JD Vance’s Warning to Israel, the Last Desperate Move of Israel-Firsters & Iran’s Growing Strength

if there's one thing combatants governments lie about, it's how many people have died.

“You could almost never get a straight answer.”

Everybody lies about it. They're lying about it now four and a half years in. We really have no idea how many Russians are Ukrainians or people from other countries have died in the Russia Ukraine war, and we definitely don't know with precision how many people have died in the war with Iran, but we thought to be interesting is to pull up the official

numbers, the extent they exist. We don't know, by the way, with total certainty how many Americans have died, the official numbers may be 16, is that true, we hope it's no more. Every death is a tragedy, but we just don't know. But there are official numbers, and so again, just as an exercise, something that might reveal

a deeper truth, we pulled up the numbers a minute ago. So here are the numbers, on the Iranian side, the official number is about 3600, 3,664, about that, Iranians dead, combatants and civilians, majority civilians, as it's true in every war, 3600. But that's not the biggest total of dead in a country in the last three months since this

war broke out in the Middle East, launched by the United States in Israel. The biggest number of dead is not in Iran, it's not in a Gulf state, it's in Lebanon, Lebanon. Yeah, over 4,000 Lebanese, almost all of them civilians, killed by Israel since Israel in the United States launched the war against Iran, think about that for a second.

Now again, we have no confidence in the precision of these numbers, but in the relative scale of the numbers, in other words, more killed in Lebanon than killed in Iran, sounds right.

If it's even close to right, it tells you something amazing.

And it tells you, which if you've been paying attention, something you already knew, which was that Israel could Joel's convinced threat and however they did it, got the U.S. government to fight this war, a regime change war, in Iran on its behalf with it as a partner, Israel in the United States, partnered in this war, different goals, but somehow a partnership. And then immediately use that war as a pretext to launch another war against a neighbor,

Lebanon, the only country in the Middle East with a Christian head of state, Christian head of the military, the only even semi-Christian country in the whole region, and kill a bunch of Christians and other people, more than the U.S. and Israel together, killed in Iran, think about that for a second, think about what that says about Israel's attitude not toward Lebanon or has Belar, has Bullar, or whatever calling it, the Iranian-backed

Shiite militia that they're supposedly at war with. Think about what that says about Israel's attitude toward us here in the United States. It's sponsor, the people paying for all of this. This would be like, you get a call from a friend, your closest friend, your only real friend who says, "I've got a home invasion in progress, MS-13's being down my door, they're

going to kill my family, come help." It's existential, and so you get in your car, you drive over there with armed, and he's right, you're going to be going to pitch to battle with the MS-13 home invaders, but while you're fighting his home invaders, he splits out the back door and shoots his next door neighbor in the head and steals his house.

“You would say to him, probably, if you had any self-respect, oh, what are you doing?”

You told me that I had to fight this battle on your behalf because we're such close friends

and that your existence, your future, depended on winning this battle and the second

I joined the battle that you convinced me to join, you split and started another battle to increase the size of your property. That's not a good friend. That's a friend who's taking advantage of your generosity, of your loyalty, of your help. That is in fact someone who's betrayed you, and that is roughly speaking, or maybe

a little more than roughly, that is pretty much exactly what Israel just did to the United States. So Israeli leaders somehow convinced control threat and whatever they did. They overwrote the advice of the American president's advisors and intelligence chiefs and convinced him that Iran was on the verge of building a nuclear weapon, despite the fact that

that same president told everybody, a little more than six months before, that that threat had been neutralized during the 12-day war in back in June, that they were somehow building a nuclear weapon again, despite having no nuclear facilities because we blew them up

“whatever, you remember the story, and we needed to neutralize that threat, the Iranian nuclear”

program was the justification for this regime change effort for killing the Iotola bombing

We had to do this, not simply for Israel's sake, because you would never go to war on behalf

of the foreign country.

“That would be effectively treason, but for our own sake, and for the sake of the world,”

we can't allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, and the delivery device, the intercontinental ballistic missile, ICBM, capable of blowing up Miami, and if we allow them, they will do just that because they're so crazy, killing is their reason for living. They hate us for our freedoms, it doesn't make any sense to the rational Western mind, but to the Shiites in Iran, yeah, they get up at the morning, determine to kill the

West, because we're the West, and on that ground, just on the basis of that, they've due to their entire lives to building weapons and mass destruction just so they can kill

us, and so we have to kill them first.

That's literally the case, not simply the Donald Trump made, but the American presence have been making for 40 years. It's crazy, you don't have to consider their perspective, their point of view, their motives. They don't have a perspective, a point of view, or motives.

What they have is blood thirst, they kill for its own sake, that's their religion, okay?

“That's what the Moas are about, killing Westerners, they hate us for our freedoms.”

So they sold that explanation, and then immediately revealed, they didn't believe it themselves, because they took our resources and their military, which we pay for, to go fight a separate war, and in the course of that war, it took like half the country and occupied it. And it just so happens that that country abuts its contiguous to Israel, it abuts northern Israel.

And it's definitely true that Hezbollah has sheld the galley or send drones over the galley and kill people in the galley, not thousands, not even closed, but they're very hostile to Israel. They want to kill Israelis. There's no doubt about that.

There's no reason to lie about that. That's true.

“Hezbollah is hostile to Israel, but it's also true that Israel would like to steal the land”

of a sovereign nation called Lebanon, which is not run by Hezbollah. That's an in effect occupied by Hezbollah and has been for a long time. That's a big problem for Lebanon, no reason to lie about that either.

It hasn't made Lebanon better to beautiful country with amazing people, but it's become

a, will literally a battleground in a larger contest for regional control between Iran and Israel. So that is a fact and if you're trying as an American president or vice president or Chairman of the joint chiefs, or anybody in an official capacity in the United States who's trying to wrap up this war in a way that you can plausibly claim victory at the end, or at least

with less humiliation, that's extremely annoying. Why wouldn't it be? You just told your people you're doing it for one reason and you're a partner, admitted by his actions, if not words, that he's got a completely separate agenda, which is not good for you, results in the intentional deaths of Christians, the bombing of churches, the emptying

of Christian villages, ancient Christian villages, et cetera, et cetera. So the whole thing's repugnant, and so so as these really style of war tends to be wildly disproportionate. So they kill people in the galley and northern Israel, you kill a thousand of them. And I'll let you kill a thousand per one, but then you brag about it, and you say as

a cabinet minister in the Israeli government did just the other day hours ago, yeah, those are the rules, kill one of ours, we kill a thousand of yours. That's not how civilized people conduct warfare, because it's so asymmetrical that it's not justifiable, morally, it is by definition punishing the innocent, and it's also something that only truly discredited, widely recognized, evil regimes have ever done in public.

Have ever said that? There was a certain European country 80 years ago that did that to partisans, say, you need to turn Europe, you kill one of our soldiers, we'll run up a hundred, it was a hundred one, by the way, we're fifty to one, but here you have our partner, our client state, saying it's a thousand to one, it's all bad, it's bad in absolute terms, it's not justifying

it, that's a question of behavior, it's also bad for the United States, why would we want to be tethered to a lunacy like that, why would we want to be paying for lunacy like that brutality like that, totally unjustifiable? And of course, undergirding all of it is the belief that all human life is not equal,

a matter of race, our people, our bloodline is more valuable than yours, by the way, Israel's not the only country that's reached that conclusion, lots of countries have entered a state of insanity and concluded that, famously the Germans, but many others, it's like this is a human problem that people tend to have, I'm fully human, you're not like, they're

not the first country reached that conclusion, but that conclusion itself is the enemy

“of civilization, that's exactly what we reject, that's why we're civilized, and people”

who believe that are by definition, uncivilized, so any all of this happens, meanwhile, the United States realizes its president, its leadership that there's no military solution to this, we can't kill our way out of the war with Iran, can't despite the awesome and much advertised power of our military, we can't actually force Iran to open the state of war, or we would have already, and by the way, no one on the other side of this debate

has ever proposed exactly how you would do that, not no military geniuses like Mark Thesen, nobody had, because there's no, there's no solution, but there is an inevitable outcome if you keep going and that's poverty, that's economic collapse, and the president said that, wow, last week, if we keep going, we run out of oil, we don't think we should run out of oil, I don't know if that's true, probably not, we do have massive

“energy reserves in the United States, but this stuff is priced on the international markets,”

and at some point sooner rather than later, energy, gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, jet fuel, the things that make the society work will become too expensive for most people to buy, at which point things fall apart, you get hyperinflation and then all the downstream effects of that, like chaos and violence. So, we can't, we're boxed in, made about decision, got to get out, yes, getting out, looks

a lot like defeat, because strictly speaking, it is defeat, meaning we're pulling back, we've reached none of the goals that we publicly articulated, we're trying to reach, and that's all very embarrassing, we've reached the limit of American power, yes, that's true, it's sad, we can certainly readjust, doesn't mean our country's gone, doesn't mean we're in a great depression, doesn't mean we have a civil war, like the lots of things

we're avoiding here, and that's good, but it's definitely a step down, and it's kind of impossible to save face entirely, but, you know, it's the best of a series of really bad

options, so the president, who got us into this mess in the first place and shame on him,

did make a rational, and in some ways, though depressing, probably the only bright decision, a noble decision actually, just take his lumps and get out, because if we don't do that, what exactly are we going to do? And again, no one's answered that question, because there's no answer other than just continue to fruitlessly suffer at an accelerating pace until everything,

