Jeffrey Goldberg and Joe Weisenthal: Pandora's Box Has Been Opened

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And the time and the money you can't invest in it. For all of you, let's go! Now, the test of Shopify.de. Hello, welcome to the board podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller. We got a double header today, a double header tomorrow. Great guest, Thursday. We said too many good guests. We're just giving you just a bounty of content on the podcast this week. In addition to that tonight, Tuesday night on YouTube, I'll be live stream and taking your questions around 830 each time. So go on to the board YouTube feed. In segment 2, we got my man Joe Wise and Thal, the stalwart who is going to talk about the economics of the Iran War.

But up first, he's the editor-in-chief of the Atlantic. You might have heard of that magazine. We have guest from there from time to time and he's moderator of Washington Week with the Atlantic.

It's Jeffery Goldberg. How are you doing Jeff? I'm good. How are you? I'm doing pretty well. What are you wearing? What is that saying? It's a podcast. It's a pat, had a woman at a hippie woman at the Venice market. What are the lips called this stuff? You have four of us. Yeah, the farmers market. Which one? The one in Venice, California? Oh Venice. She came up in Washington. She came up to me that she had all her family used to be Republicans.

She didn't talk to them anymore and I'm her only lifeline and she doesn't give me gifts and so she made me a patch and a little piece of art.

“And it was very nice. It was very sweet, man. We had embraced. Are you a Republican? I'm not. No, haven't been since what 2020. I can remember. Yeah. What are you doing now?”

I mean, I am a podcaster now. I'm a content creator. Is that a party? Well, kind of. I mean, we're growing. I mean, it is a party. We're growing in numbers. It's going to functionally a Democrat. I voted for one Republican since 2016. And what do you believe in? Like are you a conservative Democrat? I love having Jeffrey Goldberg on the show because it's like immediately. I get to be in the guest seat, which is way more fun than ask what he is. Yeah, but what do you believe? Do you still have conservative ideals? You know, I talked about this at great length for like probably over an hour on a Atlantic sponsored podcast, the day I missed show.

Just ask me about it. It's just like a week ago. No, it's fine. So if you want the long story, it's that I listen to show our podcasts, Atlantic staff. Yeah, sometimes it's they stack up. Okay. Well, good. We'll get to this one and you get to this one in the queue. You can get the long answer. The short answer is I have a lot of live liberal and we only have one small L liberal party in the country anymore. And so for for a while. You're willing to move back to a reformed Republican party. I don't think that's going to happen. No, I don't think it's going to happen. I'm asking you whether you think it's going to happen. I'm asking you if it did happen. Would you move back? I don't know. Like if if if the Democrats became a liberal and then, you know, classical liberalism reemerged in the spirit of free markets and free people reemerging their Republican party. Could I switch sometime in old age? Like, yeah, yes, sure.

“Anything could happen. But I think more likely is the Republicans will start looking more like foreign conservative parties around the world, which are blood and soil nationalist parties.”

That's the party in almost every country except for an angle sphere. I don't see why that wouldn't be our trajectory. Okay. Thanks. My guest has been Tim Miller. Right. Great. We'll come back after our advertising from Budapest cruise lines. Do you have even monitoring the hunger area in elections coming up? Have I been monitoring them? I've been trying to influence them. What do you want, Manor? Brain waves, just pure, like, psych waves. Yeah, I feel pretty good. I don't know. The vice president going there. I'm more interested in the Danish.

Maybe we could get a win for a little democracy. Let's talk about your signal change. Are people doing people still message you on signal?

“About one year ago was the last time you're on the podcast. I guess three and a turn four days ago technically because it was the day after I feel like I'm always on this. Why is that?”

I don't, it feels like a logically time flies, you know. But the Pete had, why don't you have me, why don't you have more me on more. You're a challenging booking. You're busy. You've got to do usually run a little weight. Have some tech problems. That is, that is, that is, you are now speaking truth. So, you know, some of your colleagues are a little bit more amenable. That's been a year. You wrote, I guess, about the Pete Higgs, that exception about this, uh, about this text chain and now essentially it makes sense.

So you didn't say it exactly, especially, but essentially you believe the Pete Higgs, that should have been court martials for the text that he just said.

“No, I'm not saying no. He's a civilian. So he's not going to be court martial. I'm saying all I'm arguing, which I think has the benefit of logic.”

All I'm arguing is that if anyone else, a big three million or so people who report to Pete Higgs at uniform and civilian had done what he did.

He did, um, they would have had to pay a price for it. Like, you get punished for doing that. You get punished in the military, but almost anything. You misplace your rifle. You can get court martial. Yeah. You know, you know, it's illegal to text a family member if you're in the armed services. It's, it's against regs to, um, to say, "Oh, my unit is moving on Tuesday from Fort Folk to Fort Bliss." Like, we're on that, we're, you know, we're convoying up. You can't say that. That's, that's, that's operational movement.

Um, so you can't do that without getting in trouble. How can you put into a commercial messaging app without knowing who's in the chain, who's in the, uh, who's in the conversation? Uh, we're about to bomb Yemen. Stand by for more information on the bombing. That's now starting. I mean, it's just doesn't, it just, it just annoys me because I would like one standard for our highest officials and the people who also report to them. I just think it's fair. It's just also very frustrating when people just don't tell you the obvious, obvious truth. It's crazy making when someone just lies to your face.

And it's just like, hey, you know, hamburgers eat people, uh, you know, the sun rises in the west. And it was not, uh, it was not classified for me to send you the exact timing and coordinates of a bombing. Right. Our pilots are leaving in a half hour to bomb a country that is protected by Iranian anti-aircraft batteries. Um, they'll be over the target in two hours. No, that's not sensitive. No. That's not classified. That's not, I mean, technically, this is the thing. This is the way, this goes to the much deeper problem.

