Mike Murphy: The Sh*t Is Sticking to Trump

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Hello, welcome to the lower podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller. Delighted to welcome back to the show. Betron political strategist is campaigns. Including McCain, Ronny Schwarzenegger and Joe.

He's the co-host of Hacks on Tap. Co-director of the Center for the Political Future at USC. He also runs the American EV jobs alliance. We're in California, so I'm bringing in my Murphy. What's up, Murphy?

Hey, good to be here, Tim. At last night's live show. We've run out a bunch of live content creators and commentators. You're John Favros, you're Jane Coastans, you're Van Lathens, you're Brian Talico. It's like a storm here and now you can't avoid them.

They're everywhere, honestly.

“People need kind of like some raid to keep them away.”

But I subjected them to a never trump or trivia, which had like deep cuts.

Questions about Mitt Romney who did Dick Cheney shoot. You know, all that kind of material. And you would have dominated. It was embarrassing performance by that last night. So we need to start up a school to properly educate the Youngens here.

We do. All right. We've got much to get to. Part of the reason I wanted to have you were here in California. There's a lot of California politics, so we'll get to that.

Sure. First, we have some good news. So I'd like to start with some good news. Modest good news. You know, if we take it where we can get it.

We're seeing some Republican Hill pushback.

We are in our fund and over a couple of different things.

And the reconciliation bill has been derailed. Everybody from, you know, the retiring Tom Tillis over to Tommy Tuperville. They aren't thrilled. Todd Blanche went over to the Senate to try to win people over to try to bribe them. Saying, hey, even some of you senators might be able to get some money from this fund.

And it doesn't seem like it's taking. And that's, that's meaningful, I think. What about you? I agree. I mean, it's kind of an interesting mixture. And one hand, this, this bill.

Hey, let's, let's have a cop as salt pay all the fund. Is so odious and horrible that even the, Gumby-like flexibility of the modern Republican elected federal officials. It's like more bending than even they can do. But Trump's also got what I call the rotary revolt going on,

which is the Senate is a combination of rotary club and nursing home. And they're, you know, they're, they're their own thing. And they like corn it. And what they liked even more was having some hope they can hang on to majority, which by rights and by the nature of the states that are up this year.

They should be able to, but this Democratic killed Trump way, which is now a national Democrats and independence, and even some Republicans punish Trump wave is threatening this Senate. And so the one they felt pretty good about Texas, Trump pops up and endorses the biggest loser in the history

of Republican Party, this corrupt, past and guy, killing their friend corn in. So there, there's just good old institutional slash personal rage going on. Yeah. And they're looking for ways to punish him.

And this odious pay all the thing and the blimp hanger, too. That's wobbling. And then he's got the revenge caucus, which are people who screwed with who lost primaries or could have lost primaries. You know, obviously Cassidy and Louisiana got tell us.

And then you've got Susan Collins who's trying to figure out the tango to survive. So all of a sudden his grip in the Senate is a lot weaker and they're acting up. God bless some little late, but I'll take it. You know, it's like a nursing room cafeteria vibe.

“You know, I say life is all high school cafeteria and nursing room cafeteria is not that different”

from high school cafeteria so I understood for my Mimi. And that's what you got happening here. Like they're nice. You know, you can't sit with us. Yeah.

There is a little bit of that right now post-Cornin. And I do think it's funny. Like the retribution campaign is, we don't know overstayed all this. But like it is backfiring somewhat.

Like they were all bragging. His staff talking about don't mess with Trump. You know, he's the greatest political winner ever. And yeah, it's true, Bill Castley lost. And they managed to speak out of, you know,

not overwhelming victory against Thomas Massey. He got 45% to Kentucky. And so it's, yeah, that was true. And Cornin, you know, they pulled the rug out from under him. But like to what end?

Well, yeah, there's also, you know,

Because filing deadlines are passing quickly.

“So like you take, and he's one of my favorites.”

And I'm a donor, Brian Frith Patrick in the Philly suburbs. Who's a great member of Congress. He, I don't know about great. But okay. We can agree to disagree.

We're going to grade that. Pass up on a pass of murder of Congress. Due to the current realities. I hear you. But anyway, so if it's Patrick, you know,

Pennsylvania primary is over. So they have more maneuvering room to go screw with Trump. So the sands are shifting. And the other thing is, you know, I don't know if it's Patrick worth noting.

Trump went after his wife. He's a fox in his reporter. The other day I was doing his sexists, you know, I'm just going to really shit talk the woman reporter in the gaggle thing. And so again, to the nursing room cafeteria thing,

I mean, he's younger. Yeah. But there is like a little bit of that. Like he's mismanaging people that he needs with these narrow majorities.

Right. And if you, you know, action here. You asked the senators what's the president's job? It's to help us get reelected and hold the majority. And Trump is doing the opposite.

I mean, this current thing really was, you know, nutty old man shoots. And basically gives the Democrats a good shot. It would could be the tipping point race for control the Senate. And they're just flabbergasted and infuriated by that.

But, you know, you get into business with a crazy guy. The other thing about Trump, you know, I was reading today on the wire somewhere that the design you can tell I'm a jurist at consultant. Better check the wire.

You know, but I was. Do you have a wire on the wire? Do you got the wire? Do you got the wire? Yeah, I got your ticker here.

It's funny because I'm a nerd. I built my first computer with a soldering iron with a kid Bill Gates sold me. So, but anyway, not to go with skew on that.

The, uh, there's always talk about Trump's birthday.

You know, he's going to turn 80. He's already 80. The birthday is the last day of that year. You know, like you're a one year old. You've been one for a year.

