Trump's Crypto Windfall, Dems' Anti-Establishment Wave, and the Supreme Court’s Big Week

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Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine in the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm

Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Calaway. Scott, I think Mitch McConnell. Dad might be in trouble. This is weekend of burning, so we got a mattress. I feel like it. I don't quite heard the whole thing, right? Yeah. If they pretend, I thought they should have kept respite against Bergon Eyes for a while.

Yeah. What is going on in this country at our anniversary, or 250 at the anniversary?

“I think he was around for the first one, wasn't he? Mitch McConnell?”

No, there he go. There we go. I don't know why I'm thinking of him. I'm like, what's happening

to him? Like, are they hiding him? What is so strange? It was because that other guy came back. It turned out he was depressed. A guy from New Jersey, Tom King, or whatever. So more importantly, I had the chief investment officer, JP Morgan, on, and as I do at the beginning of the show, I told a really crude joke, not all he was on. I don't know. It ends up he's really offended, and he even put in a research note, like six months later,

referencing, or I didn't read it, because I knew I would upset me, that he was upset. So from this point forward, I'm only doing dad jokes until Michael Symbolist, chief investment officer, and JP Morgan, accepts my apology. Michael, we didn't mean to embarrass you. Oh, God, you have, you can't do that. What are you doing? Stopping changed by other people.

“Be yourself, Scott. Well, I just want to, I'm also not a associate path. I think if you”

accept people, it's okay to apologize. Okay. So anyways, I'm now doing dad jokes. Okay, so what do you call a fake noodle? I don't know. An imposta. Oh, so it released the dick jokes. Michael, please forgive me. Otherwise, everyone's going to be forced to listen to my dad jokes. We all have a vested interest in Michael accepting my apology. That was, do not do a joke, like that again. Please, that's in the four-year-olds. Okay, you tell me not to do something.

All right, I'm offended that you're not doing jokes. I'm going to put it in my research note. Let me do it. Why couldn't we find the scarecrow? Okay, why? Because he was outstanding in his field. Oh, no, no. I know. I know. He needs to, he needs to accept my apology. It's only going to get worse. All right, Michael, can you please? It's only going to get worse.

“Mark the fucking up. How are you doing? What are you doing for the fourth?”

I'm not for our anniversary, our fourth of July. What are the curtains say to each other? I don't know. What? Oh, you'reself together. Please, Michael. Please. What is worse than the other? One is their number. What did the strawberry say to the other strawberry? Yeah, we got, please. All right. If we weren't caught in the same bed, we wouldn't be in this jam. That's a little sexual.

You see the problem here, I see the problem. I see the sense of urgency. I see the sense of urgency. Do you know Jamie Diamond? Maybe he asked Jamie to lean on Michael to accept my apology. Well, I'll talk to him. I bet he likes a good dirty joke. No, he's like a fella who likes the dirt. I could see him gaffering to that. He has a fish gaff off. Anyway, um, where are you right now? What are you doing for the fourth of July? Are you doing anything? I'm going to a tractor parade.

You too? Yeah. Um, well, wait. No, I'm going out of big fat boat around Sardinia.

and probably do X. Yeah. Same thing. Yeah. I go to San Diego. And you will tractor

parade in Vermont where, where, where a man, this family rebuilt a barn that was falling down that they had this sort of funky hippie barn. And they re-did the whole thing. And it's beautiful. I have to say it's really funny. I mean, you guys have an open relationship and you're both looking for Lasvans? No. No. No. No. That time is passed for Caras Wisher. Is that so? Yeah. You have any trimmed life crisis yet? I had it. Oh, I saw you on one of my favorite

guys podcast. I love Dan Harris. Oh, yeah. That was good. Yeah. He's so comforting as well. Yeah. Yes. 100%. Yeah. And he has, whenever I was bringing this back to me, whenever I'm mentoring you know, man, he has one of my favorite pieces of advice that I would give to people, which is action absorbs anxiety. No. I love that. You know what? I said about something. Your action's about something. Do some immediately start moving against it and addressing it and you

“feel better. Or anything. Do something else. Yeah. I think that's a really good job.”

Top 10 is a big brother. So you're looking for a little brother. That's so comforting and smart. And why? Yeah. You're going to be gone next week. We have special guest. Oh, who do you know who to guess how so so? I think Scaramoo Chee is one. The mooch. Which is one. I don't like it when the mooch comes down because the download's go out. And we also have Pucks Nat Bellany. Nat Bellany. From the town. The town. Yeah. I like him a lot. I think either he's a lot of, you know,

media stuff. And actually I have to say he and Eric Gardner have been doing the best coverage of sort of media murders and things like that. Just smart. I just, you know, they did a great

take on a calm casting. I just, I want to talk, he's always smart. He's also snarky in a way,

I like, but does great reporting. That's my, he's accurate. So I like that. So yeah. And then, of course, Scott for Yagas, I've got a real line-up to try to replace you. You're on my next act, essentially. I got it. At some point, we should have a recommitment ceremony. We should. We should that was on the top of the Empire State Building. Oh, okay. So I've, I got a lot to say about both those things. Okay, a lot. I got it. Those two, it is so obvious. Those people are narcissists who

like each other, but don't love each other. First off, if you do that for attention, you're really into looking me. Yeah, sure. And if you're engaged to someone and willing to let them climb up the Empire State Building, it means you like them, but you don't love them. It's like, if they follow, it wouldn't be a tragedy, right? I don't know. So people chase that kind of stuff. Don't you think? Yeah, but people don't, people can chase that stuff and not risk their spouse's

life. Would you let your wife do that, regardless of how competent a climber? I have friends who are in those relations. They love to do like extreme sports. I have a lot of my, I know, I don't, I'm not a friend that do that, but I know a lot of people who do that, and they're very into that kind of thing. So, you know, they like all that, like surfing, like wind surfing in like very dangerous places.

“Have you ever been to a recommitment ceremony? No. No, God. I've been invited to two. And you know what they mean?”

What? No, what do they mean? It is so obvious. They might as well put on the invitation when they invite you to a recommitment ceremony that he was fucking a secretary and got caught and doesn't want to lose his kids, so they have a recommitment ceremony. The second thing it means is they're going to be

divorces in three years. Oh, okay. I've never been invited. That's a good mood today. I know.

Aren't I a bucket of sunshine today? Oh, we have one. We should have a ceremony. So, we should climb something. I was thinking about us when that climb was happening. I loved it. This is what I love you. We look like Gandalf and Billy Barty is sending Mount McKinley. I love, I love everything about New York right now. These people climb the Empire if I can see. And then they put up that matter. You would have liked their message about love and power. That was nice. I didn't like their message.

Yeah, their message. I just love and then that picture of them looking hot is hot in the elevator. Yeah, they're narcissists. I'd love them. Look at me. I know nothing about that topic. And I have an easier time recognizing other narcissists. I understand. The other part. So, okay, first you have the Empire State Building. Of course, the next and everything else and the

“world. I could just about someone who does edible from a crossbar. I'm like, do you do edible?”