Right. Technically, it's not illegal if the defense secretary does it when you're the defense secretary. They let they let you grab him by the, you know, classified in a nation. Um, it's not illegal because he has declassification authority. He's an original classifier along with the president, which the president called you up today and gave you the exact Greek coordinates of the locations of every nuclear submarine in the United States Navy. He could say, I'm just decline. I'm a declassifier. So I decided to share this. I mean, it would be a grieges terrible thing to do. Um, but this, so this goes to, you can have rules and regulations and they should be enforced.

“But the deeper problem is you have to hire people with judgment and discretion and smarts in order to be the, I mean, to be the declassifier is an awesome responsibility.”

Yeah. And the fact is that Pete Heck said, obviously, wasn't up to the task of taking his job, taking his role responsibly, taking his role seriously. Neither was Mike Waltz. And you're kind of article that was reflecting on this. This is a piece of information that we've gotten since we last podcast about this. One of my favorite little nuggets was that Mike Waltz had said that you're, that he would never text you.

You're disgusting pig and you're, you're horrible and fake news and you have a recessive file and you're subhuman and like so you had, he would never.

And so your number must have just gotten sucked into his phone. And then as if like it's almost too stupid even beyond. So as he smiles like asked Elon Musk to like, look at the phone and assess whether it was useful. She got a genius far away. At the, at the, at the, at the Navy at the White House mess. You know, and me me too. And she took, she actually told Mike Waltz, give me your phone.

But the text, but it's just good. Right. It's not. It's got sucked in there.

“It's impossible. Elon said no. Elon said no, you've just added his phone number into the chat because he has my phone number.”

And I thought you were going to refer to something else, which was like three days after this whole thing started unfolding. Somebody found this picture of Mike and me, uh, of French embassy. By the way, listening to Bernard Henri Levy. It's like, this is like Washington Mad Libs. You're listening to Brown and Levy give a talk at the French embassy and Mike Waltz and I are standing with each other. And it's like, yeah, I know him. I mean, I found it, you know, I know him. It's like it's, it was, maybe it was an air drop then actually that might help Mike Waltz.

Okay, so because, you know, sometimes if you put your phone really close to someone else's phone, yeah, that usually doesn't show without intentionality. The whole point is that is that they could have made it a two day story by going, whoops. We won't do that again. But instead, they decided to attack me and more to the point, more relevant. They attacked the Atlantic as as a lying institution. They said that we are lying. You know, about, I don't know why. And then they go to us into releasing the whole transcript of the, of the signal chat. It was just kind of typical knee jerk reaction.

So let's talk about Higgs's performance then in the intervening year for you to Iran. It's just first about how he's dealing with the press and how he dealt with this situation.

And since then he's kicked the press out of the print to gun, he has these press conferences that are, I can say, you know, what do you say there and saying. I just think it's pretty strange to have a former weekend talk show co host. Like talk is like, you know, not like the way you nail the code area. I trust it to drive that truck alone up there like screaming about the early thallity and how, you know, we have the righteous justice of the Lord on our side and like not answering any questions and just ran and like making fun of people and insulting the media members.

“It's it's unusual type performance. That's how you usually would see. And I don't even know we live in some weird simulation now. I know it's so far.”

Like we've had competent defense secretaries. We've had incompetent defense secretaries. You know, we've never had anything like this performance. Look, by the way, going back to signal gate. What he was he's a performer, right? He was performing in the chat for JD Vance and then the others, presumably and like the grownup Marco Rubio who, if you notice in the signal chat doesn't really participate in the signal chat because he's probably sitting there going why are we doing this on signal right like what is this BS.

But on the second day state, I don't actually need to know that a two, fifteen, we're, you know, we're dropping this to our people.

If I want to, but I don't want to know, I have enough information. It's like Mike, you know, Mike and Pete, you drop the bombs. I'll try to whatever, but, but, but, you know, the point is that as that headset was performing in the, in that chat in the same way that it performs for the public. It's like I literally thought as I'm watching the thing unfold. If I talk to myself, which I don't, but if I did talk to myself, I would have been sitting there saying to my phone, Pete, you're the actual defense secretary. You don't have to play defense secretary.

Like you do have this power. We all recognize that you can bomb shit. You know what I mean? Like, and he was like showing off for JD Vance. I got all the, look, listen to me using all my, you know, the bombing begins now, you know, kind of rhetoric and that's what you see.

“He only has like one performance mode, right, which is like this kind of preemptive hyper aggression, which I think is so overcompany.”

Yeah, and, and like if you just look at the greatest military leaders, it's not just secretaries of defense, but if you just look at even pattern. I'm going down to, let's do it. Going on one of those random things, but I feel, I feel culturally I miss this as a gay man, because I feel like this is like what straight guys do when they turn 40, they just kind of hang out. Well, before you talk to them, you just watch pattern. Yeah, this is talking about former military leaders, name dropping former military leaders and their great moments. Let's do it. I like this. That's right, right, right. You know, gay people can read about pattern.

I know, it's a cultural, I know, it's not that I'm not familiar with who pattern is it is culturally, I think that it is just, it's kind of stereotypically like a straight dad's behavior to start.

Correct.

Yeah, no, but the thing about the pattern, this, this is the one of one aspect of hexes leadership that bothers me is his dismissal and insulting attitude about military education.

Right, educating our officers to understand history, morality, the role of a military in a democracy, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. He thinks this leads to weakness, right. The truth is General Patton believed and he was the, you know, let's say, let's say of the, the ones who are like the triumvirate in my mind, you know, Eisenhower, Omar Bradley Patton, three different types doing the same thing across Europe, you know, and winning back Europe from the Nazis. Eisenhower, obviously, reflective Omar Bradley was cerebral Patton was the one we think of as, you know, kind of like blood and gut.

He was in many ways, but he, he believed that no military officer could be competent unless he understood, you know, the dynamics of the Peloponnesian war.

He, he thought that constant education was, the pertina was was was was was was a requirement for effective military leadership.

So when headset comes out against education, it's almost, it's comical. I mean, it would be comical if it weren't so dangerous. And so like I can't, I don't understand. And by the way, he's not a stupid person, he's pretty smart. Yeah, but he's like a smart person playing a stupid person. I think I think he has brain capacity. I just think he's so like broken. I did just search his Twitter account. He's never typed the word Peloponnesian doesn't mean that he's not familiar with it.

