I'm also a little bit older and I'm the founder of Yaui.
A few years ago, the customer and the specialised object of the project are used.
My role is "Shoppy-Fi" because "Shoppy-Fi" is in comparison to the other platforms I tested, with the famous friends. I've been waiting for all the questions.
“All tools that are important for the development of the company are,”
for example, from "Laga" to "Laga" are found directly in the dashboard. Now, there are only a few options for "Shoppy-Fi". There are only 2,000 or 3,000 of them. Let's start with the comparison. The biggest advantage of "Shoppy-Fi" for me is that we don't need technical information for the company.
We all know about the background and the front end. And as soon as we start with "Shoppy-Fi-Fi-Fi", then we'll go to "Plattform", which means "Shoppy-Fi-Fi". It's simply the main reason. Our whole story is over-Shoppy-Fi. Now, let's start with "Shoppy-Fi-pump".
Hello, welcome to "The Bull Work Daily". I'm your host Tim Miller.
“I'm coming at you from the occupied capital of our nation.”
When past "Dupont Circle" this morning, four national guard troops, a tank. What that is for, what the threat is, it is unclear. It is just a little bit of fascism theater for you from the Trump regime. We have a great guest coming for you today. We're going to talk a little bit about politics.
Tomorrow, since I'm in DC, we're going to have one of my Bull Work colleagues. Am I bringing the mail bag back tomorrow? You know, it's August, have a little fun. You can email us [email protected]. A couple notes about the mail bag.
Fun questions, I like life advice questions. I like short questions are great. Very long notes about your feelings, about the world. Those are appreciated and we do our best to get to them, but they're probably not going to make the cut for the mail bag.
So if you do want to make it in, keep it tight. Have a little fun with it and I think we'll have fun tomorrow.
“I think that's important because we've got a lot of serious stuff that I want to cover”
as well and I want to get to it before we get to Dave, because I think Dave and I are really going to just sort of nerd out on politics, good news for the Democrats from the Nate Silver, the opening Nate Silver predictions for the House and Senate. We'll talk about that, talk about the Wisconsin race, but there were two stories yesterday on the immigration beat that really struck me and I didn't want to give them short
trif. So I just wanted to talk about them here up top.
The first story came out of Virginia, it was flagged by Congressman Don Bier's office.
Don Bier is just doing really an excellent job if I can really underrated Congressman. And Virginia, and they got this video of a woman having a gun pulled on her during a traffic stop by four masked Gestapo. Now, I'm going to play the video obviously for the audio folks. And I just paint a picture for you. The videos coming from her inside her car, as
I mentioned there were two and then three and then four all masked Ice agents that come out to the car. The video begins with a man pointing a gun straight in this woman's face out of the holster gun to the face. Let's watch.
You recorded. You on those redness over. You on those redness over. Stop playing. Stop playing. You are full of shit. All right. You're not funny. You're not funny. I want to rest you. Keep it up. I'm a legal city. I don't know. Oh my god. You were okay. For what? I want to try to run you over where I got recording. I got dash cam. I got dash cam. That's a line. You're fucking full of shit. This is horrifying. And what you see there is the woman saying, hey, I got you on camera. These lies you're trying to say about me that I tried to run you over or whatever. That's not going to work. And then these goons. These thugs go away. Like this should not be how things work in a free country. A person should not feel like they have to have their dash cam on and be video taping at all times. And the chance that agents of the state will come up to their car, draw their weapon and put their weapon right in the face of
a woman driver who is obviously no threat, no danger. They don't even end up detaining her totally sickening. Kind of some buyer said this and really seeing the video. My office has been in contact with the woman who recorded this video of an ice agent drawing a gun on her. She is a northern Virginia native and a mother while I'm relieved that she is safe. The habitual dishonesty and dangerous and unjustified escalation.
See in this video, Matt is always seen from ice for agents across the country. This conduct can
Thread a force against members of our community can't be tolerated.
and consequences, consequences, a keyword and that statement and that's going to be a big job for the
“Democrats if they take over. And then there's another horrifying story that I'm not sure how much I can add”
from an editorializing perspective except to reiterate something I've been talking about ever since the interview with Jonathan Blitz or before vacation, which is that we have internment camps in this country. And I don't think that people have really mentally accepted that, but we are holding people in horrific conditions illegally based on their race based on their country of origin. It is the Japanese internment camps over again. And when I read you the story, I don't
I assume you're going to be just as angered and horrified as I was. So this is for the nation.
I appreciate them publishing this. I'm just going to read excerpts from it because I think putting it in the detainee's words is better than me describing it. She writes this, my name is Maryam Thomas Sebe. I am a professor of psychology and statistics at Los Angeles Pierce College, or I was,
“until April 9th. Remember that day, people April 9th. When my life and my family's lives changed forever.”
On that day, I was teaching a class when my son texted me saying that my husband hadn't picked him up from school and wasn't answering his phone, which is very unlikely. I picked up my son from school, came frantically back home and called the police thinking that something horrible must have
happened to my husband. Even so it never occurred to me that he could have been detained by ice.
We are legal permanent residents with valid green cards. We don't have any criminal record, not even a traffic ticket. I was beyond shocked to realize that an online smear campaign without any merit or legal standing had convinced the government to try to rule revoke arguing cards overnight without due process or even telling us. The government decided to punish my husband for being the son of a woman who is a translator for the Iranian hostage takers in 1979 before he was even born.
