Bill Kristol: Trump's Iran Disaster Is Also a Defeat for the U.S.

- Hello and welcome to the Bullard Podcast.

“I'm your host Tim Miller, happy Memorial Day.”

We've got an abbreviated edition of our usual Monday podcast for, you know, those of you, on long road trips with your family, and you want to disassociate and just hang out with us instead,

or people that just want to celebrate the holiday by paying attention to our insane news cycle. And since it's Monday, I'm here with Bill Crystal. How you doing, Bill? - Fine, how are you, Tim?

- I'm doing well, I'm doing well, all things considered. Why don't we just get to it here? A lot of updates in the state of play with regards to Iran since we're last together on Friday.

On Saturday, Trump announced that we're basically

on the cuts with a deal, a deal is essentially done, 95% there, a lot of valley who, a lot of back padding among Trump himself, but his allies to pro-war allies were pretty horrified by the rumors coming out about the deal.

And so since then, things have started to unwind a little bit. On Sunday, there was a massive spin effort to push that there'd be dust for dollars. There'd be no dollars without nuclear dust. They were calling all their allies,

and should they knew that and that there'd be no toll on the street. And this morning, Monday, Iran is saying that they aren't charging a toll on the street, but they are charging an environmental protection fee. Which shows that the Iranians have learned a lot

from the liberal bureaucratic, no-inclature of the West. So anyway, that's the state of play

“where we're at now, Bill, what's your sense of things?”

- Trump desperately wants a deal. The Iranians know that. Or twisting the knife a little bit also, I think, as you can see with the environmental fee thing, giving them enough cover.

So the Trump will end up with a deal, it'll be murky, more even than these deals often are. And we'll see what really happens in terms of the nuclear material, in terms of opening the street.

But I think we're heading towards, I mean, we've been heading towards the deal for a while. I think some of us thought it was gonna happen for a long, long time.

Trump is basically announcing what's the deal.

I mean, the degree to which he can plus to a little bit and put up memes of, I don't know, us bombing Iran, or decimating places or Iran with an American flag, but at the end of the day, he wants out.

And I guess he'll get out, I think he will get out. - It's interesting, I noticed you're posting about this over the weekend. We had a initial, quite angry reaction from the Mark Levin's of the world.

Lindsey Graham, FDD, you know, that the major backers of the Trump War effort who felt like this was basically a disaster in a betrayal. As the hours go on, we're going through the same thing when it happened, after every Trump disaster,

January, sex, et cetera, where they all start to look at the bright side, spin things for Trump. What's your sense of that development? Is he gonna be able to get people to circle the wagons like usual, or is there something different

about the Iran situation? I mean, if you were a serious Iran hawk, let's say, who was going along with this, not because you were a lot of the Trump, but because you believed in certain things,

or in certain outcomes were important, it's not getting any of those outcomes, really. You're not getting regime change in Iran, or a liberation for the Iranian people, obviously, Trump gave up on that very early.

You're not getting a clear and unambiguous resolution of the nuclear issue, which Trump sort of defaulted to as this rationale for the war. And if you're more of a traditional, international order type of internationalist,

you're not getting, I don't think clarity on passage through the straight. You're not getting any kind of emphatic reiteration of a right to these international waters, so forth, you're getting Iran probably sort of,

as you just said, no, no toll, but maybe it's been environmental fees and plus blinding of one, at least, south of Vachay that they do have the ability to close the thing if they want to,

and it might be a good idea for some governments to negotiate with them to make sure their ships get through. So you're not getting any of the things you really care about, the nuclear issue, the straight or the fate of the Iranian regime. So if you're an honest, you don't hawk.

“You need to say this deal as a defeat for the U.S.,”

now you might still say as we've said, I think that better and defeat that doesn't risk more than in escalation, that risks U.S. lives and destruction of the infrastructure, and energy infrastructure in the Gulf

and the million other things,

but you gotta say it's the whole thing's been a defeat. And what strikes me is that, as you say on what are they maybe Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, some of the Trump supporting hawks were being honest hawks.

