Bill Kristol: Trump's Revenge Tour Is Backfiring

I just wanted to hit you with a news update.

“We started this morning with a rundown of everything that happened”

over the weekend. But since taping, we have an increase in, I guess, we got a kinetic action and our decreased fire. Some missiles been fired by Iran at Dubai and the UAE. And there were shots fired going both directions at boats

in the straight of Hormuz. Donald Trump posted this on his social media platform. Iran has taken some shots with respect to ship movement, including at a South Korean cargo ship, perhaps at the time for South Korea to come and join the mission.

Well, I should just say as a quick side here that South Korea, everything was going fine for South Korea before you attacked Iran. So I don't know why this would make South Korea want to join the mission now. In response, Trump writes that we've shot down seven small boats. We're so like to call them fast boats. So as a result, we are seeing prices increase

in the oil market and obviously tensions rising with some of our allies. So we get into most of this on the podcast today and Bill, frankly, alludes to the fact that Iran might start these types of attacks again. And we got it a couple hours later. So that's the latest. We'll have much more obviously in tomorrow's show in the rest

of the week. Stick around for Bill Crystal Monday. Hello and welcome aboard podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller. It is Monday. It is May. And so we're here with Editor at Large Bill Crystal. I do have to say, 2026 feels like it's been a little faster than 2025.

2025 was a long slog. It's the first year of Trump.

And my daughter last night before bedtime, she said to me, she was like, "It makes me sad. The years almost over. My school year is almost over. It went by so fast and it's my favorite grade that I'm in." And so, you know, that tugged at my heartstrings a little bit, but then I was like, "You know what, you're right. Maybe we can survive the next two and a

half years. You know, we'll all be older and whatnot because time comes for everybody." But I don't know. No. Is it not moving faster for you, but... No, it is. I'm trying to remember it's hard for me to, of course, it's hard to put myself back in one's mindset.

“You have to go a little bit. It seemed like the whole thing might work for Trump, right?”

Right. I mean, I don't mean it. It's still, it's very dangerous to be arriving. Doge plus, you know, everything and sort of... Everybody's folding the law firms and the universe. Yeah, yeah. It's just the kind of degree of the authoritarian takeover in the lack of effective resistance early on.

The big thing in those first few months I've ever speaking to donors and said,

"Why has numbers never go down? His poll numbers are immovable."

He's, you know, he's got a mystical, magical hole over the American public. Does it feel that way now? Nope. We're going to get to the poll numbers in the politics. We're going to start a little bit with some of the news from the weekend. So, the Iranians offered a proposal to the president as part of our

decry... I liked the commenter that recommended decrease fire. In the crist off, we're trying to decide how to describe what is happening right now. And he said, "Slow fire," which is good,

“to decrease spot fire, has a better way to do it. So that's what we're going to go with.”

There proposal, it would be a one month deadline to end the decrease fire and permanently end the war. The deal would leave its nuclear capabilities on resolve. They have 14 point plan. It would require both sides to lift their blockades on the straight. And the war in Lebanon, release or hunt frozen assets. They also wants to pay them some cash and lift sanctions. The Trump reply to that over his social media account, because that's how things

are in our banana republic and out of the president replies to foreign countries in his own social media platform. Can't imagine it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to humanity in the world over the last 47 years. And the meantime, they've announced Project Freedom, subtly named Project Freedom, who are we freeing in Project Freedom? You might wonder. Is it the Iranian people? Are we protecting our own freedom?

No, Project Freedom is to free some ships from the straight of armies. We're going to put 15,000 troops at 100 aircraft in harm's way to potentially free stranded ships. And the waterway, Iran, says that they hit a US ship in reaction to that this morning. The US denies that that happened. So there you go. I doesn't seem like a lot of progress has been made. Bill, where would you think of the state of place? Yeah. And that would all seem like such, you know,

like talk and some faulty military action, which is better, probably than real military action. And it's still kind of think it's all justling and whatever to get Trump to some to withdraw all he wants. I guess I don't know, but on the other hand, I don't know. I've talked to someone last night, it was allegedly follows and things. I think Trump's really going to hit

I mean, it's sort of like, you know, a typical Biden, a little bit of its bellicose,

but there's a lot of, isn't it some talk about we're really getting along well with the Iranians these days. And I kind of think Bill is getting up with here. And I mean, yeah. I mean, he likes to keep optionality for himself. The longer it goes on, though, even supporters of going to be like, prices are going up, the straightest still closed. What are we doing? It is hard to even spin like what end he's trying to achieve. The spin that he is giving people as his out is that the

blockade was going to cripple and tank the Iranian economy. And so that it would make them cry uncle. That's a pretty hard sell right now. And it doesn't even seem like they are pushing that sell anymore now with project freedom. Yeah. That is the one sell they have, I guess.

“And I and cry uncle for what? I suppose for reopening the straight, but I mean, I think that could be”

done, but then, you know, they won't close it again. They made their point on the straight and

that can't be unseen, you know. And then the other thing is the new clear thing. I'd say that people I've talked to and I haven't talked to that many, but I was so glad that this weekend where there was sort of not really Trumpists, but people who wanted to be like, "Oh, it's a secret, neoconovat." No, it wasn't the other part of it. It was just a social thing here sort of, such as the Ebola, only. It wasn't the thing. So there are some military contractors there.

