President Trump agreed to a ceasefire with Iran shortly before his self-impos...
to end its civilization. Iran still controls the state of Hormuz, which is too open for two weeks during negotiation.
I'm Leyla Faldin, that's Stephen Skip and this is up first from NPR News.
What exactly is in the agreement that stops the war? Iranians assert the U.S. agreed to negotiate final terms on the basis of their proposal, President Trump did not get the regime-change he called for. Israel says the ceasefire does not include its invasion of Lebanon. Also, what does a ceasefire mean for global markets?
Oil prices went up Tuesday morning, then quickly fell as the news spread. Analysts warn the damage to oil infrastructure will keep prices elevated. Stay with us.
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President Trump made a "pock-a-liptic" threats and then backed off. The United States agreed to stop its war against Iran. The President posted on social media that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire on the condition that Iran agrees to reopen the state of Hormuz. Israel says it supports the ceasefire with Iran, but that Lebanon is not included in
the deal. That, of course, is where Israeli forces are operating. Then, PR White House correspondent Franco Erdogan, yes, has been following all this Franco Good morning. Good morning, Steve.
Okay, reality show cliffhanger again, threat to destroy civilization in Iran in the morning. That's what the President said. And then this agreement in the evening. What do you make of this?
Yes, Steve, it's quite the walking back from his bombastic post yesterday and over the weekend when he used the F word telling Iran to open the state. I mean, yesterday was really a busy day of dealmaking, Trump wrote that he made the decision-based on conversations with the prime minister of Hachistan, who had been pressing Trump to back down from his threats.
Trump said he the U.S. received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which he described as a workable basis on which to negotiate. And he said the U.S. had already met and exceeded all its military objectives. Okay, so now they're going to talk on Iranian terms and Iran keeps control of the state of Hormuz, although they will allow shipping for a couple of weeks.
How significant is this? I mean, I think it's very significant. I mean, Trump often uses kind of this belligerent language, as you know. And these latest threats were really quite breathtaking even for him.
But it's never really a bad thing to avoid the dire scenario that he was painting.
But by backing down, Trump does kind of risk damaging his credibility. You know, he's likely to face even more criticism now that he has a reputation of backing down from this most threatening rhetoric.
“Frank, are you followed Trump's whole presidency? And of course, followed this whole war?”
How did we get to this moment? Yeah, I mean, I think Trump underestimated Iran's resilience. And that's the take of so many analysts, including Nate Swanson, who worked on the Iran portfolio and the Obama administration and early Trump years. I mean, he told me Trump took this position that if he put enough pressure on Iran,
caused enough damage that they'd eventually capitulate. And in some ways, Iran's, you know, obviously weakened and they've been struck however many 25,000 times or whatever the number is now. You know, but there's strategically they have a new pillar of their security architecture didn't exist before this war.
And so some ways are stronger. He's talking, of course, about the state of our moves, which he says is a much more tangible way to inflict immediate pain on the US and global markets. I mean, even Trump's posts seem to acknowledge that Iran now has the power over the straight. I mean, it's really a new tool in Iran's arsenal that they didn't have before.
Okay, just to review the president said there would be regime change in Iran. Even in recent days claimed that there had been there hasn't. Iran keeps control of the straight-of-war moves, although traffic resumes for now.
“And the negotiation will be on the Iranian proposal. Is that all correct?”
Yeah, I mean, Trump didn't say, actually, that he agreed to the 10 points, but he described them kind of as more of a foundation for talks to continue. Trump is meeting with the NATO Secretary General Mark Ruda where they are expected to be talking about this. But Trump clearly wants the war to end. He later posted that this was a big day for world peace, and that Iran can now start the reconstruction process.
But he also said Steve that the military will be just hanging out to enforce the deal. So we'll see what happens in the next two weeks. Are we back here again? I mean, it's really potentially an ugly cycle.
And if you are widest, of course, better, Frank Jordan. Yes, thanks as always.
Thank you. Now, we just heard some of the details of that ceasefire, which came after weeks of rhetoric from the President and from Iran. Yeah, I'm in President Trump had repeatedly, sometimes, profanely, threaten Iran's infrastructure, including threatening to bomb the country back to the stone age
and to end its civilization. Well, Iran was in fact, in its rejection of any temporary ceasefire.
Our Iranian's taking all this.
border with Iran either. Hey, Steve. What is the reaction in the region where you are?
“Well, Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Al-Aqchi posted a statement on X,”
expressing gratitude to Pakistani Prime Minister Shabash Shiree for brokering the ceasefire. But if statement made one thing clear, that Iran will continue to control the straight-of-form laws and any ships that are granted passage over the next two weeks, we'll do so on Iran's terms. And in Iran, expectations are tempered. Former Minister of Communications, Mohamed Javad Azadi Jad Army was quoted
in one state media outlet warning experience has shown that the start of negotiations does not mean the end of hostilities and the urge people there to remain ready and vigilant. I get the impression from social media that Iranians are celebrating. Right, right. So, you know, state media showed images of people jubilantly waving flags in the streets. But Steve, you know, for many Iranians, a permanent ceasefire would effectively mean the end of
any hope they have for real regime change. I spoke to a woman from Tehran who crossed the border into Turkey a couple of days ago about the potential for a ceasefire. And she don't want to
be named fearing reprisal when she returns home. And here's what she said.
