Sarah Longwell: No One Should Trust this Government

Hello and welcome to the Bullard Podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller.

Happy Dale, savings time finally.

I'm in my element. Okay, we have light at night and I appreciate that. We've kicked out Bill Crystal this Monday. He was getting a little too excited seeing Barbara Anne over the weekend. That's only a joke for people who are paying attention to politics in 2008.

It's not true. We really enjoyed the game. We have a guest for a different reason. She's the publisher of the Bullard, you know, or she's the host of the Focus Group Podcast.

The illegal news was Sarah Longwell. She's now the best selling author of a book. It isn't going to even be out till September. But she's a friend of the class person and wanted to do even better on the pre-sales. So she's here on this podcast.

You should pre-order it right now. Link is in the bio, how to eat an elephant, one voter at a time is the name of the book. It's Sarah Longwell. What is up?

“Hey, do you want to apologize to me for saying I definitely shouldn't write this book?”

I don't. Opposite.

And now I kind of feel like you want to get first on the New York Times list.

I got seconds behind Secretary of War, Pete Hegseff, and you want to be first, and that was really the main reason behind the book, and I think it was probably about me. Yeah, I was just going to say I know you think everything in the world is about you and competition with you, but actually I wrote it for the Bullwerke community, who, by the way, they ride so hard for us.

All I had to tell them was if I sold 20,000 copies, maybe I'd let JVL moderate a focus group and boom, they were all over it, can't thank them enough. I just got to sit this weekend on my birthday weekend and see my book become a bestseller on the strength of pre-orders from the board community. So thanks to all of you for doing that, I do want to be number one.

I am number one right now in all of the political categories just in front of Senator Kennedy, who has a book apparently. You watched the Amazon chart of Sarah going up to Wanking, so it's kind of like the gas prices chart. It was just like great.

It was just like the prices chart. Straight up.

The book is how to eat an elephant.

We'll talk about it at the end. About why.

“I mean, you should get it just because it's Sarah, and she's great, and you'll love it and”

doesn't matter what it's about, but we'll tell you more about why it matters. What's important about it at the end, but we have news to get to. We're in a war. We are. I guess we're going to spend a lot of time talking about that here at the top.

A couple of news items from the weekend. We had the seventh American killed an action as an army soldier in Saudi Arabia. They also noticed another marine infantryman in 19-year-old Kevin Mollandas died, but since I thought it was in the killed an action category, so we don't exactly know what happened with that.

Last night in the JBL jumped on a live stream. We can follow those on our subject or YouTube when we get riled up about something now we get on and talk about it live. This was about the oil prices skyrocketing. It reached a peak of close to $120 a barrel, and it's down to about 100 right now.

Sarah, I want to play for you a little audio. It's kind of contextualized that price per barrel, and then we can talk about that and the other implications for the war. Are you a watcher of land, man? Do you watch land, man?

I don't watch land, man. Although I probably should. I think it's a show for me. I just have to tell you. Okay.

“This is Billy Bob Thornton and his character Tommy Norris, who's an oil executive in Texas”

explaining to a young, do-eye lawyer, what the target oil price is and what the implications are. Let's listen. Well, you want a world of level above 60, but below 90. And don't get me wrong.

We're still printing money at 90, but gas gets up over 350 a gallon. It starts to pinch. It hits 100, every product in America has to readjust its price. Every product in America has to readjust its price. That doesn't sound good.

No, it's bad. It's also, the thing is, is that gas is just one of those things that every American notices. So, you know, the war feels far away to people, these Middle East wars, even with the loss of American life, you know, until you really start losing people by the thousands

and thousands, Americans have kind of a threshold for it. And what they don't have a threshold for, unfortunately, and I say, unfortunately, meaning one would hope that the loss of human life would outweigh, how one feels about the personal pinch. That's just not the way voters work.

It is like a big blazing billboard. People look at gas prices when they drive by the gas station. They see the cost of it, and they are constantly doing the mental adjustment for what that means for them. You know, if they're not super wealthy, like it just matters to everybody.

And so that is how they will interpret the war, and whether or not they are for against it, is like the personal consequences to them. And gas prices are such a specific personal consequence for people. Well, number one, the already saying, it looks like the most commonly encountered price for diesel, John from 369 a gallon to 499 a gallon this morning.

It's like a massive jump over the course of a week, and it's ever good sign for the economy

when you're starting to follow commodities analysts online, but if, you know, which is what I'm doing, you're starting to follow commodities. I'm doing this too. Like I'm following all different people all set in to be understanding it. But, you know, CNBC economics folks at Derek Thompson, we had on last Thursday was on this

Nate Silver, not exactly a, you know, kind of Trump for ancient syndrome, you know, left doing a politics like just neutral analysts looking at this and saying, it's going to get worse for you. It gets better. Like even if he texts tail, like sure, it'll probably better by summer, and so maybe

it wouldn't have an impact on the mid-terms, but, you know, we saw this in the fall up for COVID. There is like long tail reaction to all of this sort of thing. Like with the tear-ups, it was like, I could, you know, the stock market went down, and then he pulled Betty Taco and the stock market went back up.

Like this is not that. This is not that. You know, you and I are not economics analysts, so people should take this with a grain of salt, but you don't have to see. See plus.

I'm going to see plus in macro one-out one. Oh, did you? Okay, well, yeah. They literally invented a class called the History of Math for me, so they could get me through high school mathematics.

But even for people like us, we are able to see the downstream consequences of things like this. She bring up COVID, right? I remember years after the peak of COVID, Americans were still frustrated by supply chain issues that were continuing the higher issues, where, you know, they couldn't find people

to work in restaurants, these things they go on, and they still impact people. And this is the thing, it only in a weeks span of time.

Since this first happened, we can already see that this isn't going the way Trump wanted

it to.

“We are already deeper in than I think he thought.”

We would be to the extent he thought about it at all. It's not the kind of thing you could just get in and out of, and it is the kind of thing that voters notice. And back to the point, it's not just the gas, right? It's like, okay, so if diesel is at five bucks a gallon, what is that effect truckers?

