Bill Kristol: No Kings

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Can't you tell us a real help? Let's start with a test today for an EuroPromonet. On Shopify.de/recoated. Hello and welcome and welcome to podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller. It is Monday.

So we are back with Editor at Large Bill Crystal. Bill's grandchildren suffered a devastating defeat over the weekend. We're going to save that for the end. We'll do some life lessons. It's important.

You know, if you have children or grandchildren have been disappointed recently, there's things that can be learned from that. We'll save that from the end. But we'll start with some positives. The no-kings, rallies, we're happening over the weekend.

I was in attendance at the New Orleans event. It looks like you're somewhere much chillier in the Northeast. What were your takeaways? It was cold in Welfan, Massachusetts. I should come to New Orleans to the next one. I was in Boston for various other reasons.

And went to the event with a couple of friends, their families, actually in Welfan, younger friends. It was great. It was great. It's a little different from a client.

But client Virginia is ex-republicanish types, many of whom I know I've lived here so long.

“And also, you know, hey, I remember you from, you know, this McCain event or from the Bush”

Administration, or I weekly standards subscribers, Welfan, which is a Western suburb of Massachusetts grandizes there. It's a little past Cambridge and Belmont, all those places. It's more like I used to hate you. Yeah. That was more of that.

I can't believe we're on the same side here, 20 years ago I was in this very place protesting against you. You know, it was a little different vibe. But everyone was friendly. And I was struck by just the, I mean, since it was a more lefty view, well, group.

But they were all sensible to first, I could tell.

There were a lot of American flags. There was an attempt to keep on the basic message. But there was not those speeches. This was a, you know, a fast people, whatever, a honking. And but very upbeat bands kind of marching around playing, would he got three, but

also the battle him with the Republic. And so I came away pretty, pretty inspired, actually pretty impressed. What about you and New Orleans? Yeah, we had speeches, which were good and, you know, a lot of local activist groups. It's funny.

On the internet, this even actually eaks up into real life. I did the PBS show in Austin that Evan Smith interviews after our live event a couple weeks ago. And there's Q and A period afterwards and it's a lot of kind of old earnest, kind of NPR. I mean, literally NPR tote bag boomer liberals in this case, and so it was PBS.

Right. Okay. Two of them asked me that I can, my granddaughter, my son doesn't think this is cool to go to the no kings protest or not engaging, you know, they think it's only for corporate liberals.

And it's nothing. It's going to actually get done.

“And I was kind of saying to them, I don't, I don't think you should worry about that.”

I think there's value to doing it. And it's funny. When you get out there in the real world, the no kings are not on just like everybody. You know, there is the communist set of booths and, you know, and, you know, then there are the staff, people dressed as the statue of Liberty and you're the former Republicans

that I had a guy come out to me and say, "You're my second favorite podcaster besides

this Han Piker." I was like, "Okay." Well, that's an interesting pairing, but people are more complicated in the real world. And I think that people have a lot of very different views and I think everybody I talked to felt good to be out there, it was a good crowd, registering descent, organizing, planning

other stuff. And I think it's valuable for that for local organizing as well, you know, getting people more engaged, particularly somewhere like Louisiana. To me, I think that the biggest element of success, sometimes you like to figure skate judge this stuff and it's like, "Was it big enough?"

And was there an exact result the next day, and to me, like my big takeaway from a glass half-full standpoint is there was a widespread diverse but clear message coming from the opposition, which is that we don't like the lawless rule from this president and some of us are really focused on Iran and others on Epstein and others on the economy and others on other stuff, some of us are mad about everything.

But like there is a united opposition posed the lawlessness of this administration and coming

But for the second no kings, they tried a message, which is that these people are all extremists

“in Antifa and their radicals, and if you really love America, you should be on our side.”

That was like the message they kicked around before no kings wanted to. And they didn't even really do that this time. I mean, there was nothing coming out of the White House, the Republican National Committee, at a homophobic joke about Tim Walls, and I'm just like, "Okay, this is the best you've got." Whatever.

I mean, it's a tribute to the no kings, to the rallies, and to the organizers of the rallies, I would say, and to visible in others who really did a, I think again, it's a horrific job that that message flopped so badly in October about these her anti-American terrorists and, you know, Communists and so forth, that they've just decided to hope, I suppose, that the Trump people and that, you know, this just passes by quickly and they can think

ignoring it, it was better, but that's a tribute to the no kings people. I would say, the only thing I wanted to point out, I was struck by people like you, which I'm sure for instance, had any people who were in real cities, and they were speeches,

“and it was a little more organized, people had booths, but striking in Wallfam where we're”

on the town common, you know, they all have these comments up there in New England, where I'm acclaimed here, what I was there at October and Susan was there this time, is it really is just people getting together. And that's impressive, you know, there's no entertainment, I mean, there are people, you know, sex person put together in prom to band kind of thing, but they just came out and they

wanted to show, you know, show the flags, speak literally in some cases, and the signs were 90 percent, I'm going to say homemade, I mean, and very diverse for that reason, because people had their own things, and some were funny, and some tried to be funny, were funny, and some were, some were big, and some were small, and it was really, I found that part

kind of moving, I mean, one thing that always put me off, I'm not a big protest person,

anyway, and of course, it's not that the conservative signs up, but one thing that always put me off at these photos is the kind of the mass chance as a slightly creepy overtones sometimes of, you know, but there was almost none of that here, it was genuine civic activism, I've got to say. I should say the gentleman that said that I was a second favorite podcast, or was dressed

up as a superhero, I couldn't identify, so, you know, you get them and all, you get them and all flavors out there, I'm with you, it's not my most comfortable space, the protest, to candor, you know, it's just not where I, where I've was built for, but I feel like for there are other folks who are who is very important, and it's valuable, and community

