We The People 2026 Special primary coverage

The breaking news in the last hour, the 11th hour with Ali Valci, week nights at 11 p.m. Eastern on MSNow.

“Hey everybody, it's Rachel Mado here, forgive me popping in deer feed like this.”

But I want to tell you that more than a dozen of us from MSNow are going to be in Texas on Saturday, September 26th. I'm going to be there, Lawrence O'Donnell will be there, so we'll Jen Socky and Stephanie Rool, and Ali Valci and Chris Hayes and Jacob Sober often Simone Sanders Townsend and and and a whole bunch of us are all going to be there in Texas. Tickets started just over 30 bucks each, it's an Arlington just outside Dallas, there's a ton to do there. If you come, you'll get to meet all of us, you'll also get to meet everybody else there.

All these other great people from our great MSNow community, we'd love to see you. And if you buy a ticket to the Texas event, you will get access to our new MSNow membership. Free for a year. We're really excited about it. It launches later this summer. You'll be able to talk with me, talk with some of the other hosts, but tickets for Texas are on sale now. You can learn more at MS.nale/together. Hope to see you in Texas.

You're coming into the last whole closing of the night coming up on 11pm Eastern in Washington State residents there vote by mail. If you choose, so everybody gets sent a ballot that you can return by mail. If you choose, instead of mailing in your ballot, you can take your ballot to a drop box or to a voting center. And if you do that, you have until 8pm local time to do that. 8pm local time is five seconds ago. So in Washington, there's a bunch of interesting races to watch.

In terms of democratic party machinations, we've been watching the Democratic member of Congress Marie Gluson Camp Perez. She's sort of an outspoken centrist kind of an idiosyncratic interesting democratic member of Congress. She's facing primary challengers in her southwestern Washington state district. It's an R+2 district, Trump narrowly won that district in 2024. She's narrow narrowly won that race twice. We'll be watching that Washington is also a state where we've got the top two candidates advancing to the general election regardless of which party they are in.

So we'll be having a look at those Washington results when we are first starting to get them.

We are still very closely though, watching the Senate race in Michigan as the Democratic primary in the Michigan Senate race continues to be a real nail biter. The polling in this race shifted over time. It's sort of made people think that there was going to be a really big difference in the early vote as compared to the same day vote.

“But I think a lot of the prognostication on this one is falling by the wayside as we now just have to watch the actual vote come in.”

And what you see on the right side of your screen here is an interesting factor. We've got 42% of the vote here. Overall you see how tight it is between Abdul Alsaid and Hayley Stevens. But on the right side of your screen there that is Mallory McMorrow who was in this race until July 5th when she dropped out, but she is still on the ballot. And pulling 3.7% of the vote is no way to get yourself elected Senator, but it is an interesting factor that may become really operative in terms of us understanding the dynamics of this race as they come in.

Right now the difference she's got 22,861 votes Mallory McMorrow again, she's not still in the race. Look at the difference between Abdul Alsaid and Hayley Stevens. It's 20,000 votes. So what in a close race, every single vote can matter and quirky dynamics in 2/3 way races can be potentially determinative.

Yeah, and you're playing on the polling. I mean, polling primers is always difficult because you're modeling an electorate and those modeling assumptions make a huge difference.

The last five or six polls that we saw like high quality polls in this race had Abdul Alsaid up by double digits plus. Yeah, I think at this point in the evening we can say pretty definitively that would not be the margin.

“Yeah, and I think that has actually a pretty important implication because whoever wins this is going to win a pretty close race.”

Yeah, between these two candidates. It's not going to be a romp. And that's going to have implications for how whichever whoever it is wins kind of figures out how to stitch that coalition back together to take on microdgers in the fall. And I do think it's different coming out of a narrow win than a big win. In terms of what's going through your head about how much do I need to talk to the folks tonight at the podium, for instance, or tomorrow if it's tomorrow that didn't vote for me. And I think that's actually now very much in the air for either of these candidates.

I'm struck by you talking about the need for whoever wins this on the Democratic side to stitch that coalition together.

I think you're getting our preview of what it's going to look like in the fall. Again, it doesn't matter what happens tonight.

And matters what happens in November, ultimately, at the end of the day, this Trump ally, someone who is close to the president and his ear on nights like this.