“we truly fall apart, so you have to get out, so we're going to get out, so he announces we're”

getting out, well, from the Israeli perspective, there's no worse outcome, and just to show a little grace to Israel, this is one of those rare moments where the hyperbole actually does match the reality, so Israel's been complaining about, whining about, inflating the severity of existential threats for, you know, generations, it's an existential threat, that was not. But this gets about as close to an existential threat to Israel as anything in the past 50 years, for sure, so they go into this

with the aim of disabling Iran, breaking the country apart into warring factions, taking it off the tables at Global Player, and that was their goal, they said it, and the opposite happened, Ron became stronger, Ron became globally recognized as a true player in international energy and commodity markets, but also as the country that stood up to the two most ferocious, maybe least steepulous militaries in the world, this is the Global View, true or not, and didn't crumble,

the killed ahead of state, an entire top echelon, running the state, and new people, nobody had ever heard of, seamlessly moved into those roles and just kept going. So like the message to

the rest of the world is, the subtle outlaw terror states stood up to the most powerful coalition

in the world and survived, that in itself is a massive win, and it increases Iran's prestige, and its operational power going forward, there's no way around that. Not many people would have predicted that, not many people would have wanted that, but we're not in charge of history, and that's exactly what happened. From the perspective of the rest of us, that's sad, it's a massive downgrade in American power, and there will be consequences for sure, particularly in New

Stasia, but you're just going to have to live with those and deal with them, and it may be in some ways good for the United States to recognize the limits of military power, because there are limits to military power, period, infuse nuclear weapons there are limits, and those limits include your own assured death. So like let's stop talking ourselves into lunacy here, military's great,

there's a lot of theft building aircraft carriers is obviously insane as any person could have told you

“there's obviously a lot to learn from the waste in $1.5 trillion in Pentagon funding,”

but the military is still impressive and has lots of great people, et cetera et cetera et cetera, but no matter how great your military is, there are things you can't achieve with it. That's just

a fact, it's always been a fact why people understand that there's no leader in the world with any

wisdom or foresight who doesn't understand that, and now perhaps our leaders will understand it, and that's not bad. But from Israel's perspective it's very hard to see an upside in this, because Iran, which it's fair to say, no matter how much you dislike Israel, you'd have to admit, Iran has a real grudge against Israel, Iran has been funding, and it's a little more complicated than this, but they have effectively been funding some of Israel's most dangerous enemies. That's

just true. And now they're more powerful than ever, and the Gulf, the Six Gulf states, which are

“inherently powerful because they have all this energy wealth. They're not more closely allied with”

you or the United States, they will some of them inevitably will in real terms, if not openly, become closer to Iran, because they have no choice, because Iran is now a partner with Oman and controlling the ability of their commodities to get out of the Persian Gulf. So this is all obvious, but think about it from the Israeli perspective, this is like a true nightmare scenario, but it's also a familiar scenario to anyone over 11 years old, and that's a scenario in which

all of your dreams whip around and become the opposite of what you thought they were going to be. You have no ability as a human being to precisely predict the future. Sometimes you can be kind to write, often you're 180 degrees wrong. The opposite of what you thought was going to happen happened. And again, anyone who's not a child has lived this and wise people write it down on a note and post it on the fridge, just to remind themselves every single day, I am not God, it is entirely

possible that I'll go into some complex, high-stakes project, and at the end, the opposite will happen. So I should slow down a little bit and be ever aware of the limitations of my own predictive

“abilities. That's how wise people approach life, people like Benjamin Netanyahu, by contrast,”

and a lot of politicians, by the way, get up on stage and tell you, if we do this, this is exactly

what's going to happen. And people like that should never hold power because they're dumb,

and they're dumb and are recognizable, they don't recognize their own limits. They don't know what they're not capable of doing. And the only way they ever learn that is by leading others into disaster and death. That's like the oldest lesson in human history. And we're all learning it once again. So those, I think, are the relative perspectives. The United States realized we've got to get out. That's obviously embarrassing. It's bad, but it could be

way worse. So we should be grateful they're getting out now. Israel realizes wholly smokes we miscalculated or we were betrayed because there's really no self-awareness at all at any level

of the Israeli government. It's always someone else who's fault. It's always your fault. You just

hate us because you've always hated us. Okay, now. But in any case, whatever the cause of it, these really understand, wow, wow, we're up against it. We thought we were going to be in charge of the region. We'll be the regional hedge bonds. And now we realize our main enemy is more powerful than they ever were. And by the way, our only ally on the planet is telling us that we have to stop the war that we started under the cover of the war, we convinced them to start. Okay. So it's tough.

And you can see the total misalignment between the United States and Israel, these purported partners in this doomed venture. But they're not really partners. One country is many times the size of the other country, both in population and territory and in resources are not even closely comparable. This is the elephant and the flee. And moreover, the little country is wholly totally dependent on the big country for everything, for everything, for its economy, for its intelligence

and more than anything for maintaining its territorial ambitions and providing for its defense. But the little country refuses to recognize that, both out of arrogance and because it's in a state of total hysteria and can't think straight. And so that's the rub right there. The little country somehow has control over the future of the big country. But the big country is solely responsible for the little country being able to do anything at all. And only one side understands the

dynamic and that's the big country. So the vice president of the United States last Thursday

months during the course of this war? Was it Israel or the United States? No, the United States

“spent more money defending Israel than Israel spent defending itself. Now, whining about it,”

not attacking Israel, but just like, hey, for a little perspective here, your cities are still largely intact because American taxpayers paid to defend them, by the way, to our own detriment. We now lack the defensive capacity to send American troops other places in the world if we need to do, because we expanded it defending you in a word that you got us into. So the vice president said that, and then he said this in a now famous clip, which is worth

rewatching. Here it is. What I will say, and this does bother me, is that you've seen people within BB's cabinet who have come out and attacked the deal, and in some ways very personally attacked the president of the United States. And I guess my message to them would be twofold. Number one, Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time. And he happens to be the head of state of the world's

superpower. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only

powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world. Yeah, you think. I mean, that's the most

obvious advice, and it is advice. It's criticism, but it's not an attack. It's an acknowledgement of reality. And it's a it's a call to change behavior. It's hey, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, you know, you've got some ideas that are totally wrong. It would be like you could argue with one of your kids who's in college and the kids like, I don't care what you think, man. And you're like, whoa,

“son, I'm paying the tuition. Okay, so if you want to pay your own tuition, you can do whatever you want,”

but as long as I'm paying for it, you got to hear me out. That's a conversation probably every parent has at some point. It's not an expression of hate toward the child. It's a reminder to the child that you were not independent. You're not an adult. How do we know you're not an adult because you're not living independently. That's why. And that is the measure. If you can take care of your own stuff, then I'll respect you as an equal or appear anyway. But if I'm paying for everything,

you got to hear me out. My interests and my feelings also matter. In fact, they matter quite a bit because I'm paying for it all. And that's pretty much what JD Vance said is. You'll not I hate you, but hey, wake up, guys. Know you're all spun up into a state, but like, here's some reality for you. And then he went on to say, as noted, that we paid for more of your defense than you did. So you would think, and JD Vance doesn't hate Israel at all. In fact, probably a lot of people in the

right think he's way too comfortable with Israel, but whatever is not an attack. At all, and it's true,

most important. Whatever it's intent, whatever the motive was, is factually true. There's no arguing

that. What's the untrue part of that? There isn't one. So he says this. So you would think in a country that's thinking clearly with wise people who envision a future for themselves. So I'm going to say, you know what? They're right. Like everybody hates us. Literally, our Prime Minister's been indicted for war crimes in civilized countries. The whole world is against us. This is our patron. It's the only country that's with us. Maybe we shouldn't give them the finger in public. Maybe we shouldn't

“blow up a piece deal that's essential to their survival as an economic power. Right? Do you think?”

And by the way, don't let for us. It's America. No, that's how what they said. Oh, they said the opposite.

The attack J.D. Vance is an anti-Semite. Oh, really now. Anti-Semite. Okay. Here's what a,

there's not French characters. It's like a very well known and highly regarded. He's really defense analyst. Ben Sabti. He works at a security think tank. Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. Here's what he tweeted on Sunday, if he was later. Quote, "Maybe USA needs another Pearl Harbor or 9/11 to remember who is the enemy and who is the friend?" Maybe American needs another 9/11. Oh. Now, keep in mind, it was this same leadership establishment. In fact,

it was Benjamin Netanyahu himself 25 years ago. After 9/11, the event 9/11, the biggest, most damaging terror attack in American history, who said this is a good thing. Because it reminds America that we're on the same side, we're fighting against 19 Arabs with box cutters or whoever. Supposedly did that. So this is a sentiment. It's the ugliest possible sentiment. It's rooting for your supposed friend to suffer. It's rooting for civilian terror deaths in your allies nation. That's

you would never say in public, ever, even if you had a dark thought like that, you would never

“say it. You couldn't say something like that. Maybe you did another 9/11. It's like, you know,”

saying to your spouse, maybe you, you know, you don't understand me. Maybe if you got stage 4 pancreatic cancer, you would understand how much I'm suffering. You don't wish stage 4 pancreatic cancer on a friend. You wish not an enemy. And of course, it's also a threat. Let's be real. That's a threat. Maybe you need another 9/11. Another 9/11. Okay, now. Says these really security official. All right. Does he work for a moving company? Anyway, you see the point like, what the hell

are you doing? So you would think, by the way, if you're an American who supported Israel and there are good people in the United States who sincerely support Israel, Jews and Christians, you would look at this and you'd be like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. This is not good.

