Iran War Escalates, Kurds Stay Out, Global Shipping Crisis

investing in creative thinkers and problem-solvers who help people, communities and the planet flourish. More information is available at Hewlett.org. Israel bombed Iran's oil facilities over the weekend, causing black rain to fall over the capital Tehran. A senior Israeli official tells NPR's Daniel Astron, Israel expects to feed Iran in about three weeks. "I'm Michelle Martin, that's Steven Ski and this is up first from NPR News."

One of the groups that could rise up against Iran's government is ethnic Kurds, many live in Western Iran, others live across the border in Iraq. But in Iraqi leader tells NPR they are "not guns for higher." So what is their role in the Middle East War?

Also, the war is blocking traffic through one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.

Tankers and container ships are not passing through the Strait of Hormos at a global energy crisis

“is growing. Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day."”

Support for NPR and the following message come from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, investing in creative thinkers and problem solvers who help people, communities, and the planet flourish. More information is available at Hewlett.org. Here's a big question hanging over the U.S. and Israeli war in Iran. How long will this war last? That question is becoming urgent as the war begins to affect the global economy. Israel escalated the war over the weekend bombing

oil facilities, the disruption of shipments from multiple nations has sent the price of oil,

soaring. And Iran shows no sign of giving in after choosing a new supreme leader over the weekend.

A senior Israeli military official spoke with NPR's Daniel Estrin about how Israel views the prospects for ending the war, either Daniel? Hi Steve. Okay. So what is the Israeli timeline? Well, just as we're speaking here, you might hear the alarms we are getting advanced notice on our phones that the Iranian missile is on its way to Israel. So we have a few minutes now to speak before the air raid sirens will go off. But I'll tell you that Israel is expecting that

“it needs about three weeks to achieve its goals in Iran. That's what a senior Israeli defense”

official told me this weekend. This person is in the military's operations directorate. He spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Israel's military plans, but he says the goal is to

decimate Iran's army, navy, military industries, and Israel also realizes that President Trump

could just end the war at any point. So the U.S. is not giving a timeline on how it sees the war and how long it would take, but we do know that the U.S. has not been happy with Israel's targeting of the Iranian oil depose this weekend. And Daniel, of course, you're going to move when you need to to be safe. Don't worry about us at all, but glad you're with us for another moment. Sounds like there's a little bit of daylight between the U.S. and Israel here. But why

did Israel target Iran's oil facilities? Pretty dramatic. Yeah, well Israel said that Iran was using that oil to fuel Iranian missiles launched at Israel, but this is also civilian infrastructure we're talking about. U.S. officials have been displeased with the extent of the damage that Israel caused, you know, those skies that were blackened and the oily rain drops that dropped on the Tehran. So I heard from a person briefed on the matter, not authorized to be publicly that

the U.S. was not pleased with the extent of that damage. Even Senator Lindsey Graham, who's close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, tweeted publicly, "Israel, be cautious about your targets because Iran's oil economy will be needed when Iran's regime collapses." Or Graham hopes it will collapse, although the Iranians seem to be showing what they would consider to be resolved by choosing a supreme leader with the same name as the old supreme leader. That's right. Iran has appointed

Mujtaba Khamenae to be the news supreme leader. He's the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenae who was killed by Israel on day one of the war, and the son has seen as even more hardline than the father was. But Iran has sent a message as well this weekend that it can exact a painful price around the region, not just Israel. We saw Iran launch a missile with a dangerous cluster bomb warhead that hit an apartment building here in Tel Aviv, just a few minutes drive from me in Tel Aviv

and attacks on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia took place this weekend as well, so we're seeing the Gulf get dragged into this conflict as well. They've been very hesitant to take part in the war, so we're going to have to see where that goes. Okay, and Pierre's Daniel Lestrin is in Tel Aviv and Daniel, be sure to

“you're ready to move if you need to in the next few minutes. Appreciate your insights.”

You're welcome. Our next report on the war takes us to the western border of Iran, and it helps to get the geography down. Okay, so try to picture this. Ethnic Kurds live on both sides of the border. On one side, the Kurds are part of Iran. On the other side, Kurds control

side for decades. The US has talked of encouraging those Kurds to attack Iran in recent days. President Trump has suggested that he was for it, but then said he is against it. And Pierre's Jain Iraq is on the Iraqi side of the border in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, and she spoke with the Deputy Prime Minister there, Kubad Talibani on Sunday.

“She's in the city of Silamaniah, either Jain. All right. Okay, so what is the Iraqi Kurdish leader?”

Say about these Iranian Kurdish groups who seem to live on his territory. Well, as you know, the Kurds have long been strong US allies, including the fight against ISIS.

Now, this was Talibani's first interview with Western media since the start of the war,

and he wanted to make clear that neither Iraqi nor Iranian Kurds here would be part of the fight. Let's listen. We have explained maybe some of the flaws behind the thought of using Iranian Kurds as the tip of the spear to launch any potential uprisings within Iran. Talibani is Deputy Prime Minister for the entire Kurdistan region. He says his brother, Baffal Talibani, who is head of the party that controls this

part of Iraqi Kurdistan spoke with Trump last week and relayed this message. Our forces would not get involved on the any circumstances. This is not our war and we've made

that very clear. Talibani points out that in a country the size of Western Europe with 90 million

people Iran and multiple ethnic groups chaos would be disastrous. I appreciate that statement that Iraq is the size of Western Europe. You realize what it would take to invade and take over such a place. I want to explain further where you are. The Kurdistan region of Iraq broke away from the Iraqi government many years ago, but it's still part of Iraq. How

“vulnerable is it to getting involved in the war where there wants to or not?”