So there's a preview of what Twitter may look like tomorrow, mind you saying that they are focused on exploiting. They will be focused on exploiting those differences, the divisions that we're witnessing as we speak and have been talking about right now among Democrats. Obviously, so on the one hand, you have the Democrats who need only got a few months to try to, as you say, stitch it back together at the same time. The Republicans, Trump land, will be looking to do everything they can to sort of amplify.

Yeah, unlike it's not unlike the Republicans don't have something to exploit on their side too. Republicans have delivered absolutely squat to the people of Michigan over the last two years. Except high gas prices, a lack of health access to health care, and a whole bunch of other decisions that Mike Rogers is going to have to carry into this general election. And in electoral terms, they've delivered to the people of Michigan, the same Senate candidate who lost the last Senate race in Michigan against the list of slogans.

Exactly, that's exactly the same Google and the total candidates who thought twice they might as well. And so, while that is their space, they're going to do exactly what Peter said, and sort of shift the argument to say, look at all the commis on the left. And look at all the scary things you need to focus on in the left, right?

“That's why I want to go back to something that Ali Vitale said that is very, very important, which you posit at this framing of, you know, this either or, you know, do I turn out my base voters?”

I can talk about turning out that base vote, or do I turn out the folks who don't vote? Let me tell you what I did. I turned out both, because politics is not a zero sum game if you want to win. And the Democrats have to ask themselves, do you want, I don't give a damn who the nominee is at this point in the game.

You got to zero in on the bottom line.

Do you want to win this race? Because all the indicators, the leading indicators are there that you can. Also, I want to say, Mike Rogers at in a kind of, you know, resume way, like make sense as a sort of normie Republican in that state. As intelligence committee. How's intelligence committee? And I kind of again, like both, you know, he's maga because everyone's maga now, but he wasn't really maga.

So he has some sort of like old, wrongly style pedigree. You know, he had an interview with Semaphore the other day. They asked him like, what is position on the terrace? He couldn't come up with it. He said, I don't care. He goes, well, I care, but it's not really what I'm hearing about. It's like, man, you're going to, like, again, this goes in both directions.

“You're going to have to answer for the tariffs.”

You're going to have to answer for the, you know, for Todd Blanche.

You're going to have to answer for the war in a run.

You're going to have to answer for gas prices. You're going to have to answer for grocery prices. Like, you better get things together. Now you can rant about Scott free right now. Yes, exactly. All of the money that's been spent thus far in the primary has been spent,

between the Democratic candidates. So Mike Rogers just walking around here, like, Mr. Rogers, in a neighborhood, I don't care. And he should care, but he should care. To the point that Peter was making a bet about the coming together. It is not easy to come together.

This close to the general election. It'll be less than 90 days. It's a late primary. And Texas, they still trying to come together in the Democratic primary. Tell a recall, it's still struggling to you asked him the question about black voter support.

He did a town hall the other day with black voters trying to talk to them about that. So he is working hard. He is on in his kitchen. And he will need to. So if L. Sayed is the nominee, even if Haley Seasons,

Seasons is the nominee. I've talked to people in Michigan that have said, look, they both have to support. And they both have work to do in the black community. This looks like this primary is coming down to what

voters in Wayne County, specifically voters in Detroit, specifically black voters, because Western Wayne County is why. So what are voters in Detroit going to do?

“What are they talking about? That's what I'm looking for.”

By the way, not for nothing. The biggest billboard we saw is we drove to Saginaw hundred miles north west of Detroit. Yesterday and back was the giant gas price signs everywhere. Fort dollars thirty six cents. I think it is today.

The highest it has been since May of thirteen percent in the last week. You can talk about all the campaign signs that you want. And all these things that are outside of homes. But that's what people see every day right now. Whatever you say about a more normal Republican candidate.

That's something the Republicans are going to have to answer for. And certainly can have to answer for it. You know, and I will just say a little peek behind the curtain for our viewers here. In talking to our election unit today. In terms of how MSNow as a network views this Senate contest and the effort by

Democrats and Republicans to try to retain control for the Republicans or seize control of the Senate for the Democrats. This race, this Senate race for November in Michigan is viewed by MSNow by our nonpartisan experts as a toss up race.

It will still tomorrow be a toss-up Senate race in the fall according to R. Again, nonpartisan expert prognosticators. And now that may change when we see how the whoever the nominee is. What happens with the polling. We see what kind of how the campaign shape up from Mr. Rogers as you put it.

And and from the eventual Democratic nominee. There's nothing intrinsic about this choice that connects definitely to the question of electability. Absent the way the campaign unfolds from here on out.