“building, and I think that that's good, and I think that it's good to demonstrate that”

folks aren't going to be intimidated or scared, and the fact that even if it does lose a little bit of its urgency for no kings for, which I assume there will be one, that is a good sign, right, that, you know, I think if you look at like what happened to Minneapolis, for example, where it was, the protesting was very urgent, because people in their community were being menaced, you know, the fact that folks stood out there and demonstrated strength,

and demonstrated that they can't be bullied, mattered, and then that kind of opens the door for having these, that are a little bit more, and a festival spirit or whatever. There's one ominous thing, treated by one congressperson, I just, I do want to mention, because I don't want to let him get away with it. Well, Louisiana congressman Clay Higgins, he posted this, this is a very strange post,

it was a, had four pictures of people from various no kings, rowing, and, and he tweets, we were carefully observing, that was pretty much a flawless operation. We have millions of digital images, billions of identifying data points, height, weight, shoe size, tattoos, gate, all of it, AI, eats that stuff, success. So, essentially, a Republican congressman saying that whatever, ICBP, Palantir was gathering

pictures of people who showed up to those rallies, and was going to use that for future attempts to crack down on a free population. I'm not really too scared of the, that's going to be successful, but it is, it's pretty alarming that that's, you know, where an elected official in a free country is, is trying to take things.

I mean, if they are doing that, Palantir and DHS and all, they're kind of trying to cover it up, right?

They always deny they're doing it, which, and he shows they kind of recognize they shouldn't

be doing it, to have an actual elected member of Congress, sort of championing it and celebrating it is, you know, genuinely creepy. It shows how authoritarian, I mean, he's not maybe typical, but he's not a typical exactly, and how authoritarian, how unabashed with the authoritarian, the spirit, I'm just not saying anything new, but the spirit of the Trump Republican Party is, I like to

shoot size, that's kind of a Rubio, that was kind of, I thought, a floor shines, Marko Rubio kind of thing, I don't know what it is, it's like, well, they're kind of, maybe shoot size was, it was like, you know, subconsciously in his mind because of the ludicrous of the, of Trump giving the oversized shoes to Rubio. I don't know where the Gates analysis came from, but, you know, this was a big thing

that the Glenn Beck outlet that they decided that the pipe bomber, that's right, that's where

Yeah, they split it. Yeah, they split it. And, you know, who was the January 6 police officer saying that she was the pipe bomber, based on gate analysis, and then a couple days later that the I arrested, like, when the only people's cash is successfully arrested, somebody that that admitted to being the January

6 pipe bomber. And that the blaze, I was not backing down. They're just, they're just another post just last week about how this man that they arrested, that his gate does not match the gate of the person on the video. The only time I'd ever heard gate was like, at Churchill down, it's like, in the horse context.

Like, does the horse have a good gate?

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I want to go to the latest from Iran. It's good to set the table. Your newsletter was very good this morning, and it kind of tied the no king's message with what was happening in Iran and the lack of action from Congress and you referenced a letter as is your want from Lincoln to his friend regarding Polk entering war with

Mexico. Yeah. And Lincoln was upset or in opposition to the unilateral engagement of war with Mexico and this letter. It was another winner, it was Yates last week, Lincoln this week.

Everyone's well, you have some misses on the news letter with your historical references,

“but I thought this one was also right on the nose, so why don't we start there?”

Yeah. So Lincoln was against the Mexican war. I think part of that in granted was slavery expansion and another grounds as well just unjust war and also that Polk could sort of even laterally decide it to both do it and then we had a fake justification for it.

Anyway, so if he gave a speech in Congress, decided to stand it and he was a member of the House for one term 1847 to 49 in January 1848 he gives a speech, denouncing Polk for taking the country to war on his own say so, a false say so, Lincoln claimed is law partner herndon, or I guess it's back in Illinois, writes about letter, sort of defending saying oh, but the executive's got to have this discretion and so we don't have Hergen's letter.

We have, I'll just read maybe a couple of sentences, we have Lincoln's letter which is you can see in the complete Lincoln works here and and and and certainly I did not like remember this to find this myself, other people have cited this online in the last few weeks. Oh, come on, we don't even have to, sometimes not like yates, I actually don't like remembered.

This is, other people have said, yeah, so I looked it up however, I mean Lincoln's fantastic

you know, so he says first of all, your position as I understand it is that the president

can invade the territory of another country and whether there's a necessity to do so in any case, the president is to be the sole judge, so it was very apt to the current moment and he says, you know, allow the president to invade a nation whenever he should deem a necessary and you allow him to do so whenever he may choose to say he deems a necessary for such purpose.

You allow him to make war at pleasure.

I understand it like it continues by the following reasons, kings had always been involving

and impoverishing their people in wars, pretending generally if not always, that the good of the people was the object. This is our convention, the Constitutional Convention, understood to be the most oppressive of all kinkly oppressions and they resolved to so frame the constitution that no one man should hold the power of bringing this oppression upon us, but your view destroys the whole

matter and places our president where kings have always stood. It is weirdly apt for the no kings framing.

“And so that's why I have the people I think cited it and why I took their citation”

and cited it myself. Where is Congress right now? It is not just about the vote for the warmaking power, which obviously is the prime issue in controversy.

There have been very few hearings.

I think Roger Wicker is the chairman of the armed services committee in the Senate. He's one of these guys who kind of pretends to be an old school, Reagan, Republican still. The last time Roger Wicker came to my attention, I forget he's in the Senate still a lot of time. He was like wearing a Ukraine and America, joint pin on his lapel.

I forget I was during the state of the union during some prominent hearing and I found myself screaming at my screen. You could do something about this. Those are like right in this moment where Trump was taking away funds from Ukraine. So this is another moment where I may run these committees.

They could have Pete Higgs' S. Over, they could have General Kane over. There's plenty of things to ask about and obviously a vote, authorization of the war is more

“important but just the scale of their abdication, I think, is also highlighted by the fact”

that they're not even doing other elements of kind of basic congressional responsibility. Yeah, we're a month into the war, no public hearings. Some confidential classified hearings not many incidentally and three funds and people have walked out to satisfy, including Wicker himself, but they're being told the lack of clarity or even to information that's being provided and that's it so far as I know.

