Oscars Preview! Timmy Trouble, a ‘Sinners’ Surge, and a Big Lead for 'One Battle'

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only on Paramount Plus. It is Wednesday, March 11. It's Oscar Week. Craig and I will be there on Sunday. Look for us.

We'll be quickly escorted away from the real red carpet to these side carpet for the non-famous people. It's been a fun. If kind of paint by numbers award season, one battle after another has pretty much dominated all the precursor awards all season,

except for the actor awards, that top honor went to sinners, which some people think could signal it's going to pull off a major upset. It did get the most nominations ever with 16, though 44% of movies that lead the nominations

do not end up winning best picture. One battle in sinners are facing off in a record 11 categories. That makes this one of the most epic contests between two contenders ever. And either way, great for Warner Bros. It's very rare for studio heads like Mike Deluca and Pam Abdi,

who sit there in the crowd knowing they're going to win regardless of which way the Academy leans. I'm a little skeptical of these sinners narrative, but for the real expert opinion, we've got Mike Alaskar back on the show.

Michael is not a professional awards prognosticator. He's actually talent manager at Mosaic, has some great clients in the comedy world. But he's also a long time Oscar watcher and knows this stuff from the inside.

I mean, he actually talks to the voters and goes to the events that aren't necessarily for media. So today we're going to get into the Oscar narratives that Hollywood will be watching. When battle versus sinners,

Timmy versus everybody and the races that could surprise us all. From the ringer and puck, I'm that felony and this is the town. Okay, we are here with Michael Laskar, talent manager, producer, and Oscarologist.

“What is this? How many times have you been on the show now?”

I think this is my fifth actually. Five timer. You're a five timer guest. Craig, we need a jacket like SNL if you get in the five timer club. It's bright orange and hideous.

Yeah, it's got a picture of honor to armists on the back. I'll wear it on the next the next time we come on. It's you and Lucas and Rich Greenfield. Exactly. A very exclusive club.

Amazing company. Are you kidding me? All right. So it's Oscar week. We are talking about the big narratives.

You as the consummate insider, you not only pay attention to the Oscars. You also talk to the voters a lot. Unlike some of these prognosticators out there that claim to be experts.

So I want to go to the big narratives this season. And we got to start with Timmy, right? Timmy, the shallow May. Can we just first of all dispel this stupid narrative that he blew his Oscar by criticizing ballet and opera?

Yes, that has been dispeled. First of all, all that happened after the voting was done. And also, if you watch the interview with him in Wakanda, hey, it's a little taken out of context. And yeah, Timmy, Shalame, is a genius brilliant actor

who everyone wants to work with. He's amazing the movie.

He was amazing last year.

I thought he was going to win last year actually. He's doing fine.

“I think what's at play here is a couple key things, right?”

One of the big things a lot of people have covered is true. Is that when there is a phenom style young male actor who just explodes into the business. And I'll give you three examples. Dustin often out with Chino, Leonardo DiCaprio.

It has taken them a very long time to get their eventual Oscar, right? So Dustin often, in 1967, graduate. He doesn't win till 79. His fourth nomination of Kramer versus Kramer. The Chino, in 1972, the godfather.

Dustin went till his eighth nomination, 92. Instead of a woman, then of course Leo, people forget this. Who know Leo is worked today, nominated 93 as a kid. For what's eating Silver Grape wins on his fifth nomination in 2015 for the revenue. I would put Timmy into that category of these phenom style actors,

where I think people look at him and they say, you're so great. You can do anything. You're going to keep doing this for a while. And maybe we're going to make you way a little bit.

In a way they don't for the actresses. Kyle wrote about this. Kyle was on the show talking to us. But he was the favorite. And I was so confident that his campaigning and the narrative was so good.

I actually switched my vote for him. I was Team Leo. And I went to Timmy right around when it all went to shit. And people started saying, oh, it's actually going to be neither of them. It's going to be Michael B. Jordan.

“I think that brings in the second narrative.”

