If Pogačar Is This Good, Can UAE Go 1-2 at the Tour? | THEMOVE+

And you see sex stuff super concentrated going, I mean, not gonna say full gas but like pushing it.

And the Totoro smiling to the camera like making jokes to his friend. You know, we have not seen it on TV but it's quite telling of how good the Totoro is and so combined that with the way of watchers racing right now.

“I don't know if I said it already, I think I said it.”

I can see them riding away together, the Totoro and the Totoro and the Totoro.

Just the two of them in the two of the fronts. Everybody welcome back to the move plus I'm spent tomorrow and I'm here with Johan Berniel and we are recording an unusual circumstances. I'm on the ground at the tour of Switzerland, a poaching a conference room right now. Hopefully we don't get kicked out mid episode.

“Johan is deep in the wilds of northern Spain kind of like our earnest timming way of his time going.”

Bushwaking through the mountains but we found that the best way to have him call in was just through the audio.

The video is not working so there'll be a beautiful headshot of him while you're watching this on YouTube but Johan. How are you? Well, we'll talk about some racing tours with the lend of course that if we got you put on a clinic, but how are you doing since we've left? I'm good. I'm good Spencer. So last time last time we spoke, I guess no, I was already I already came back from Mara Keshe. I guess yeah.

“Yeah, we wrapped up. I think you were like just leaving for no, I think you were like one hour away from your flight. Am I wrong?”

No, but we we I think we wrapped up. Yeah, actually yes. I was still in Mara Keshe. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So I came quickly home. Just quickly changed suitcase and drove up to northern Spain where where my son Christian is racing a four day stage race. Well, the Saya. She's like the biggest stage race for juniors in Spain. So I'm here for days supporting him and watching races. And I am actually in really little town. There's not many hotels here. So I'm in like a rural whatever Airbnb. And yeah, unfortunately the Wi-Fi is not the same as in Madrid here.

So but anyways, we are committed to the podcast we're here. Unfortunately, there's no video image, but it's what is it? It's 10 30 p.m. And we're going to talk about some bike racing. Yeah, it starts to feel ridiculous. It's like my son is asleep in his room. Hopefully I'm running around a hotel later. And I'm actually in picnic posts and L's team hotel. And I was like eating dinner and kind of cover my face. You said a lot of stuff about them on the show. Hopefully they do not recognize us. But it's actually kind of it's cool. And these smaller races, especially like watch, you can like can watch them kind of go about their routine. It's quite instructive to to get that type of view. But very hot in Switzerland. If you've been watching the race, it's like it's looked sunny. And if you don't pay attention to the temperature, like, oh, that looks nice. But it's been unbelievably hot and only getting hotter.

I said, I, I probably jinxed it. I sent in the last show where two shows ago is like, oh, it's not going to get above 30 in London. And I think that forecast for Tuesday is a high of 36. And with it's been over 30 degrees every day at two of Switzerland. I remember when Ted Epigotcher was not good in the heat. I was thinking about that narrative today because he is two minutes 50 seconds up on Richard Caripass in second place. Seven seconds up on Andrea Badgeoli in third and then the fourth place writer, Matthias Vitechek is actually writing really well. It's four minutes 16 seconds down. And we have not had a mountain, a real mountain stage or a time trial stage. These gaps are only going to get bigger because tomorrow stage four is a time trial. I previewed the course today.

It's perfect for Fagotcher. And then stage five is a really brutal mountain stage kind of around the UCI headquarters that I'm sure he's just going to extend his lead on. But if you have not seen this race, really all you need to know is stage one was I don't know. You think you know what's going to happen. And then Pagotcher shows up. I'm still gobsmacked at this because it was kind of a mild stage. There's a I don't know. There was an intermediate sprint. Like, wasn't really even on a climb. There's an intermediate sprint point. It's weird. They do one sprint point. And then a kilometer later. They do a second sprint point. This is stage one. He just kind of goes off the front with brand of technology takes the time, you know, two seconds. Everyone behind is probably thinking, well, why are we fighting for two seconds?

