Is the Battle for Green Over? | TdF 2026 Stage 12 | THEMOVE+

wait until the finish line to celebrate, it was already like five minutes, five meters before

“the finish. It was actually surreal to watch because it looked close and then he's celebrating,”

but he must have known he had it. I mean, fifth, so third win of this tour, six stage stage

winner of his career and he's only started three tour differences. That's shocking and didn't go to the tour between 2020 to 2023 and 2024. He was absent from this race, but yeah, you know, you'll, I've been waiting all day to ask you this question, and see the best springer in the world right now. Yeah, the best. Yeah. You were sprinting for sure. Everybody, welcome back to the move plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with

Johan Bernal. We are breaking down stage 12 of the Tour de France, one by Tim Merleier, over Olaf Coie and Jasper Phillipsen in the finals sprint finish. We'll see this of this tour. We'll discuss that.

It's his third stage win of the tour. He's the best pure sprinter. He's probably not

getting up when the green jersey, which we'll talk about, which Matt Spetter since still has. We'll also preview stage 13. And Johan, I do want to get your take on the sprint finish, but I also want to back this up all the way to the beginning of the stage with the break formation was pretty interesting. The intermediate sprint sprint, which was interesting, which was won by not Patterson, Patterson won it out of the Peloton, because there was a single break away away.

Baptiste, Verstorhofer, Verstorhofer, was a, was a, was a baseball fan, Verstorfer. Such a unusual name for a Frenchman. Yeah, most attacking rider of the whole Tour de France, right?

He does. Yeah, he deserves some sort of prize, because he's always out there. But tell me what

you thought about this break away formation and the intermediate sprint? Yeah, I mean, the break, that was kind of to be expected. Verstorhofer was by himself. And then, you know, these other three guys joined later on. I think the first, you know, really interesting fact of the day was the intermediate sprint. Verstorhofer gets to 25 points, but then we saw the sprint of the, of the favourites for the Green Jersey, Patterson, Philipson, go away with my counter. I don't know, I mean,

“no, I don't know if Koi was trying to get points. I don't remember that now. But anyway,”

there was some, I mean, Patterson won that sprint in front of Philipson. But there was some controversy during the stage. We could see, first of all, when you look at the helicopter shot, you can see Matt Spetterson starting in the middle of the road, drifting bit by bit to the right side of the road with Patterson, with Philipson on the wheel. Philipson was not next to him. And there was a debate, you know, whether he would be disqualified. I could see that

Patterson got called to the race director, Jerry Carr, which is the second time now we see this in this two of the fronts. I mean, usually they just take action and they don't talk to you. You know, this is what we see. We saw it with the loto guy. Remember the loto guy who got a warning for illegal arm position in the early stages. Today also, then I saw this interaction between the team car of little track and Patterson saying, you know, while they're looking at the images,

maybe they're going to relegate you for the sprint and then finally, you know, he got the sprint, got the 20 points. And I just saw in the official race communication that he got a warning. You know, when I looked at that Spencer, I thought it was a bit of a stretch to consider disqualifying him. Whatever we see is, you know, a moment image of, you know, like, and of course, we're watching the guys who really know most what going on is the guys who are in the heat of the

action. For me personally, without looking at the images, the fact that they sprinted and that the guy who got beaten Philipsen straight away, congratulated Mads Patterson tells me that there was nothing going on. It was just a sprint, you know, and otherwise Patterson Philipsen would have complained and

“he would not have congratulated him. At least not, you know, in the heat of the action. So I think it”

was a bit of an exaggeration to consider disqualifying him. He did not bother anybody. He did not put anybody a danger. He did definitely deviate from his line. That's that's true. But, you know, all sprinters do, but as we, as we discussed, like having PTSD, remember we were going to the rules.

yeah, was it lane? Was it line? Who knows? Actually, it was both. It was both. It was both Spencer. I love the day. It was middle of the road to the fence. He went over to the fence. I love that they talked to the guys, though. It's so much better than just had some decision that's made and then it's done. So I rest support that. So that was that was important. Patterson gets the 20 points.