“And so I think voters can try to gain that out.”

And we know they have to try to stitch these two things together. But there's nothing magic about either one of these candidates that makes this an easier fight. No, no. And I think that look, I'm so glad we made the point about the polls because we're not going to be a poll.

We're not going to be a poll. We're not going to be a poll. We're not going to be a poll. We're not going to be a poll. We're not going to be a poll.

We're not going to be a poll. We're not going to be a poll. We're not going to be a poll. We're not putting out their top lines. If they're not looking at, you know, we're not clear about who is behind just pushing the polling.

You can look like what happened in that Texas race wall. These polls that Jasmine Crocod was definitely going to. They pushed her into the race and come to find out after the fact who good reporting that those were Republican backed polling entities that put the polls out there to encourage her to get into the race to get the candidate that they wanted.

“And so I think again, polls do not vote people vote.”

So it's always important talking to people on the ground, which is why I thought it was so amazing,

which you were doing out there to watch all this stuff. I'm like, come out, vote this group. It's amazing to be as I used to be peppering you with questions about the day. I'm not going to be like that. I'm not going to be like that.

I'm not going to be like that. I'm not going to be like that. I'm not going to be like that. Big fancy sat here in New York. It's a good gig.

One between powers. Activate. Alivell, she is looking at Michigan right now. Overall. We've got how much in in the state 45%.

For sense. I'm the side is just straddling the 50% line. It was a little above it a few moments ago. Now he's back below. It still leads about the same though.

It's still about 23 and a half thousand votes here. But we are seeing these numbers coming in. They're coming in all over the state. You can see there are very few counties where where we don't have vote in. And in the popular, the areas with a lot of population.

Flint, Lansing, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Traverse City and Arbor Detroit. We've got, we've got lots of vote in. In Wayne County, 26% of the vote is in. And Haley Stevens still in the lead. Remember we went from sort of 6% to 25% and Haley Stevens took the lead.

She was running almost two thirds to one third.

Her her margin is dropping in in and around Detroit. She's now is a 15,000 point lead 50,000 vote lead in Wayne County. Now Wayne County is Detroit and other things in Detroit. This part of it over here. There's a little section here.

That's Ham Tramick and next to it is Highland Park. In these two places we do not have vote yet. This is important because Ham Tramick, like Dearborn, Dearborn is the old Ford plant, which attracted a lot of. A lot of immigrant workers where up to the side is done well.

Ham Tramick like that has also got a large South Asian community. We have not seen voting come in from Ham Tramick yet or from Highland Park. These are the only two areas within the city of Detroit where we haven't seen any vote at all yet. In both cases, they are likely to favor Abdul al-Sayad.

But he is at the moment trailing in Wayne County by 15,000 vote. So he is winning in three of the counties around Wayne. Losing in the one below it in. In above it, in McComb, he is winning. But that's again only 34% of the vote in in the betroth below.

Detroit is Monroe County, 20% of the vote in the 5% spread between Haley Stevens and Abdul al-Sayad. So this is a real nail better. We still have 800,000 democratic votes to count in Detroit and the spread across the state is under 25,000 votes.

It's not clear to anybody how this is going to turn out.

“I think you make an interesting point though.”

This is a swing state, Rachel, and regardless of what happens, it's still going to be a swing state tomorrow or Thursday or Friday. On Friday there is a unity rally. Mallory McMarrow has said she will be there to whoever wins. Haley Stevens has said she will support the winner hoping that it's her with her full

force. And last night I talked to Abdul al-Sayad and asked him whether he will be attending that rally and supporting Haley Stevens if she wins and he said yes. So they understand that it's August, not February like Texas. It's August now and they've got work to do.

Ali, while we are staying in Michigan, I want to take a look at Washington

in the second but before we leave Michigan, can we look at seven at the seven

Congressional District again? This is incumbent Republican Tom Barrett.

There won this Congressional is very, very narrowly in the last election.

“And we've got this interesting three-way democratic race here.”

What have we got so far? Yeah, so this is a really interesting case. He had Bridget Brink who, as you mentioned, was the former charged affair, the ambassador, US ambassador to Ukraine. We hadn't had one for a while by the way.

She was then put into place under President Biden. Donald Trump comes in. She doesn't agree with Trump's policies. So she resign and she decides to run in a very moderate lane and has a resume that makes a whole lot of sense to get elected to Congress.