By the end of stage one, he was two minutes, 14 seconds on Richard Carapaz who basically had a 40, 50 K long solo pursuit actually heads up right by him. Bajile, it was 229 back and everybody else was over four minutes back. And that was on just a rolling stage on stage one where he got away on an intermediate sprint. It kind of tells you that he's probably here training in some ways like that was a training effort for the tour, especially with the shorter race.

Stage two, he again blew it up. I've never seen anything like this. They got to the final two climbs. He's trying to lead out Jonathan Novaya's teammate.

Novaya's is getting dropped. So then Novaya recovers in between two climbs starts to lead out Pagotcher who then says, no, no, I will lead you out. And they're like fighting over who's going to lead who out. On off on the front situation. And then eventually, Novaya just gets dropped. Matiz Vichek is there. So Pagotcher says, I should probably follow him. Follows him. They both almost actually a funsuit of Lollio gets caught from the break away.

“I think, and how did he get that race assignment? The guy just had the zero of his life. And now he's at the two of Switzerland. I don't know what happened there, but they almost catch the break. They pulling back minutes in the final few days.”

But Roman Gregwar from group. I'm a FDJ super impressive ride like didn't panic state in the group. Great sprint wins. Pagotcher and Vichek are four seconds behind him in seventh.

There's sorry, sixth and eighth and Vichek looked really good. Like a really good. I was super impressed with him. And then today stage three was he was like,

"Hilly at the beginning, and then 60 K flat to the finish, so you're thinking, man, it's probably going to be a sprint stage, right?" Well, Jonathan Novaya skits away with Zandro. What, how do you say is last name? Tom Bittos, what do you say? It's from the one. Yes, huge guy. Big guy. They get away and Novaya says, so arrow. So I feel he's getting more arrow by the day. And he's so strong. And they hold off the peloton. They have three minutes with about, I'm going to say, 60 K to go. And then it drops to, it was like 133 with 20 K to go.

So you're like, "Well, they're going to get caught." But if you crunch the numbers on that, the peloton was pulling back about four seconds a kilometer. But that's not enough because if you keep pulling that back, you're going to lose by four seconds. And that's almost exactly what happened. They got to the finish line. Narvaya's out sprints. Zandro, I would love to get your thoughts if you think there was maybe a deal that would, because he, you know, was the old 2020, 2012 Olympics. Oh, I didn't see it going on that side.

And they had worked pretty well together all day. Narvaya's wins with Magnus Court from Innox getting third and Innox had offered no work all day that kind of shows you why you should be careful about.

“You know, actually, why you should think about not working at all in some of these races. But what are your thoughts on this, on this pagature exhibition we're seeing here?”

Yeah, I spent so many basically all comes down to stage one.

As you said, you know, he attacked, he didn't attack after a sprint. He just looked around. He did not even try to get away. But you could see that after that bonus sprint, there was a false flat uphill and everybody was on the limit and pagature just went to the left of the road, just kept pushing and nobody could react. I don't think it was a matter of hesitating or, you know, being scared. I think they were all on the limit. And then he starts, I think it was 74k to go when he goes and initially he pushes it like usual until he gets a minute and then, you know, he starts to cruise.

I mean, I think one of the images that will stick with me from stage one and the two of Switzerland Spencer is he crests a climb and then he just, you know, you can see that he takes a left and he starts downhill and you have the whole valley and he was just sighting. He was the guy was just looking around and enjoying the landscape.

“That's what it looked like. And I mean, he had two, four keen on Karapas. Karapas was a good ride or by himself also and then I mean, then the other, the other question is, where are all the other climbers?”

Where are these guys? It's a bit thin. You know, the participation, the rivals of Pugacha, but you know, like, wrong glitches there. He was underperforming. He's been underperforming so far. Like, yeah, by a lot. Am I crazy for thinking that he wasn't even supposed to be here? I thought he was taking a multi month long break.

Is he racing the two? I don't think it's just doing, yeah, the world, no, the world. Yeah, the world. So he's not doing the two or so. Listen, I mean, it's, it's a bit of an expensive guy to have on the team if he doesn't race at all. So I'm going to guess that the team matters at the end point.