I predicted that and I think I'm still predicted by tomorrow, the Trump supporting hawks will 80% be Trump supporters, and they'll abandon their actual principle objections to that abandon, but we'll certainly mute their objections to this deal.

- Yeah, I just don't know that it's going to be

quite as the ciferous and quite as all-unlock step, as it has been in the past for a couple of reasons, because you have A, the dobs that end of a hawks,

“the America first crowd, that I think will probably”

want to grow, that they were right about all of this. So you'll have some wing within the Trump coalition that will not be trying to spend this shit sandwich into a chocolate cake, I think that they're gonna just say what they have said throughout the whole time.

And then, I think there'll be a little bit of a mix among the hawks. You know, this goes back to kind of the big theme of last week where Trump wins his revenge tour in these primaries of Cassidy Corn and then, and Massey,

but maybe loses the broader battle because he angers enough of the old school Republicans that they're not as excited to get in line. And you've seen this tell us over the weekend, he was on TV, really bashing Trump.

So that kind of crowd of McConnell, tell us, to the extent that I don't know how important they are really,

but I think there'll be some on the hawk wing

also to criticize them. So, you know, Lindsey Graham was gonna come around and say whatever Trump wants it, he can still get invited into the golf cart. You know, I wrote a book about that, so I'll come around.

But I do think that there are some fractures that was caused by this that were significant.

“And I think part of the continued version of that is,”

is the straight and the cost of gas. You know, prices are down today to that 90 bucks of bare all which is on the high end of acceptable, I guess. But it could still go back up again, who knows, that, you know, how long this goes,

this period of negotiation that we're still in, giving that last so, club 5%. The New York Times is a big piece this morning, even if a deal is finalized, the pre-war status quo and upward up 130 ships transit with the straight each day

would be weeks or even months away. I could just, there's a lot of logistical issues that still need to be ironed out. And gas prices are still really high. I think there's gonna be persistent negative impacts

from the second order of facts that are gonna create problems

for a while. And I think that also, you know, makes it a little harder for him to just get everybody to get on board. You know, after January 6, nobody, anybody who's living their life in America

doesn't really experience any negative impacts of January 6, so is this kind of attack on the democracy, this esoteric, like, people are still gonna be feeling negative impacts here. So do you think that's different?

“- No, I think that's an important point.”

And I also think, this is gonna be a real deal that's gonna finalize things. Then we can all go back to normal, maybe with somewhat higher gas prices, just because they still, you know,

that's the after-effect, as you say, of the straight have been closed all this time. It's gonna be murky and they're gonna be the ironings, you're gonna want to flex their muscles. So six weeks from now, after everything is settled down,

the ironings will deny passage to some one, or, you know, find an excuse to do something to remind people that they have control. So I agree, it doesn't go back to normal. The prices don't go down to where they were,

because of the risk factor in the straight. The nuclear negotiations are totally, so far, so I can tell, on settle, could be hiccups or more than hiccups there. Trump can't credibly, I don't think,

threaten the use of force, much, maybe a bombing or something, but he's actually moved to his back there after this thing gets sort of resolved here. In the next few days, I think.

So that leverage that he has had goes away, is real, I guess, retains that leverage, it doesn't go away, but it's lessened. It is real, it takes that leverage. I very struck by one thing.

Trump's trying to sell the deal, or sweeten the deal, by invoking, out of nowhere, honestly, the Abraham Accords, which are like entirely different thing, which, and suddenly it's like, you know what?

This is a part of, he knows the Abraham Accords are vaguely popular here to the degree people know what they are. And the guarded vaguely is successful, though what could have a separate discussion about if they actually lessened war, or tensions,

or instability in the Middle East, for that anyway, they were okay. That's pretty, and it seemed like a success. So it's definitely, I'm gonna get those other nations that aren't yet part of the Abraham Accords,

to be part of those Accords. We'll see, I mean, Saudi Arabia's not gonna join the Abraham Accords without a resolution, more for a solution. The Palestinian issue, they totally clear about that. Egypt has its own peace treaty with Israel.