And the second narrative is twofold, which is first of all,

Marty Supreme, which I thought was great, has just lost all of its momentum to one battle in centers. Those are the only two movies that have any kind of way behind them. But I think the second thing is that we've seen this trend in the last five, six, seven years, where really celebrated movies have been,

have gotten many, many nominations. And then ones zero wins. So in 2023, Banshee said nine nominations, zero wins. Tahr had six nominations, zero wins. By the way, a lot of people thought K-Planchet was going to win that Oscar.

And she didn't kill her as a flower moon. I think over 10 or 11, and Irishman over 10 and 2019. So I think what's happened is that Marty Supreme, which I thought was a great movie, and by the way, you can argue, I think we're not going to cover all the categories. Clearly people think that Francine Maysler, who's a legend,

and part of the reason why the casting Oscar got invented is going to win for centers. And I think that would be a great win. But I mean, you could also argue, Marty Supreme should win for casting. That's got the most inventive casting of the category.

It's a wonderful bug that crap out of you.

I thought he was great. I thought he was great. I thought he was great.

“But so I think you have that momentum loss of the movie.”

That it's only shot as to win for Timmy. And another thing I looked at, and this is like, I'll admit, it's a little flimsy. I was testing this out on some friends this weekend. I went back to 1990, and from 1990 to 2025,

there are only best actor wins, where the actor is the only Oscar win for the movie. Those wins are basically like Denzel for training day, but Chino for center of a woman, Nicholas Cage for leaving Las Vegas, Philsian Rafer for Capote. And what those wins are, is they're either kind of like a nostalgia.

It's time when, hey, we didn't give Denzel a Malcolm X 92. Let's give it him for training day in 2001. Or what it is, is it's like, oh, my God, Philsian Rafer gave the best performance I've ever seen, which is Capote. And I think that Timmy is somewhere in the middle of that,

because it's not really his time because he's not going to be his best that he's ever going to do.

Right. And ultimately, even though he's so amazing in the movie,

it's just an incredibly loaded category. I mean, I've talked to people that are voting for Ethan Hawk. Another thing I was thinking about. Or Wagner Mora has a lot of the international business. I mean, Sean Phenasy has been on that.

I don't know where he's going to land on Thursday when they announce their picks, but he's been on that hill for a while. Wagner Mora was unbelievable. I loved that movie so much. What's interesting about this category, thinking about it this morning, you have four child phenoms that have become men in the category.

We may have Michael B on the wire, right? And now he's this incredible, you know, adult actor, Meditan Hawk in explorers, you know, back in the mid-80s before like dead poet society. And of course Leo and Timmy.

And so you could argue that it's a lot of their time. Now Leo is the elder states for now. He's barely campaigned. I'm assuming he's coming back from Prague from this course as he filmed to go to the show.

But I don't know you will be there. He will be there. He's got you.

“You know, and I think, I mean, I'm very,”

I loved everything this year. I love sinners. One battle was my favorite movie. And I think Leo is just unbelievable in that movie. I think what happens here.

And this is going to hurt Timmy is that increasingly the voters like a movie and just vote it down the line. Yes. And we saw that last year with the Nora,

where there was a lot of chatter about other categories going to other people. And it turned out Michael Madison won, Sean Baker ended up winning three Oscars. Like it's, I think the question is,

our voters going to fall on the side of sinners or one battle and vote it down the line. Well, I would say two things, which is I think I still believe the voters will lean towards one battle for best picture, which is why I think they're veering towards Michael B. Jordan for best after because it's a way to kind of, you know, divide it a little bit.

So if you had to vote, you would say Michael B. I think he's going to win a win. I think he's going to win a win. Because the count, the count she odds, I was going to put some money on Timmy,

because he's like only 30% at this point. Yeah, you can make some money. Yeah, you can make some money. Craig is betting on Timmy. Craig is like an hotel room in Vegas right now.

Just, like, yes, he's going to be sweating these overnight. No, you can make some money. I'm opening a count left and right to bet on Timmy. Yeah. Well, the odds have just changed so much.