“You know, are you spelling it correctly? I am. Yeah, I am. I've got the way, but by the way, I can send you a list of movies and books that we could call it the gay man. I appreciate it. No, thank you. Really?”

You can watch David Ryan, of course. I do have kind of an informal book club with your colleague in Appleball where she comes on and suggests books to me and I think that's the reason. Yeah, I've read all, I've read. I've read all of the most recent one.

So it's explained to me why you take her book recommendations, but you wouldn't take mine.

Well, I just, I don't need to be gratuitous about it. Okay. I need to kind of keep my reading fresh. I try to mix up like here in an Applebaum book about somebody escaping the Nazis or about, you know, what happened in Poland, you know, when the Soviets came in, like I'll read that and then I'll read like a gay coming of age novel. And then I'll try to take your recommendations for you. What about again, coming of age novel during patterns? I've read a couple of those about World War I. Some of these World War I is very popular for the for the gay books. That's interesting.

What, what do you think about Pete Higgs and either you or I thought the conversation was going to go that way. We did not know Alice wins in memoriam is more most recent one I'd recommend on that front if you're going to do a book exchange. Okay, you guys have been kicked out. The Secretary of War is is cracking down on I don't call them Secretary of War until Congress authorizes the name change. I do it only in a mocking tone. I would just do it just before. I just I wouldn't put it in print, but if I can say it out loud people can understand, I don't know, I understand.

“We've been kicked out of the Pentagon. Is that what you're saying?”

Yeah. I mean, everybody's been kicked out. Yeah, they keep putting new rules on that and just all real media organizations, including Fox, which has great defendants. You just run or media organization that, you know, particularly has focused and done a recording on the military issue. I want non journalists understand something that our Pentagon correspondence, know what's going on in the Pentagon, whether or not they're sitting at the Pentagon. It's more convenient to sit in the Pentagon and then the old dispensation when you could leave the press room and go to the Secretary of the Army's office or the Secretary of the Navy's office or sit in the mess and talk to people sitting in the cafeteria.

You know, there is there is utility to that, but it's not as if Higgs said there's going to be able to stop independent reporting on the United States military because he won't let reporters in the building. By the way, one other point about this that needs to be made is that and I feel very, very strongly about this.

“It's like, we have writ large in the mainstream media, I believe, a patriotic press corps.”

And by that, I mean, let me explain, I mean that the people I know want as Americans, what's in the best interest of the serving men and women of the United States. And they are there to examine and bring to light the decision making of military leaders and they are there to be critical when those decisions are ill-advised or if there's corruption or there's this that and the other thing.

In other words, in other words, what Pete Higgs said what have you believe is that these are a bunch of DSA members or Cuban communists or something who are sitting there trying to undermine the very idea of national security.

These are national security walks are our our traditional press corps, they know a lot and they tell what you would say let's call it in for short and good stories of the military.

In other words, when somebody does something heroic or when they have when they have a tactical achievement or when a new weapon system works they will tell you they're not there. It just annoys me to know in that that that that that that they are cast as enemies of the people enemies of the state enemies of the idea that America deserves security. And that the military is the means through which we preserve our national security and therefore preserve our ability to be a constitutional democracy. Thank you, I'll be taking questions now.

Okay, well, there's a good question on that front because speaking of competence, I hear some commentators, particularly folks who have military expertise who talk are talking about this war. We've had a bifurcate out like the competent manner in which like the bomb packages have you know been delivered what admiral Cooper is doing in sencomers is what secretary of war. Can you see that? Yeah, or yeah. Secondary war.

Secondary war is doing yeah.

How do you assess that? Yeah, so I just at a macro level. How confident do you think the prosecution of this war has been. Honest on a strategic level, a tactical level on a tactical level, it's somewhere between an A and an A plus on a strategic level. You can't grade it because they didn't hand in the homework.

If you know what I mean. Yeah.

“That's what Trump has plans on plans on plans, right? The White House said admiral Cooper bring down the plan that destroys the missile ballistic capacity and navy and air force and nuclear sites of the Islamic we're hovering around.”

Yes, sir. Here's the plan. Okay, go do it. He does it. We're probably, I mean, I hear different things and nobody knows nothing.

I keep that in mind. I hear that from Cooper's perspective. He's the run running running the war. You know, there are 50, 60, 65% through the target package, right? They've done a remarkable job of neutralizing the air defenses. Obviously, they've done a great job so far of neutralizing the navy.

It gets harder because the navy gets smaller and then it becomes a little tiny boats. You know, harassing oil tankers and so on. But, but as a plan to defang Iran, it's working. But what the thing you can't do from the air, obviously, and the thing that you can't do on the ground either is

“instigate the rising that I think all sober-minded people would like to see in Iran, like to see the good people of Iran, take their country back, they're the majority.”

You can't do that because what you can't do, what Sencom can't do is disarm the local, besiege, CG, and revguard formations. You know, they, the eight guys with guns on motorcycles who will shoot anybody who looks like a protester. They killed anywhere between 7,000 and 30,000 protesters just this last period, right? So, these railies are doing some of that, what is happening, we see is that railings, average railings are through signal or however, whatever, whatever, whatever app they're using. Telling these railies, where these besiege, checkpoints are.

And these railies will have these loitering drones that are hovering above Tehran in other cities. They come in and they blow up that checkpoint. That's from the perspective of the Iranian Democratic underground, that's great, but it's not going to achieve all the things that you want to achieve. The police are having kept the straight open. Which can be done, obviously, but at much greater.

Of course, anything to be done, you know, the United States military is the most powerful, technically advanced military in the history of the planet.

And being done is just about, is that what you are planning for, is that what the American people are ready for, is that what your allies, who now I'll hate you, want to do, want you to, you know, I mean there's there's the point is it's like it's not the job of the generals and the admirals to say to Donald Trump.

“So what's your long-term strategy for the Middle East?”