No, I wouldn't do that about it's climbing that fucker. I was trying to say, I don't know, you don't need to be high climbing and then at the Empire State Building. Okay, all right. Anyway, and then like a mom-doddy jumping in the pool, I love that. And then Taylor Swift getting married. Matt, I'd love New York so much today for all this. I'm just telling you. Are you going to the wedding? I wasn't invited. No, but I heard all our ex-boyfriends are showing up and doing a harmony of

maybe it's you. I love that she's going over the fucking top. I love someone. I like anyone who goes over the top. I love the Empire State Building people. I like Mom-doddy jumping, Mom-doddy jumping. That was brilliant. I'm going to the pool square. I like it all. Bloomberg did the same thing, but no one criticized Bloomberg. It's not. It's good looking. Well, that's the way. No, I agree. Yeah, I don't know. I just love the whole thing. I'm just so excited.

He was doing water aerobics. Yeah. This is why I had had Melanie on because he wrote,

Like, I love all of that. If you're going to get married, make it a thing. We should have a ceremony. Let's do that on our tour on our pivot tour. Are you married? No, we should do a ceremony of some sort of. By the way, we just planned our new pivot tour for November. We did. We have a new city. We are not going to say. Should we say? You can say go ahead. Say it. We're coming to the great city of Denver. Yeah. It's not about calling. And another one that we didn't go to, we've been

too recently, but manyapolis were going to make it. Oh, yeah, we're going to work on back many apolis to show civic pride. Yeah, that was for the resistance and unsubscribed, but now we're going for being so. Those are the two new cities. Denver and Minneapolis, and we're going to some ones we already went to. Anyway, we're very excited, and we're going to have ceremonies everywhere. We should get to the news, actually. There's a big piece. Why not? Yeah. First, let me just tell you,

Donald Trump's embrace of crypto is paving off in a big way. Trump earned about $1.4 billion

“of the past year from crypto, according to a new financial disclosure, which I think is”

undercounting all the grifties doing. A big chunk of that came from sales of his Trump name coin and digital tokens for the Trump family crypto company, which he gets paid no matter what, and everyone who's invested in it is losing. Just so you know, he got all this money. It's not just crypto, Trump pulled in at least $2.2 billion in total income for the year, up from $622 million in 2024 before. He returned to the presidency. That includes more than

$620 million in real estate hotel and golf for that. Again, which is almost nothing. Plus,

80, 80, $6.5 million from legal settlements from ABC, CBS, YouTube, Meta, and X. This grift is just

and it turns out we're paying for the East Wing. We're paying for the county center. We're paying for all the manner of things that he is up to, which he said the public wasn't paying for. So

“what this is astonishing, I think they're undercounted. What did you, I mean, nobody's surprised,”

but the grift is really quite astonishing. I thought, wow, that's a lot of money. Your thoughts? Well, there's the grift in there. I mean, there's the micro and that is $2.2 billion in personal income, well, sitting as your, I find the oval office and 1.4 billion of it from crypto, financial systems that he now supposedly regulates. It's not a conflict of interest. It's a business model. And essentially what you have in America is slowly but surely we're monetizing everything.

We monetize healthcare. We monetize education. We monetize enrichment online and now the president is monetizing the full faith and credit and power of the White House. And he went from 622 million the year and networked before taking office of 2.2 billion after he's essentially set up a toll booth for the American government. And the meme coin would have been a five-alarm scandal for anyone else but him. It's an financial instrument with no underlying

value that goes up when the president tweets about it. And that's securities manipulation of the big red hat. And the fact that he did it, the Friday night before is an auguration under the cover of dark. You know that he called people and said, thanks for giving me $10,200 million to my campaign FYI, the coin gets announced tonight. It'll, it'll go up and then you can, if you dump it, you dump it. But on a larger level, I was thinking about our 250 year anniversary.

And in, I mean, this is the reality that since 1991 childhood poverty has gone winged out way down, crime has been cut in half. We have a, the number of people have gone gotten education has gone up. We have a healthier, better educated, populace than ever before. The crime is at the lowest rate ever in New York, right? But happiness, this Jimmy Car says, where's had a satisfaction? Isn't a function of what you have? It's the delta between what you have in your

expectations. And what's happened in America because there is now a normalization, an algorithmically normalized, 0.1% in terms of your expectations. Like I mean, except from 22 to 42, I did nothing but work.

“And I think my first vacation, the only vacation I took with my mom, we went to Niagara Falls once,”

we used to go to Magic Mountain because we couldn't afford to go to Disneyland. And I remember going to club met in Mazelon when I was like in my late 20s. I thought it was fucking. I mean, it couldn't have been any tackier, bad dackeries, not a very nice beach. All you can eat, but that you wouldn't want to eat all of it. And I thought it was amazing. I just thought it was the most, I was Brad, I brought back club med shirts. I had a club med hat. I just thought club med was the most amazing

thing. And I was talking about. Did you pay my beads? Was it, didn't you? Yeah, you get beads

for bars for train? Yeah. It's amazing. It's amazing. And because here's the thing. I had never

Arts in Mechanos. My expectations were dramatically lower. And then you combine that with the following. The people who are supposedly in charge are exhibiting a level of corruption and the gravity that just makes this feel bad about institutions. So you have a questioning of our discourse where quite frankly, there's an economic incentive to shit post everything. It's happened a lot during the Biden presidency. It's also to a certain extent happening now. You have social

media vomiting. Everybody's wealth in your face and giving you the impression that if you have

made $3 million on Ethereum and your boyfriend doesn't have a six pack, you're failing. And also

the people in charge seem to be generally like low character people and grabbing everything. All the good. Yeah. And people don't trust the CDC. They don't trust the Supreme Court. It's like what William Gibson said. The future's here. It's just not evenly distributed. Prosperity is here. They see it everywhere. But people don't feel like it's evenly distributed. So people now a quarter of a people under the age of 25 feel good about America. It's three

quarters of people are age. So it's definitely like Kyle Scam and coined a term Vibesession.

“But the 250th anniversary, if you, if the, well, you're down there. What's the vibe like?”

Well, you know, I think people feel like this, this guy grabs everything. Like, and what, my worry is that it goes, we all hate everything because of these people, right? We think everything's on the take. And it sort of makes you feel like nothing works or, or that there's no payoff for anything. And, you know, I was really struck by a really interesting exchange this week between, you know, Elon Musk attacked Rokana for saying he's killed children with the cuts of

USAID that he bragged about, you know, putting it to a woodchipper, etc. Without any care for the impact.