We need to get those things going again, the secret, neoconovats. But anyway, this is more your basic social event in order to be ready. And there were some people there who wanted to hope that there was a week ago planned here. And I suppose he's tightening the screws and it's going to get the new clear material out and make us safer, because the really nuclear program will really won't be able to be started again. It could be started again, I think. The nuclear program isn't

pretty bad shape, the missile program isn't pretty bad. Or in any way, we've pummeled them for

“about the bomb again. I don't know how much poor shape we're going to get it into. So I think that's”

kind of wishful thinking on people who don't want to tell themselves what I think is, I think you're absolutely right, what is increasingly the real truth, which is, what are we doing now? I mean, whatever it's regional rationale, and whatever damage was done to Iran, which maybe is a good thing in terms of limiting their military capabilities, stuff like that, you know, in the first week or two or three, what are we doing now? And and conversely, and this is the

point, I'm struck by every defender, semi-defendor, the war I talked to. The whole thing is

defended. And there's never a mention of the strait before moves. I mean, it's as if we're not

paying a real price for this. And every day, it's closed. It's better for a run-in for us. Yes, they have some, you know, they lose a little bit of income from not being able to export or all that it builds up there. And there's all this talk on how it's eventually going to become unmanageable for them. I'm pretty stupid about that. But the actual world economy is heading towards what most people who study these things seem to be saying is kind of real dangers ahead. And already,

gas is whatever it is, right? And other prices, fertilizers, whatever it is. And that stuff each day, it adds up, you know, I feel like energy experts are talking to the gas buddy today on YouTube. You know, check that out later. But I think we're really potentially going to a tipping point. I think at some point whether that's the end of this month or after, where you kind of exponential increases in prices and prices because of shortages and, you know, Adam Smith's applying

“demand. I think the only thing that runs counter to, I think both of our view, which is like Trump”

once in off ramp, and he's looking for some safe face saving off ramp, is there's a story over the weekend about how much he's talking to Mark Tason. Mark Tason, who is this Washington Post columnist and you know, Celeste Fox, Pundit, who has been the biggest cheerleader for the Iran War. And he simultaneously, the article about him was weird. Tason was kind of taking credit for Trump siding with Ukraine more than he would have otherwise. I'm sorry, I don't know, you've done that

great of a job. If that's your, uh, the mark of your influence, but anyway, you know, and Tason apparently is talking to Trump a lot and just posted that, you know, he, that he believes Trump's going to go finish the job. So, you know, if that is true, that that is who Trump is listening to, and there is no real like rationale for the status quo, you know, then you need to create a new story. I mean, that's what Trump does, right? It's, it's tabloid guys going to have a new episode,

and you see, he's in with the apprentice, and so I, I mean, that's argument for them continuing to escalate it, but eventually there's to be something because the status quo is, it's a nightmare, right? And it makes them look very limp, and maybe it doesn't care. You mean, I care about the photos as much as he once did since he, you know, for various reasons, but I, so the other Republicans care, I don't know, someone, and there's no good argument,

the gas prices thing. I just watch the centers of the weekend, John Cornand is up for this election in Texas, posts on Twitter, $369 a gallon in Austin this morning, exclamation points. I don't think this is worth going to work for people. Like it's not as bad as they're saying, only $369. You know, you had Tim Scott, it was out there saying that the gas prices are going down,

make, but you know, for our long-term safety and because of the importance of changing the

“regime in Iran, we're not trying to change the regime in Iran anymore. You know, he's not giving”

them anything to work with. Yeah, I agree. It also touched you thinking politically. These things sink in at some point that it's failing, and then it just, it's harder to turn that around, you know, out of dramatic. And maybe that's the reason for it to do something dramatic. But man, that is risky. We really, he's going to, the bombing wouldn't be that risky, I suppose, a kind of 48 hour. We're really going to show them, make them pay a price for 47 years, maybe they'd be

okay, support for that here. Anything with ground troops at this point, having, well, away, we have to two weeks if you said, okay, the next step is ground troops. This is our,

it's all of a plan. Now it's so obvious and flailing for a month, and then we're going to put

in ground troops. I just feel like that's kind of undoable. But, you know, I guess he could do it. He could order it, and heck, stuff would make sure it happened. I guess the military would go along, but man, that is, and that would be, and it's also what, what Iran does at that point. I mean, they have not hit energy sites right in the region and, and done much damage in the last month.

“There has been a ceasefire, really, in that respect. But they make clear, they could, right?”

Why wouldn't they do that again if Trump starts off even with a big bombing? I just feel that's one thing that's holding Trump back. He even he knows that that really capsizes the economy. Especially with the economic, you know, global economies even shake year now because of the months of shutdown and supply chains. So we'll see, Trump and his social media posted a meme over the weekend that we have all the cards. And it was a picture of him holding a bunch of uno cards.

It's like the wild card or something. You know, the problem with that is for anyone that's actually play to know what the child recently, which I have. You're trying to get rid of all your cards, and you know, so having a lot of cards is bad. And one of the Iranian guys posted a picture of him. They're only holding like three uno cards. And so I was like, he can't even win the meme battle against Iran. It's an American card game. Uno that the Iranians understand better than us.

Not good. Not pretty. Right now for Trump. All right. You got the big wireless carriers out there trying to keep everybody's money. I don't know about you. But you look at that wireless bill every month. I'm like, really? This is how much I'm paying. I am on my phone a lot, but you know, it's out of minute by minute service. As you're looking around, and I want to point you to our friends at Mitt Mobile with Mitt Mobile, you could save a ton of money compared to the big wireless carrier

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things with Trump, which is like if you came with a proposal, it was like, hey, you know, we're spending too much on our military installations in Europe, and you know, we've done a review and we've looked at this. It's like, you know, we could, we could do with fewer troops in Germany or this place with that place, you know, I would be open to that type of proposal. This is a temper tantrum. He's mad that the Europeans weren't helping us enough in Iran, but it also seems to be a pretty

ominous signal for NATO. So, both are curling and here I got them in road about this press over the weekend, we're only going to give any thoughts on that. No, you're absolutely right. I have just no law of nature that they have free 35,000 US troops in Germany instead of 30,000 and I've probably, you know, there could be ways to get it down to 30. But the idea that this is punishing Germany is insane. I mean, Germany's happy to have those troops, I was not clear that net net

they gained that much economically from it. But we gained a lot, you know, this war in Iran, what hospital do people go to after they after the attacks on the US basis in Kuwait or when soldiers get injured in the region? And they have been, it's not only many more. Unfortunately,