It's a trucker's carry and food, right? And you know, plastics, like it's across the world, it's a lot of consumer products get affected by this. It's all the things that it impacts, but then also the other things that are already going on in the macro economy, like we were already seeing jobs number slow down.

We were already seeing inflation behind, like if we go into a stagnation period because of this, like it's not in a vacuum. Well, the good news is the attorney general said, we don't have to worry about any of the scandals or problems because the Dow Jones has hit 50,000, but oh wait a minute, I'm sorry, we're down to 46,000, 500 right now.

I was wondering this morning, at what point did the stock market trigger the rest of the Epstein files, according to Babbondick, right? That's a good question. How low do we have to go to get the rest of the Epstein files out? It's something to look at.

In just again, about the kind of lack of strategic planning here, and we're folks on the economic side that we get into the military side of it, last July, for example, Trump said that he was waiting for oil prices to get lower to fill up the strategic petroleum reserve. So that seems like a mistake.

“People might remember that Biden expended some of the strategic oil reserve, the last”

time when Russia invaded Ukraine, which is kind of legitimate use for this, you know, the Fox and Trump and the right wingers. And then a guy against him on it, but it's like, okay, well prices are going up, it's nothing, it didn't have anything to do with us, so it's this external shock of, you know, something happening with Putin, and that is not the case this time, we did it.

So, you know, if you knew that we were planning to go to war with Iran, one thing you could have done, or it was possible, you know, a couple months ago, when oil prices were lower, was refill that, but that didn't hit the checklist, I guess.

He's following whatever Netanyahu told him, I don't know how quickly this ultimately

happened, like obviously they were having conversations, you know, for a few weeks leading up to this, but it's not clear that it was, like, imminent. Like I think it's caught all of the American government off guard, which is why you just said, you open the podcast with where it war. Well, the administration's not saying, war Trump is saying, war at war, but the rest of

the administration isn't because to say where it war has an actual legal meaning, actual things like, you know, Mike Walls has to actually go to the UN and say to the French, you know, his French counterpart, like, yes, we're at war, or here's why we're doing the bombings, whatever. They haven't, they haven't reconciled any of that.

Like when he's on television, it's sort of like when Democrats are asked, what is a woman,

“that's the new question for Republicans is like, are we at war?”

Because they just sit there and don't say anything, because they don't really have an answer. Yeah. I was listening to the illegal news about this from this weekend about illegal implications from declaring war versus not one more thing, the Trump spin on the gas prices, I don't read you.

You know, this short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the

Safety and peace, only fools would think differently, all caps. So call me a fool, I guess, a couple of notes there at that point. I thought that the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat had already happened, they promised us about it happened, I guess not.

And then the second line, it's a very small price to pay for USA and world safety and peace.

I literally the opposite of what he campaigned up. You know, he campaigned the fools with the people that cared about world peace.

“Why are we the world's policemen who cares what's happening over there?”

I care about you and your pocketbook, this, like this bleed on the gas prices is the exact opposite. It's like, oh, well, you know, I'm sorry, you got to pay an extra bucket gallon, but we're focused on a world peace over here. Look, we can make the hypocrisy arguments until we're blue in the face, but honestly,

and we should. And we will. Trump doesn't care. I didn't think about this a lot, you know, you and I actually, we jumped on right after this happened, kind of a couple days in, and we were like, why isn't Trump done

an over-law office address? Why isn't he talking to the American people? But actually, the question does sort of answer itself, it's that he does not care. Just think about Trump's experience right now. Think about what it's like to be him.

All you do is have cabinet meetings where everybody goes around the table to tell you what

a beautiful, amazing, brilliant job you've been doing.

All you're doing is taking calls from billionaires, telling you how amazing you are in their sending a million bucks, and could you get there degenerate son and law, you know, pardoned. He's part, you know, he's partying the January six people who are out there committing heinous crimes of sex crimes against children.

Now, you know, like he doesn't get any blowback for that. All he hears from the people surrounding him in every way is how incredible he is. And so, Trump, he doesn't care about making a case to the American people. He doesn't care what we think. He doesn't even care about his poll numbers.

He doesn't. He already won.

“Like, I think that sometimes when we talk about isn't this bad for him politically,”

of course, it's bad for him politically in a normal way. Like, in terms of his numbers go down, people think he's a hypocrite. Voters don't like it. People are actually dying. Gas prices are going up.

There is inflation. He looks like a fool. He doesn't care. And the second you realize, don't let the nihilism infect you. But the second you realize what a nihilist he is.

And that he, unlike any other American president, does not care about the impact on the American people in any real way. Everything starts to make sense. Two thoughts on this. One, I've been saving this one.

We'll wait for the writer to opportunity to bring it up. A friend was in the White House because their boss was meeting with Trump. We've got a kind of anonymized us, and then he won't believe what happened. Trump does the thing he's taking us around, and they go into Marko's office, and Trump is like Marco.

“How are things going with the world or the war or something?”

And Marco replies, Mr. Press, everything is going great.

You're the greatest, most visionary leader of all time, and the world is never respected

us more, and he takes him to Scott Bestonth office, and it's like Scott, how are things going with the economy? And it's like, it's a golden age, sir, it's a golden age, Mr. President. And it's like, this is a story, it's like, OK, we've all come to accept that that is happening at the cabinet meetings.

We make fun of it, but it's like been the reality now for eight years, you know, it's started in the first term. There is just something about the fact that this was happening in private, you know, that speaks to the point you just made. But like not only is Trump not getting any real advice, but like the opposite, like even

in private, they are, you know, just treating him like he's a leader from the middle ages, you know, and the surfs have to all pay homage to him, so that, you know, he doesn't send them to their deaths. I think that's right. And I think we've done a lot to understand that these aren't normal times, but there

are certain things that we think of as hard political realities, they're unavoidable even for somebody with a cult-like following-like Trump. And that is true in so far as if gas prices go up significantly and stay there for a prolonged period of time, it will erode his numbers further, but they're already eroding across all kinds of vectors, but nowhere more than on affordability and just the economy.