Okay, she's saying that this war triggered a military coup on Iran that the country is now being entirely under the control of the Revolutionary Guard. I just want to note what that means for the for the laymen and analysts agree with what she says. The people who've ended up in charge in Iran are thought to be more extreme, more against the United States, more hardline, then perhaps
“some of the people who were in power before. So that's what analysis there. But I want to ask”
about the other front line in this war. There's been fighting in Lebanon. What does this ceasefire mean for that? Well, that's interesting. Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif who helped broker the deal set on acts initially that the ceasefire would include the end of hostilities in Lebanon. But his really Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office released a statement this morning saying that while Israel supports the ceasefire, it does not include Lebanon. And that's where Iranian
Back Hezbollah forces have been fighting with Israeli forces with hostilities really escalating in recent weeks. Now Hezbollah announced this morning that it is abiding by the terms of the ceasefire and Iran says that exclusion of Lebanon is unacceptable. But an Israeli source, not authorized to speak to the media told MPR that President Trump had a phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu before the ceasefire was announced. And this is domestically a real issue for Netanyahu because
opposition leader Yarla Pied set on acts that Netanyahu wasn't actually included in these negotiations
“and called it a political and strategic failure. Hmm. So what happens now?”
Well first let's see if anyone sticks to the terms because there were missiles flying into Israel
in several Gulf Arab states after the agreement was announced. But US and Iran are to meet in Islamabad on Friday to continue negotiations based on Iran's 10-point proposal. And they're still very far apart on some key points. For instance, Iran wants to continue its control of the straight-of-hormos and is demanding that it's right to enrich uranium be accepted. Iran maintains this nuclear program as a civilian program that a military won all the same
cessation of enrichment activity is a key demand for US and Israel. Also Iran wants a permanent agreement and here's where the trust issues come into play because of course during his first term. President Trump pulled the US out of the last nuclear deal the US negotiated with Iran. Deeper vase, thanks so much. Thanks for having me. Okay oil prices are following this morning as you would imagine. Global investors are absorbing the news of this ceasefire and
in for the moment of a threat to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges. Asian and European markets rallied with Japan's Nikkei gaining the most in almost a year on Wall Street down futures are up more than a thousand points ahead of the market's open. Sounds pretty good. Let's talk it through though with Empire's Maria Aspen morning. Good morning. Okay water investors seeing and feeling. So there is a whole lot of relief out there but I hate to throw some cold water on this.
We have to see how long it will last because this is just the latest twist and what's already been a really turbulent spring for Wall Street and global markets investors are swinging from hope to fear and back again last week Wall Street had its best days since last spring but stocks are still down since the start of the year and US markets just ended their worst quarter in nearly four years. Yeah just looking at this chart it's a steady path downward is that just been about the war.
There is more going on in the markets but Steve the war is absolutely the biggest story right now. It's already created an energy crisis with the virtual shutdown of the straight of Hormuz and as
That's made oil prices sore which affects not only what we pay at the gas pum...
what companies pay for shipping and trucking and that then increases what we as consumers pay for
“everything and then meanwhile as President Trump makes threats and then de-escalates the war”
there's just been this tremendous whiplash on Wall Street as markets sell off and then rally. I talked about all this last week with Katie Klingensmith she's the chief investment strategist for the financial advisor Edelman financial engines. What we often see during times of heightened
uncertainty and volatility is we'll see a big day in markets and a terrible day in markets and a
big day in markets and a terrible day in markets nobody enjoys that. And as she points out that can
“make everyone just not sure what to do next whether we're talking investors on Wall Street or all of”
us on mean street. Let's just talk about reality here though the president says extreme things all the time and then backs away almost all the time why have investors this year been reacting in such extreme ways sell by. Well the the Iran war is a little different than all the tariffs whiplash we saw last year I mean what happens next in this case is not just up to the president a lot does depend on how Iran responds to what he does and the war has already had that real impact on gas
“and diesel prices that's maybe more immediate than the price spikes we saw with some of the more”
extreme tariffs Trump unveiled a year ago and then kind of moderated. But war is also just harder to unwind than tariffs this is how Klingensmith puts it. We are likely to see higher oil prices even if we see a quick de-escalation of the conflict because there has been extensive structural damage done to oil refineries and infrastructure in the release. And as she points out that damage will take a lot more time to fix even if the war ends tomorrow. Our investors and observers ever suspicious
about the way the president keeps moving the markets up and down. Well some investors tell me this is just what Trump does and says this is how he negotiates and they're trying to shrug off the noise and we mean focused on what else is going on in the economy. But what the president does and says still has real impact in the markets. His threat yesterday to wipe out civilization pushed markets down. The ceasefire seems likely to push them back up. And to your point Steve this is a
pattern that we've seen a few times since the war began and observers have noticed a lot of well-time stock trades in both traditional markets and the newer prediction markets. And here's Maria Aspen, thanks so much. Thank you. And that's up for us for this Wednesday, April 8th,
Line Steve, and Skip. And I'm Layla Fauden. Today's episode of a first was edited by Rebecca
Matzler Jerry Holmes, Raphael Nom, Hammondon, Brad DC, and Alice Wolfleet. It was produced by Ziyad Buch and Avah Hookatch. Our director is Katie Klein. We get engineering support from Misha Highness, our technical director is Carly Strange. And our supervising producer is Michael Lipkin. Join us again tomorrow.