He's been 80 for a year. We're going in 81 now. The beginning of 81. And the crazy old man's stuff is really out there and becoming a thing.

Yeah. Last element to this, kind of this, you know, sort of swirling. Number of incentives that are starting to move away from him. You know, in addition to his own behavior and the, and the cafeteria vibes and in addition to the filing

deadlines passing is the approval rating. You know, Sarah has, has coined the bush line. I, I hate it because it's a little gross and it's mean to the bush is but okay, whatever it is, what it is, bush left at 32%. And it's one of those things.

Like, eventually you hit a line where the number starts to get so low that the incentives for these Republicans start to change a little bit. Like, it's not going to happen overnight, but where they all have gone for the thing where it's like, I can't buck him. Because it's too, you know, the basis with him too much.

All of a sudden, you know, if you look at him at 34, you look at Massey, only getting 55 against him. You start to think it's, it goes from like, oh, I'm going running against, you know, Bosch or Assad to, I'm, I can maybe get some distance from this and not worried

that I'm going to get taken out back. Yeah, no, no, you start calculating. You know, the staff comes in, hey, boss, you know, we're, we're in reelection here. And next week, Trump's going to be down at the Omni-Done,

you know, doing a cage fighting tractor pole thing dedicated to, you know, him, you know, and the, the senators will go from, well, you got to get me there when he arrives. I want the picture now.

“It's like, I think I'm going to have a dental emergency that.”

I don't know where. Maybe go hit a suburban PTA unannounced and show up and care. Yeah. Because Trump said about his own son's wedding yesterday. Yeah.

So he's going to be attending Dungeon Your Second Wedding. He's like, oh,

you know, we got this thing in Iran going on. And I don't know. I'm sure. I trust my suit. The thought bubble was won't last, not worth it.

Yeah. Yeah. So it, it look, they, they smell the trouble coming. It's not hard. They've been looking at lousy poles, even people in safe seats for a year

that have just gotten worse. And Trump's gotten more radic. So they're just kind of buckling down for heavy weather. And trying to figure out how to survive. And hanging out with him is not as good of a survival strategy.

You know, with air is a great poster. I think a lot of people ask it now. I believe he was the first apologies if I get this wrong. But would ask people on the ID question and a poll or, you know, you'll be a Republican self reported.

And then he'd have a follow up.

“Are you more of a Trump Republican or more of a party Republican?”

And that number moves when Trump is screwing up. He goes under 50 on the number of Republicans. And when he's doing well, it'll push up close to 70. And after he lost a Biden, it was down, I think, in the, the 40s. So, you know, the, the, the, the glue is stretchy there.

And we're, we're heading the other way on that scale.

But I'm sure it's declined. One last factor is part of all this.

“I want to, I want to, I want to mention.”

There's going to be a good deal of talk about democratic dysfunction at the end of this podcast. So, no questions about that. There's certainly, let's say, some leadership issues on the democratic side, which we'll get into. That's that.

We just have to say it.

The DHS shutdown fight worked like the second shutdown fight that the Democrats

heard and the notion that we're going to separate out ice and CBP from the rest of the funding bill. There was a lot of criticism about that. On the left, people criticized it. It wasn't aggressive enough or, you know, they folded too quickly. You know, all, there's all the right, you know,

notering neighbors on the left who complaining about everything. Schumer and Jeffrey's do. Okay. Guess what? It worked.

The Schumer Jeffrey's plan. It was all going to work. It was all going to work.

“And they have this leverage right now to block the funding for the, for the ball room.”

And, you know, for this slush fund, the reason they have leverage is because Trump needs something from them, which is funding for ice and CBP.

They finally found out that when there's a pain fest in Washington,

ultimately it goes to the incumbent president's party because they're perceived as being in charge. So the pain does it takes a zigzaggy route, but it'll get there. They did, you know, the idea of federal employees missing a paycheck was so horrifying to them. Because the party is kind of a creature public employee unions. They just couldn't get there, but they finally did and you're totally right.

It worked. It was the other thing about when you said before about his numbers going down. There's, there's kind of a velcro effect. When you start getting down to the 40% let alone 30s in approval, then everything's your fault because, you know, people already sold that you're a screw up.

Two thirds of country thinks you're not good at your job. Then hey, you know, we had five days of thunderstorms at the end of Trump. You know, it just becomes easier for all the bad shit to stick to you. And that's where he is now.

“So they can do stuff like that and it is going to resonate.”

As long as they keep some kind of offensive message is what they're not good at. You know, you know this, you're a communicator and you've had a career in the communication side of politics. They just, they overthink they still are incredibly attuned. The leadership of the party to their interest groups. You know, they just, they're not good at pounding the nail per verbally.

Maybe they're learning. And they don't have to be good to win. You know, they can suck and still be Trump because the election is not a two-way election. It's a punish the guy who screwed up the economy election. Yeah, and Trump's how it continues to help them.

So just two items on the weaponization fund here is this morning. I gave up a lot of money in allowing the anti-weaponization fund to go forward. I could have settled my case. The illegal release of the tax returns in the break of Mara Logo for an absolute fortune. Instead, I'm helping others who are badly abused by the Biden administration.

So he's not backing down at all. And then there's the stock trade story which came out. My colleague Joe Pertico. I'm shout out to him, you know, for doing the math on this.

The total value of Trump's transactions in the first three months of this year, 750 million,

is higher than the value of all trades by all 535 members of the House and Senate combined for the last few years. I'm like, that is the scale of this. And so, you know, on the one hand, there's just like the corruption outrage on the merits. On the other hand, he's handing these guys the bat to hit him with. It's incredibly gross.