Something happened and Matt Mazden gets into the race. He's supported by the state senator, the junior senator from Michigan, Alyssa Slotkin. There seems to be some overlap between Mazden's staff and Alyssa Slotkin. They split what appears to be the moderate vote.

William Lawrence, who's one of the founders of the sunrise organization. And coming in from the left is now at 42%. This has been moving around all night. Bridget Brink's been doing generally a little bit better,

but we're basically settling into a place with 54% in.

We're not in a position to call this, but William Lawrence is leading and has been leading all night. And the more moderate vote in a district that you said, Donald Trump carried narrowly has been split between two other candidates. It's an interesting one to watch.

Super interesting. We'll keep eyes on that. And that way again, 54% of the vote in there. Let's jump all the way across the country to Washington State. Tell us what we are looking for there.

I know that there's a few congressional districts there. Yeah, I'm trying to get to the one that I want to show you. Let me see where is it. Oh, I'll go. I'll just go work my way around the map until I until I find it.

Let's go. There we go. Three. That's what I'm looking for. All right.

This is 58% in.

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“So like there has been a little bit of I think there's some strategic sense.”

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Well, let's talk about this. 50% of the vote in the Democratic Senate primary. You can see how close that is. All right. Back to this one.

All right. 7th congressional district. Look, there has been a call in this case. We were just talking about this with Ali Velshy at the board. This was a three-way Democratic primary.

Between Brigitte Brink, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine. Matt Massdem, who was a retired Navy SEAL who worked in the Obama White House who had the endorsement. Of Elizabeth Lacken, who used to hold this seat. And then this young man, William Lawrence, who's a co-founder of the very interesting, very radical sunrise movement, activist movement, climate change activists.

He had an endorsement from Abdul Alsaid and also from Bernie Sanders. And he has prevailed.

“You see Brink and Massdem, corresponding what I think reductively might be described as the moderate vote here.”

And William Lawrence will be the Democratic nominee and the seventh congressional district in Michigan. Do we have the word for the eighth congressional district in Michigan? Now, the eighth congressional district in Michigan. The Democrat here is an incumbent. And the eighth congressional district, the incumbent, is Kristen McDonald Rivet.

And she is running for reelection. This is also a swing district. Again, the eighth congressional district in Michigan. Kristen McDonald Rivet holds that seat right now. I think she went with about 51% of the vote.

Last time around, and this is definitely seen as potential Republican pickup.

which is that Trump made an endorsement in this Republican primary in Michigan 8. He endorsed a man named Amir Hassan. And when Trump made that endorsement, another major candidate in the race on the Republican side, Thomas Smith, got out of the race. But as of right now, I don't know if we can show this board or not, if this is just a mirage.

And the congressional district, the eighth congressional district in Michigan, Tom Smith, retired engineer from GM, who got out of the race. He suspended his race on July 16th. Look, he's got 51% of the vote. He's got a picture of his school photo date.

So Trump endorsed Amir Hassan in this race.

This is a third of the vote in.

This is a get-able district for Republicans, at least they'd like to think so. Again, Christopher McDonald Rivet is the Democratic incumbent here, but despite Trump's endorsement and despite Tom Smith getting out of the race, Tom Smith appears to be doing very well for himself in this congressional district. This appears to be a Republican primary, gone haywire.

Michael Smith, excuse me, Michael Steele earlier was describing the Democratic party benefiting in Michigan from the Republican party, apparently having its pants on backwards. Oh, yes. Not being able to get anything straight in its any of its marquee, primaries, let alone these lesser watched lower on the ballot.

I'm afraid this is a mask fan. So on backwards in their tight. They're tight because they are hurting some people right now, and this is a very good example of a party that has imploded over the last year or so. There's no organizational structure.

There's no discipline. There's no discipline. It's critical.

Why did the Michigan Republican party employ?

Because it was all about the money and the power grab.

“Who's up, who's down, who has access to the White House?”

Who's in favor with Trump? You know, the Trumpers in the Michigan party wanted to run the party. And, you know, the sort of the main stays, the folks who've done the battles and been in the wars. You know, they're like, no, we're not, we're not going to win because this is Michigan. Didn't they have like a two-pops?

They had like a two-pops. They had like a two-pops. They did. Yes, they did. Yes, they did.

Two-pops. They had like two-pops. They had like two-pops. They had like two-pops. They had like two-pops.