First of all, as an American, I'm outraged. Anyone would talk to us that way or treat us that way

or make a threat against it. Maybe you're under 9/11. But you would also say, if you cared about Israel, like, man, that's self-defeating. That kind of thinking, those kind of threats. Like,

“that's crazy talk. Because there's no way you can win. Okay. So pull back a little bit. That's what”

you think people would say. But that's not what they said. That's not what Israel's agents in the United States were saying. No, they doubled down on it. And I'm going to play this clip a hate almost to do it because, you know, of all the 535 members of Congress house in Senate, there are a few, just a few. I mean, most of me is disagree. But there are a couple who were just like so repulsive that you think this person is trying to turn me into a hater. So I'm just going to

eververt my gaze. I don't even want anything to do with this person. And the following member of Congress from the state of Florida is definitely in that category. But just for context, this is Randy Fine. He's a new member. This is the guy who tweeted laughing emojis at the picture of a murdered Arab child possibly a Christian child in Gaza. So this is someone who, you know, shouldn't be serving in the United States Congress whose presence really in this country is humiliating

to all of us because Americans are better than that overwhelmingly, most Americans are not going to

laugh at a photograph of a dead child. But he did. Anyway, here's what Randy Fine said.

This is a sitting member of Congress in response to the Vice President's accurate, justified, totally reasonable level headed assessment of the dynamic between the US and Israel. Watch. J.D. Vance from the podium yesterday, chastising critics of the steel coming from Israel. That was pretty unprecedented by J.D. Vance. I'm surprised he went that far. Yeah, look, I thought J.D.'s comments yesterday were absolutely inappropriate and frankly

disgusting. The state of Israel was not created by the United States. It is not funded by the United States except in some small way. It was created on the blood and sweat and tears of the Jewish people arising out of the Holocaust. The United States didn't support Israel during its formation. In fact, there were times when it put arms and bargos in place. And J.D. Vance would be wise

“to go back and learn his history. I think his comments today were completely out of line.”

Learn his history. It's almost unbelievable. The Vice President and this could vote, there's not a defensive J.D. Vance. It's any politician who said that. Joe Biden said that. Any normal person with the same response like, okay, maybe I don't like Joe Biden or whatever, but that's just true. It's just, it's just true. What is untrue about it? Well, Randy Fine didn't tell us what was untrue about it. Now, they're the host. You said

up the question, it was unprecedented. Unfortunately, that's true. It was unprecedented for any American public official from the White House or affiliated with the White House to say anything that was even mild chastisement of Israel. To deviate from the script, so familiar to Americans, we love you. You're special. The rules don't apply to you. Whatever you want to do, we will back you. In fact, our whole country depends on you. We didn't create you. You created us.

We're in the famous words of Nikki Haley. America needs Israel more than Israel needs America. This kind of stuff, this nonsense talk has been going on for decades, really, because no one has ever stood up. It's, what are you talking about, Nikki Haley? How in the world with the United States need Israel more than Israel needs United States? It's not attack on Israel, but like, what are you talking about? Shut up, not see? All right, now. But because of decisions,

forced and inspired by Israel's defenders in the United States, we can't avoid where we are now. Which is out of place where lots of Americans who are agnostic on the question or pro-Israel or just didn't think about it didn't care are waking up to the reality. This is really bad for us.

holocaust. They built it because of the holocaust. Well, I mean, okay.

“With that evening debate about how Israel was built under what circumstances who did it,”

sort of were complicated in that. That shows control by Britain. And a lot of British diplomats and soldiers and officers had to be killed in terror attacks before they finally abandoned it to the settlers. But whatever, leaving that aside to invoke the holocaust with no mention of the fact that tens of hundreds of thousands of American men died fighting the Nazi regime, as they did not abet the holocaust, as they fought the Nazis,

and hundreds of thousands of Americans died. And many more were wounded and their lives destroyed fighting the Nazis. So you would think if you're an American member of Congress, you would preface every reference to the holocaust with, you know, a lot of Americans pay the

ultimate sacrifice fighting this stuff. But no, he would never say that because it would absolve

America of the unearned guilt from those murders 80 years ago. So of course, the point of invoking the holocaust is to say, hey, you've got a lot to feel guilty for shut up. Of course, United States has nothing to feel guilty for zero when it comes to its relationship with Israel. United States has done a lot more for Israel than Israel has done for the United States. It's just a fact. It's a math question. Show me numbers that contradict that you can't because

they don't exist. They don't even, nothing in that realm exists. But here you have a man with no moral authority to speak on any topic, lecturing the U.S. government in his own party, he's a Republican, this is a Republican vice president, a Republican administration. But these

“questions for Andy find super seed party ID, because the most important thing in Randy finds life”

is the fortunes of the Israeli government. None of Israel itself. By the way, if you cared about Israel, you would not take Randy finds position. You would not laugh at a genocide. Everyone who laughs at a genocide is going to be punished, including Randy find at some point, people committed the genocide will be punished most harshly. And that's the Israeli government. So like, it's not in their long-term interest to encourage this kind of criminal behavior, obviously. Any more to be

in your kids' interest to give them heroin. No matter how much they wanted it, if you love your kids, don't give them heroin. If you love your ally Israel, don't abet genocide, because it's not going to end well for them or for you. But whatever, Randy find, when he hears any, not even criticism, mild chastisement of Israel, immediately launches into Holocaust mode. This is not sustainable. That's kind of the point. Obviously, it's not justifiable, but it's not sustainable.

So when you tune into Fox and they're doing yet another segment of the rise in anti-Semitism in America, and you think, well, maybe there is a rise in anti-Semitism in America. They're certainly

“a massive rise in distrust of Israel. Massive. But where does that come from?”

Is it because people's welcome or more like, no, I'm going to blame all my problems on the juice. Just hate the Jews. It's an ancient hatred. I'm mad they've been poisoning wells or whatever. Just millions of Americans decided to become a rationally hateful one day. Probably not. Probably not just anti-Semitism. It's not just this ancient hatred that just rears its head randomly, like a bubonic plague or something. No, it's not an active nature in this specific case and it's

not aimed at all Jews. Hardly, it's disapproval at the behavior of a secular government that we fund. And everybody knows that except for the tiny percentage and it's a very tiny percentage, most of them seem to have congressional seats of American leaders who seem to sincerely believe and I will give Randy Fine credit for sincerity, probably sincerely believe that the only motive for criticizing the secular government of Israel must be irrational due hatred.

Of course, you don't even address the many, many Jews in good standing who have the same view of the government of Israel, which is its bad and it's terrible for the US. You don't even address people like that because that, you know, this is the cognitive dissonance that's just unbearable. Like, what do you do with Glenn Greenwald? You're not really Jewish. Shut up. You're Nazi. Okay, now.

So basically the point is, when you have criticism that is rooted not in hatred, but in reality,

and when you have a fundamental conflict of interest, Israel needs to have one thing, the much larger patron country needs to have another thing. You're facing a really tough situation

Which you don't do is threaten another 9/11 if you don't get your way.

“Because you may pull off another 9/11, okay? But it's not going to change the fundamental dynamic.”

And the only people who don't understand this at this point are the bitter enders in the U.S. Congress in the American Neocon commentariat. They just have no idea. And that is a recipe for collision, for collision. So here's and I'll stop with this before we get to an analysis from to a political expert, Brandon Waker, on where we are in this conflict and how we can get out of it

and what the cost might be when we do. But this clip just really kind of says it all. So this is from Fox News, which was at one point, I guess, a broadly conservative back when that term had meaning, cable network, familiar with it. Of course, a lot of great people there, but it has become in the last year sort of a non-stop cheerleader for the most nihilistic kind of military action. Military action that has no assured positive outcome. Really, the point of it is just to

click kill people apparently. Like, what is the point? No one ever explains that, but you're you're a weakling and unpatriotic and probably a secret Muslim if you're not for it. I mean, that's literally it is nihilism. You can't tell me why this is a good idea. You can only attack

me for not getting on board with it. Okay. That's very dark. You never want to find yourself

advocating for things like that, but they are. And because they are and because it's the most important thing to the network for reasons that are not clear, all of a sudden, every other issue is subsumed into that. It's not important at all. So you find yourself in a place where you have long time conservative, not just cable news hosts, but but figures, like very famous people recognize what people are doing this for 30 years, but in your bedroom for 30 years,

“telling you that what matters are the conservative values and those would be roughly in order,”

small government, lower taxes, entrepreneurship, family values, pro-life, no

castrating kids. All of a sudden, you have people like that making common cause. In fact,

not just common cause, but celebrating figures on the other side, with whom they agree on nothing except the need for the United States to keep funding irrational counterproductive genocide. Oh, behavior in a foreign country, because that's all that matters. So you wind up with a tableau like the one we're about to show you where you've got Sean Hannity commiserating with John Fetterman, who's very liberal on everything except Israel and who knows even what

liberal means now. But he's on the other side of every other issue except Israel, which for reasons either of cognitive impairment or campaign donations, he's decided is the only issue that matters and they're looking right in the camera and telling you, yeah, any criticism of Israel is just Jew-hate and it means you're a bad American. This is the kind of clip that will be preserved in the museum of national decline at some point. How did this great country dissolve? Well,

because the people went insane, the people with the most power went insane, they started saying things that make no sense at all and this will definitely be in that exhibit. So here's Sean Hannity

“and John Fetterman. All right, let me ask this. Why, why the deep hatred for Israel? Why?”