They don't feel like they need to be told to be part of some accord with a bunch of Gulf states. I mean, I'm pretty dubious that any of that. - Back at Stan. - Yes, back at Stan.

- We really wanted to talk about this. - Reckonized Israel, that mate will pack us that as a favor to Trump, who's now their buddy, and maybe just a favor to China, in turn, which can get favors from Trump recognize Israel conceivably,

or sort of join the quote join, whatever that means even. It's not like they ever have a course like data. What do you join it? You know what I mean? They could say they're well disposed to them,

and want to have talks about it, sure. So there might be a little bit of cobbling of Trump here, but it is striking, is that's like someone told and remember those Abraham Accords, that's kind of one of your achievements.

So suddenly it's, and then it at the end didn't need one of those true social posts saying, "You know what, be good if Iran joined David." Of course, it's like you can't imagine the faces

- Yeah.

I mean, Israel side of it, and it seems like this is attempted

a pot-sweetener for Trump, because you know, I didn't mention this over the weekend reports or that, you know, BB and folks in Israel were unhappy with the contours of the deal. And so that's like a wild card in the situation.

Obviously Israel has more acute security concerns than we do in this situation. And so maybe something like come up that would make Israel decide that they, you know, do want to attack Lebanon again,

or Iran again for that matter, and like how that impacts the deal. And that's certainly possible in a wild card, but they have the reporting on the Abraham call. Like Trump was on a call with all his new friends,

Pakistan, Qatar, UAE, Saudi, and kind of made this for announcement last night. And one of the reports from Israeli news source said that the ultimatum was met with literal silence. The Arab leaders were so stunned by the audacity

that were a class that Trump had to break the silence

himself. So, you know, we'll see what happens with that. - One thing I've been noticing is I get older is that I'll wake up after a pretty casual night of drinking. Maybe one or two, glass is a wine and still feel

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for 20% off. After you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell 'em we sent you. Just for kicks on the spin of all this, I saw this video going around this weekend.

I wanna share it because, you know, people that listen to this show. I mean, how often do we put on the hair shirt? Well, I knew and I are very, very happy to discuss our mistakes and bad predictions.

You know, the policy of radical candor. This gives you a little insight into what is happening inside the, you know, maga propaganda sphere. This is a guy with a relatively popular podcast named Dave Rubin. And so I wanna put together a highlight reel of his predictions

and comments on the war over the course of the last few months.

“And I think it tells us a little bit about the question”

of whether Trump will have people still spinning for him after this deal is done. Let's listen to Dave Rubin's take on the war. - Everything that the media is now gonna say about Iran is gonna close this rate of war moves.

And energy prices are gonna go crazy. And all these none of this is going to come to pass. Gas prices are coming down and we'll continue to come down. If the United States wants to keep the rate of war moves open, which it does, and Donald Trump said,

we'll escort ships through if we have to. It's going to stay open. This is the leader of the Iranian opposition. He has been in exile. His name is Reza Palavi,

we have shown you videos in before. He's the eldest son of the former Shah of Iran and he likely is the next leader of Iran. For decades, they will study how this incredible war

took place, that's we are hitting critical infrastructure.

We are damaging the regime, so hopefully the people will be able to take over their country. - And there's a whole nother minute of it, but I think you get the gist. I just miss after miss after miss and it is,

it's kind of remarkable that people still tune back in, I guess, for a show like that, but he has nice suit jackets. - I wonder what you'll say to the, I don't follow him to be honest, but I wonder what you'll say this week.

Do you think he, is he one who will say this didn't work out or is he one who will say no? - No, okay, it's worked out. - It's one of you that didn't work out. - Oh yeah, they'll study it.

For generations, the deal that Trump did, the deal was so beautiful, it was the best deal ever. You can just see what kind of impact you can have with only minimal loss of life. Think about how long the Vietnam war was compared

to this, I think you'll get all that. But my last thing on this, though I just went on through a couple other topics.

“And you mentioned this, but I think it's worth just”

really sticking on it. If you look at the original goals set out

what's what Trump said as what he was calling for with Iran, they wanted regime change to get rid of the Khomei family and the Irishy state. As you mentioned, they wanted freedom for the Iranian people.