Their job, it's their job to say to answer the question, can you neutralize the ballistic missile sites at X, Y, and Z? Yeah. I can do that. This is kind of like, though, I'd no offense to Cooper or other admirals of generals, but this is kind of to me like grading saying, hey, you take it, my nine-year-old nephew.

and I want you to break all of her pictures on the wall and, you know, do a lot of damage because I'm mad at her and I want to get back at her and he says, okay, and he takes the bat and then goes in there breaks everything and then it's like, I don't know if that's okay. But that's like great.

Now what, though, that was sweet grandma's grandma's China is broken.

Yeah, but let's be fair. I mean, it is hard, it's hard and dangerous work. I'm not going to minimize this hard work. I'm just saying, but it's pointless work. If there is no point, there is no point, it's pointless. I guess this is what I'm saying. Like if there is no strategy, you're saying that they didn't end the homework, but like if there's no strategic objective, then what are you doing? Why, who are you?

Let me argue, I argue a bit against myself and say that in Iran with 90%, oh, say, that's what it ends up 90% of its ballistic misalcapacity neutralized is a better one from the perspective of all of the West, the Arabs and the Israelis, then in Iran with the Naval ballistic missile program.

“But the problem is Iran, then when we do it two years into years, do you have to go back and do this again?”

And three weeks ago, Iran wasn't hitting energy sites with their ballistic missiles. I'm sure they were doing bad stuff. This is not a friendly podcast for the home of the Iranians, but like they're doing more damage than they were doing three weeks ago. Sure, but the latent, the latent possibilities were something that the West had to deal with sooner or later. I, you know, you're not going to get me to go soft on the general question of was Iran a revolution exporting anti-American theocracy was Iran.

I problem for the security of the United States and its allies in the Middle East and beyond sure it was. The question is why now, why this way, look, if there had been planning, you wouldn't have spent the last year alienating NATO. Sure, right? I mean, if there had been any kind of planning, you would have said, "But as secure the strait from moves before we do anything else." That's not be surprised when the Iranians are trying to blow up stuff in the strait. Right? And by the way, I'm now in the camp of people, a lot of people are arguing this.

That a war of choice is becoming a war of necessity in the following, since the global economy is going to be dependent on the strait from moves being open. And the Chinese are watching a third tier power Iran. Let's say Russia is a second tier power and China is a near-peer adversary of the United States. They're watching a third tier power screw with the United States in a narrow waterway.

“Now, what are the Chinese looking at? 24 hours a day, a narrow waterway between Taiwan and China?”

And so are they getting the message that, "Oh, it turns out that America has a hard time mustering the will and capacity to secure and dominate a narrow body of water. We have a narrow body of water, it's really important to us."

And you know, you don't want to come out of this Iran war with China thinking, "Oh, Donald Trump is never going to defend Taiwan if we launch an invasion across the strait of Taiwan."

I mean, that's not coming. This year probably, nobody knows, obviously, but we know generally that the intention of the Chinese long term is to seize Taiwan. So like, we have now opened up a Pandora's box of challenges that were not there when we simply were monitoring the situation as a war. So after a night out with drinks, I don't bounce back the next day like I used to. It's in the genes. My father never bounced back to the next day like he used to either, or his mother.

“So you have to make a choice. One thing they didn't have, but I have, is pre alcohol.”

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“I came up with a better analogy with thinking about your grades. I think about in college sophomore year. I had a class was on Friday mornings.”

You had to show up to the class. That was like part of the rules to get great. I never showed up. I got an A on all the tests and at the end of the semester, I received an F for not showing up.

I decided I had to file an arbitrary and precise grade complaint with the administration. Now here I am. I am with the teacher. The teacher was correct. You can't doesn't matter if you get the test of rules. Anybody that comments and you know you get some tools. You have people that will comment on anything you do. You have to make a goldberg effect it like in the past and your youth. You did work in Israel and I was a research. I did my own research on this actually. You did an interview with the Washington Toneon in 2013 and you said this. If Israel goes much further down the road, I think it's on and becomes more of a the ecstatic totalitarian style state. How could the liberal minded American Jews support that?

I'm just wondering about that in 2002. No, no, no, I wrote. I mean, I've been saying similar point. One of the things that you learned about journalism is you get older is that I have to make too much of it. But I've been warning in my writing in my reporting before I became management.

“I've been warning since the late 1990s about two threats to stability peace and happiness in the future of the Middle East. One is the rise of terrorists Muslim fundamentalism.”

And when I lived in 1999, I lived in a Madraso and Pakistan because I wanted to understand why everybody there was supporting this guy named Osalman Lodden. Nobody had really been talking about the second issue that I've been writing about since that period was is the growing illiberalism on the Israeli right. And I've been banging my head against the wall on those two things for 25, 30 years. And here we are. It doesn't mean you don't do the work. It just means that whatever there are there are forces out there that are pretty powerful.

So I mean, I think everybody who supports the right of Israel to be a free and thriving Jewish majority homeland and haven for the press Jews of the world. By the way, you know, all this European antisemitism and anti Zionism Europe is the reason there has to be an Israel.

“You know, there's not a lot of introspection on their turn, you know what I mean, but put that aside. That's that's part nine of our of our conversation for personal privilege.”

Yeah, yeah, but the thing is it's like you never know when you know something is on a precipice. We think about this a lot you and me about is America an autocratic state is it bending toward autocracy is it bending the other you never know. There's no where where you are like, and I don't know if Israel will be the Israel of my youth ever again, meaning, you know, liberal minded democracy that is trying to come to some kind of equitable solution to the fundamental dilemma.

Right, I do know that there are plenty of opportunities in the past for the Palestinians to have some satisfaction in the form of a state and part of the land they claim.

Yeah, right, and they rejected that and that fed obviously the rise of the right, but what what what concerns me goes in this framework is that Netanyahu has opened up to go back to the Pandora's box idea open up Pandora's box by bringing in people into the government who never would have been allowed into a previous Israeli government. And once that once they have gained power, I don't know how they're easily dislodged. Yeah, so that's where I'm going to get where we're at. I was interested in the second part of the question, though, just like this, this you were asking this rhetorical, how could the liberal minded American Jewish support that if if Israel goes the totalitarian route.