And then he said, show me one person who's been killed. And then Nick Kristoff, who does amazing

people in the New York Times. Name names. And by the way, there's, and I saw them. Thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands more. And then instead of like actually engaging him, which he did exactly what Elon asked for, because that's it is thing. It's like name one person who's heard, that's their little stupid trick. And he does. And then he's like, Nick Kristoff is evil. I was like, you fuck, I was like,

“what did, it made me think. It sounds really, including this crypto stuff. It's like, what's wrong?”

I wanted to fight the feeling of everything sucks. And it was really hard for the first time. I was like, these people have no care. The same thing with Steven Miller spouting off about the, um, they won all these Supreme Court cases, but they lost the one that they really care about, which was birthright citizenship, right? And so they just can't stop the hate. They just have endless pools of hatred and grift. And I wonder how you survive that, and especially if you're a young

person looking at it, like, what is your reaction? I mean, that, that, that to me was like, I even feel exhausted by their enthusiastic villaining and stealing. Like, I find them exhausting. And I just don't know what I would do if I was a young person looking at all this, you know. Yeah, it's, like, there's a lot of issues. I mean, the number of people in the middle has gone away. And young people have a rational reason to be, to be upset. The, the traditional means of

building a life, finding a mate, developing economic security, advancing up the ladder, which is typically some sort of certification either vocational programming or a college degree and then buying a house. The incumbents of weaponized scarcity to make it more expensive. For them to get those things such that the people already own them. A college degree in housing can see the value of those things go up. And also our tax policy, which continues to transfer wealth from them

to, to the incumbents, right? The loosely speaking, our tax policy over the last 50 years has taken

50 trillion dollars and transferred it from the bottom 90 percent to the top 10 percent. Which old

people you? Yeah, so they, they justifiably, can be very, you know, very upset. Having said that, if you actually look at the data, things aren't as bad as you would believe in terms of the vibe. But again, and this is the great Jimmy Carr, you're happiness in your purpose isn't a function of what you have. It's the delta between what you have in your expectations. And the downside of a meritocracy, and especially when social media speed balls it, is everyone believes

if they're not in the top 1 percent they're failing. Except when they're looking at the president just stealing stealing. Agreed. 100 percent. That's really, like there's just no even

“pretty, like look, griffed is better. It's not fair. The reggae is right. From the beginning, right?”

From every, every country, every historical thing. But this is griffed on a very explicit scale and also like, yeah, that's right. I'm taking it. That's right. I'm cheating. And let me tell you,

primaries in Colorado and anti-establishment avalanche. Obviously it was happening in New York,

which is no surprise with Mondani getting, you know, backing a bunch of people. One of whom is really problematic. Colorado Attorney General Phil Wieser, though, upset longtime center of Michael Bennett, who you and I both have a lot of regard for who looked like a lock for the nomination a year ago. We thought he'd be governor of Colorado. And then 29-year-old Democratic socialist may not cure us, unceded a 15-term congresswoman, and Mani Ruth now, a progressive state representative,

defeated a moderate Democrat. The results added to a growing string of progressive anti-incombin.

“I think that's the, actually, Steve Bannon was very canny on this stuff. Victor, he's notably”

with what happened in New York and there are a number of primaries still to come over the next few months. All this is a New York Times Santa Pol show Democrats within striking distance of putting the Senate majority back in play. I want you to not go negative yet, because I want you to talk about these victories and what they are. And let me read something that Robert Reich wrote on Substack about these elections. Pondits eager to declare a new movement or soundly alarm about

socialism or having a field day, but they're wrong voters who have supported these candidates haven't done so because they've been particularly attracted to the idea of Democratic socialism, most even don't know what Democratic socialism is and reality voters have been attracted to vigorous young people who are committed to getting stuff done. Steve Bannon said nearly the same thing which was really interesting and I would agree talking to like Louie like he'd just sick of people

not get and stuff done like and looking for something else, which is interesting. What are your thoughts on this? I think Reich and I hate to say it Bannon are correct. I think that's exactly right. The establishment didn't lose on policy here, Cara. They lost on energy and look, I've been calling for disruption in the Democratic Party. I think leader Jeffrey is in the minority leader Schumer, are absolutely the wrong people to provide the kind of robust energetic pushback that the Trump

“administration warns. But here's the thing about disruption. Is you don't get to pick the exact”

calibration of your disruption? So for example, I consider myself a moderate and I'm getting dense that the true litmus test of someone who's truly a moderate is everybody hates you, but you don't get to, so think about the senators who are moderate. It's like federal men and mansion. Everybody hates them. So people claim they want a moderate, but when someone actually shows up and occasionally agrees with the other side, they become an apostate.

At the same time, guys like me claim we want disruption. We need to disrupt the Democratic Party

and then when it happens, we freak out about it. But here's the bottom line. There's a lot to

like here. And I say this full disclosure, I have given money to Senator Michael Bennett for everything he has run for for the last 10 years. I hosted a fundraiser for him for president. You know, by the way, if you get money for me, it's not a good sign. But I think the world of Senator Bennett, former school superintendent, one of the most credentialed people in the Senate, lost to a state A.G. nobody had ever heard of a year ago. But here's the bottom line.

If you want disruption, you don't get to pick your farm of disruption and these candidates they are. There's a lot to like about these candidates. They're young. They're energetic. They're unafraid. They don't have a bunch of blather about how you would go about universal health care.

They're just like Medicare for all. So there's a lot to like about them. But the reality is for those

of us in the center, we don't get to pick our flavor of disruption. What I would say that bothers me is that democratic socialists effectively want socialism to democratic means. The reality is if you really look at history, socialism just doesn't work folks. And they will always point to what about Northern Europe. Northern Europe is actually more capitalist than we are right now. They just have a social safety net in this thing. They call

themselves that though. Don't they? I mean, you always, you always thread about Sweden, for example, or then other lines. But here's the system that's worked. Democracy, individual rights and

“capitalism. Call it what you want. But when you start believing that you should have government”

sponsored grocery stores, or that you shouldn't have border. I mean, that's it quite frankly. It just not only doesn't make sense. It threatens our ability to win the midterms. Drama manual had a fantastic statement. In the thread we were on and he said it publicly, we have to stop arguing and atomizing ourselves between blue and cobalt blue. So I'm more focused on my energy on, you know, the the the grifting corruption and just stupid decision making of the

Trump administration. The thing, so there's a lot I like about this disruption. You don't get the pick your flavor of disruption. And you know what? Young people just want change. She wanted to just

He said he actually has been impressed by my mom Donny and he was very against him. He was sort of

where you are, right? Yeah, kind of. That's right. And he's like, I have to say he's effective. And I do think they're not looking for necessarily just upsetting the incumbents. They want people who do shit. And I, I, one of the things about Wiser and I was watching this thing is he was just a more energetic campaigner. He wanted your vote more. And he wasn't necessarily much more liberal. It wasn't that because Michael's pretty liberal, relatively speaking, right? Especially in Colorado. He just

looked like he could like, he like, he just was energetic. And not just fake, fake energy. It's not just fake energy. It doesn't mean like what Kennedy felt like back in the 60s. It was like,

“I, I literally just want you to do your job. Like I want and, and I do think, I think you're”

right about capitalism. I agree with that. But it should, needs to have everyone gets health care. That is not, that I think that's a really good message of the democratic social and everyone else. Everyone should get good health care. Everyone should get a good minimum wage.