The stock trading thing. It just shows that the one thing the founding fathers, you know, well, foreign invasion kings, you know, we're getting front of everything. We're designing a system. They presumed honor in the shame. And now we have this circus freak with no honor and no shame.

Uh, running wild. You know, the funny thing about Trump and money is until he started using the presidency as a grifting and stealing tool for the family, which is, you know, unprecedented. I have long for the days of Don Nixon and the Nixon burger being a scandal. He would have been wealthier.

Had he taken the inheritance because he made his money the old fashioned way. He inherited it from Fred is dead. And if he put it into an index fund, it had nothing to do with it. He would have been richer. You know, he bungled his casino companies.

That's one business failure after another, just some luck and real estate appreciation. But until he became a federal pirate, he would have done better with an index fund and him having nothing to do with it. So I'd love to see the trades in terms of how they work out. My guess is, you know, they, they are not a droid.

In fact, he seems like a serial trader, which is a good way to lose money in the market. But to your point, it's massively corrupt. I'm unprecedented, though I'm hoping for the future.

And we're going to have more people imitating him in politics.

“Man, we have a Nixon's younger brother and spirit lagney reference already 15 minutes in.”

And we're really putting people in the grave. Yeah, and I do think in the specifics of the Trump trades, you know, some of them. It is kind of funny. One of the ones I laughed about is that seemed like he was trying to invest in some AI company. But that was from Japan.

But he accidentally invested in a business that is one of those sushi restaurant chains where the sushi goes around on a boat. So that one made me laugh. But he also, some of the ones that are just blatantly corrupt, like, you know, the investing in intel before announcing. Oh, we'll talk to you all in the other side. Yeah, yeah.

And he's trying to give himself in this tax deal all kinds of get out of jail free cards for past behavior. You know, making him possible audit him and everything. Yeah, I mean, it is how component would say to gross, come on, pull it back a little. This is embarrassing. There are lots of weight loss trends out there fasting.

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It's one of those things where you never have to hand it to the Trump administration.

But you almost have to hand it to them and maybe this will inspire some creativity on the left in the future. When you look at the ways in which they're doing some of this shit with the arch you see the story. Administration official cited a 1924 report by Federal Commission charged with designing the Arlington Memorial Bridge. The report called for building a pair of 166 foot tall columns surrounded by statues. I don't know if this is AI or if they have like one autistic guy in the bowels of the White House or whatever that is doing this shit.

But obviously again, it's another one of the things that it's corrupt, but it's corrupt creativity. Amanda called the yesterday authoritarian entrepreneurship. And there is a little bit of that happening. Yeah, I'm sure they brought in some awkward genius from the basement and said find me justifications. So somebody probably wondered why they busted their ass at, you know, the Notre Dame Law or whatever.

It's been a year looking because they know the boss wants to build crazy shit, so find the crazy shit justification. So yeah, it's creative. I hope these people look in the mirror once a while and say, wow, I'm using my legal and elect in the service of a madman to put a scar and a blimp hanger on the White House grounds. How are you at on a Democrat wins in 2029 and what to do with the ballroom and the arch just to get built by that or let's or even if they're half built, you know, what's how do you think.

Oh, I'm I'm Mr. Bulldozer if I was if I were running a candidate in the Democratic primaries part of my stick would be, you know, and donate to the campaign 50 bucks. We're going to hold a drawing. I'm going to pick 100 people day after my inauguration. We're going to walk over there of golden sled jammers and begin to take that light of gross. Corruption off the sacred grounds of the White House to people's house. That's got it. Yeah, yeah, no, no, I'd be I'd make it a thing. It was like a pep. You can't have had a great old stump closer in the primaries 92 and 95 in his speech. I was a Iowa event and this kind of big outdoor shed and the thunder was so loud from the crowd.

I started to worry that the roof was coming down like a couple of bolts fell and the big line was first he went after the Chinese. I'll tell that Chinese president Mr. you know, Paul sheeping that if he doesn't stop the forest abortion of a thousand babies a day in China.

On the inauguration day, if you honor me with this office and at that point as president of states, I will turn to William Jefferson Clinton and say you sir are under arrest, you know, the place with explode. He had Mr. Graham for arresting a lot that he had he was ahead on the locker. Oh, he was ahead on all that stuff. The other great line was on some in their hamster gun control balder dash. I'm against controlling any gun. You do not need a trailer hitch to move.

“So, but the point being, I would have a line like that on getting rid of this. You don't get to use the same exact line about arresting Trump.”

That's awesome. There you are, John, whatever. Absolutely. Gavin. But no, that thing is got to go. I would sell sledge hammers on the campaign.

I guess I should have predicted that you would go that route. But I don't know. Sometimes you can be a squish. You know, at heart you're a little bit of a squish. I am a right way in my friend. You have no idea. So, yeah, no, I'd be, that thing is a symbol and it's got now. If they really have a half billion dollar underground bowling alley and tanning bed factory and we're to health else Trump, you know, pat it the budget with you can keep the basement, but the buildings got to go.

Yeah. Okay. That's good. I don't know. And the Kennedy school is center thing too. Yeah, to chip that off. Yeah, part of being on the ballroom. You just wonder if you had anywhere you want that.

You just gave it a really compelling pitch and I'm kind of vacillating back and forth. Maybe I was projecting since I'm the inner squish part of me is just like, I think you just name it the Liz Cheney and George Floyd memorial ballroom and like, you know, put their faces on there and or, you know, whoever's going to annoy and the most bulldoze it. But I'm like, Clementsville, bury me standing up facing Germany. I have absolutely no flex in the board.

