt safer you could

just tell word came down treat tourists like they're you know treat them really well and I imagine a guitar if you got ever fucked with a tourist you might you know you might not be heard from again and in to set instead in the U.S. we've decided oh no let's start harassing people at the border including really esteemed football officials people you know on teams and coaches and players from nations where we are at not war at military action whatever you want to call it these moves

98% of people in the world are never going to come to America 90% of them are never going to be an American so their decision to send their kids to a school here to invest in you a stocks to maybe alert the embassy about a terrace cell they've heard is being formed here that has plans to harm us or our troops all of those things come down to how do people feel about the American brand and it used to be the strongest brand in the world the other of nexus the other aggressive

but their hearts in the right place and we are losing big but they're but they're we are losing that good will through just anyways I'm I'm I'm beside myself and saving 38 thousand dollars and by the way it's reflected in prices if you look at the f app prices which have obviously gone way up in combination with gas prices and also the world cup the prices that are exploding aren't the transit landtick prices to the host cities the prices are exploding are the domestic

flights between different host cities it's interesting so what we're seeing there is it's the Americans are going to be showing up and it might be that we see a lot less of the foreigners showing up for many of the reasons that you point out just one final point is thinking about the

“the economic impacts of this world cup and I think it's going to be enormous like we saw that”

in the job recent jobs report that leisure and hospitality services exploded and really carry that number a lot of people think it's because of the world cup and all the jobs that it might create but then there are also the costs I mentioned the f app prices also the hotel prices and the host cities that have really really skyrocketed up 80% year of a year and 13 of those locations but then also really interesting transportation costs specifically public transportation costs

so a new jersey transit ticket from Penn Station to MetLife it usually costs about $13 for the world cup they hyped it up to $150 they got a lot of pushback and they reduced it back down to around a hundred but this has become a real problem for a lot of people we're seeing it in a lot of cities

as opposed to taking public transportation and this was a clip that we saw on our social media

feeds this was a guy who was talking about this strategy let's play this clip and get your reaction is it possible to just walk from New York City to MetLife Stadium and New Jersey I'm a find out so I went on Google Maps and I found a route that was 11 miles long and would only take four and a half hours to walk but it was all on sidewalks so I grabbed a pair of shoes that turns out

“had no arts support and headed off across the George Washington Bridge which is the only way to get”

from Manhattan Indian New Jersey this is the only walkable bridge across the Hackensack River and given that you can't park it MetLife Stadium and the shuttle bus is going to be $80 round trip I think a lot of fans are going to try to make this vlog so affordability is now such a problem that we're going to walk along the highway to get to MetLife from New York City to MetLife Stadium

what do you make of this cut when my dad got divorced for the third or fourth time

he was living alone and a caliph lord on a mattress and he got half the furniture in the divorce and he had a little one bedroom and there was furniture everywhere like he could move around like there was furniture stacked on furniture and he was using as a blanket my NFL sleeping bag from when I was eight years old and I didn't see him in a while it was excited to see him and he's like oh let's go grab a few drinks you know and he's like yeah we're going to be

able to responsible you know on a drinking drive we're going to walk and we're walking I'm like let's just take a cab dad and he's like no no no no no we walked three miles to the local red onion to drink with some of the most unfortunate people and then walk home to where my dad went to sleep under my NFL sleeping bag from when when I was eight and I literally thought myself I thought to

“myself god I just I'm so impressed he's like not really depressed right now I'm I remember thinking”

you know I was like 22 23 at the time remember thinking what's I need to think about this what series of bad decisions led my father to walking through miles from the red onion after two for one night back to his apartment it was jammed it was jammed full of furniture he wasn't willing to give up in the divorce oh god I mean it is truly insane things got better though when he decided to move in with three other guys who were all prison guards at the local calipan attention

you know when you realize your dad your dad doesn't make great decisions all the time yeah mile two on the way to the red onion did you have a question did you have a question him like hey I don't know if we like maybe we shouldn't like what do you kind of just go with it and no I don't know it's just I I should have I didn't I didn't see like my dad was not I could tell my dad was not doing well I don't know if he fortunately my dad was too self-absorbed and non-thoughtful

to really recognize and a sober fashion the life he was leading like he just thank God he did not have Instagram but I remember I was working an investment banking a Morgan Stanley and living a semi fabulous life in New York for a 23 year old and I remember going to a calipf Lord I'm thinking Jesus Christ anyway said anyway don't study hard don't do drugs don't get divorced for

“times yeah exactly I think the fight probably the final messages don't walk to mat life stadium”

from New York City I mean if you're yeah I don't think that's a good idea yeah I'm not sure not sure that that is worth it okay let's take a look at the week ahead Scott we will see the import price index and US retail sales for May all eyes will be on Kevin Wash for the Fed's next interest rate decision it will be his first time delivering the address as Fed chair do you have any predictions we're about to see the biggest manufactured scarcity which will

result in a non-priced or a price disparity between price and value the likes of which we have never seen

we are going to see the greatest transfer of wealth from consumers to an investment since crypto and it's based on manufactured scarcity and I believe what happened was the following must said you know what I own 40% of this company if it goes up 20% more based on non-doentral demand by being put in the NASDAQ 100 that takes the value from 2.2 trillion to 2.4 that's an incremental

wouldn't must be stupid not to call the president say hey why wouldn't you let great American retail investors have access one of the great American companies call your buddy Paul and by the way if you can see your way clear to I don't know getting us in the NASDAQ 100 like unlike any other firm previous line history I might take say one or two percent of my incremental games from this gaming of the system and apply it towards midterm elections which I'm allowed to do because of

citizens united wouldn't must be stupid not to put pressure or bribe the president to take

his stock up 20% resulting in an incremental 160 billion dollars in wealth creation through the

manufactured scarcity that is occurring right now courtesy of a corrupt SEC and president was the prediction but the prediction is musk is going to spend more on the midterms and any individual is

“spent on any election got it okay yeah yeah I think that yeah it's an interesting prediction just”

to follow up on that agreed on the artificial scarcity and the artificial demand but I think we're about what we're about to see is one of the largest selling events in market history over the next six months I think everyone who got the allocation knows that this price is ridiculous for SpaceX I think they need to figure out a way to sell as much of this stock as possible once they have taken their returns and gotten their pop of whatever it might be and so I think that SpaceX

stock will be cut in half over the next six months that's my first prediction second prediction

“I said it before I think inflation reaches 5% and I think it is sustained at around that level”

for at least six months as well this episode was produced by Clay Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer our video editor is Jorge Carty our research team is Dan Schlon Isabella Kinsel Cristina Donahue and Mia Solvario. Jake May 1st and is our social producer drew bars as a technical director and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer thank you for listening to Profi Markets from Profi Media if you like what you heard give us a follow and tune

tomorrow for a fresh take on the markets (Music) Form in the one so hot right now it's like if traders and succession at a baby on wheels teams lying drivers beefing celebrities everywhere and scandals lots of scandals so we made a show about it the red flags podcast where we recap

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“you'll want to hear about yeah and the only thing hotter than the drivers are our takes and now we're”

doing it on vox oh we're so legit now we're basically thought leaders Ted talk incoming

and we do a podcast with Gunter Steiner called Venka hours I still can't believe that's true well believe it there is so much for the beautiful vox media audience to enjoy so come check out the red flags podcast every monday on youtube or wherever you get your podcasts