Philipsen is just so Philipsen gets third and get my only gets sixth. So it looks to me like

get my is probably the most dangerous rival for Patterson for the Green Jersey. But anyway,

“I'm going to talk about the sprint afterwards. I think I think after today,”

better shins the happy favorite for the Green Jersey. Yeah, we'll talk about this later. But I think I think that there's the hidden takeaway of the day is that Matt's Patterson won the Intermit one the Green Jersey. But we'll get our thoughts on that later. What did you think about Timmerlers win? Pretty impressive. Where's this guy coming from? Before we talk about the sprint Spencer, I take away of the day, Patterson. But my take of the day, actually, my move of the day

is quit Simmons, quit Simmons, but not for his attacking. Because of this picture here, if Gabriel can put it up on screen. I mean, the guy started to attack in the final part of the little track strategy, but he was going and he saw his father and while he was attacking on front of the Peloton, he high five says that. I mean, that's like that's that's very unique. I don't think he's

ever seen that. Yeah, I mean, I've never seen this. I've never seen this, but that's that's my move of the day.

You know, the attack and while I fighting while he attacks, when you see your father, who, by the way, looks exactly the same as quit Simmons or, I mean, probably the other way around, quit Simmons looks exactly the same as it's that. They kind of look in similar age, in similar fitness levels. I feel like his dad could be rising professionally. I've heard I've heard that his that is incredibly

“fit of a great size. I mean, I think he's a skier. No, he's like a mountaineer skier.”

Yeah, they call it skimo, ski mountaineering. Yeah, I've heard it makes cycling seem really easy. It's that it's a horrible Italy taxi. Yeah, I think I think if I'm not mistaken, I think Gwen Simmons was third in the world championships junior skimo. I would make sense because I think he's I heard him on Grant Thomas's podcast and he said his goal is to go to the winter Olympics in skimo. So he must be very good. Yeah. I would actually love to see him try. We'll see hopefully

he teams that he go to are okay with him swimming his time with that. But I think I told the story on here. I did race against his dad and he came by so fast that I thought it was a joke and

then we just never saw him again. We never saw him again. It wasn't very good. So you've seen how

good he is. Okay. Yeah, I mean, like yell like yell like a cowboy yihai when he came by. I was like,

“oh, that's that's a funny thing to do. What was it like? He's got like a gravel race or something?”

It's called Iron Horse. It's a road race. It's a really historic road race in Durango where they're from and it goes from Durango to Silverton, which is an old mining town and it's like multiple mountain passes a very unique and cool race that I believe net over in one like many times. That's like net over and it's claimed to fade other than the mountain bike world champion. But Johan, Quinn Simba, before we talk about the end of the stage where Quinn Simba was lighting it up,

was Quinn Simba would anything have helped him with his performance today. Is there anything you want to talk about? Yeah, we have a new sponsor, Spencer, for the remainder of these two of the fronts. Keyton eight. You know, everybody knows about key tones and, you know, most of the riders, if not everybody in professional cycling and in most endurance sports, take key tones before the race after the stage, especially for recovery. So we have key tone eight on board for, for this

two of the fronts and in key tone eight is actually the one of the first, if not the first manufacturer who actually marketed the key tone Esther. It's a little bit less known to the consumers, but it's for sure very well known by the pros. Me personally, I have still quite some connections in the Peloton and I've been when people have asked me about key tones. I've been using key tone eight for quite a while. It's a small bottle. This is 25 grams of key tone Esther. You can

take a little bit, this has 10 servings. You know, when people ask me family, friends, I usually

“recommend key tone eight. It's great to have them now as a formal sponsor, but it's usually what”

I have recommended. There also the official sponsor, key tone sponsor of to the France teams to the quick step and XDS Astana. They're their official key tone sponsor, but I do know that there are several teams and individual riders who actually purchase key tone as an individual, because they prepared this compared to other more diluted versions that are out there on the market. Sometimes even the ones that are sponsored by other products, other key tone products, they buy

key tone eight. It's an Esther. This is the key. It's the Esther bond. Most of the other products out there are key tone salts or key tone dials and they work. They don't work as well as the Esther. So for our the move listeners, there's a special action during the Tour de France. You either scan the QR code here on the screen or you go to ketone8.com and use the code to the move. Check out for 50% of 15% of this is a very special offer because ketone8 usually

never offers discounts not even during Black Friday. So ketone8.com/demoof for 15% off.