And like there's a lot of conversation about that right now and a lot of accusations flying left and right and I'm just wondering how you either kind of process that conversation and how a liberal minded Jew can have that conversation without dipping over into more problematic territory.

It's too difficult for this podcast, it's hard.

I mean, there's, there's a number of issues, nobody wants to see a second holocaust. Obviously, well, actually, I shouldn't say that.

There are many members of the faculty of Columbia that would like to see a second holocaust apparently, but no one wants to see six, seven million Jews of Israel wiped out.

First of all, it's a silly point because Israel has 150 nuclear weapons. The Jews are not going to easily agree to die. And so I am concerned as a Jewish person and as a human being that that we don't have mass death in the Middle East. And if you think we've had a mass death now, you just wait, you want to see mass death if trends continue. It's becoming very zero sum.

“I think about this phase is like a third in Tefata, the second in Tefata was much more violent in the first in Tefata, the fourth in fifth.”

I don't know.

So obviously, the reason I believe despite the fact that reality is not leaning in my direction, despite the fact that this is impossible at the moment to imagine.

The reason I believe that a two state solution is the only solution is that's the only one that could conceivably prevent mass death from happening in the Middle East. So there's that. The second point in the point you were quoting from 2013 is really analytical at a certain point. It's like, if the Israelis expect them, let's say the majority of American Jews to continue supporting them, they're going to have to model to some degree the mindset of American Jews. American Jews could probably have a better understanding of the unique pressures of being Israeli.

There's a lot of discord in the relationship and it's all geography is destiny, right? And so you have that problem. But it's just a simple observation that the quote, I hate this expression. I'm sorry to use it. The lived experience of American Jews tends to make the majority of them liberal minded and outlook.

“The lived experience of Israelis, especially today, makes them more Middle Eastern, right?”

Israel's becoming a more Middle Eastern country every day, pure power politics, right? And so we're in a conversation that involves so much love and so much frustration and some contempt and a little bit of hope, but a lot of despair. And that's just reality and I haven't. I mean, probably spend the rest of my life working through this, but what I keep in my own mind is like the goal is to keep as many people across the board from dying as possible. I'm probably less quote unquote left than I was in 2013 or 2002 when I was writing against the settlements.

I think now it's like a tragic kind of realism or like a centrist realism which is like until the Muslim world decides that the Jews have a right to a homeland of their own. And at least part of their ancestral home, like it's not really going to change. In the meantime, let's say that that happens. I don't see that happening anytime soon. I mean, the fundamental illogic of Iranian foreign policy and national state policy is,

“what do you care so much about killing all the Jews? Like go get some food for your people, you know? Like what are you doing? Like why is this such a crazy making obsession of yours that led to this moment?”

But let's just say that that happens. There's a cognitive shift or theological shift. I'm afraid that Israel is becoming so right-wing and fatalistic and insulated and insular that that's going to be more Hungary or Russia or Iran today or let's say that the typical illiberal state in the Middle East, as opposed to something where...

Yeah, I don't want to overstate it. Saudi, Saudi or something. Yeah, maybe non-revolutionary not exporting whatever.

But, but, you know, look, it's still a country where you have Arab members of the Kinesi and you know, and 20% of the universities in Israel or Arab students, and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And you have an independent judiciary that's under pressure, but you have an independent judiciary. Look, part of the story of Israel is that it's not unique and it's not immune to some global trends. Obviously, so maybe if the general global trend shifts away from this, it carries a lot, I don't know, you didn't want the whole thing here. We went a lot. No, we started we ended where you were assessing this really right the same way that I was assessing the American right kind of right where it's like everybody there's a global trend towards more blood and soil nationalism everywhere.

Okay, way long, and part of your fault, because you started the podcast with 10 minutes of questioning me, so instead of asking questions, I'm just going to tell everyone to re-heat the McKay-cop in space that you assign to him. You assign to a pure young Mormon man to sell he himself and go gamble and it is an insight into the dangers of gambling and our phones and prediction markets and all that. It's wonderful.

I took McKay several years ago to meet the prophet of the Mormon, the president of the Mormon church and I vouched for McKay that he would be a good reporter on a story about the Mormon church. They.

The Jews in the Mormons have a little symbiotic. We have a little thing going on. Yeah. We haven't loved that. So everybody go read it. It was excellent. It was a great idea on your behalf, Jeffrey Goldberg and the story. You know, we won't maybe every March 24 now. I'll see you in a year.

“I'm happy to come and share my feelings whenever you want.”

All right. Thanks so much to Jeff Goldberg. We had to cut it short, but we got we got a date. We're going to do it again soon. It's not going to be March 24. Thanks, sure. So we'll have them back soon.

But definitely stick around. Up next Joe Wise and Paul. It's good.

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So happy to do it odd lots has been absolutely essential for me especially but I think for everybody I want to explain folks why.

If they if they aren't listeners yet because you go over kind of niche subjects within the economic umbrella day to day and there've been so many of those that have become relevant since the Iran war started here's some of your headlines since since March 10th. Roy Johnson on how oil could surge over 200 bucks a barrel that was like on day one of the war next day Warner on is creating a fertilizer crisis like never before that's where I learned about yuria that March 13th. And it's tea pot oil refineries of our 16th Warner on is chewing through American missile stockpiles to redrawing the map for national gas March 18th we could go on and on so we've been you know you've been looking at all that in the micro.

I don't talk about each of those individually but first just at the macro like sure this war like the market is tied so closely to the war strategy but it's kind of crazy like trump threatens on Saturday. It's really extraordinary I mean I think it's worth just zooming back even a little bit you know going back to the last election just thinking about how much the entire national mood was really about things are very expensive inflation is seemingly out of control. To some extent that was the defining political topic and it's been the defining policy sort of or the defining characteristic of how people view the economy for the last few years.