Well, it is definitely squeezed in the middle. On one side, there's Iran. And on the other side, the pro Iranian Iraqi government, U.S. military bases in the Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region, have been the most heavily hit by Iran and Iran backed Iraqi militias. But so many of province where we are has also been attacked by drones and missiles.

Here's what Talibani said about those Iraqi attacks. These are groups that have paid by the state,

firing at us. What's going on here? As Iran, been in contact with the Kurds during this war. Yes, he says the last time was just a few days ago when a high-level delegation alarmed my news reports that the U.S. was pressing for armed opposition groups here to cross the border came from Tehran. They were trying to understand the realities of this reporting,

“whether or not we're about to invade Iran and we made it very clear. No, we have no interest”

and no means to and that is not our policy. Talibani says there's a misconception in the U.S. about the Kurds. We always get labeled with good fighters, every U.S. president, maybe since Bill Clinton and some former fashion talked about how good a fight to we are. But we're not guns for higher. He says they just want to govern their region, build the economy, and live in peace. Okay, then Piers Jain Iraq reporting from the Kurdish city of Silemania.

Thanks so much. Thank you. Let's get another voice from near Iran's western border. Our co-host Lailafodel is there. Hey, it's Lailafodel. And I'm speaking to you as I cross the border into Iraqi Kurdistan. And I want to let you know that all week you'll hear dispatches from our team on the ground in the midst of the U.S. Israeli war on Iran. I chose to come here, not just because it neighbors Iran and is heavily influenced by both the Iranian and U.S. governments,

but because of the eerie echoes of the past, echoes that started the moment the U.S. dropped its first bombs on Iran. President Trump addressed Americans. For short, time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating eminent threats from the Iranian regime. 23 years ago, the American people heard a similar address.

My fellow citizens, at this hour, American and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to disarm Iraq to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger. President George W. Bush's war against Iraq was supposed to be decisive and short. It lasted over a decade, cost upwards of a trillion dollars, sparked a civil war and left deep scars on Iraqis who lived through the war and the U.S. soldiers who fought here.

that continue to haunt Americans, Iraqis and the region. Look out for our reports right here on up first and on our radio show morning edition that you can listen to on your local station or your NPRR. The war has created an enormous bottleneck in the straight-of-war moves.

Hundreds of oil tankers are stuck on both sides of this critical metast waterway

out of fear of attack by Iran. There are now escalating concerns of a global energy crisis,

“but it's not just oil tankers. Cargo ships are also stranded creating a shortage of essential goods”

getting to the Persian Gulf region. NPR International Affairs Corps spotted Jackie North. them joins us next to Jackie. Good morning. Good morning Steve. Okay, wow, one fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas passes through this one straight, the straight-of-war moves. Is it just as important for the container ships? Right, well, container ships represent a much smaller global percentage, about 3% than the oil tankers in the straight-of-war moves,

but they're carrying valuable cargo, aluminum, fertilizer, and food to the Middle East. And I spoke with a Matthew Wright and he's the lead freight analyst at Kepler, which is a global trade intelligence provider. And he says the mid-east relies on the container ships. 90% of its food is imports, particularly on the fresh side and the fact that those cargo's are not able to go in.

This could be a fairly critical issue for the region. You know, Wright says that the moment

container ships are not passing through the straight-of-war moves because of the security risk. And last week, a container ship did come under attack, the crew abandoned ship. It's been adrift. And when a tugboat from the United Arab Emirates went out to assist it, it was struck by a missile killing all eight on board. Amazing, then. So what happens to the cargo of all these ships when they can't move? Well, it sits. It sits in port. You know, there are roughly 120

cargo ships in limbo at ports in the Gulf region. And not surprisingly shipping companies are not accepting new bookings because, you know, we've got all this fresh food and the other things. Sitting there and they have no idea the companies how long the conflict's going to last. Unless I spoke with, say, the shipping industry is, you know, designed to keep things moving. And the situation in the straight-of-form moves is scrambling. That cargo is piling up,

stress on the ports. Things are slowing down and all this is not good from a market standpoint. Okay, as I understand, President Trump has talked of the U.S. Navy escorting tankers and ships through the straight-of-form moves, which would be a kind of replay of the 1980s when something like this happened. The U.S. put flags on oil, U.S. flags on oil tankers and so forth to get them

“through safely. But when he raises that idea in the 21st century, what kind of reception does it get?”

Luke Horm, I would say, you know, the U.S. Navy also tried this in the Red Sea using escort to protect ships from attacks by Yemen's Houthis. And I'll say, you know, it didn't have much impact. And let's face it. Iran is more sophisticated than the Houthis from a military point of view, and its ability to target moving vessels. And traveling alongside a U.S. naval vessel might make a tanker or our container ship more of a tempting target for Iran. But you know,

Steve Iran knows that launching the odd missile or drone at a vessel or even the threat of one can strangle marine traffic in the straight-of-form moves like we're seeing now. And it's using that as a weapon. And you know, this bottleneck is creating serious threat for the global energy, shipping, and frankly, the global economy. And if you're as Jackie Northam, thanks so much. Thank you. Hey, thanks for joining us today. We've got a favor to ask. Take a moment, if you can,

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take a moment to tell us what you think. It's a small and free way to support NPR's journalism, and it helps other listeners find us. Thanks. And that's a first for this Monday, March 9th. I'm Steve Innscape. And I'm Michelle Martin. Today's episode of the first was edited by Hannah Block, Tina Crya, James Hyder, Muhammad Elbar DC and H.J. Mai. It was produced by Ziyan Butch and Ben Abrams,

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