Nothing to educate the public. The Trump administration does nothing to try to lay out a case for the war or now a case for ground troops, the prospect of which seems imminent or likely or at least very possible. Nothing. It's like we're going to war because one man has decided so we're conducting it in a way

that one man wishes he has the, you know, puts out different messages every day or conflicting messages or threats and promises and claims is the administration's not much more responsible that he is, honestly, I guess the chairman of the Joint Chiefs is a little more is more responsible but he's very careful and very limited in what he says and that in a way is the one place where you're entitled to be careful and limited because it's actual military operations.

I mean, it's very bad for the point of view of democratic governance, the constitutional congressional authority and so the Republicans obviously are to blame for this and the Republicans who control Congress. I think that I also say, I say this I guess in the morning shots a little bit, that Democrats could do more to complain about this and to make more of a fuss and, you know, screaming

yellow about, what are we doing here? Now we're going to have ground troops and there's still no, no hearings, no authorization, no nothing, we can't really at least have a vote on the ground troops find you have bombing for a month, they shouldn't get that away but still they can't do anything about that at this point.

Massive bombing can't pay for months and now substantial numbers of ground troops to the region and maybe engage in combat on Iranians or no congressional nothing. I mean, it really, I think they could be much more indignant upset and outraged about it and it's certainly where Congress littlely is is on recess for two weeks. Two weeks.

Right, I'm passed over to Wednesday and Thursday night, good Friday and then Easter. I give them Wednesday to Sunday off, but maybe they could come back like on next Monday and I'd have a whole another week off and when we're in the middle of a war and Trump's escalating it in very serious and, you know, potentially fateful ways. It is crazy, they're off and I think the Democrats also could do, and they could do stunts

down to here. Yes, down to here. You know, you could go back to the Hill, you could go back on Monday and stand on the steps and have a no war with Iran rally.

“You must vote, you know, we must vote on this war and there are plenty of things you”

could do.

I'll come back to the political in a second.

I sort of give people an update on where we're at. We're doing little updates on the board takes feet over the weekend so you guys can tune into those if you're a real sick out, but private one else. So over the weekend, Trump was kind of signaling increased escalation and troops based on his bleeds on a social media feed and he posted a Mark T. Sin article from Washington Post

where T. Sin was arguing for Trump that losing his nerve and escalating and kind of babies trumps by giving them a rigid kipling poem or, you know, he's like, it's like the

Trump also told people to tune in to Mark Levin, like Liberty and Levin, where Levin was

“talking about sending in ground troops, actual troops have been moved to the Middle”

East, lots of discussion and smoke around this idea that we might go into actually sees the nuclear material, a lot of signaling towards actual ground troops. Then this morning he posts a bleet right before the market's open again saying that U.S. is in serious negotiations with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran.

A great progress has been made at the beginning of the bleet.

Second half of the bleet.

If they don't do that, we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all their electric generating plants, oil wells and carguer island and possibly all desalination plants, which we have purposely not yet touched. So that's the message this morning from Trump, we have a more reasonable regime that we're negotiating with if we don't do it, we'll do war crimes.

I should note that a simultaneously to that bleet's Secretary of State Rubio is on Good Morning America. He's been doing a ton of interviews and he said that there is someone that we're negotiating with, but won't say who because it could get those people in trouble and there are some fractures going on internally in Iran, which doesn't seem that optimistic to me, you know,

“if we can't even say who we're negotiating with, we have to have a secret counterparty”

because everyone in Iran is so mad at us that that counterparty might get, you know, who knows, I don't know, overthrow and if they seem to be too nice to us, I guess that doesn't

really seem to be the thing that you say if you're on the brink of a breakthrough, which

is, we're negotiating with someone who we have to keep in secret because there are other people who really hate us internally. And to finish up sort of what happened over the weekend in Dan Lamoth in the war, it was a very good defense reporter in the Washington Post reported it Saturday night that a lot of troops are on route and sort of suggested a lot of people that got expect there to be

ground operations, combat operations on Iranians. So I'll maybe not out of massive invasion, but more than it's just occasional special forces on the other hand, and then it could be carguer Island, it could be the nuclear stuff, it could be the straight, some combination of all these, some other things, and then there's a journal report last night about the nuclear site.

So there's plenty of reporting like reans received a lot of reenleadership and reenleadership and reenleadership.

“I think, yeah, like you should be ready to, which is just maybe they're going to call”

up reen reserves. I don't know. I think I think I'm right that we're a service. So yeah. So there's a lot of evidence as well as Trump, you know, vibes that cut in the way of at least

wanting to show the ground troops in the area, maybe it's all a giant plough. It's so forth, they're manned to, so grandally, some people, and no, quite a lot about this, you know, sort of ex-general, ex-national security types. They're pretty convinced that when you do all the preparations, you, this one put to me, you should probably bet on the fact that some of these troops are going to get used.

Some of them are more Trumpy than UNIR, some of them are sort of, you know, ambivalent about the war, and could work out okay, they had a whole theory of it, which was very consistent with that Israeli leak the other day about your massive bombing efforts that might bring around to the table and be opened the strait and let us get out with sort of adequate outcome, you might say, well, it's just reopening the strait that was already closed, but,

you know, I was doing a lot of damage, they've illiterate capacities and stuff. They were all against any of the abuse of ground troops that had been in the media. They think the car guy, I don't think it's crazy. They think the strait is pretty crazy. We could get some ships through the strait if we were to really deploy a lot of naval assets

and some air assets over them, and maybe some special forces on selected parts of the bank of the strait, but I mean, even there, not clear, it's worth it. Anyway, that's a very targeted operation, but the idea of actually going to seize land, they are all against them. I mean, and these are people who say, we're not exactly some of whom were ambivalent

about the war, some of whom have been involved in the military against Iran for a long time and in other agencies, so I was very struck by that.

Now, maybe look, maybe they don't know, they don't always be cautious, they don't want

a second guess, Admiral Cooper or Chairman K and maybe the military has better plans than they realize. But these are people who know a lot more than I do, and I was just struck by, as I said, not the unanimity, they didn't quite have my position, which is basically just cut our losses at this point, but they did not think there was any good case for ground troops.

And again, done has been made. I mean, that's what's most striking. We are literally going to put hundreds, thousands of soldiers, soldiers and Marines on the ground in Iran, perhaps, and no one has explained, even a minute why we're doing it or justified it.