They, after all of those obviously want to happen, know the Rubio and Hexaf line really switched to, we wanna limit or end their ability to project power in the region, you know, through their proxies, through their ballistic missile program.

And we wanna make sure that they cannot attack allies in the region. All of those are off the table now. Like not even close to achieving any of those. The last thing that they now have felt found back on

is this nuclear material.

And that's basically the only one of the original goals

that they even could plausibly have a positive outcome on. And we'll see if that's even possible. - And they seem to be getting ready to relax sanctions, give Iran a lot back, a lot of frozen assets, give them frozen assets, much greater quantity than Obama,

notoriously did in his deal. And they're hoping to kind of reopen the straight, which was open and truly open without any toll to any nonsense about other fees, you know, for decades before that, before we began this adventure.

So I mean, how can one say we haven't lost quite a substantial amount of ground? And this is even not even talking about the broader effects around the world of our allies, like a confidence that us and so forth.

“I mean, it's a pretty disastrous thing, honestly.”

- Yeah. - The US, I say this without obviously, that's bad. On the other hand, Trump deserves all the blame for it, because guess what?

This was not a war that was authorized by Congress.

This is not a war that had bipartisan support. This is not a war that they made a case to the country about and then it turns out that the case wasn't quite what people hoped it would be. This is Trump's war.

- All right, I wanna run through a couple of other headlines. I wanna flag this story about the continued weaponization of the DOJ, F1 reason in particular. Federal investigators are serving subpoenas to left-wing streamer Hassan Piker

and the codepink co-founder of Benjamin as part of a probe into their aid kind of voice to Cuba. Earlier this year, they'd gone to Cuba to bring aid after we started the blockade. Piker says before, is Trump to Cuba,

he cleared it with the Office of Foreign Assets Control. Piker and Benjamin say the travel came as an authorized category of providing aid for Cubans and they stayed in a hotel allowed under U.S. regulations.

Interestingly, there have been some mega influencers, like Nick Shirley, that went to Cuba and stayed in hotels that are sanctioned. So, but I bring this up because these guys, this stuff is not an accident.

Like they do this on purpose. And it takes me back to the John Bolton thing, right?

And one thing that we always were saying

when they went after John Bolton was, they pick enemies that they think that they can go after without blowback, right? And that's a combi, too. You know, Jim Colme, not a lot of friends.

John Bolton, not a lot of friends. Piker and Benjamin, they have their friends on the anti-war left, but in the Democratic establishment, you think these guys don't want to be tied to them and you're not going to see Chuck Schumer,

or whatever, going aggressively to their defense.

“And so I just think that's why it's important to talk about,”

they've been doing this mostly targeting foes in, you know, either never trump or types, or, you know, going after people that had been in the administration and were, you know, the Miles Taylor's of the world, the Chris Krebs, Turncodes, you know,

or it kind of the people that were going directly at Trump on the various investigations. And like this is kind of a new category of people that's in the same vein of what they're trying to do. And it's totally unacceptable.

- My only fun about today would be to strike, they're going up to people to go to Cuba. I mean, a lot of people to go to Cuba for the last months, and years including on to Trump, I believe, as soon as the idea director was there,

talking to the Cubans, we could go or something like that. I mean, they're all trying to work out, I suppose, some kind of quasi-vigime change. I love Venezuela and Cuba. And in any case, this is part of,

don't you think of the ratcheting up of this support here at home for, we need to do something about Cuba. I mean, Rubio said several times the last two weeks, Cuba is a national security threat to the US. It's like, really?

- Well, they put a lot of national security council meetings in the last two years, the last 10 years about the Cuban threat, maybe I may be, maybe I missed that somewhere, you know? Once he accepts whatever Kramer Deal is going to accept that

around, I do think Cuba is right across areas. And maybe this is a little bit of groundwork leg for that. - Yeah. - Absolutely.

“Yeah, I know, I think this is a two-prong thing.”