I do think that, you know, going back and and rewatching some pat you can and speeches might do some of the Democrats some good going ahead to 2028.

I mean, you know, in the Republican party, we're brought up with one rule when it's a confusing situation. Grab the sharpest object and attack. Yeah, right. They call the shrink, clutch the pearls, hold the focus group, bring in the interest groups decide the staff is indeed eye enough and flip everybody around.

“I mean, that's why they're so easy to beat every time we get in the corner in the old days, we get drag them into a culture war and they just scamper right into the mouse trap.”

Now, the cheese. A new kind of reaction to the crisis of the crisis of the crisis of the crisis. Well, speaking of committees and lawful ink and being concerned, you've transitioned as nicely into the DNA. Which was, I guess, released yesterday kind of. It was essentially released as like, if you know, if anybody has worked on a big project with multiple people, you know, you have a Google Doc that you've started and then maybe you have a couple of editors in there, collaborators and they're like writing comments and like that and they just kind of released the document like that like they hadn't even written a conclusion yet.

But Ken Martin had been so bullied by people into like what really happened with this thing and he lied about what happened and then waffles and then tried to say, well, we shouldn't put it. We're not going to put it out because it's hurting us and then, you know, the truth is that they put this thing out and it looked like it was put together by either a seventh grader who had never worked on a campaign or an 86 year old, his last campaign was, you know, the 88 do caucus race.

“Yeah. Look, the Dems are so hapless, the autopsy now needs an autopsy. I mean, it was such a perfect example. Now, how these things really work and you remember the Republican one is at the beginning.”

I was one of the authors that was making the comments and the notes. But you know, the two purposes, one, try to have a fact-based idea of the weaknesses for the political folks to chew over and spark it debate and second, throw something out to the finance crowd that we're now a bunch of idiots here and we recognize our shortcomings keep giving us money. And you know, these guys seem to be like, well, let's just throw a lot of shit on the wall and maybe magic will appear. And I put a lot of it, not only on Martin, but the way the DNC election works.

They had opportunities to go find somebody, like, I think Rama Mani would have been of terrific DNC chair because they, they'd all be carrying sharp sticks and heading in one direction.

And that decent state chairman hope you're lucky if a third of the time it comes true.

“Often it's like the model railroad club. It just happens to be politics and they're fighting over who got the head table and whether or not my friend's bank would got the whole debunkter, the year dinner.”

And all this worship that's actually a distraction. So it's an illusion that they're all these cigar-champing pros. You know, and I've seen part the Michigan State party used to be Patton's third army. Now, now you put a tent over it and call it a circus. You could charge admission. You know, Florida's nothing like what it used to be. So the constituency and both sides, but with a white house you can order a moron on the Democrat side and the wilderness, they elect one of their own chuckleheads who's best at giving out rhinestone donkeys to, you know, 80 year old committee women.

And so they get somebody who has a political job, but limited political skills outside the micro politics of Democrat inside.

“The left-handed people caucus at least 40%. You know, all the crazy shit they do. So it's no surprise that they've got this train wreck internally and there's no discipline to it.”

Obviously, it's one of those like not funny ha-ha, funny sad situations, but like the funny part about it is the discourse around the DNC, like you said, all this cigar-champing or, you know, to update it, that's all, you know, these machinations happening behind the scenes with the corporate elite that on the party, et cetera. And it's like the theory of the case that you're seeing online or one of the things that was out there about why the autopsy didn't get released was that, you know, it revealed that Kamula Harris position on Gaza really harmed her.

And like this, and there's an axios story about this, where people said that they blocked the release because, you know, the powers that be, don't want you to know that it was her position on Gaza, the cost of the campaign. Great way to have everybody know. It's a great band in Boston. Don't read it. Yeah, and then it comes out and it's like, Gaza's even mentioned in the thing. Yeah, but I didn't age isn't mentioned in it. Like all of the obvious things aren't mentioned. And so I, what is a better encapsulation of like all the discourse around the DNC is that everybody on the internet, you know, thinks that they're scheming to hurt their candidato choice at like when the reality is that they're eating the crayons and like that.

And like that, this was true. This is actually like 10 years now. It's one of my favorite rules of politics that every side has a conspiracy.

You know, it's like when Trump sat down with Romney after the election and Romney is writing crazy in the gravy with the foreclistine of going about, you know, it works. They stole new hamster because they brought up the hoards from Massachusetts. You know, labor has this big army of 7,000 gorillas that can deploy anywhere in, you know, the Republicans all paranoid about that.

“And then over on the labor side, they're like, oh, the coke brothers, you know, we got eight drugs here. We don't have anybody for door to door. It's all a myth. But they've got this secret Republicaner.”

Everybody thinks these places are massively competent with ruthless armies and most of the time, they're just stumbling along in this day party world. What do you think, I mean, the DNC doesn't really matter that much. And it matters somewhat on the fundraising side and like that's where Ken Martin is really failing. And so, you know, those guys over there at the committee are circling the wagons today. And I feel kind of bad for the press flunkies that are calling all my friends in the media just trying to spin them nonsense. So it's kind of how I got refrigerator magnets.

They're coming. Yeah, so guys remember one of the Biden guys calling me. I remember just simply being at the Atlanta airport after that first debate and having one of the guys call me and being like, you're being a little harsh on Twitter. And I was like, you hang up the phone right now. I've been one of you. Okay. I know I've found diarrhea into a into a chocolate cake before and it's not going to work with me. But they were all doing that yesterday at the DNC and parties like they should just have a clean break, right?