Yeah. But if you then say to yourself, he doesn't care, and he's not really getting the getting that information. Anyway, like it's so funny, one of the numbers that you saw circulating, and I guarantee you this is the number he is seeing, first they pulled and asked people, are you a regular

Republican or are you a mega Republican? And for people who said they were mega Republicans, then they said, "Do you approve of the war on Iran?" Well, that has a 98% approval among people who say they're a mega Republican.

That's the number he tweets out on his personal social media platform. Like, think about this. He's not even on a social media platform where he is reading criticism, like he used to live in a world. He used to be on the general social media platform, so he could see.

Now he's on his own private one who only is followed by journalists and then everybody else is a big mega person. He's totally isolated from reality.

“This leads to my second observation, and I almost hate to bring this up, really honestly,”

because on the one hand, I try to keep my catastrophizing within the balance of what I think

is realistic, and also you never have to hand it to somebody like Nick Wattis.

And so I say this with massive caveats in the front of that, but I was watching Nick Wattis clip of a leaking, and Nick is down on the war, and he said something about just like, sometimes even the crazy people understand other crazy people's brains in a way that is a little concerning, he said something about Trump and about how Trump now doesn't actually care about us or politics or anything.

He is totally in Megalomania world, and he wants to do historic things. He sees himself as a grand historic figure, and he's seen it all right, so I was watching this. I'm nodding nodding. This is like when a greenland, this is why Venezuela, and the Arc de Triomphe, and all

it explains all of that, and he goes, and that makes me also think that he wants to drop the bomb. It was like, are you giving me a jump scare watching it? Yeah. Because all of a sudden, I was like, okay, and then Nick was on his, I don't think it's

“definitely going to happen or saying he's like, I'm just saying like, you have to think”

about it now. Because it's the kind of thing that only a historic figure would do.

It's only happened once before, and he gets to be the first in the modern times.

So anyway, that's just something he people up at night. I don't know if I'm not predicting it, just saying that that was a rare time that I am consuming magamedia, and I heard a point that I was like, oh, that's a little too real. Yeah, I mean, look, suddenly I feel like I'm on a podcast with JVL, and you know,

you're doing mexical lists, and I have to be the one to be like, I don't think he'll drop a nuclear bomb, and then everyone's going to yell at me. I don't think you will. I don't think you will understand that Trump is actually-- That I'd tickle a little thing in your brain to get a little more free, a little motherly

worry. Yeah, but I don't know, I do feel like my Trump arrangement syndrome is full and total. So there's not a lot of room for me to sit there and be like, yes, I don't worry about the following things. I do try to maintain perspective, however, I also think that so many people under

react to what he's doing, and they continue again to do too much traditional political analysis, and they think, well, no president can just watch gas prices go up this high, watch his numbers sink this low, inflict this much pain on the American people, literally do the opposite of what he can't paint for like, you can't do that. That's against the political gravity.

And I'm just saying, there's no political gravity. He hasn't held it over office address because he doesn't care what we think to your point

“about you need to listen to other people that don't think the way you do.”

Yeah. You should listen to all those pundits who tried to tell us that the people rationalizing Trump, I don't listen to what he says. I only listen to what he does. Okay.

Well, let's just look at what he does. It's the exact opposite, which is why everybody can sort of decide to be for Trump. He's so all over the place. He can give anybody something to tag onto, but if I had told you a year ago, actually what Trump is going to do is say, basically, like, I'm in this with Netanyahu, he's

going to be let around and also there's only constraint, this is own morality and his own mind. And so that's it. He doesn't care about us or any of these things. He only cares about those things. All right, guys, I don't know if it's because I'm living in New Orleans or something about

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“What are the things on this about our Trump trade, it's in terms of expectations?”

It was another little light bulb ahead over the weekend. I think officially this weekend, Trump 2.0 became worse than my expectations. I'm curious what you think about that, because for a long time, if I'm like, this is a Ben Rhodes, I was last week, this is the worst case scenario for Trump 2.0.

I need you to let you into my mind for other, because for me, like Trump 2.0, it's basically

been, you know, me not in the particulars, like, could I predict a Greenland or, you know, kidnapping the Doro now. But, you know, generally it's been, like, kind of what I expected. Like, I expected to remast my in the street harassing people, maybe a situation would arise if they'd end up killing people, because that was what they wanted to do.

Mass deportations. Like, I expected that. I expected the tariffs. And in some ways, it's been a little better in the sense that, like, I figured that the FBI and DOJ, which are kind of the scariest power ministries, would have been more competent

than they are. So, you know, when I think about the first year, this kind of, like, it was really bad, like, maybe slightly better than what my Trump trade incident on baseline was. Like, this war is the first time that I'm like, I didn't think that he was going to be just stupid.

Like, it's, it's stupid or than I expected, anyway, I wonder what you were, where you're out on that? Well, I think part of what's interesting about why he likes the war, because I think a lot of this again. He doesn't care what we think.

He just, he discovers things himself. And one of the things he's discovered is that to your point, Pam Bondi can't get him what he wants. Right. And cash, but tell can't get him what he wants.

Like, the problem of putting incompetent people who will do whatever you say in there is that they are fundamentally incompetent. And so, there are some constraints that we're like, they can't overcome some of the process that constrains them. What he's realized, though, is that the military is extraordinarily competent, the American

military, RCA, that the Israeli intelligence apparatus, he's relatively confident. These are wildly competent things that he now gets to play with.

“And so, I think for him, yeah, that's what it is.”

It's like, oh, no, these guys are good at this. They are blowing things up, they are killing people, and I can just, I can just say, go for it. I'll sue you with this one thing. The reason he doesn't drop the big bomb is that other people have the big bomb.

And Trump will do whatever it is to preserve his own life. Just himself. So as long as he's alive, I don't do anything that gets us annihilated as a country. Okay. Yeah.

That does save me a little bit. And it's really bad. Like, for example, we bond to school, and Southern Iran, and he lied about it this weekend. We tell you that it's a little bit of some Friday. I just want to mention one more time.

The guys of Belling Cat, the military analyst, yeah, so it's kind of like the commodities analyst. Things are going bad when Tim is like going deep on Belling Cat and, you know, room into counts.