Ramstein in Germany. Well, where do people refill, where do troops go? I mean, it's, it's part of our former presence. Now, if Trump wants to go full America first and get rid of our forward presence in Germany and in Korea and Japan, that's in a way a coherent strategy but taking 5,000 troops out of

Germany is in Kuwait. And I do think the most important thing about it for political years,

“it just makes a look childish. I think that narrative is now, which is true, of course,”

has kind of hit some kind of critical mass. It's just people do have the sense of what that, what's he doing? I mean, it's just like he doesn't, he gets annoyed at them and so he pulls some troops out of there and everything is kind of just little hissy fits, hissy fits is not making America great again. And actually, kind of watching just the Shambalak actions in Iran, has brought some clarity to kind of why we need bases in other places, right? That's like if we

don't have access to, let's say that that's the logical end of this, right? Like we're taking out some troops, but then we end up just taking out all troops out of Germany. And it's like, okay, well, it's a lot longer flight from wherever agreement or the U.S. over to the Middle East, than it is from Germany. And if there was actually a situation where we had real acute security threats for our troops in the region, allies, anyone else, it matters in that way. And Trump is not

“interested or capable of articulating that for sure, but I think understanding it is probably”

the reality. But I do think they need you that shortly after some long-foam conversation with Putin, it does signal. I mean, it's not a start. Those troops were not going to be rushed to the front to fight Russia, presumably. If Russia did something in the ball, it's ball to whatever they're mostly support troops and, you know, refueling and medical and stuff like that. But symbolically, it just is again, you know, he has a call with Putin and let's take some more troops out.

And of course, what with all of his other assaults on NATO, it just brings home the fact that we are not a reliable custodian of NATO or of the free world. Yeah. David Ignatius of the weekend, I saw this, it just kind of caught my eye, said that he feels like because of the strength of Ukraine and the way that not a resilience Ukraine has showed you wrote about this a little bit morning shots, it's wanting to, you know, that Putin, it's not maybe overstated today's in a corner, but like that,

you know, he has fewer strategic moves than maybe he might have or might have looked like he had

when Trump first came back into power. And that one thing that he might do is strike one of the Baltic

states, right, to just sort of test NATO even further. And he might do that while Trump is in power, just to show, you know, kind of that really that NATO is officially dead, just, you know, is presenting the Trump would not come to the defense of the stone year or whatever. Who knows? I mean, David Ignatius doesn't have any inside sources or crystal ball, but I did, I thought it was an interesting observation particularly in context of of the move in Germany.

Yeah, Ignatius does have actually good sources over the years, and especially in the intelligence communities, so I wonder if they're seeing something that makes them a little worried. I mean,

“Putin, why is he attacked Ukraine? I mean, repeatedly, was it's not a NATO, right?”

I mean, one of the things we learned from the last 10 years is NATO is a deterrent. Putin does not want to war with NATO, but he does think, you know, that could trigger the U.S. and then we're at a whole different military situation, and also the European nation, the big European nations. So I think he walks to destroy NATO, and he's probably thinking, look, is there some way to kind of confirm that the U.S. guarantee isn't real?

And they can always manufacture excuses, especially in some of those, in the Baltic nations.

So I don't know. I don't know that he's going to do it. He's been somewhat cautious, he's very cautious in taking on NATO, on the other hand. Yeah, that's his alleged grievance and NATO expanded, right? So we'll make a certain amount of sense for his point of view. If we didn't do anything, it would be the end of the NATO, because all of them might also leave Poland and Germany, and if what we are, we've been faster than they are, so I don't know which way

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“Todd Blanche, our interim acting attorney general, was on the Sunday shows this weekend. Why?”

It's okay. Well, far I could play the club. I actually don't know the answer to that. Why? Why are they still doing Sunday shows? If they don't have to, who can I understand it on the job boning on the economy, part of it? You know the job boning on Iran, you want to send people out there to be like deals around the corner. I understand why Trump called into squawk box before the market. But I don't really understand why they do it. I guess it's good that they feel like

they still need to do this to exert some legitimacy or maybe I don't know. Do you have any theories? Mayor Garland didn't do the Sunday shows? Why is Todd Blanche doing the press?

I just assume he wants to be the real attorney general, not just acting attorney general,

and he wants to show Trump that he will defend. He will defend this ludicrous prosecution of comi. I guess. So it's a humiliation routine for Trump. Trump is making them go through the places to demonstrate that well. See that feels right. That's a good answer. All right. Well, did you agree with the humiliation? If you were not, if you're like me, you're a jazz fest on Sunday or you're just a church or you're enjoying your Sunday and decided not to tune in,

haven't seen me clips. It's quite a doozy. Let's listen to Todd Blanche explained the Jim Comi indictment to Kristen Walker. They don't Amazon.com. We looked this up. There are dozens of products with the same terminology. We're showing it right here. 86. 47 being sold and purchased right now should individuals selling or buying 86. 47 merchandise be concerned that they're going to be prosecuted by the deal. This isn't about a single incident. Okay. This isn't. I mean,

of course not. That's posted constantly. That phrase is used constantly. There are constantly men and women who choose to make threatening statements against President Trump. Every one of those statements do not resolve in indictments, of course. You are suggesting the C-shelves themselves are not a thing. No, I am suggesting that every single case depends on the

“investigation that's done. And of course, the C-shelves are part of that case. I mean, that's what the”

public sees. Okay. So some good news there. I feel pretty good. It sounds like that I can say 86. 47 right here on the podcast and not have fear that I'll be indicted by the DOJ, because it was specifically an indictment about Jim Komi saying 86.47 via C-shel arc. Yeah, those C-shelves are threatening in a way that just saying it isn't to having a baseball cap, isn't T-shirt. Yeah, there's some message in this show. That Trump said, oh,

