Billions in Tariff Refunds — Who Gets the Money?

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Today's number - 4200 and 8.

“That's how many miles FBI director Cash Patel travelled to watch the hockey final”

at the Winter Olympics last week. Mr Patel drew criticism after he was seen chugging beers in the locker room, but to be fair to him, the best thing after a long week of protecting pedophiles is an ice cold beer. Welcome to Prof. Markets.

I'm Ed Nelson. It is February 24th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices fell off the tariff on certainty, resurfaced, renewed AI jitters, also rattled investors, software companies were hit especially hard,

are for a viral post from satrini research re-agnited concerns about AI's impact on the economy, meanwhile Bitcoin continued to slide and gold and silver both rows. What else is happening?

“For a fleeting moment, it looks like the courts had put an end to Trump's tariffs.”

In a 6-3 ruling on Friday, the Supreme Court decided that Trump can't use emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs, stocks and treasury yields rose on the news. Trump then called the decision, quote, "radiculous and extraordinarily anti-American" and then he moved to Plan B. With an hours of the ruling, he announced a blanket 10% tariff on all imports,

and then he said he'd bump it up to 15% on Saturday. This time, he's leaning on section 122 of the trade act of 1974, which gives the president authority to restrict imports for up to 150 days. Starks gave back their gains on Monday as investors digested the wetplash. So many important questions remain.

What exactly has changed here, what will happen with tariff refunds, will consumers and small businesses get any relief.

“Lots of questions here to help us answer some of these.”

We have a panel of experts today. We've got Peter Harrell visiting scholar at the Institute of International Economic Law at Georgetown Law School, and also Ryan Peterson, CEO of Flexport. Peter, Ryan, thank you very much for joining us on Prof. Markets. Peter, we will start with you.

A lot has happened over the past three days. Give us your initial reactions to the Supreme Court's ruling and also Trump's reaction to the ruling. Yes, we got the Supreme Court decision on Friday. I don't think the Supreme Court decision really came as a surprise for those of us

who had listened to the Supreme Court hearing back in November. It seemed like a majority of the justices were skeptical of Trump using this 1970s era emergency powers law for his tariffs. So not really a surprise there. You could also tell the administration wasn't really surprised because, well, Trump

obviously denounced the Supreme Court with his characteristic bravado. The administration was also quite ready to go with their backup plans, as you alluded to, within hours of the Supreme Court ruling, Trump had signed a proclamation using this

other statute, also from the 1970s to impose a 10 percent tariff.

He said on Saturday that he would increase that to 15 percent, although as of Monday afternoon, he's not done so. So I do think we have to see if he, in fact, increases it to 15 percent, probably will, but we haven't actually seen that yet. That, that action that, what's called 122 action will keep this either 10 or 15 percent

tariff in place through late July. He can't use that statute for more than 150 days. And so the other thing we're seeing is the administration begin to spin the wheels on some still other tariff laws that could keep tariffs in place once the 122 action expires in late

The position that he, he puts the term so tariff in place, that's happened.

Then he says we're going to go to 15 percent, but that hasn't quite happened.

Maybe it will have happened by the time this has. Ryan, I was looking at your ex account. You actually predicted that he would bump it up to 15 percent before he said he was going to do that. You said that he's, he's got it at 10 percent and then he said, I predict that he's going

to move it up to 15 percent, you also made another prediction that we'll get to.

“Why did you say that and do you think it will still happen?”

Well, 15 percent is the maximum of what he can do. And so you can figure he has it in the back pocket, left himself a little cushion to add some more later. And I wasn't expecting him to pull the trigger as fast as he did. I thought he'd wait a week until in my prediction I said, I'll, you know, Canada is

going to do something to piss him off and then he's going to do it. But turned out America beat Canada and the goal in the hockey game. I thought that would be the funniest thing to happen. If Canada beat us and then he said, I hear some more tariffs for you, but I don't think that.