Just move on. I just find some brings somebody in the can raise money and can go on TV and talk about how Donald Trump is a thief. Yeah, call it good. Right. No, they need some gorillas. The promise aren't many left in that party because the internal incentives. You know, the other thing and this is a delicate topic. But the DEI stuff is so strong internally. I know really good democratic consultants who've been out there. And most of them are telling me, hey, I'm 58 white male. I've done. You know, they tell me to shut the fuck up in every meeting. So this is my last cycle because it's just it's a different world. I mean, the DEI trip chairman was bragging about they.

They don't have enough firms where they they pick them based on their gene code, not their win loss record. And you know, it's admirable to have aspirations like that. I don't want to sound like caught in matter.

So, you know, I'm not saying there's a great example there. I know more self hating Republican consultants, I'll bet you do too.

“I mean, like, I got a mortgage, so I'm going to be a fascist for 10 years. They don't call me anymore because I make them feel too bad. Actually, I had a lot of those for a while, but now.”

Now, my list is doing the laying up tell you. Yeah, I make them, I make them feel too guilty about their summer vacation when they call me. So I don't get the the phone isn't ringing as much anymore, but there's an interesting thing happening actually in the democratic side now that you mentioned this.

It's happening a little bit underneath the surface. It's strange. It's like the establishment.

And I'm saying this, like, not really in an ideological sense, but just like the people that are that run the committees that are in Washington, kind of regular, you know, democratic functionaries are really still kind of caught up in a lot of this. The woke stuff that you're talking about. And you're seeing these two factions on different sides. You have kind of the platinum populist crowd. And then you have this kind of, you know, their condom cells like majority dams or the bench, like the Telereco campaign is is on there is a bit of a bunch of house candidates. You can you can search the bench for their candidates and they they they're a little bit more ideological diverse, but they tend to be more in the middle.

But both like running these primaries, Michigan is a good example of this, right? It's like Mallory McMorrow. It's kind of the bench candidate. I do all say he is a little bit more of the platinum or style candidate. And then Haley Steven says is, you know, the establishment candidate. And it's like the establishment candidates are the ones that are still kind of doing the identity politics stuff. You know, it's it isn't you're seeing a little bit of a change, I guess, from the in front from internally where where there is like a group of lefties that want to win very badly.

And then there's kind of some fighting mods that want to win badly that are changing the culture a little bit. It's just happening. So it's just not happening in the DNC, you know what I mean? It wasn't happening at the Harris campaign. Yeah, well, there'll be the last to know, particularly the D trip because they were like a democratic caucus, you know, goes back to the 70s and like as it's been reduced to some extent, it's going to grow now. It's got a lot of people kind of frozen in time from very safe districts. But yeah, no, no, the splinters are starting. It's generational to, you know, when I was an active political consultant because I really don't do races anymore. I the dabble once a while independent expenditure.

Or of course, referendum campaigns, all that. But I was very careful about hiring anybody out of DC because you would just get NRCC conventional wisdom and they're great people there. But I always want to find a sharp kid out of a state capital where there's a real fight.

“Because often they didn't have kind of the Beltway mentality, which faction I belong to and which firm do I want to wind up at. And I think both parties have plenty of that now effect is worse.”

I do sort stuff out like Michigan will be a good example. We're seeing who actually wins because he's Abdul is I know him. He's capable and I think Mallory is capable. I think Hayley is not that capable. The dynamics of the race really want her out and let those two opposites decide the question with the primary voters. We're seeing what happens. And Doug and got out, which I'm sad about too. I like them. Yeah, I do feel obligated to just do the, like there's good DEI and there's bad DEI and to give the defense of good DVI right now, which is we just had the, you know, that picture of the Trump administration and the by-law with China.

And where they're like 24 white dudes around the table and market. I guess unless you're counting Marko, you know, it's like it's like what we got our gay here with Besson down at the end.

That's like exactly. And it was, you know, it's like, wow.

“What I like to do is none of the Americans were pros and Asia who could speak Chinese. You know, used to be at a very low full of them. I think Trump had three guys locked in the basement. Nobody ever got to talk to you.”

They would have multiple reality TV stars and we can talk to host those. So that's good. Yeah. The facts green room is where you really get the geopolitical geniuses of today. And they'll matter next. They're putting out the makeup and the, uh, they're here. It's definitely a merit-based system. They're working on over there. I guess we just, because we're mentioning Michigan, what is just give me your Murphy handicaping of the Senate right now. What's your sense of the, of the state of play, what, what state. So you watching.

The minority has no power. You're, you know, free haircuts and hang around. I mean, you can make speeches, but you have no power. In the Senate, of course, minority has power.

So people are kind of obsessed at making the Senate and the house like that. Good. Good. The Democrats win the Senate. The answer is maybe because it's a huge wave election.

But if the Senate goes from forward to two Republican advantage, that is still a massive earthquake power wise, because it'll be hard for the Republican leadership to control it anymore. You know, we're see who loses and who doesn't, but you're still going to have Rand Paul who goes to his own drummer and is honest about that.

“You got Markowski, you know, you got in Utah Curtis Curtis. He's checking out. I think he wants to run for governor in two years.”

Right. Right. And you're having the ashes of Trump with people thinking about our right. That's the old song. I'm going to pick up some new, new riffs here. So they barely can control it. They've had votes. They've needed vans to break the tie with four. So if it goes down to two or one, it is a whole new world. Now, in the good judges through, I know it's, I know it's still be meaningful though for them to be up one, just to for judges and for investigations. No doubt, but it's not like the house. You can be in the minority and be quite powerful and they're on the customer doing that.