And also commodities analyst, that's where we're at, but they basically identified

the idea that it was a timehawking missile that hit the school or on doesn't have that as robust as not but only we have it. So it was a double tap. So parents going to try to find their kids and the rubble then got killed just horrible. And Trump was asked about this and it's like, it was Iran, they're not very accurate with

their munitions. I don't know who taught them the word munitions. It's a new word that you learned. I think this week. Yeah.

Every war, every president, we've got, you know, we've made mistakes with our targeting and kill civilians, but the scale of this is, is notable, just like the number of children dead. But then also like, just the lies, I like, and we said, we talked about that week. I think Abu Grub was horrible.

There were whistleblowers from inside the administration, you know, like they had to acknowledge it, they had to change policies. Like, took too long and there are other bad things that happened right, but then this administration is just like, no, they're Iranians do that. And it's, or well.

Do you have any like movies or books or things that really shaped your view of the American

“military or about how Americans do things like morally?”

Because while you think about that, I'm going to tell you mine. So one of my favorite movies when I was younger and still is great is a movie called Memphis Bell. You should check it out. It's really good.

It's about a plane, a crew that is flying over a bomber plane, and it's their last run, so they have done enough runs and survived it and were worth two that they're getting

And they are hoping it's going to be a nice, like, milk run to France or something,

“but it turns out, no, they're going straight into Germany.”

And as they're flying over, there's a bunch of fire and like they're just really in the thick of it. But they get a little too far in the guy who's who looks down to see where the bombs will hit, says we have to go around again and they get in a fight in the plane. Some people are like, just drop them, just drop the bombs so we can get out of here alive.

This is our last one and they're like, next to it's a school, next to it is this, but like this is the munitions factor or whatever it is they were like, that was the thing they had to hit, so they go around again. And it's this incredibly harrowing moment, but the character of the people is that we will not drop these bombs on innocent civilians.

And instead, we will risk our lives to make sure we hit the proper target. Everybody should go watch this movie. It's really, really a good movie, but a lot of it defined for me, you know, the way these soldiers sort of thought about their obligations, pride is a test with to that. Yeah, pride in the country.

Pride in the country. How we do things, for sure. How we do things here. That's right. I've thought about that a lot as we like, and our opening salvo in this war accidentally

hit the school. Now, number one, I watched all the right wing influencers, Eric Erickson and these types. He was coming for Sam, Stein, when we suggested that it might have been America and he was like, no, it was a Iranian bomb, you know, like they just thought or called everybody anti-Semitic that was pushing that.

That's right. Well, yeah, we can talk about how, okay, I don't think so. Yeah. No, it wasn't the Iranians, it was us.

“And so here's the thing that comes with that is to your point, horrible things happen in”

the war. But what you do as Americans, when something like this happens, is you accept responsibility, like that's what we have to do now.

And so to watch Trump, like these amazing situations where Trump is in front of the reporters

and they're asking him about it and he's like, that didn't happen. And then Pete Hex that's standing right behind him says, we're investigating because they know what was us. And like, they're just going to say we're investigating to buy time, I guess, and the hopes of people forget or whatever it is they do.

But Trump is just lying about it, just like Christy known lied about killing Alex Freddie and Renee Good and calling them domestic terrorists, like we have a government that's lying to us, which is why to people like Pat Horats, or anybody else who wants to criticize us for not being full-throatedly, you know, all in on us going to work against Iran. You have to.

Is nobody should trust this government, this version of our government isn't trustworthy. And so for people to be skeptical, then of what it does is fair and different than the way things work 12 years ago.

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“I've been more influenced by this honestly by talking to people out of the Iraq Afghanistan”

war and we had a well-solver and David French is right in the middle of the sloth of my body Thomas is talking to me about this and it's like, I didn't serve, and there was frustration sometimes. Iraq and Afghanistan again, not that we were perfect in some of these wars of particular Iraq and it's stupid, but just how Americans conducted themselves are tried to aspirational.

They tried to conduct themselves and a lot of times they put handcuffs on themselves. For this reason, they did not want to unnecessarily kill civilians. There were rules and ways of the road that they acted and that caused frustration at times right because they're putting themselves at risk in the same way and Pete Higgs' death

the chains and get rid of the jags and all of that. This is not just, oh, we don't particularly

like the character of the people in charge. They have made the case that America shouldn't act like you just said that we should be less limited by the rules of war and that we should act like the baddies do. If Pete Higgs has been on this beat since he was on Fox. This is sort of frustrated me about the discourse around Iran with some of our old friends who are, you know, let's call them that or whatever conservative folks is like Hawkes

“is that I think that anybody with a brain, anybody with a conscience, like you update your”

priors based on new information that you have and we're getting a bunch of new inputs that must be brought into consideration when we think about whether or not we should support a regime change war under this administration and not we already talked about the lying that this administration does, which is one of the reasons we should be skeptical. We can't we can't evaluate the information that's going to come out. But also, we have been told

that they are much less interested in America being the version of America that we all thought we had when we were more supportive and more hawkish on these things. Like if they're not going to follow international law, if they're not going to follow our own domestic law, then conservatives, even if they're supportive theoretically, of regime change, which by the way, now we've just got the sun. So just we've got another community. So there we

go. So far. So far, we'll see you in a couple more people and see what the next person down the line is. That's right. But anyway, just you'd have to be brain dead to not be updating your analysis based on the new information we have. I agree with that. Let's let's noodle on that a little bit more, particularly in the context of Israel. You you reference this Trump said yesterday that the decision on wind and the war

in Iran will be a mutual decision made with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

America first. That's intriguing. Again, this is on the list of things that used to be

“anti-Semitic. I think it was slander to say to somebody that they had a dual interest or”

dual loyalty with Israel. And sometimes by the way, that was an actually an anti-Semitic slur that people were leveling at folks. Yeah. But now Trump is just saying, yeah, we have dual interests in this with with Israel for some reason, with Coff and Kushner, we're scheduled to go visit like a canceled. We don't really know why. As I mentioned in this clip from Tony Blinken was on another podcast and he was talking

about something that Obama confronted during his term really to Iran. I want to listen to that. Look, you know, this has been a long story when it comes to Iran. And back during the Obama administration, the Israelis were pushing President Obama to take military action against Iran. And we're warning that they would do it themselves if he didn't. And he wouldn't. That's interesting. Just like that, exactly, that they were warning they would do it themselves

if he didn't. And that's basically what Marco Rubio says happened. Yeah, we don't know exactly

what happened. But all I can do is take the Secretary of State and his words. Is that what he's saying is that the Israelis made the same push with Trump that they had with Obama, which is, hey, we're going to go in and do this. They might retaliate against you. You can roll with us or not. Obama called the bluff and didn't go in Trump went in. I was pretty