The other prediction you said, you said, you wrote, quote, 150 days from now, the task will be paused for 15 minutes and then immediately reinstated for another 150 days. And this goes back to what Peter was mentioning here that there is this 150 day time frame. And that's what's legal. You say he's just going to cancel him or new.

Take us through that. I'd like to hear Peter take on that and other things too. I'm not a lawyer. You know, there's nothing explicitly in the law that says he, it says he can't extend it beyond 150 without Congress as a provoked.

But if you let it expire and then put a new one in, surely it would get challenged. It might lose the case. But I, but he could do it. I don't know. What do you think, Peter?

“There's one question about how do I think the courts are going to interpret the law, which”

is not really the question of what Trump will do, right, because Trump's trying to do what? Trump's going to do. I actually feel pretty confident that if Trump tries the strategy of 150 days, expires for 15 minutes, another 150 days, the courts will throw that out.

Now, it might take them a couple of months to throw that out. So, Trump might get another couple of months of, you know, before the courts are enough. But I think the courts would throw that out. It's kind of an interesting thing here of light.

You know, you know, with that, even if you knew it was going to get thrown out, and you knew you'd lose the Supreme Court case on Friday, he still got quite a lot of leverage from putting it in. They got all kinds of countries to come and make a trade deal with him. Most of those countries are not going to undo the duties that they drop their tariff rates

or lower their barriers, and they're not going to, they're probably not going to just turn around right now and drop it. It's kind of interesting to think of, like, what are the rewards that Trump gets even from, effectively, what he did was break the law, it's interesting to think about. Well, what do you think this does mean for other countries, Peter, in terms of, I mean,

they came up with these sort of semi deals, they're more kind of spoken word agreements, and then everyone puts their tariffs in place. If you're a foreign government, if you're say Brazil or your China, you care whatever, do you react to this news? Do you decide, okay, I guess we're taking the tariffs down, or do you react to the 10% or

“the 15% like, what does this mean if you're a foreign government?”

Well, the first thing I would say, and I said this last year that in 2025, the biggest true

winners of Trump's trade war are the trade lawyers. I think it is going to be true in 2026, as well, the trade lawyers will be the one true class of winners. And so I think what you're seeing right now is the foreign governments are talking to a bunch of very expensive trade lawyers to try to understand what's going on and what they should

do to gain this out, look, I think the question, in some sense, is in Trump's court. In the following way, I think that if you are Europe or you are Japan or you are one of these other countries that has a trade deal, if it looks like Trump is going to keep your tariff rate at the rate that was agreed to or lower, right? If you'd agreed to a 15% rate, if it's going to be a 15% rate or lower, I think you

keep honoring the deal, right, because you don't want to piss Trump off, you might sanction you, you might, who knows what he's going to do, right? So I think you keep honoring him. He has these other levers, he can put Section 302, Section 301, he has other things he can go do.

Totally. So I think you stick to it. Now if what Trump does is use this as an opportunity to somehow hike rate. So like if you are at a deal, if you're the UK and you have a 10% rate in your deal, and he's now hiking that to 15, I think that becomes a little more complicated a question for

you.

But if Trump plans to keep the rates the same, I think most countries will basically continue

along. Ryan, you kind of have the most direct line of communication with the businesses that are dealing with this, because you're operating the logistics as they trade goods around the world, what a business is and companies doing about this, if anything. In the same way that maybe there's a question for foreign governments, do we react?

Well, it's a bit of a popping of champagne that's happening right now. People are expecting to get refunds. I expect to get refunds. A lot of the trade attorneys and advisory folks are a little bit hesitant to just say something. I don't know what I'm saying.

You're going to get a refund. It might take you a couple of months, but you're going to get a refund here, right?

“Yeah, these are my signs, that's why it's so obvious you just need to read the motion”

that the J file in the appellate court, and it's just like, "We will get refunds if we lose this case." You're like, "Okay, great. Now you're going to get refunds." Trump says they're going to fight it.