So to actually win the thing or get it tied Alaska Republican state, but Dan Sullivan who knows better is one of these in trouble. He's probably six or seven down. I saw pull. Forget he's in the Senate kind of it's all. Yeah. And so he's Alaska because I don't think he's very visible when he's there. Maybe partially out of shame because he's not an idiot.

So that that's a loose end. Now you can argue it's Alaska and when it comes down to it, the party brand is powerful there and they're going to spend a fortune.

But that thing is definitely in play. I think Texas is now in play, which I don't think would have been in court and really in play, so that that is a big earthquake to the map. And then you've, then you've got the somewhat, you know, easier ones like Ohio where I think Brown will probably have his comeback is a old kind of union manufacturing jobs kind of Democrat, which is perfect for this year. Michigan, I think he's going to tilt to the D's though if Abdul wins the nomination will be more complicated, though he's an underrated candidate.

I know him is basically a high school quarterback from Dearborn with a complicated ballot name and some pretty lefty positions. But he, he, he, he, he's got some skills. Of course, Collins, you know, the thing about Plattener is how will the second look go? I mean, Mills getting out was not good for him.

“He needed to go beat somebody. Now it's all going to be, well, wait a minute, what about the Nazi tattoo?”

It's some, I heart, Auschwitz. What does it say? You know, I mean, it's not a subtle Nazi tattoo. It kind of is, I kind of, it kind of is. You knew it was a Nazi tattoo when you saw the Toten Cup. It's a skull. And it's not like it was a swastika. Well, the thing is the skull department where the SS guys who thought the swastika was a little too soft and squishy. So, if you were at a concentration camp and you looked at the uniform.

Yeah, sure, if you were at a concentration camp, anyway, anyway, okay. Point, point, yeah, you're flacking. I'm just, I'm saying that reality. I did not, I would not have looked out of that. And I would have thought, I'm a bad ass drunk, you know, whatever party you've got. I want to be cool.

Yeah, you know, this might be what happened, but it's a pretty, get, get David French going on.

“So, you know, you're an hour and a half on it.”

Yeah.

So, the point is, he's going to get our more of a second look now.

But, generically, I still think he's the favorite if you can withstand that. And Collins is not the Collins of past, by the way. I mean, she is, she's also, you know, getting up there. And it's, and then she's walking a delicate tightrope and doesn't have the same ballerina skills that she did two cycles ago. I agree, and they've seen the magic act.

They know the rabbit's going to come out of the bag of groceries. And he stretches, Iowa or Florida is, there was kind of, it's kind of a weird Florida pool. I didn't Florida could come to life, I really do. I really do. So, I don't count that one out.

I was trickier, but in the hunt now, which is saying something, of course, I got the superstar governor. The brass guy. The brass guy. That's what I do.

I ended up in Nebraska. Yeah. I was born that racist. Yeah. Look, even, I'm going to plug.

There's a young kid who is a Senator in Panthers. Two good candidates. That's actually, it's so funny. They're better. Just being blunt.

Sorry, you get my real opinions on the show. They're better than the Iowa candidates. Iowa's an easier state than the Kansas candidates are better. There's the young guy you're talking about.

Yeah, the pastor is interesting, but he's a pro-life Republican in a democratic crime.

“But maybe that's what we're talking about.”

At first, look, it's kind of the old, you know, the miracle candidate.

The primary motorcycle, Patrick Schmidt, the young guy's Navy. The moderate, Tory Dem. And he's got a poll showing it like a two-point race with Marshall. Who kind of is like Sullivan. Yeah.

The cook here. The Domer. Yeah. So if the Dems can, you know, raise the money, which has been an underperforming category.

And play wide in a way of election. Lightning can strike in one of these seats. So. Yeah.

If I had to handicap, I say they don't get majority.

But they closed it to two or one or tied. And it's not impossible to get majority, which is really saying something with the portfolio of seats that are up. I think tied is kind of the median.

“For me, it's so important for them to win for the investigations.”

Because there's so much shit to investigate. When we talk about yesterday audit the White House, you know, should be the motto for 2027. And, you know, the house can only do so much. There's just only so many hours of the day.

There's only so many committees. Anyway, to me, the oversight in the appointments. So they're, and then, you know, what if,

what if a Supreme Court just discusses away?

What if, what if, what if bland? They try to make bland permanent. And you know what I mean, like, for all those reasons. I think the Korean investigations are, are so much smarter to run on than impeachment.

You know, just say the vote was already impeached. And they wiped out his party.

“But let's look at all the corruption here.”

The family is rated the treasury. Here's the cheeset. A new manuscript has been cut into pieces. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. But there's still a lot of work to do.

There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do.

There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do.

There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do.

There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do.

There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do.

There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. There's still a lot of work to do. got far enough that in September, Congress Department officials were exploring what grounds could be evoked to execute at three additional sources said eventually collapse however because there wasn't any evidence. So, you know, this is whatever, you know, the watergate burglar style scheme here, but you know, I don't know, maybe one of the times they figure something out and I just want what is your kind of alarm about about monkey business and the midterms.

You know, I think it's the thing, Axarad and I argue about this unhacks on tap a lot because he's very pearl clutchy about it and then he accuses me of ignoring it and I know it's out there, but it's like a three-foot break wall against a twenty-foot wall of water. There's just limits to how much they can get away with. Are they going to try to do? Yes. Yeah, I mean, the biggest thing and he's on this and this one I don't disagree is they're doing a lot better rate isn't money. You know, now of course they use extortion, but the dams need to get their finance thing in order. They don't get to mention the extortion. I don't think there's it's interesting. There's not more reporting on this.