I kind of have a little bit of a justification from Rubio over the weekend, but I want to save that for a second, because it's in the most clear thing that we've heard, but I just want to run a couple of the other news items first. Another thing that we should have mentioned was that a plane sitting on the runway and Saudi was absolutely obliterated by Iranian missile.

This is a type plane, I'm sure you don't worry about this for me, that we don't have that many of.

I think we have 16 of them operational right now, and this is one of them, and I think

it costs $600 million or something like that.

Yeah, I read $700 million, but whatever, 1,200 million. And it was demolished, right? Totally demolished. Yeah, and the original, unfortunately, if I could just say, I think, the original indications from both sent comments early from the administration from the White House, where you know,

it's been damaged. I think one now has to worry a little bit about the enormous style. We being totally honest about every aspect of how it's going. I feel that way about the Gerald Ford, and I don't really know, but like they said about

“the Gerald Ford, the big ship that there was a laundry fire, and that's why it was out”

of commission. But yet, then when Trump was on stage one time recently, he was talking about how the ship was under fire from Iran, from a bunch of different directions, that makes me wonder anyway, the Gerald Ford, I think, I think the effort at least question whether they're telling us the truth about the kind of attacks that we're suffering.

So another report that happened after that is that we're now, I guess, searching for more underground facilities to protect our material, our planes, and other tanks, et cetera, does seem like the kind of thing that you probably should have thought of before the war, a lot of people have been paying very close attention to the Ukraine Russia war, so this was like a big takeaway, that because of the new drone warfare now, you have to, the manner

much you have to protect your own equipment is different, then it would have been 10, 20 years ago, apparently we didn't do that. And then moving on to the economic impact, oil prices are up again this this morning. Dirty or treasuries are up to about five percent, we've been close to great recession territory on in the bond markets, this is not necessarily exactly related, but farm bankruptcies

is reported out to this morning, doubled last year, certainly that's immediately exacerbated by the increase in fertilizer prices that we're seeing now. We had meatball run to Santa's governor of Florida, that this is a notable signal he posted this yesterday. Market scenery price again further inflation, mortgage rates up in recent weeks, and he shows

a link to a picture of like stocks going down and bond prices going up, you know, doesn't

“say Trump by name, not exactly a profile in courage, but pretty notable, I think, for”

to Santa's to be weighing in on the economic consequences of this. Yeah, I hadn't seen the dissatisfaction, that is interesting, so he runs in 2028 as the kind

of real America first to get it, advances, you know, stuck with Trump's wars at the theory,

I guess. Yeah, I don't know if he's quite savvy enough for that. I don't know if he demonstrated a lot of savvy, I think probably what he's buying is competence, can I run like, I think in his head, you see, you think on Florida did great under me, and this was a disaster under Trump, and maybe I can run under that rubric,

but the fact that somebody like that, like not a Tom Massey, not a libertarian, and that somebody who's retired, you know, not whatever, like a active Republican and good standing who ostensibly maybe cares about his political future, and obviously he's terminated as governor, but he could run for Senate, could run for president again, for him to even be kind of dipping the toe in the water of criticizing the administration's handling of the

economy is pretty not worthy.

“No, I think your interpretation is better than mine, and says that I'm overthinking it with”

the U.S., it's more like if you are a Trump administration member and participant in this war, which is fancy, Rubio, maybe that's not the very place to be, and maybe the combination of whatever military mischiefs there are, and not turning out well itself, and then the economic side of it, maybe just better to be, you know, the tough right winger who wasn't part of this administration, but it's very revealing that the scientists is taking this

moment. I guess doing another economy is a little safer for him, maybe than doing it on the mill, you know, on the foreign policy and go to the outside, but it is striking, some people who's talking to a probably pretty good economist, you know, this thing goes much longer. The economic consequences get very real and very hard to correct in the effort, you know,

one week, everyone understands, okay, hit cop, it's done some damage, but you know, you come back after a month, two months, now you're talking real, I think you are talking that recession and stuff like that. Productions are hard in politics, I was doing this thing, I was saying this one has asked about this last weekend, and I was like, look, we can mark this down, and come back to

it in Labor Day and you can clip it and be like Tim, you were overly catastrophizing, it's possible. I think that the economic consequences are spiraling out of control, and I think that people are way too, you know, cavalier about it right now, and the imagining that Trump is just

going to, can just stop the war and that everything basically goes back to normal and

at least some disruptions and that, you know, buy the fall or whatever, I could back to some pre-war kind of baseline, I just don't think so. If you just, you're kind of look around the world, I'm just this morning, like I'm, you know, poking around the internet for the podcast, and it's like, pathician and Italy is talking

And I feel like somewhere in the United Kingdom, they're already having, I kind of want

to be aisle of light or something like they're already having oil shortages, like Sam sent the, is story in India, where some, some agree in the butter chicken, they can't make butter chicken now, and they're, they're little things, but right, like if you shut down this major thoroughway, where there's aluminum, where there's fertilizer, where there, the ingredients going to fertilizer, where there is helium, in addition to oil, I call the products that

are made out of it, plastics, et cetera, it's been 30 days already, it's been 30 days, even if it goes on just another month, 60 days, that is a long time, you know, to kind of reintegrate the supply chains in the global economy, and the economy is already shaky before they start it, the economy was already, I should get, we hadn't created any jobs this year, according to Trump poll, like we had a net zero job creation in 2026 in our country.

“So I think it's a disaster, and I think that right now, you know, people are looking”

at it like, and gas prices are going to be up a little bit, that's not great, I think we're looking at 2022 style inflation and disaster coming forward, and I'm not an economist, so, you know, if you're listening to this, anything coming wrong, you can clip it and play it back to Mandela Labor Day, and we'll see how things look. Megan Kelly also agrees with me, which is concerning, that's an anti-signal. She's just posted, she just says that

is not the said to me right now, this is a five-alarm fire, and she posted a poll with Trump at 33% approval. One poll, but, you know, she seems less responsive to all that stuff than before, whether it's, you know, there's the dark version of the theory, the JVL version of the theory is he's not ever planning on leaving, so he doesn't care about this, or maybe there's more of like the optimistic version of the theory, which is he's thinking

about his legacy, and he wants, you know, and he cares about that more than his political standing, he doesn't give a fuck about the House of Senate Republicans, so whatever, you

“know, or maybe it's just, he has dementia or ADHD, and he's just, like, living minute”

to minute, and he doesn't have object permanence, and I can't think long term. There's some combination of all those things that he seems less responsive to the political implications

that he would have been in the first term.