It's going to get litigated. Surely that's true, but they got to lose the case. It seems like a flam dog. How does that work? How does the refund process actually work?

Right. So there's a fair amount of uncertainty there.

But we do know is under the customs regs, you basically have a maximum of 494 days after

a customs entry is filed to do what's called a file a protest, and that's the maximum. It could actually be less, so you want to get these things filed sooner than that. And you're going to have to go back and file protests on all the entries that you did that had IEPA tariffs, and actually the first IEPA tariffs didn't come out on liberation day.

They came out on February 4th of last year with fentanyl tariffs on China, Mexico, and I think February 4th is the first. I forgot the exact timing of those three different things. So your clock is kind of like maximum of 494, but honestly, you're pushing it close to the edge, and you don't want to get past that date.

If you get past that date, it's too late to file a protest, and at that point, you actually have to file a lawsuit to undo the IEPA tariffs, and lawsuits are very expensive, protests are pretty cheap. Flexboard and others can just file a protest for you.

“So that's what we're doing with our customers right now is now that this is now a thing.”

They've been overturned, we've been ruled illegal, we're going through with all of our customer base and filing protests for all of their IEPA entries going back to February 4th of last year. And then we've also created a process on our website at tariffs.fluxwork.com at the top you see refund currently says refund calculator, because that's what it's said as a Friday.

Trying to get the team to update and just a refund claim your refund. But that's what that is. We're bringing people in.

First of all, calculating the dollar amount of how much is potentially owed, I think

likely owed, very high probability, and then getting you enrolled in a program where we'll go file those protests for you. What we don't know yet is is filing a protesty enough. If I file a protest and you acknowledge it as CBP, do you now send me a check, or is there some other mechanism, and we won't know that until it gets litigated and they lose, I

think. And then then customs will provide some clarity for what comes next. But for sure, we know you gotta go get your protests in if you've got any entries. And if you're only to take one thing away, if you're a business out there, it's filing a protest.

And if you want an easy way to do it, call me. And it sounds like you both strongly agree that refunds are coming. I was just saying, I mean, think about it this way. There's nothing magic about tariffs that make them different from any other tax, right? If President AOC had declared we're all paying 70% income taxes now.

And the court said no, there's no 70% income tax. Of course, we'd all be saying, you know, we got our money back, right? I would just would be obvious to everybody. And the US government actually, you know, it processes on the different agency.

But on the tax, you know, on the income tax, they do 120 million refunds a year, right?

It's not like the government doesn't do tax refunds. It's not like the tariffs are some magical thing. The government can just keep when they're illegal or like any other tax. So I do take the point, I very much agree with Ryan, the government can make this hard, right? They could, they could try to not issue refunds just as companies are filing protests.

They could try to require everybody to come in to sue, like they could make this administratively hard. But at the end of the day, whether the government goes an easy way or the hard way, the money is going to be ordered to be turned back over. Yes. And by the way, the government prepared itself.

So we, Blacksport has gotten over $700 million of the customs refunds for our customers in the last five years. It's a peer support. It's like a very normal thing. It's very posse, you know, this is a normal thing.

You file a protest, you get your money back. The government has been sending those as paper checks from the Treasury Department for the last five years. We're gonna get lost in the middle of the afternoon, the tax, my skin was in the nightmare. Well, about two months ago, maybe anticipation of Friday's ruling, they updated their

process to say, all refunds will now be down electronically through ACH.

“And if you want to, it was like auspicious.”

We're all looking at this going, huh, why are they suddenly getting their house in order and how they're going to process refunds in a more automated fashion. So, which does bring up this question of who's really in charge here.

about the refund idea because this is really the policy that Trump has hung his hat on.