I have one rose in the movies. You know, the mobsters always say 86. So when they want to

rub someone out of that, it was reducing. No one's actually found that in a movie, but everyone's found people sitting 86 that when they want to get rid of something at a restaurant or or something. Some way to fix your sideburn. Yeah. He's a couple more time for this one, right? I mean, we laugh about it. And of course, it is, I don't know. Maybe they can get a friendly jury. They got an indictment for a grand jury. Maybe they'll find a get a friendship. They're

putting Komi through a lot of expenses and so forth. And they don't get, you know, unless it's considered, I guess, malicious or something, prosecution. You don't get your expenses back when the government prosecutes you for a while, then you win, you know? So maybe it intimidates people a little, but this is just, yeah, it's just so brings home. Again, I can't believe people like this. At the end of the day, whatever the, maybe they think the pride and justice department

should have not gone after Trump. And Jack Smith was doing to over, you know, was overreaching and blah, blah, but they really think this is the tire justice department. I was just, you know, revenge opportunity for Donald Trump. I don't know. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, obviously there's nothing else. I only all know what Jim Komi's doing. He's writing fiction books. He's walking to the woods, taking pictures, reading vinyl meaver, hanging out with his grandkids like we know

he's doing. I mean, there's not a plot. So, but they keep like implying that there's other things there.

“Right? Like that's what Christian Wilker came to and said, sir, you sang it isn't the sea shells.”

That's not central to the case. He's like, no, it's the shells. I guess maybe they've a, you know, they've a jagged edge. Plus, other evidence, you know, maybe they have an email which Jim Komi says to Mrs. Komi, you're just in one house, you know, be good if he just, if they, if he can get him out of all of the somehow or if he laughs, you know, van, so he wore responsible. I mean, I know, see, that's a kind of incitement. I mean, I don't think Jim Komi was in touch with

professional hitmen though. Trying to get them to bump off Trump. Very clearly not. Yeah. It's embarrassing, like the degree to which it's just, you know, going back to the banana republic, that's like, I keep leaning back more as towards the machable is the right way to do this. Because, you know, I just kind of look at your saying to be in a pod, putting myself in my brain from not even after a deal. Like after Castro telegot nominated to DHA, right? Like

powers of the government, the investigative powers of the government to go after people and they

could do a lot of damage, pre indictment, right? Like the government can ruin your life before they have to go to a grand jury as a matter of fact. And, you know, that they would, you know, use the various powers of the government to really make the lives miserable of some of their folks. And they've tried that. And it's just time and again, it's been in the most hand-handed way imaginable. And so, like, there have been other things with the O.J. and F.B., I've

done there've been really, you know, terrible and condemnable and a lot of regular people are suffering people nice to tension, right? You go through all that. But like the revenge part of this is really keystone cops is the nicest thing you could say about it. Yeah, the only caution that you should have hinted at this is that I have to our friends who were really just into the mach pure mockery is, you know, and also Renee Good and Alex Freddie McKill and the SPLC is being prosecuted

for nothing, you know, for having used in former self-fight the KKK and so, in a perfectly legal way. So, of course, one can tell a corporate with the FBI and then they're being put through the ringer. And so, it's a weird mix, I agree. But the revenge tour part of it is making him weaker. Yeah. You know, talking with David Berry yesterday at the podcast on Hungary and he's written terrific stuff for us. And it was really good just about the people who should get checked out.

If you're interested in more on Hungary, David Berry. Thank you. He's great. Yeah. Maybe it was off for the camera that we discussed this. But, you know, Orban was a pretty tough authoritarian and very good at making life miserable for businessmen who didn't work with him, who didn't pay off his people, he'd independent media out of business. But he doesn't seem to have done this kind of petty revenge

“idiocy. You know what I mean? He did a lot of stuff. He mockable. If you want to think of it,”

that would ultimately ran out for him after 16 years, too. But there's something about Trump's

version of it is, let's hope it back. Well, it is backfiring isn't it? I guess, some of all this is going down to the polls, something's causing that, you know. Let's turn to the polls. I just want to think on the business, because you mentioned, I wanted to get this with us off. And I just, I just didn't have enough time. But because I just think it's kind of lost and all of the news. But it's pretty crazy what Trump is doing after the terror of ruling.

Yeah, as far as pressuring businesses, like what the Supreme Court ruled, the government illegally took money from businesses or ultimately consumers paid that, because business passed on to the consumer. But essentially, the government issued an illegal tax under business, took the money, and then the court ruled that they had to pay the money back. And what the president is doing is pressuring and threatening the businesses and saying, hey,

I'm keeping eye on who actually applies to get the money back. And if you just be a good

“patriot and let us keep the money, that's going to be something we remember. And that is just”

totally insane. The amount of freak out that the Wall Street Journal and Fox would have, if a Democratic president was threatening businesses saying, hey, we took more in taxes than we should have, like we garnish the money from your company and we took it and we put it into public services. And legally, you take us to court to get it back. But if you do, we're going to punish you in other ways. We're going to threaten you. So it might be better for you to leave the cash

with us. What is that? It's not socialism, authoritarian, socialism. Yeah, it is authoritarianism. I mean, you know what's happened? I think students of authoritarianism

and elsewhere have always said this, that you know, if you let people's most people,

it's the huge majority of people's informal lives, Chuck ahead. In a fairly rule of law context. So, you know, you don't get a parking ticket because you're at the Trump, you don't get your own, your own income taxes are probably treated, you know, anonymously and sort of fairly set or et cetera. Then if Trump plays the games with Mark Zuckerberg and with big businesses and with Don Jr. and all voters are, they don't like it. Maybe they think it's not really

great. We don't want to contribute. But it doesn't. Their own lives do not feel lawless and unword

“and subject to the whims of every of the state. Now, that is obviously, that's what kind of local”

corruption often is like and that's what the South was like for blacks, obviously, for hackable long forever, really until very pretty recently. And that's what really causes people to say, well, this is bad. This is really terrible, right? And that was, if you think of East Europe as, you know, the stuff that one read about there, it was that everyone had to be paid off, that you couldn't get anything without a deal with some local petty bureaucrat.