And maybe sort of agrees with the economy, deep down, and sort of thinks that that's so ready bad, so I got at least when the war, and that, but that can be very dangerous, but then it really leads to escalation and risk taking on the military and geopolitical side, and sort of discounting all the economic stuff, so ready done. I just think 60 days is very different for 30 days. Seems like a lot of companies have 35 days of

research, some of Taiwan has 12 more days of what they need for the chips, supposedly, something like that, so 12 plus the 30, it's been cut off, but it seems like this, you hit a point, and it isn't sort of an incremental at some point, right? This just, you're out.

“Yeah, they just can't make any more chips, you know, and so that's got a bad, and who knows”

where and what supply chains is this all hitting, but it has a feeling of getting close to a tipping point. There's a big Atlantic article today about the, whatever you think about the AI system, it's been partially carrying the economy, you know, where there's not a lot of other growth industries right now, you know, private prisons, crypto, and data centers

as the Trump economy, and home health care workers, see, deported all the immigrants. So we're doing that, so those are the four places where you see job growth, and it's like, you know, it could be a major crisis, and that, and they are industry, right, just because, like, they need more and more of all those things, steel, helium, oil. One thing we start to learn about, as you get older in life, is the importance of consistency,

dependability, the bill crystal Monday podcast, consistent, dependable, you know, you're getting it from us, reflects the numbers, I can see it, you guys, no, you come, you know, you're going to be here on Monday, you know, it's going to be bill, you're unsure about my other guest choices, you shouldn't be, because I'm, it's like all bangers, bangers

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“it isn't important, I think, especially when I'm able to, like my level of catastrophizing”

is beyond what I've been in a while, at least about the state of the country, and how things are going to turn out, in Trump 2.0, I'm not an economist or a military expert, so it's important to listen to others, here with the cases, for the fact that this is going to be okay, I think that Rubio gave the clearest case for what they're doing over the weekend, let's listen to it.

Let me explain to you guys this in simple English, okay, Iran is run by lunatics, religious fanatic lunatics, they have an ambition to have nuclear weapons, they intend to develop those nuclear weapons behind a program of missiles and drones and terrorism that the world will not be able to touch them for fear of those things, and this is the weakest they've ever been, now is the time to go after them, the president made the decision to go after

them, take away their missiles, take away their navy, take away their drones, take away

their ability to make those things so that they can never have a nuclear weapon, that's

why the president made this decision, it was the right decision and the world will be a safer place when these radical clerics no longer have access to these weapons, you see how they're using them now, imagine how they would use them a year from now, they

“have more of these, so that I think is at least honest, which is unlike what they've”

been saying otherwise, which is that Iran was weak, which is why they went into this, not that Iran was an imminent threat, but that they saw them this so weak, that this was the opportunity to have this rate, the regime, have a graphic, girl, as an Israeli analyst, quote tweeted that video and said this, perfectly said, Marco, my kids just spent a month and shelters, so they won't have to spend years of their lives afraid or far worse, our

generation's task is to get this job done, it's a test of resolve, if you have the resolve, you change the course of history, so like that is the case, I think, for the people who are like, don't turn this around, that Iran is so weak that they really can finish the job in a few weeks, if you're Israeli, obviously that is a potentially existential opportunity or a very serious opportunity, you know, given the scale of the threats from

Iran and their proxies, which are us, maybe that is an opportunity because your old world leader and you know, for that future destabilization, Iran is so weak, I just, I don't think that there's a ton of evidence for this, you know, particularly the way the warfare is going, China and Russia and our other countries could rearm Iran, particularly with the, you know, drone capabilities and other capabilities, I don't know how long that's

going to take, so I think that like to actually achieve this, you really would need regime change, right, like the idea that the, I told a junior, it's kind of not continue to go after what, you know, weapons and that this is going to be something that is, you know, going to resonate for years and years to come, I find that a little hard to believe, but I do like, that's the case, if we're going to steal man, they're best case, that's, that

is it? Yeah, no, no, I agree with that, and but finishing the job means regime change, because otherwise, I don't have Eve, he's a, I have Eve Gore, he's a who wonderful guy, I mean, I'm afraid if you leave that regime in place, unless you are occupying the country, unless you have a kind of Venezuela style chokehold on it, which is not going to be the case for

a country of 90 million people in the Middle East with relations with China and Russia,

that regime will threaten to rebuild weapons, maybe you can go in and model grasses, they like to say, you know, every six or 12 months and stop it, but it really is a case for innovation,

“it's a case for a rock, I mean, that's what, what real sound it was like, and you know,”

wasn't a crazy case, it turned out to be not to go well, but though it's not a threat to anyone right now, whatever, even though the war was a mistake and didn't go well at the end of the day, it was a, it did change the regime, seven year commitment. Yeah, but I mean, that's not what Trump envisioned, it's not what they prepared for, and they all kind of stuff you would have had to have done militarily to make that plausible.