Like because, and for me, this is all smoke. I'm not an investigative reporter, but the number anecdotes I hear about things like people calling up Brian Ballard's lobbying firm, one of these lobbying firms and saying, Hey, you know, I'd like to hire you to help lobby the administration and in addition to the 50 grand a month or whatever it is for the firm. It's like for me to take you on as a client. You got to give maga pack over here a million bucks. That is happening right now. No, no. I mean, the thing is when you have a reputation for corruption and thuggery as the Trump administration does.

It's pretty easy to go out raise and money without any threatening because people just assume, you know, like, oh, God, these guys are, I'm going to have a regulatory case. It's all political. And, you know, the administration is trying to purge all the old mander in kind of public service types out wherever they can. So they know they got some 30 year old political appointee. It was a deputy advance. Nucle had on the Alabama campaign is now deciding, you know, who they turned the unlimited legal resources of the federal government loose on. So people are paying to play or paying to survive.

So just the knowledge that their thugs raises money by itself. So yeah, yeah, I, but the Dems auto on a grassroots basis because of the wave and low dollar low cost of transaction web based fundraising. They ought to be able to do better. And they, they just need to like get on that. They don't have to match the Republican number. My old joke is what hurts more dropping one piano in your head from a hundred feet or two pianos, but they got to get to one piano and they're not there yet.

California is not going well. I landed in San Diego for the live show. I walked out the door of the hotel across the street in downtown San Diego.

“There was a marquee. So it's like opening the doors again soon socially distance mask up stay safe.”

Yeah, you know, I went to sit at a juice bar. They do still have good fruit and juice here in California. A nice woman walked up to me recognized me said, hey, I introduced me to New Orleans real estate agent as two expensive for me to live here. Yeah, like people, it says two expensive live here. The state is, it's tough. They can't build the fucking train. They can't text us as building more green energy. Yeah, plants in California as Texas is. No, it takes the orders to open electric vehicle fast charging station here.

You know, it's crazy. And it's not going well. And we're in an election year. And the establishment of the California Democrats are putting up the same mayor here in LA that has been that has done a disastrous job rebuilding from the fires. And the, and the Yahoo's, they have lead in the governor's race. It's Biden's worst cabinet member. And, you know, the, the corny sky on the 2020 debate stage. Yeah, I, who, who nobody really is excited about. That is it. There's no reform. Yeah, you would think of it.

It's a beautiful economic engine of America could actually, well, this closure. I'm for Matt Mayhand, who of course is not doing.

I mean, they're doing well. It's simply because common sense and Silicon Valley guys who promise money and never write

“the jacket hard campaign for me later. Just before you give the pitch on this. Can I just offer? I think I want to just at least do one other thing because I'm obviously on for Mayhand too.”

But it's not just a couple of former Republican guys. This, I was just reading this morning. I was going down Twitter. This is on on the lefty side of the dam. Party Matt Stoler wrote this about the Sarah, who's the, who's a front writer. The Sarah's likely to become the California governor. He's arrogant and competent and tolerates criminal behavior by staff. I'll likely be recalled fairly soon. I agree with that. Susan Rice. I've had on the show multiple times who's in the main body of the Democratic party was retweeting.

Really negative reviews about this era. So it's like a cross the era. It's a, why is everyone going along with this?

Don't they have a department store mannequin they can run instead because beseries. You know, nobody trembles of that name. So here's what happened.

First of all, let me do Karen Bass who's quite unpopular mayor.

“But like a lot of places that are very blue. The public employee unions do like to elect the people to negotiate their salary deals with.”

And that, that is a function here. So at the last minute a young DSA super lefty, nithy arom and jumped in against her a political ally 48 hours before. And then Spencer Pratt because everybody's on one ballot with no party label, who's kind of the rage against. The situation candidate note no solutions, but he can explain how to get stabbed in the neck at an underpass, which is fairly easy to do here. If you, you know, drive quarter mile in any direction is kind of the novelty candidate although right now he and ramen are in a tight two way race around 20 each to try to make the run off against Bass who's stuck at like 39.

So yeah, it's kind of uninspiring my friend Rick Carruso became very close to running a lot of people wish he had. My fix for it is to do what San Francisco did, which is go to ranked choice get rid of the low turnout primary and widen the voter pool for all parties and let second and third choice means something. So frankly, the more right to center people can have a candidate who can compete with the lefty public employee thing. The governor's race same thing California so hard to govern and we got a lot of budget problems, some of which are driven by the Trump administration that.

There just wasn't a candidate so swall well because he lives on MSNBC had some name ID and this is a big state TV will cost you a four to five million a week.

So getting famous very expensive here if you're not already famous like Arnold my old client, you know, we came in as somebody people would listen to because they knew who he was. And then I was going to say, well, I'm going to go and upload it which everybody knew was coming and then the Sarah was kind of the generic acceptable Latino guy from the south. But nobody knew anything about him, but the public poll showed him in front and then the Sacramento crowd said, well, he's not going to change anything safe that poor money in.

And then he had stires going to spend 200 million bucks or probably more. I was like trying to put a sender block into orbit, you know, he's just not the most compelling candidate and then you had Katie trying to Katie Porter who would come in third for Senate trying to. She by the way, I like better than the other two. I'm just not exact. Yeah, and may have come in the center and neither of them couldn't really get the money they needed to break through and get famous in California.

The first thing that frustrates me is a lot of the Democrats I talked to here about this race even especially sophisticated Democrats actually like, well, what are you going to do.