Yeah, because I mean, if you, you have such contempt for Israel, I mean, of course you're also anti-American and your anti-Western civilian civilization and your, you know, seem anti-capitalism and the American way of life. It's like something to get literal. Okay, so a socialist country, which is Israel, not attacking him, just saying founded by socialist, on socialist principles, it's not a free market country. It's run by the government and the military. It's like the

opposite of a free market country. It's pretty successful country, you know, for a bunch of reasons, but if you don't support Israel, you're against capitalism and you're against America. Is there any other foreign nation to which this is a plies? If you don't support Maldova, if you don't support Estonia, you don't support Guinea-Bassau, you don't like America. Where are you in the media? Countries like equal and relative significance globally,

like they're not really players. Israel's not really a player except to the extent that we imbue it with value because our politicians have been lobbied by them, but like inherently,

But you have your politicians and say, where are you on Guinea-Bassau? Where are you on French Guyana?

You gotta get on board with French Guyana. Put a French Guyini's flag on your lapelor. You hate America. You're against capitalism. You'd be like, why you wear it? You've got a head injury pal? Like what? Lay off the psilocybin. It's not, not helping. But says that with the straight face, and then has the gall to say, and this is not an attack on poor federalman who is impaired or on poor Hannity who was also impaired.

This is just a reminder of what reality is. You're an enemy of Western civilization. Okay, now, now you've roused me from my slumber. I'm an enemy of Western civilizations, so you're begging the question then, what is Western civilization?

Well, it's a lot of things that emanate from Rome, Israel's ancient enemy, but let's just

put it succinctly. At the core of this thing we call Western civilization upon which our society is based is the idea of justice. What is justice in the West in this thing called Western civilization? Justice is the notion that we punish the guilty and we spare the innocent. And it is not simply an accident for which we're sort of sorry. It is a grave offense against the idea of justice itself

“to ever punish the innocent. And that's why we go through an elaborate process called the”

Justice System to prevent doing that. We don't have a justice system to make it easier to convict people. We have a justice system to make it harder. So terrified are we at the prospect of hurting the innocent? That is the core idea of Western civilization. Where does that idea come from? That idea comes from a Christian understanding of the human soul. The human soul, your soul, is co-equal with every other human soul, because God created every human being.

People in Western civilization don't think they are uniquely chosen by God and therefore exempt from universal rules. They don't believe that. They believe just the opposite. They believe that people in, yes, Guinea, Bessau, well, maybe not welcome here to

partake in our welfare state, but are never the less equal to us on the most basic moral level,

“because they are human beings. And that's why we think called human rights. So that idea is the”

basis of Western civilization. And because it is Western civilization is precluded from doing the thing that all tyrannies do that uncivilized nations do, which is punished on the basis of bloodline. There is no blood guilt in Western civilization. There cannot be because it is a direct contradiction of the West's understanding of the human soul. You are different from your father, and your mother, and your ancestors going back however many thousand years because you are you,

you are a distinct soul created by God. And you cannot be killed because you were related to people the murderer doesn't like. That is the most repugned and thing in this collective we call Western civilization. And that is the very thing that is real embraces. You can say whatever you want about Israel, and I've said honestly many times, great country in a lot of ways, charming, smart people, lots of great things. But the Israeli government has abandoned the central tenant of Western civilization,

which is just us on an individual basis, and instead adopt an older and darker, and I would say evil standard, a blood guilt. So don't lecture me about Western civilization, and tell me if I don't defend Israel, I don't defend Western civilization. I oppose the policies of Israel precisely because I do defend Western civilization. John Fettering. Well, a lot of organizations talk about supporting veterans, but not all of them actually do it, not even close. And that's

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are vital to help today visit bootcampaign.org bootcampaign.org. Imagine if every time inverse creamer or another top investor bought a stock you bought it to in your own broker's account automatically. Well, that now exists and it's called autopilot. Build by the team behind the viral Pelosi stock tracker. autopilot lets you browse their marketplace of strategies run by proven investors or AI German models. Just find one with a high return, connect your personal broker's

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called Brandon Weikert who was a geopolitical analyst. Someone most people probably weren't familiar with before this conflict, but since it began a lot of people have been tuning into regularly to understand what is going on and to get facts about it. So we are honored to have him join us now. Brandon, thanks so much for coming on. So can you just start big picture? Thank you. And tell us where are we now? Last time when we left the cereal, we were on the verge of

negotiating out this memorandum of understanding this MOU. How was that going? Where are we?

“Well, we have to remember, well first of all, it's going better. I think than what we were doing”

about a week ago, which is shooting at everything. So that's a win. It's a low bar these days, but I take that as a win. But it's only 60 days. And the three parties involved, because remember, it's not a two-party issue. It's not just U.S. and Iran. If it were, I think we could probably get this thing wrapped up pretty quickly. And the third party is, as you noted, Israel and they're not really a party to the negotiations. And they don't perceive themselves. This is very important

as being bound by the negotiations that are ongoing. So the only way that they would really be restrained from, say, doing something to blow up this very tenuous temporary right now, 60 day at most ceasefire would be if the president of the United States basically brought the hammer down on his counterparty in Tel Aviv and told them we were going to cut you off if you do anything to metal. And I can assure you that the Israeli government is looking to complicate this process right now.

So where are we right now? Well, we have not had a resumption of hostilities. Today that we are doing this show, we had, I think, the highest number of ships go through the straight of our moves since the war really began. The number I believe, I want to say was 43, which is high for post what was

“going on in the war. But I want your audience to remember that this is about, and I have the”

numbers here. It's going to be one second. This is about 22 30 percent of normal pre-war capacity.

What that means is the pre-war baseline for container and oil ships getting through the straight of our moves was about 120 to 140 ships that was around 100 million barrels of oil every week. We are nowhere near that right now. So there's a lot of irrational exuberance coming from Washington, D.C. because they got to spin this thing as best as they can. We're seeing it decline in the price of oil because of the mini-glut. You see, a lot of ships were blocked from leaving the straight

of our moves. The last two months, now that the straight is somewhat reopen, they're leaving. And we're not really seeing a commiserate increase in ships coming to collect a new oil. It's mostly outgoing. So until that changes, people like me are going to be on pins and needles.

“I think what's happening here with the price of energy going to about $72 a barrel,”

which is pre-war level and good for us. It's good for our wallets right now. That's a mini-glut. And a lot of oil experts were anticipating this before the war really got going. Also for the last two months, China basically pulled themselves voluntarily off the global market.

They have the world's largest strategic petroleum reserve, 1.4 billion barrels of oil

was in their SPR. So what they did was as soon as the straight of her moves was shut down, they took themselves off the market. That is one of the reasons you've seen these sort of bizarre downturns when everybody was expecting the price to go up. It's because China pulled themselves off the market. When they come back on to the market and they will soon, that's going to cause problems. That's the civilian side of the story.

The military side Tucker and feel free if you want me to stop.

Okay, yeah, well, thank you. And it's come to this. I have to work glasses nowadays.

“But the weapons depletion rate, this is all publicly available. I do not deal in classified”

information. I am a public person. I don't deal in stolen information because that is something that's been lobbed at me in recent weeks. So missile interceptors about 50% of the inventory of Patriot Ballistic missile interceptors and 50 likely closer to 80% of terminal high altitude area defense interceptors were expended in the course of the war. Over 1,000, that's about a third of our entire stockpile of Tomahawk cruise missiles has been expended. Large quantities of the

jasmine missiles as well as pretty much the entire prewar inventory of new precision strike missiles, the prisms that were used also interestingly enough because we were told there was

never any threat to our navy. This is why, of course, they never really dared to go through the

straight Oremus. The navy reports that they expended large quantities of their SM3 and SM6 naval interceptors, which indicates to me, if I may conjecture here, that there must have been one hell of a fight over the security of our ships when the war was in its kinetic phase. So the White House was lying when they said that the ships were totally safe. Our ships are very much at risk, obviously, from these numbers. Furthermore, there are now significant gaps in the supply chain

for those naval defenders. One last bit of data I'd like to deliver here, I'm sorry, that's the wrong one. The chart here I have is for the prism, we blew through our prewar stock, which was already low. They're saying the best estimate will be it will be replenished by late this year. The Jassum air to surface missiles will probably be replaced middle of next year. Those SM3 SM6 Navy defense missiles will take until about mid-2028. Those Patriot interceptors, not until

closer to 2030. The FAD interceptors and the FADs are the real important ones. That's not going to come until probably 2030 and the Tomahawk's will not be replaced for another five years. So we better hope that the Chinese or some other area of interest is no longer requiring our assistance because we have depleted ourselves Tucker and I will just add and conclude my little statement here with unfortunately it is my assessment that this memorandum of understanding that might or may not

