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“I used to be this key professor that everyone said nice things about, and then when I got big because of you,”
people started actually looking at my shit and saying, "This makes no sense." Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine in the box media podcast network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Um, where are you right now?
Where are you? I'm back in New York. I get back last night. I knew it. Yeah, I love coming back here. I don't know if this is my happy place, but it's definitely my let's go to shame
are going to get fucked up, place. Okay, but let me ask a question, the Pieda tear tax. What is, did you hear about this with Hockel and Mom Donnie? I mean, if you're banging a French dude, you got to wear a condom, so what is that? What does that mean? It's for people who don't actually live in New York. They're taxing your real estate.
That would be you. I'm going to get a Pieda tear tax. Well, I'm glad you announced that publicly such that they know have to know how to penetrate my LLCs and like attempt to hide my tax. They're already on to Can Griffin. You're like, you're doing your job for them.
I'm just saying that's, that's who they're noting has a Pieda tear. Yeah, a Pieda tear. What the fuck is with that? People who don't live in New York who have a second home and doesn't act don't actually live here,
“have to pay a tax. That's what's happening.”
You know, I'm glad to participate and support our Navy and great parks. It's an honor for me. Isn't that what Rich people say? Is that they love paying their taxes at 12% tax rate? Yeah, I don't know. Let's see how much it is.
High value probably is over five million.
It's okay. That's a bummer. Yeah, that's you. Oh, fuck that. That $10 million apartment could face 50 to 200k per year extra tax. Yeah, what? Just done. You know, it'll raise about 500 million for the city of New York to help bring good
services to the good people of New York to sing. I say, let them. I say, let the homeless rain and let the subway go to shit. I can't afford that. Oh, my god. Oh, my god. Well, you have to rethink things anyway. I just so glad to tell you about your tax news and just paying the taxes. Literally up. This is so, like, I wasn't such a good mood this morning and you show up.
And I thought you knew how to buy your hands. And basically put a bull's eye on my forehead for the New York State control are there is not a bull's eye. Oh my god, they know it. I rent a studio in Goannas just so everyone knows that I don't own a place here. It's not a bull's eye, Scott. And they know it. They know they know. You talk about where you live. Oh my god, forget I'm not. You're not blaming me for this
Piazza tear. I say, I say if you're fucking serious, you cost me a quarter of a million dollars. Let's get to the news. There's so much going on besides Piazza. Your new name is Piazza. Yeah, Piazza. You are Piazza. You know what you kind of are. Anyway, let's do a rundown of the latest with Iran. President Trump says the war is very close to over again. As we tape this Iranian officials and Pakistan's military chief are set to meet and to Iran to discuss messages exchange
by Iran in the US. Meanwhile, Iran's military has threatened shipping in the Red Sea if the US continues.
It's blockade of Iranian ports.
threatening to block to fully block the state of hormones is the right move right now.
Because many people -- because if freedom of navigation for the last 150 years has been a key component of the global economy, it's a general accepted principle that the state of Malachi, the state of Singapore, if Indonesia, Malaysian, Singapore decide one day to exert their geopolitical power and get tens of billions of dollars to take it block the state. Each of could block the Suez Canal. And so if there isn't a multilateral force that keeps this thing open,
“it just sets a terrible precedent. Now, how we got here, I think a lot of people have very”
valid arguments around, well, we broke and now we're asking the world to fix it. But I think it's actually a good strategy to say, okay, if you want the state's block, we're going to make them block for everyone including all entry into Iranian ports, which I think is the right move. What is really unusual about all of this, and then we're going to get to this, is that the markets are up, which is just -- it really seems like the markets have totally dislocated.
Yeah, let's go ahead, I'm sorry. Yeah, the S&P is up 2.6% in last five days, just they are going up, because they feel that they'll be some -- some clobbing of the hormones, correct? I mean, with war as Scott Besson call it, this straight of her moves. But go ahead. There's a few things happening. I've said this for a while. I think the Nasdaq and the Dow are the two most damaging metrics in the world, because they give people a false sense of how of the prosperity and well-being in the world.
And the reality is America is energy independent. And so there's actually some stocks that are
up 20 to 40% in the oil sector. So it's not a defense risk to us. There is the market seemed to be saying that the war will at some point be resolved sooner rather than later, and that the oil flow through hormones will begin again. You also have this unusual situation where in the last three bit major conflicts, the US who was involved in, or three exogenous shocks, the Gulf War, the Iraq War, and COVID, what ended up happening was the markets were way down. And initially,
in March, at the outset of the war, the markets declined 10%. But in each instance, there's been a rip back, and the following year, the stocks were up. So people have been buying the dip, and basically what's happened now is people buy the dip sooner, and the markets recovered based on the historical pattern of the market surging after. Sure, but it's still a mess there. It's created by Trump. It was unnecessary, right? The way he's doing it. Well, that's a political statement, and you can
agree or not agree. I'm just talking about with the markets. The markets have totally disassociated here. They have, and I think, you know, Stephanie Ruel actually had some a really good take on this week, where she was talking about why they're like this, and they just feel they're just trading.
“That's what she said, the ups and downs. They don't care about anything else. They just have”
watched the history. But also, look at who this is hurting. Gas is gas prices are, you know, brand crude is up. You know, the European benchmarks up 32%. The price of gasoline in America is up 36% brand oil futures are up 31%. But let's be honest, who does this hurt? It hurts the lower half
of the mayor. Oil prices doesn't don't really impact you in me, Cara. And the reality is 10% of
the top desol of American citizens now are now responsible for 50% of consumer spending. They are 90% of the stocks. Do they care of the gases at six bucks? I mean, it's an interesting media headline. But the reality is the stock market is now a proxy for companies that are mostly invested in technology and some oil companies. You could argue some consumer companies will get heard, because consumers will stop. We'll spend less. But wealthy people just aren't affected by this.