They had like two-pops. They had like two-pops. They had like two-pops. Because, as you know, in politics, things get stopped up and messed up, and it doesn't. It doesn't work its way through the system.

And people on the ground still have hard feelings about what happened. And so people aren't working. People aren't helping. They're not organizing. And so you have, you have a candidate who they don't even have a picture for.

All right? Who's not in the race, huh? It's not in the race at 50.9%. Over the Trump-indorse candidate who's sent in his picture. Exactly.

Well, you know what happens in that situation now and correct me if I'm wrong. But if the no-picture gentleman wins, if it holds, then because he has withdrawn, but his name is still on the ballot,

“I think under Michigan Law becomes a vacancy in nomination.”

And so the party will then select the nominee. And that's in the fun. Will ensue again. Yes. Can I say something about this race as Lawrence, right?

So, you know, Will Lawrence is clearly the most progressive candidate, right, in this race. Now, he was the subject of one of my favorite super PAC attack ads of the entire cycle, which I think sort of to me illustrates what I find sort of sort of in cities about the way super PACs have come to operate in these primaries. It was a, the crush maga pack, which was sort of associated with the kind of democratic party leadership that didn't want the most progressive candidate winning in a primary for a swing seat.

Which again, that's not a crazy idea strategically. But what they did was he tried to attack him as like a fake progressive. And they ran an ad that says he invested thousands with Wall Street big oil in data centers. Now, he has a $10,000 retirement account. Total.

Total. He has $10,000 total retirement. He's also like 14 years old. He's very young. But here's why I want to put a fine point on this.

The point wasn't to say to voters. Hey, guys, this guy is too left for this district. It's a bad idea to nominate him. No, instead it was to try to trick voters into being like, no, he's secretly a sellout. You really want the progressive person, it's not that guy who invests in big oil.

“And I think there's something just really insidious about trying to trick voters with super PAC money.”

Which is not to say to come in and be like, hey, here's my argument on the issue of the day. Yeah, I think we saw this in the New York race where the guy who wanted to regulate AI was getting attacked by the AI super PAC for being embedded with AI.

It's like, no, no, you wait a second.

That's not what you actually think.

Yes, you should make your arguments to people straightforwardly.

“You should say, guys, he's too left for the district.”

Or in the case of the odd oil say, we think his policies on Israel are bad. He is not supportive enough of Israel. Instead of everyone going around and sort of using this super PAC money to make the sort of arguments that they don't actually even believe in to try to trick voters. And when you end up with in this case, is it will work as one of the district? Yeah, so maybe I'll call you some better strategies because that argument is not.

It's clearly not informed by the people in the district. Because if you are informed by the people in the district, you would know that that is not the most effective messaging for the district. Because I mean, well, Lawrence, I mean, he ran a very interesting campaign, so did the other candidates. This is a district, though, that you need to win. Livingston County, you got to win eaten, you got to get places in Clinton counties,

Lansing and East Lansing.

The county has become more geographically diverse.

And he has also said some things about black voters are like, I don't know if will Lawrence can cobble together the coalition necessary to beat the incumbent. But we're going to find out shortly. I say that is somebody in terms of like needing better consult the food super PAC. I also used to be a consultant for a super PAC. So, you know, I would say to the, you know, I'll tell us I hadn't Bernie Sanders endorsed him.

They have a theory of the case about why that strand of politics can work in swing districts. And swing states, they do have a theory. And now it's like, okay, test. Time to put the theory to practice because this is again, we'll see. So let's put from theory to practice.

Here we go. If you think that this can work now is the time to show.

Let's check back in with Chris Jensen.

Live from Abdul Us. I had an election headquarters in Michigan where things still sound celebratory. Although I'm guessing since we last booked you Chris things have gotten a little more sense. Let me say this.

“I think a good play list is key to keeping people engaged.”

So that's been helpful here. I don't know who to credit with the play list. But I just got a tax again from inside the room where they're watching the results. And I think this is the reaction to the report on the early voting. 40,000 ballots that came in and Detroit that heavily favored.

Daily see events and what they wrote to me is the Detroit tabulation show. Election day voting that breaking very favorably for them. So they feel good about that. But I also ran into in the crowd a young guy who is actually in charge of their privacy and I was out with him for a little while yesterday.

And I said, you know, what do you have? What's your final the the primary is over? And I mentioned earlier I think that they have 12,000 volunteers. Well, they knocked on 225,000 doors. This guy alone knocked on 21,000 and eight doors.