Everyone should get, you know, and, and what's incredible. I'll tell you, it would really

absolutely struck me. And I really, I finally realized that the Republican Party is fucked in seven ways to Sunday with coming next, not, I mean, post-truck was Mondani said, can we, can everyone like, we have an electrical grid problem, probably coming up with this heat, because there's a huge heat warning all over the East Coast, including in New York. And he said, if you could put, you know, you're air conditioning to 78 versus 74, that would be great. That's

all he said. Immediately, tech crews. And Nikki Haley, I told you, she can't help herself, said communism, right, or social, this is what socialism is. And immediately, there are tweets from many years ago, where when she was governor of South Carolina. And he, the same thing in

Texas, where they asked people to put their, put their air conditioning down surfaced. What is wrong

with them? Like, he was asking a normal thing that they themselves had asked for, the minute they jumped on it, they were trying to do socialism. They look like idiots, and everyone can see it.

“And that's, that's why I told you Nikki Haley is impossible. She's never going to win anything,”

because she's so such a suck-up in so many ways. It was so not sensible. He was saying something sensible, and everyone sees it, and did not immediately think communism about the air conditioning, even though I love air conditioning. And so that to me is, they're, they're vigorous, they're vigorous young people who want to be effective. That is what I think is attractive. I don't, I don't disagree with any of that. And the thing that Mom Donnie and some of these people

are doing, the most admirable thing about Donald Trump, President Trump, is action orientation. It's ready fire aim. It's like, no, I'm going to do this. But we're doing it. And the courts might challenge it. We might have to roll it back. But Americans really respect that. And Mom Donnie, to his credit, immediately imposed certain taxes, certain policies. And I think young people think, well, at least he's fucking doing something. Now, the, the, the, the glass half

empty for me is the following. The, whenever the far left and the far right agree on anything,

“it's a really, that's a tell. It's a really bad idea. I believe they both, the far left and the”

far right come together on what I believe are anti-Semitic themes. They both come together on an isolationist foreign policy. And what I see here is they both come together on socialism as an economic policy. Donald Trump is investing in Intel. Donald Trump is entertaining the idea of investing in open AI. Donald Trump believes that the government should have a golden share and U.S. steel. All that happens when you do that. All that happens when you do that is you end up with

warehouses in Ireland full of DeLorean's and Air France. And you see a lot of that rhetoric from the far left. We absolutely need a more progressive tax structure. But here's how you get to a progressive tax structure. The thing we spend the most money on is not the military. It's not our debt. It's not even social security. The thing the American government spends the most money on. We spent 2.2 trillion dollars on givebacks from the tax code in the form of Lupos to corporations in the

wealthy. We need to reduce spending on tax low, low polls and givebacks to the wealthy and corporations. And if you look at Northern Europe, they're very capitalist. They let companies go out of business. They don't take stakes in Spotify. Their tax rates are either the same or a touch higher than ours. But what they do is they enforce them. And they say Spotify, you don't get to write off your jets, your plan property and equipment. And the richest people don't get to have donor-advised

funds where they get to write off donations. They haven't made yet. But what I don't like about, I mean, quite frankly, there's some things to really bother me about the wins in New York,

there was one. There was one. The lander is not Chevolla. Yes, Chevolla is the problem. Yeah.

“By the way, she's going to be the poster child. She's about to become the poster child for Republicans”

on the next. Anyways, but let me let me circle out to where I started. I don't get to pick the calibration and the color and the flavor of disruption. Disruption. They're youthful. They're energetic. They're unafraid. And that for me is 70 or 80 percent good. Do I worry that they're embracing

a form of socialism that has never worked throughout history? Yeah. I trust they'll be modulating

forces from the center on both sides on that. Yeah. But the reality is we need the democratic party needs to shed its skin, leader Jeffries, and Schumer are getting clear signals. No one gives a fuck what you think. You have become institutional endorsements, have become a liability. Yeah. Just as we thought US bases in Gulf States would provide a valid protection. They become bulls eyes. You're going to start to see Democratic candidates say,

Senator Schumer, please do not come to my rally. They are. They are actually. They're like all talking about whether they'd both form. He's got to go. I've told him that it was face. He

“thought I was kidding. I was like, no, you need to stop. He was like, he's like, hall all”

garrows. I was like, no, time to go. Time to move along. I mean, we don't want to Mitch McConnell the situation. These guys cling to power like an African dictator, which I'm sure is a hate crime. Yeah. I was like, we don't want to Mitch McConnell the situation here. We want to move along. Anyway, I agree with you. It's exciting. I find it exciting. We needed disruption. Yeah. Good for them. Youth energy have added. I think it's a good thing too.

I like non cautious people. I do. I think the Democrats have played it too cautious. Anyway, let's go on a quick break when we come back. The Supreme Court finishes its term with some major rulings. That was something. Support for the show comes from Framer. If your team wants a website that looks and feels handcrafted, but is still fast to ship, Framer is built for that. You design on a visual canvas with

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It's Donald Trump's still cool. Well, first there's what he was promising to America.

He was promising change. Yeah, that's a big change. Has he lived up to that? No, no, I want to say so I was disappointed. We're in Washington DC for one of the events that Donald Trump is throwing for America's 250th anniversary and it's UFC night. Probably be American, we got free tickets. It's just going to be a great time. That's about it. It's an opportunity to talk to a group that was central in the 2024 election, young men. Why do we think Trump and men seem to have a

connection? I don't know if you just know how to advertise themselves in a younger crowd. It aligns with masculinity. I feel like so it's her next step. But if they don't like Donald Trump, what did they prefer politically otherwise? It's here about my family. I care about my country. I want people to be safe and happy where they live. Here about my wallet zoom out. I'm a stead-hurrenton. And this is America, actually. Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or

wherever you get your podcasts. No one could blame you if you thought this men's world cup was going to be a disaster. The president of the United States isn't exactly a welcome map for the world and there have been plenty of embarrassing stories for the country. There was the mom of Cape Birds goalkeeper who wasn't let into the United States to watch her son play until the team started doing well and people clamored for her entry. The team from Dr. Congo

had made a men's world cup in 52 years and hardly made this one because the United States was supposedly worried about Ebola even though no one on the team had Ebola. If you were watching Senegal Norway last week and were wondering where all the Senegalese fans were, they weren't

let into the country but you probably noticed we let in like a million Vikings? I wonder what's

different about their fan bases? Oh and who could forget we're literally bombing one of the countries that up until Friday was playing here? But somehow the vibes of this world cup are mostly positive. The world cup might just be healing us on today's plane from Vox.