Now, the massive bombing to just so degrade the place that they can't come back for years, not just for months, that the regime is in shambles, even if it's controlling, it's sort of, maybe there's massive state failure. I think that's kind of what it shows now, hoping for kind of just chaos and this country of

not even million people is a horrible mess, you know, for a wrecking crisis and Iran would

be amazing for stability in the Middle East. No, it's just got its own horrible spillover effects, obviously, having settled that, the

certainly the argument for Iraq, whatever you think of Iraq, and God knows, you pay the

“terrible price, and human price, and we've rocky, but if human price, and Iraqi deaths,”

and then some economic price, but we didn't have the equivalent of the state of Hormuz closing and the possible global, you know, slowdown, I don't, you know, that was not really related to Iraq, what happened to 2007, 2008, I don't think so. Again, you got to also build that into your equation there of costs and benefits. So I mean, if they wanted to do what Rubio said, they needed to have had a plan ahead of

time to prevent the most obvious thing that any we was going to do, which is close to straight, right? They also are increasing the number of missiles and drones or shooting every single day, like, if you look at the chart, like, right, that this was the chart that the, that the Trump side was showing at the beginning to show how successful it's been, which was like,

they shot 100 missiles and just make it that's not that I haven't front of me, you know, day one, and then by day six, they were shooting 15, but now we're at day 30, and it's

“back up to like 30, right? You know, again, just using those as, as kind of ballpark figures,”

you've seen the increase now again. So like, there isn't a ton of evidence that the one

of the other military guys I follow was saying that, you know, like the one third of Iran's

capabilities were very easy to get rid of slowhang fruit and other third, we can maybe get rid of as possible, but like last third is very challenging, you know, because of how they built it out, because the mountains, because, you know, a variety of right reasons on top of that, you know, the drone capability of our race, the metric war, and we've seen this in Ukraine. And here we are, like, Ukraine is now doing deals with the UAE and Qatar, so they

can learn the Ukrainian technology and how to deal with this. So I'll listen to the review case and it's like, okay, that at least is a straightforward argument for what they're trying to do, but there's not based on obvious lies. I'm not sure it's going to work, but I don't think it's going to work, let me be clear. >> No, and it seems to be nuclear focused in turn ultimately, which probably does mean going into

getting a regime that's willing to get rid of what they have locked up there in those caves

and stuff. >> What are they going to get out of that deal?

“>> Well, also, just how are we going to do it? And how are we going to know we've done it?”

Again, the way we knew that we didn't sit on turn, I'm not to have the web as a master structural program, moving back ahead as we thought, but nonetheless, the reason we would know that we had gotten rid of Saddam's rocks, web as a master structure threat, and the rest threat to his neighbors, and they hadn't vaded neighbors consistently for the preceding four years, is that we both got rid of the regime, and we took off in a country,

and so there were no web as a master structure to speak of left there. We're not willing to do either in this case and are able to do either in this case. So, I don't quite know how we get to what Rubio thinks we're going to get to. >> Fabanda Dine, a line of soft meat, choppy fire, and business, and Knuck owns that's the code with the checkout with the world for best conversion. That's right, the checkout with the

world for best conversion. The legendary checkout from Choppy fire, for either the shop on their website, this is in social media, and over a lot of things. >> That's the music for your ears. Video is also based on vendors with Choppy fire, can sit to a real hip beardom. Start then testing today for one of your pro-monats. >> Choppy fire. .8, let's record it. >> Under the DHS, when we last look on Friday,

it seemed like there was a deal, because senators, Republican senators, we're sick of the shutdown. I don't know if they're just annoyed with waiting in long lines. Delta said they no longer got priority access, and so there are Republican senators, so I go, okay, that's enough for me. I felt enough pain. There was, you know, essentially a unanimous bipartisan effort in the Senate to say, hey, we're going to fund all of DHS, accept ice,

and some parts of CBP, and then we'll move forward and debate the rest. We went to the house, Mike Johnson said now. The House Republicans said now we're not going to do this. They funded an eight week extension of all DHS, including ice. Obviously, that is not going to land anywhere in the Senate. So we're still at an impasse. TSA just still not getting paid. Who knows what other parts of DHS are not being funded adequately, given the domestic security threats we have right now.

They're on vacation for a week and a half, as you mentioned two weeks. Again, this is another thing that I'm back to the Democrats on with it's just, I feel like the Democrats have won this fight now, because they got the Republicans in the Senate to agree to their proposal and now it's Mike Johnson and Donald Trump that are holding it up. And I don't know. I mean, I shouldn't maybe standing outside of airports with science, being like Republicans did this, flying back to

Washington themselves to have stunts outside the White House, outside the House, go to Mike Johnson's district, and be not funded to the TSA. I don't know. And there are many things you could do. I do think that on both the war and DHS, I could use a little more paddle to the metal. Yeah, agree. It's definitely, does Mike Johnson do that without consulting with Trump to jump, tell him, kill this deal. I mean, I haven't seen much reporting on this. I mean, I feel like it's being treated as a, I don't know,

But that, I mean, would you have that deal in the Senate and food and everyone signed off? I don't include all the Trump loyalists in the Senate. And then, for Johnson to do that, that feels like Trump pulling that string and Johnson being the puppet and people should blame Trump for it.

“I agree. Yeah. And this Trump, it's their fault now. Yeah. I think the Republicans at least had an”

argument when the Democrats were shutting down over ice. And they, you know, had the, you saw this

argument basically when Greg Kizar and Austin and John Kornin had a confrontation where Greg Kizar was

like you, you aren't paying these people and he's like, no, you guys aren't paying these people. And like you went back and forth and there was kind of like each side had a point. There's no point anymore. And the Republicans passed a funding bill in the Senate. And it's just now House Republicans and Trump, they're the ones that are holding it up. And so I don't know. Put on a clown costume. I don't know what you want to do. Whatever. 24 hours straight of streaming,

do anything. Give me something. I would just, I think that the degree to which the Democrats should feel like they're politically on offense because of the multi-front disaster that Donald Trump is overseeing should be taken away on a show. Totally agree. And I knew I'd look there 47 whatever Democratic senators and 200 and 12 was like that. That's where they're getting a camera, Democratic Americans in the House now. They can all do their own thing. It doesn't have to be

there. I mean, people Jeffries and Schubert, I mean, five they should do, they should do more

“too, honestly. But I'm not sure they're the best spokespeople either. But let them everyone do”

it in their own district or their efforts locally. And say, this place is closed. We said Donald Trump and Mike John, I mean, how can a House Democrats not do the thing? Well, half of them can't do it because they're out of co-deals, you know, in some nice European capital or something like that. You know, examining our diplomatic, you know, how we're doing into diplomacy and Paris or something. I don't know what they're doing or they're just enjoying the, I don't mean to be, you know, they

get to spend Passo for Easter with their families at all, but still, yeah, they need to really

hammer them up both the war and I assume. I'm becoming basically a Tea Party Democrat. Now,