I don't think we're at that stage yet in the US, because we have state local governments because Trump has a bit of able to kind of get down to that level and maybe he doesn't personally want it. But I feel like that's where I think gas prices even spirit airlines and we're just the stuff that's starting to affect actual consumers, the tariff stuff to something. It's like, you know, why is he doing this to us kind of thing, you know? That takes us back to

over the 30s. But I thought this was interesting. The only highlight in the morning shots this morning,

23% approved on cost of living, 27% approved on inflation, 33% on conflict in Iran, 34% on the economy, 40 on immigration. So, it starts to affect everything, right? And this is one of the things which was like, let's say, and there is some element to this. You know, we've seen poll misses recently and I do think that there is some psychology to, if you're annoyed, you're not answering the polls as much, and you don't want to do it. So, let's just say that there are some

silent mega in here and it's off by 6%. You know, like, even still, like then is number at the economy is still 40, right? And on cost of living is still under 30. Like, even if it's off significantly,

“to me, I think that is really telling, especially when you consider like, it seems like things are”

going to get worse before they get better economically and they don't have a plan or an idea or even some spin on how they're going to fix it. I think the inflation thing is interesting because I've been a little bit, I think I've changed our mind a little. I have been sort of thinking people a little overdoing it here. They remember by this inflation, their high-presensitive to it. It's got up some under Trump and that's not good and some tickled goods, obviously, gas now. But people, I mean,

I don't know. There's Trump's deserves to be that. I want inflation really is a really hurty people. But I now wonder whether I've been, the people are actually pretty smart about this in a way. What they're seeing is quite a lot of inflation and you feel like at some of the goods that people buy most regularly, that is true, not just gasoline, but, you know, the things they buy and goes to your stories and stuff, you know? And I then I was talking a couple of economists about this

last week and that can be a bit of a leading indicator. I mean, the Fed has these complicated reasons why they don't calculate certain things so they prefer to look at more stable things of all this. But you can make a case that in a way the public is a little ahead of the economists now and seeing that the inflation is going back up and it's not going to certainly not going to come down soon. It doesn't seem like what everything is happening in the straight and with two

trillion dollar deficits and the Fed's not going to raise rates. I don't think to reduce inflation, this drops going to pressure them to cut rates some more. So I kind of agree that that number is terrible for Trump, but it's a little hard to see why it gets better. I think the other thing that this is related to, it's really divided in is the degree to which people just have a sense in their own lives, like what they were able to afford. And I think this was really what

I could happen, like during the tutoring COVID, right? And it's just like in the normal daily kind of products that you buy. Like there was a sense that when we hit that big inflation spike in 2022, you know, at least you got to dinner once a week. It's like it's getting tight, you know, or I have to go and I'm going to dinner. I'm not going to get the wine tonight because I know it costs too much, right? And it's not that long ago. I mean, people, you know, now it's five

“years ago. But people remember that a sense that they could do this or that without worrying,”

you know, about the family budget. And like that did change. I guess it was, you know,

we're about to get to a JBL compliment here in a second. It's JBL underestimated. I mean,

it was talking about, you know, the reaction of the Biden economy in 2024 is something about how, well, you know, employment was still up, you know, like there are all these other indicators that wasn't as bad as a great recession, but the poll numbers were as like, yeah, it wasn't as bad as a great recession in macro, but in micro and every individual's life, like something, there was something had changed that was annoying, but made them have to

tighten their belt in a various way. And I'm like, everybody can see that and people don't like that. Well, if you're like they're getting punished, like I have the same job or the same, what I've been, you know, I have the same, you're kind of aspirations for what I wanted to do. And I can't do it anymore, you know, because the cost went up and then Trump ran against that economy. And now he's exacerbated that, right? And it's not as if it's even stayed the same. It's gotten a little worse.

Now it hasn't hit hyperinflation, we're not in whatever, but like the same complaint is exists. And now we're layering big gas prices on top of that. And so to me, that if you think about it like that, it's totally understandable why has numbers to be that low? Yeah, and it's just a leasing for

“except Trump's foolish policies. I mean, that is to say, if I think if you have a pandemic,”

Trump, in a way, didn't pay as much for price, J.V. was very annoying about this, too. And, you know, that for his mismatch of the pandemic, but I do think voters there thought, who not at such a nightmare that no one knows how to handle it well. And Trump's popping off a little more than he

should, but he's finally handling it that much worse than in other countries. And, you know, so you get a

little bit of a, and if there's a huge, you know, Russia's invasion of Ukraine actually in Europe, politicians who were in power, then didn't pay as much for price for a rough six, nine months of gas price since then stuff. This is totally caused by Trump. There's no exogenous reason why this should be happening, right? I mean, you know, and they're not even offering one. It's like, they're even

saying that there's some acute threat. And, you know, if I get it, why just because we mentioned the

5,000 soldiers and Jeremy, this is relevant to this. And Trump's proposing, I'm a hawk. I've always

argued the defense, but we took down defense sound too much in the 90s and he used to go back up, got by a little faster than it had what's going up. Trump's proposing a 1.5 trillion dollar defense budget, which is, I don't know, 40% increase some insane increase. Just a number they made up and is totally unward from reality. I suppose they're not going to get it, they'll get something though. But I do think that's also heard a good, it's like, wait a second. If Trump's saying,

like, you know what, we'll have to pull it tight in our belts. It's rough out there for various reasons. I can kind of explain to you a little bit. And therefore, 5,000 troops out of Germany, and therefore, cutting back into other things. We're increasing defense by massive amounts and pulling the troops out of Germany. So where's this money going? What's going to Don Jr and Eric and

“all this? I just think it all becomes a bit of an error. The drone company has now, I think,”

gel together, not due to any great genius, honestly, on the parts, probably, whether you've

any of the democratic, small deal or capital, the opposition to Trump, but just because it is true. I mean, the corruption and the club'socracy is happening at the same time. The prices are going up. And at the same time, that they're irresponsible. We want to spend a huge amount of money on defense without being any work, without being compensated, however, that any sense of competency of competence is how they would use these troops and how they'd use this money. Anyway,