It's term. Let's go through around it. Some of the cases the court ruled on court struck down

“a federal law that bars the president from firing members of the FTC so he no more independent”

agencies essentially. They lifted limits on how much political parties can spend on advertising and other expenses with candidates of problem and more citizens united. Appheld two state laws barring the participation of transgender female athletes from girls in women's sports team and upheld birthright citizenship striking down in executive order. Let's hear some thoughts from Leo Litman who co-host the podcast strict scrutiny which freaks down all things Supreme Court.

Hey Karen Scott here are some quick thoughts on the most recent Supreme Court term. We came

within a single vote. One vote of saying the Constitution doesn't mean what it says on birthright

citizenship and nullifying a constitutional amendment that is the foundation of our constitutional order of multiracial democracy after the Civil War. They have also been systematically undermining our democracy killing the voting rights act enabling partisan and racial gerrymandering. They've also just killed campaign finance regulations that were designed to prevent political corruption. As result, the super rich will be able to effectively funnel more than $500,000 directly to candidates

in the upcoming election and they have been killing Congress's capacity to govern at expanding presidential power against a backdrop of a president who has been engaged in corruption and paid

“a play. And that is just to start of it. Yes, I think she's sort of articulated it. One of the ones”

that really upset me and I'm the birthright citizenship was far too close, far too close. That was disturbing and by the way a lot of a Trump people have to go back home wherever they come from. The two that really upset me to me are the voting rights act. Absolutely, but to me it's all the money. The finance regulations designed to prevent political corruption. That was the more more citizenship it was the last thing we need. And then secondly the ability of the no independent

agencies on things that deserve independence like the FTC. And you've seen what Brandon Carr has done. Although one of the justices did say Brandon Carr is a more on part of essentially said that in his ruling. I think it was Kavanaugh. It could have been Gorset, whatever. They look the same to me. So those two were like giving more power to the president in general, which I think will be just as bad with a Democrat and is terrible with Trump. Was two problems, but the money to me was the

focus focus I had. What about you? Yeah. Citizens United is arguably one of the worst things that's happened in recent history to the US because of the 900 billionaires. They make up a third of political giving. It's probably more than half of the influence because they can be much more targeted. You know, Union just give money to whoever's the Union candidate. But a private equity firm can give $700,000 to Senator Cinema and say just be the holdout for the infrastructure bill and

ask that they strip out the carrot interest loophole. And that cost $20 or $30 billion which is the

most ridiculously poll in history. See about $2 trillion spent on loopholes. We're private equity owners get their commission on investment gains in the form of long-term capital gains. It's totally indefensible. So that's bad. The silver lining, the dotted silver lining on this out of control spend, is that we're finding is it's gone past its utility. And that is it used to be 20 years ago, like 97% of the time, who raised the most money one. Yeah, it's no longer happening. Like,

Trump's star has spent a quarter of a billion dollars and didn't win. Right. It's almost like the full local news station employment act. The amount of money they're spending on the whole. It's really bad. But what you are seeing is it's no longer the key folk room for who or the key lever for who wins. The thing that that upset me the most, it would just so frightening that we was even this close was birthright citizenship. I mean, this is the Constitution. Just straightforward.

The Constitution says if you're born here, you're a citizen. And I'm going to give you a couple of anchor babies, a ball again who got a red card on fairly the attack, the premier striker for the World Cup team. His parents were here. I forget she couldn't go home. He was born here.

“She was too pregnant. I think the airlines said you're too good for us, right? And also,”

it's a fairly small number. It's only 7%. It's a fairly small number of babies. It is the whole word anchor babies. So fucking ridiculous. Well, I've happened to a certain extent. This is what we don't like to talk about. Immigration is not only the secret sauce. It's the most illegal immigration is probably the most profitable form of immigration because they're risk takers. And they

And they pay taxes and they usually don't stick around to collect Social Security and they usually

“don't call the fire. They commit crimes at a lower rate than citizens. The reality is, we didn't”

just wake up and fight loops. There's 15 million undocumented workers here. Republicans and

Democrats have looked at each other and gone winquink. It's nice having cheap housing being built in Phoenix, Arizona or my gosh. And how are we going to get all these people? Why grandma's asked for 11 bucks an hour? I mean, so it's not, this has been an economic decision. Has it gone too far? Absolutely. But be clear folks. We didn't just wake up and let this happen. So ballagin is one anchor baby. You know who else is an anchor baby? Carolina. No. The trunk there and

trunk. You could say she's a male order bride. She's not an anchor baby. She wasn't born here. True. Sorry. Hope. Your co-host, Cara. Oh, my, your an anchor baby. My parents at the ages of 19 and 24 got on steam ships from Glasgow and London respectively. And they landed in Canada where my mom was just anographer. And my dad was a candle salesman. They met at a dance. They found love. They sex there. So the conception was Canada in Toronto. They claimed they got married and had me.

I'm not sure if that's true. I'm not gonna argue it at home, Cara. But they decided they could not. I'm a bastard. No, it was my dad said. My dad said a few inches, we shorted to the blanket, whatever that means. And by the way, he was a bastard. He was born. He was born in Australia, unwed to an unwed woman who was a man at the McViggar family. The entire family is real. Literally, we're bastards all the way through. I'm the John Snow of John Snow's.

And, and anyways, my father basically, my father's, my father's mother freaked out.

Said to her boyfriend, we got to get out of here. I've already sold the baby to this wealthy family. And they went, they literally went to the dock and got a ship to Glasgow and anyway, my parents, my mom seven and a half months pregnant. They said that we cannot endure another winter here in Toronto. And they read an article in the Toronto Globe and Mail saying that the best weather in North America was in this town called San Diego. San Diego. So they loaded up my mom's Austin Minimetra,

which is basically a lawnmower with doors. Like you've ever seen Mr. Bean. That's the car. And seven and a half months pregnant. No idea. My mom and my dad drove to San Diego. And something like 37 days later, I was born at Lothoia County Hospital. And let me make a flex. I'm a U.S. citizen. I didn't know this about you. I am a U.S. citizen. I've had to pay U.S. taxes. Yeah.

Me and my companies have paid well over $100 million in taxes over the last 30 years.

It seems like it's worked out for everybody. And I just want to notify the IRS and the Trump administration.

“My mother, I am an illegal anchor baby. I think my citizen should be revoked. And by the way,”

when I sell my next company, I'm going to be in Dubai and I'm not going to be subject to U.S. taxes. I am down for you to revoke my U.S. citizenship. And also, abdicate, absolve me of all and refund me of all the tax payments I have made because my parents decided to come to the U.S. and drop a nine pound stone called Scott in San Diego instead of Toronto. Oh, wow. And I would imagine that there is more of

balligan and galloway than there are people eating cats and dogs that were born in the U.S. Right. Or just showing or running across the border to be pregnant. This discrete from Stephen Miller who I cannot wait till he gets his reckoning is astonishing. So hateful and like ridiculous and full of lies that it's so full of this whole their whole and let's not use it our anchor babe because it's so gross. It's such a gross way of and hateful. I look at it. I had no Scott. You

“could have been sent back wherever. Where would you Canada? Where would you have been sent to?”