The next day when I took my son to school, my car was surrounded by DHS cars and my son and I were detained. I watched my son who is in high school and has been a legal resident of California for 12 years behind cuffed. We were shipped to Texas overnight from Los Angeles in horrible conditions that I won't elaborate on in this letter. We have remained in Texas ever since. My son and I have spent over 120 days in the Dilly Immigration Processing Center away from my husband. We are asking
anyone with a conscience to help us and this nightmare. What else is this if not an internment camp? Since April, this woman and her husband and her son have all been held illegally in a camp. You heard from Jonathan but sir about how horrible the conditions are in these camps. She doesn't have a attorney to get her out. They did nothing. I knotted this to be okay
“if these are people that crossed the Rio Grande illegally. Down to one thing, that's what the”
Republicans are pitching. That's what they're acting like. They kidnapped three people based on their ancestry. Based on what country they're from. This is the fucking Japanese internment again. This is what happened. We started a war with Iran and we've kidnapped three Iranians and held them in camps in Texas. Professors. It is fucking sickening and everybody needs to know about it. So she's asking anyone with a conscience to help. I'm asking her out in the studio. So we'll put
a link to the nation article here and please share this on your social media, call your congressman, call your senator. It's fucking sickening what these people are doing. All right, we're going to get really dorky on politics next. So do stick around and get into the map. So pretty surprisingly, it was about Texas. Stick around. It's day black. For me, the best part about looking at old photos that it reminds you of the story is behind
the moments in the pictures. I was just doing the iPhone nostalgia deep dive looking for college pictures of myself. Luckily, it was like before I'm old enough. It was before the iPhone. So they're very few. But boy, did they tell a story? Well, to reflect on that another time, one way to ensure that you can have these memories for the different or colleague or family member can have these memories without having to manually scroll through the phone is to turn to our friends at
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memories in a way that feels ambient, additive, and fun. And it's easy to use. You just download the free or app or text phone straight to your frame with free unlimited storage. You can add as many photos and videos as you want. Those name number one by wire cutter. You can save now by visiting oraframes.com for limited time listeners can get $35 off select frames plus free shipping with code the bowlwork. That's AURA frames.com promo code of the bowlwork. Support the show by mentioning
us at checkout terms and conditions of life. All right. He is he sleep to private politics reporter at Semaphore. He writes it's Americana newsletter. The best in the biz. He also is the author of the
show that never ends the rise and fall of Prague rock. I don't know if we're going to do a lot of
“yes chatter on this podcast, but I like to point it out. It's Dave Wago. What's on there?”
How's it going? Good. Talk to you. It is good to be with you. Pulls wrong, hung, gone. And was constant last night. I guess it's a big news. Part of the reason why you're on. You're going to be on anyway. You're going to be on anyway. But I do just like to give credit where do. Okay. I have a text from you last week a week ago today as a matter of fact. And you said this, we're just, you know, we're just gossiping about the racist. And you said, hey, if there was no early voting in Wisconsin,
I'd bet it all on Crowley. So it wasn't a full no stradomist prediction. But you were reading the T-Leaves. You saw this coming when I think a lot of us were kind of resigned to a hung victory, explain what you think happened last night. What's constant and why you saw it coming? Yeah, in Republicans were giddy about a hung victory. They really ain't talking to them yesterday before the polls closed. We're prepping how they were going to run against Tong used Tyher to other
Democrats, etc. It didn't happen. So I was in Wisconsin. I've been back and forth for years and years. Large story of Wisconsin, you can read in Benwickler's book, is that it has been a swing state, Obama blew it out twice and then it's been competitive. But unfortunately for Democrats starting and because the Republicans swept in 2010, they have run the maps forever. And the entire story of Wisconsin Democrats is slowly gaining ground or not losing it in every election until
one day this year, you can win a trifecta and redraw the state maps. And so those are the stakes for high information in Wisconsin Democrats, where the people who are not all of them are primary voters or high information. But the people who voted every primary had in part of that story coming out for the state to bring court race coming out for any, et cetera, et cetera. And so for Francesca Hong enters this view this claim that she gets very lucky and she also runs a
good campaign. Hong is this this this left wing legislator for Madison. I repeat myself, Madison is the most left wing part of that state. It would be the most left wing part of many states.
“And she is a good progressive legislator who is part of protests. I think that I didn't”
need her at the time, but uncovering the act 10, Scott Walker protest, she was part of that on the ground. And she runs on data centers really does a good very clear. Yeah, she gets in. She says this is a state that that can do a lot better. This is a state that in the past, not the state, no walkie elected socialist mayors, just a Zora non-donny transformed politics in New York by saying, I'm a socialist and I can deliver for you. I'm going to do that for Wisconsin. I'm going to
raise taxes on the rich, expand social programs, bring about what you call permanent affordability, and then runs against data centers, which she tells me just a lot of, you're just from a lot of left wing candidates. They do a lot of grassroots work. They go to rural areas and people are hyped up about data centers. They start talking about them as I think that's a good normal politics. And so she's running a good campaign. Everyone else is really a bad one. There's a
glut of candidates. There's the lieutenant governor to Tony Evers who basically, her campaign manager,
“Sarah Rodriguez is getting the key figure of this whole story because he is bad at his job.”
