This Happens Before Every Attack

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and in the action app. Action, a little price, cross-in-froider. Welcome to the watch for "I'm Sarah Adams," when people think about the decision logic behind a terrorist attack, they usually just assume it's based on ideology.

That's only partially true. You need more than ideology to carry it on a tap. You need someone to make a real decision. You need the person or the head of a group to choose the target. To decide when to strike.

To determine what are the vulnerabilities.

“And then how do we get around these security weaknesses?”

And then is now the time to have a success? And does it trump the risks right now to even carry out this event? Today we're not going to focus on why terrorists believe what they believe. We're going to talk about the thinking behind successful attacks. And what is a success?

We're going to walk through three real world attacks. We're going to talk about the 2008 Mumbai attacks in India, carried out by Lashgaritaiba. We're going to talk about the 2013 Westgate Mall attack in Nairobi, Kenya, carried out by Olshabab. And then we're going to talk about the November 2015

Paris attacks carried out by ISIS. So we have three different regions, three different groups. But you'll see they have a lot of the same and underlying decision-making processes. It's not just about what happened when we talk about these attacks. It's how in why certain decisions were made to either prolong these attacks,

to choose the correct targets, to lead to higher casualties. Because once you understand this decision logic, you can start seeing the signs before an attack even happens. There's a common belief that terrorists choose targets solely based on symbolism. And that's not wrong, but it's incredibly incomplete.

So terrorists choose targets based on a number of things, and they weigh certain factors. So when we talk about those factors, they are psychological impact, accessibility, vulnerability, ability to control the environment and media attention.

“It's not exactly the question is this target symbolic?”

The question more is, how can we get at the target and be successful? A really great example of this. And a question I've heard people have before is, when it comes back to our Benghazi attacks, they say, "Okay, well, if I'll kind of want it ambassador,

a more symbolic target that was based in Tripoli, then wait and try to get him at kind of this outpost, which was a US mission, and we call it the consulate where he rarely spent time.

“And this is really important for people to understand.”

So of course, the terrorists looked at both locations, and they decided the US Embassy was a lot more fortified. So yes, that is a more symbolic target, right? It would have brought maybe more media attention, but their goal was to capture the US ambassador.

So they had to make the tactical decision of when it was best to capture him. And then as you can imagine, they had to be flexible and fluid, because they did not know when he would come to Benghazi. So as most people know Ambassador Stevens was in Libya,

during the Revolution in 2011, he went home, got appointed the ambassador, came back in May. It was in June of 2012 that the terrorists decided to do this attack, and then the ambassador stayed in Tripoli in June. He stayed in Tripoli in July.

He was supposed to travel to Benghazi,

“and August, he got canceled for security reasons.”

Finally, it was decided in early September that he would travel to Benghazi, and it was September six when the terrorists quickly put in the last pieces of the plot, to carry out this operation. And again, it's because it was a weaker security posture.

He was much more time in place predictable. And there was actually a bigger terrorism force in that city to even help support this event. So I just want you to keep those things in mind.

It might not always be something like the US embassy,

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Again, that's watch to 64,000 for two free gifts. Watch to 64,000. Message and data rates may apply. See terms for details. Let's jump into our three case studies.

The first case studies from November 26 and 2018,

this is when the 10 last grade type of terrace carried out kind of this massive assault in Mumbai. So this event lasted over 60 hours. Unfortunately, 166 people were killed over 300 were injured. I mean, this is a pretty massive event.

Some of the main locations at a current was the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel, which was like the most luxurious hotel in the city, the Oberai Trident Hotel. This was known for a lot of international and business visitors. And then, of course, the train terminal, this is a historic place.

It was even a world heritage site.

And lastly, the nairam house, which was a Jewish target.

“And again, it kind of shows you the breadth of some of the targeting”

options in this. So each of these locations really did serve a different purpose for the terrace. So the hotels allowed them to control space, take hostages, extend the attack, the train station gave them an opportunity

to carry out a mass casualty event. And then the Jewish welcoming center allowed them to do more of a religious impact and to ensure that they also kind of hit on international targets, even though there are plenty as well within the hotels.

So this attack wasn't like symbolic versus practical. It was both working in concert. So it was playing in a very smart way. And like in any attack at the scale, they conducted reconnaissance ahead of time.

They used GPS and satellite imagery. They entered the city by sea to be undetected. During the attack, they were sharing and receiving real time information update so they can make changes and flex and move farther away from where law enforcement was posturing.

And the event was planned for a maximum effect and it was incredibly successful. Before in the attack happens, of course, terrorists have to really have the discussion about what all has to go right for this to succeed,

especially something is complex as what we saw in Mumbai. And reconnaissance and all the pre-attack preparations are key to this.

“You have to spend the time on target to make this happen.”

So attackers visited locations multiple times. They watched the security behaviors at these locations. They identified the weak points. They paid attention to when crowds were the highest. And this isn't random.

It's deliberate testing. And if you stay tuned to the watch floor, we're going to do a follow-up episode to talk about those science people miss in advance of terrorists attack. So we won't just discuss how the terrorists think about it.

We actually want you to know what to look for. So you can help report if there's anything suspicious and to get ahead of this type of planning and plotting. Obviously, Mumbai was a highly coordinated event.

But studies show that between 25 to 35 percent of terrorists,

even if they're just low in attackers, actually go conduct on the ground surveillance.

“And then of course, when it's a coordinated event,”

that percentage is even higher. So that work, as you can imagine, reduces uncertainty for the terrorists when they go carry out the attack. But it gives us an opportunity to see something out of the ordinary and reported.