“not worthy. Yeah, I mean, I think Rubio's thing, he got caught telling the truth. And I think”

the administration was a little frustrated with that because they know that that plays into fears that many of their base, they're America first base holds, which is why they then tried to sort of walk it back. But actually, this leads me to a question or a discussion that you and I should have. We haven't had this personally, but it's worth having, which is both you and I come from a place and a time and a political background where our support

for Israel was sort of non-negotiable, right? And you can tell me if you felt differently, but like we were, we were raised and I still feel this. I get a pit in my stomach sort of at thinking about how one criticizes Israel or even talking about us doing this, right? Because it is it was so deeply ingrained that they were an oasis of democracy and kind of a sea of totalitarianism and we had to support them because we were allies, but this goes to, and there's a historic

right to be there. I guess both the biblical part but just or more recently, I kind of

they deserved a place, a homeland a place that was safe, that was theirs. Like I support all of that

“and still do. That will not change. And when the John Podhorses and those guys tried to”

come at you and call you anti-Semitic, like the real talk is you're like, no, no, you don't want to do anything. Anything that would feel like you were in any way sort of saying that Israel shouldn't exist or any of that. I get mad at those colleagues. When did the people that lived there, bad or like did that anything inherent? Like obviously. And so I feel that deeply and yet I also have to grapple with again, it's like updating the way you feel about American foreign policy

in the hands of Trump. One has to think about it in the hands of Netanyahu and like how this is all working. And so like do I trust Netanyahu? Do I trust BB Netanyahu? Not at all.

These are both corrupt men. These are both people who held on to power in large part to avoid

prosecution for their corruption. And so like we shouldn't just be bullied into that old reflexive instinct. We have to update for the information we have now about the behavior that we're seeing in this moment. I want to add one element to that as well, is that after October 7th, I also found myself reflexively defensive at Israel, of course, because the attack was so heinous and it's hard to imagine being a like Israel. And I tried to put myself in the shoes. I

friends live in Israel and they're like, you think about that and like the safety feeling. And it's like, okay, we don't have a situation like that. Okay, that's when we got bombed on 9/11. It's like that next car can't. Right? We're going to have somebody living on our doorstep. It's a threat. And so if you have somebody living on your doorstep that is that creative a threat,

“you know, the calculation about what you need to do to protect yourself and your people is different.”

And so like there was a period of time, I think probably looking back on it myself, like I'm reflecting on my own views. Like I kind of felt like I almost gave it the benefit of that out of a little too long because of that reason because I was sensitive to that. And I was just like, you know, I can't, it's hard to put myself in their shoes, you know, because it's like this was such a traumatic event for the country and for the people and the hostages and the hostages families,

and it's just, it's unimaginably horrible. And so you have this and it's like, okay, well, this is real war, like in wars things, you know, things are messy and ugly. Right? And I had that instinctive view that tied it back to all things you discussed about being a public end and all across the historic, the ally ship and a silly's it sounds like the place where gaze can go in the Middle East. It's like, I could take my husband to tell of Eve and be free and I can't do that in very many other

places in the Middle East, right? And so there is like a sense that we had this ally ship. But to your point, like among the reasons why it was easy for me to bail on the Republicans in the

Trump era, it's like, I was always a technocratic Republican. Like, I was unpractical. Like, I was,

I'm not an ideologue, really. Like, there are a few things that I have strong ideological views on,

“but I'm not an ideologue, right? And just as a person who is an observer of this of like, what is happening?”

Like, you just have to accept what you're having, what is happening with your eyes. And like Israel's actions, particularly over the last year and a half, you know, have been so gratuitous. And what is continuing happening right now? Like, in the West Bank, for example, with the settlements. And now getting us in this war with Iran, which again, maybe Israel has to decide because of their how tenuous their security situation is that it

makes sense for them to go with Iran or order on, okay, and maybe maybe you could sell me on the idea that like, we could provide some, you know, behind the scenes intelligence or targeting or whatever, because Israel did feel like they had an imminent threat. But like, we didn't, we didn't, we didn't. There is no imminent threat. Seven Americans are dead now. Like, and who knows how many more are going to be? The economy is in shambles. We get sucked into this war that we have nothing to do with.

I obviously be, be, usually influential in that. The actions in the West Bank and Gaza were way far too far beyond the pale on going. American died in the West Bank recently, by the way, a settler killed them from American from Philadelphia. You can't watch all this. And I looked, I pulled this off. So this is me and Leef, he's a, he's a lefty guy from Oakland. We don't agree on a whole lot. But he saw this. And I was just like, okay, I'm going to read this. He has no matter how many

people are killed by Israel, how many hospitals, how many Palestinians have under apartheid, how many countries that have evades, many US-pundits will claim it's an island of Western value, simply because they have a gay pride parade. And I was like, maybe a little gratuitous, but there's something there.

like it's deep inside me. Even me saying that, you're getting reflexively a little defensive. Yeah, honestly. Honestly, honestly. Honestly, honestly, I feel like a, an affinity for Israel. I feel like a certain way that I feel, you know, and it's like, to your point,

“think about the way you felt right after 9/11 happened. If you're old enough to remember that,”

not the way you felt eight years later. But the way you felt right after 9/11 happened. And like, then think about what happened on October 7th was that plus the horrible humiliating, denigrating, like the rape and the dragging through the streets. Like, if you're on going hostage, the hostages, which were, which were just a whole great percentage of the country, like the number of people who are, in fact, I was great. And so like, I felt after October 7th.