Not even the teams are getting a discount. They're buying this thing of full price. Exactly. You're going to get a discount at ketone8.com/demoof. But yeah, I've actually heard the same thing you want that I've been poking around and there's some teams that are buying their own key tones who are sponsored by a key tone, like key tone companies, which is kind of interesting. Yeah, fascinating. Well, and there's another product we'll talk about it later. There's there's actually

some interesting stuff with nutrition going on that we will get into in future episodes. But finish of this stage. Quint Simmons jacked up on key tones coming into these final climbs. This was way more active than I thought it would be. I was did not expect this and it looked like a one day race almost. You had Simmons and Matthias Vitechek trying to split it on a climb before the last cut before the categorized climb, which is 2.5k at 4% which I didn't think

it was going to be hard enough. Nothing really stuck, but it was just a lot of attacking and even Matt's Petterson was attacking at one point with Visma closing it down, which I didn't understand at all. But what was your take on on this? Yeah. I mean, it's little track who's instigated these attacks and they kept attacking even with Skeleton Moses. You know, Jesus. So they obviously had a plan to to make it hard and to try to really disorganize

“the Peloton. Not so much I think for Petterson to win this stage, but to create a situation where”

the points were not available for the real sprinters. I think that was their tactic. And so of course, they had to try. It was hard there for a while. You know, it was different different groups. When Simmons was very active, Vodcheck was very active. Even people Ghana was in the break away. I mean, you had Ghana up their pulling as hard as it could, like you know that that's hard. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So I think it was it was it was it was a good initiative.

At the same time, you know, you need significant hard terrain to drop these sprinters nowadays. I mean, these, it's not enough. It's not enough. Especially if it's been a race which has been relatively easy in the wheels, you know, they can, these sprinters can get over those little climbs. It's short, you know, it's two, three minute efforts. They can do that. It's not easy to drop a sprinter in this into the cycling. The funny thing is if we all

rode, if you know, we went out as a big, the move plus group and then this course, the end of the

stage would say there's no way they come in together. It's too hard. Like that's always my

impression when I ride these courses. Yeah. And it's, it's actually shocking what these sprinters can withstand. The speed that they were going and the terrain, they were going over you would think would explode a group. And it, it didn't really affect the sprinters as we saw because they came into

“the sprint, Alps and DeConic, as we, I think we talked about this yesterday, there's no GC teams.”

So it leaves it up to these sprint teams. They have to take it up from so far out, Alps and DeConic, either they time to perfectly, they shoot up with a kilometer left. They've got multiple lead-out riders for Jasper Phillips and then Tim Merler, as he has been doing it this tour, just kind of appears out of nowhere. He is one guy, Jasper Stoivan, who had a flat tire, guiding them through the sprint and Merler just times it perfect when it wins the sprint. What

was your take on that? Yeah. I mean, you know, once again, we saw, you know, close to perfectly

it's not just the Jasper Phillips and we are used to seeing the tour of France. And I think I haven't seen it, but I've read somewhere in his post race interview that he admits himself that, you know, there's a few sprinters who just faster than right now, you know,

“fair play the him, he admits it. I think it's obvious, it's obvious, but, yeah, this is not the”

Phillips and that we have seen in former tour de France editions. And then, yeah, I'm a Leirman, listen, he's, he's, he's in a league of his own, you know, he finds his own, he has the team that controls the break away and then he just has Jasper Stoivan in the final and just uses Jasper Stoivan to bring him within the last kilometer, basically. Today, although today, Stoivan didn't did a great job, and he actually brought him a lot closer than that, but merely for some reason, sometimes loses the

wheel. By the way, amazing performance of Stoivan, he did exactly the same for Paul Manier in the

Giro, so this is a guy who comes from the Giro, then had a few amazing stages in breakaways and and is still in the studio France on an incredibly high level, especially for these stages. I think I don't think we're going to see Jasper Stoivan at the same individual level in the studio France, as we saw him in the Giro, because I've heard that he's quite tired, but, you know, he did a great job. I mean, that was a really good transfer, you know, for from Stovan.