Right. Which is the point you made. I'm going to introduce one of the things I interviewed Jose Andre's this week at the semifurcle. And he was talking about fertilizer prices and how people you know, people across the world eat hand to mouth. And he was noting that he said you and I, you know, it'll be irritating to pay four or five to six dollars at the gas station. And it will, it will hurt us, but not in the way it hurts people around the world. And also fertilizer
prices for farmers in the Midwest and added to the tariffs with Canada because the two places we
“get fertilizer from. I believe the United States primarily reports fertilizer from Canada and I think”
Russia. Anyway, we have an issue with everybody else. And so the stock market doesn't reflect people's lives. That's exactly right. That's right. So one of the things that house Democrats are doing, and you told them to act, and I don't know if you think this is a thing to do, but they just filed six articles of impeachment against defense secretary Pete Hegg says, I think they're getting ready as Roman manuals started to make some moves high crimes and
misdemeanors related to Iran. And by the way, Hegg Seth, I must note, he read a fake Bible quote from
Hold Kitchen during first service at the Pentagon on Wednesday.
time, he's supposedly operations being prepared for Cuba. They're moving to Cuba. Even as the
Trump administration continues to beef with the Pope, which is a whole other thing. And so I think, despite the fact that, yes, the stock market is reflecting something else. You and I might not be as affected other people. This is beyond political. It's now economic for most people, which I think gets misted. You know, it doesn't get misted in all this, but it has a real impact. Including this beef with the Pope, let's listen to a clip now, JD Vance's entered the conversation,
newbie Catholic JD Vance at turning point USA event this week, where of course, nobody showed up,
“which was kind of astonishing. Let's listen. But I think that it's important in the same way”
that it's important for the vice president of the United States to be careful when I talk about matters of public policy. I think it's very, very important for the Pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology. Well, I'm sorry, the Pope shouldn't talk about matters of theology. Isn't that exactly who should be discussing it? He has to be careful. He should be careful, even though he's a very well-regarded theologian, but JD Vance has some words for him.
He's, I think he's torpedoing his 2028 chances by picking a fight. He's decided still that he needs to have such a CB session, actually. This is a politically stupid move for him because evangelicals are actually swing voters. They were sort of a toss up with Biden and then they went hard for Trump. If he doesn't get evangelicals, he's not going to be the nominee and he's clearly decided that it makes more sense. I mean, quite, I don't get this at all because if he were to come out and say
those comments while I respect what Trump said, I feel like the Pope's comments were all
timed. I still have an issue and I will not be critical or if he came out slightly against Trump,
Trump might be furious at him. Trump's not going to dump his VP at this point and JD Vance
“needs evangelicals. I mean, this was just a really stupid thing and also just because I think it's”
important to be as offensive as possible and convince people that I am not in fact running for president. You know how a little boy saved the priest's life. Oh, no, no, no, we're not doing. No, we're not doing. We're not doing. We're not. Okay, never mind. I want to. I respect you. I got a picture of you behind me. Never mind. Let's move on. You can't a lump on a scrub. He found a lump on a scrub. No, no, no, no, no. Coppoles over two priests and says, we're looking for two child molesters and
the priest's look at each other and then look to the cop and say, we'll do it. Oh, my god. Okay, we're not insulting the Catholic church right now because Trump is doing so. I think the whole thing is insane. And, you know, I know it's a joke about Pete Hagseth quoting from pulp fiction. He probably did an AI search and thought it was that, right? That's my guess. That's probably what happened in one of his dumb minions added it in. But it's a fake Bible, but these people are so
performatively religious. They don't even, they don't even read the Bible. They just quote from pulp fiction because they don't know the difference. And if you were actually someone who's really religious, you do know the difference. And with the vice president, it just literally, let me just take one more point. The Pope is an American citizen. He should be able to say when he wants, by the way, I don't, he remains an American. I assume he remains an innocent person, despite being a Pope.
But he doesn't lose those first amendment rights. But he's talking about peace. He's talking about tyrants. He's talking about everything Jesus talked about. And solidifying his word. You get
when 500 Jewish mothers convert to Catholicism, Cara. You get critical mass.
Critical mass. I think that's pretty good. I think that's going to be right. We're going to want this is really disastrous. This fight with the Pope is going to win. No, don't go up against El Papa, especially this Papa. He's very good. He's very good. This is a good Papa. Like,
“oh, man, I even want to go in the church. That's how big good Papa it is. I'm like, I'm going back.”
Like, I'm going back in. You're going to go to one of those crazy, unitarian churches with some lady with blue hair, baptizing support or rescue dogs. You'll end up with one of those not a church. No, no, I won't. I don't like those. Are go to glide next time at San Francisco. That's awesome. I love glide. I love glide. It's a wonderful church. It's a wonderful, I don't like unitarian churches. I mean, my ex-wife took me when we were married. And I was like, do they stand for anything? Like,
if for some reason, the Catholic and me that go. It's too politically correct for you. No, they would like, I was like, it was like, it was like, everybody, everything. They believed everything. And I was, and I listen, I have a lot of respect for all religions, but I had to leave. There's your land acknowledgement. I don't, I believe some religions are worse than others. Let me just say that. Oh, I did not worse. There's lovely people. I just want to, I just, I got interrupted by my poorly,
Poorly-timed jokes.