It was all about tariffs. And so the idea that the Supreme Court is going to come in now and say, actually, you don't have the power, we're striking it down. We're not going to let it happen. This whole thing that you built your entire administration and campaign on is going to be

a failure. It's not going to work. We're going to send that all that money that you bragged about for a long time that you were very excited about. We're just going to send that all back.

And so I as an observer, look at that, and I think there is no way that this guy is going to let that happen.

I don't know how, but I just get this feeling that he's not going to let it happen.

I think there's a valid point, and we should clarify some things here, so the Supreme Court struck down the IEPA tariffs, which was one form of tariffs. Did not strike down those other two forms that he's done or section 301 and section 232 and now the new one section 1232 are other forms. And those have not been challenged.

In fact, those have been challenged in the past and held up. And so reasonable confidence there, but they're different. They don't. IEPA gave this sweeping blanket power, and he was really stretching in the Supreme Court really stretched too far.

He can't use it the way.

“But these other ones are more targeted section 301, you have to do it on a sector basis and”

it requires an investigation by the USTR, and there's 12 of those currently underway investigations. So expect more to come out in that regard, 232 is done on national security grounds, which is 232 is where you get your steel and aluminum tariffs, but also this one has the losing court, I think Peter, but there's not, they also used it to impose tariffs on furniture

and saying that that's a national security concern. I was feeling aluminum, you get, you're like, "All right, we need to make tanks or something, but furniture." We need on office chairs. I'm even desk chairs in the padded gun, right, you know?

There is another big question here, Peter. It sounds like the consensus is the refunds will happen based on the IEPA, and maybe Trump will just say, "Okay, you can have that money back, but we're going to figure out more tariffs going forward." But the other big question here, importers, companies, businesses, they're going to get

their money back, but there are someone else who paid a lot of the tariffs here, and that is the consumer on which as much as 60% of these tariffs costs were passed on through the numbers vary, but that is a number that has been cited. Our consumer is going to get their money back, Peter. I hate to say this, but the answer to that is probably not.

Here's where you really have to distinguish between the law of the tariffs and the economics of the tariffs. Under the law of the tariff, the tariff is paid by the import of record, which might be Home Depot directly, it might be a wholesaler, it might be a small business, but it's the entity that actually imported the good from abroad paying the tariff, and that

is who will under the law be able to get the tariff back, weather, Trump makes it easy for them or whether they have to sue through the courts for the next one to two years. It'll be the import of record, we get the money back. Now, in some cases, there might be a contractual arrangement between a wholesaler and one of its customers where the wholesaler is contractually agreed if I get my tariff back.

I have to pass on some of that to the retailer, but even if that is the case, when I went to Walmart and bought something that was 10% more expensive, I have no right to get that money back from Walmart. This is clearly going to be a political issue.

“I think we're already seeing people in Congress talk about it.”

I am sympathetic to the kind of moral argument here and to the political issue that is coming down the pipe, but in legal sense, there's no way for me having actually paid economic sense, but not in a legal sense, many of these tariffs to get my share of them back. I agree with that, and I would add to what you say by, yeah, consumers are probably getting nothing.

Not only they have no legal to have no leverage, but we're as the wholesale thing that Peter points out is quite interesting to dig into, which is I've already talked to a couple like one important I talked to yesterday.

He's getting it, if all things go well here, he's going to get a $12 million refund and

he owns his business. I mean, this guy is off the... I said I didn't have a link to him, so he's really lacking all he can probably buy for it. And don't do that, most of all he's going to be doing is going to be that guy.

But his concern, which I didn't really thought about before, is he knows Target and Walmart are going to call him.

“And they're going to be like, hey, where's my cut, man?”

You guys, you know, you raised prices on us, so I think that wholesale retailer relationship is going to be fraud, and there's going to be some fights there.

You're like, okay, I'll give us any money, then you don't get to sell in Walmart, actually.