Do you have that fucking weirdo talking about you, Jen? Yes. The people should be sterilized with where they get her? Yes, I know. Right. But they're not allowed in it. Right. 1939 German is calling and wants you back. I know. Wait a second. Where would you go? What country would you go to? Now that's the that's the other thing. Where do we send them back to? Right. Because would you go to Canada? If this past like you would send them people are leaving last

year was the first time in since World War II. I know. Negative immigration is lost at this room court. Would you could have? Right. Where would they send Scott Dalloway back to? Was it Canada or is it England or is it Scotland? Like what country do you are you from? What country are you from? Well, my parents my dad or was it Scottish or British citizen my mom became a citizen of the US, but I guess back to the UK. I don't know. I don't know. God. That's interesting, Scott.

Bart's. So I'm a French citizen. Okay. But then I have to, then I have to, then I have to

look for team France and I just can't do that. Oh, yeah. I just can't do that. All right. Well, this is some news. I didn't know about that. After seeing after seeing team Japan, has there ever been a product that's been better for the umbrella brand than team

“Japan? Did you see what they did after they lost in a heartbreaking loss to Brazil?”

They all walked over to the Japanese side and they bowed to apologize to their fans. Oh, they did. These, I, I think I'd like, I want to move to Japan. Yeah. I love this one more time. I love their for a couple of months. I loved it. All right. Other supreme court news. Wow, Scott. I'm just, I, I, I need to calculate the situation. You need to get me kicked out. I need to kick out. Yeah, I got it.

Calls calling Steven Miller. I'm going to ask everyone for their ID when they come and be a guest host. In other supreme court news, by the way, NPR retracted an article saying that Samuel Alito, another piece of shit. Sorry, Samuel, but you are. Had retired, reporter Nina Totenberg has said she heard retirement announcements were coming and mistakenly assumed it was Alito prompting your team to publish a pre-written story. That seemed like odd. It seemed like that. I think he's

probably leaving, right? And he's going to have, they're going to have to. He's got to, he's got two years left to put in, you know, younger versions of Alito and, and Thomas, I guess, correct? Why would you think these people are any less narcissistic than Ruth Bitter Ginsburg? They all think they're going to live forever. Oh, they may not leave. Interesting. You don't think they'll do it for

“the take one for the team kind of thing. Well, that's what suitor did. I think it depends on the”

individual and I just don't know them all enough. RBG, I mean, RBG and Senator Feinstein, both lovely, important women who've really, forged paths, screwed, who really put an unfortunate punctuation mark at the end of the sense of their career by not believing they would ever die. Yeah. I think Alito will just stick around because he loves me. I have no idea what he's like. All his things. And by the way, in the, in Thomas's, whatever his anti, whatever, he like mentioned

dread sky is an awful lot. He's like, which, of course, was a terrible thing. Fortunately, the amendment is here to protect all of us. So it's glad that it's there. They're going to try it. They're going to try to take it out, but they're going to be accessible. Protect podcasting and erectile dysfunction drug sales. Exactly. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about SpaceX donating to Trump accounts. I'm Seth Matlin's, my new show creator

“destroy reimagining marketing explores how every decision a company makes. Not just the marketing”

ones, but the HR, IR, pricing, or design and planning ones. The ones most don't consider marketing at all contribute to either creating value or destroying it. Each week, I sit down with CMO, COs, founders, cultural thinkers that people building, breaking and reimagining how businesses grow or don't for conversations about what creates value and what destroys it. It's a business show,

it's a marketing show, creator destroys the show that argues they've always been the same thing

from the box media podcast network and the wisdom is coming. New episodes drop weekly on YouTube and your favorite podcast app. A lot of us probably grew up with mountains of video game stuff, cartridges, consoles, discs, other discs, broken discs, more discs, everything. And now it seems like those discs are gone. This week on the Vergecast we're talking about why the gaming industry is going

all digital and what it means that that's going away. Plus, whether Rivian can take on Tesla, whether any of us can figure out how to vibe code and much more on the Vergecast, wherever you get podcasts. As America reaches its 250th anniversary, how should Americans assess their country's strength relative to the rest of the world? We're moving into a genuinely multipolar world and that's a world in which every nation is basically for itself because nations can no longer rely on the

United States to protect them. I'm John Finer and I'm Jake Sullivan and we're the hosts of the long game, a weekly national security podcast. This week, we sat down with the historian and foreign policy expert Bob Cagan to assess America's role in the world at 250th in the future of American power. The episodes out now search for and follow the long game, wherever you get your podcasts. Scott, we're back with more news. The Trump administration has talked with SpaceX about donating

stock to the administration's Trump accounts channel savings program. It's unclear whether Elon Musk has agreed to that or how it would be structured Trump accounts are set to launch

under July 4th with over 6 million children enrolled. Other big donors include Billionaire

Michael Dell on his wife and companies like BlackRock and Beckham Merrick, which would

giving Trump administration a 5% stake in the company proposed that we're putting involved other U.S. AI companies also giving governments so much stakes. This is, this is a, to me, it was really interesting. Paul Graham had a really interesting point. The reason that open as I was doing that is because they don't get asked for 10%, like I thought that was true. This all feels like a shake down or you get something in return for doing this kind of stuff. I don't hate the idea of

accounts. I don't want, I wish we will, we will rename them from Trump accounts to something else

“the U.S.A. accounts. But it seems a little socialist to me. I don't know. What do you think?”

Again, it's where the far right and the far left me, that with just different objectives and different claims, open AI offering the government a 5% equity stake is essentially to buy protection, neutralized regulation, lock in a government anchor client. It's not patriotism. It's protection money.