The team management has probably put their foot down.

But this is definitely not the premise that we're used to see. He was in that group behind Pugachar and behind Karapas and he got dropped from that group on that last kicker. I mean, climb 1.4 kilometers speed, but That was the only time where Pugachar pushed to the again on that last climb and he took another 30 seconds on that one on a 1.4 kilometer climb.

“So I think it confirms Spencer, of course, it's difficult to judge if the competition is, I mean, this is not a ringing guard or a little bit or even a pool or or these guys, right, or they'll total.”

So it's difficult to judge, but it looks to me like he's on an incredible level. He's here to have fun does whatever he wants. It looks to me like in the race, you know, just gets away without trying.

And it just confirms what we've been saying that you know, he has once again improved. Definitely looks stronger than his last stage, which was the tour of Romandi, which he won and plus four stages. So he looks stronger than there. And yeah, I mean, this just I mean, we'll see is still the time travel tomorrow and then I mean the last stage, Spencer, there's no way he's not winning that last stage, I think.

“So yeah, I mean, what does that say, you know, and especially so close to the tour of France, are we going to see a real race in the tour of France?”

Honestly, I don't think so. I think I think UAE is going to crush it. Isn't it the crush it, you know, why I say that Spencer because today I saw.

If you didn't, I'll send it to you. A little clip of the dofine where we saw that the autoro one comfortably we saw that, okay, but we know Paul sex has had this crash and could not defend his, you know, his real value right, but I saw a little clip of the stage where. So there were six, six, six, six, six, six. Yeah, okay, they came in together, they came in together, they didn't, they didn't when the stage exactly. It was a hard climb, they came in together, sex has drove the pace on that climb and then the autoro started to collaborate a bit and then the autoro basically did the last part and came over the finish together with sex has, but this a clip circulating on social media where sex has is setting the temple and there's a friend of the autoro making a video.

You know, we have not seen it on TV, but it's quite telling of how good the autoro is. And so combined that with the way.

“The autoro is, and so combined that with the way. Watch out for racing right now. I don't know if I said it already, I think I said it. I can see them riding away together.”

The autoro and and pull out char. Just the two of them in the two of the fronts on certain times. Wait, you, you could see Pagotcha and Delta were riding away from from Jonas. Yes. Yes. Whoa. Yeah. I mean, I would love to disagree with you, but I can't, I know it's Switzerland, right? But after Narvaya's watching Narvaya's, like, this is not, like, he's not nearly as good as Pagotcha, right?

Yeah, that's crazy. By the way, speaking of Narvaya's, you know, great stage win of Narvaya's. You know, crashed out of the Jiro. We've talked about Narvaya's during the Jiro many times that he was, was kind of considered as a done deal returning to emails or net company. But turns out that's not the case. He stays with UAE. I don't know if you saw that. He has renewed. Yeah, what, what even happened there? Well, they, they up the offer. They, they, they increased the offer at UAE.

“I, I think Narvaya is, what, is it, I mean, I don't know, I don't know. What can he expect?”

Like, what, what is that offer, you think? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. What can he expect? Like, what is that offer, you think? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. What can he expect? Like, what is that offer, you think?

I mean, I do in three million. I mean, I maybe, and I mean, maybe I'm out of the way.

And it is a lot of money for writer like that. You know, in two and three million, three years, it's not a bad deal. It's like, that's what that's probably what Karapas makes, you know. So, I mean, who would you rather have? I'd rather have good and advice. I mean, and he's so handy as a, I agree, I totally agree. And I, he's so handy as a domestic as well, in addition to winning just a ton of races. Yeah, I mean, he's so, he's so, I mean, versatile, you know, he can, he can, I mean, if he would, if this guy would focus in the spring on the spring classics, he's in the final of those races.

Every single time because he's so, yeah, for sure. You know, let's not forget that Narviz, when he was young, he was on the nails, and he was the one who followed Matthew Vanderpool. In one of the, I think he was in Kürl or in Omlopus, one of those races. And everybody's saying, who the, who the hell is that guy, you know?