begin impeachment proceedings of Hexa. I think that's stupid. I don't think you, I think if we've learned
“or one thing we should have learned as Democrats, is that unless you have the votes lined up,”
you don't do it. It comes across. I just don't think America needs another impeachment. But I thought you said for them to signal what they're going to do. Isn't that kind of signaling what they're going to do? No, this is, in my view, this is what they do. An impeachment nostalgia tour, the Democrats don't need again. At this point, it wouldn't work. I'm all for impeaching the president at this point and the Secretary of Defense. You don't do it until you do the votes
to lock. You announce it and then start the vote the next day. Otherwise, it's just performative and pisses off the other side into the waste of time. This is what you do. You announce legitimate
legal action and coordination with a state AG to go after certain individuals who have committed
actual crimes and there's a lot of them in this administration. This is performative. It's political and we're going to again look stupid. Okay. Anyway, I'm going to move on because the chaos follows Trump for a because he's back to his Jerome Powell fight. He's like an old man and forgot he was fighting with someone and then remembered. He said if he doesn't step down next money's going to fire him, like even though he has more time on the board and also says the DOJ probe of
Paul Powell on the Fed should continue. Powell's Fed share term officially ends on May 15th. His term is Fed Governor is up in 2028. Usually they leave when they when they finish their chair, but he doesn't have to and he plans to stay on his acting chair until his successful
“Kevin Warsh is confirmed. Powell says that's what the law calls for. Warsh is confirmationary”
schedule for next week, but Senator Tom Tillis who I interviewed as said confirmed again. He won't confirm him until the DOJ probe is resolved. All this from the prosecution of the U.S. Attorney Janine Piero's office showed up at the Fed this week trying to get a tour of the building's renovations that turned away. She's trying hard to become Attorney General FYI. He can't if he fires Trump, but how will he's in big trouble? He's going to talk of this one,
right? Presumably. He's back to it though. It's three people in a room with Claude and chat GPT and every time the temperature and association with Epstein gets a bunch between the link between Trump and Epstein and its presence in the media gets a bunch of certain temperature. They say throw something out and distract everybody. And this is just another one because I don't even think he legally has the right to remove Powell from the Board of Governors. So his term doesn't
mean until January, 2028. So this is just again, I believe he knows and his people have said, I mean there's two things going on. Either Grandpa just says to it as he's he's thinking and maybe that's true. Or if you give him more credit than that, it's another attempt to distract from from Epstein. I don't want to say feel bad for Kevin Wars, but his entire hearing is going to be about to roam Powell, not about Kevin Wars. And what I've said before is as long as Powell was
on the Board of Governors, he's the de facto chair, because anything he says 11 of the 12
“governors are going to nod their heads. The chairs. That's why Trump wants him going. That's exactly”
right, but he does not have the power to do this. And you are going to have several Republican senators find their testicles and come out in favor of Chairman Powell remaining on the Board of Governors. But I think Trump knows that in just today said I need something to keep Epstein out of the news. I'll go after Powell again. Yeah, my favorite is fiction. My favorite is they're going to start talk about it's talking about Epstein to distract from Iran. Yeah, I know. Yeah, that was, that was
because that's what that that was the Melania faint, I guess. We'll see what happens if they're not going to fire Powell. They're not just not. Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break. And when we come back, Amazon makes a big acquisition. Support for this show comes from Quince. If you're participating in a time-owner tradition of cleaning out your closet this spring, you might want to consider replacing some of those old clothes with high quality pieces from Quince. Quince makes stylish
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billion. As it tries to catch up to SpaceX, Starlink. Under the agreement, Amazon gets global stars existing
satellites and infrastructure which will operate alongside Amazon's own network now called Leo after the Pope, I guess. Amazon says the deal will enable it to build direct to device satellite system with a rollout expected in 2020-28 FCC chairman friend and cars as his agency is very open-minded to the deal, and the FCC is taking all gas no breaks approach to expanding the U.S. space economy. He kind of has to. It's kind of has to. What we talk about this because obviously Amazon isn't going
away and they're trying to solidify this network for themselves to be at least the number two player here. My big stockpick for 2025 was alphabet. We got that one right. My big tech stockpick for
“26 is Amazon. This is what I think Amazon is going to do. They are going to build a viable competitor”
to Starlink using chypersa platform. This is another step in that. It's called Leo now. It's called Leo.
I'm sorry, Project Leo. Basically, they're about 24 satellites here and it's never been profitable,
but Amazon closed up 3% and this is what I think Amazon strategy is. Amazon's going to launch a phone and then they're going to offer Amazon Prime Plus which will offer you a phone and lightning fast connectivity into your home. They're going after AT&T Verizon and Comcast and basically going to offer you connectivity with Amazon Prime and they need the satellites to do this. So why would they buy a non-profitable satellite company? Again, see above 24 satellites, they get
spectrum. They get radio waves, the wireless signals including Wi-Fi travel on. The government owns these and issues specific licenses for them, but spectrum is auctioned off by the FCC and extremely expensive so they get that. They could do for B to C. Again, Amazon price. They could sell Wi-Fi to Prime subscribers. It B to B. They could sell private wireless networks to serve its warehouses, delivery hubs, robots, drones, robots and drones need this connectivity to communicate
wirelessly. Constantly, it's much easier if it's cost-efficient of Amazon has its own network.
Yes, so it's a strong number, too.
It's the strongest infrastructure company in the world. It's an extension of their investment in the logistics network. And right now, Project Leo has 240 operational satellites. It plans to ramp up its network by deploying 3,200 in Earth's low orbit by 2029. Starlink has over 10,000. This is definitely catch up. But Amazon has 150 million homes to offer this service to overnight.