I'm like, I want to see every member of Hamas destroyed, by the way, still do, still do. Still. Yeah. There does have to be, though, I think part of our obligation

as big powerful democracies is our ability to show a certain amount of restraint and proportionality.

Right. Like, we, this is how we think about who we are. Like, there's who they are and there's who we are. And as long as we are behaving with, and our allies are behaving with the kind of democratic restraint and proportionality that provides maximum safety without things getting out of control. And like, we have faith in that that is different from what we're experiencing. And we shouldn't be unable to say, no, what I'm seeing with my eyes is too far or too much or making us less safe.

And I don't trust the people doing it. Like, we should say that because it's true. It's true. And I said this a year ago, like when I was first trying to grapple this after October 7th, I forget it so it's from or somebody else's a little more proud of me. And I was like, far be it for me to tell the government of Israel to do what they think they need to do for their own safety. Okay. So take whatever. I'm not a military expert. I don't live there.

But just as a political analyst and as somebody who kind of sees what's happening around the world,

“I was saying at the time, I was like, I think this is a mistake. I think Israel is isolating itself.”

And I think that the support from the other Western countries militarily and economically that they've had. I think it's very tenuous right now. And I think that, you know, they should obviously continue to do it. They feel like they need to do to protect their people. But like that should also be a consideration. And they don't seem to care. Like, maybe doesn't seem to care about that. He seems to have made a bet that whatever that maybe, you know, they can eviscerate all the

photos in the Middle East during this one period where Trump is in there. And this is their moment and maybe they'll come to some packs Middle East to kind of, you know, with the UAE and Saudi in 2029. And I don't have a crystal ball. Maybe that'll end up being right. But like my political analyst

is analysis is correct. Like, Israel's now underwater an American popularity for the first time

effort in history and going down. I think. And if this war becomes more and more of a shit show, like that number is going to continue to get lower and lower. And and that was just a bet that they made. There's two points. I want to make here. One is what I don't understand about the people who are so reflexively fine with everything we're doing. And they're so mad at us for not being a hundred

“percent on board. I'm like, well, which explanation for why we're in there? Are you supportive?”

Because also, yeah, if Donald Trump had come and made a case or Netanyahu did jointly, whatever, people were making a case. The president Netanyahu and his VP Donald Trump had come to the American people in May to stay. And said, Iran is uniquely weak right now. Like, actually, they're whole thing about imminent threat, et cetera, et cetera. Actually, if they said, they're uniquely weak. This is our moment. This is our opportunity. The people are asking for

change. Like, you maybe could get me there with some people. But I hear you would have been better case than this one. It would have been a better case. I mean, and if it wasn't Trump do. Yeah, sure. But like, if there, if we lived in a different world and somebody was saying, they're doing uniquely, they're uniquely weak. Like, I might have been like, okay, like, let's see, there are lots of good reasons why Iran, we should be worried about Iran's role in the world.

But they didn't do that. They didn't give you a case for this. We are not getting any case. They're not coming to the American. So why just sacrifice your, just say, like, yeah, whatever they say is fine. That's number one. I think it's an unthinking, uncritical, not useful position to take. And all of their only role is to lash out at people like us to try to keep us on side,

which you're not going to do, because we have eyes and can think for ourselves. The second thing

to your point about public opinion, it is all over the focus groups with people younger than us. So part of why I was talking about this reflexive thing is like, they're counting on a certain amount of that in the American people. Like, a muscle that we have. And I acknowledge that muscle,

focus groups and that it's funny because there's, to the people who sort of say everything is anti-Semitic.

I hear things when I do the MAGA focus groups that are anti-Semitic. And then I hear all the other things. I have a left like, no, no, there's like a bell curve. So like on the tables on either side, you hear things that you're like, I don't like that. That is not. That's coming from a bad place. But then up here in the big bell curve part, you hear a lot of people, younger people, just saying,

“I don't understand why I can't say that what I think Israel is doing is wrong.”

Like, they're just like, people keep telling them they can't say it and they don't know why they can't say it because they don't kind of have that same, quite the thing that we have, maybe. And by the way, Israel keeps saying, you're talking points that what have been anti-Semitic a month ago.

I mean, BB Netanyahu said that he wants to use TikTok as a weapon to manipulate people. Trump said

that he's waiting on BB to decide whether to leave the war. Marco said that BB got us into this war. So it's not like anti-Semitic or irrational for young people to look at this and be like, why? Why did a 19 year old just die for Israel? Because the government keeps telling me that they're dying for Israel. Maybe they're not. Maybe there's some other secret reason that's going, but this is what the President and the Secretary of State have said. That's right. And they also,

and Donald Trump told us he wouldn't do this. Right. Like, they weren't raised under George W.

“Bush. And so like, there's an entire generation now that is in a very different place. Like,”

that your point about public opinion, this is actively changing in this moment. The way young people across the political spectrum view Israel and view the United States. Like, they were raised on Donald Trump's isolationism. Again, this is going back to like, there were public and support for Trump and the war in Iran. Okay. That Trump was able to go from 20% where nobody supported this before we did it. No one supported it and then it went up to 41%. Why? Because it's Trump's

war and people who just support Trump are like, okay, fine. And so sometimes people are like, well, they'll support everything. It's a call blah, blah, blah, yes, true. But then there's all the independence who voted for Trump literally for the opposite reason. They voted for Trump because they said no new wars. And a lot of those were young people. Like, there's, it's not that young voters are swing voters exactly. And I sort of talk about this in the book. But they're swinging

“in the sense that they haven't picked aside completely. And they listened to what Donald Trump said”

and didn't know what he was going to do. And so they're the ones who like, if 51% of the country voted for him, that's not the support he has now because a lot of people have left. They were the swingier voters who listened to what he said and voted for those things. It's not doing those things. The goes of the book, I hope that the Persian George Washington emerges and that Israel is safe forever. But I'm studying that doesn't seem to be likely to be with the current strategy.

You mentioned the voters. Let's just play. I've got a little bit of sound from your focus groups. I know love more. I'm back on the focus groups for people who didn't know. I apologize to Sarah, but I needed a year off from hearing from the voters. I'm back on now, locked in. You've been doing some more focus groups. I want to play this little teaser for people of these are Biden to Trump voters talking about the war. We're already in bad economy and going it's another

war and going to battle for another country when we have enough problems on our hands over here.