“But, and then we all remember what he did last year on, on Hotacam, blue, blue, mean, that's, that's one of the, one of those days where, you know, when Narviz was pulling,”

Jonas was dropped already.

You know, so imagine, imagine, this is the Toro. The Toro is like, yeah, I love that a lot better than Narviz uphill. Yes. Yes. I'm, I'm still digesting.

Let's take a quick, let's take a quick ad break while I digest this take. This is something to think about. I don't think, I don't think it's totally, I don't think it's that far. I don't think it's that far off. And it is, it's a little freaky watching these guys race the moment.

But, um, we'll be right back.

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Individual results may vary based on studies of topical and oral and financial rights. Okay, Johan, we're back. What are we going to say? Yeah, I mean, so we're talking about who got charren, the total in UAE, right?

There's one guy who seems to completely disagree with us. I don't know if you saw that interview. His micostur, or storer, or he is convinced that Jonas is going to win the two of the France. That he saw Jonas in the zero, raised to him, against him. I think that he didn't go full gas.

I do agree. He didn't go full gas. And that he's going to be better in the tour than in the zero. And that Jonas is going to win the tour. What do you think? I don't know why Mike Osdor would say it.

So I love, I love the take. I let swice. It gets a conversation going. But my question of Michael Stored and Jonas is a great writer. Like I've been reflecting on, I don't know if we had this conversation.

But if Tatyde, let's say he was a barista, he never races.

Jonas is probably considered better than Lance right now. Because he's won five tours going on six. And he's also won the zero in the vault of Walt's doing that. Yeah, and seven without Bogotja, he is by far the best stage racer of the last 20 years. I would say Jonas without Bogotja.

Great writer.

“But I guess I would ask Michael Stored, where is he making up the time?”

I just don't think the math works out on the climbs or the time trials.

So unless Bogotja is a problem, where are you doing this? Well, plus we can't estimate, but at the tour, everybody is on a higher level. The question is, how much higher is the level of Jonas, how much higher can it be? I think there's some improvement there compared to the zero, no doubt about that. But I just think that Bogotja is on a much higher level still.

I don't know, seeing from, I mean, the way he has dominated these racers, Spencer, you know, starts to start to be empty, blows everybody away. Then the start to be, so start to be, then Milauts and Brahma wins after that crash. Two or longer, blows everybody away.

Then get second in the, in the Parituba, then the Esvastoli Esh, just like one man show.

And then he goes to Roman, the kind of kind of testing race because he hadn't trained in the mountains. And you know, everybody's, you know, he's not that strong. When, for stages and the overall, and now shows up at the tour Switzerland and just blows, blows away everybody again. So, yeah, I mean, I don't know what else. And it seems, it feels to me that this is not his maximum level.

He's in progression now towards his optimal to the France level.

Now, how do we, I can't overstate this enough, we haven't even gotten to the terrain in Switzerland that's good for him.

He's doing this on, you know, you see, you know, there's this complex, but you see guys like Paul's successful weight, right? Like, I'm going to wait till the final weekend. But God chose this mentality now, he's like, I'm going to take, I'm going to take four minutes on a sprint stage. Because then I've got this big cushion. And it, like, he was really aggressive on stage two because what does he care about Vachek, right?

Like he's pulling Vachek to the line, like just extending his lead over everybody else on a stage where he probably shouldn't even be doing that. So, I don't know, I can't say it. I would think Jonas would have to take leaps to get to Pagotcher's level.

“And then you're just even, so, I mean, if he won the tour, I think it would be by a tiny margin, right?”

I think what Jonas could try to, his ambition is probably going to be, okay, my goal is to just follow Pagotcher and try to stay with him. You know, I don't think he can, he can have the ambition to attack and drop Pagotcher. Yeah, you don't see a serious problem. Exactly, that's the situation. Try to stay with Pagotcher and hope that something goes wrong with that Pagotcher's over ambitious that, you know, he runs out of fuel, like he did one year in those, in one of those stages, it's just two years ago, no?