And I do think it's sort of startling to disagree to which you could definitely say this administration simply has not taken that seriously even slightly and actually just beyond that aggravated the situation for better or worse and then and when I say that I mean one could argue just going back to last year not far from around this time one could say well I really think that we need to reorient our trade with the rest of the world and therefore we have to do something different change the trading relationship nonetheless.

Teriffs make trade with the rest of the world more costly they push up the price of consumer goods you could see it in the data now fast forward obviously to early 2026.

And now of course we see this historic surge in the price of oil you hear that price so it's like okay the prices of a Brent crude which is what they trade in Europe that's around a hundred dollars a barrel it's a bit cheaper right now the West Texas intermediate that we trade here.

“The defective price that the customer pays and especially jet fuel and other things it's implicitly higher because the story that we've learned through these episodes that the refineries that are taking in the crude.”

And turning it into gasoline taking it into jet fuel turning it into diesel etc they cannot shut down they cannot afford to shut down it's too costly for them to ever run out of inputs shut down and then restart the whole thing so they're slowing down their intake of crude and therefore they're operating a slower pace that they would and so the implied price that everyone is now paying whether it's airlines whether it's truckers whether it's people just consuming gasoline is even higher than what's implied by that price.

And so we see this administration undercutting one of the one good things that had going for it economically really across the world across a range of sectors.

So in the one hand you could think well they didn't have to do this to themselves and they cared about it that much but they have and I guess what is obvious is the degree that they at least are sensitive to it and care about it. Yeah at some level it seems like they're trying to do a PR campaign right now as we talk that makes things seem like they aren't as disrupted as they are. Who knows who to believe that like claiming that they're in negotiations with Iran while Iran saying this is fake news they're manipulating the oil markets and Israel's also saying they're kind of manipulating the oil markets off the record developers not on the record.

Like it does seem like their whole strategy at least today PR wise has been around you know trying to limit the spike.

“Yeah I mean I think there's two things to consider here which is you know job owning PR.”

It's a very sort of tactical thing to talk about release of fuel from the strategic petroleum reserve etc. There is nothing that can physically be done by this administration to really emulate the price of oil that can really counteract the complete or the fact of closure of the straight of her moves. There's no tool in the toolkit there are things that the margin that might be able to you know these things a little bit Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that goes to its west coast that can allow some oil to be routed around that area.

There are things that the word pass right past the hoodies and Yemen.

“Right yeah right on the other side that's what they have to deal with there right you know at the margins there are things but not really but the other thing to consider.”

Is that you know you talk to the oil experts and they say that if the market really took seriously that we are at a state of war and that the straight of her move is not going to be opened anytime soon that actually the market prices would be much higher than they are today. Actually the price of a barrel of crude is still lower than the fundamentals would suggest because there is this belief that Trump is going to quote taco that it can't be because this is truly as one of our guests. This is the type of scenario that people don't even take seriously as a scenario because it's too cataclysmic to contemplate and so it's only almost discussed typically as a thought exercise and so the question is like when will the does the market even fully believe the reality that's happening now.

This job owning these PR attempts and things like they don't I mean that's my biggest takeaway from listening to you guys and others in the past few weeks it kind of seems like we're under pricing stuff right now because they really they're just like this is too crazy Trump is going to turn it around but I went out right that there is going to have to be some sort of fold or something you know everyone to talk about the taco. I mean the other thing I always think about the tweet you know we'll see if all dummy rules out of this one because it is true like that's the one that I always think about because it is true that look a lot of people have egg on their face from I don't know the last I guess 10 years.

I was thinking like he's got you know the walls are closing into the truck and closing in and so they're looking for hesitant right now to say wait a minute the walls are kind of closing in right now actually this right how many people have felt stupid from declaring this is the moment is not going to be able to get out of it and I still think more than anything else there is probably you know again I mean you just go back to last year like around the terms and a lot of people probably felt in retrospect that they had gotten to bearish about the terms now.

It really should be noted that Trump himself walked back a lot of what was announced on liberation day and part of the reason it didn't turn into total cataclysm is because he was very sensitive to markets.

Now that there's a question of course as like Iran also gets to say in when the war is over Iran also gets to say in fact they get the say when the state of harm moves is open and so that's how everyone's trying to understand what's really going on. And I do think it's important that for as much as Trump is trying to you know there's a PR game at work there's domestic Iranian politics that exists to and I think it's important day we don't flatten Iran and so when the prime when the speaker of the Iranian parliament.

The Iranian parliament says there is no talks at all and we are not going to end this war until the aggressors are punished.

That's also we know that there's an element of domestic politics there has to be et cetera so don't think we fully understand the situation and lots of games are being played.

“But again I think when you see how quickly the markets can move on the first side of an off ramp you understand why no one fully wants to take the other side of the bat.”

He has like a psychological hold on a lot of people including the market because he has beaten their expectations so many times to have like how do you bet against the guy that's so hot.

I think that explains why why things aren't you know quite as bad as you would think right now in the markets I do wonder what if I'm wrong now.

“Make it maybe I'm wrong too and maybe this and maybe Trump while between the time we're taping this and publish it Trump's calls the eye atola on any junior and he says hey do I got a great deal for you.”

We're going to put a toll booth in the straight you know people are going to dream in charge Melania coin 5% going to go to you 5% to me you know and and we'll just see how still he's right now a deck could have let's say that happens right yeah how much damage is already done economically. It's really good question I think the oil experts think that real sustain damage lasting months has already been done and the reason for that is because you have this situation in which they have run out of oil storage in the golf basically I believe most places and therefore you have to cap wells and it takes time to restart the wells and so I think look there's already damage done I think there's another level of sort of cycle and sort of long term damage.

And this is the story of the last six years since covid it's really extraordinary when you think about it but what we have since covid is repeated reminder to every country in the world that they need to stockpile things right prior to covid or maybe prior to Trump won going back to. 2510 or whatever you know there was this relatively open or very open global trading system and it was efficient and we did not need multiple redundancies of stockpiles of commodities and stockpiles of redundant refineries etc.