Let's jump into our second case study. This one is from September 21, 2013, when all Shabbat terrorists entered the Westgate Mall in Nairobi. In this attack lasted four days. I spent lots of time watching this one over and over

because you learned so much from it. So 67 people were killed in more than 170 people were injured. And Westgate wasn't really like globally symbolic in some way. But what mattered is it was a great operational target because 25,000 people per day went into this mall.

I mean, that's a massive number. The other thing is because it's a mall. It had multiple entrances. You know, there was inconsistent security, even for such a high level of foot traffic.

Investigation showed that the terrorists went to the mall multiple times and they looked for, of course, where the guards were placed. You know, when they're just changing, they identified different gaps in security.

They understood the peak hours. And then they made sure to exploit everything they learned from being inside.

You know, there's a key takeaway here.

The target does not have to be symbolic. The attack itself can create symbolism. So attackers are really making practical decisions. Are asking a few questions. First, what can I realistically access?

Do I even know how to use this tool? You know, what fits into the environment? We're going to be operating in and will using this tool create the outcome I want. So the weapon isn't exactly the point.

The outcome is. I want to break that down just for a second. So accessibility matters.

and the attack is carried up by a knife. And a lot of people are like, well, why didn't they just get like an assault rifle and use it, right? But in some places, it's incredibly difficult to get those kind of weapons, especially if you're alone,

attacker, and you're not a part of an actual terrorist movement where they bring the weapons to you. So you have to use what is available. And you'll see in terrorist trading camps, they train on these type of things.

So if you're in an ISIS camp, you will spend more time learning how to employ a knife in an attack. You know, when you're in a kind of camp, you know, they know you'll be able to get the weapons. So you spend a lot of time working actually in small teams.

You learn how to make like ID's. They also teach you kind of the next step up. Hey, you're likely going to be near big crowds. You know, let's show you how to make like vehicle bombs or larger suicide bombs, et cetera.

It's always going to depend on the environment,

you know, what tool you use. So in tighter spaces, we see firearms and knives in open crowded spaces. You know, we might see a series of ID's or vehicle bombings. And then in controlled environments,

where someone might have to go through security, we might see some sort of like hidden explosive device. You know, like we talk about with the old underwear bomber. Let's just look in 2016 at the niece truck attack, right? That's when the terrorists decided to attack the best deal-day

celebrations. Obviously, this was a densely packed crowd. So it was easier to get through the barriers and get at the crowd.

“If you use like a box truck, and that's why it was chosen, right?”

So it could cause like a mass casualty or really inflict damages. Attackers don't actually need like a certain firearm, a special explosive or a complex weapon system. The environment itself becomes a vulnerability.

Let's move to the third case study.

This was on November 13th, 2015 in Paris. This was when ISIS carried out the coordinated attacks on the city. Across multiple locations, we unfortunately had 130 people killed. 350 injured. They focused on a number of places.

Obviously, most know about the botaclon theater, the stondae, France, and then multiple restaurants and cafes that the terrorists observed during their reconnaissance prior to this event. So the attack was actually in this case coordinated across borders. There is planning from Syria, from Belgium.

And then, of course, right inside of France, they use safe houses. They move weapons between France and Belgium. They use encrypted communications. They coordinated the timing of the events. So multiple chaotic events would occur at the same time.

And as you know, that stretches security pretty thin. It also creates a lot of misinformation and a lot of panic. They use suicide vests to guarantee lethality. They use automatic weapons to sustain the attack. And then they use multiple teams to ensure the tax can continue

and that they can help push off or delay any sort of first responders

from getting to the scene. So every decision reinforced the necks. And here we had nine attackers working in concert in a very similar

“to Mumbai to carry out this level of an attack, right?”

They all had to think together. So we walked through three different case studies, three different attacks. But they all had very similar patterns, if you notice, right? There wasn't really a single decision. There is a chain of events.

We had the outcome, the target, the location, reconnaissance. Any sort of adjustments that need to make during the attacks. And then of course, the execution of the entire event. At any point, those plans could change or adjust. You know, terrorists when they're on the objective.

They're much more flexible than what people realize. Because when they're going through their dry runs and their practice, they prepare for if, oh, I might have to shift locations. Or, oh, what if a law enforcement officer arrives sooner? Oh, wait, what if our IDs don't go off?

So they're constantly thinking through those what ifs of how I'm going to shift certain real time they are better prepared to make decisions on the fly.

“Remember, when we're talking about a terrorist attack,”

the goal isn't exactly the target. The goal is the outcome of the event. And so that's the way this terrorist think about it. And that's the way we have to keep it on the top of our minds. Now, let's talk a little bit about reality here.

It's either the fault of the attackers.

Maybe they prepared the bombs wrong.

“Or, we do have a trained first responder or security guard,”

et cetera, that steps up and stops the event. Like huge wins.

We also though have the public involved.

So when there is this planning going on in their surveillance stages, any tips coming in on that, of course can also help thwart the attack.

“And sometimes you don't even know an attack was thwarted, right?”

Doesn't as an attack skip thwarted a year. And there maybe was one little piece that stopped it.

We never know the final result would have been or what it would look like.

But that is the wins we want, right? It all comes down to observation. So if we have people noticing unusual behavior repeated surveillance, strange questions and just the testing of boundaries around certain locations, these tips help play a role in stopping attacks.

And we're going to keep putting out episodes that helps you better think through what you really should be looking for. If there's one thing to understand, it's this. Terrorist attacks don't start with a target. They start with an outcome.

Everything else, including the location, the timing, the weapons, and even the symbolism are all chosen to actually make the preferred outcome possible. And if you understand that, you'll stop seeing attacks as random, and you'll start seeing the decisions behind them.

“And that's what we want to empower you to do.”

Thanks for being here today on The Watch for.