So that's interesting. The other really nuance here is it goes to the importer of record, which is the one that Peter missed on that is actually in the United States. You can have a foreign company as a whole, as a quarter of record. Yeah, that's the one that's really going to anger Trump, because about what we've seen

in our data is not in our data, but in public records that we've analyzed is that the number of foreign importers of record has been usually about 9% of US trade is done. We're a foreign company serves as the importer, at least on ocean container trade, which is the easiest place to access public records, 9%, that between April of last year and when we

“ran this analysis, I think it was like in November, it had gone from 9% to 20%.”

Wow. And that's because there's a huge amount of terror fraud, where what was happening is foreign companies would switch, and they would import the goods. They would under declare the duties and not pay them properly. But I just saying, hey, these things are worth 100,000, not their worth 10, and that you just

reduce your duty rate by 90%.

And first off, those are the guys going to get the checks, not the Trump's going to be

wired money offshore directly in this thing. It's going to really drive them crazy. And the importer that used to import the goods, so like let's say I'm a brand, I'm buying goods in the US, or buying goods from overseas, traditionally I was the importer of record in order to avoid duties.

This is what was really going rampant, I mean 11% of all trade flipped to this. They would say, hey, the factories get import the goods for me. I'm not involved in the import transaction, I don't worry about that. They pretend like it's not their problem, and they don't know anything about what's happening. Well, they're getting no refund at all, because the money is just going to their factory.

So that's like an interesting nuance here that there was a lot of fraud happening and been watching closely, and I don't feel bad for them at all, because they were cheating,

so they shouldn't get a refund.

Right. Exactly. But it sounds like they probably will. I mean, what we've done here is if we've kind of deteriorated our relationships with a lot of other nations and made things more expensive for consumers, and now we're going to

take the money that will pass on to consumers, and we're going to set it back to a lot of foreign nations. To me, it's a total disaster, but we could probably go on for hours with this conversation. We should start to wrap it up here. Pizza just before we let you go.

Any predictions for how this will play out moving forward, who will be the winners, who will be the losers? How a little shake out. So I actually think that the hardest thing for Trump about losing his IEPA tariffs is not going to be the sort of 15% tariff rate on Japan or the 20% tariff rate on Vietnam.

“I think he's ultimately going to be able to recreate those tariffs under other authorities.”

What he's going to find frustrating is that IEPA was really the only law he could wake up on Tuesday and say, you know what, I want Greenland, and they're going to be 20% tariffs on Europe on Friday if I don't have Greenland. One of these other laws let him just kind of pull out the tariff sharpie and sign an executive order and impose tariffs.

He actually has to do fact find his right. Let's say you got to have either the US trade representative of the Commerce Department do fact finding, spend at least a couple of months to do investigations. You got to show there's like a trade problem or a national security problem with the good we're importing or the country we're importing it from.

So I think I'll be able to recreate this kind of 10, 15% tariff rate he likes, but he is really going to feel the bite of not being able to just wave his tariff sharpie around and threaten tariffs whenever he's mad at somebody. Ron, we'll give you the final word predictions on how this will all shake out. Well, I thought beer's earlier point of the trade attorneys are the ones who are really

going to benefit here. It's just a lot of complexity, you know, the one good thing about IEPA was like it was kind of simple to understand. There was a rate for, you know, you see the rate on the country and now it's these sector-based things come with all kinds of nuance that's really hard to unpack.

“Section 232 seal an aluminum as a really good example, where you have to know the dollar”

value of the seal an aluminum within the overall value of the product. It's like you have to break that out and now calculate in the duty as much harder and doing this on the line item level for every product you enter is you're going to get more and more complexity because yeah, it's not just a blanket thing on the country. It's like, oh, it's the sector investigation of this, it's just, you know, this category.

And often those, there's congressional, sorry, there's commerce department investigations are done like on a blanket basis saying on, on furniture. Well, furniture is not just a thing that has, it's lots of different HS codes and duty rates are dialed them into the HS code, the harmonized schedule code. So you now have to translate executive orders or other forms of regulation into the

So you need, you need tools, I'll find a plug again, I get to finish tariffs, that flex

work dot com.