The story of the last several years one blow after another to this system the trade war under the first Trump administration covid which of course created this whole thing we're countries needed to hoard various goods the second trade war the war in Ukraine. And of course they are phenomenon in which every country feels that it needs to have sovereign AI needs its own chip production etc and now you layer on to finally this war and so you have one blow after another to the system where countries could feel that they could rely on trading partners and so I think you each time that happens it's like you're moving the floor up you're creating a higher bid under commodities because every countries are like we need to have oil.

We need to have gas we need to have our own refineries we do not we cannot depend on these commodities getting to the court in stockpile just think it's no storm comes in the shelves and that's right and every single event of the last several years push nations in the same direction and so when you talk about the lasting damage from this war there is probably like the proximate version which is okay it will take several months perhaps for all the wells to get going once once.

“How still is truly seas but then there's the second layer I think that probably lasts for years after this which is a further impulse for every country to stockpile more goods and that pushes up the floor that everything can fall to.”

[MUSIC PLAYING]

on a podcast is just this question about safe haven

investments, particularly in the United States. Talk about that a little bit. You know, safe haven investments are, it's a moving target. And, you know, at various times, like the dollar is perceived as a safe haven, because in a crisis, you know, like worst

publishers, you got to pay your rent at the end of the month

“and you need to acquire dollars, no matter how bad things are getting.”

You need to survive to the next month. So sometimes dollars act as a safe haven. And you think short of a zombie apocalypse. It's like you feel like you can get something for your dollar. Yeah, that probably.

That's exactly right. Gold, you know, obviously historically has been a form of money for thousands of years. It's what people buy and hold when they're worried about sort of national stability and sovereign stability.

Good reasons to be worried about that over the last several years. But it's been going up a lot over the last several years. And so now you have the situation in which, okay, the markets are tumbling. Gold is surging like all these trees that you have on are going sideways,

etc. You get a call from your broker. You're getting margin called. We need to put up more cash because your oil short is, you know, you're going to get stopped out.

I got to sell, well, I got to sell something. I got to post cash for this margin. Well, the one thing I have that's been going up as golden. So suddenly gold goes from being a thing that's doing very well to a thing that's doing very badly, etc.

Treasuries, classic safe haven because the government,

US government will always be able to pay back debt that it's in its own

currency and so forth. But there's a fixed coupon on treasures. Maybe they pay 4%. If inflation starts to rise, that 4% doesn't look as good and so forth.

And so suddenly you sell your treasuries even though it had a safe haven characteristic. So the point that I think people should sort of understand is that yes, there are many things around that we call a safe haven.

Even I think it would be fair at times to call Bitcoin a safe haven because if you were mean concern was that you wanted to be able to move money across borders at a time when, you know, the banking system is out inaccessible. Maybe crypto is safe haven properties.

But different environments, different things that we call safe havens don't act the same. So right now treasuries aren't working because of war is inflation area and therefore the value of those coupon payments go down. Who gold isn't working because people need to sell their

winners to pay their margin calls and pay their bills.

“Basically the only thing that's been working,”

weirdly enough is just the US dollar because when you panic and you just like I want to get to the next month of the month after that, you know, the most liquid thing in the world. And you pay your dollars. But it's a moving target and it's a sort of fascinating lens

into these things that we call safe havens.

Do not always have the same properties in different times of the

market. Let's talk about the dollar. The second, my colleague Jonathan last one of his, you know, big catastrophizing predictions about the Trump 2.0 is that the dollars statuses world reserve currency is in threat.

This crisis is another example of why that might be. And the Iranian oil that we, that we sanctioned and then desacctioned and then desacctioned is now being sold using the one. Yeah. You know, so anyway, talk about that on what experts are saying on that topic.

Yeah. I think, you know, a few other currency is sort of as I see. It is like, why is the US dollar perceived as a global safe haven? And I would say there is essentially two reasons. One is the US government is just extremely strong and

historically over the last couple centuries. Extremely stable. So that's good. And then the other is that the US is this incredibly still productive economy that makes all kinds of things that are bought and sold in

dollars. And so that was both two pretty good reasons to hold dollars. And I don't think like, you know, the US economy is still going to be a productive one.

“I think for a long time, but there are reasons to think that like that”

this is getting chipped away the edges. The fact that the civil aviation system in the United States continues to deteriorate. These terrible lines that we see at airport, etc. The awful crash last night at LaGuardia, etc.

All of these reasons to think that the US economy, the crash between the plane and the fire truck on the tarmac, of course. Yeah. All of these reasons to think that things are becoming a little bit unglue here.

Here's a complex system, the civil aviation system. And it's breaking down in and of itself, just directly relate to the dollar. I mean, not necessarily. But what does it tell you?

It tells you that the great productive engine of the US system, the private sector or the public sector sort of working in concert to make this very complicated machine work as breaking down. And so I think over the long term.

Like, though, that's the type of thing that really worries me. I mean, does that matter as like a question vis-a-vis

Yeah, I think it does.

“Because I mean, I think I would people look at China right now,”

what they see is an economy that has extraordinary

productive capacity. That if you hold the Chinese yuan, if you hold the Chinese currency, either problem is buy anything you want in the world right now. This is the interesting thing. There are very few things that an individual could want to buy

that aren't made or aren't for sale that aren't for sale for China. And so I think, like, for in the long term, I think there's probably very good reason to think that the Chinese yuan will have safe haven properties. Now, like, does this happen overnight?

No, there's no way. These are a deep network of facts. And even for all of the anxiety that people have about American politics and so forth, these things are really hard to turn. But like, the long term trends.

Yeah, I'm both the political stability front and also

the productive capacity front. I do think there are probably reasons to think that the dollar won't be the only game in town forever.

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Started on test noch heute für nur einen Euro pro monat. Of Shopify.de/recorder. Just geopolitically. You talked about how the Gulf states right now are experiencing a GDP catastrophe.

Your last episode is about the people playing from the Dubai. Also Russia is benefiting from this financial ace. So maybe talk just briefly on those two topics. Yeah. I mean, it's interesting when you think about energy.