So bad that she has to drop out of the race. Mandela Barnes, who is Evers is previously lieutenant governor, is running but has scar tissue from losing his Senate race in 2022, and also rubbers that which end up being reported that at least one person he hooked up with, which she didn't hook up with him. I'm not trying to minimize that, but there is in a delivery of circles chatter that something might come out about Mandela at some point. And so what Evers does,
as hones surges in his lieutenant governor collapses, he, while on an international trade trip, convinces David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive who had been running and by his own words, I talked to him and said he ran a bad campaign. Got no attention. He gets back in with Tony Evers endorsement and with all the labor unions that were endorsing other, let's say central left candidates. And he grinds it out and he wins. So you had a two and a half week
primary, basically, in many primary, where maybe 80,000 votes were already cast for other
Candidates who had dropped out out of what's going to be 800,000 votes.
Evers candidate. If you want to continue with Tony Evers is doing anger guy, I'm a competent executive of the Milwaukee County. I'm not as left wing as Francesca Hong. He survives a nitty scandal, where he was tied to a Twitter account that said to just racie kind of stupid guy things. Not with his name. It was an unmistakant. He also has kind of a weird story. It was like a group account and like one of the people that was on it is dead. It was a pretty weird story. Very weird story. He
doesn't defend it very well. So the left is feeling very good about its chances to nominate the
first socialist democratic socialist governor candidate in a swing state. It would be a story,
maybe in it 4,000 votes flip and we're going to work on that today. And I think in that moment, they get a little bit eubristic and put Francesca Hong out in front of me. Now, I'm a reporter. I love when candidates talk to media. I don't like it when they cut to media off. Hong, I've known for a long time. And she was very willing to talk to me. We got cut off a
“one interview and she called me back at 11 PM to finish it for 20 minutes. You should be talking”
people. However, the conversation turned to let's call them woke tweets she had sent. Between 2019 and 2021, it's about abolishing prison, abolishing police and I think this is the one that will live forever that we should careful Thanksgiving because it's a colonial solid egg.
And in her media interviews, that's my, I was on the phone with her in the in person. But on TV,
she's defending it and just doesn't come off very well. And one thing I've been figuring out today is she did not get the same progressive endorsements and strategists as some candidates. This was so what they were worried about is that Adilal Sayed is a very talented, brilliant, Rhodes scholar who can dazzle in an interview and explain anything he said before. He used a lot of, I wish I hadn't said that, but he could explain it. And she's not as nimble
at explaining herself. So did it all come down to her in Caitlin Collins and her giving a long window to answer when King Collins says, "Do you still want to cancel Thanksgiving?" I don't know.
“Didn't help though. And I think we can say this now Wednesday, August 12th, I'm going to admit”
something that I've not admitted on the podcast yet. Thanksgiving's just okay for me as well.
I don't know. There's a lot of people who complain about Thanksgiving and the travel and the family, you know, getting on their high horse about Thanksgiving the last couple weeks. But to be able to listen at the substance of that and just what you're saying. Choose not at that depth. I explain yourself. And another difference between her and Adilal Sayed is not just his talent as a candidate which he has. But like, I think about it looked like the school principal rule. Like if my kid
is at a school and we're getting a new principal and Adilal Sayed comes in, I'm like, this guy can handle this. Like he seems very competent. She at times felt very unsteady. You know, like there were some things that she obviously did well, but both had kind of her bio, the way she presented herself. I all of that. And with the stakes being so high, as you mentioned,
“with the redistricting and Wisconsin, I mean, they could have Texas Wisconsin, you know, had the”
Republicans had big victories there. And the legislature, the governor's race, it just the stakes are very high. And to me, you end up kind of with this coalition of like you said, strategic voters, she doesn't run up the vote as much in Madison as you would have thought. Some strategic voting with just like we saw in Michigan with Hayley Stevens, like the more non-college, particularly black voters, you know, not really, not really digging the cut of the jib of the DSI guys.
Yeah, also money matters. And they're written up in a lot spent on the primary before this period that we're probably gets back in a race with Theevers. It did help that Evers directed money to superpacks that were on the air for Crowley and on the air against Hong. What they were fueled by, though, was Republicans were spending money to help Hong. They had both a pop-up pack that was running pro-hong ads, and they had federal, we're probably in government association, ads that were,
the trains, parent, we're off and we're with us now, negative ads that are clearly positive. One of them was warning, oh, Francesca Hong opposes Trump's deportations. Okay, what's the Democratic primary voter? The most aggressive, yeah, probably fell into that. I should say, jumped onto that and said, where I talked to him the day he got back in, and you say, yeah, I was convinced by several things. One of them was, it looked like Republicans were going to pick
our nominee. And, and that was a good response, yeah. The other one, importantly, was that many people think God has abandoned us in 2026 in this country. But Crowley said that, I guess, this wife that prayed, seen a vision that there was a red bird. Yes, saying that he should run, and then the bird with the word came to them, and they saw a red bird, and that was also why
I got it.
obviously, and all time is now circled, because I think you said six years ago, we were looped.
I thought it was interesting and kind of effective for the online left to take clips of Crowley, who most people had not heard. And if you go to him, if you're a Milwaukee bird of him, he was a rice and star Milwaukee. But just to make him, make him look both kind of loopy, and like he was a corporate Democrat who was going to turn a whole state over to AI companies. Because he actually, his wife had told that story in his launch, his relaunched speech.