And a lot of them changed after the voting window closed. Well, they changed after the sag awards when Michael B. One. And there were a few days left in voting. And then after the whole controversy came up, I think people in the real world don't recognize that voting was over.

And they're, they're going against Timmy. Well, and there's also a big difference between Timmy's odds on a book like Fandel, which has, like, its own equation to kind of come up with the odds versus Kaoshi, which is public influenced. Yeah.

And the public thinks Michael B. Jordan is going to win much more than Vegas thinks Michael B. Jordan.

I mean, it is fun now that Kaoshi and all these things are betting on everything, although they're betting on certain things. It should not be that on, like, you know, wars, obviously.

“But people have to remember that the only people who vote in who matter are in the academy.”

And so this is just kind of like you said with the public things. And also reminder, there's not a single of the precursor awards that in any real way, mathematically match the academy body. I was saying to Craig earlier, there's 150,000 people in sag that can vote. I don't know how many people voted obviously.

They're 1,300 actors, you know, in the actress branch of the academy. So, and a lot of them are international and sag is heavily US. That's exactly what I did not vote for any of these foreign films that got into the Oscars. So, yes, I agree people put too much credence in the sag winner, which is why I think the Michael B. Jordan momentum is a little bit mistaken.

You can be right, but I'll give you one more theory. And I will, too, my horn, because this is the way I said to you last year. Everybody had to me last year, and I came on your show and picked Mikey. And it was simply because I felt like if you saw the movies, Mikey was in every inch of the film, obviously.

And TV is really only in half the movie. I think something that's been neglected in this whole narrative is that Michael B. plays two characters, and he plays them unbelievably well. I mean, there's all these, like, quotes where, like, the other actors are like, I could see the back of Michael B. Jordan when he'd walk into a room,

and I could tell if he was smoke or he was stacked.

“And so, I think when you look at the cumulative effect of people love that movie,”

it's the most nominated film of the night, I'll come back to that stat in a second.

And he played two people, and he did it so convincingly. And he's somebody that we've loved for so long. I think it's just, I mean, it would be so fascinating. They'll never do it. This would be one of the most fascinating races ever to actually see the vote,

Tally. Because I think all five guys have a real shot. Please, Academy. Someday. Maybe a hundred years.

We talked about it on the show. They need to release the vote, Tally's, and they need to do a countdown on the show of the top ten movies, and have them stand up, and somebody gets eliminated American Idol style, and then the final three are on stage and the winner is crowned.

Why? Why can we not do that? Tally, go fidgety YouTube. Maybe it's coming. Maybe it's coming.

Maybe it's coming. So let's talk about that momentum. The one battle versus sinners conundrum here. I don't think it's conundrum. I think that it's going to be one battle down the wall.

I can clearly agree. I mean, I basically have right now one battle winning six,

and sinners winning four. On the top of my head, I feel like one battle is going to win. Picture, director, adapted screenplay, supporting actor, editing, and cinematography. Those will be at six. The supporting actor is good for Craig.

He bet on Sean Penn. Yeah, I think it will be Sean Penn. And then sinners, I think, would be actor, original screenplay, original score, and casting. So six to four. Now that could vary.

Obviously, you know, if all the sudden sinners wins editing, that's going to be a huge bell weather that maybe it's going to sinners. If Delroy surprises, you know, if they surprise the supporting actress potentially, which they could, although I feel like Teada and Amy Madigan are really the two people that are battling in that one.

“And so I think, I think we'll have to remember.”

I went back actually to 2000 from 2000 to 2025, 25 years of Oscars, only 10 of those 25 years did the most nominated film win best picture. So oftentimes, the most nominated film, it's simply because it's a period piece. Now, to sinners credit, because it broke the record, even if they hadn't added the casting category, it would have broken the record.

The record was 14, a couple of movies have it. It would have gotten 15 without casting. So you have to give it all this credit. I mean, it's been-- There is widespread support among all the branches.

Yes. And I have to point out that Ludwig and his wife's three and our parents are preschool. So, you know, you got to root for them. They're great people. Well, he's winning. He's winning. He's going to win for a regional score.

That would be what is second. Is there openheimer? He won for Black Panther and Oppenheimer. Oh, wow. Yeah. No, he's very nice guy.

Very nice. And people love him and he came up in the comedy world like on community. And he's unbelievably talented. So I think, yeah, and again, look, people pointed this out. Phenic, he's talked about it a lot. The amount of precursor, when you throw in like the critics awards,

plus all the award shows outside of sack and ensemble, which I get to in a second. What one battle was already won, it would be completely unprecedented if it lost best picture. And the thing on sack ensemble, what sack does often is they just vote for literally what they think is the best ensemble. So literally last year, they voted for conclap. They voted for Black Panther.

They voted for the Travis cargo seven. The sack ensemble and they didn't vote for sinners last week. But the sack ensemble winner is not that predictive for best picture. So also, sack best actor, they voted for Timmy last year and he lost. That's correct. That's absolutely right.

So I think one battle can be stopped. Look, both movies are brilliant. I love sinners so much. I love one battle. They're both about much more, you know, they both have a lot to say about today's America.

The past of America, you know, what's coming and so forth.

One thing I'm thinking about a lot is that there's a lot of fabric, incredible, you know,

To name a few. That's the only thing right here.

Well, Rob Reiner sadly was never nominated.

He was nominated for the DGA many times for his brilliant movies. He's clearly going to be celebrated on Sunday. They've already announced they're going to do some stuff to honor him. But I'm talking about like Robert Almond Kubrick, Hitchcock, Norman Jews, and Sidney Limet, a lot of huge names that never ever won a best drag for Oscar.

I cannot believe that that could be PTA. This is his time.

“And I think that's just going to power the whole thing.”

Like there's been a lot of splits in the 21st century. I don't see there being a split. And when you talk to people who love one battle, they like worshiped one battle. And it's going to have a lot of support. Sidney has a lot of those people too.

The whole backstory of Googler insisting on the copyright, did everybody saying it was going to fail, and then it becoming a huge hit. That's good for that movie. I agree.

And obviously it's going to be a great Sunday for Warner Bros. and for Pam and Mike. And you know, if somebody will have to do some kind of pool on how many times if David's as long as it's thanked? Because if they haven't been having a good show,

they haven't been thanking them. I'm just reporting. Somebody mentioned his name at the Globes. I wrote in my newsletter that he was not thanked at the Globes. And I was hopefully reminded by a David's as-law fan.

That may or may not have been connected to David's as-law. That he was thanked once by the one battle producer. But yes, that's right. I don't believe that that will likely happen. Look, and by the way, we're being, we're not trying to be mean.

Part of it is that these people don't have a relationship with David's as-law. They have a relationship with Pam and Mike. You know, all the other stuff that's going along going aside,

you know, they never had a relationship with the way they people have relationships

like Bob Eiger when you work in like Disney. It just is what it is. All right, so is there a one battle weakness? The one battle weakness would be if there's going to be a split and all of a sudden you have it just picking up.

Like, it's going to wind director and it's going to wind it to after it.

“And I believe it's going to wind editing.”

Now, if all son doesn't wind editing, you're going to know that it's going to be a sinner's night and it's going to flip. And sinners is going to go from four wins, the four I named. And add editing, maybe it picks up one of the supportings. Well, that's the thing is they often do supporting actress first or second.

Yes. So if they don't win supporting for one battle, then are all bets off? A previous ostrich helicopter cast that I think is very similar to this. And I'm going to get real nerdy and probably bore you is the 2000 year Oscar. 2001 was the show, but it's the 2000 Oscars.

It was the Gladiator traffic year, okay. And that year traffic is not made for five Oscars and it winds four. And so in the early in the night, it's like boom, it winds best morning actor for Benicio. Boom, it winds editing for Steven Marionny. Now it winds a downstream labor Steven Gagan.

And now it winds director for soda bird. By the way, nominated twice in the category for Brockovich and Brockovich and traffic. Gladiator ends up win. And not even under his own name. What do you mean?

Does he soda bird get it under Peter Andrews? He didn't eat in edit traffic, Steven Marionny. No, he dp's under dp's under dp's under Peter Andrews. And so it was not known, even though the photography in that movie is brilliant. So meanwhile, Gladiator early in the night winds sound, visual effects, costume design.

And then, now this would, this would connect to sinners winning. And then Russell Crowe wins best actor. He'd been nominated the year before for the insider genius performance loses to Kevin Spacey in American beauty. And now he wins for Gladiator and then Gladiator wins best picture of the night. So they win five traffic wins four. You could have a night like that where you could have one battle come out fast.

And then maybe the Michael B of it all powers sinners. I don't think that will happen, but again, these are the, I mean, one thing I'm thinking about right now, there's only four movies that really likely will win more than one Oscar. One battle sinners, K-pop and Frankenstein. Everything else is going to be one. People think like F1 would take sound, avidartic visual effects, stuff like that.

“So it's just, it's all about one battle in sinners, which, by the way, not to sound like a nerd, I think is amazing.”

I, you know me, I mean, I'm all in on movies, all in on movies being in theaters. I think this was a great year for movies of the 10 movies nominated. I could name 10 others that were great. So this is good. Well, you're forgetting Jesse Buckley for actress. She's a shoe in.

She's a shoe. And yeah, but that will be him. That's one off. That's, it's only going to win one is my point. Yes, she's the shoe in of the night.

I mean, Rose Burn was incredible. There's definitely a lot of support out there for her.

But she's definitely the shoe in. So, you know, I think the, you know, on supporting actress. I mean, people are still waffling. Is Amy Madigan is a talented one. One thing I thought, and this would connect pitch on Penn. You know, the supporting winners oftentimes are villains.

Ruth Gordon, famously one for Rosemary's baby back in 68. Obviously on the supporting actress side, you have a lot of ledger. He ledger, Joe Pashy, Kristoff Waltz. So I rewatched one battle last week on a plane. And you live in the moment you're on Sean Penn's face when Tiana puts the gun on him.

And I think, oh, yeah, when I left the movie theater, I said, Penn is winning. Yeah, but that, but he wasn't really that, that kind of heralded for much of the season. It's only recently, people have come around.

“I think what happened was everybody came out of that theater and said,”

This is a Donzo level legendary performance. He's going to win a third Oscar. He's won two 2003 Mystic River 2008 milk. Then the narrative was wait a minute. The Nesio is even better because Benicio was so subtle and I thought Benicio was Jean's that movie. And the narrative was, yeah, exactly.

Then the narrative was, oh, Stella and it's Stella's time. He wins the Golden Globe.

But Sean Penn, I mean, again, I always look at it like if you really think hard and long about the movies,

there's no way to deny how great Sean Penn is in that movie and how wild a performance it is and how he holds the whole movie together. You don't think that having two Oscars hurts him. I don't think it really matters. I mean, I look, it's like live it of this way. I don't think Cable and Chet lost. What would have been her third Oscar in 2023 for Tar?

Because people didn't want Cable and Chet to have three Oscars. She's a genius. I just think that Michelle Yo. That it, you know, it's sweat that was the mania of that year. It didn't hurt, I'm a stone for four things. But I do believe that if Leo had never won an Oscar,

this season would be very different. On a percent, but he has he's so unbelievable in that movie. And I said to Craig, it's so funny. We're talking about how we'll not name names. There are certain actors in Hollywood who don't want to look their age and certain actors who are willing to look their age.

And I think that one thing that's great about that movie is that Leo's like, I'm 53 and I can look 53. But I don't know, he's 50 or 50. Okay, 50. Trust me, I want to hear these things.

But for the point is, at the end of the movie, when he gets his iPhone, he's 51. He's 51. When he gets his iPhone and he winks into the camera, you're like, man, Leo, he's still got it.

You know, it doesn't matter if he's got great hair. And if he's got scraggly, you know, go to you. Yeah, yeah. I thought Leo was, I mean, that to me was a Jack Nicholson, Rob Mjvol, RAP, Gene Hackwin, level 1970s.

So he's not going to win. No, because he's the elder statesman and he hasn't campaigned. I don't really think you have to campaign quite frankly. He's done Q and A, so he showed up at the DJ Awards. He's been around for him.

I think he's done stuff. He has. But I guess what I'm saying is, I think there's a difference. And I'm not even convinced campaigning totally works.

“I think there's a difference between doing what you should be doing”

and what you're doing to supporting movie that is a likely best picture. When our verse is going to like everything. You know what I mean? Yeah. There's certain people like, yeah.

Yeah, who are like, you know, I'm going to go to every single cocktail party, every producer's house, every someone. You know, those are typically the people that do not already have a profile. They're the ones who are introducing themselves to a town over the season. The Lupin and Yango's, the Eddie Redmay.

Well, you know what it would be? What Mikey Madison. Yes. And famously, and he thanked her in his speech when he won a tattoo screenplay. It was like, believe up, Thorne in '96.

He thanked Elizabeth Taylor. Because like, people like Elizabeth Taylor were like getting him out there. You know, they were throwing parties for him. Because they love singblings. There are academy influencers that are connectors.

And we know them where they throw parties and they introduce you. And they sort of, it's the LA version of a social society where you are welcomed in and introduced around town.

And ultimately it helps you win.

To be honest, this is why I voted for Kate Hudson. And I, I won money on her because I knew she would get nominated because she has that internal industry support system. People have known her since she was a kid. And she, be her family and be working for 25 years. She is part of the community.

And that's how she does matter. As the international as the voters are, it's still matter. Well, and she's unbelievable in that movie. I've known her for a long time through mutual friends. And randomly was part of a group FaceTime on the morning of pronunciation.

And she, that's a really fun thing to see. I've been a part of it a couple times for clients for friends. Seeing somebody like two minutes after an nomination is unbelievable. They're just like, yeah, people care. It's the greatest morning of their life.

I mean, it's funny because for all my clients, I get these. I get like 10 emails a day, not anymore because it's done. Where it's like, Mikey Madison is presenting any Madigan in weapons. You know, in the movie, the four seasons. Yeah, this year, the winner for that one is Hamden.

I swear to God, every single night, there was a screening introduced by some filmmaker. I mean, they got Seth Rogan to do a screening for Chloe. They had, you know, they had, did he feel new? I mean, they went, they went above and beyond because they knew Hamden was not a movie that you would want to watch on the portal. Yeah.

You want to watch it in the theater where you get past the tough stuff and get to the end. Yeah. Well, that's something we should talk about speaking over the portal.

“So, you know, one of the new things this year is that when you vote, you have to, like,”

basically check these boxes that you've seen in movies.

Right.

Yeah, I have done a bit of a straw poll. And it's interesting. The good news is people are really trying to respect the honor system. And what I have found is that there's either people who actually watch everything and watch the shorts and, like, they're voting for everything.

“And they take it really seriously, which I think is by and large a lot of people.”

Because people do take it very, it's a real honor to be in the academy. Here's some done. I watch everything. Yeah. Yeah.

Oh, a lot of people do.

And then there's the second level of people who are not watching the shorts or the dogs,

but they're doing the marquee ones because they've seen enough of those movies. And then I have talked to people who did not vote because they were busy shooting stuff. They had a crazy year. They were out of the country and they were, like, I didn't see enough. And I don't want to.

I don't think it's right that I vote. And so more so than usual, because of this new system. Yes. Yes. And so I think it's actually good.

You know, I mean, they're not trying to look. You can cheat the system. I mean, you can just say you watched everything. Yeah. But I think maybe you did.

Maybe you went to a screening at a, you know, at a public event. Yeah. You don't have to, you don't have to do it on the portal. If you do it on the portal, it, like, checks the box for you. But my point is I think what's good is people mind large or taking it seriously.

And maybe I shouldn't vote for something. If I, if I hadn't seen all the nominees or seen enough of the movies to really know. But do you think that will change the outcome here? Because a cynic would say that what it's going to do is it's going to prevent the group think that permeated before. I mean, I mean, people would just go by what the community is talking about or ads they have seen or podcasts like this.

“And just vote across the board for sinners because that's what everybody is talking about.”

Even though they haven't seen the other movies. Everybody I've ever talked to every year, you know, that I've had, you know, friends and colleagues voting. People take it pretty seriously. And I think it's not a group. You know, listen, there are, I thought to people who are like,

I'm voting for Michael B because I think one battle is going to win most of the other words. I talked to somebody who is voting for train drinks cinematography because like, hey, it could win cinematography. The cinematography is unbelievable in that movie. You know, and that is going a little bit against the norm because people think, well, it's either one battle or sinners, sinners had all the different lenses and aspect ratios and that DP was absolutely brilliant.

It's not a lot of press. And so I think that people just, you know, they're trying to vote where they think is special. They're trying to sometimes vote a bit of a variety of like, well, I'll kind of like spread it around a little bit. I genuinely think people take it seriously. But you don't think that the new rule could produce a shocker because certain categories will have so few people voting in them.

No, because no, I don't because I think ultimately people take it seriously.

And I think enough people do. I mean, I don't think they ever release the numbers or how many people actually show up to vote. But I think people take it. Academy released the numbers. Well, also the thing too, and I know that there was like some belly aching a couple of years ago when the portal came.

And now there was so announced with the academies like not doing screenings. But I mean, come on, it's 2026. Like we all watch everything on our, you know, and most of the people that's phased to most of the people have seen those movies already. Yeah.

That's right. That's right. A lot of have it, but most have especially in LA. So all right, last question. Give us some big shocker that we're all going to be.

Whoa, but you're going to be like, you know what? I knew it was going to happen. One thing you could do for all the people out there listening. Maybe do two different pool sheets. You know, your, your party on Sunday.

You could go rose burn on best actors, even though Jesse's a lot of the night people worship that. That performance. No, no. No. Not happening.

I've seen it. I've seen it. I've seen it. I've seen it. It was a contender and other categories, maybe.

But this is the way to honor that movie. I completely agree with you. I'm just saying if you're looking for surprises. Okay. Here's a surprise.

And this is not sexy. Two birth scene. Here's a, I just got two birth scenes in the movie. And watching for kid die, I get it. Yeah.

Here's a surprise that that would not shock me and few people have seen it. But it got a lot of nominations. It was on the early committee ballots, Sirot for sound. Because if you've seen Sirot, the whole movie is sound. It's like the craziest, like soundscape you've ever seen.

Yeah. Because that's kind of the point of the movie. It's like when, what was the Holocaust movie? Zone of interest. Yes.

Zone of interest. That one sound, right? Yes. I mean, people think it'll be F1 because F1 obviously, you know, room room. But I think Sirot could upset there.

That's really it. I mean, it's going to be sinners or one battle. It's not like, you know, international film.

“I think there was a lot of push for secret age.”

And a lot of people talk about the Brazilian contingent. The academy, but one thing to point out is that.

One thing I always love about the Oscars is that you can always get new information

by the nomination day. And the big thing we learned of the nomination day is a son of a value was stronger than we thought. Because remember, I got no sag nominations. Everyone's like, oh, sag doesn't want to do international film.

And blah, blah, blah. And then all of a sudden it gets too best for any house nominations. And you can sure get some to best director over Guillermo. So central value is a lot stronger than people were giving a credit for. And I feel like in the international film,

there's almost this feeling of like, well, it's international film.

Because some English and Stalin and Al. And even though Stalin is not American, these business or any American films and American TV.

“And so I think that could win secret age.”

It would be the runner-up.

But that whole category is amazing.

All those foreign films. It was just an accident is an incredible film. Kind of lost some steam. I don't really know why. Great movie.

All right, well, I'm going to, I'm going to start a calcium for whether Timothy Schallemey will perform opera or ballet on the show. Exactly. Exactly. All right, thank you, Michael. Appreciate you coming.

Welcome. Thank you. Thanks for having me. We're back with the call sheet. Craig, how much are you following the Jeff Shell saga at Paramount?

“Typically, wouldn't be something that I care about.”

You've been writing that a lot. It was in your newsletter Monday night, which is great. The people should subscribe to. If they're not yet. But thank you.

Kim Masters got into kind of all the questionable hiring situations going on at Paramount right now. Yeah, the Shell one is particularly interesting because he is the president of Paramount. And he was brought in by their investor, Red Bird, Jerry Cardinal. It was on the show.

And he's the former CEO of NBC Universal. And he left that job because he had some allegations against him of harassment. He got into it with a CNBC anchor who made some claims against him. Was fired from that job.

And then picked up by first Red Bird and then installed at Paramount as the president.

But now he's in this bizarre saga where this professional gambler, guy named RJ Sipriani, has essentially made a claim that Jeff hired him or was using him as his personal PR consultant. They were introduced through a lawyer that they share. And that Shell had made some comments and texts to him that revealed company secrets,

specifically related to Paramount South Park deal. They're USC deal. And he actually sued earlier this week. He sued Paramount and Shell claiming that he's owed a bunch of things. But in particular, that Shell agreed to make a reality show or a show, not a reality show.

A show based on a Spanish language show that this guy's wife was involved in. It's a bizarre situation because this accuser is not a reputable guy. He's done some whistleblowing in the past, but he's like a professional gambler in Vegas. He's been arrested there, although the charges were ultimately dropped. And he's kind of become involved in a number of different scandals.

But the shell of it all, like now Paramount is investigating. And my prediction today is I don't think that Jeff will survive this.

“I think ultimately he's going to be asked to leave or step down from Paramount.”

Why is this one different? As Kim wrote about, Paramount has a lot of questionable ties right now. People like John Lasseter, they promised to make a movie with Brett Ratner. If they were to make Rush Hour 4 again, why is Shell different? Is it because it's more of a threat financially to the company and the shareholders could be upset?

Well, first of all, they are a public company.

And if it is shown through this investigation that he leaked secrets to this guy and told him things that Violate his fiduciary duties to the company, then I think they would feel like they need to let him go. His past situation where he already came into the company with one strike against him. This would be another kind of questionable judgment moment, although very different from the sort of harassment allegations of the past. And I think it's one of those where this guy, both can be true.

This accuser can be sketchy. He could be trying to extort the company. He could be trying to get money out of them and raise a ruckus for his own personal benefit. But it also could raise these issues that rise to the level of something that Paramount has to do with it. I don't know if it's going to that what the actual investigation by Gibson done is going to show.

But I think that he's been so tainted now that given everything going on in the work ahead for Paramount, that Ellison is probably going to cut ties. It doesn't help. I don't think that a lot of people internally at Paramount haven't loved Shell. There's some resistance to him even outside of all this stuff going on.

And you know what, he's he was brought in as it as a deal guy. He has experience in sports and TV and movies from running NBC Universal. He had the right background and maybe he survives, but I do think that they're going to ultimately end up cutting ties here. If he does get cut, where does he land next? I'm speaking like he said he's like an NFL player.

I know. He's going to go to the bank. He'll probably go to the bank. He'll maybe end up supporting the bank. Do you need help actually?

Yeah, especially from a deal making standpoint. But where will he land if he leaves Paramount? I don't know, but I'm guessing it will not be a public company. Because two strikes against you and you probably don't don't end up getting hired by a public company.

He's got the right background.

It's just these judgment laps. Not great. Not a great look. All right.

That's the show for today.

“I want to think my guest Michael Lasker.”

Mr. Craig Horlebeck. Are to the John Jones.

I don't want to thank you.

We'll see you a couple more times this week.