“Now anybody who follows politics knows that doors knocked are not engagements.”

But they're finding that people not only are answering more, but want to talk more. They are more open because of their own lived experience to having a conversation about health care, about the economy, about the things that Abdul Alphayah is talking about.

And I thought it really interesting when we were having a conversation about sort of this return to the ground game. And I thought it was a very interesting thing. And I thought it was a very interesting thing. And I thought it was a very interesting thing.

And I thought it was a very interesting thing. And I thought it was a very interesting thing. And I thought it was a very interesting thing. And I thought it was a very interesting thing. And I thought it was a very interesting thing.

And I thought it was a very interesting thing. The future constituents have to say to you. And so he feels good about the fact that so many conversations have been had with his young army of volunteers. Many of whom I should say told me yesterday and today that number one,

obviously they believe he's going to win tonight, but that they're willing to do whatever needs to be done. They're not done knocking on doors. They're not done canvassing. So that's a very important thing.

I also heard Ali Vitale's report that the crowd was sending. And there was a point here at which the crowd started to send a little bit. This is a 100-year-old building, the majestic theater. And let's just say that the air conditioning system is challenged. So I thought maybe people were leaving because that I lost my jacket.

Actually there's a bar in quotes out in the lobby, which people have been going to. And I'm reporting this only for you because you made me one of the best cocktails in my life, Rachel Maddo. They have three mocktails, three mocktails,

and the Medicare for All, a hobbyist, which is his campaign slogan.

“They are $6 each, but these folks have been here for four hours.”

They're thirsty, no food available for sale at the bar Rachel. Oh, wow. All right, so we're getting into the limits of human endurance. When you combine the excitement, the endorphins, the suspense, the close quarters, the excellent playlists, the desire to move your feet,

and the lack of air conditioning and no food. You put all those things together and it's a biology test. Here's my fan. Yeah, all right, Chris. All right, well, hang tight, hydrate my friends.

Hydrate will be back with you as we get in more results. That's excellent.

We are told by our election unit, interestingly,

that in Michigan, as we're continuing to watch this very, very close race, we are told by our election unit that we believe there's more of the advance vote, still to count in Michigan than there is day of vote, still to count. So, if the theory of the case is right, that people who voted today broke disproportionately for Alcayad, the fact that there's more advance vote left to count would be good news

to Haley Steven supporters. That said, Alcayad is a little bit ahead of Haley Steven's right now, 56% of the vote in. We're going to get a little more nuance and perspective on this from our friends. Eugene Daniels has been doing his own reporting on this,

including talking with folks on the Haley Steven's campaign. We've got the latest news and numbers from Michigan and that new reporting right after this quick break.

This is down to the line.

Now, you can watch Ali Valshi five nights a week in prime time on MSNow as he takes command of the 11th hour. The breaking news in the last hour, the 11th hour with Ali Valshi, weeknikes at 11 p.m. Eastern on MSNow. It's 1142 p.m. East Coast time and this is the status

in the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan right now. You see that lead for Abdel Alcayad is just over 22,000 votes. Joining us now is Eugene Daniels who's been in touch tonight with the Haley Steven's campaign as they've seen these numbers paying around. Eugene, what are you hearing from folks?

They're filling a lot better, Rachel, than they were filling earlier.

“I think you can always tell us a reporter how the campaigns are filling”

based on whether or not they answer your calls. And at the beginning of the night, they weren't in out. And now they're answering and I will say one of the things that I found really interesting is something that they continued to push was her role vote. Is that at the end of the day, they are actually kind of surprised

about how strong she is doing in the role vote. I also talked to some folks who are the data crunchers, some of the best in the country I have been told. And those are those folks in Michigan. They're anticipating very late, late night, even 4 AM.

Multiple people said including Congresswoman Debbie Dingo, who knows the state better than almost anyone who I just spoke with. And something that's really interesting for folks that are kind of waiting for Wayne County and trying to figure out how to parse through this. Detroit, Derborn, and Derborn Heights.

So Derborn Heights in Derborn, he's probably going to do really well there else I had. Detroit is where she might do really well. If we start seeing numbers, these folks are still in the Rachel, where 20 to 25K, she nets that. That is where you're going to start seeing a really good,

a possibly a really good night for Hayley. In a way that folks really didn't think that that was going to happen. They said, and the Hayley campaign has said this to me, that at the end of the day, the absentee balance that folks have been using, the increased usage of that this time around,

something that she has benefited from.