There are a lot of oil countries right now where the price of what they sell has shot to the moon. But there is no way for them to ship it and volume. Right? And so that's a really big problem.

Or that's really not great. And so typically you speak these economies, particularly the Gulf economies. And they're in a very strange situation. It's almost unimaginable if you think about it.

That there could be this condition, which the primary export product that they have is surging in price. And yet everyone expects their economies to slide. Russia is in this position where. The price of it to main export oil is surging.

For reasons that we all know. There are no constraints geographically on its ability to sell it. And there aren't really any constraint politically on its ability to sell its oil. And the logic from the White House is pretty sound, which is that.

You know, like I get under that basically.

This is not the time to be further constructing the world supply of oil. That the surging price of oil is damaging to the US economy. It's damaging to all kinds of economies.

“And if you want to mell you're right the damage.”

You can't be punishing the transaction of the any oil that's available. And that's why, of course, we've removed the sanctions on Iranian oil. And I people find it perverse, but I find it pretty intuitive. Which is that, you know, like. Dollars will only help so much.

So Iran will get money for selling oil. In this war, I imagine that dollars will only help Iran marginally. But the world will benefit from having Iran in oil. And not having the shortage be quite so acute. So I get the logic basically of not sanctioning an oil.

And if there's oil that is best in sight of it's on the water. And someone wants to buy it. They're not going to slap them with secondary sanctions. But yes, we're at a very strange distribution moment where the winners from surging oil are not. Obviously the intuitive winners that would normally think what they think higher oil prices.

I mean, we're so early. So, you know, maybe this resolves itself. If it's quickly because it goes on for a while. Dubai, Abu Dhabi Delha, you know, losing their economic power has huge ripple effects. Unlike a bunch of other industries, too.

I mean, like they're backing a lot of people's debt. You know, they're investing a lot of the data centers. Like what's your sense on all that? Completely correct. I mean, over the last decade, they agreed to which the major sort of sovereign wealth.

These pools of capital in the Gulf have been. The investor of last resort into almost anything over the last several years. The data center, AI economy probably is hard to overstate the influence that they've built up. And so if you start to see some of the reverse, my gut. And again, what do I know?

My gut is that it is probably too early to declare this trend over. I mean, I do think this is like one of the big macro trends of our time. Particularly, you know, some of the US, but a lot in Europe,

all of your high net worth, affluent households. Two of these countries that market themselves is delivering two things. Low taxes and safety, which a lot of people feel like they're not getting. And a lot of, particularly parts of the Western world these days. This is one of the huge, I think it'll take time.

It would take time.

The situation of taking a hit to the second one.

And then it's taking a hit. A missile's not hitting your apartment complex in London.

“And the truth is we don't know the full extent to the damage.”

And I do is I think I saw a post from one of the Abu Dhabi authorities talking about, like they're trying to control the flow of information that's coming out. So the degree to it. I mean, if you go to Instagram and you look at, you know, pictures from Dubai, it looks the same as the pride did about a month ago.

I think it's information of like how bad it is. I do not think we have great visibility into it right now. But yeah, I do not think it leaped for the time being. I don't think the direction is in and bound in terms of the people in capital. And now I had a friend who was telling me that they had a family member who lived there.

And it's like a horse about how to go. Yeah, it's like a 12 hour black car to Saudi Arabia.

And then you fly the Jordan.

And then. Anyway, the other products I mentioned at the top of the urio. It's part of the fertilizer, one of my buddies was talking about helium. Concerned. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. And the cool thing. He made him up his head coming out. Oh, great.

I was going to assign that to you. He started talking to me about that. And I was like, there hasn't been an odd lots on helium yet. So anyway, do you know that? I mean, from what I might early research, I feel bad for the helium dealers.

Because it's probably this very important industrial commodity, particularly in semiconductors and a few other things. And evidently, it's just like people think it's the balloon and the funny voice. Elements. Right.

But it actually apparently is pretty serious. There are not many places where it exists originally in the world.

“But I believe, you know, the golf was one of them.”

There's no obvious substitute for it for what I understand. It's not a huge market. Someone I was so into recently said it's like a six billion dollar global market. So you have this sort of weird thing. It's the same with the rare earth metals, which are not particularly big markets.

But there's part of the problem is that because of the dollar value is not particular high.

You don't get a ton of investment into helium mines and so forth. You know, you're not probably not going to become a billion a helium billionaire. Maybe. I don't know. But these are niche markets that are crucial in certain industrial applications

to not have many easy substitutes and so forth. And so yeah, you get this situation in which a big part of the supply has been taken off. The market and I don't know. I don't know. I think it hasn't hit yet.

I mean, on the fertilizer side, it is hitting right now because it's planting season. I mean, even one of the Republican centers Jim Justice from West Virginia was asked about this yesterday. And it was basically like, yeah, the farmers are getting hit hard. That's kind of what happens. Yeah.

So well response from the republic. And that's going to hit to flew. That's definitely. That's a good chart today from one of the banks that there's a pretty tight historical link between fertilizer inflation and food inflation.

And so yeah, that's definitely. It's definitely going to hit.

“And, you know, I think as these things come pound, one of the things that we really learned in COVID is that the global economy is sort of a.”

It's a finely tuned machine. But you start knocking it around and suddenly you have huge blood to appear here and huge shortages appear here. And certain industrial processes just don't happen. And nothing is really broken yet. But especially given the links to semi-conductors, given the stakes of the semi-conductor economy to AI and so forth.

I think you've got to be on the lookout for like one of these headlines that pops up. But if, you know, a major manufacturer says it's going to have to reduce its output by expersent. The market is going to it's going to give a joke. It'll be yet another joke to the market. And that's Joe Wyzenthall.

The stalwart on X. I appreciate your time. Go check out Adelaide. So we'll be talking to you soon. Alright, brother. Anytime. Alright, thanks to Jeffrey Goldberg and Joe Wyzenthall. Appreciate you all so much.

We'll see you back here tomorrow for another double header. See you all then. Peace. The board podcast is brought to you. Thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Ansley Skipper and with video editing by Katie Lutz and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.