“Right, the relationship with consumers. So you have to go out and buy Starlink and people do love it.”
I have to say, oddly enough, Jose Andres has a huge beef with Musk over USAID saying he's killing,
essentially saying he's killing people. He said, we used to turn like it's critical to our
world central kitchen operations. And I think he would like an alternative. But he definitely said, it's really a shame. I wish that Elon was around and knocked this other one. Which is, you know, it's hugely damaging to their efforts across the world feeding people. But between that fertilizer and that, like the cuts USAID, they're facing a huge uphill battle against hunger across the world. But one of the things that's happening here is you get an old, this is what's happened with Tesla.
This is what happened. There's going to be number two. Now, we'll have an impact on the SpaceX IPO. I doubt it. I think it's going to be like, it's going to run oddly enough, interestingly enough, Google is a big owner of it of the SpaceX IPO. They're going to make like many commas of money from this deal. So that should, that would, that'll be an interesting thing because many years ago, Yahoo owned a big piece of Google. I don't know if you remember in the beginning. And that's
what saved them for a while, like having that investment in Google that they made. And now, in this case, Google's going to make a lot of money from these SpaceX. But I don't think the SpaceX IPO will be damaged in any way, correct? I'm going to perspective. No, it's, it's arguably one of the strongest rants in the world right now. And people are excited about it. It'll go out wildly of a price. And they're going to get a slight bump. It'll be the biggest IPO of of of 26. The best
IPO of 26 will be on throw up, which will get out ahead of open AI because it has more momentum.
“But it's going to be, again, if you look at SpaceX, I think 18 billion in revenue, 6 billion in”
profits. So when it's going, it's going out at 100 times revenue. It's going 24 per cent a year. When Google went public, it was going 240 per cent a year in trading at 10 times revenues. So SpaceX
incredible company, the most overvalued IPO in history, the answer is yes. This is just insane
the valuation they're talking about. Yeah. And I think it's great that there's another, there's more satellite efforts like this. There has to be at least two or three. I mean, it's not going to be more than that, by the way, because the costs are so huge, but it's good for having run for their money. Speaking of open AI and anthropic, open AI is distancing itself from Microsoft and closing up to Amazon, which is interesting. In a memo sent to staff, open AI's revenue cheap,
Denise Dressor said the Microsoft partnership has limited the company's ability to meet enterprises where they are, no, no shit. On the other hand, Dressor said the company's Amazon deal has generated frankly staggering demand. Dressor also used the memo to go after anthropic accusing the rival building its strategy on, quote, fear, restriction and the idea that a small number of elites should control AI. Obviously, they're throwing, they're trying to hurt and
thropic in the race to the IPO. They're throwing Microsoft onto the bus. And interestingly, speaking of anthropic news, the company is recently received multiple offers from VCs to
invested value assistance as high as $800 billion. And anthropic has briefed the Trump administration
about its new mythos model, which is not being released to public do as we talked about last week. Due to its alleged cyber security capabilities, Deso's own Washington Post said that efforts by the Pentagon to distort anthropic or stupid, which was interesting this week. So they're fighting out in court. I suspect the Trump administration is going to start dropping that soon enough. But what talk a little bit about this open AI memo, which was obviously leaked in order to
get it out there. And this idea of breaking from Microsoft, slightly up to Amazon and attempting
“to staying anthropic in some way, which I think is stupid in my estimation.”
Andthropic has more momentum than any company in the world I know. It's gone. I mean, it's gone at the end of 2025, which wasn't that long ago. It's ARR. It was 9 billion. It's now 30 billion. It's more than triple detainable recurring revenue in four months. And by the way, Open AI is just 25 billion. So the little engine that was kind of an afterthought to open AI just 12, 18 months ago is now a bigger business than Open AI. And this is the first
Time to anthropic has led on revenue.
better business because that growth is almost exclusively enterprise driven, which is a better business. So what is open AI doing here by release? They release the memo. It's not pretends. But this is what they were doing. What's the message? This has become co-curses, Pepsi.
“And yeah, I think it feels desperate. I don't either trying to, they're trying to weaponize”
the governing against them. They're trying to ship post them. These guys hate each other. It's, it's the Hatfield's versus the McCoy's. And anthropic has 1,000 customers paying over
$1 million a year. That's up from just 500 in February. The number of customers spending over
$1 million a year has doubled in the life. So I don't seem to care about the Pentagon thing. And all you would thought they might, but it looks like they don't. It looks like they don't. So the numbers here, you know, give you some more data. 80% of anthropics revenues come from business clients who are quite frankly are just more reliable and less margins sensitive than consumers. Versus 40% of open AI, 70% of every incremental dollar spent on AI coming from the enterprise
is going to anthropic. They raise $30 billion in their series G at a $380 billion valuation, which is ridiculously low compared to the $850 billion valuation that open AI did guaranteeing a 17% return, which could crush previous investors if they don't. If they have to go out lower than that, they also said, I mean, both companies are exploring an IPO this year. And anthropic projects, uh, positive free cash flow by 2027, opening AI is said they're going to break
even in 2030. But the bottom line is, Dario and Modi is just showing himself to be a much more
competency. Oh, then Sam Alden. Right. Let me ask you a question. This focus on consumer. Here's what I say. Open AI definitely focus on consumer and being like cleanaxe or Google, right? That wasn't what they were going for. The one that everyone thinks of Chad GPT is cleanaxe, right, or Google, or whatever, the representative of everything. So they rely on the consumers, and then they have a really, they start, Sam Alden starts to get a very bad consumer reputation.