I think it's all kind of come together in that respect. Any updated thoughts on how Trump's terrible numbers match up with the House Senate State of Play coming up? And obviously, we have, I should mention, I did mention the ruling last week, getting section to the Voting Rights Act. I went very deep on us with Mark Elias over the weekend, if you can see that on the board, take Sweden or on the YouTube if they missed it. Talk to about, you know, what's happening here

in Louisiana, where Jeff Landry's literally nullifying some votes. People at Santa an absolute ballot votes are ready and they stop in the election, in order to try to jam through or redraw the map to get rid of one of the majority minority districts here in the state. And so I do think that that will conceivably make some difference on the margins and they're looking at Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, maybe squeeze one seed out all those. Obviously, that's condemnable and bad

than in the macro. I don't think it changes the House picture all that much, but what's your sense of the state of play? I agree with that. The generic ballot, which had been trailing Trump's disapproval, if you don't admit, the gap wasn't moving as fast and I get the endeavor to move quite as fast, because they can be some disapproval versus still one of our public and right here. It has moved now. I mean, that post ABC poll is like plus five on the

chair, but then with those who are most sure they're going to vote, it's plus nine Democratic,

“that's that's a real number. I mean, I think it was plus eight and 2018, so that would get you”

to a real big move, sort of 2006 does seem to be the model when what I'm not enough for Santa. Plus nine isn't enough. I mean, you may need to get as double digits. And I think that's doable, at least things do tend to pick up a little bit, and the last six months, the four or five months of the campaign. Once you get them a mental going a little bit, the one thing I'm interested in that I think people haven't talked about much. I have no idea that the numbers

are big enough to make this happen. I mean, I do think black voters are literally going to lose, there's not going to be a black Congress where it looks like if they succeed in their registering plans from Louisiana, from Alabama, maybe from Mississippi, or I can't, you know, I'm sure about that. I know, Louisiana, it's still of one conceivable with the new map, but you know, they could redraw it again because right now we have two. And so, but Alabama,

it was, yeah, Tennessee could lose all the, you know, and I got to think black voters were also other voters who think really, I mean, that's now, we're not just like basically, let's have literally white congressional delegations. From seven states that have 25-30% black population, we're not talking about literally white congressional delegations, Utah, you know? So I wonder if it does, if blacks go out to vote more, A is try to say one or two of those seats and B,

at least thinking about in the Senate race. And I actually wonder, someone I haven't looked at this closely enough to have an intelligence or an opinion about it, but this is to be already people were talking, Lou Lauren, right about this for us was sort of talk to be in play. Alabama, there's a good candidate in the Democratic side who's a former

never Trump Republican, Republican voter against Trump, I know slightly from that world,

or I don't know quite Louisiana, I'd refer to you on that, but there's a mess you're looking at. Louisiana is not happening. I'm not saying that. But now, unfortunately, if I'm not created anybody good, but there's a good, the people that have been recruited are all good humans, I don't mean to impede that, and it's just not on the electability side. So I just think black turnout could go up in these states and maybe tip one of them into the

column, and then the farming economy, I do think in Kansas, and Iowa, where there are good

“Democratic candidates, there are primaries, both cases, but I think whoever would win would be”

good actually, at least would be more interesting and more plausible than a typical Democrat in those states, I think they're in play. So I do think the map is widened a lot on the Senate. I'm interested in Mississippi, so I call on as the candidate, their black eye, who's one in the state, you know, the Brandon Presley, that race was not so far off, like a few years ago when he ran,

require, obviously, swing voters, it requires everything, to win a Mississippi, you need to,

you need a perfect straight, because you're going to need to use turnout, particularly among black voters, and then have, you know, depressed white, let's just be honest, older white, Republican-based, deciding that they're pissed of Trump over the war, prices are farm, economy, et cetera, and that not voting at all. So TVD, I do have to give one finger like, because there are interviewed Kyle Sweetsher, who's the candidate you mentioned,

ruling in Alabama, and there was some pushback in the comments about how there are some people in Alabama and the Democratic groups who don't trust him and are upset about him, because he gave an opinion about transports, and do you want to youth that they don't like, and she's like, guys, it's Alabama, please, please, you know, like, please, I do think that if Democrats are going

to be able to win, I don't even know what this position was on it, because my point is kind of

“doesn't matter, like, please, if you want to win a race in Alabama, there has to be some”

some grace extended about maybe some differing views on cultural issues, just to encourage everybody to take kind of a deep breath. When it comes to that kind of thing, because these states now Alabama is going to be a real stretch, and that counts a good guy. But, you know, Iowa, there's interesting candidates that just jumped in the Kansas race, who's a, there's a pastor, they're a couple of good candidates, and the Kansas race, and you've met Montana, you have this

independent running, who is a college administrator. So, I don't know, you know, I mean, all of that stuff seems more in play now than it could have been, and that is important for this reason. JBL, I told you a compliment him wrote at the end of last week, and his newsletter about about the disaster scenario, which is that the Democrats win four Senate seats, but don't take the Senate because it's federal in flips. And if you, if you have any worries that JBL is a

catastrophe, or JBL is always so negative. Well, two days later, here's Politico, Jonathan Martin,

talks about how the full court press is on to get federal to flip in this scenario. Trump figures past a message on to Hannity when federalman was on Hannity, and Hannity relayed this saying that Trump told him that his job was to tell federalmen, he's got to run as a Republican, he's going to have our full support, more money that he's ever dreamed of, and he's going to win big. So, you know, that could conceivably mean that the Democrats have to win five states.