“lead to a longer deal. I'm very skeptical of that. I think we'll get a 60 day reprieve and then it'll”

be like the tariffs it'll be every 45 days or getting an extension but I would just add that what we have agreed to the Trump administration and they didn't have a choice because the president already said we're going to run out of oil in four weeks. So he was up against a wall and good for him for doing

this but ultimately this is a conditional surrender document. The United States started a war

and it promptly lost. The Iranians have unfortunately strategically at the strategic level they have achieved victory and where I think this goes geopolitically is a post-American Middle East in which Israel is likely now the Pariah state whereas before the war you'll remember even even after 10/7 the Abraham Accords were really still in effect and they were working Israel as sort of the center of this new US-backed order in the Middle East. That's gone and there's now going to

be a new Middle East and it's going to comprise and this is my friend Dr. Arta Moini. This has been his thesis as well and I agree with him there's going to be five powers in the Middle East now it's going to be Saudi Arabia the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan with their nuclear umbrella

“the Egyptians second largest economy in Africa one of the best I think is probably the best conventional”

military in the Muslim world and then Turkey with its very impressive industrial indigenous base. Remember Jonathan Canarek is the former IDF spokesman at the JNS conference this last week implied that the Israelis could not build an F-35 on their own I would add that's true but actually the Turks are proving with their new confiner that they absolutely could on their own they don't need the US and NATO they have a very proficient defense industrial base those Middle East powers

are greater Middle East powers because obviously Pakistan Egypt and Turkey are not technically in the Middle East but those greater Middle East powers are going to form the new post-American order and you know where it goes from here really is up to really Mr Netanyahu and his government Tucker. The whole point of keeping a gun at home for self-defense is to defend yourself and

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ask you where you're gonna put them feel free to mention us brown house some best in price yet at 2.08.09.00 giav worth of the streaming vanoch niso wow i mean that is is i've thought from really a couple weeks into this conflict that is a disaster for Israel and you know it's not my job to defend Israel it has enough defenders in our country but just objectively speaking i don't think the

outcome could be much worse strategically for Israel so yeah and i don't think they're good stewards of their own future i don't think they're wise i don't think they're helping certainly not their government they're they're that's right yeah i knew i know there are about about 20% of Israelis are not okay with what's gone yeah what's really surprising Tucker is you know my colleague Kieran Andrew has been talking about this to me for for a long time

is just how consistently supportive majority Israelis are of the net yeah who policies even if they don't like net nia who they're okay with what he's doing and i argue what he's been doing

“since 10/7 has put them in this position oh yeah no it's truly it's a disaster and i think the”

voice president put it best when he said you can't kill your way out of every problem and and that's just a that's a fat it's a physics principle really it's like not even a judgment it's just true and so but here's my question like how did they so now you have the regional powers are all muslim states by the way majority muslim states and they're all kind of hostile to Israel and they have reason to be hostile to Israel and Israel spent the last number of decades

making bellicose noises at all these governments assassinating people in their countries basically

treating them like animals and now they're kind of in charge of one of the critical regions in the

world so where does that leave Israel well they're going to be basically the way we treated Iran for the last 47 years the Israelis will now be treated that way and it is not

“because particularly the Arab states woke up and said we're gonna screw Israel you remember again”

the Abraham Accords were still being pushed by even Saudi Arabia behind the scenes oh and until about October November of last year what happened the Israelis decided to entreat with Hamas and got their leadership to go or their negotiators to go to Qatar meet and doha under diplomatic cover the Israelis said they were sending their diplomats and what they ended up sending was a cruise missile into the building in doha and ended up killing a

Qatari security agent they ended up wounding they didn't even it technically it was a disaster for them they didn't even kill the targets they ended up killing a bunch of low-level guys from Hamas the big guys survived then they came back even angrier go figure but furthermore at that point that was the

first time that Israel had struck a golf a GCC country which had been going along quite well

with the Abraham Accords at that point since last November when those strikes occurred that was September September 9 was it September I'm sorry they before Charlie Kirk was killed George you're wow you're absolutely right it was September yes I apologize thank you for correcting me but but it was in the fall of last year and the point is is that this shift occurred and a momentum began building in

actually the Israelis exactly and that's the key to understand it because all the Arab states for the

most part the governments at least were agreeing with Israel saying Iran's a bigger problem than anything we dealt with the Israelis that flipped on its head almost instantly and the Americans were of course stuck holding the bag because we gave the cruise missile we we've been providing diplomatic cover we've been providing economic aid trump has been has been providing political cover for netting Yahoo on a personal basis leader to leader you know he's the one begging the

nest for partens for netting Yahoo and his top people so the the Arab states look around going not only are the Israelis going to be a problem but we got to get the Americans out of here now too exactly and that is that play here because we lost a bunch of our bases or rather they've been degraded as the Pentagon keeps saying those bases are not coming back online in any meaningful sense Tucker because the Arabs know they have to get us out at least the level that we're at

because otherwise they can't they can't contain Israel and now you're going to see a real

“flip from trying to contain Iran to now trying to contain Israel and that's what I think is going”

to play out over the next five years I don't know how that's going to play out I think your analysis is spot on a very smart and I hope people are listening to this but I just wonder how it unfolds because Israel feels legitimately threatened and you could say Israel has a very long history of hyping threats and we heard Randy find invoked the Holocaust okay settled down Randy find but this is a real threat it's almost like all of their hyperbole became real like they are actually

threatened now it is the self-fulfilling prophecy but it's been fulfilled so like if you have a country like Israel or really any country that feels Russia that feels cornered that's a very dangerous country yeah well no if certainly and if you're a neighbor of Israel you're you're going to have to

always be looking over your shoulder but this is only going to compel the regional powers to

align against Israel even more the reason the Egyptians even were thinking about getting closer to Saudi and Pakistan and Turkey in this new alliance is because the Israelis woke up after 10 seven and started pushing all the Palestinian Arabs trying to get them in Gaza to go to the Sinai Desert and the Egyptians are saying we have all these deals with you we've covered for you

“Israel's WTF man like what do you do and so you know this is part of the problem so you're I think”

I think what you're getting at is and maybe I'm wrong is does this risk nuclear exchange of or something I mean it's so it's two it Israel's under too much pressure I don't think their leaders are thinking clearly at all I know Israelis who are thinking clearly you're right to say there is a percentage of the population that's like shocked by what their government is doing but the government is not thinking clearly at all now have some guy threatened nine eleven

against the United States on Twitter like this is there we're in a crazy stage I think of their history so like I'm just concerned that they're under too much yeah under too much pressure yeah no so you know that there is a real chance that they will do something with nuclear weapons I wouldn't say though it is yet a probability I think if if Netanyahu is not in power I suspect even if it's a hard line leader which it probably will be they will probably play

“things a bit more slie they'll be a little bit more slie about it and I think part of that”

is because they can't count anymore on America always having their back if they use a

nuke that's pretty much it that's the final and I'm not saying they won't but I just I'm not ready to say that is I thought that at the beginning of the war when everything just looked to be going so fast but I look now and it looks to me like both on some level the Iranians have pulled back from some of their extreme rhetoric and while Israel is really going hard against Lebanon the fact is I don't yet know if they are ready to pull the nuclear trigger because that

is it then and I think that a lot of Israelis tell themselves look we've always been the pariah we've always been on the outside on the periphery and we'll just deal with that and we'll be stronger so that I hope is what the thought is but it is still yes it is it is a higher probability or higher possibility but I wouldn't say probable just yet that that under these conditions they would go nuclear I saw this last year where the talking points from Israel's agents the United

States were rolled out about how Qatar was funding Hamas oh they were saying you were funded by Qatar yeah right yeah I was going to make it dark yeah I'm I'm the one is an agent of a foreign power also I just ignored it but it's so insane you know every accusation is an admission

I don't think most Americans are aware that Qatar sent money to voss at the request of Israel okay that's right they were doing a solid for BB net and yahu so I was just taking a big

by the way of course he was taking a cut always one of the reasons he was under investigation

not always own government exactly so I knew this but I don't want to say it because like no one would believe it sounds so crazy yes some Qatar sent money to Hamas because Israel why would Israel want money to go to Hamas I didn't want to get into it so I didn't say it but I knew it and then I watched as these propaganda started to convince themselves that Qatar which is like the most moderate country in the world is somehow like the main sponsor of terror and the next thing you know

their bombing Qatar in the middle of a negotiation which I grew through was a pivotal moment in the history that region and Trump thought that too Trump was completely outraged by it but he humiliated Netanyahu remember exactly what the phone and the oval office and then he said we're going to build a Qatar military base and Idaho just like show you how much we love Qatar and he actually does love Qatar I mean they gave him a new plan but my point is I watched this process which is familiar

“I think to all people where you tell a lie and then you convince yourself the lie is true”

and you get so overwrought believing your own lie that you do something crazy I guess that's the thing I'm worried about yeah no and that's certainly a possibility look Israel's a very ideological state you know it's interesting because I think you and I probably come from the same kind of ideological

origin story and I was always led to believe I wrote a book not long ago about about the threat of