And I remember thinking, that's interesting, but I didn't clip out of that. Well, it's just a clip of it came famous. But what was the overall pitch there? It was really just don't let the establishment take down a horn with the fifth guy. And in Wisconsin, the establishment is Tony Evers, and this nice old man, who is the reason why the state is not Texas right now, as you were saying, who has been the ballwork against the ball, and a lot of Republicans want to do.
“Yeah, and this is, I think again, what I kind of thought the whole thing was kind of crazy,”
it's just like things and Wisconsin are going kind of fine. You know, I understand when you're going to try new things in certain places or Democrats have been losing, and where they feel like a establishment candidate has failed them, and we've seen this in some other races, which we should talk about. Americans are carrying over $2,000 in credit card debt. It rates north of 23%.
That's more than $200 billion a year in interest paid mostly by households who haven't
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and the big banks aren't really caring about fixing it. Even built the first home equity line
“of credit issued out of Visa card, so the same slide that you should cost you 23% now cost you a”
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Just a couple other stray thoughts I had. I just want to leave you at any other takeaways from this race in particular, then we'll go around the country. But a huge turnout, I mean, just huge enthusiasm with the Democrats kind of insane. You know, I see this little Trump with Trump when there is a firebrand candidate. It draws people out for and against the huge turnout in Wisconsin. Another polling this, maybe that's something to monitor, maybe not.
I say you kind of engaging in that discourse on social media and the other takeaways.
“I think the money part of this is it's talking to Democrats right just today. We do our best”
in the press to track this, but a lot of campaign spending is done so that you don't get the full picture told over and who's reading the stories about what was spent in a race. A month ago, we will learn that had money stayed on the sidelines. Hong still wins. But in the end, it's, in Michigan, it was fit for 51% of people who voted for somebody who was not a dual S.I.N. and luckily for him, some of that was for candidate dropped out already.
And it was constant to about 60% of Democrats voted for somebody who was not honk at three-hand dropped out already. Some people stuck it out for the two kind of stragglers' data in the race, but there was this worry about nominating Hong and the idea that the state that was so close, the Trump had won twice, was waiting for a progressive socialist champion, which is not very convincing. And again, I'm, I'm blading this with the money.
On an even playing field, as the socialist candidate, when, in Michigan, they win Wisconsin, possibly, but we keep finding this that there is not a secret socialist vote in rural America that is waiting for this kind of candidate. Now, are they waiting for populist candidates who are against data centers? Yes, they are. I thought William Lawrence in, in Michigan, in one of the mid-Bishigan primary for what was at least a slot concede. I talked to him
a bunch in that race. What he was able to do was just make it a pure populist campaign. The only one who would bring up what he tweeted in the past, I did, and I asked him about some wolf tweets he'd sent. It just wasn't part of the discourse. I do think there are people who used to vote for Democrats who can convince that this Democrat is a little bit different, but if you were posting too hard in 2020, then they say, I just like those liberals I hate
In New York.
Maybe for people who don't have the authority to talk about her race. I mean, she ends up winning,
“she is the backing of the Bernie crowd and kind of the D triple C, more moderate crowd,”
sort of running on this populist platform that doesn't kind of dabble into some of the, the more elements of the DSA that's worrying people. You want to do takes, but you don't want to just flatten out the whole country because the, the condition of the event, I would say though, and I'm just some of the levers of popularity. What is the Democratic establishment? What is established in me? Because this is something else that came up with Crowley Crowley. Crowley was,
and again, I asked him this and the Nuckeblastbone camera kind of viral. This is like a natural question. What does the establishment mean? He was getting annoyed saying, you're calling someone like
me grew up in Milwaukee first black, kind of executive, the establishment that's a slurred to me.
And that kind of landscape is just, you think the word establishments racist? No, it's that in his particular context, like the most segregated city in America, like the suburbs of Milwaukee being having been very Republican. What he did was interesting and transformative and he was annoyed when paying attention. But also, the Democratic establishment includes both Chuck Schumer and people in DC who are losers and lost and includes Tony Evers and Peggy Flanagan
and Tim Law and Democrats in states and cities who have won elections. And I do think the establishment as an epithet. The, the, the one you talk about with her back at Cook was especially dumb because, uh, yes, she, she's run three times. This is a third time and Rowan's one of Peter
because they think they can make her go away. She, when this time, lost your first primary as an
surgeon, won the second one. And this time it was a more progressive city councilman in the most liberal part of the district saying she's backed by the establishment. What does the establishment mean if both DEEEEEE and Bernie support you? Like, not that much. It was the answer. And just saying, my opponent is the establishment. There's a lot of room to color in inside there. It's, it's not clear to me that voters were just saying, I want the most anti-establishant person. They
want person who didn't, who's not a loser. And so that you've seen, uh, we may be able to talk by John Larson in Connecticut. You've seen Democrats are saying, he'd be in the ring. I might be old and I might have lost a Trump, but I can do it next time. You're seeing voters say, no, you've lost you want fighters. I'm putting a loop on what's happening then in the upper mid west are closing the loop rather than what's happening in the upper mid west. Um, it's interesting the way that ice