Let's take you out of it. I've kind of settled the big four on North Carolina, Maine, Ohio,

“and Alaska. I think it's the most likely, but so now if you've got to win a fifth, now you're really into”

this Iowa Kansas Montana, Alabama territory. I think JBL was right, and I mean, I don't know that federal will switch, but he could, it's happened before, and it's pretty worrisome. But look, I don't think if you're going to pick enough wave, you could get, you know, maybe it's just like it gets six is four at that point. You know, I mean, things start to topple over. Yeah, text, so you throw a towel or you come in there. Yeah, no, I do think that is, um, it is

getable. The federal thing is he keeps falling back on live voted most with the Democrats, and it's true, but the degree to which he was poking people in the eye. So again, there's a moment where Trump's approval rating is in the tank. The federal rules out this weekend on Fox again, talking about how the Democrats have TDS, and we should just be supporting Trump's foreign policy, Marco Rubio's done a good job. It's just like, what, I mean, honestly, how are you even getting

that? I mean, federal men is more enthusiastic on Trump's foreign policy moves than some Republican, some actual Republican senators. It's a degrees not just being whatever exasperated or, you know, a trouble maker and so forth, and that really wants to run again.

“He is, you know, laying the groundwork for switching parties. I think regardless of what happens”

in November, whether he's the 50 49th or 50 at the 51st or 52nd, Senator, and laying the groundwork for having Trump be grateful enough to him that he tries to clear the field elementary could actually, but, you know, in the Republican private in 2028 Pennsylvania, assuming that the federal wants to run again. So I do think that's the only kind of rational explanation for what he's doing. It's not the normal, what we mentioned earlier, just to link from the left,

because they don't like central Democrats and the central, like left-wing Democrats, but you're afraid for so good there, was it extending grace to people? I mean, the people need to calm down. It's, you know, what? I will for fighting all kinds of fights on issues. And on personalities, if you want in 2027, 28 and left-wing presidential candidates, so they'll have Hillary. He or she will resolve things, but there has to be a somewhat coherent democratic

position on some key issues. Now, they can tolerate a pretty big tent here. And the degree, which are you finding this? I'm getting, like, people want to have meetings to say, to litigate various issues within the Democratic Party, and the Democratic tent, and the Democratic tent. I'm glad you're about to follow that. It's a little bit of a state about it, honestly. I mean, I've sort of wrote some slightly tert email back to someone who wanted to come to

some meeting about this and how we have to, it's like, no, I just think I'm going to do this meeting,

partisans on, I was going to say both wings, but there's kind of like three wings. There's, like, the moderate Democratic group that want to just make condemning Graham Platner and Hassan Piker,

the most important thing right now. And then there's kind of like the wokes, Democratic groups,

that's going to have to people who, like, Swedes are who have the wrong position on transporas. And there's like the lefty populist group that, like, wants to go after a list of slotkin, like, she's the devil. And it's just like, I have preferences in all this case. But if you can sit here right now, in May of 2026, and look at the field right now, and look at what is happening in our politics. And you're like, the thing that makes me the most mad right now is a

“list of slotkin or grim Platner. Like, I don't relate to you at all. Like, I think that is a total”

misjudgment about what is happening. I think that a list of slotkin and Graham Platner, if they're both in the Senate together, would both cast votes, I disagreed with, but I don't think either of them are in any way a threat to the Republic or a threat to, you know, the future of our, of our country and our children, and like right now, we have this like disastrous presidency that is happening, where he is, you know, trying to grab power for himself, go around the law, jail as enemies,

kill protesters, put immigrants in horrible condition prisons, get us into a stupid war that has no rationale that's going to wreck the global economy. And it's like, that's the thing to be mad about. Like, that is the thing to be mad about. If you are mad about, you know, other faction of the democratic party right now, and you're trying to, you know, gain a little bit more power for your faction between now and 2028. I think that is a total waste of time, and it shows a horrific judgment

about what the real threat is to the country. So there you go. That's my answer about that. Thank you for getting me fired up, Bill. That was excellent. That was excellent to people should need to hop to it and listen to you on this. No, I totally agree. And winning the house would help

“would be the single most important thing to slow down and give us a chance to minimize the damage”

Trump could do in his last two years. And winning the house and the Senate would really make a huge difference. This is where I come back to the Senate. The Senate confirms, I mean, not both cabinet, obviously, nominees and tough cabinet, but also justice is supreme court justice and also law court judges. So if you think what Trump's going to do in those last two years, if he has 51 Republicans in the Senate, he's going to jam through every judge he can

who will uphold his policies and also uphold his attempt to seal the election in the 2028. And I'll hold every Republican redistricting plan like the kind of we've seen that are going to create no black members of Congress from 7 states to 25% black population. I mean, that's kind of important to stop that or to stop more of it from happening. And that means winning the house and say even more, rather even more of it, in addition, but importantly in addition, winning the Senate

if possible. So yeah, it's the same in the next attorney general. And who knows if he's if willing just to act in, like that, the Senate could confirm that and look at what, you know, what that could possibly mean. Yeah, just one more thing on federalman. I do the one hope full thing I have about federalman is, is he such a baby? I think that he would maybe get more joy out of being the 51st Democratic Senator and forcing Chuck Schumer to come to him for everything that they

wanted to do. Then he would be to switch sides and just and be a Republican that gets one nice new cycle from his friends at five. And after that, it becomes irrelevant. Anyway, just to thought, the mansion Christmas set of a precedent isn't that respect very bad, because his kids talk people how much power you have. How much power you have. How much power you have. You're the 50th

year to 50 first vote. I should just mention, well, we're ranting about inter coalition issues.