Really, yeah, I'm really good transfer, came from a little track, right? Yeah, yeah. And then, Leir, you know, he has this ability to just serve the wheels, find, find his spot,

“and even if he thinks he's out of position today, for example, that's how fast his”

guy is, as soon as he gets a clear road. I think it was probably within, it was a bit hectic, and there was a lot of movement. And I think in the last 200 meters, at some point, Leir is kind of stuck between, he has the free wheel to avoid a crash. So obviously, you lose speed, it was kind of a balanced and act, and he kind of managed to pass that guy, and then just went and, you know, finds the space, launches his sprint, and wins again,

dominantly, you know, when he didn't even wait until the finish line to celebrate. It was already, like, five minutes, five meters before the finish line, but it's not over. Yeah, no, it was, yeah, it was actually surreal to watch, because it looked close and then he's celebrating,

but he must have known he had it. I mean, so third win of this tour, six stage stage of his career,

and he's only started three tour to Francis. That's shocking, and it didn't go to the tour between 2020 to 2023 and 2024. He was absent from this race, but yeah, you know, I've been waiting all day to ask you this question, and see the best springer in the world right now. Yeah, the best springer for sure, you know, especially in the last three stage, I mean, now yesterday you were in a virtual one, but whenever he gets a position, then he gets a

chance to sprint freely, he wins. His speed is just faster than everybody else, his top speed.

“And you know, winning three stages, that's not easy, man. It's going to, I think it's going to remain”

three stages. I mean, I wonder if he, if he was to Paris now, or not, because, I don't know, you know, Spencer, we should talk about that also, you know, we've, we've now done stage 12, today was stage 12, no? Yeah, yes. There are no more springs, stages for, for a bunch of

springs, no more. I've never, it's never seen anything like that. Yeah, I've never seen anything like that.

So we've had five so far, my lears, one, three, coys, one, one, variance, gold has one, one. So I mean, shout out to those, like, to those guys, because there's only two other spinners who have won a stage year, one of them not being Jasper Phillips. And so, like, it's super impressive to if one, really is one, three of the five, that's, that's amazing. I can't believe we're done, though, I wasn't, I didn't design without a lead out swing without a lead out swing, that's even more.

I know. And with the tired, tired old man, this is only lead out who seems, I mean, what's so even is doing, I'm now looking back through his, the zero was amazing. I forgot about the breakaways where he almost won a stage. And then remember he got third at Paris, Rubey, he did six, six, six that flanders like with cheese. Yeah, what a year from that guy. Wow.

they've made chicken salad out of chicken shit because this was not a great tour for sprinters,

they didn't have a great lead out. And they've won three stages three of the five. Have you ever seen a tour, though, where the final sprints stage is stage 12? Wow, we assume, right? I mean, one, I've, I've checked there's one stage where it's a little bit like 14, 17, could be, but by then, by stage 17, Spencer, there's no way. There's no more teams who can control it. It, yes, a reduced punch sprint, one by Mott Spades. And for example, that, that's, that's a possibility.

That is a possibility. Yeah. So I've studied this court, this stage for this exact reason. The other thing to think about, there's going to be so many desperate teams and riders that

“I just don't, I think it's going to be breakaway. But there is a 0.5 K, long 4%”

climb or right before the finish. So that's, that way, be ashamed to control the whole stage for your sprinter and they get dropped to K from the finish line. But, yeah, I mean, yeah, that, I think that's it, right? Because we're both at our house view that Paris is not a sprint stage. No, no, no, no, no way. No way. I mean, I heard you guys talk about maybe you might being a candidate in Paris. No, he's not a candidate at all. He, he might cannot win that stage.

No way. There's another cycling podcast that said, it's a myrlier day in Paris. No, it's not a myrlier day at all. Well, if, if I may defend anyone for thinking that, it's because they're looking at the profile and when you look at the profile, it look kind of looks like it's reasonable. But if you watch the final stage last year, it's so violent on those yeah, I mean, it was not there. Also, it was bad weather. But, you know, I mean, I just

have in the back of my mind, Spencer, and thinking about the stage in Paris, you know, that's one of the races that Bogachar lost last year. I know he's coming for it. It's going to be different, you know? It's going to be different. He's going to want the wind there. I know. He's going to go for that. Do you know the last, who's the last yellow jersey to win in Paris, do you know this off the top of your head? Better not he, no, probably. Well, I, yes,

exactly 1982, perhaps, or he won on the side of the show. He no, won twice. Once he won in a bunch print in a bunch print. What a badass. Yeah. And then he also, I also remember images of him and Europe suit him out, who was seconds. And it was actually, I think they just went both of them. I think you know, went and and suit him out, followed and both of them went to the finish. And he know one also in the sprint. Wow. Yeah. Shout out Bernardi, no, man. Oh,

good bye, Crater. Yeah. And you know what? I've been thinking about him. I rise back to the condo. He would have won the tour the year after he lost it to Le Mans. He had he race that year,