“Because in those rural areas, TV still matters, right?”

You can't get to all of those areas and shake hands with everyone, and people don't spend a lot of time there, but the amount of money that's spent on TV, their matters. I will just caution folks on the Hayley side who are super excited that her Oakland numbers weren't great, and they know that.

And so if she's able to make that up in Wayne County, she will have a much better night, I think, than people will say either way, this is going to be much closer than the polls we're saying than folks I was talking to on both campaigns earlier today.

I thought it was going to be because at the end of the day, the voters have, as we say all the time, you have the last word, and they have been voting in different ways, and I think people even in Michigan anticipated and have been ready. There's more energy from the rural areas than folks

anticipated, Rachel. And Eugene, this is a question you may not have asked, but just in case, because it's been a discussion we've been having here on set.

or from the Stevens Campaign specifically, about why the polling

might not be necessarily, well, it's not just an individual poll, but sort of the whole last trunch of polls heading into tonight, may have overstated the support for side. Part of the reason I was talking to a couple of people who would, I did ask if this exact same question,

because I think the last poll we saw, those like a 15 point, who's winning by 15 points. And we are a little, if you about that one, and especially in a primary like this one,

“both they said is you have to look at who they're polling, right?”

Who are the folks that they're actually talking to? And some of the times, in some of these polls where he was winning a lot, they were kind of over indexing and kind of taking his theory of the case, that the Democratic base and the more pointed, the folks that were going to vote in this Democratic primary,

were going to be different than in the past primaries. And so that's, you know, what I talked about, who really does the state and said, "I'm pissed at the pollsters." Oh, wow. Okay. Well, yeah, I mean, this has been a recurring theme over the course of my lifetime

covering Democratic electoral outcomes, particularly ones that are surprised. It's not a happy story to tell you, but any time, anybody's telling you that the reason they're going to win is because of all the young people who are turning out to vote for them,

that is often something that you need to check twice before you cut once, because that is, it's, there's a reason that older voters have disproportionate influence in every election. It's because all the voters vote more reliably, the young voters do, and if you're banking on young voters,

you also have to make sure they actually vote, no, they're not just telling you that they will. Eugene, this is totally, totally invaluable. Please stay on the phones. Let us know as soon as you got something.

We'll have you back on the air as soon as we can get you. I will. All right. Thanks, Eugene. Peter, I want to go back to you. I know you had, you've actually got some, some more conversation that you had with voters

in Sagina, Michigan about how they were thinking about the race over, how they were thinking about the other side.

“Can you walk us through some of that that you heard from vote?”

So again, the reason we went to Sagina, Michigan, which is about a hundred miles northwest of Detroit, is because this is a place where they pick political winners. They've got it right five times for President Obama twice, Trump Biden Trump, we went there.

They picked a list of slotkin by nine votes over Mike Rogers four years ago, or two years ago, she ended up winning the state by fewer than 20,000. Here was one of the voices we met these folks. They make popcorn by the way. So you'll, I think you'll enjoy this at this hour.

I'll get a little bit hungry.

Here's what, here's what some of them said in terms of advice

to the Democratic Party broadly. What do you say to those national Democrats right now? What do you say to Democrats? What do you say to Democrats around the country right now who are watching this race closely?

Half faith in their voters, listen to their voters, and consider all aspects, not just big employers, and what those dollars look like for them, but what the small businesses and how what their decisions are doing are impacting us.

So one month in, you're advice anybody looking to start a business right now? Do it scared. You can absolutely be fearful, but you just fear less. It seems like there's a message in there for Democrats right now, right? Absolutely.

Move forward with what we know needs to be done, and stand ten tells deep in it. Stand ten toes deep in it you heard or say they're the just ones.

As she started it, well, first of all here.

Cakes the great. I got you some popcorn if you need. It was made in a factory with nuts just to warning anybody on the set here, okay? Does anybody need me not to open this because I has nuts? Nope.

No, no. Do it. I'll be back in 20 minutes. The influence of what she made there right is she said is a new, is a new small business owner.

She said, we got to be fearless in how we run our business. Yeah. She said the message to Democrats was they need to fear less. They need to lean more in to what they want. And how faith in their voters?

“That's why we've talked about the pulse of much here.”

That's why this was so invaluable beyond the ground with the actual people who are making this decision. You know, that we're talking about tonight. And I spoke to her again within the last couple of hours. She's the one who told me that if Haley Stevens ended up winning, she would have to support Haley Stevens.