and kind of operation Metro surge like had an impact both in that Minnesota race that you mentioned, where Peggy Flanagan beats Angie Craig. Uh, Angie Craig, who I like a lot, Lesbian, I've had on the show really good member, affable. And it's like she voted for the Lake and Riley Act. And it's just, it seems like it was hard for her to get past that vote. She ends up losing, you know, a respectable loss, but a clear loss to Peggy Flanagan, the more progressive lieutenant governor. But there's also
some bleed into Wisconsin here, which is interesting where, because I remember seeing this when we went to Minnesota, many of the protesters that we met in talk to were from the excerpts, the suburbs excerpts of Minneapolis on the other side of the border in Wisconsin, which went for on. Yeah, they're talking about how a lot of ice agents had had gone there. And so if you look at the map of Wisconsin, like, yeah, Hong does well kind of in Dane and then also does well there in the
“Minnesota excerpts. And I think that's, it's just interesting, the impact of that both on these”
primaries, but then prospecting out to the general Wisconsin has been a swing state, you know, to the extent that that many of us suburbs continue to expand into Wisconsin, like that's in an additional voting block that could potentially help Democrats and in general elections there. It's unique what happened in Minneapolis. I ever, ever knows the the basic history, but in the Minnesota primary, Craig voted for the Lincoln Rally Act as did some other Democrats and swing
seats. The cursi was Kamala plus six. And in the context of Trump having won again, and she would have been that happened to pass the Biden border bill. That wasn't what was in front of him. You know, what was there, Democrats bit the bulletin voted for this. And then Republicans wanted to give Trump a win so they waited to send the bill to him and not Biden. So it was Trump who got to sign the Lake Rally Act, even worse if you're a Democrat. It wasn't the Biden
signed bill. It was you voted for a bill that Trump signed. And I'm not new to the idea there's cynicism of six, but Republicans do want it both ways. They want to pass their legislation and they want to hurt moderates and get them replaced by a progressive that they think can win. So it was the Lake Rally Act. It was also the resolution last year that that was drafted as an anti-anti-semitism resolution. Republicans added language praising the work of ICE because they
“had just been a shooting outside of a nice facility in Texas. I think that that was the one where I”
believe the the purps are in jail for 50 years now. And Republicans added this language. And if you're a Democrat, you you make this calculation. I can either vote against this and have an opponent say
You didn't condemn anti-semitism.
to everyone who voted for that bill in Democratic primary, or the resolution, is that they get destroyed by it. Maybe they either apologize for it, explain it, but it was you thanked ICE. That's
pretty simple. My opponent thanked ICE. Why would they thank ICE? I'm always sympathetic when people
are trying to explain something their position. But it's not that much of a sympathy and do saying thing to say, I was too scared to explain my actual position that I just voted for this poorly written political resolution. That hurt a lot too. And I've seen that hurt Roger Krishnamorthy and Illinois. I've seen I heard other candidates who thought to be safe. I'm going to cast this. Oh, no. It turned out there was a huge boom dog going to be finding issues
of the primary. Good issue for the left. It's set up by the right. Yeah. I mean, my takeaways are this is simple when I have a long standing policy that I'm never going to be in Congress. So, you know, my advice to Congress people is to not vote on any non-binding resolutions. Hard policy
“of no voting on non-bite. It's they're just tweets. All they are is tweets if you want to go back”
home to say, hey, I never vote on that stuff. People say, oh, I don't vote on that. Yeah.
The way you're probably act was a bad vote for these guys. And I think that they're trying to be strategic. They're trying to be savvy. And I think it's unfortunate and retrospect, not giving it to Trump on immigration was the right thing to do. And there was a lack of imagination about how bad the Trump immigration regime could be. I think for people to talk that there was going to be a middle grounder now. And Trump, on and there are over 2,000, 13. We're going to talk about
the biggest advantage of Shopify, for me, is that we don't need any technical questions for ourselves. We can all over the back end and the front end. And so we're going to talk about the online shop. If you're going to look for Shopify, then you're going to look for the platform that's actually crazy. They're simply the Gruntlager. And our gants' gift, Loift, über Shopify, start to get to a cost and losing test of Shopify.
Couple other big narratives. And then I want to get into kind of the map. You mentioned it in Connecticut, the Larson race. There's this kind of war on Jiren Talk or Seek within the Democratic Party, the Mills situation in Maine. Obviously a prime example of this. I pretty interesting race there in Connecticut because the guy that beats in Brown and the mayor
“does not fit the mold of some of these other kind of lefty DSA challengers. I think he was”
using the abundance program with your friend Ezreal. And he just ran basically saying, "I've got more energy to do the job. I'm maybe there's more to it than that. Why don't you just kind of give a rundown of that race?" And this kind of other model that is being promoted by people at the bench and other places where you've got these more working class challengers that have a more middle-the-road profile ideologically. Well, you just mentioned the bench and that's
that's a fairly new fight inside the party kind of late because we're almost done with the primaries. But the bench is a is a big daughter funded effort with good Democratic strategists to recruit and nominate candidates who are young and active and they think would be never good numbers of Congress but not necessarily the left wing. This is a threat. If you are DSA, if you are a Bernie, et cetera, and you want every primary winner to be progressive, that is a threat to you.
So you start David Sorrow just by looking at the level of starting to go after this. It didn't work very well. John Larson tried to make that an issue in his race but the issue of John Larson's race is that he was 78. He last year, early last year, when the nerves about Biden were very, very tense, is giving a floor speech to fairly empty house floor about his issues, social security, because he wanted to expand social security and freezes up several times.