One, it's again, they're trying to go after people that they, you know, think that it's politically beneficial to go after using the Justice Department, which is just their ML, the total weaponization of the Justice Department to go after foes.

And in this case, also, yeah, that predicate and continuing

And I think that the end of this Iran thing, if you just think about it from a psychological perspective, like they're gonna feel like they need a cleaner win. And they're gonna try to move into Cuba. I feel's inevitable to me.

I do wanna mention the continued Trump health issues that we're just not getting a lot of information about.

He is tomorrow, expect him to undergo his third scheduled

medical checkup in 13 months at Walter Reed. They say it's a scheduled follow-up to the last time he was there where he received the CT scan, but they won't tell us what it was for. And they didn't tell us he got a CT scan

that kind of leaked out afterwards. In addition to the three trips to Walter Reed, he's also had the two dental visits in Florida, that he said to do five visits. That's a lot in 13 months.

I don't know, Bill, how many times have you been to the doctor the last 13 months? - Good, we're off of him, but I think, yeah, maybe we'll have him come on. - Yeah, you're less than five.

And also, I don't have a medical office in my basement here, but just quite well equipped and very capable doctors and people will come to the White House to attend to you too from Walter Reed. So it is pretty striking.

- You know, the bruises on the neck, the hands.

He isn't looking good. It's meaningful in part because of the concerns. I could give him what is happening with Iran and the high stakes. They're trying to overcompensate with Steven Chun,

your friends, Steven Chun's in the White House, going Trump worked today from eight until nine. And we're trying to end the war that we started with Iran. That's kind of what you got to do.

It's work if you're going to try to do that. And so the high stakes of that with his diminishment is noticeable, I guess I'm concerning in alignment. - As psychologically, this is an ABU fighter who just discussed this maybe a bit of a month ago,

she's very sure about this. Does it make him more extreme and more of his take

“or if to be this a little bit of a mortality sensor?”

A little bit of a sense, let's just say that maybe he's not well enough to run again in two years. I do think if that, if the running again in two years is there in a big way, probably makes him a little more politically sensitive to public opinion

and however many votes they can steal and intimidate all that. If it's really kind of a ball in, this is the moment, whatever, I think it's a little dangerous, give it his psyche. I don't know who knows about his psyche, but.

- Same, either to. - Lauren, he can last night, our colleague wrote about a list, I guess, of the circulating among democratic operatives for replacing Ken Martin, you know, among the names on there.

My guy Beto Rork, former heads of like the SEIU and Emily's list, Ben Wickler, who is Wisconsin Chair, who ran against Ken Martin and lost narrowly, and has said he wants nothing to do with this disaster. So I think that's more of a wish casting list.

Does this matter to you? Like what do you think the state of play is with Ken Martin? - He did bungalow that autopsy thing pretty badly and then having bungalow that bungalow that's some more battery.

I didn't even follow up very closely with him. So with ludicrous, he released it, but they released it hardly with all kinds of errors and it wasn't really, he didn't want to release it, so it wasn't an official release, it was like,

what, I mean, just as a basic, I mean, the one thing the DNC for all their, maybe not mattering ultimately about how many seats you win, these absolutely have communications professionals there who know how to release their report in a timely manner

and go through it for typos, I don't know, I guess not. So yeah, I don't know, matter enough.

“- The money thing I think is, to me, I look at all this,”

and it's like the one thing that does matter, which is, you know, the Republicans are raising a bunch more money, particularly at the national committee level, you can understand what people want to give money to the DNC right now.

Some of that is unfair, some of that is their fault, but the kind of finger pointing on all that ultimately doesn't matter.

The reality is, like Democrats need the resources to compete,

you know, the house instead of their own fundraising committees, so this matters more in state races and down ballot and also, but just broader efforts that lift all boats, registration, et cetera. To me, it doesn't really even have anything to do with,

like Ken Martin personally, I've never met Ken Martin, I don't know, who knows, maybe this has been unfair, the least been treated, I don't know, but it's like at this point, you just need somebody in there that can bring confidence back,

so that the committee can raise some money they need, and I would just like, why not just hire somebody in the vein of Betta or whoever, like that can go on to TV, be competent, that the donors will return their calls,

and to me that is like the potential move. All right, anything else in politics, do we get to some Memorial Day reflections,

“anything else catching your eye in the Senate or house races?”