Well, if you bomb in the first time and set their nuclear program back decades and why are we bombing

them again, that's my first question. My second question is if we're bombing them so we can have a regime change, what's our game plan for who's going to take over now and how are we going to ensure that they're not going to be worse than the Iotola? Because my fear is that it's going to be a repeat of what happened with Saddam when we killed Saddam and then ISIS took over. And ISIS was worse than Saddam. Under Biden it was the Ukraine Russian war and now under Trump we're in Iran.

So it's like we're at it's still a war. It's still in all the other people's business more on. It's still like the same stuff. It's just a different flavor. Plast guys a little bit less insightful than the lady, but you get a sense for where the the Biden to Trump voters are on this. Yeah, she's asking. She's asking good questions. I'll say and his in that last guy's defense. Yes, you do get these things where it's like, do you see

the difference where Russia invaded Ukraine? Okay, just as Joe Biden was the American president. Literally that had not do with them. Unlike this war, which we are in because Donald Trump took us and Congress didn't even approve of it. He's different. He's different, but the sentiment is still there, right? They're like, they don't want this. And Donald Trump and JD Vance and the rest of them raised them to not want this. So yeah, that this is young voters. I hear anti-Semitism sometimes.

of it is pretty like, why are we doing this? And why is Israel have so much influence over us?

And like, that's a fair question. Yeah, I guess I book in my thought on that with, I agree that

“there's anti-Semitism. There's a problem. I've talked about it a lot on this podcast. I think the war”

is making that problem worse, not better. Do you mention JD Vance? Yeah, me and JBL are a little discreet about this last night on the live stream. So just wanted your take on it. I think this is like really bad for him, politically. JD Vance has been very deaf and navigating the mag establishment divide up until now, very deaf. And he was the one guy that was the TPSA food fight at America Fest. And it was like the people on the Tucker side, the people on the bench appear outside,

both were like JD thumbs up. So eventually that it's going to be a tough goal. It's going to hold together. I think this war is making that more challenging for him. I noticed that there was a CBS town hall with Barry Weiss in JD Vance for next week that was canceled. I'm fascinated here when I was canceled because Barry only once on a apologetically pro or on war before on the network and the vice president wouldn't count or because the vice president couldn't defend

“the war and didn't want to deal with the hard questions about it. Either way,”

interesting cancellation. I would say, what do you make from JD's prospects? So if Donald Trump doesn't care about what the American people think right now because he doesn't have to run for election again. JD Vance does care like JD Vance and the people who want JD Vance care. Like part of the reason why I think you see Meghan Kelly and Tucker and the more isolationist wing of the party speaking out against this isn't actually because they care so much about being

consistent. It's that they have a view of politics that goes beyond Donald Trump. Right? So if you're a view of politics doesn't go beyond Donald Trump and especially if you're Donald Trump it doesn't. Then you don't care. You don't care what public opinion says. But if you're trying to get elected and you're trying to be a political pundit that has a future beyond Trump. You're a maga political pundit, the way Tucker and Meghan Kelly and all these people who thrived in the

“Trump era are, then you can't be for this war. You have to stay on the JD Vance side of things.”

And so you're actually starting to see again I have long talked about the split between maga

and America first. They are different. A lot of regular voters don't know how to fall into

this category because they're not thinking that hard about it. But the pundit class is cracking up along those lines. And that is, that is the JD Vance problem right now. Every quote that he gives in support of this war will be hurled back against him because he's already a flip flopper. He's already a guy where people are not sure they trust him because he doesn't say things consistently. That's like one of the big knocks against him in the focus groups. So I agree with you that it

does hurt him. This is where, you know, I know what JVL is thinking like JVL's sort of voice thinking like, these people are so nihilistic that it doesn't matter. They're black-pelted. Yeah, they'll go off with him for whatever he'll. But I think that's not quite right. We're way over. So I just want to wrap it fire through this DHS stuff. And so he talked about your

book, which I'm very happy about. Very proud of you. It's really quite a feat. DHS stuff first.

They're lying about us as you mentioned earlier about more things than just the war. This is a pretty shocking Wall Street Journal story. The government has accused 2709 people over the past year of attacking federal officers, whether that'd be Sandwich Guy or negative just regular people across the country. They've accused 2709 people. 181 of the 279 were American citizens. Of those 181, only half have been charged with the crime and zero have been convicted. A trial,

zero, so far. So at minimum, like even if you're being as generous as possible and taking the court process moving slow or whatever, 90 Americans, so basically one third of the people that the government is accused of attacking officials, they just lied about whole cloth. They didn't even bring charges against them. It was just fake fabricated. For the sake of time, I'm just going to say stipulated. Yeah, they're lying. It's bad and they do lie about everything. DHS shut down thing.

It's going to hit this really quick. We're still shut down the lines of TSA in New Orleans where I'll do that into the parking lot. Pretty concerning, because we've got to go to Texas next week for live shows. I mean, Dallas and Austin, you end up driving. We still took it's not for Austin. So come hang out with us in Austin, March 19th. This is not tenable for that line. In Houston, how'd you ever put it four hour long waits at TSA? Bill Crystal, we will represent him. So he's

just, since he should be here on Bill Crystal Monday. So he's been saying for a while that the Democrat should be putting forth a bill that just says, hey, we'll fund TSA and FEMA. And that's it. Make the Republicans vote on that. That seems smart to me. That does seem smart. And you know,

about the people who fly and people who fly a lot, the higher percentage of them have

outsized political power. You start creating huge long lines of airports for all the people who work in businesses, you know, corporate types, whatever. It's totally untenable. People will howl about that. And so Democrats fighting to free that up and not, but not the ice stuff smart. Back to the book. Things seem very bad in the country, because the Niagara Republicans have been elected twice now in Donald Trump in particular. The book had to eat an elephant. I think

it's providing some guidance on, you know, how we can reverse that. Is that right? As I'm an illiterate. JBL's read it. I haven't been given a draft. So I don't know. So you have to, I've