“We built some nice pre-pools for you to help manage this, just boiling it by a minute.”

All right, Ryan Pizza and Pizza Harrow really appreciate your time. We'll have to do this again. Thanks so much. Our pleasure. Have a great day guys.

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We're back with Proftory Markets. So after all that, the tariffs have been called off. I can't say we didn't expect this, in fact, in our June 2nd episode, we explained why this would happen.

Here's what we said, "The law literally says, you know, this is only legal if it is in

a response to quote, an unusual and extraordinary threat to America." Trump said the threat was the trade deficit, but trade deficit is completely normal. That's not a threat. Indeed, that is what the court ruled. As we've discussed before, this all goes back to who has the power to do what, and when

it comes to issues of taxes, or as James Madison called it, the pockets of the people, that power lies with Congress, not the president, and tariffs are essentially attacks. So tariffs are now illegal. The obvious question is, now what will the tariffs just disappear? Will there be tariff refunds?

What will happen to all of these trade deals? Or as we prefer to call them concepts of plans, of trade deals, these are the trillion dollar questions on which thousands of businesses and workers depend.

And the answer is a pretty unsatisfying one, and that is, we don't really know.

We don't really know what will happen to those trade deals. We don't really know what will happen to the refunds, and we don't really know what will happen to the tariffs themselves. Most things are up in the air, which is probably why the markets are reacting the way they are, and that is, they're reacting very ambivalently.

Now, we can make some educated guesses based on what we do know.

“And I think the first thing that you should count on at this point is that the tariffs”

are still on, from immediately responded with those 10 percent tariffs, and then 15 percent tariffs, which are legal under that U.S. trade act of 1974. The only caveat is they only lost 150 days at which point they must be approved by Congress. So what we can expect is that the tariffs will remain on the table.

them extended in some way either through Congress or through some other trade law.

“So my expectation, and I think it's Peter and Ryan's expectation too, that tariffs will”

remain in one form or another for the foreseeable future. Now what does this mean for our deals with other nations? Well, as you know, I don't think we ever even reach a deal with any other nations. My definition of a deal is a written contract signed and ratified into law. We didn't really get any of that.

All we got was spoken frameworks. They were really heavy on the PR and really liked on the details.

So in that sense, I'm not sure much has changed here.

We still have no deals. We still have no certainty.

“And yes, we have still degraded our relationship with most of our allies around the world.”

That all remains the same. The biggest question is the tariff refund. Because if those $175 billion in tariff revenues were illegal, which they are, then businesses are now entitled to those refunds. And I'm not sure how it will work as Justice Cavanol wrote.

The refund process is likely to be quote a mess.

But here's what I can tell you, if those refunds do happen, then the people who actually

paid them that is the American consumer, they will not get their money back. As we've discussed before, it was Americans that paid the cost of tariffs through higher prices and according to the Yale budget lab of the costs as much as 63% was passed on to consumers, which is why your grocery bill exploded last year. But unlike importers that have direct receipts of their tariff payments, you on the other

hand don't, which means even though you paid the cost of tariffs, you will not be getting a refund. And so what this really boils down to is once again, a direct wealth transfer from regular Americans to large corporations, Trump has once again, I'm sorry to say it, screwed over the consumer.

And we can hash out the final details as much as we like, but big picture, that is what happened here. As I've said before, Trump's tariffs will go down as America's Brexit. Minimal upside, maximal downside, and an economic outcome that made regular Americans for the most part, poorer, that will be the legacy of tariffs.

And we are now watching that legacy unfold right before our very eyes. That's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss edited by Joel Passen and engineered by Benjamin Spencer, or research team is down to Lawn, is about a pencil Cristina Donahue and Mia Salvario, thank you for listening to Prophecy markets from

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