“you know, where you retired? I think he could have won in 1987. 87. Yeah. I mean, I remember,”

I don't pro in 87. That's the first year of retirement of Bernardi. No, yeah. I think he could have

won that tour. Get him out of retirement. Maybe next year. But another odd and an odds and end from this stage is that you know, this was the eighth fastest stage of all time to any stage. Okay. And you wouldn't even think about it, right? That shows you how fast some of these stages are. It's super fast. Super fast. What's your average speed in 49 point something? 49 point one, kilometers an hour. Quite fast. Yeah. And last sprint stage. I still can't believe that.

Or yeah. And likely the last sprint stage. Spencer, what do you think about the green jersey now? So there's, okay, sprint stages are over. You know, I should be talking about that after the after the break. Let's take a break. And then we'll talk about that. Yeah. So we'll be right back. Okay, Johan, we are back talking about the green jersey. So Matt's Petterson leaves the stage with a 40 point gap over banyam grmai and 46 points over. Yes, per Phillipson and 40 50 points over

“10 earlier. I think we can cross off Phillipson and Merlear. Germai then is, is the big fear.”

Not, but I try to can't rack up. I'm enough points on Mount stages because there are only 20 points per finish. Do you think this is over or does Germai have a chance? It's not over, but it would take something. I mean, whenever you're mised to take points now, Spencer, Petterson is getting, I mean, even if give my beats, Petterson in one of those intermediate

sprints, Petterson is going to be second or third, because you know, less and less riders are

He's not interested at all in the green jersey. And Phillipson, Phillipson will probably try. I think so.

“But I think there are a lot of sprints or races stages where actually Petterson can score at the finish”

and the other riders' moments. I think that's, and he is already 40 points in the lead. I mean, if there was a chance for somebody else to win the green jersey, barring, I mean, okay,

they can always be a bad luck or an illness or a crash or whatever. They should have been ahead

of Petterson now and not 40 points behind it. Yeah. Like, Germai took five points on Petterson today. Yeah. And this was the perfect stage for him. So I don't see it, actually. I think if Petterson finishes the race without a catastrophic crash, she probably wins. I don't know. Mathematics just gets hard. He's going to score, he's going to score more points. He might even still win a stage. Who knows? He can definitely win a stage. He's very, very strong. Very strong.

He could win just stages that are even in the ballpark form would be stage 21, stage 17. Yeah, tomorrow, perhaps. I don't think so. I don't think so. I don't think so. I don't think so. I don't think he's getting over. Overbolo does us with, I mean, there's going to be so many events even in the break. There's going to be someone who lives a little better than Petterson. Yeah. No, I don't see

“you moving to that tomorrow. Well, hold that thought. I'm going to get there. So is that art?”

I think that's it on stage 12, right? Yeah. I think so. Yeah. So let's do, let's take a little break for Ventantrivia and then we'll preview tomorrow's stage 13. So yesterday's question also Ventantrivia, if you answer the question, eventemracing.com/themove, you get a $5,000 credit toward a Ventantbike if your choice that could be in NS1. NS1's a road model. GS1 is the gravel model. And while you're there, you can shop using code. The move 10 to get 10% sent off any bike

on their website. So remember, Ventantracing.com/themove to enter the answer to the question. The yesterday's question was the best printer of all time. Mark Cavittish holds the all-time record for two different statements. How many stages did he went over the course of his career?

What do you think the answer is, Johan? It's 35. 35. I will say just in the trust tree here.

I for some reason I thought it was 36, but 35. I don't know. I felt like he was at 34. Remember was such a big deal when he got the 34? Yeah, that's when he equaled Eddie Marx's record. And then he didn't win one. And the next year after that, he got to 35. So I lose his meat somewhere between 34 and 36. But I knew it was more than 34. I don't know if I would have gotten that totally right. But you know what? We're not going to have to remember this record that long

because it's not going to stay for that long for me now. Wow. It's still a Spencer. He's up to 24 now.