Iran and it's this ideological crazy power they get the nuke it's going to be suicide bombing with nuke since the end and you know you look at how they conducted themselves in this wartucker and again I hate that they beat us because I love America so I'm not happy with that but they actually conducted themselves quite responsibly the Iranian military did not go crazy the Iranian military did not send suicide bombers to go blow up civilian I mean they didn't do the things I think you and I

were taught to believe oh yeah they would do and that's a good thing by the way that's a very good thing because it means that they're they can be reasoned with on some level not that I'm saying I trust them but you know they have self interest and and that's a very powerful motivator here and they're very smart about protecting their interests the Israelis come across now as the ideological power as the ones who might actually I mean look at this thing in Lebanon listen Tucker I know you

mentioned in your in your commentary that you know they had taken half of the country they actually

“took like I think like 25% maybe but the the Israeli defense force are running these 2006”

tactics against a 2026 has bill of force and it's having really devastating results for the idea it just this time a month ago you had the IDF chief of staff telling publicly twice he said at the times of Israel then he said it while he was talking to them I think the uh cabinet for Netanyahu saying that the IDF is on the brink of collapse if we don't get a massive surge of new recruits uh into the IDF in southern Lebanon and the reason that they've been struggling

is because they're using their Mercava main battle tanks to basically run up the gut to basically

go into these urban centers where they are basically they can't maneuver they can't work around the way they need to and as well as waiting they're lying and weight and they've got these drones and they've got these anti tank guided munitions just like the Ukrainians had at the beginning of the

“of the war with Russia and the Russians were not prepared for that and that's why you had in the”

beginning such a large number of Russian tanks getting annihilated it was because the Ukrainians had figured out how to do this new form of anti tank warfare the Israelis watched all this they didn't learn any of it though they didn't learn a thing they've lost upwards possibly and it's very murky but they might have lost as many as 60 Mercava main battle tanks just because they keep running these things up the gut not using them on the periphery of battle as that's how you're

supposed to use them now I had a long conversation in December with the great Danny Davis Colonel Davis and you know former tank commander and he was in the in the armored infantry and he sort of walked me through in great detail what tanks need to be or how it takes you to be used today in modern combat the Israelis know how they're supposed to be used they won't use them and so this idea that they're even really being effective I don't actually think again on the strategic level they're

really having the in the desired impact they're blowing a lot of stuff up they're killing a lot of people but they're not actually translating that into like a real political and state and what is the political and state I have been told by former security officials in Israel and this is really

Lebanon they want to create what they call a basically a desolate security buffer between their

“northern tier region and the southern component of Lebanon that's what they say but the even that”

they can't do it because what they're the way that they're fighting this is completely not tethered to the way you're supposed to fight the modern war as the Ukrainians have shown us when it comes to tanks and the Russians now so this a lot of myths have been broken here and that makes the Israeli political establishment you're right that makes them more desperate because the myth of the IDF as this you know they punch above their weight etc that's really being dispelled in real time

everybody sees it and it's it's setting off alarm bells among the Israelis and they don't know

what to do all they know is to keep pressing the gas pedal and expanding so you know it could get

very very bad here you know if this thing continues as it is inflation makes credit card statements particularly scary you work 40 50 hours week just by groceries and gas things you you should be able to afford without thinking that much about it then the banks charge you 20% interest if the system is designed to keep you underwater it's working but there's another option our friends at American financing are doing something the big banks despise they are helping people mortgage rates in the

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American financing a call 800 six eight five fifty six ninety six as one hundred six eight five fifty six ninety six of is an American financing dot net slash Tucker America's home for home loans Cafe in a best-in-form with cubo with jeder cafe off-knockedrocks on generous moment then with the new cubo one capsule machine from chibo genies to feinston spits and cafe out special and unborebidden foil mondica aromindank innovative press brutation logie and oversip

in sort and cafe for any schmack a leba premium cafe from up now and 20 euro and decades yet the cubo

“capsule machine in diner chibo fiale and of chibo d and I think it was widely known I mean I remember”

an American Marine officer 25 years ago telling me who done a lot of joint exercises with the idea of an at friends the idea of and you know wasn't against Israel as pro Israel actually but he's like ah they're not that they're not that impressive at all and he spend a lot of time maintaining their reputation and sort of less time you know becoming impressive and so I think people knew that but now everybody knows it and they also know it I hate to say this but about the US military like

why if we have all these aircraft carriers sure the most you know expensive word device ever built and we can't use them to open a straight that's not that long what are we doing so I I don't know if you're familiar but but one of one of my calling cards is I am one of the world's biggest critics of the aircraft carrier so I right with you here I am the the main battle tank the aircraft carrier you could make the area but they're not quite obsolete I think in the case of the tank

“I think Danny Davis made that case and December to me very well it's just you have to use them”

differently but the carrier the carrier my god it is so not right for the kinds of wars that we're fighting today it cannot provide it can't defend itself so maybe it can launch some of their planes but we saw this with was an operation prosperity garden against the Houthi rebels where basically the Houthi rebels chased uncle Sam out of the red sea and we have not gone back there since 2024 I talked to a destroyer a guy who served on a destroyer during operation prosperity garden

and he said that he has in his entire career never seen anything like the kind of hell

that the Houthis were giving the US navy and that was the Houthis now we're talking again about the Iranians which okay they're not Russia or China not yet but but they clearly are a competent military force they clearly understand strategy and tactics and they clearly employ those tactical capabilities with very significant effect they kept us out of the strait of her moves Tucker I know for a fact I'm not going to say how but I know for a fact that we were moving forces for a much

bigger operation into the region and that whole thing was was stunted because partly of the way

send a ship for like a freedom of navigation type operation there was no way in hell the Emeralds

we're going to risk sending an entire amphibious lander full of Marines to land on cargo island or to take a sham or whatever insanity the Trump administration was spewing at that time I would also add there is clearly a shake up or a breakdown going on at the highest levels of our uniform military command structure I bet there is and that's not being widely reported go figure

“but I will say you know everybody's focused on the reflecting pool in Washington DC I think it was”

Donahue who resigned today the head of he was with african he resigned today Fred Kotcher who we spoke about previously when I was on the show I've noticed he's not being charged with being a leaker

he's actually being allowed to to leave quietly it looks like that to me indicates that Kotcher

was speaking for more than himself I think that he was speaking for Dan Kane when he leaked that conversation between Dan Kane and Trump on the eve of the war in February 27 which indicates to me there's there's a significant amount of uniform military leaders who are looking around and they're saying the same work and we're not being heard were GTF-L going out of here it does seem like that needs to happen I don't understand how the United States could be

the U.S. military could be so totally and obviously unprepared for modern drone warfare

“having watched it in different parts. We helped create it. I'm aware of that and I think he did create”

it really and yeah so yeah I mean the modern iteration of it in Afghanistan and I remember I remember

it very well I was October 2001 but anyway the point is I don't I just don't get that all these smart people biggest budget on the planet biggest budget in history and that you're not prepared to beat the hooties to keep the red sea open like that should occasion deep soul searching punishment of the guilty by the way and it it hasn't and instead we've got like a bunch of aircraft carriers in production still what is going on well their in production not being produced very

quickly because our shipyards are a sclerotic mess but what's going on is the bubble right it's not only protects the people in DC that you and I lived among for a long time and not only protects them from reality it also protects them from accountability. Looking back on 9/11 whatever people think may have happened to cause 9/11 I certainly have my ideas the fact is nobody was held accountable for the very blatant security failures ever except for like you know Richard Clark

who whether you like him or not he did kind of warn us it was coming and he was the one and you know he was you know he was the one that guy you know so but anyway you know nobody's really ever held accountable that's the whole system in DC it is one of protecting you know CYA you know cover your a you know that's that's that's the whole logic and it's all political and they're

“going to protect each other and close ranks that's why after Iraq by the way all of the”

generals remember Frank's the day that the fighting in Baghdad we got Baghdad in 03 the day that we did that he put in his resignation papers and him and his top generals resigned on my retired on moss to go right there memoirs because they knew the insurgency was going to come and the whole thing was going to go upside down and they didn't want to be blamed so that's your that's sort of what you're dealing with in DC whether it's the uniform or not uniform people and so

you know the only way this is going to change Tucker is if Congress actually gets off its rear end and starts holding the military accountable why haven't there been committee hearings yet where where is the people in Congress demanding after action briefings demanding accountability for the very clear fairs I heard Seth Moulton who I know is kind of a left wing you know he's kind of nutty but Seth Moulton to guy I admire the hell out of Albert Colby about can March he

really held bridges feed to the fire though not personally but for the organization the Pentagon's failure to account for the fact that we were going to burn through all the munitions that we went through you know we need more of that and we're not getting it and that's the sort of thing that will only ever bring accountability and they don't want to do it because fundamentally everybody's somehow benefiting from the existing system right and it's it's such a recognizable syndrome where you're

destroyed by flattery not criticism it's because people who claim they love you who encourage your worst impulses it's the what they call it like a world the enablers that's okay you got a

who kill you and it's all these members of congress and Fox News flag pinwares who are like we have got the greatest military in the world the president says that all the time and it's like yeah

it's a great military great people amazing people especially in the ranks yeah however like they need

“to be held to the highest standards that's why they're the greatest and when you drop the standards”

they become less impressive like well they become jacking I mean you know listen to him on Fox and it's no one is listening to so shame well you know or or you say or you're for a Jesse Kelly who it's they're just the waters rather who is tweeting out all these insane things about how much winning we're doing and I wish that were the case but you know North Korea wants their propaganda back because this is this is the greatest strategic defeated the United States I think maybe ever

thankfully the casualties the U.S. casualty rate was not in the many thousands that isn't less than yes that's also though because the way the war was fought it was mostly targeting our bases so a lot of our people thankfully were near hospitals and a lot of our people were able to when they did get wounded severely they were able to receive very top quality treatment either with military you know assistance or that the locals had good hospitals they were able to

get our people to and they were treated in that very important golden hour when one is injured

and they were I mean that is a blessing so in that way we can be very thankful but ultimately

at the strategic level which our military leaders should be worried about at the strategic level this is this is the end of America's hegemony that's it those days are done right the Charles Crot Homer's beloved unipolar moment completely devastated a Pat Buchanan is proven right more

“and more every day when he challenged Crot Homer on that in the 90s you remember that I'm sure better”

than me but you know ultimately where I think this is going on the global level Tucker and again feel free to cut me off but where I'm going with this is it's looking to me like the transition from unfortunately US being sort of the dominant global power to a multipolar system in which really China is sort of the rising dominant power that's just been expedited that's been expedited and you know I keep hearing from people in Trump's orbit that well really this was 5D chess

because we were going we collapsed then as well and we took that offline for China and we went after Iran which is another big energy source for China and we took that offline and they're going to be on their knees well as it turned out like I said at the beginning China was more than well prepared for this in fact I would argue that the Chinese the reason they voluntarily divorce themselves from the global market and decided to rely solely on their very impressive SPR this

“strategic petroleum reserve is because it was a proof of concept for them because I think Beijing knows”

the next move by America if this is part of some grand bizarre crackpot plan the next move will be eventually to go after the straight of Malaka and to try to cut China off and and they are preparing themselves for surviving that America's 250th anniversary is here and it presents a great opportunity to consider why our national culture matters being an American is not something to be ashamed of we should all be proud to live here and the same goes for being a Christian this July

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these stories tied together history and faith that will affirm your faith it's not a feel good history lesson it's a July 4th invitation to look at people who live with courage and to encourage us to strive to do the same download Hallow free for three months at Hallow.com/tucker and do this challenge we loved it you will love it I don't think there's any appetite for that and this is not 5D chess this is drunk

and I say that with with sadness I will say I think I don't think I know that the administration

“has gotten religion on this they understand it the consequences are proceeding are so severe”

that not only are they committed to ending this but they are turning against the president of self is turning against the people advocated for it I guess this is all inevitable wasn't it and so the enemies there see how well well I don't know as of this morning at least in this country yeah and that's my next question to you yeah okay what do you do actually to restrain Israel which is the impediment to settling this but it I would say domestically

Trump has totally sowered on mark Levin not guessing he has on mark how you were ever sweet on mark Levin I totally the whole thing was it was like a deranged episode it was like that you know weird affair you had like you know what I mean like I can't believe I ever found that girl attractive like what was I thank you and and to take away from those experiences in the life of

“a man is don't always trust your own judgment like I have the capacity to go crazy but anyway”

that's right so I do think they or he again I don't think I know he's now like actively angry at the people who help convince him to do this but that's not the same as getting this done getting the MOU hammered out and translated into an enduring piece what does the administration

need to do to achieve that do you think well the first thing is Trump needs to stop having

Natalie text out these insane things about how he's going to kill the negotiators I mean that would be the first you know just just putting the going for the loan from here you know so first that then we then we would probably say Mr. President you really need to use this as an opportunity a teachable moment as Obama used to lecture us about a real teachable moment here we can really use this as a window to actually implement the very brilliant and I know you know that I supported

“this national security strategy memo from last year which said we weren't going to do any of this”

nobody read it but it was so Marc Levin did his siren song from Fox News and dragged us in but but I would say that this is a real opportunity because the Arabs don't want us around anymore I mean they want to do business with us which is great that's fine because I don't know if I want to do business with us after this chat show but they want to do business with us still for the most part so this is a real opportunity for us to create sort of a long-term

exit strategy from the whole geopolitical quicksand let the locals figure out their own mess they

know the neighborhood better they'll figure it out by the way big brother always being around for

Israel is the absolute worst thing for Israel because it creates this sort of we talk about moral hazard when we talk about like bailouts well in this case it's moral hazard in a geopolitical sense because the Israelis think we're always going to bail them out so and we can't do that anymore because I just told you we depleted all of our systems as well oh by the way I'm going to tell you this fun fact I was told not long ago by a little birdie that actually the Israelis were stunned

by how many of our defensive munitions we expended on their behalf because the Israelis didn't expend anywhere near as many of their critical defensive munitions defending their own cities and their own country they were they were they couldn't believe the Americans even let the Iranians attack American territory or American facilities in the Arab states and they let and we sent all that stuff to Israel so the Israelis didn't even use anywhere near

the level of the position you know why because we're all my cuckabee it's like our leaders love

Israel more than Israel loves itself it's like it reminds you the George Floyd thing I'll never

forget video of like some liberal white lady washing the feet of a black one the black woman wasn't that why are you washing why are you washing my feet like this weird the black lady's the white liberals like I love you you're only the black lady's like oh you're freaking me out yeah it's right that's right that's right and that's exactly what we're seeing here play out so the first thing I would say is this is an opportunity to pull out and never go back pull out right now never go back in the process

get on the phone with Bibi and explain to him a multi-point plan for stopping sending the aid that we've been sending we are not going to engage anymore in intelligence sharing at any level that we've been doing we are not by the way there's I can reference a bunch of former CIA guys and one former US Army intelligence officer that I know who told me that when he was in Iraq he was charged with basically dealing with a certain area of the Sunni triangle in 0405

interrupting and interfering with our missions to try to stop al Qaeda in Iraq from doing whatever the hell they were doing and I said you know I asked him I go what do you think was the reason because I'm not even going to get into that because I don't want to lose my pension so you know we're dealing with non ally ally fighting a non-war war with a non ceasefire ceasefire right now

so it's all very sort of you know nihilistic but we can just ask you to back up for a second

and explain a little more deeply what you think that comment meant about what's

“out operating in Iraq and the Sunni triangle I think that they had people on the ground and we”

you know this is me now just sort of speculating based on that this is not okay so my speculation is this was a few years before ISIS really got I mean before the the Syrian civil war really got going but remember there was a whole buildup before it even popped off and one of those buildups was we let out all of the al Qaeda in Iraq fighters from Campbuca which was a very nasty facility along the Syrian border all those guys ended up going back into Syria and they became basically

the nucleus of al-Nusra front ISIS and that basically was our shock troops against Assad and we

armed them with the arms that we got from Kadafi through Benghazi which is what Benghazi really was exactly and the Turks were running it was the rat line yeah so so basically I can't help but to wonder if the reason Mossad or Israeli intelligence was on the ground in that particular area of the country of Iraq during that time is because they were doing something to try to shape what would eventually become sort of the nucleus of the attack on Assad because we know

that seven nations and seven years or whatever the quote from general clerk was right we know there was some grand plan originally that the neoconservatives Paul Wolfowitz and the clean break memo guys all concocted that would have seen us going after I mean I I was told by somebody who was there that in 2004 John Bolton and Dick Cheney were trying to convince Bush

“to bomb Assad in 04 so I think this is somehow that story is somehow related to what because we know”

there was a buildup before suddenly all these things just popped off in Syria there was part of a plan William van Wagonan talks a lot about things like this in his wonderful book Creative Chaos highly recommend your audience William's a friend of mine and he's in the region actually a very insightful guy but he you know there's a lot of people that can get deeper into this than I will but but fundamentally I do believe that that there there was in Israeli however small footprint

notably in Western Iraq and they were doing something I think probably related to what we ultimately

saw play out in Syria that would not surprise me and that would explain why there was all of a sudden this overnight consensus in the U.S. Congress throughout Washington really they're quote Assad must go and Zach a guy who had been celebrated in the Western press as he Pelosi shook hands with him of course and why wouldn't you he was a religious minority in his own country who protected religious minorities and had an ophthalmologist too and it's no wonder London

trained with a very attractive multilingual wife and like the whole thing it's the levante it's like a moderate you know a thing but protected the ancient Christian communities of Syria and then all of a sudden in one day it was like no no the real problem is Assad and we need to like blame a fake but there's also a Russian thing we were and I talked about this in my last book but there was I know that there was a group of shall we say thinkers in DC who had been pushing

this idea that we needed to roll back Russia's warm water ports after the Cold War one of those

“smaller ports but very important for their navy was Tartus and the idea was you're going to have to”

get rid of Assad to push back the Russian influence there so there was also some connectivity there with some of these these globalists after the Cold War so you had that sort of weird fusion of Islamist terrorists anti-Russia stuff is real turkey so it's kind of weird you know polyglot admixture of imponderables but there they were of all the the most dedicated opponents of civilization finding America right now it doesn't surprise me at all so you said at the outset that your

skeptical that this MOU and the negotiations ongoing and Switzerland will lead to a durable piece why

the Trump team and the Iranians kind of could do their own thing I think probably they might be

“able to get a more durable deal I think how this is going to play out is the model is going to be”

very similar to the tariffs where it was sort of like every 45 days we're just going to keep extending we'll keep extending you know some of these these these things are the tariffs I just don't think that I think that the Americans know that if they really do walk away from the straight or removes if you look at what's going on right now and the straight or removes is really become the center gravity here if you look at what's gone on the straight or removes Marco Rubio

and his gang are all saying you know it's not even possible nobody would ever told these the straight of removes well the Turks told the the Turkish straight so I mean that alone is you know sort of ridiculous when you hear that the Montro Convention works very well and has since 1936 there's no reason why we couldn't figure out some new way to make everybody happy there but anyway