“We don't want it to be a top two Republican situation, but that's not going to happen anymore.”

I was never going to happen and that's part of what.

So just go for you. People are just like, oh, I can't throw away my vote for Katie. I'd someone tell me that in San Diego yesterday, friend of mine. And then I'd somebody tell me that about me and today or yesterday and that way. And I'm like, it's not over.

The race isn't over. Oh, they, this spectrum of two Republicans, Steve Hilton and Sheriff Bianco, who's the handcuff candidate. Breaking through became a thing. And the psychology and the Democrat electorate of the half that really pay attention at most was, oh, my god, oh, my god whoever's in front and the polls, we have to vote for it. So the halfless Bessera kind of dooms to them, to do, you know, stumbled in with no money, no message, we present me, but you know, was the he had been known. He had been a attorney general and, you know, he had some name ID and they said we better vote for him to stop Republican.

And so it's stupid heard behavior, but it, but it happened. It's frustrating. Do better Democrats in California. It's like, you know, be a model, maybe a century. Yeah, yeah.

The last thing I'm looking at, you'd let you put on your, you know, kind of Monterel, getting out to the Monterel thing about EVs, which I like to let you do on the show. Particularly after this after the China summit. And we talked about this a little bit, I don't know, one of the reasons times you are on. And this relates to the California incompetence on us like the degree to which we're getting our ass beat by China in this space. It's hard to trump is the Henry Ford of the Chinese auto industry.

They should build a, the monument to him over there. I mean, he's declared war in the American one with the stupid terrorists and.

He, here's the bottom line, I need to use it.

Don't think about environment or any of that one. It's a better car. Take one for a weekend from your dealer. You're, you're thank me. And you're safe to now probably 2800 bucks a year on gas.

But the real deal is that Chinese decided to eat the world car industry to de-industrialize the company. They had the capacity to make 50 million cars a year. We, we would stretch to make 12. And so say union in a Chinese auto plant. You're going to be making license plates and you're making 10 bucks an hour.

So they export cheap good. We taught him how and the Germans did cars. And they go conquest foreign markets because they have more capacity than they can use. Nobody in the Chinese auto industry makes any money. The government just props everything up and like a thing they're invading everywhere.

So if you're curious of a Chinese car is any good, go to your Lincoln dealer and look at a nodless. That is made in China. They sold 75,000 of them last two years. And for the rather not do that, but terrorists and everything. And having to have, you know, hedged the future is kind of forced them to.

Most viewers now are made in Korea.

So the problem is, EVs are the better product they're going to win in the end.

We are still competitive as are the Europeans. But the Chinese of all their subsidies and their scale are eating the world. And the way to compete is to subsidize American manufacturing not just to try guys, but also the Germans and the Koreans who make great EVs in Georgia to let them export and let them compete. The Chinese are going to try to buy the market.

We've got to defend our guys for a few years in subsidies. And Trump has tried to kill every single thing that help American auto manufacturing compete. Every one of them. He ought to have a high heart BYD and Geely tattoo on his forehead. And now we don't know what he agreed to.

“You know, there's rumors he gave Taiwan away for a soybean deal, which I think he's capable of.”

And talking about the Chinese, why don't you build one assembly plan here? And I'll open the flood gates. And there are national security implications and everything. So go to EVs for all America.org. Learn all about it.

It's so funny. And it's like literally the cliche. And he's selling us out for a bunch of beans. Like literally beans. No, no.

Very cheap. Yeah. Yeah. It's really. I'm not going to from about this.

It is the tearoffs. It is, you know, the China policy. But also the way in which he's turning off our allies is also helping China to take the world. It's just like just the Canada example. Canada because, you know, they want to have a good trading relationship with us.

“It was not an important Chinese EVs, like up until recently.”

And you know, Trump and Trump talks and talks about making them the 50 first state and invading them and punishing them and making their economy worse. And there's like, well, screw it. Like, fine. We'll do a deal with China.

Let that BYD cars come in. The people in Ottawa will like those better than the cars that they're getting anyway. And teach the Chinese how to sell in the North American market.

I mean, here's my favorite terrorist toy.

“Subaru, one of the smaller manufacturers, but they make a good car, has a big plant and”

Lafayette Indiana. And they were sending, I don't remember the number. Maybe 25,000 cars a year from the US to Canada. If you buy a Subaru and Canada, most of them were made in Lafayette Indiana. The terrorist came down.

Well, that's gone. Now, it's cheaper for Subaru to ship them from Japan to Canada.

Because it Trump's trade war with Canada.

“So, if you're on the line and Lafayette Indiana, why are we cutting shifts back?”

Well, the orange menace is trying to inject anthrax into US auto manufacturing. And it's working pretty well. So, yeah, this is a huge thing. I'm happy that the Democrats are going to move Michigan up. It looks like into the big four presidential states.

Because that may put a little visibility on this.

“Because the two biggest states for EV CapEx are Georgia number one,”

Michigan number two in South Carolina is a big manufacturing state for automotive. So, we're going to have early states. How would ethanol in with EVs? Sorry. It's been fun while it lasted.

Farmers drive an EV. You will get hooked unless you're tolling a horse trailer. Then wait for an E-reven a year or two. All right.

That's Mike Murphy, man. I always appreciate the time.

Thanks so much for doing this. Thanks, pals. Good to see you every time. All right. Everybody else will be back here Monday with Bill Crystal. See y'all then. Peace. The board podcast is brought to you.

Thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Loots and audio engineering in editing by Jason Brown. of cheese at minus action day.