“Well, he might be 25. I think it's 24. Hold on a second. It's still 10 stages. It's still”

10 stages. He doesn't know 24. He's the win 12 stages to beat the record. 12 stages. But I mean, if we're talking just real, if he really wanted to go for it, he could knock five of those off between now and Paris. I don't think so. How does he not win stage four? How many stages you predict? Well, when in the Stuart difference. Total. Yeah. I think he wins five. If I'm being realistic in five. Yeah. Yeah. If he won three already, I think he wins two more stages. Two more. Yeah. That's

probably realistic. But if he really wanted to get aggressive, which he should not, do, he could he could really press it. So 35 is the record. Also, it's harder. Because Mark Cavendish could win like near his forties. It's harder for a GC guy to do that. You know,

sprinters can get this elongated win window. Today's question. Today's the second day in a row

with the sprint finish and the last chance for many of the fastest men in the world to claim glory before the race ends. When was the green jersey first introduced to the tour? Do you know this one off the top of your head? No. No. Nobody did on set. Which means it's a good question. So if you know the answer to that question, go to ventameracet.com/themove and shop while you're there with the move 10 to get 10% off. But Johan, speaking of future stages, stage 13. Tomorrow,

longest stage of the tour, actually. 206 kilometers. Yeah. 205 point. Where are the real men?

And even some of the stages. I'm joking. It's a good thing. It's a good thing. It's definitely a good thing.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. First, you know, like big respect for the riders. I mean, they go so fast.

We want to see shorter stages in faster stages. So I'm all for that. Well, the real men, Johan, were at the Greer to Tyre. Because you won an old school race, holy smokes. There was stages at that. Yes. There was a transition stage. It was 255 kilometers long. And I had my film. I didn't need any more of that. So I'm happy that we're in the short stages. This is a super interesting stage. I got to say, I might be more excited for this than any other

stage of this race. Because it's a real, it's like a child drew this up. It is flat for 149 kilometers.

“We have a sprint point. 137 kilometers into the stage. Wow. How's that going to play out?”

Then you have a little climb. A 5k long climb, 5% coal, Dick. Wow. Then we have Belong, Dick. I believe it's the oldest climb into our history. I could be. It's either, it's either that one or there's it because sometimes people confuse with leghomba. Oh, yes. Well, that could also be, that could also be the case. But I don't know, actually. But anyways, it's, it's, you know, it's in all of us. It's the climbs or not super steep. But it's still. I mean,

it's hard enough that the sprinters can't make it. Finishes in Belfort, no?

Yeah. So it's 10, 9k long, 7%, then it descends down. It is 20 kilometers basically from the

top of the climb. Sorry, 20 kilometers and 30 kilometers. Oh, one second. One second, everybody. 176. It is. So 30 kilometers from the top of the climb under 20 kilometers from the bottom of the climb. So that's actually going to be really tricky because if there's still time to come back. Sprinters can't get over it. Finishes in Belfort. Beautiful part of the world. I actually like climb. I like riding in this area because of what you said. There's climbs that they have length, but they're not

overly steep. Yeah. It's just as a pleasant place to ride your bike. How do you think this is going to

“play out? I assume break away, but I would think break away. I think break away. And then I think a”

lot is also going to depend on the weather. You know, we know that the vorsch are very famous for rain.

It rains a very rainy lot. Yes. Yeah. I've seen some weather reports, potential rain. If it rains, I think the most interesting part of the whole stage is going to be the downhill of the Belondazaz. And also in the GC group, by the way, because that downhill is quite technical if I'm not mistaken, if I remember correctly. So, you know, it's 20, 30 kilometers to the finish, but you'll have to be careful there. But I think it's a break away stage.

And it's Peterson in the break away or not. It's just happy to let the points go up the road. I think Peterson's in the break away. Yeah. Okay. And then just I'm quoting Lance and all the other teams are okay with that or do people does your my go with them? That would be the logical thing, right? Yeah. Some sprinters are going to be there. Yeah. I mean, they have to be in the break away because if let it's at 137 kilometers to the sprint. Yeah. Yeah. And some sprinter will try to

“go in the break. You know? Yep. And you know, you know, I think we'll be in the break away tomorrow.”