- That's a bit of anything dramatic, and I guess tomorrow is the Texas primary, and we'll see Pexton defeat Gordon presumably. We've had to, what a fantastic thing, it would be after all the trauma and everyone conceding

the voters of Texas, both Republican voters of Texas, I don't expect this to happen, but still decide, well, what the hell, you know, we'll just stick with Gordon, you know, be something.

- I can't only see Gordon humiliated. - Well, it's fair. - But I'm not interested in whether that was on my mind

Trump did from the plane, from Air Force One,

that's an ad money already going up there to go after tell a Rico, and so I don't know, I think that's pretty telling. - Yeah, to me, about their level of concern,

“and I think maybe their hope is a concern about Paxton,”

as well, but, you know, maybe the bet is they go and put a bunch of money in trying to paint tell a Rico is whatever, not of touch, lefty, and they can not have to spend as much in Texas in the at, right, that they can fortify the race,

maybe that's their thinking, but if you go back in time a year, and we said, hey, May 25th, Republicans are putting in a bunch of money to go after the Democrat nominee in Texas in the Senate, that would not be a great sign for their red term chances.

- Yeah, Josie, how much things have changed in the year, really in six and five, even go back four, five months, people would not have believed this possible, right? So that's striking. - Yeah, even I interviewed Teller,

and whenever that was, what was that? March, two months, three months ago,

I used talented, but I was always caviotting,

when people asked me about it, I was like, I think it's a long shot,

“I think it's a bit of a stretch, you know,”

Alaska seems a little more likely, and I do think the dynamics change, it's pretty significant, like. We had, in the bull work, Mark Hartling, and our former colleague Will Selber, you know,

writing some memorial data reflections, you talk to Michael Wood, friend of the show, former candidate from Congress, and veteran in Texas, yesterday in your Sunday conversation, I'm just hoping between all of that,

and, you know, your life, you can leave us with some memorial day wisdom. - My memorial is that people should read Mark Hartling's piece and Will Selber's piece from a couple of years ago that we'd put back up on the side,

and then listen to Michael Wood, who served in Afghanistan in 2010, 2012, Purple Hearts, and the veterans have a different understanding and appreciation of, I can say, have a memorial day,

“than maybe the rest of us or certainly than I think I do,”

and deeper understanding of kind of what it means, and that also that it's not for them just one day, as Michael Wood made this point to me, you know, and Mark Hartling makes this point fairly likely. Every day he has on his desk, a box with photos

of the 230, maybe people who served under his command, who were killed in Iraq, and he looks at them, opens the box and reflects them on their sacrifice. So trust, honestly it's more of a, perhaps a one day, not one day, you're hopefully, but Memorial Day

is sort of special and it should be special. But for people who served, it's a more constant thing.

I always thought it's a very moving holiday

in a very appropriate holiday, and the way which we celebrated, I've always thought, is very American in the good sense. I mean, a ceremony, Arlington, pre-Trump, at least a president giving, you know,

appropriate memorial remarks, many, many Memorial Day parades, and gatherings all around the country, without much grandeur, but with a lot of sincerity, and people putting flags and cemeteries all around the country, sort of the opposite,

honestly, of Trump's power of large. - Yeah. All right, well, shout out, much love and appreciation to all the veterans listening and the families of veterans and folks who I'd love one

so we lost overseas, thinking about you today. I attend this podcast and head on back to New Orleans, so we can have a get back to regular business tomorrow. So enjoy the holiday, build crystal, thanks for joining me this morning,

and everybody else will see you back here tomorrow, peace. (upbeat music) - The Board podcast is brought to you, thanks to the Lord of Lead Producer Katie Cooper, Associate Producer Ansley Skipper,

and with video editing by Katie Lutz, an audio engineering in editing by Jason Brown.