I'm becoming one of the insane people I made fun of in the, in the focus groups five years ago. I wrote, there's this focus group that I remember. There really stuck with me. I've mentioned a couple of times, but it's like, I forget why Sarah had convened like a group of, it was Alabama, Georgia, and Florida, Magga Republicans. I forget why it was those three states, but anyway, I just have this very clear memory of one person, the focus group, saying, only members of Congress that

are doing anything are Matt Gates and Marjorie Taylor Greene. And everybody going around, be like, yeah, we need more people like that. And I, you know, I was sitting there watching up and going like these guys are stupid, and they don't know anything, and they don't realize Congress does serious work. So Congress doesn't actually do working more. And so those people are kind of right. The Democrats need more Marjorie Taylor Greene's in that case, the draw attention

and get people to understand what's going on. I like looked at a list of the California Democratic delegation for some other project I'm working on over the weekend, and it's like, I haven't even heard of half the people. What are you doing? What are you doing? We are in a crisis right now, across multiple vectors. We are in a Democratic crisis, but we also are in the

“stupid war. Department of Homeland Security is shut down. What excuse do you have to not”

be front and center yelling about this? You don't, you don't have one. And they should find Congress people who are capable of getting attention for this, the others aren't able. All right, there's my rant. I did want to mention the pardon, so I can just skip over it today, but I just want to leave this with people. There's a pro-public article that's truly insane about a Trump part into nursing home owner, Joseph Schwartz. Schwartz had a 39 million dollar

fraud scheme. The families who won the wrongful death suits against Schwartz haven't received a scent. This guy got a pardon, and there's like a whole list of Medicare fraudsters, other health care fraudsters, so this guy's part, and I think is pretty notable in the context of all the Somali bullshit in Minnesota. In addition to that, Trump was on Air Force One. We talked about what, how the Democrats aren't, maybe doing enough to focus on all the various outrageous.

Here's what the president of the United States was focusing on. Here's on the plane,

coming home from one of his clubs this weekend. He takes out a huge cardboard picture of the new ballroom, and he starts going through to the reporters. I don't know if they are all from news max or something, because none of them were objecting to this. They were all asking follow-up questions about it, but he was showing them the pictures of the new ballroom, same things like it's going to have an open porch on the top level. Underneath, there'll be a closed porch

under the columns. It's him carved. The columns are Corinthian columns. It's the top top of the line marble. He's going through all of the details of the construction that is happening.

Kennedy Center. What the protocol is going to look like, the Corinthian portico.

- One shots at the end. We have the, you know, the cheap shot. - The cheap shot. Yeah, I can do some kind of quick hits. The cheap shots. We have the cheap shots, and it was a very woody tweet by someone saying that Trump, this says it all right, Trump is personally reviewing the plans for the, well, I'm quite a lot of detail, apparently. I mean, who does, you know, insisting on his chinsey gold everywhere and on fake columns, which is sandal and the, my kind of columns

that he likes better, the Corinthian ones and all this. So that he's really engaged in the new, the actual war. He seems to be depending on, you know, what he sees on Fox or even less reputable outlets. You know, and then, and then they things he vaguely remembers was a brief, he got somewhere about this island might be worth getting or, you know, this shows the videos, the highlight real bomb, setting things. It's really bleak. I mean, I suppose the site defense won't

give you the Democrats, it gets back to you just answers point two is, you know, maybe he's

“taking himself pretty big hole and, honestly, given the Democrats issues to some of them with”

being very good at messaging, maybe they could just, they're fine telling themselves, you know what, we'll just stay out of the way. He's going down in the polls. This is a new one you mentioned,

apparently, I've been with 33 percent. I guess that would be the slightly generous,

more slightly generous account of why some of the Democrats don't need to be screaming in the other times. Except, I do think on the war in particular, but also DHS, they actually have a constitutional obligation to be serious about this and to try to, you know what, if they scream enough about the grand troops, they might stop Trump from doing the grand troops. Either, I don't think legally stop him, but they might, you know, to turn him from going down that path,

you think, so you might God, this really could be more of a disaster. And that would be a service to the country. I'm really, really would be a service to the country, so I don't think it excuses them, but I can see that they're just, they're just, they might be telling themselves quietly when they're rationalizing, taking the week off on some, some nice place that, you know, Trump's still a

plenty of damage to himself. We don't have to do too much. Sure. Okay, that's fine. I know the

part of this is about fulfilling my emotional needs. Well, it's not this real, too, you know. This is hierarchy of needs, but you would think that there would be an adjacent crow shout out, it goes on Fox from time to time. Our Kelly has been doing this a little bit, but I don't know, well, I put it in this perspective. This stupid pierce Morgan show on the internet, people are like, why do you go on, Tim? And I sometimes, and I say no to them a lot. And I usually go on whenever

Trump has done something so outrageous that I feel compelled to yell, but also I know that my counterparty, I can't even offer up a bullshit defense, right? Like that, you know, I wait until the moment where I'm on the strongest flag to eviscerate any Magapologist. Okay. This is that moment for going on Fox, if you're a Democratic politician. I mean, the country is in shambles. The economic situation as it is asked her, the war is going way worse than they said.

It was going to go, people can't even fly anywhere because the House Republicans and Trump are shutting down the airports and not paying TSA agents and sending ice agents to the airports, apparently. Like this is the moment to go on Fox and say to people, like people, you signed up for this for no new wars and for lower costs. And we're in the stupidest war I could possibly think of, and everything is cost to more, and it's about to get worse. If you don't want to do a stunt,

“Fox will have you? There are people on Fox that will have you, but you have to be at least”

four Democrats who are capable of going on Fox. That's my request for any staff or citizen to us. Maybe they are going on their local news. Be fair. Maybe they are doing their stand-ups outside the airport and their community and flaming the incumbent. I mean, the text that Houston seems to be one of the worst, the big issues to their point of view, but George Shobby, George Shobby Bush, and I assume Talariko is making hay with that. That's happening. Michigan doing that.