“I think as long as you have those voices who are in the presidency or”

mixurating these crazy ideas I just think that you're always going to have sort of this tension where

I think that the president will always be one foot in one foot out and that's that's not good we don't need that right now we need to just get out so I'm just very skeptical I am a natural skeptic though Tucker I should say I'm skeptical of many things so that's just my background but but I also think the Israelis are the real wild card and the fact the matter is look they've got they've got a cluster of dolphin class submarines with nuclear tip cruise missiles likely

sitting off the coast of Iran right now you know what's to stop them I mean you you're not wrong to bring up that possibility if they really think that this whole thing's going to go pear shaped what's to stop them from just saying f this we're going to try to do it our way we wanted to do so this is why there's just so many different competing interests the Iranians are

never going to let go of the straightaway moves and I don't know if Trump is going to be okay with

that they are going to start tolling so the the 60 days is what we have by the way the Iranians have the first 30 days to reopen the straight fully do you really think the Iranians are going to reopen everything immediately no they're going to they're going to they're going to drag this out because they want to make sure the Americans are going to hold up there into the bargain we never have so far so the Iranians are going to drag this out that's going to then get us today 31

we will be reaching bottom barrel of our strategic petroleum reserve Gary Vogler explains to me on my twitter page recently and he's an oil expert but he explained that salt caverns where our oil is held basically the oil is tainted there and the deeper you go into those things the more tainted and the less usable the oil becomes so basically they're saying officially the the

“EIA says that we have 340 million barrels remaining now I think it's probably of usable closer to”

100 million barrels and if we can't get the straight reopened and the Arab production back up in

running which every expert I've spoken to says it's going to take weeks probably months under the best conditions to restart Arab production for a variety of reasons that means that the Iranians not letting up on the straight or her moves fully right now that is going to create shortages complications here in the United States because we're hitting bottom barrel and so this is going to compound and create I think greater political pressure on Trump and I think that that's that's

going to cause a lot of problems for maybe not getting a full-time resolution but maybe I'm wrong I'm happy to be because I would love to see us just done with this whole thing after the mid-terms and when you know there's a new political reality that's measurable because there will be at that point yeah I mean that's the upside of elections whether they're real or not they establish a new baseline of where we are and what footers want right no it's true or what

and even if they're not real I could guarantee you they're not going to rig it in favor of Trump I don't know Trump's to loot it himself into thinking that but it will not happen I've lost track of what I think but anyway here's the point we'll see if I don't see the pre March status quo politically surviving where 95% of members of Congress whatever over 90% of members take money from a pack or some version of a pack

where every member of Congress says you know unthinkingly I support Israel there are greatest hell I like I just don't see that but maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see how that survives this moment I I can't imagine it's serve I think this is sort of the height of it and it's going to

you take all the boomers and both parties who support the sort of the status quo

if it's facing they're not going to be around much longer I mean I hate to speak that way but inevitably soon it's going to change and the next generation is much more skeptical of Israel and you know some of them are some of them are anti-Semites there's no doubt there are definitely anti-Semites out there but most of the people who are skeptical are skeptical with good reason there's skeptical because they recognize there is a delineation between American interests

and Israel interests and when they eventually rise to power in Congress this new generation

“in both parties I think I think there's a reason that Israel's trying to basically permanently”

integrate aid in this current national defense authorization act and the current intelligence

authorization act I think it's because their their allies know that in another ten years it's it's a totally different ballgame for Israel they're not going to be getting the kind of support I don't know that it could take ten years I don't know it might not ten years but I got it so Tom Cotton is the driving force behind the idea of giving up the sovereignty of our intelligence he's to a foreign country he's also as far as I know the chairman of the Senate

Intelligence Committee and you a senator that's treason obviously I don't know his motive for that I have some guesses but can that continue can you have the chairman of the Senate Intel Committee demanding that we have mandatory Intel sharing with the foreign pretty obviously hostile country that's bonkers it is bonkers but it's just crazy enough where the world we're living in Tucker

“yeah Tom Cotton he he's clearly not speaking for himself and you know so I think that he will”

continue to push this as long as he's in that position and I think he will continue to be in that position until Pete hexeth is gone from the Pentagon because I think the ultimate plan is to put him in or at least it was to replace switch-out Pete with with Tom Cotton that's got an upgrade no no no no maybe and I you upgrade but it's not he watches his hands more but I think that Cotton will continue to push this and do I think that it will go forward

you know they already passed the Senate version it's now got to go through the next next round this is why they're doing this now is because this is the last shot for them and I think that Tom Cotton's motivations are not his own and I don't want to get to keep into that but yeah

“yeah and I think that there are many more and I think the fact that he and Graham and all these other people”

I think the fact that there continue to be so publicly you know supportive of these moves indicates still how much maneuvering room they still have right now I also think it's interesting though you know Cotton has been really pushing hard to basically cancel or end the DNI the director of National Intelligence at Home Office and this is something that after 9/11 a lot of intelligence professionals looked back and said look we don't need the DNI it gets in the way blah blah blah

Republicans and Democrats both never wanted to get rid of it now he wants to get rid of it

I think it's just because he's worried another Tulsi might one day be put in permanently to the DNI who might actually uncover a lot of the nefariousness that are our people have been up to in the intelligence world and so he wants to neuter that capability and return it to the director of Central Intelligence not just our people but people with whom we are quote a lot I mean it was Tom Cotton who expressed I mean this is a fact he's denied it but it's it's a fact that shortly into this

administration he expressed concern that the Kennedy thought that all the JFK files would be released well that's not you know he doesn't care it's an act of Congress well right it's in and later I mean it was an executive order but like Tom Cotton's like whoa oh why are we doing that and that's of course to cover for a foreign country so that's like crazy behavior well it is look it is it's treasonous and he's not the only one and also I think that this war powers vote I think from what a day or two

ago in the Senate I actually don't think that was anybody standing on principle I think what that was was a quiet message to Trump you remember in the last week Trump pulled Clayton's nomination for D&I Clayton is the guy you know that Tom Cotton Lindsey Graham and all the neocons wanted to replace Tulsi and for whatever reason Trump nominated him probably because Susie nominated him and

people without because he doesn't know anything that's going on in D&I he's a real estate guy but he's going there he's gonna kill everything he's gonna drain that particular part of the swamp and then also Trump is trying to get the save act tied and Pfizer reauthorization tied

“to all of this I think the war powers act was the Senate telling Trump we can get you do not”

interfere with us and I think that wing of the Senate is the neoconservative wing that

wants Pfizer reauthorized that wants to see the save act not passed and ultimately I don't think

these things are gonna get passed by the way and wants to see someone like I think it's Clayton from the SEC or from the Southern District of New York they want to see that guy in there and of course that guy for your audience may not know this but he was the guy that effed up supposedly by accident the Epstein file release yeah or last year so we have another Epstein class being promoted by the neocons as the new D&I they prefer him over billpolty so it's the agenda is more spying

“on americans there is no fourth amendment no voter ID because why would we want secure elections”

then like voters would have a say and energy prices that drive people into poverty and like all of the seems aimed at the american population it's surely these are decisions made without reference to what people want no one wants any of this you're sounding a lot like my dear friend Michael yon who's been saying this is actually a war on the american population so obvious and don't

forget um the straight-of-hormous closure one third of the world's agricultural base in allies

that's cut off and we are in the dead of planting season and what's gonna happen now here in the United States as well as elsewhere it's gonna be worse elsewhere but it's gonna be bad here we in the United States here uh not this here probably because we're still running off reserve from last planting season but next year the delayed impact of not having planted enough because we didn't have enough urea fertilizer we're gonna be talking about severe shortages in the agricultural

sector of baseline goods that every american needs you've also now again channeling Michael here uh the screw worm which is a highly devastating to crops and livestock um uh parasite we had gotten it out of north america about a century ago now in the last three years it's popped up again

because it supposedly was brought up with all the illegal immigration they they basically brought in a

bunch of confi accident supposedly contaminants and whatnot in the screw worm larva was one of them

“and now they're finding them in Texas and the cattle there and that's very bad um so i think they”

found some in florida central florida recently as well the point is is that um all the stuff that we as americans take for granted abundant food affordable groceries energy all of this stuff is being denied to us on some level it's being complicated our ability to get that and it's being done because of policy it's not being done because there's an actual shortage no it's being done because of policy either war or whatever but remember the war was the war of choice it's not

like the Iranians attack us so all of this is certainly you start getting into a very dark place Tucker and i know i've certainly gone down don't let my sunny disposition confuse you i i've certainly gone down i'm very blessed i have a beautiful family and and so i'm i'm very happy in my personal life but but you know i talked about some pretty bleak things and you can start to see the darkness in human hearts and certainly our leaders and to clear leaders yeah i have

some thoughts so i'm not going to express because that's dark enough but i i know i hope you will come back and it's just it's great anytime get your analysis i learned i just learned a lot so Brendan thank you thank you great to see you i bless that's it for us we'll see you next Wednesday thank you.