But what else was striking that she said in these conversations is, we think about this in big terms and national terms. She views this in terms of effect her family. She was worried about tariffs, the impact on her business. She was worried about affordability.

How much it cost for her daughter who was there. Lovely 20 year old. She was, she was outstanding. She made the popcorn. She had the fear she has for her future.

These were the things that affect them at home. Not the things I think that are sort of, you know, just bigger in the sky topics. The things that really affect them at their kitchen table. And as it turns out at the table where they make this pop.

I was thinking about, I mean, the geography of Michigan right now. And that affecting delicious.

So I'm not going to do this, but it's ready.

“So I'm not going to do this, but it's ready.”

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this. I'm not going to do this.

“This stuff that we think of as like Washington drama in Michigan, it's shoe leather stuff.”

You're right. I said this earlier. I repeat it because she brought it up again. We talked about ice. We talked about immigration enforcement like 10 days ago.

There was a nice crackdown. They are nine construction workers were arrested. She said she passed it just a couple of days ago, drive and home. The car. The engine was still running and she passed the spot.

This stuff is tangible to these people in these communities.

It has real impact and ultimately affects the way that they make their decisions and the way

they vote on nights like tonight. So we'll matter to Democrats, both in the state and nationally, but especially nationally, to look at the narratives that are taking shape coming out of this primary race tonight. How not so much look at the horse race of it all, but look at what moved the voters. But what actually animated them to give a damn, to get up, to take that time off from work

to your points and to actually go stand in a line for however long to the thing, to make it known what they wanted. If you're able to capture that and it was a very important lesson for me in 2009, looking at 2010, watching what voters were saying in New Jersey and Virginia in 2009 gave me a clue of how to begin to talk to voters in 2010 because the message was the same.

And so that reality is going to be true across the board here for a lot of voters across the country, not just in the hamlets of Michigan, but in very small and big places elsewhere. And if they can make that case, again, a case Republicans cannot make. And I said it as a very frustrated Republican with my own parties, I don't say how you guys spent the last two years listening to this idiot in the White House who gave you

nothing to tell voters. Yeah.

“The only thing he wanted to talk about was reflecting pool and a ball room and renovations.”

And renovations, when the country, the only renovation they're trying to do is to their own kitchen tables. These folks, I'm Matt talked about the housing bill recently, the biggest bipartisan effort right recently, the big difference maker for folks as it relates to affordable housing in this country and the president refuses to show up for it.

You know, that stuff. He said it bored him. He said it bored him. Yeah, that's amazing. We're talking about Saginaw County.

What do we have for results in Saginaw County? 8.2% to Haley Stevens, 37.3% of the science, so she's doing very well there again. Still only 45% in, we're still looking at, we've got 61% in the entire state. Abdullah's science lead has increased, he's now closing in on a 30,000 vote lead. He's been between 20 and 25,000 all night.

Let's go to Detroit to Wayne County again, again, almost half the vote is in now, 48% Haley Stevens in the lead, but her lead is narrowed substantially. She has a 12,000 vote lead. Remember, she jumped way ahead in Wayne County. We do believe, however, that the outstanding vote, it's above 600,000 Democratic votes

right now to count. We believe that more of them may be advanced votes than day of votes now. In Wayne County. And the rationale for discussing that is what you just said. The advanced votes tend to be older voters.

The young voters that you're depending on are typically day of voters and up to the sides have been banking on those day of voters. So if it's true that most of the outstanding vote is advanced vote, that tends to favor Haley Stevens. She does have a statewide deficit to overcome because up to the outside is still there.

of Wayne County that we haven't seen yet, including Ham Tramac, which is likely to favor

up to the outside.

“We do have, we have seen a good amount of vote from, from Dearborn and Dearborn Heights.”

Those areas which have come in, they're not just favoring up to the outside.

They're coming in at about 80, 20 in his favor.

“That's where he expected to do very well.”

But again, this area, this actual central part of Detroit, we're still waiting for a good deal of vote, advanced vote and day of vote. Ever since I was young, I've watched people working hard chasing opportunity, making sacrifices, doing everything they can to build a better life.

“And now we're shining a life on what matters most.”

Our economy, our national identity, our democracy, our future.

The stakes have never been higher.

It's all on the line. On the line with a BCM and end-ass weekdays at 12 p.m. Easter on MSNow.