“listened to know your interviews about it. But you have to tell me. Was that the, was that the key”

element in here? Yeah. So there's two things. One, the how to eat an elephant one voter at a time is not to the fact that like Magga and the, the forces that Donald Trump has unleashed on our politics are, it's a big intractable problem. Right. That's what, what, the idiom of how to eat an elephant is meant to be like, how do you tackle something that feels so big that you can't do it? And

the answer has always been one bite at a time. Meaning how do you sort of take it piece by piece and

figure out how to tackle this big intractable problem? Obviously, that also worked for the fact that, you know, elephants and donkeys. It's not that's pretty pretty on the nose for that part. But the one voter at a time is an indication that I have spent now the last eight years because of Donald Trump listening to voters. Listening to voters has been for me like cheat code for understanding politics. And the fact is not a lot of people do it. And so the book is about both all of the

“stuff you and I went through. You are in the book a lot, Bill is in the book a lot because it's all”

about the best beginning days of us trying to figure our way through. And one of the ways I figured out how to do it was by talking less and listening more. Even though I talk all the time and I've

all these podcasts and we're talkers like I didn't start talking until after I'd really done some

listening and listening to the voters made me both understand how Donald Trump happened. Understand how disconnected both regular like mainstream Republicans and also Democrats are from what a lot of voters are talking about. Also in our atomized fractured media environment, I talk a lot about the way that the new media environment, the pressure that's putting on voters, or the way that it's changing how they're thinking about politics. I talk a lot about the

parasocial relationships now that voters need to have with politicians, which is why politicians have to have different communication styles. I mean, there's so much about how like politicians who spent years learning how to be politicians now have to go back and figuring out how to be humans because the the art of this you're trying to be a mid tier influencer now actually not. Well actually it's I mean it's not quite what I say, but I do I do a few things. One is I out

one where a lot of the voters aren't policy. Just straightforwardly there's a lot of sweet spots

“for where the and I out loud who are swing voters? What is moving them? What is animating them?”

And there's two types of swing voters. There's the ones that take in a lot of information and they're swinging because they process what they're seeing and then there's the ones who are not paying attention to anything at all and they're living on vibes and vibes have gotten really important in this new information environment and like how do you create vibes? And so it is core to them for you and I as Republican communicators. This is a book about how we learned about

communications on the right and then we both found ourselves trying to fight Trump and seeing how people on the left tried to do communications in this moment and I can see the asymmetry so starkly having done both and then having listened to the way in this new environment voters are being impacted by Republicans' ability to do narrative dominance in a way that Democrats just haven't figured out yet and so it is a series of things that I want people to both understand about how

voters are processing information, how they're processing policy and the vibes and then also what Democrats can do about it to shift their communications abilities and capabilities and the information ecosystem structure that they need to build. There's a lot about what needs to be built in order to compete in the attention economy and those are the bites you got to take at that elephant. Are you excited for tomorrow to be nervous? I was nervous. I got to say I feel much better

today than I felt on Friday when the book was sort of launching because our people made it a bestseller before it's even come out which is like I got to say thank you if I haven't said thank you already I thank you from the bottom of my heart this community rides so hard for us we're so lucky but I also talk a lot about community in the book and the stickiness of it and how you build

quoted in about how Republicans have built how much of their infrastructure is built around these

“communities that are sticky and that are coordinated and but also diffuse not not top-down”

coordination right and so I do think there's a lot to learn from that but anyway I am excited and now I want the book I want the book to be valuable I said this to Bill but like if a abundance really kicked off a big conversation around policy among Democrats I would like for this it's not like abundance it's not it but I would like it to kick off a conversation about how Democrats communicate that people wrestle with you're not personally nervous you have any feelings

in your tummy I mean I just wanted to be I wanted to meet people's expectations you of course I do

no I'm nervous I'm nervous but I'm also I really wanted to this you were mad you didn't want me to do it I'm happy for you though I had eight years of focus group stuff that I had to get off my chest and so I'm like glad to put it out in the world and then just run this company well don't be nervous here's why I've wanted to be good we know it's gonna be good okay you're you're talented and you know people come on there's a lot of crap out there on the market trust

me I don't know when I was doing my book I had to read other political books lot of

low uh you're being created on a low curve alright it's not uh at the elite of the elite

uh number two is there will be fewer people that read your book than another listening to this podcast I don't want that to be true okay I don't want it to be true I want everyone listening right now to go buy and to read it but I learned this from my experience what I was like looking at the book scan numbers and then looking at the amount of people listening to podcasts and I was like why is it the same like shouldn't it be every single person in the answers no there are a lot of

people that are here listening that we love that are just listeners or maybe they listen to us while they're falling asleep at night or maybe they're library goers and so it wasn't purchased for whatever reason it will be fewer and so you know you can let yourself loose alright you know

“your little pods start getting around it's gonna be as important alright you can kind of let the”

you let those muscles flare and um it'll be great so go buy the book it's my takeaway go pre-order the button sounds like your takeaway is yes go buy the book but also more people listen to this podcast then we'll buy the book I'd like that not to be true go prove Tim wrong okay if you've ever gotten mad if you're interrupting me or I don't I interrupt you a lot on this podcast today I was noticing that you know go go make Tim wrong more people should buy the book then listen to this podcast

I agree the other things if you don't like either of us it also bowlwork book selling is good for the other bowlwork people yeah we have a lot of great people here and so hopefully they can go book deals after so we appreciate that I want to close the pod with this we have breaking news item from Trump the president was on I guess called in the fox maybe news asked about what the plan is for the oil prices the gas prices the ship should go through the street of four moves

and show some guts all right that sounds great we've really thought this all through nothing to be worried about here I can see why the the jingoists in the flag wear the flag waivers for this war so confident that's there along well her book is how to eat an elephant this war might help us out on that front we'll see how it goes you can find her on a legal news with Sarah Longwell the focus group was Sarah Longwell the next level of me and her that'll be out tomorrow

and I'll be back tomorrow for another edition of the show so we're giving you lots of content

“and the secret pod with JVL which is only for subscribers so go subscribe to subscribe too”

we'll see you guys tomorrow peace the board podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown