Outside of Pagachar, like who were the main GCP contenders here?
Well, you know, I mean, it's funny that we just talked about Pagachar and then
Rob Lich, you know, here's a guy who, he won this race four times and if we're being honest, we're not even giving him the slightest chance to win this race with Pagachar here. Then on top of that, you know, he had, he didn't have a great season for the moment, you know, was definitely not at the level that we have seen from Pagachar, Lich. That's not forget, you know, we go back two years ago, Pagachar was still one of the Vlta in 2024.
When we really welcome back to the move, I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Yohan Bernill. We are breaking down the Vlta. What we think we're going to project the 2026 Vlta Spaniac, go through what the course is like, who the main contenders are and how we think the stage when battles are going to play out, we'll do a little outcome segment at the end where Yohan and I pick our winner for the overall. I don't think that's going to be a lot of,
suspense about that and we'll also give our winner for the stage one time trial in Monaco. But Yohan just to get people up to speed. If you don't know what Lav Vlta Spaniac is, it is the two at France, but in Spain, the two are up Spain, 21 stages over 23 days, two, two rest days, just like the two are starts in Monaco with the time trial. And then we kind of work our way through France, get back to Gothera and Dora on stage four. We're back in Spain by stage five. And then we go
quickly into the south of Spain, which we've neglected for maybe the last couple of Vlta's, at least last year's Vlta. The top line news, though, here is Tadith Pagachas doing the race, the best rider, potentially in the history. The best rider in the sport, potentially in the
history of the sport, why is he doing the Vlta? Is he's never won the Vlta? Anyone wants to win it,
so he can become the ninth rider to win all three grand tours. Yohan, how do you think Tadith
“Pagachas is going to do with this Vlta? Yeah, well, I think first of all, you know, great that”
Pagachas is back at Vlta. I have a few days ago, I was sent like an overview of, was it 2000s, 19 that he lived at Vlta? Yeah, it was really nice to see those images back. And man, he already won three stages then, three mountain stages, finished third overall, looked, you know, still like a kid, but he was already incredibly incredibly good. That Vlta was won by Primoz Rogelich, one of the four Vlta wins of Rogelich, and so was Primoz Rogelich. And he
certain stages he was putting the pressure on Rogelich already then. So we're now seven years later, imagine how much he has improved. And the whole Peloton has improved, of course, but I mean,
having him at the start, it's kind of, you know, it's a race for second again,
“which is not necessarily a bad thing, I think, you know, I think we can see a very interesting race.”
But yeah, I think there's no, there's no way Rogelich loses this race unless he crashes, or he gets sick, a crash, I don't think even a crash. If it's not a bad crash, it won't stop him. But still, you know, it's the third round tour, usually it's the one that is the most difficult to be motivated or riders for teams for ourselves, even. But, but I think it's going to be, I think it's going to be a good race. And it's me just went, you know, together over a few of this
stages. And then it's it's really hard. And it's it's it's mount, a lot of mount stages, a lot of uphill finishes, almost no stages for sprinters or for pure sprinters at least. And then it's a question of, I think the question is today, when we'll pull that chart aside to go like in a decisive move and we'll he then be able to control himself and just manage the difference. I saw somewhere a bit of an interview where today before the race and where he says that he might have to
save some energy in this delta because he also needs to think about the world championships. He already did that in the tour, by the way, save some energy for the delta. Now he starts the delta and he's talking about saving energy for the world. So
“listen, if that's the case, I think it's good news for a lot of other riders and a lot of”
teams and that that means that breakaways will probably have a chance to make it to the finish in some stages. No? Yeah, in theory, you would think that I'm in a way we probably should believe him because I think with what we should like really put into context is
Pagature taking it easy and saving energy for the world's might be him when h...
of six, seven, eight. You know, if you really wanted to, he could win a lot of stages at this race.
“I do think they probably circled a few. I personally think he's going to come out and try to win”
this race as early as possible. He'll probably have a strong, really time trial. He'll probably put time into people early, like even we looked at stage four quite quite difficult stage, 104 kilometers in Endora, multiple cat one at climbs and then probably go on cruise control in the final week, yeah, which will open things up for stage hunters. So, but even like stage 20, so hard, I guess he just got to win that by default. You know, that would be a concern,
but kind of interesting to go back to 2019. Now now you have me going back to a memory lane. That is wild to think how different thing, you know, it feels recent, like Prima Swag, which was there. Tadipagato is there. They're both at this race. Things are incredibly different,
though, just seven years later. And if you look at 2019, you know, Pagatya gets third at that race,
win three stages on stage 10. After the time trial, Ragatya really put a lot of time into him in the first week on these. It was like really steep, explosive finishes. And Ragatya was so good at that at the time. In the time trial, put a lot of time into Pagatya in the time trial. Has a three minute five second lead on stage 10? By stage 21, Pagatya has actually cut that lead. So it's two, he gets third by 255. So he takes 10 seconds
out of Ragatya in the final 11 stages. Right then, we should have known what we were dealing with. And then, of course, he goes on them in the tour the next day. But outside of here. Yeah, and not the next day. That would have been a really weird schedule. It was a weird schedule in 2020. That would have been unusual. But outside of Pagatya, like who were the main GCP contender share. Well, I mean, it's funny that we just talked about
Pagatya and then Ragatya. You know, here's a guy who he won this race four times. And before being honest, we're not even giving him the slightest chance to win this race with Pagatya here. Then on top of that, you know, he didn't have a great season for the moment. You know, was definitely not at the level that we have seen for criminals, Ragatya. Let's not forget, you know, we go back two years ago. Primus Ragatya, what's still won the Valtam in 2024.
“So I think, and at the top of that, he was run over by a car.”
Didn't have a good preparation for this race, you know, decided very last moment if he was able to do race it. So, but we have to put him in that group. I put a group together here of five names, Spencer, six names, actually, between who I think the podium will be decided. You know,
and in no particular order, I think we have Felix Gal, who finished second in the Valtam.
In the 0, recently one, two of Burgos is first ever G.C. when, as a professional, sounds strange, but that's the case. So, we have Primus Ragatya, of course. We have Matthias Kiel Moser, who just comes off a great tour of France. The question is, now, how's the recovery? We have Richard Carapas, who we don't know if he's going to go off for stages or G.C. or both. I think personally that Carapas will be good, because you normally when Carapas gets off
“a ground tour in great shape, and he showed in the last week he was, I think, the second”
best rider, probably uphill. Maybe, maybe Racco was, but anyways, he was in great shape. So, I think Carapas, he should go off for G.C., right at the end of the podium. Then, two riders that I don't know, but Oscar Omni, I think he has a great opportunity here, didn't do the tour of France, showed some good condition in the tour of Burgos, and it seems like his condition is still rising. And then, you know, just for the sake of it, because it's the
pure Spain, and the guy usually has performed his best at the tour of Spain and I think we have to consider him as a top five candidate. Also, although, you know, the last few years,
something happened in the first 32 seconds. Mom's stage, she eats time, and
disappointment, and then he got a bounce back and tried to go for stage events. But I think, other than these guys, Spencer, I don't see anybody else, I don't know if he sees anybody else, could potentially be up there for G.C., if I'm talking G.C., it's podium at a top five, you know, seven, eight, nine, we don't know, right? Yeah, certainly there's going to be riders in the top 10 that we have not mentioned. It's not, you would not say like the deepest G.C. field, maybe,
Like that works in Burgos' favor.
he's here. Is it fair to say he's here? Because he wants the win this and check it off his list,
and he has to prepare for worlds, and maybe this is good preparation. I would say so, right? And then, yeah, feel let's go, and he's probably the best climber that's not
“forgot, sure. Oscar, I think the course is good for Oscar, I think Richard Caripass, I think Richard”
Caripass could go for stages and do well in the G.C., I was having a hard time remembering the last time Caripass did really well in a grand tour G.C., he did get eight at this tour, you know, we're not even really going for G.C., which tells us, when was that last year? At the tour that just happened. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, he wasn't really then, and then before that, let's not forget he was he was starting in the G.C., at the G.C., in the last year, and then he was forth at the vault in
2024, so this actually could be a really good, you mean, podium would be a big, that would be big for him, and it's probably not out of reach, scale moza. I'll probably finish in the top 10, but he looked, I imagine he's retired after that tour, and then in Rick Moss, actually, which really good at. Burgos is not a great in Rick Moss race. He's more of a three-week racer, so the fact that he was top five at Burgos. I'm actually, I'm actually here right now, I'm actually in that region, yeah,
I mean, I mean, in Ribeira, they'll do it, but for a four-day stage race with my son, in his national stage race, so yesterday we went to recall the climb, the Laguna, the Naila, which was featured in the tour of Burgos. I knew that from when I was a cyclist in a director,
but I didn't remember it was so steep, it's incredible steep. Anyways, that weird thing about this
climb, they seem to get harder every year. I don't know what's coming out of that, we have to investigate that phenomenon, but yeah, every climb you go back, like, oh, this is not as easy as I remember. And then, rather, she would think would be one of the favorites, right? But as you said, what was the training act? So he got hit by a car in training, is that right? He got hit by a car, yeah, he got hit by a car, and I think there was, you know, he had bruises and like,
“I mean, in Jerry's on his thigh and his glute, I think, which, you know, some important muscle,”
and sometimes these injuries take a long time to recover. Until all that blood in the muscle is absorbed, it can take a while. But then you've talked about him in the past already, get to the Valtah with problems, crashes, you know, and then he kind of got through it and won. I don't think this is the same. And then another writer, we talked about him briefly before we started recording Spencer, I'm not sure if you can tell what you think about him. He was fifth last year
in the Valtah. The difference now is that he has done the tutor France. And the question is, how has he recovered, right, from from the tutor France? But what do you think, how far can he go in the GC? Well, I'm of two minds about it because I do think it's a good course for him, but he looked a little off. I mean, how would you describe his story? It was he was good. He was solid, but there seemed to be something missing. And then you think,
can he really let's say he was not firing all cylinders at the tour really come to the Valtah
“and then be better than that? Or does that come happen in the issue you've had at the tour?”
I mean, I would say it's not easy to recover. The thing is, he comes here without any pressure. I think that's an advantage. Biggs doll is the leader of the team. So, you know, he will, who knows? You know, it's a good course for my pure cathello, but it all depends on the energy.
You know, what's how much energy is left in the time? Yeah. And it's the first time he does,
doing two grand tours in one season, if it's zero and Valtah, it's different than doing two and Valtah. It's very different. Yeah, I was surprised. So, the start was, but yeah, maybe it's at his own request. I don't know, it's, you know, he can, he can be, he can be top 10 for sure. Yeah, I mean, sometimes you see, and the setcouze does top 10, even when he does this, he'll go to a grand tour, look at it with a lot of grand tours, but then sometimes just a support
a GC rider. So is, yeah, Rikatella here just for gall on a couple stages or is he going for his own GC? Does it matter? Well, he riding at the top 10 if he just is supporting gall. That would be another Possibility, I it is curious to me like maybe he's maybe he's feeling better than he did at the tour He's coming in for a great Walter. That would be the flip side the counter argument to it But only thing also Spencer that you just named the name we didn't mention him said because he won this race
He won
2020 23 right now 24 5 no no no no no 24 24 23 24 23 and then
“Wait I feel like we're losing our minds. We didn't really have to pull in the ball to spend it”
2022 2022 then yeah 22 I guess and then 24 would have been Rockwoods 25 would have run into yeah Yeah, okay, yeah, so that's right, but yeah subcuce That's of course so extra in tour of the year we then named him as yeah
Again again amazing amazing
I think subcuce is going to be you know he was he was good at you know at the last week of the tour Yeah, you know, it's an I think we should put him in top five candidates also. We mean we can't put it Spencer. Okay Correction we can't put and Rick Moss in here and not put subcuce in here I think Yeah, so yeah at number seven seven seven guy
“The owner, you know, he deployed you marked up five the only thing about subcuce”
This is crazy so you know the maximum number of grand tours you can do any years three So let's say over the course of a one two three four-year period The max you could do is is 12 right if you did three every year for four years So it is three and 23 and 24 you're staying in a light. He does one grand tour So now we're up to total of four and
2025 he does two grand tours so now we're up to a total of six And then this year he'll do all three again giving up to a total of nine nine grand tours and four years It's not a lot like a lot Yeah, I just I mean subcuce a few if he built his whole season around this well to I think for sure You would like you would be doing extremely well on the GC but
So like at some point does he like how far can he take this I mean what's interesting is do you know where you finished over all in the zero He wasn't really going for the GC but he finished 13th same thing is the tour. So You know if he does a similar type of ride he could be top
“Ten like yeah top ten one the thing I think the thing with subcuce is you know”
Does he go for GC or not? I mean if you look at their lineup they don't have a GC guys subcuce should be their GC guy. Yeah, I think I mean I think it's probably gonna be North Harlem who's going for GC The young is it they need for nice Norwegian Norwegian. Yeah, believe it's Norwegian Yeah, but you know We haven't seen anything from him yet over three weeks the different big talent but
I think also subcuce will I don't think he will have ambitions for GC and he will if he if he didn't see is because it's gonna happen to him Because he's not gonna lose a lot of time at the beginning but subcuce is not gonna be a rider Today in this Welta who's you know fighting for positions in the flat stages to not lose time You know he's just gonna ride relax in the bunch see what happens and then eventually okay
If he doesn't lose time great, you know, but he's not gonna have the team around him Finding for positions when because there's there might be a cross with them. There might be a break in the Palatone that's his way of racing
Kind of laid back and maybe basically picking out his stages to perform in the mountains and this is the best
Grand Tour to do that at you know, it's last we're sure in the early stages Two wild nerds for you. How do you think Ben too? That's gonna do it this race 56 kilos so it's gonna You look pretty good pretty good course for him a lot of our climbing not a lot of our competitions Also what about Udybrooks trying to Udybrooks on Movistar
Yeah, I mean listen, I mean I would love to see him perform for the moment we I mean Was the leader of the of the Movistar team in the tour started sick you know couldn't recover Top 10 top 10 he has the potential feet top 10 Five I don't know there's I mean listen if there's once one stage rate where he can have a shot at top five it's this one given You know the the quality of all the other contenders taking away pagachar, but
I still think it's gonna be somewhere like seven eight nine or ten max Okay, which would be great for him top 10 top 10 plays in a grand tour with the great Well, let's do you want to take a break and then we'll talk about the route where we think this race is gonna be one and lost or any more contenders you want a name
Let's take a break first, okay
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That's take ultra dot com code the move for 15% off and when they ask you where you heard about them tell them we sent you it really helps to show Okay, y'all on we are back so we talked about the contenders
“The what what is going to affect who wins this race is is the root?”
I mean not really right because they could just do 21 criteriums and look at your would probably figure out a way to win it But it is a hard route like I went through and I use an objective like course difficulty rating And laid out every stage of every grant tour for the last four years and this is the hardest grant tour by going by this data since the 2024
Zero to tie yeah and the second third hardest grant tour of the last four years There are how many stages there are nine mountain stages seven summit finishes six Hilly stages four flat-ish sprint stages and in like even then like some of them maybe won't be sprints Two individual time trials 40.6 kilometers of individual time trial account a lot for modern cycling 10 stages over 3,000 meters of climbing four stages over 4,000 meters of climbing one stage over 5,000 meters of climbing that stage
12 799
Right and then always it's actually no it's actually no it's actually
No, so it's not in the period you're not in the end you know that I'm not in the high mountains It's actually at the coast you don't hear bany dorm where you know all these riders train so they would all know this course That's that stage nine at the alto they like Ghana
Yes, harder that's the 5,000 plus meters. Yeah, it's that's hard I showed you very how much how much climbing Spain has that the hardest I mean Actually, I really if you if you there's a couple objective ways to like you throw all the stage info into a Formula and it spits out a difficulty stage 20 is for some reason is harder probably because the final climb is like Undealing deep and long yeah, but the the stage with the most elevation gain is not in any of the major mountain ranges of the country
“Like that's how much climbing there is in Spain that you could just have a coastal stage with over 5,000 meters of climbing that is”
Incredibly difficult. I think it it's a little backload. We mentioned it up top
But it starts in Monaco go through France just a little peep into the pierties. It's it's basically two stages in the pierties
One is a soft summit finish one is a tough stage in indoor, which should be fantastic on stage four Then they shoot down and they're basically ripping down the coast as you said stage nine stage nine is in Benador and Calpe area and then they're in southern and they're on the long that southern coast for the rest of the race It it doesn't look like it's gonna be too hot, which is something we were worried about and like in fact the opening in Monaco looks downright mild like
20 20 mid 20s it's like mid 70s in Fahrenheit so but It is a bit of a stacked like the third week is kind of stacked so if you just look at the hardest stages like I'll just list them out right here So stage 20s the hardest stage 14 would be the second hardest stage 12 would be the third hardest Stage nine the fourth hardest stage seven the fifth hardest stage 19 the sixth hardest stage four the seventh hardest stage three the eighth stage
Six the ninth stage 13 the tenth
“I would think that pagachar is not gonna wait until the third week. I think he's gonna want this wrapped up with a bow by the first rest of a so I would”
Yes, I think by stage nine by stage nine Sponsor it's a game over And then he'll try to defend and as he said prepare for worlds whatever that might be a few stages Where he has to go hard though, you know, and we may be whole winter stage or two there But I think it's gonna be a lot of the GC actions gonna be early and then it's gonna be defense and people are gonna be battling For the for the podium the rest of the time what what stage do you think like essentially this race will be won by you think stage nine is the one
I mean, it's pagachar it's a pagachuk and I mean he can he can decide it's over of stage four
It's probably going to be over by stage four Sponsor you know the that short ...
In four kilometers, there's some hard climbs there. You have you have first about Amba leader than you have or Dino
Those are hard climbs man so
“But by stage nine it's I think stage nine is probably gonna be where”
Everybody can say okay when everybody knows already who's gonna win But once again they're gonna say okay, you know what we may have hopes or you know We may have hopes that the either bad day or isn't hasn't become a property from the tour. I forget about that. It's not gonna happen Yeah, by stage nine. It's all all done in dust it's I think Besides bored not a summit finished, but what have we seen last like what do we see at the tour the biggest time gap was
The tournament of stage right which I guess technically was a summit finish But he extends his lead, you know, he'll go over a climb and in the amount of time you can take on a climb is fixed You know, it's basically everyone's going there max and you're not gonna take it and say no amount of time on a top to your GC rider But when you get over and then it starts to like elongate the effort he can take a lot of time on people So that would be the reason stage four would be you know, maybe a place for him to take a lot of time
And then stage nine What what this final climb is basically split into where there's the public part and then they go up to the Yeah, can air force installation all the riders who train there and or and love well a lot of riders live there They all know a part of the two don's which is a long climb basically starts from down The coast to from Villa Josa
“It's about I think it's about 15 kilometers although I do think no”
That's the best in normal time, but I think they come from another side they come from a backroads through from Rio Rio, I think it's called R-E-E-R-E-L-L-E-U Little road and then they get in the middle of two don's which is I think about you know, then still five or six kilometer climb you get to the top And then Normally all the riders go down the other side here is different. They go right as the gates that's the military domain
Which is always closed for the public
And that's still that's another seven kilometers I would say probably I mean, I don't have the profile here as long you better between eight and ten percent average As far as of 12 percent It's very hard It's very very very very hard and
So that climb yeah, also that Tana is It's probably one of the hardest climbs in the welta Like the last seven k or eight percent average, but it's only that low because the last k is six percent So okay, you know, it's quite steep for the last six before the final k and Europe just has random like I was doing a climb the other day
The motorone which I didn't I've never seen in the geota tide. This was
You weren't into the on holiday. Yeah, kind of by like where flea will go on is from and I just see a sign There's like a little ski man, you know, it's like a person skiing on a sign says 22 k and like I wonder what's up there Up there the last like 14 k are eight percent average. This is unbelievable, unbelievably hard And there's just these random climbs that are like shockingly difficult, but uh It really gives you a perspective on you know how difficult some of these are, but I think you're right
Yohan, I think stage four stage nine is probably wrapped up by then and then It actually could open the race up to be quite interesting from a day to day perspective because, you know I think as we saw it you know, then another another another stage that another stage Spencer that's really I mean, I don't know the number uh is a color alto is that stage twelve, color alto it yes
Yeah, yeah, so that's really that those last two climbs are also incredibly hard, you know, it's
“That's how to the very feet get is a hard climb and then color out to I mean if I feel remember”
This same stage was won by um Damiano Cunigo a few years ago solo break away In the end of wealth, but those those two climbs are incredibly hard also I mean there's some of these so like even your stage 20 is incredibly hard just to give you An idea be total for is 4,000 basically 4,900 meters over 186k, but the final climb 8.4k at 10% average that's really hard But then stage 19 the day before that you look at the final climb
It's 19 kilometers is a six and a half percent, you know, that's not it. That's not it. That's not it. It was about Been being been yeah, Blanca of Pinos Blancos or yeah, of the Colineus Pinos Blancos yeah and a hard 210 kilometer long stage
It is a tough course.
Who knows what the race situation is going to be like when we get to stage? You know when we talk when we talk about all these climbs
Spencer, you know, and my other thought is you know worse printers, you know worse because yes There are four flat-ish stages, but you know, is it really going to be in which team as a pure sprinter
“Then brings a team that can control the stage, you know, I think of the top of my head with two real pure sprinters here are”
Getting gross and Jordi moves right? Yeah, yep, then all the other sprinters are more like versatile writers you know they're well done up Peterson I mean nothing we're on any doesn't but you brand. Yeah, but you know then Those teams have also GC writers, so you know then it's the question of how How hard are these teams going to work to actually make it a bunch print, right? So those flat stages could actually Great great opportunities for breakaways
Well, and if you're mad, it's better to send them out, but aren't there's a good chance you're in those breakaways too Especially like a difficult way so we didn't speak about them Spencer We talked about the the favorites for GC, but those are the two other star writers. I think that aren't the start line I mean not that they're the other all the writers are good writers, right? Otherwise you're not a professional cyclist at this level. You know doing rap tour, but you know
To see what one art and much better shouldn't be at the start
“Well done art and fortunately missed the two of the front, so that's why he's here”
Meas and really good shape Mad moths better soon again After the two of the froncy did it's like when are you going to take a break now? I can't believe he's here Yeah, yeah, let's let's take a quick break and then I do want to ask you about how these guys are going to do so we'll be Right back to talk about well fin art and Matt's putters enough in the sprake so you on the last time
Well, in our did this race 2020 24 he starts off. He starts the race off third place second place first place
Take some three stages to win our three days to win a stage then he goes on to win one two three stages He's I believe when he crashes out on stage 16 he's wearing the point jersey. I think and I think also was almost or in the KOM jersey lead
“Problem during that during that stage Spencer. I think during that stage. He actually got yes”
He got him into the focus on jersey. Yes. So now he's here one the only complication is is Matt's peterson That's the only guy who can kind of match what he does, but this route you look at this route you said there's four is Sprint stages, but just to get people example like stage five is our first easy day And it's 173k long still as over a thousand meters of climbing it has 1600 meters of climbing And as a 4k long six and a half percent climb 28k from the finish line
Stage like that probably not as you said there's not the teams to really pull it to control it like it's gonna be red bowl and maybe NSN for Is he go hostage or an NSN? Am I right? Yes, I'm controlling it, but you know I'd like if if Wildfinner really wants to get up the road and win that stage and Matt's peterson NSN for who you go hostage or like that type of Sprint or right like at a stage. Yeah They just like as like you could see the pulling pretty good. I don't think I don't think at a team like an SN
Should have that kind of ambition. I mean like if they're gonna work for who will host center I mean
Peterson and Vaughn after always gonna be there
Whatever host letters there. So You know who go off center is Sprint is pretty good Sprinter, but You know when the big guys are there he's like four to fifth or sixth right maximum So Now, I think I think
They should like like that is probably gonna be Yeah little track and then Vismal good rolling it for those two guys And and that's the first Easy-ish day and then you go to what stage eight is Still not so straightforward there's a nine-k-long climb
30 k from the finish like well that kind of complicates things especially if the breakways too close Or gets brought brought back to early and then you see a attack go on that climb and then is it too hard to pull that group back Before they get to the finish and what if Patterson or Van Art is in that attack then you're definitely not gonna get them back because their teams are gonna pull so Yeah, it probably is a good race for Patterson and Van Art right for sure. Yeah, I mean that's the reason why they're here
You know that they've done their homework before they make the decision right
I'm happy I'm happy that
Both of them at the start are both really spectacular writers
Cloth writers you know best some of the best I mean top five top six best writers in the world right Yeah So it's it's great for the vault also that they're at the start and and and the vault for an art actually Set that he has big ambitions to take the leaders jersey very early on in the state in the race so
“I think it's gonna be you have to be stage one two or three”
Yes, yeah has to be before stage four Yeah, I don't think I'll take it in the time trial, but you look at stage two. You could take the leaders jersey stage three you take the lead stage three is a some of finished technically But it's not so steep that Van Art would he could be there at the end especially if he is focused on that and put his mind to it Are they are these two writers repairing for the world championships or is that above their ability
Or do they not know and you just have to be ready?
No, I think I listen I think well Van Art for sure as chances to I mean the course he he's able to manage that course in In Montreal for sure Patterson I think also Of course none of that none of these two are able to match for that chair When touch our has you know a clean run at the world championships and
And tactically he's not he's not you know on the back foot because As team cannot support him or something and these are just you know. I bought the six right Yeah, I'm gonna be in case
“But I think both of those writers are here with a specific goal, you know, I mean it's they developed a is it goal for them?”
It's not just a way to a way to get to the to the world championships. They both want to perform there one of its stages and I think they're both very ambitious to for the punch jersey And I mean just to give people we'll give our picks at the end of this at the show, but It's like wild in our plus 200 or points, Brennan plus 250 Patterson plus 250 so
And then Pagach are plus 300 he's probably their main competition actually for that point jersey Well, I mean we'd have to look at how the points are distributed. It's they follow the same system as the tour now or You know typically the valta is known In a lot of times the point jersey has been won by a GC rider Because there were so many points available so I don't know if did they change the this the point system now
Which know that's Give more possibility to the printers although they're not many sprinters stages so
“Yeah, that's the thing like let's say it's 70 points for a sprint stage. What is that?”
Four stages you know, and then we need to see also what the point so for the intermediate sprints aren't there even is the same system? I mean it's a it's all race so I don't know if if they follow the same pattern now. I haven't I haven't looked into detail But anyway stage two like Interesting so there's a bonus bonus sprint like a sprint with points
But also it looks like there's a bonification seconds at the intermediate sprint just like the zero which well Make that kind of interesting, but yeah, we should we probably it's kind of hard to fix it's not as easy as you
With think to know what the points are for each stage. You know, I feel like I'm always
Diving deep to try to figure this out. It's like odd that they don't just have like a simple form they can send you Wow Spencer we should maybe have The look indeed that's look at the broke book. It's probably in there. It's got me You would think it's in the roadbook they give you the teams for sure, but yeah, well then like this year I'll they'll have these like the thankfully the vault that doesn't have this they'll have bonus prints and then they'll have a second sprint like the bone of it's like a
Second point jersey that is there just to sell the hats for the vault the thankfully is a little bit more straightforward I would think though let's just assume Let's assume assignment finishes 30 points. Let's assume a sprint stage is 70 points But gotcha. It's still good. I mean there's not gonna be that there's not gonna like let's say it's one spring They're gonna win more than one stage probably. Well, yeah, it's a chance it's a sprint stage
The difference in the different Spencer is that well, but not with Peterson can also win other stages or score points in other stages That are not sprint stages and not mountain stages. That's plenty of those So I think it's it's it's hard to see The points jersey not be one by one art Yeah, or Peterson and if it's not one of them it's gonna be pogachar
Yes, that's that's probably correct and and in terms of teams if anything the strongest team at this races Like just for example, the here's just strong teams and I'm looking at
Red Bull Roglic Finfisher black
Federic one tall Jordi mayo's Johnny Moscow, but right here. We've got he got split stuff
“Johnny Moscow and Canlem Thorny Luke talk well who's really really good Johnny vermiche and then you have a you a”
Jewell Made up who got second year last year evil Olivia era dome in Novak Tadip
We got your Pavles Ivakov Pablo Torres Kevin vermarket J Vine that's a really strong team and it's really is the strongest focus behind premature UE is stronger than than than Red Bull. I think yeah It's not that strongest lineup, but it I think there's I mean there's a few guys that come in fresh J Vine man, that's hope J Vine doesn't crash this time
Scratch them basically every single race he's done this year and he's he was you know often so good So this is one of this is one of the most Yeah, down under and then he they discovered that he had a broken bone. Oh my Off to race yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, this is where we discovered J Vine at the highest level When he won two mountain stages when he was on the opposite remember remember yeah, yeah, exactly
And he could I believe you might have crashed in that race too like up against E encar or something
“He did he did yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right. I remember that it was uh that was the rim cover year 2020”
Miramical Ramko Valdaya yeah, and then J Vine here. We are back. It a great vault to last you too on the Completely chaotic U18 where they got in the break week when for stages every day. I assume they'll be a little bit more restrained than than last year Oh, and it's my sponsor. We've seen him many times when Pugachas here It's a different TV a it's all all behind one guy And then when Pugachas not there it's it's chaos
I mean last year it was it was obviously also had to do a little bit with the attitude of When I used so I guess and then you know that interview before the race where Are you so announced that he was leaving or no the team announced that he was leaving and I think there was like mid ice right was it mid-race First let's say or something Something like that yeah
That was a strange which stage will the canceled due to protest we have to try to predict that as well Hopefully we don't have that this year. No, no, I kind of wiped out that from my brain You know there's been a lot of strange things going on and in the south I mean it's in Sota It's not typically and it's not in theory the main land, right? Yeah, you know you have Sota and Milila Yeah in Spain which are two parts of Spain that are actually on the African continent, but I guess you've seen that invasion, right
Oh, yeah, I don't know if that's going to be fact I don't know hopefully that one of fact to be staged that would be very on brand for the vaults of though if there was some sort of Spat between you know it's like all it's just trying over between Spain, Algeria and Morocco if if that Well, maybe maybe they tried to swim over now. I mean you know it's not even though The straight edge of the vault is like
For me I don't know if anyone's gonna be swimming through that But that that would be that would be on brand for the vaults also we should say the final stage in Granada Not it's not a processional stage. It's like a real not difficult stage as well. So the point here's it could go all the way there
“Yeah, I think UAE what do you what do you think about on Mita like how's he gonna do it this race is it's just him?”
I don't know I mean now I think I think I'll make that's not I mean It's an if he's here. It's obviously because they think he's good enough
And you know what I'll made up whenever he's not the leader he's always a great teammate, you know when he's
at the service All the leader he's a great teammate. So they must think that he's good enough, but obviously this is not a season for All Mita, you know, he started off Think and then they found out he had like this like a virus. I don't know if it was monoroculars or something or was out for a long time
then came back but didn't perform in in Dofine and so yeah, they must now know of it to do that he's better. Otherwise he wouldn't get to start So I hope for all Mita that this is a step back into what we are used to see from him, you know, at least the level of performance
And if all Mita is his kind of in good condition he can be a you know of a incredible value for Pugachar in the mountain stages
In the issue we never really figured out right because he starts a season well at Valenciana
Algarma he's good Catalonia he's not good and you said right then he's at something all right with this guy doesn't look
Physically it's not the same then at the Dofine he's not good and then a Pola...
and do we know what happens? Elner's probably in politics in politics he crashed
Okay, yeah But yeah, I mean I personally think if he wouldn't be if he would still be struggling with whatever happened to him during the season I don't know why they would put him at the start of the Delta I would not make no sense right so Yeah, I mean he must be he must be as you say in good shape and I figured that yeah, you know
there's no better place to get your Mojo back than on a Grinch or team with Pugachar right there's no pressure on you You're gonna feel good about yourself in the team because you're gonna be winning a lot most likely
“and hopefully he gets back and it's some of things do you want to predict the first stage in Monica?”
Yeah, let's go but let's take a quick break and then we'll do that. Yeah, we'll be right back Everybody this episode is brought to by Lagoon sleep the riders at this well. So believe we'll be looking for any and every edge they can get but the thing that most people overlook but is most impactful for your performance on the bike It's sleep. It's not the slickest wheels the fastest bike. It is getting sleep at night and sleep works the same way it's structure training one bad night just like one bad workout
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So if you want to try this for limited time you can get 15% off using code the move at one skin.co slash the move That's 15% off one skin dot co slash the move and using code the move. So you're on we're going to predict Monaco Stage 1 and then also give hard GC predictions which probably won't be too shocking But the race starts on Saturday also we're going to be doing daily shows after every stage I don't know if we said that but we will be here helping you along during this wealth up
But Stage 1 starts in Monaco with a 9.4 kilometer long time trial. I had assumed this was like the same course You guys did in 2009 at the tour. It's not it's easier. It is quite still quite technical though It's a lot of turns. There's a lot of you know like hot dogs is why I would call them where you go down a street You turn around you come back along that street so there is going to be some technical writing not a ton of climbing In fact it has 59 meters of climbing over 10k okay
Who obviously this will be important there'll be some time gaps for the GC but not massive time gaps because it's 9.4 kilometers long Who do you think wins this opening time trial Spencer I mean I I think I hope I hope this is the guy who wins
It's actually incredible he's at the start. I just figured out today that he's at the start but
If he's at the start it's because he wants to be here and it's just starting You know we all know what happened to his young brother a few days ago Fortunately actually that he passed away during the tour of Portugal and Man just starting is at the start of the welta With the big me he's going to be writing him and his brother are we going to be writing together
In this race and I think your starting is going to win the pro lock.
testimony of
I don't know how to call it
Yeah, I mean I just I need him to win. I need him to win and I think you can win I was surprised to see he was starting this the thing we could
“That you have to think he's here to win this and get the leaders jersey for his brother right we just assumed that that he's very motivated for this”
For stage you had a similar story where you had your father passed away right before the tour you showed up And then you told that story during the the tour that you said you felt like that was like the best you'd ever ridden in your life So it stains the reason that Josh Trans is going to come out and feel like he's writing for two people just like you did And I also think he wins this open stage. I mean who who is even gonna challenge him? You think the gutcher is pretty good time trials, but a flat is 10 kilo wild one art wild one art yeah
Stefan Cooke Stefan Cooke the pro lock just just on the time trial in He's here now Stefan I feel like Stefan Cooke is not He is here hold on say
So he wins the time trial at Poland you're right Poland yeah before that his last time trial win Yeah, but Stefan Cooke was heavily injured. He had a big crash I don't remember what he broke but I'm gonna say his office or his hip Maybe his femur I don't know in this spring and
Was out for a number of months and You know when he won the the time trial in Poland and to see how he motioned how emotionally he was how much it meant for him to be back winning a race
So but that's the first confirmed he's at the start, but I think he is he will be as at least at the startlist
I'm looking at and he'll be at the race and did wins the last time he did develop the The no sorry he did it last year and he didn't want to stage in 2024 He wins the final time trial of the valta so Yes, Stefan Cooke and Robin art just darling but if you go back to the tour just darling was the fastest Rider from the first time check to the finish so the guys second the second second check to the finish the last check to the finish yeah
“But I think he was the fastest from the first check so you remember it was uphill”
Okay from the top of the time to the finish yeah, yeah, which is a long that's like a big data set So I'm not really stuck out to me like wow this guy is a really good time trialist I think probably in terms of pure TTS. He's the best rider at this race Well, however in our winning would be that would be impressive. I I don't know if I see Cooke and then our Beating darling on this open stage though
Listen for once I'm going to say I hope they don't Yeah, yeah, it's like the one time I don't want but if you don't want to welcome or to win How far do you think these GC guys are going to be behind like how far much time does feels call loose to purgature Nine foot what was it nine and a half kilometers yeah So 20 seconds no no no no no no no no no no still minutes whoa whoa oh that's it yeah
That shows you the difficulty beating but got you right now what is that second city 45 seconds I'm curious to see how rock it does it's very telling that we're not even talking about them in terms of winning this This would have been his bread and butter back in 2019. Yeah, yeah, it will tell us a lot about where he is though
“I'm curious to see how he does and then so we I think we both have time that's going to win the first stage at least we hope you guys”
I mean we have data to tell us that he is an incredibly good time trialist and he's this is a good course form This is crazy so this is on draft Kings these are the odds for the overall. Do you want to guess what Tadate Pagotcher's that
-500 minus 1,000 to win the oh well you'd have to bet 1,000 dollars to win $100 okay I've never seen that before
That's not worth it. That's not worth it. No feel it's gone plus 1100 I'll made a plus 1400 that feels like an inefficiency right there I'll that he's not why I see the third favorite Oscar only plus 1400 Caripass plus 1800 Inirk Moss plus 1800 Rockwich plus 2000. Who do you think finishes second third here? I think Phoenix call in his second
I'm going to say Oscar only third so your podium is Pagotcher this is in order Pagotcher Gaul only Yeah, my podium would be Pagotcher only Gaul. I just think the course this is stuck out to me. This is kind of Just I guess it's an oddity of the course. So do you know how many stages go over 2,000 meters of elevation
One the one with the caveat so stage four indoors high right so that 17 kilom...
They go over and I know they go over and buddy so I thought he'd ice 2,500 right and then to the rest of the race
“Yeah, it is it's very high like yet 2,400 the rest of the race there's only two kilometers over 2,000 meters”
Two kilometers which is that's a little little bit of the end of stage 12 So essentially so that's got an alto yes, okay, I didn't know it was that high and It is pretty high I said not a lot of like it's just not that similar to the zero and as we talked about last week Gaul had such a high high at the zero to tell you and then is he really going to be able to come back and yeah I mean do a spin and it do a Spain Spencer, you know if they're not going to the real high purely climbs
And they're not going to say it on a Baba it's very difficult to go over 2,000 meters What it would about like can top real like what are the highest peaks there
The passes are not that high. Yeah, what's the less you know there's there's very high mountains
But there there's there know like a super high mountain passes Yeah, yeah like Lagos Cabo Dango of Ananga. I don't think it's 2000 meters. Yeah, I guess it's not as high as I thought Yeah, I guess you're right if you're not in the pier in these and there's only one stage really in the pier in these I'm going to do I'm made it was nothing thousand meters true sure yeah I just think that's a better course for only than than as you're okay. I was but
Also super motivated right this is his season has all season comes to this race. So he's going to be More motivated than fill skull fill skull yeah, the nice contract waiting for him at the start Yeah, Jan one I don't who knows how distracting that is though. Maybe it's not distracting at all
As I said before Spencer, there's always the bonuses that can motivate
Even if it's not attractive. There's a bonus bonus is what I'm told you might the ground on a ground tour let me tell you He's going to be motivated and so I think the interesting one to bet is young riders classification Oscar only minus one sixty five Matthew Rica tell a plus six hundred plus six hundred
Yorgan Nordhagen plus six hundred who to Brooks plus nine hundred Talk well plus fourteen hundred who do you think wins this young riders? Well, I don't only I think Oscar only I think this is the best GC bet there is Lonely at minus one sixty five is a great bet especially considering what we've seen from them and then point Classification who do you think wins that it's a ban art plus two hundred burn in plus two fifty
Patterson plus two fifty book out trip plus three hundred I'm going to say well, but not because of the freshness
“I think he's you know and it's got a video to wear a high order, right?”
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think so I think so okay I'm going then back to well, but I think yep, I think he wins that point mountain I'm actually surprised by this Lorenzo fortune out of plus two fifty Pagotra plus two fifty lot of unknowns here like we don't know what's gonna happen with these breakaways
I almost would bet Pagotra just at plus two fifty for mountains. He might accidently ask thing Like I'm surprised he's at low Like let's see who do you think won the mountain classification here last year Gave a jv on jv on one by five points over bend a guard oh and Then the year before jv on one crazy I didn't realize
Two times in a row two times in a row and then rmco one in 2023 2022 Caripass wanted interesting I don't know I would I would think a Pagotra if you see any Leaders jersey and Pagotra is plus two fifty maybe just bet it that might be the way to go Because there's a good chance he wins multiple jerseys on accident just from trying to train for the
“World Championships anything else you'll hunt before we take off. I think we've covered most of it”
Yeah excited they get started on Saturday Spencer Yeah, interesting start. I'm excited they started monico and then Kind of snake their way over to the piranys. I'm that's gonna be a good way to start the race Excited to see how everyone looks we're gonna have a good little data set right there to take a long time trial no place to hide We both think Tarlin's to gotta go with and Pagotra's probably gonna do pretty well against the GC competition
But we'll be back after stage one to break it down on talk to you soon. Okay, thanks. Okay, bye