So he, like, like, and up and up to an including people attacking his home, right? He, which is painous. They have relied on consumer relationships, which are very easy to break, right? Suddenly
“you become the bad guy. And I think that, that's one of things. But bear hugging Amazon and pushing”
away Microsoft. What is that? If you're in the room, what do you think the strategy is? The honest truth is, I don't know. I guess there's some ego involved here on some dynamics behind the scenes that I just don't understand. But let me be clear. It's not easy to build a consumer brand.
It can be very powerful. I'm not suggesting I'm biased because all my businesses have always been
B to B. And the, and the one business I did B to see Red envelope was just so much fucking harder that I found than doing building a B to B business. Now, what I think the dynamic here is the following. The reason why anthropic is going to be worth more and get to the IPO, starting line faster than open AI as an enterprise dominant business as opposed to a consumer business of open AI is not necessarily the one that's much better than the other. But here's the difference in terms of competitive dynamics.
You can get as a consumer, a really outstanding LLM and AI for free. If you're a company, if you're a claw ox looking for a $3 million enterprise wide LLM AI offering, there's no free alternative. So in some, the substitutes on the consumer level are just much greater than the substitutes at an enterprise level, which says to me whoever dominates enterprise has it just a much better business. Also, with just, with just a duopoly, if one is perceived as
better, which right now anthropic is perceived as better in the enterprise, enterprises are much less consumer sensitive, because if they're going to implement technical debt, they don't care if it's 30% more expensive. Is it a mistake to then say, what we didn't get in the enterprise fast up due to Microsoft, which may in fact be the case. And now we're going to have a sense. Why are they doing it? You're going to piss off one of the
“most important measured thoughtful people in tax such in a dollar. Who batches in a sense?”
Back to when you were in trouble. Yeah, and it shows it shows that you're not getting along with it. You have these fights behind the scenes. You don't say that publicly that you don't get into a war with Microsoft. Well, they didn't. It was a memo that got out, but they leaked the memo. I mean, this is my feeling. But one of the things they have to do is they have a problem with their image, because they're the face of AI. They're the face of AI, right? Well, Dario looks like a hero
from a marketing point of view at the very least. And so that's, I think, the real problem is
Sam Altman represents AI, which everybody is hating on, like young people, al...
All, everybody has a problem with it. And when the problem shows you look at someone like Sam Altman and not Dario, you know, Dario's not getting the kind of hatred that Altman is getting now, which I think is a problem. But why hug Amazon too? Because Amazon is executing against infrastructure
“like no one's business. And if you want to, I mean, arguably Amazon from an enterprise level,”
it's the most discerning consumer in the world. And Amazon is the best infrastructure company in the world. So, but I think there's some ego here. I think someone got pissed off at someone, but you don't get into a public tip with Microsoft. By the way, this in terms of stocks, Microsoft is a multiple of free cashless cheaper than it's ever been. I think Microsoft's a really good buy right now. But it looked that anthropic has so much momentum right now. And Open AI does not get this
calcium is saying the odds that Sam Altman being replaced as CO are up to 27%. I mean, for the first time, Sam Altman being replaced by the end of the year is a real possibility. Because Open AI, public tips with Microsoft to be supposed to be your partner in this, throwing up totally shitting the bad in the enterprise market, all this negative PR and press. I mean, and there's just no getting around it. Anthropic is worth more than Open AI right now.
“And so, I think Sam, I think they were smart to be focused. They're going to do away with”
that ridiculous fucking nonsense from IO. That was the stupidest acquisition of 24, whatever it was.
That's going to be a six billion dollar ride off. There's smart to stay
focused. But this is, this is a tale of two cities. And one city is skyrocketing. And that's anthropic. And the other is burning up on reentry. And that's, that's Open AI. But the posturing is important, right? So Altman is fighting with Musk on, on, on that case, which is going to be full. It's going to try. It looks like this case. So that's going to bring unnecessary, no matter what Elon fights, you know, with a lot of sorts. So it doesn't, he'll land
some blows even if he's, and make them look bad. He will. Even if he looks, he doesn't care because he's like the villain. So it's fine if he makes other people look like a villain. I mean, from from a public perspective, there are also, you know, it's not just Altman. It's like someone like Chris Lane who I find very aggressive, right? And this is a very aggressive group of people that sounds like they're not getting a long intern. You sort of feel rumbles of that.
“You know, the mistakes of not embracing enterprise and going full scale into popularity. I think”
is always, you don't make that transition, as you said. It's really difficult. And quietly,
this other group has done this. Now I agree, they shouldn't be fighting with Microsoft, but they made, they made the mistake. And now they're blaming their partner for that, right? The ability to meet enterprises where they are, because they're actually, they look like they're fling. They're competing with Microsoft. They are competitors in that, in that space. So anyway. But what's to be gained? What's to be gained by shit posting Microsoft in public?