It's a vote. And you don't think they're going to be the first to get government contracts versus

other AI startups. It's also the beginning of what I think is going to be one of the biggest bailouts in recent history in that is we're starting to see cracks in the wall where there's fewer people, fewer companies have actually figured out a way to create demand. There's only a tune out, open AI, and a drop at consistently. And their spend and capex commitments are so out of control that I think Sam Altman says, I like the idea of the full faith in backing and maybe even government

“back dad from the president and here's the bottom line. The government should not the”

government should not be taking equity stakes. And companies, they just shouldn't. I mean, there are some exceptions. Occasionally when I do think you can make an argument in the great financial recession that it made sense for the government to bail out the automobile industry, because it was a huge employer, but they didn't start saying you can only buy fours or occasionally. They saved Tesla's ass. Back when these companies have gotten trillions of dollars

in market cap, let them run. I mean, this was just straight up cronyism, privatized the gains, socialize the loss. And can I ask you question, one of the things, Alcarp seems insane, every Tony opens his mouth and you know, hopped up on something. But he was going on sort of

very cogent. I thought it was very cogent. I do too. And I had to listen to her second because he's

“so nuts. He always throws in some nutball thing on the side and his manners. But what he was saying”

is something that Mark Cuban had said to me previously, is this token maxing is going to come back to bite people. And that when people find people are cheaper than the tokens, it's going to sort of collapse. Mark, Mark Cuban said this absolutely first to me, months and months and months ago. And, and Carp was was articulating this idea of these open systems, mostly from China as you predicted, Scott taking the place of, you know, with regular corporations. And two things he was saying is one,

keeping your data yours and not giving him to opening eyes and anthropics. And secondly, the cost of these tokens is really untenable. And I, as nutty as he is, and he took a number of like slaps that competitors because he can't help himself. He made a lot of sense. I can't believe I'm saying this too, but what he did is I had to listen to it twice. And I was trying to think if I could put it in someone else's voice. Because I every time I hear on me says nutty things, but this is the kind of thing.

I was like, we're going to, this is going to collapse. And the bunch of economists, all of these world economists are all worried about these cracks that you've talked about. So talk a little bit about this because this idea, you had the idea of China, these open systems from China replacing and sort of knocking the stuff. You have these economists saying this, you have Karp saying this again.

I want to get credit to the market when for being the first to mention it to me. Talk a little

bit about this because all this like government intervention seems really problematic going for. The government intervention is bailout caused playing growth. And Karp is right. Chief models are eating the expense of ones. The token consumption of Chinese models has surpassed the token consumption of frontier models in the U.S. Because all of a sudden the CFO of Uber goes, our entire AI budget has burned through in eight weeks. And I don't see any consumer talking about the

improvement in ride hailing service. I don't, or it's not improving. It's not improving. Well, it's sort of like experimentation is over. This can no longer be a magic trick. You either have to incorporate this into the plumbing and show me our ROI. We're going to reduce our budgets here. And AI is following kind of the same curve as cloud computing. And that is margins compress. There's this reminded me of 99 and tell me if you think this this analogy is out. Okay. So

Pepsi's going to buy their sugar online on the internet. And we're all going to buy not just CDs and books, but we're going to buy everything online. And there's the front layer. So everyone invests in Amazon and Etoys and you know pets.com. And it ends up that they're just not nearly creating enough demand and not enough commerce is going through e-commerce to justify anything resembling the valuations these companies are getting. So they can wait. We're not sure which part of the

application layer, which LLM, if you will, is going to win. So let's all invest in the infrastructure layer. And everyone invested safely and like I can't pick the winner. So I'm going to invest in Cisco or in telco infrastructure. And Cisco hit an all-time high, lost 93% of its value from 99 to 2001. And I see kind of the same thing here where everyone's saying, all right, let's invest in the demand side. You know, X AI, Lama, uh, uh, grock, cloud, uh, chatGBT. And all of a sudden it looks like

the demand may not be as exponential as we thought. Or it's too costly. Or it's too expensive. Yeah, which lowers demand. And some of the players who thought they were going to need infrastructure for their own demand, specifically meta and X AI have said, we overestimated the demand of our own LLM. So we're renting out our infrastructure in a matter of 30 days. It looks like we've gone from a supply

“crisis to a demand crisis. And what you'll see, I think, is just as in 99, the first coming”

to crash where the B to C, then it went to B to B. Oh, wait, not pets.com. Let's go to remember internet capital group. Well, they're selling sugar in between, you know, from farmers, right? I totally forgot about it. I brought so many bad evaluation greater than general electric. And then everyone figured out no one was buying fucking anything. And it was easier to fax your orders and it was to go on the internet capital group website. And then, everyone went to it, we're going

B to C, then B to B, B to C gets creamed. B to B then gets creamed. And then the infrastructure guys got creamed. I think we're sort of going through a similar cycle right now. Overbuilding. And we're starting to see the beginning of the cracks at the application layer saying, people are questioning them amount of money. They're spending on anthropic and open AI. What's evidence of that? Open AI and anthropic are considering delaying their IPOs. Yeah, I agree. And I do

think one of the things I think we'll recover would be computing demand because there's only

“going to be more computing demand eventually. And I think that's what happened with all those”

internet companies. Like, look, they were a million. I forgot about ICG. Oh my god, I can't even remember

them. I brought me back. You know, everyone remembers pets.com, but you know, we eventually, there'll be a Google, right? Eventually there'll be a Facebook. The technology will survive. Right. And so I would that computing is an area you would want to eventually. Like, when once a crash is buying it up, would be a smart thing, right? Computing apps would be an important thing, like understanding where it's going. But you're right. These are a lot of these

companies aren't ready to buy these things and prices have to come down. And then that'll have a knock-on effects of Oracle and all the others who have, you know, a lot of other companies will be affected in the blast radius of this. I agree. I think these economists, I was reading the report from this thing. And usually, I don't pay that much attention to, like, predictions, but I was like, this makes perfect sense of where it's going. And it does have a feel.

You're absolutely right of 1999. Amazon's an amazing company. From 1999 to 2001, and I lost 92

percent of its value. Met is an amazing company. Four years ago in 2022, it lost 72 percent of its

value. These companies, the natural curve of these companies, is very volatile. And the technology and these companies will survive and they will be great companies. Or can they go down 90 percent

“in value? The answer is yes. Yeah, I agree. This feels, it just feels so 99 to me. It's like, I remember”

government modeling makes it worse to cover. Oh, yeah. Popping them up because Trump is like, my entire administration is America is a giant bet, whether it's the GDP growth, cap expending is earnings growth, and the S&P is all a big bet on AI. His political money. If these guys go down, he's going to be really rough for me. I'm telling you a bailout is coming.

Yeah. One would assume, yeah, because they're the fuse for America. Yeah, you're right. 100 percent.

All right. Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. Scott, before we get into this week's predictions, I want to play a prediction you made last week at Can. My prediction is the biggest IPO in terms of first-day pop is going to be a European

bending spoons that I had not heard of until two weeks ago. I'm kind of fascinated with it.

Well, Scott, take a victory lap. Bending spoons surge 40 percent after the company's IPO this week.

What's next? Before you get to your prediction? Well, it's the first up. The company was up.

“So SpaceX is up, I think, 22 or 23 percent. We predict it would be up 20.”

Bending spoons is up close up. I think 42 percent yesterday. Yeah. They're going to have to show that they can scale a model of buying stuff at, you know, XE Betta and then these orphans and then substantially reducing costs, which is Latin for higher younger people and replaced the expensive 40 year olds.