That's good. Doing it's stuff in community is there, but it's also the year 2026. And a lot of people are getting their information right here and not on, not on their local news. All right. Lessons for children and grandchildren. Was it your daughter at the one to Duke? Was it your son-in-law? Oh, the daughter, Rebecca Les de Duke, and better now husband there, so they're both two grads. They waited to like in the

same thing where they sleep out there to, you know, and the long time I get tickets for the games that can't remember. This is the old seat site. That's people or something. And they're fresh

“from here. I think it was Duke was a national champion 2001. You were probably in college, right?”

Yeah, Duke, one of the over Maryland. That's great. A great year. Carlos Bouser was a classmate. I believe her for Rebecca and Elliot. Yeah. So there you go. And his two kids are on that team. And now it's two kids. There's Cameron Bouser. There are three kids who are young obviously. They are Duke fans, Duke fans, and they, and the, the games Friday and died in Sunday, we're here in DC, and they were able to get tickets. I, the little was worried about them.

They seem to be recovered for Becca's texting this morning about normal things. So I think the families pulled themselves together after last night. As a rough game. If you were a Duke fan,

but that's a rough game to go to and see that ending. Right. If you're like an eight-year-old,

“who is or nine-year-old who's really getting into sports right now, and this is your team,”

and you get to go see them live, and Duke is winning by 20, and they're winning the whole game, and they're about to go to the final four, and your parents are getting you cotton candy, and you have the finger, and, you know, you have all your Duke's stuff on, and then they suffer. I can't unimaginable collapse. I was kind of annoyed that Sam Stein. You can, Man, was going to be happy, and so, you know, cut both ways for me a little bit, but I let out a yacht,

like a gutter or a yacht when they threw it the ball away, and then he makes the shot from 40 feet away to win the game, and thinking about those grandkids. I mean, that's, like, for a nine-year-old,

that is, like, a 2016 election level loss for them. I mean, that is a gutter astrophot.

You, I would imagine that there would be catatonic. The older two were just turned 13, and their boys, and their sister fell, he's a little less into it, so, and I think for a 13-year-old,

“I think for a 13-year-old. Is it better or worse for a 13-year-old? You think it's a healthy life lesson for a 13-year-old?”

I think it's a very healthy life lesson for a 13-year-old. I think it's a very healthy life lesson. This morning, you were trying to cheer me up about this. You think it's a healthy life lesson. I think it's a point. It's like, Rebecca, Rebecca's a fan of this podcast. She will watch this guy hair back up. Life is about disappointment, okay? And unfortunately, you know, I did not have to experience, like, just a devastating level disappointment

until adulthood. When everyone that I admired and looked up to, all of my heroes, not only allowed for Donald Trump to take over the party, but signed up for it, affirmatively, and then he won the election. It was sent into despondency, months and months of despondency, and I feel like had I suffered a loss like this at 13. I had my sports heroes at 13 disappointed me. It's such an extreme level. Maybe I would have been slightly more prepared,

maybe like that my skin would have toughened in 10 years, and I would have prepared myself a little bit more for adulthood. And then on top of that, the joy of being surprised, a victory now. Think about how great the joy of victory will be. Your children are Duke fans, okay?

Your children are Duke fans. They, you know, they never had to work for anything. It's like being

born at the silver spoon in your mouth of fandom. They were born as Duke fans. And now, you know, they get to, when Duke eventually wins again, which we know that they will, you'll be able to run through the Valley of Suffering before experiencing victory. And that's,

“that's what life's about. So I hope that they cried. I think that it was important for them to cry”

and and wake up this morning and and feel down and and not want to show their face in front of their classmates. It's cool. I'm, it's all an important part of life's journey for your grandchildren. Bill. So that's where I'm at. Oh, that's for this. That'll be helpful. I'm not sure how much of that I'll say at this later. When say night when I'm chatting, the valley is there. Make sure you're building this baby out. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's good. It's kind of like walking to the desert. Yeah.

I take, I take your point though. I take your point. I've, I've been a big, just a rationalizer of many. It's just a point, it's over the years. And those grounds. The Egyptians said to walk through the desert, your character. And your grandchildren had to walk through China town after so afraid that defeat last night. So it's kind of somewhere. All right. That's Bill Crystal. We don't know who we have in the show tomorrow, but it'll be good. I promise we're working on it. We are working on it. It'll be somebody good.

And you know next Monday, Bill Crystal will be back. I appreciate it. But actually, before I wish you did you have any Al Gore thoughts, did you listen to Al Gore? I saw clips. I have listened to the whole thing. It's looking here. Well, you're, you're the one who would have said to him. It was just said that you called him out or not. I couldn't quite follow him. He did let me call him out. I kind of set him up for a gauge out, right off the top. You know, because I asked if I could call him out and

and song in the Paul Simon song, you know, the chorus goes, I can call you Betty. And Betty, when you call me, you can call me out. And so, you know, I set him up. You can call me out if I can call you Betty, but he didn't take that opportunity. We were just kind of building a rapport. So maybe it was the early late off from that opportunity. And he took the rest of my jokes. Well, I thought he was in good spirits. He was funny, deadpan humor. Yeah, obviously he's following the news a lot.

Very sharp 77 really sharp sounded much sharper than our president. He's like dropping references to Montesquieu. And, you know, he's doing the Bill Crystal thing. He's all over the place on dropping historical and philosophical references. I don't know. I mean, I was 18. It's one of nine now, 17. My early when he beat Bush. But I was beat him rather. So I can be forgiven

start to start to think about a different world. You know, where Al Gore was, he was saddled with

“the great recession. John McCain gets elected. Anyway, different world, possibly. It was wonderful.”

I wish you go. Let's do it if they haven't. I was pleasantly surprised at the strange world

to for me. And I'll go to be there. Bill, thank you very much. I'm going to leave people

“with a note. King's theme song. Friend of mine listen to. So go check that out. We'll put a link to”

a song in the shoutouts. If you're going to go, let's do it on Spotify. Given the 0.001 pennies that

you get for every stream on Spotify, I appreciate everybody. And we'll see you back here tomorrow. Bye, Bill. Bye, Jim. [Music]

“The board podcast is brought to you. Thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer”

Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Lutz and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.