I don't know. What do they get? Just to say, we're serious about the end. We're going to really compete in the enterprise. This now or serious. I don't know. I don't know. I just, I don't understand this memo whatsoever. But what enterprise is going to hire open AI because they've
been critical of Microsoft. I don't, I absolutely don't get it. These, these people have
ego. Section Adella doesn't need, doesn't need to sit. I mean, Microsoft could write off its investment in open AI. It's quite frankly, the market has already done that. The market has taken Microsoft stock down, I don't know, 20 or 25% in the last six months. The trouble in mudville has already been perceived by the market with respect to Microsoft's playing in traffic with open AI and that their investment in open AI may not end up being, you know, the kicker
in the afterburner, everyone thought it was. It doesn't got in at better rates, essentially. But go ahead. And a guy like Section Adella doesn't scare easily. I don't, I don't, I absolutely don't understand who approved this public spat on the, and it says to me that open AI does not have a board that they would say, oh, yeah, that's a good idea. Let's get in a war with Microsoft. There's ego here. Someone got pissed off at something. Yeah, so the anthropic going after anthropic
as being fear restriction idea this small is just sort of the so-back or looking, just to, when you started attacking the number two, there's something going on, and especially, I think they were trying to get reporters interested in this run rate and, you know, inflation of revenues, which by the way, no one really cares about what these companies at this point, they want to know who the leader is going to be. Anyway, I mean, they should care, but they don't.
There's a general, crucible rule, fundamental truth in branding and marketing is that when you're
The market leader, or you want to be perceived as the market leader, which I ...
we are the leader, and we want to be perceived as the market leader, you never referenced the
competition. Right. You don't. You just never, a visa was a client of mine back in my brand strategy days. It's profit. And I said, why wouldn't you talk about this versus mastercard and it goes, where the market leader, we never referenced the competition. When you reference the competition, you're immediately saying they're a competitor. And when you're the market leader, what you want to say is we have no Coke never referenced Pepsi, Coke never did a taste test. It's like we don't even,
as far as we're concerned, Pepsi doesn't exist because we're fucking Coca-Cola. I used to do when they were talking about competitors. I'm like, who? I'd be do things like, I'm sorry, I didn't see it. Like, I would. Yeah, I don't. The best. I don't do that. Well, I always like Scott.
“I don't have Scott. Who's that? Who's that? What? I think someone said he has a picture of me.”
Yeah, I think he's behind him on a podcast. The, the personal learning here is the following,
or what I finally come to piece with. When people should post you or criticize you online,
the best revenge hands down in difference. Just in difference. You've got good on that. Don't mention it. No, you skip mad at certain people attacking you at all. Well, I wasn't used to it. I used to be this key professor that everyone said nice things about, and then when I got big because of you, people started actually looking at my shit and saying, this makes no sense. And I would get upset. Anyway, I'm fine now. Yeah, and then I discovered
edible. Yeah, it's good. Anyway, you got much better up. And I have to say, I'm getting off a Twitter, which you did first. I will, no, I'm sorry for making the mistake last week. Anyway, another interesting story. We're going to go on a quick break. We come back. We'll talk about a potentially united American Airlines merger seems unlikely, but here we go. Support for this show comes from Harvey AI. The future of law is
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American Airlines directly to Donald Trump, of course. The two companies combined what account for about 40% of the U.S. domestic. Flying capacity, industry experts and law makes already pushing back flagging major antitrust concerns. I mean, even I know that. As one analyst puts at the Justice Department doesn't object to that, what would they object to? Trump is staying quiet for now with the press secretary Keone. I would say he has no opinion on a potential merger. I mean, I don't mind
“this guy trying it, but why not? It's the last days of the nearo's empire here, so why not?”
But this seems like something that would be dead on arrival. I just don't. I don't see it. I mean, I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, but you just summarized it perfectly. And that is the last
Days of nearo.
so many mergers proposed because everyone's going to go. There's no fucking way, an FTC or a DOJ
“that is not in a deep coma would allow this. So if we're, you know, if we're what are the, you know,”
two most dominant play, if you're just going to see mergers like crazy because they're going to go, this is our last chance because this absolutely makes no sense from a concentration of an awfully standpoint. This should not be allowed to happen. It would create the largest airline
on Earth, 30 to 40 percent of U.S. domestic capacity. And I don't know if anyone's noticed.
Airline tickets are skyrocketing and why have I just both? I was looking at a one way from Miami to London business class and it was 11 grand. I know it's crazy. Kirby's argument to the administration. It combined our line would be a stronger competitor internationally. Okay. Yeah. He noted two thirds of long haul seats from two from U.S. on foreign carriers with 60 percent of passengers are American framing it as a trade deficit issue. And also American, I love
“airlines, I love aviation. Delta does the best job domestically. Jet Belloo's mint is the best”
product. But American has been America's has the best, has the worst product. They're the
weakest of the big 311 million in that income last year on 54 billion in sales, basically break
even. And it carries 25 billion in long-term debt more than its rivals. On the other hand, United, which is a better run company, did 3.4 billion on 59 billion. Americans, but American Airlines stock jump nearly 10 percent on the news. So what does that say that it could happen? This can't happen. This will happen. Well, the market thinks in my because again, see above the guy. It's just fucking ridiculous that CEOs go kiss the ass of the president to
try and get a merger through. He should have nothing to do with this. But the, the anti-trust problems here are striking. There are 289 routes with the two carriers overlap and combining them with leave only one or two airlines serving that route. See above increase in prices. They will fucking simmer so hard. Some of the, some of the routes that overlap are Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, New York, Phoenix, Charlotte could require divesting entire hub operations in some cities. And
the DOJ previously blocked the Jet Blue Spirit deal, which was a fraction of this size. So this is exactly the kind of deal that shouldn't even be considered if there was a DOJ or an FTC that was independent and looked at consumer prices. And these consumer mergers and the lack of regulation does two things. It transfers capital from labor and from consumers to shareholders, full stop. And it's been a one way flow of capital and power for the last 30 years in the DOJ
“and FTC have almost no reviews anymore. I mean, it's like if you want to save money, get rid of the”
DOJ and the FTC, what the fuck are they doing now? They can't, they absolutely cannot do this. I mean, you know, it's interesting because on Monday, you're seeing significant pushback, we'll talk about this more and two things I want to talk about. I'm money. The significant pushback to paramount now, a lot of Hollywood is now like, got the pitch of works out, essentially. I don't know if they can do anything about at this point. But you see them like really organizing the
Senate at Senacam, all these places. There's all this pushback and again, David Ellison wouldn't show up for a hearing in Congress about this, just for personal reasons. But there's just a lot of pushback there. And you sort of see it beginning to coalesce these ideas of no, I don't think so, which is interesting. You'll see if this happens. Like, I feel like people are quite in a mood to stop these things now. And that's going to be, they're going to overreach on the other side, probably. But it deals like,
this is like, I can't even believe this guy did this. Like, I just think, well, okay. And Trump has
no political capital to take this on at this point. No way. It's just never happening. I don't,
I don't see it. I don't see how it is. I need to correct the record. The DOJ and the FTC do serve a purpose. They did, they did decide that live-nature was in monopoly, which was the right decision. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see where it's going. There's a lot of pushback and all these things but you're right. They're going to keep trying to do so. As things come forward, and then we'll get to a normal level again, hopefully. One thing that's interesting about five million kids have
signed up for Trump accounts. A 1.2 million eligible for a thousand dollar treasury seed deposits. The accounts were created through Trump's big, beautiful bill and are set to officially launch July 4th. The Bank of New York, Melan will manage the accounts in robberhood and will build Trump accounts app. What do you think about Robin Hood known for getting people into risky trades involved in this? Obviously, another set up to Trump and some fashion, but I have several
Friends who are just doing it.