And to their credit, they have some of the highest revenue per employee of any digital company

writer or any internet company. But they're going to have to show that they can consistently make these a creative acquisitions. What this really is, is like, Martin Cyril kind of pioneered this model. He went and bought all the big agencies. I don't even remember them now. Ogile V. May there. He could go and invite these companies at seven times Z Betta or eight. And they immediately he take their earnings and the market reward would would reward them with 12 times.

They're going to have to show that they can did this model, this private equity like model of acquiring companies. They don't get them cheap. They get them for a good price. You would argue that their ability to reduce costs continue to see growth, add some growth organic. And then the market will give them a markup. They're going to have to show that they can continue to do that. And then the market will give them a markup. They're going to have to show that they can

continue to do that. And then the market will give them a markup. They're going to have to show that they can continue to do that. And then the market will give them a markup. They're going to have to show that they can continue to do that. And then the market will give them a markup. And then the market will give them a markup. They're going to have to show that they can continue to do that.

Today they're going down today. Well, it to be clear, the valuation last year was it was about 7 billion. It came out at 19 billion. It's trading at about 23 now. The stock side expensive,

but you would argue that they are going to have to show sooner rather than later their ability to continue to scale these types of creative acquisitions. So, but I thought when I talked to when I looked around and I said okay, all of the oxygen elements stuck out of the year for SpaceX. And when these guys came out at seven or eight times earnings. And all of those brands. And they're

“fact they were only raising a billion after dollars. I thought this thing's going to get. I mean, this is the sad part about IPOs. This is what I believe”

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are doing. And that is they use AI and their incredible market insight and their incredible marketing machine. They are the new engineers. They engineer a 20 plus percent pop on day one because the reality is that is the ultimate branding event. Everywhere in the news today is that bending Italian company bending spoons is up is up 20 percent. And personally, I wanted to see the company go up and the reason I brought some sunlight to it was because I am so sick of talking about American AI companies. I love the idea of the European company that's not AI and also clean up a clean up company.

You know, it's interesting is that I'm just looking at the meta thing that there are 20 to what the PE ratio is 20, which seems healthy. And and that SpaceX is more is valued at 500 million dollars more than them is insane. Makes no sense. I don't care how good they are at robots. It's just nutty. The what you'll do is you'll fold Tesla into this, but as I've said many times. Which is another anchor. Yeah. But it is there are some real values here, right? Like meta seems to be, I mean, I don't usually make a meta on a price earnings basis. I don't think it's ever been this cheap and the cheapest of them all.

It was mainly a big tech stockpick for 26. The Amazon has never had a price earnings ratio this low. Yeah, what is there? Well, you know, go look at how far that is 27 that is 21 Amazon your right is low 29. Yeah, and it's usually it's average over the last 20 years has been 55.

“And it was industrialized robots all gone forever, but so my prediction is that essentially, and I said this, we're starting to see cracks in the wall around evidence. And I think it's nuance, not definitive.”

Not cracking because AI doesn't work. It's cracking because investors are starting to ask much more pointed questions specifically, can we actually earn a return on the trillions of dollars being spent here. And the evidence, there's evidence that the narrative around AI is changing, and that is cat backs is out running monetization. The largest cloud companies around pace to spend 6 to 700 billion on AI infrastructure just this year. Yet many enterprise customers are struggling to demonstrate measurable ROI, and that is the narratives move from can it can AI work to can AI pay. And it used to be spend more money. This is the future infinite demand and it's like we'll hold on CFOs are starting to tap the breaks here.

And that's reminiscent again of late stage infrastructure booms with the suppliers prosper before the customers are inadequate returns.

And also Wall Street as it does eventually focuses on ROI and the debate is shifted from 12 months ago the debate was who can build the biggest model now it's who can make money. And one of my role models here are this fantastic chief economist who, by the way, has I think a much better sense of humor than certain chief investment officers at other big banks. A Apollo's Torsten Slock. Does he like a dick joke? I think Torsten loves a good dick joke, but I'm not going to speak for him. I'm not going to speak for him, but he puts out he puts out these fantastic emails every day with a chart.

And he argues that the markets may be pricing and productivity gains that will take years, not quarters to materialize, we're starting to see central bankers issue warnings.

“And here's the thing, care if the AI trade on wines, the most vulnerable names are generally the ones whose valuations depend most valuable on continuing AI infrastructure spending.”

The number the tier one risk level is in video hysteral labs and marvel technology. These companies are extraordinary businesses don't get me wrong, but to the most exposed was slow down in GPU and networking demand. And in the tier two, vertive, super micro computer core weave. These are effectively picks and shovels for the gold rush.

And then you go to the third level, the Microsoft, the alphabet, the Amazon, the minute, there will be nowhere.

There would be nowhere to hide here. And that is the technology stories intact. It's just that the valuation story is beginning to get stress tested. And I don't think it's going to survive that stress test. So what's the prediction? All eight or ten of those companies a basket of them down 20 to 40% in the next 12 months. And by the way, still great companies, the technology will survive.

“I believe that the better AI players are going to be jargon odds in five to ten years, but we are entering these guys are just way out in front of their skis.”

Yeah, I would agree. I'm going to make a short prediction too. The thing that we've started beginning with the Trumps, I just noticed this New York Post on Trump Family Corruption, which was interesting.

I think it's not Trump. It's going to pay for this thing. He's going to die before we can get to him.

But I think his children and the children of a lot next in the rest are going to get it. I do think they're going to get it. You mean, be prospecting? Yes, here's why. This is the New York Post. The Trumps sons, meanwhile, are part owners and investors in companies neck deep in key defense contracts to mind tungsten reserves in central Asia. It stinks to high heaven. If a president's family making bank from obscure resource companies in the former Soviet Union, sound familiar, maybe it's because Hunter Biden's lucrative connection.

You know, it was a major scandal in the 2020 election and beyond. Republicans, including Donald Trump, were justifiably outraged at the obvious influence paddling. These kids are going to pay a price. That's my prediction. You know, they look at parties.

“I think he'll try, but I think their state, there's all manner of ways to get to them. I understand they're in for a, I think they're in for a lot.”

That's my prediction anyway, but I think it's all part of the same thing. Like you're talking about there. We cannot save these internet companies. We cannot keep intervening for friends of Donald Trump or family members. Anyway, it's gross. Socialism is really, yes. Communism, really. Anyway, we want to hear from you, send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nmymag.com/pivotsmitaquestion for the show or call eight five five five five one pivot. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

And please, big the chief investment officer of that bank to stop. It's a forgive Scott. So we can start telling dick jokes again. We'll be back next week. But at least the dick jokes today's show is produced by Laren Aminzo and Marcus Taylor Griffin and Todd Weisman. Additional assistance from Kate Gallagher and Brad Sylvester, earning her Todd Andrew at this episode. Thanks. So I'll switch to Drew Browsman, it's a very influential lawn. The shot crew has boxed me this executive producer podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform.

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