Lauren Egan, our colleague head of an interesting story over the weekend about how some DNC members have been privately discussing, tried to move out Ken Martin as DNC chair. Ken Martin gave an incomprehensible interview to John Favreau from Penn State of America that I did a live watch of

“on the screen last week. If you want to go see that, but like, those interesting story by Lauren”

and I think that it is important to understand the degree of anxiety inside the Democratic coalition right now about ensuring maximum success this year. I just don't think the chair of the party is really as important as other people doing. Having worked at the Republican National Committee, the Republicans won some years with bad chairs, lost some years with good chairs. You can only

do so much and those communities have gotten less and less powerful over time. That said,

I don't know if you have any observations about the campaign. I had the same, I've had the same experience in the Washington, the quality of the party chair is very little correlation with anything basically. I do want to give one shout out, except a lot of people miss us. Are you aware that the shutdown is over? Yeah, it's good point. It doesn't even get covered. It's crazy. The DHS shutdown is especially over. The House voted via voice vote to advance the plan that frankly,

the bill crystal is pushing for for many months ago, which is just fund the rest of the DHS,

out. The House Republicans are saying this is unacceptable and they eventually folded. And as

they've done so many times in Mike Johnson, basically gives the Democrats a win. It's an

interesting matter commentary on the media that like there's not a lot of desire to give high-queen referees or Chuck Schumer credit for things, because the right wing media hates them. The mainstream media wants to call it both ways, the left wing media, which is they were strong or for good reason. And so there's nobody out there pointing out that, you know, they did the shutdown. They didn't have to do. There's some political risk to it. And it worked. And now CBP and ICE

didn't get additional funding. And if they want to fund them, they got to fund them to reconciliation,

“which is a pretty meaningful concession, because our reconciliation bills the only way that they're”

going to be able to do anything this year. And, you know, this makes that even harder. I mean, I feel like Jeffrey's and sure we're done. I mean, there's say things occasionally that annoying me, you know, and they are quite who I would if I could magic switch with Schumer. If I could just pick someone and that's probably wouldn't pick him. But they haven't done a bad job. I mean, given, and they were really off, you know, the first six months rattled them as we were saying before

about us, they rattled everyone around you. They've kind of adapted, and I feel like they're doing okay. And Chuck Schumer foolishly trying to get Janet Mills in retrospect foolishly to be the to run for the Senate in Maine. So he tried to get her to do so. She tried. She failed. And now Chuck Schumer's having a court trial conversation with your man, Peter there and that's not my name. Hi. Yeah, I'm just saying. Hi. He said he didn't do a great job in Maine. We will say,

that was a fuck up. He doesn't matter. It's not going to matter. He's they're going to put money in if a hot to help him these Collins. And so yeah. And so is a Ron Warretter, because of the great. But like tactically speaking, shutdowns have worked. So Kudos. All right, final topic. The triumphal arch, the triumphal arch. We have some renderings now. Some 3D renderings of this monstrosity. Apparently it's going to be four times larger than the initial proposal. It will be over kind of between

Arlington cemetery and the Lincoln Memorial. I don't know. Like there's part of me that's like the more time Trump is spending on the arch. The last time he's doing more damaging things. But it's it's it's it's pretty it's pretty depressing. So I don't know. What do you what do you make of a triumphal arch? I mean, it's really it's going to task in any case. But it's really going to task in the large in addition to being just grotesque and theory and you know in principle.

And I mean, if people don't know Washington, they wouldn't maybe quite appreciate. But you know, that's a very nice fist when you come across the way over it. You get the Lincoln Memorial one side of the wall. And then Arlington cemetery on the other. And it's very moving when you see Arlington spread out there. And this massive thing is going to be writing that middle the area where you go around that little, you know, traffic circle to get from Virginia to

D.C. So now it's really grotesque. And everything's great. The grotesque, I wonder how much I hope that's turning people off. He wants to build even a nice baseball golf course. I don't play golf.

So I've never been there, which people use. I mean, it's quite well-used. It's well golf course.

He wants to rip that up so he can have a PGA level golf course for, you know, for his vanity and

“probably make money off it too. And also I have built his garden of heroes. I think about that”

from it. He's going to designate who the 250 heroes of America are. I guess with that, any input, really, from anyone else. You know, these other, like a memorial, what I believe is, like Congress had something to say about where that weather that was going to be built. And anyway, that was not a close call. He's going to decide if he's here or so. And build this giant garden for them. The whole thing is just so kind of Stalinist and Kim Jong-un like and Mussolini like and stuff. It's but the

arch is maybe the most if you're eating it from, I guess, all those things because it's because it's because of the Arlington side of it. I mean, it's such a lovely an Arlington, it's such a wonderful place. I mean, the gray stones are pretty much all the same, right? There's none of this kind of grand die. You know, you don't get a bigger one because you were, you know, a general, I suppose, to a private, at least, I don't think they're really any. Maybe there's one or two that are

so old days. They've got kind of the nicer, you know, bigger things. But certainly, that's not the case today, obviously. And we've got a section 60 where the recent Fets are, the recent people who died in Iraq and Afghanistan, and some of our buried, it looks just like the sections where World or Two Vets are buried. So it's a very moving vista, which is arch is going to destroy, which is why

“I think the veterans groups are simply to stop it. And I hope that the courts do step up and stop”

all out of the stuff. And I hope maybe Congress, another thing Congress could do with the Democrats controlled it. Sure, Trump might veto their attempts to stop it, but let him veto it, and then pass it again and again and again and try to put him on this, why exactly are you doing this? And I do think it brings home to people he's spending money on his vanity projects. He doesn't care

about you. That was Trump's always a strength, right? You know, he cares about you,

allegedly, and the Democrats don't. And so I think that's really given that away.

check, you know, you take all the money that he's supposed to spend on the golf course,

“the triumphal arch in the ballroom, add it all up together, divide it out, you know,”

everybody under the age of 35 gets a check for 50 bucks instead of the triumphal arch.

I don't know, that's the best idea. Well, keep looking, brainstorming on that.

Well, keep working on it. All right, that's Bill Crystal. We appreciate you very much.

“Lots of people are going to San Diego and LA. Remember, get your tickets, May 20th and May 21st”

looking forward to being out there and we'll be back tomorrow with another edition of the podcast. See you all then.

“The board podcast is brought to you. Thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper,”

associate producer Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Lutz and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.