use it to save for college or whatever you want to save for for kids. Any thoughts on this? I love this concept. I remember meeting with a guy named Alex Funt first and bird a couple years ago and he was pitching me on the idea of baby bonds and he was very passionate about it and he's been very involved in it. I love the concept of at the very outset, giving you know,
every infant born, giving me some money and letting compound, you know, the most powerful
force in the universe. I would have gone much deeper than this for $40 billion a year. You could give $7,000 to every baby and then I would totally infantilize them and not let them touch it to their 65. You give you spend $40 billion a year and then in 20 or 30 years, you announce in another 20 or 30 years when no longer going to need social security because everyone's going to have a million bucks and 65 interest rates dive and it pays for itself. But our Congress doesn't want
to think faster than the fucking two inch decks. So it's a danger here of riskiness for people's
“like, I mean, this is free money and that's what I can, you know, someone's cheapest is said,”
I took a Trump account. I'm like, are you kidding? Grab it. Like, absolutely take it. Oh, why wouldn't you? Yeah, it's incredible. Just to give you a sense of compound interest, you know, my kid's going to call it next year when he was born in 2000 and almost my kid born 2000 and 2007. I put $10,000 and I think it's called a $529 New York account. I'm worried about college. I don't, I was a clinical professor making 160 grand a year living in faculty housing
and so I thought, okay, I'll scrape together 10 grand and I didn't do it again. I was stupid. I didn't do it again. I just looked it up online because I'm like, oh, what about the $529 I did? Now, granted the markets have ripped. Do you know what that $10,000 is worth? $10,000? $10,000? No, $85. It's still in 18 years and went from 10 to $85. Oh, I put more in. I did them for both
“boys. I paid for all of college with Louis and Alex. I think people have controversies around $521.”
You could have done better in the market, but I just put it away and forgot about it. And I kept I added the maximum amount to it at the time. Yeah, but it's tax, it's tax-free. You can take it out. That's tax-free. I just was like, I don't even want to fight. I know I could probably do better in the market, but I don't care. I had the money. I don't think it was a certain fact. I don't think you could have because because the difference is just explained it. If you invest at $10,000 and I had $85
in the market, say out 100, I'd have to pay. I'd have to pay capital gains on it. Whereas if you apply towards tuition or school supplies, you get to, you don't have to pay taxes on the gains. My point is the idea of giving kids every baby born a retirement account. I wouldn't let them have access
to $18 or $25. The problem is, and the thing that's going to bankrupt our nation, as we continue
to send more and more old people who vote, old people more, vote themselves more money, we have to reduce entitlements for old people. And this is the way to do that. So they're not entitlements. They're investments. I mean, I think the danger, obviously, is if we remove it completely, is people are subject to whatever the necessities of the market. And that's the always been the
“worry, right? That's why it's called social security. There has never been, okay, but you could buy”
any five stocks since the beginning, the beginning of the markets. You could buy any five stocks in the S&P, and if you hold on to them for 10 years, you've never lost money. Because of demographics and innovation, the long-term trajectory of the market. Now, there's been decades where it's gone flat, but over the long, over the long term, there's nothing like the up into the right of the
markets. And I think this is a great idea. I put that money away for my kids, and I never paid a dime
for college because we had been saved. This is the flow. And it was all tax-free, it paid for their dorms, it paid for their food, and Alex eats a lot. And it was great. And I was like, yeah, meal plan. Yeah, Michigan is losing money on Alex. And the only, Louis, the very end of Louis college thing, Alex went to a less expensive college. It was just a little bit of money, but it was zero. It was the best money I ever invested, and I have to say anyway. I was the speaking of which Alex
was your turn 21. Congratulations Alex, you're on your own. All right Alex. Yeah, for you now. Of course he was studying last night. I was like, Alex, go get a drink. He's already done that. I know, but he's like, what might be a good way to do? I was like, I have to study for fluid dynamics. Like, this is a bottom line, or this is a theory you want to tap into. The most profitable business is in the world, tap into one thing. And that is a flaw in our instincts. We're desperate for
affirmation. We're desperate for free gaming. We're desperate for opportunities to procreate. So we buy
For rarries.
in our instincts. You want to reverse that and tap into the following flaw. And that is humans
“are really bad with respect to the time space continuum. What do I mean by that? Because for the majority”
of our time on this planet, we haven't lived past 35. And now we live to 80. People have no sense. Yep, I've got to tell you fast. Time is going to go. And they said, well, the market's strip nine to 10% a year. That's nothing. I'm not going to invest in the market. So I can make more money as a baller opening a restaurant or opening my company goes public. You are going to graduate from college. You're going to blink. You're going to have a couple kids. You're going to have some joy.