And then his office says there was a medication reaction, it was an article seizure, but he's fine. A couple months later, Luke Browning gets into the race. He's the former Hartford grad scholar veteran, not left wing. And Larson's really annoyed by this because he thought Browning was going to support him. But Browning saw where things were moving. The Democrats said Democratic voters, I should say, say, yeah, the last time we said, let's wait, we believe
that this incumbent can pull this out. It led to a generational disaster. So, the Democrats were open to supporting someone else. So, Browning gets the endorsement of the local Democratic Party. He ever competes to the conventions. The Larson's strategy is basically just to hopefully there's enough votes for other candidates to split it. He ends up as a non-scandalized incumbent.
He's always scandal-beings-seizing up on the floor with a third of the votes, a third of
“this safe democratic seat vote for somebody else. I think he wins two towns in the whole city.”
His town, he's tired for it, and then one other town. And it was just, it was just a completely definitive rejection of old Democrats. And he had progressive endorsement. Jamie Raskin came out to help him, working family as part of his endorsement. It was just, it's not an ideological
Question in that race.
fighting Trump. And fighting Trump means many things. Yeah. But if you watch Larson, it's kind of classic northeast, northeast, liberal, and very Kennedy-esque speeches. Obviously, he's older now, so they land a little bit less hard. They used for drawing yourself as if you need me back in there. I have the seniority of that experience I can fight Trump. You know how that ends?
Just a democratic voter who say, "You lost, though." We would give you a molligan on the first one,
because Russia and all the stuff we're going to talk about. Yeah, no. He won twice. You guys lost again. You can't convince us that you can win. This is the thing I think that
“guys of the bench and a few other places are doing that smart. It's just that like, you have to”
give democratic voters another option. Where are your ideologies if you're in the center? If you're just kind of a traditional liberal, it's like you have to tell democratic voters like you recognize that the strategy has not worked. The last decade and you're offering some new either kind of angle on how to go out Trump or just kind of a new face or fresh face or new kind of background, new story. And I do think that where the establishment will fail in a lot
of these races, it was because the more moderate candidates weren't offering anything. And I think
this was a mistake. Now the one of those candidates were didn't work. I said this in the podcast, like Malorie's race where it's like it felt like she was offering that at the start and he was and then it ends up being kind of you're attacking the left. And like that's not going to work. If only the left is offering something new and you're attacking the left, like democratic voters
“were seeing are going to, I think, go to the people that are offering them a positive vision and”
another, you know, another way to kind of go out Trump. And so anyway, the the Connecticut race was an interesting microcosm of how that looks when it's not from the coming from the Bernie wing of the party. Yeah, and Malorie was another bench candidate and Bonan did not get stuck in that
same target of fighting about Hassan Piker and fight about Israel. That was much had had
grown and put out tweets years ago saying, "I hate Connecticut." People who might have been different. There were a bunch of issues that weren't happening. There was a very specific race. Yeah, I've talked about that a bunch of times. But you're right on the general idea is that and this is the, but the Malorie people's theory was, it was haily cannot actually win in this environment. People do not want the Schumer candidate to win the primary. It was basal, that was correct.
So as close as it got, that was correct. They just couldn't get people to vote for their
“candidate instead. Last example of this, and then I want to do a kind of big picture general”
action and some decent news for Democrats on that front is we have the Massachusetts race coming up. Malton also more of kind of a center candidate trying to make this generational change argument against marquee kind of without getting into like the nitty gritty of the back and forth, what's happening in that race. It felt like there was some momentum there from Malton, but that marquee is kind of pushed at back. What do you think is there? Is there a possibility still that
marquee gets clipped there or not? So there still is. And marquee is on the one hand more prominent to John Larson, but not that much more. The idea of marquee as a liberal hero is pretty recent. It was built for his 2020 campaign when he needed to polarize the race between him and Joe Kennedy III, the congressman. And that progressive movement has not shown up for marquee this time for the reason we're talking about. It's just he is 80. He was part of his big project in 2020. It was
the Green New Deal and that's that's kind of ashes the mouth of a lot of Democrats because every part of it they could pass the Trump administration got rid of. And he's not run a very focused campaign what he has done is betrayed Malton as an opportunist who has betrayed constituencies like trans people in order to in order to get ahead. That's not as compelling as you need me in the Senate to transform the economy into a green economy. And it's been a much more defensive
smaller campaign. This campaign manager from the 2020 race who was who was brilliant passed away in between races. I'm not insulting the new guy. It's just that he is trying to stitch together a I'm the true progressive and a Massachusetts. He was not to get too much in the degree by the Massachusetts. Vote the electorate is registered Democrats and non-narled independence and polling has showed Malton wins those guys. He loses with Democrats. That is his path. 50% by losing
Democrats and winning those voters who would not know theologically are just tired of old people. But I was Malton told me I would have said I would have, and I guess there's still what a week to do it, a couple weeks to do it. I would have become anti-icest strongest soldier out of him like chaining myself outside the ice detention facility and he has done that. He called for evolving ice early on, but not the idea itself. But I want 110% energy on that. And I think that's
Picking something like that is maybe a more compelling counter message for th...
center. So we'll be watching that one closely. I like that. So Nate Silver, you know, for all of the people has a little nitpicks about him on social media, he rubbs some people the wrong way, but he still seems to be like the gold standard the people go to for these prognostications, at least the person that people are the most familiar with. He dropped his house in Senate
“prognostications yesterday and it was I think better for the Democrats, particularly on the Senate”
than a lot of people expected. He offered a 57% win probability for the Democrats to take the Senate. I think the house is like 80% I think that the people of the sense for where things are going in house. In the specific races, his model at Texas is a flip. Tele Rico at the 63% chance of winning, which is, which was, I think, the big headline number. I'll say he is the favorite, Troy Jackson and Maine is the favorite, Sherrod Brown and Ohio is the favorite,
overwhelming favorites for the Democrats protecting the seats in North Carolina and Georgia, both 90% percent for Cooper and Osof and then he had the Republicans as the favorites, narrowly, and Iowa Alaska and a couple of those other stretch seats. I think that that is maybe just slightly more bullish for the Democrats than conventional wisdom. I mean, particularly Texas, I think that a lot of, you know, people are scared to do the person putting their reputation
out there that this is the time for blue Texas, longest running streak of any state of not having a statewide victory for the Democrats, but pretty note where the, I don't know what's your sense kind of talking to people on the ground for weather Democrats, like a really kind of feeling like the Senate is, could be happening for them. Well, one factor, both parties know about is that unlike 2018, where Democrats had more money for their individual candidates, more money for their
packs, if you remember, 2018, the end, Paul Ryan said, he had literally keep going to the
“Alson family to cut giant checks to fund a super pack. Republicans will have more money. I think”
Texas is viewing that context, just because is that donors do not want their money to go to Ken Paxton and yet he's trying to beast this out and be outspent heavily by Teleriko, be outspent on the air. I think also, not without reading the Nade's mind, every primary brothers had the same, Democratic primary, problems had the same strategy. We've, we've got our nominee, we're going to be finding the most woke, left wing things, the Democrat has said,
beat him up with that, we'll get a natural discourse going in the, in, in, in the mainstream media. And I saw this a tell-rich of several times, when I thought the media being flat, like there's stuff that he has answered the answer four or five times. Why did you say this about God
being on binary, et cetera? Because it's always new to somebody. And that didn't put him away.
The hope is that, that means that race is off the map now. The math in Texas is, it's the money, but it's also what has Trump done to consolidate the Latino vote he got in 2024. Maybe not that much. And so do the math, if Democrats go to their 2020 even numbers with Latino voters 2018, maybe better in Texas, if they turn out the black vote, which there's the discourse of whether teller you can do that, but I feel it that might be a little bit over it, overrated by activists,
you show up and yell at him. And then white suburbanites, he has been doing great with them. And so you can stitch together a 48% of the vote for Calarico, which is libato God. It's, I mean, the big part of it is getting back to that Latino vote, getting that, the Asian vote, it makes sense to me. Alaska seems more promising for Democrats, because it's cheaper. I'll tell what has one statewide, and that's getting the deep politics of Alaska, but it is not a
super rate-wing state. It is not having, you know, new people moving from the Midwest to rate-wing suburbs in Alaska. So I think that, that is a target is more promising.
Yeah, that was the Texas thing. I always loved that stat, which was that Ted Cruz won with the
“Transplants. Yeah, yeah. That's what, and that's better. I know it was narrow, unfortunately,”
but there is something to, a lot of these states. Every cycle, there's a couple hundred thousand more Texas Republicans, and they'd same thing in Florida, which is even more intense. I do think the, in all those states, though, it's fine. We're probably going to talk about their good recruiting for the cycle. They have avoided primaries. Sure. But they've got candidates who are, there's a little bit of Schumer energy in who they've recruited. They have Johnson and New,
the former Senator, who voted for the Iraq War, and there's been out of politics for a generation in New Hampshire, okay, better than a far-right guy, but not exciting. Who's, you know, older than his opponent. You have Michael Wattley and North Carolina, who they say is a good recruit because he'd been for primary. Sure. Against the popular governor, he isn't fairly found his footing in Texas, Paxon's kind of, kind of a mess. Yeah, I'll go even further than you.
I think that because, you know, the immediate acts like the Democrats don't know, so they agency in, like, we're 10 years into Trump, and nobody wants to do this anymore.
The Republican recruitment has been basically bad, the cycle. I naturally incident Iowa as a good
Strong candidate.
the establishment model of person that is not going to excite the Trump voter, the micro-odgers type,
“that is going to have all of Trump's baggage, but none of the positive. That's your Wattley”
and micro-odgers. And then in, in a several states say nominated coox, you know, and yesterday an nominated Michelle Tafoyas, sideline reporter in Minnesota, Mike Collins, Ken Paxton, for all of the, you know, kind of, renting of garments about L. C. Ed and, and what have it a main, it's, it's, it's a pretty mottly crew on the Republican side. For example, Johnson News advertising, now his name is the new new his brother's a popular governor, but he's running
is this sort of new Hampshire focus change agent. And you think, you were the senator, you were the senator a long time ago. Back when back when like the I Mac was a green apple color thing and people's days like you're not a change candidate. And so I was going to say that, and this is obvious, but bear's repeating, but every company's job is let's turn this into a choice between
“the crazy opponents and our sensible policies. And because it works for Biden's sort of in 2022,”
Republicans think they can do it, but is it working? Is the thing? Is, like I said, they came on the gate with Fall Rico saying, look how crazy this guy is. In Iowa, Ashley Henson just keeps pretending the Josh Zurich is more liberal than he is. For example, she said that he wants girls and boy sports down to a vote he voted against because we could just back just stuff. And he's actually distancing himself on part of that issue. Going on that path is low tricky because not
just because the, the, the particulars are the issue, but because how much does he want to go on
the air with it, et cetera, et cetera. But basically, they're just running against every Democrat.
Like this is the future, this is communism. They wanted Hong to win so they could say, see their winning everywhere. And what's the positive agenda? The positive agenda is we cut your taxes that were not ominous. Okay. I mean, I can see an election where it doesn't go very well for them. I don't want to grease that. That was silly. They should have tried to do something positive instead of just worrying about, because in most of this, it's other states. I mean,
the whole Mike Lawler campaign is just, yes, I'm running against the centrist, but Zoran exists. Okay. Tony, Tony, too, maybe you're doing better. Austin doesn't test of Shopify, Hong Kong. All right. Last thing, we just went through all the
Senate states. The number that we always talk about that Democrats need to pick up is four seats.
Get to 51. Some concern they might need five, though, because there is the John Fetterman wild card. And Fetterman did this weird thing yesterday where he talked about how Dave McCormack, the Davos Dave McCormack, the Republican Center for the state is his best friend and he would never go against him. And he's on Fox all the time, shitting on Democrats. And you know, you kind of wonder if he's the 51st Democrat, does he want to be the trouble maker that just annoys Democrats
all the time or does he want to do the thing that would most annoy them, which is flip and give the Senate back to their Republicans in exchange for something. I said, yes, Jan Social Media,
“I want to reiterate it here, because I believe this has incumbent on Chuck Schumer. If he's doing”
his job to nominate one Democratic senator to become John Fetterman's friend, somebody has to become his friend and nod when he complains about stuff, you know, commiserate about the Lib Tards, like whatever, like it takes. Okay, like he needs a friend that's a Democrat. Michael Bennett, you've got nothing to do. You tried to run for Governor and failed. That's my nominee, but I'm open to other other people. But like what's your even cover and all that? Like what do you think
is kind of the state apply there? With Fetterman, so looking down to the 2828 primary, one of his many interviews over the last couple weeks, he was asked if you could win the election for his health today, and he said, yeah, probably. He wouldn't. He would not win a primary in Pennsylvania if it was health today. He and the next cycle will need to start raising money. Who is going to give him money? It's not going to be almost any of the people who donated him
in 2022. A lot of buyers were more than Pennsylvania among Democrats. They did not nominate Conor Lamb. And so what is he looking at in 2028? Is it retirement? Is it being a Pundit? Is it winning a reelection as a Republican? Something that he lived through when our Inspector did a version of this and switched parties to win. He couldn't win because he's still going to be a Democrat who voted against every major Trump priority except the Iran War.
And the thing I think about his views is, what is the point of a Republican Senate in 2027-28?
If a Republicans hold the Senate, or if it's 50/50, he flips.
The point of the future agenda for Sam Alito and prior to Thomas to retire be replaced by
young conservatives. Correct. That is the point. There's nothing else that they really need to do. The house will be doing investigations. Is that important to him? I'm not in his life, as much as he's changed the way he talks about things, wooden John Fetterman's career in life suggests that he would want to cast of the vote for ensuring a alien canon. I don't think there is one. Now, but I agree with you generally,
that so much in the Fetterman story is just that Democrats are mean to him. He's looking
“pro-Israel. I think you really got radicalized on how he talks about progressives because they”
protested his home. They went to his house in Braddock with, and he stood on the roof with his Israeli flag. That pissed him off. He does need some temperature to tell him we are not all like this. The guys yelling you online are not at everybody, but this is a weakness of the way the left deals in Braddock, right? There are a lot of super angry people online and when pushed it's well,
online is real life. It is, though. When I go outside to the park and I see people
taking in all of nature and I see them on their phones. I see them on their phones. Everyone is online all the time. And so him being bullied all the time by leftist, clearly made him hate the left more than he ever has in his life, makes him sympathetic to Republicans. His member Ben Terris writes this weird magazine story about about Fetterman. And McCormick's out the gate saying they're only doing this because of my brave friend's bravery.
And he actually, he's great. We love him. If you're really unsympathetic to Fetterman, he's a kind of vintage, a little bit easily convinced by Republicans who are making fun of him as
“a vegetable five years ago, and I pretend he's a genius. But you're right. I think you're right.”
The Democrats need to work on. I just, I'm just skeptical that he would end his career in politics, electoral politics, making sure that Republicans have a super-incorporate suit majority. It won't wind most of what he ran on. I just think things things happen. I was okay. Okay. Well, I hope you're right about that. But in the meantime, just to be safe. I don't know. Ben Ray, Luhan. What are you doing? Okay. Take him to lunch.
All right. I mean, Joe Manchin's still hanging around me. Yeah. Take him on the yacht. Take him to fucking lunch. All right. Actually, I think for Manchin, we're mentioned Liz, you could get up the river to, I don't know. I want to get into at the very end of the the conversation river geography between West Virginia and Pittsburgh. But the point is, they'd have a lesson to talk about. Yeah. All right, Lago. I appreciate you doing this on little sleep.
Everybody goes sign up for your newsletter, Americana, over at Semaphore. I'll be talking to you again soon. We'll be talking to you again soon. All right. See you, Lago. Yeah. See you, man.
“Everybody else, we back here tomorrow. Remember Mailbag, send me some funny stuff.”
We'll see you all then, peace. The board daily is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Anzley Skipper and with video editing by Dante DeCico and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brad. That's the right way. See you soon, Lago. Our whole story is over. Now, let's start a new test of Shopify.com.