Who? Taday Pugachar. Mathew, Mathew, on the pool. He will be in the break away, but well, and everyone's going to be fine with this because they're going to assume the sprinters can't get over that climb. But do you think Vanderpoke can get over that climb? I think so. Depends if you're spending the break away, of course. But I think the way I saw him ride the other day, yeah, I think he can be. I think he can, I mean, of course, not if if there's a real pure climber

in there, he's not going to be able to stay within. But if it's like a break away day with like, like big engines, I think one of the pool can make it. I mean, I was talking to someone in that in the Peloton that was chasing him the other day when he won the stage and they're like, yeah, a little track would have written smarter. We would have caught him. But I don't want to tell him. I was like, I think he just could have gone harder. I think he was holding back. Like, he could have

gone as hard as he needed to to hold off that Peloton. So is that your pick to end the stage, Mathew.

Okay, he's plus 1200. My pick is Richard Carapaz. Plus 650. This has got Carapaz written all over it.

So the odds are plus 650 Richard Carapaz. Tadipagacha are plus 1100. Matthew Vanderpool plus 1200. Tom Pinkock plus 1400. Matt's better than plus 600. Bit cock. He's a little banged up though. Yeah. But he stopped 10. No. Is he stopped 10? Oh, yeah. That's the problem. He's 10 isn't he? Yeah, no, no. Then he can't go in the break because the guys who are in six, seven, eights, they're going to, they're not going to let it go. Yeah. Well, you're probably asking,

how did you know these odds? How did you get these odds? How do you bet on this race? Well,

“that's why we partnered with next, next bets. So go to nxtbets.com/betoutcums and it will show you exactly”

where to bet. You can shop the best lines today. They're on draft games. So you just click through.

You can create an account, sign up, put some money down. Carapaz probably would be my pick because you're right. Tom Pickock. I don't know. Why why y'all aren't as he doing this? Why is he hanging on a 10th place at the expensive stages like tomorrow? I don't know. I don't know. It does make it. It makes it a really hard to win a stage. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, because tomorrow tomorrow would have been an ideal stage for him. If he's like, yes,

20 minutes down or 30 minutes down or something, you know. I mean, should we worry about Mattiah's bot check or can he not get over that climb? He's strong. He's very strong. You know what the funniest one would be is Luke Plap. He's just he's been sitting back all the old race. Do you do not rule this guy out? Do I rule this guy out? He's plus eight thousand. I had this lot today looking at him back there as like this guy is awaiting for something. There's some stage

that he has circled. Yeah. I don't think it's the big power, big power. I mean, I still, I'm going to go with Caripass just because of the climb and the descent. And he's the type of guy when he wants to get into a break, he can especially with the team behind him. He can make it. Yeah, although, you know, if you look at the profile of the stage, the break away is accessible to a lot of people. So it might be, it might be that it's a big group. And then usually what happens

that that's the risk. Let's say, let's say there's a group of 25 riders that goes, which we have seen many times, right? Then what will happen is that some riders in that group will want to anticipate before the balloon does us. And the break away breaks already like after a hundred k. And there's like four or five guys who go away. And then that's not easy for Caripass because everybody will have their eyes on Caripass. Yeah. And everyone's staring at Caripass and says, hey, you want to

close this down. And then he has Patterson doesn't give a shit. So he's on the front of the front

“group. He just wants to get to the sprint point. Yeah. Boy, this is a tricky stage, isn't it?”

It's a difficult one to also to manage as a, you know, as a breakaway rider. You know, it's yeah, you know, well, I think it will be a breakaway. Multi-founder pool has to say me, you know. I mean, if Caripass at least Caripass knows that if he gets to the balloon does us, then he is climbing abilities are good enough to make up a bit of time or to ride away from it from from from the breakaway. But you will have to

manage his efforts and try to hang on and not get dropped on the balloon does us. Why is forgot your second favorite? I don't know. I kind of imagined that we're going to be

a match of their day was for it. I kind of imagined they would go for it. Yeah, we never make sense.

If you're ridiculous, don't put it past them. You know, you never know. No, no. Plus,

“it's not even a mouth of finish. You know, you have to take risks in the downhill and no,”

and then makes no sense. No, no. I know. And they have two, two big important mountains. They just coming out back for that. Exactly. So what do we, why would we do that? I think that's little silly. I'm going to go Caripass. You're going to Vanderpool. But with the caveat of, this is going to be a tough break to manage for anyone that's in it, anything else you're on before we take off. No, I think we've covered most of the day and tomorrow's stage. All right. Well,

we will talk about who wins this unusual stage tomorrow and then predict stage 14 after that. But thanks for, thank you for joining us.