You're going to have some grief. And you're going to wake up and you're going to be fucking six years old. It happens so fast. This is what you want to do. You want to at a very young age, figure out a way where you don't even get the cash in your hands, matching programs of work, 529s, baby bonds, automatic withdrawals, and just a little bit of money from an early age. And then blink. You're 65 and you look at that account. And you have a shit ton of money.
This is a flaw. This is your revenge on the, this is a way you put scaffolding on the instincts of the flaw. Yeah, I agree. Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.
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Try Odo for free at Odo.com. That's OdoO.com. Support for the show comes from Odo. Running a business is hard enough. So why make it harder? With it doesn't different apps that don't talk to each other. Introducing Odo, it's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more.
And the best part, Odo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odo for free at Odo.com. That's OdoOO.com. Okay Scott, let's hear up predictions. Is it about all birds? And now that it's an AI business? No, just multiple. No, I had two in one of them was all birds. Okay, so I'll go to that one
because that year prompted me. My prediction was going to be anthropic IPs before Open AI, but that's boring and I've already talked about anthropic. So I'll go to the one you suggested. The All Birds Pivot AI will inspire a much of copycats. You're going to see check, GameStop, rent the runway, all decide their AI companies. So this is what's happened. All birds
are one type sneaker brand. They just sold its IP for 39 million two weeks ago, down from a
$4 billion peak valuation is rebrandering it. Uncomfortable sneaker business. Because rebranding is new bird AI and pivoting to leasing AI chips. GPUs. The company is buying $50 million or secure $50 million in financing by GPUs and leasing the customers. And share spike nearly 900 percent
“at intraday highs on the announcement. So what is this going to do? Just like remember when Bitcoin”
Treasury companies went crazy and all these different companies decided they were now Bitcoin Treasury companies. So we've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well. Long Island I's T Corp rebranded as long blockchain in 2017 to ride the crypto wave and it shares were eventually delisted in the SEC brought insider trading charges. New bird if you will. What I call
New bird will soon be no bird.
fucking jazz hands pivot to AI, the resulted in a massive one-day spike, ton of competitive
“ton of copycats and it doesn't end well. What is it end? How does it end? These companies have”
short term pops. The insiders who get the shares before they announce it dumped the bag and then the people who think this is anything resembling a company with enterprise value end up losing a shit ton of money. It's similar to all the Bitcoin Treasury companies. When you try and it's like remember in the early 2000s, I remember being in a meeting, a board meeting, a Williamsonoma where we seriously contemplated changing the name of the company to Williamsonoma.com because we thought
that would add Gerald or value and Howard Lester who is one of the clearest blue flame thinkers in retail is like, that's just fucking stupid. We're not doing that. Anyways, when you're just
trying to create the illusion you're in a hot area with absolutely no domain expertise, IP or advantage,
sure. Call it AI a pop. If you're in all birds right now, just take it from me, sell, but you're going to see a dozen of these things announced in the next 90 days. It's so stupid. You did market, which is good. All right, I have no predictions today. I predict that Scott Galloway will be a star of my show this weekend. Everybody watch it because Scott is very funny and actually has a lot of serious and significant things to say about healthcare and longevity and it's really really good.
“I don't remember that part. You do. I don't remember saying anything.”
You did. And you sound great. You sound really good. You actually say a lot of substance. It's anyway. He looks great and you get to see him sleep. Anyway, we want to hear from you, send us your questions about business check or whatever's on your mind. Go to NYMag.com/pivot soon a question for the show or call 85551 Pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen Scott University's week on Prof. G. Markets Scott spoke with Katherine Ann Edwards, PhD economist and Bloomberg News
colonists and my AI is only one factor behind the challenges young workers are facing. Let's listen to a clip. Not as if the only thing standing between young workers in a job is what private employers are doing or say they're doing or will do with AI. We have a week economy in a week labor market with terrible social supports and almost no investment in people that don't have a job. There are solutions that don't have to come from just knowing more about AI, but have to come from
holding our policy makers accountable for economic mismanagement. AI is today's story, but there will be another one. Weakness is weakness in the labor market. We don't have great infrastructure for helping people who don't have a job. That's a hundred percent right. It's so true. It's super smart. You'd like her. Yeah. Anyway, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll have lots to talk about next week.
There's so many topics happening and we'll be back next week to do so. Today's show was produced by Leren Aminzo and Marcus Taylor Griffin and Todd Weisman. I need to try to introduce this episode. Manala Marrano edited the video. Special assistance from K-Kaliger and Brad Silvester. Thanks to all of your burrows, Mr. Vera, and Danchilling. Can AI replace
“all these people in this child crew? Is Vox Media's executive producer a podcast?”
Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite Vox platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine in Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at winemag.com/pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business have a great weekend car. Support for the show comes from Odo. Running a business is hard enough. So why make it harder? With it doesn't different apps that don't talk to each other. Introducing Odo. It's the only
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