That's what happened. So, that's kind of, I think what Jonas, Jonas's ambition should be, or can be, but from there to say, okay, I'm going to attack in the mountains and drop Pagotcher and take minutes on him. I just don't see it happening. Yeah, it seems a little hard to imagine, especially at this point. We'll see, I guess we'll see how, I mean, how do you think he's going to do in the time trial tomorrow? It's 2023K actually looked at the road and thought, oh, that'd be a great road to go on a ride on.

And then that's the road, the time trial goes out. It just kind of loops. There's this little, just what's on this kind of a funny country. You think of it is the big Alps. But at the north half, it's just kind of these beautiful green sub-out pine mountains. Yeah, kind of have this mountain. But the route runs like along the base of the mountain. And there is two climbs in the middle. One is, they're both sub-kilometer. Like one is 0.8 kilometers. The other one is like 0.5, like half, half, 500 meters basically at around 5 or 6%. And then the descent is kind of technical. I would almost say that's where someone like Rimmie Kavanya could go crazy.

“Because what does he care about? You know, Pagotcher is trying not to crash. So maybe someone could take time there. But I kind of think he wins his time trial tomorrow. Do you see anybody beat him?”

Is there S-flat? Then it's yeah, then it's downhill to flat. It's not geodatized stage 10, you know, where it was along the Lito. It was pancake flat and straight. It is there is technical. It's rolling and it's technical. So 160 meters of climbing.

Yeah. I'm not sure if he wins the time trial. But I mean, it was in the way he rolled on stage one man. That was a 74 kilometer time trial. So, you know, he did, yeah. I don't know. Why, he has this new bike, right? That he's using, I think he's he used it for the first time in the pro. Yeah, they just released it. It stuck a super light time trial bike.

Yes, because that was the knock on their time trial bike. They always had a super fast flat land kit for time trials, like very fast.

“And then this is the next push to try to, and that's why he changes bikes a lot. You know, where Jonas will stay on the TT bike.”

He goes to the road bike sometimes. And this is a wish to get equal to them. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I mean, listen, it's both possible. I mean, I would definitely not be surprised if he wins the time trial. I mean, which other time trial specialists are there. So, Kavanya, you just named him is, is it's cool there, it's definitely cool. I know. I know. I think you know what he broke something. He broke something.

It's pretty serious, I think. Yeah. I think it's a pretty serious injury. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, just then it'd be like a rock, rock, lich, but he's not going to win, right?

No, no, no, no. Actually, you know who the wild card is, is our guy, Alec Sigart. Oh, okay. Yeah. I mean, he's a good time trialist. I mean, there's not, I mean, it's like brand and make naughty. It's not a lot of them. No, no. I mean, those guys are not beating Kogachar. I don't think Alec Sigart.

I mean, also listen to another guy who from Bahrain, who did the zero, and is here now. Don't know if he finished the zero. I don't know. I don't think Alec Sigart finished the zero. He won the stage and then a few stages afterwards.

Oh, no, he did finish. Are he did? Okay. Okay.

Well, no, he finished. He finished. Yeah. Okay. We're thinking of the person you're thinking of is Michael Valgrin, who won that stage and then. Exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, so Sigart, but you know what I mean, if you look Sigart. Kavanya, okay, they're good writers, but they're not who got your rivals.

Not even in a time trial. I don't think so. Yeah, I've got to say the whole. The whole. The whole swese vibe. It kind of feels like summer vacation type thing. It's not. It's much, you can, like, it's just, it's much less serious than the dopamine is at the, at the moment. But I kind of like the reduced stages. I am liking this shorter version of it.

“I think it gives each stage more, like a little bit more heft.”

And like, it makes no bias is stealing the only sprints stage of the race today. That much more consequential. So I like the five stage format. And it does feel like it would be good training if you've got your. So I, I, I get what they're doing. It's also Switzerland's a very nice country to come to.

It's very easy to get around so you can come and see multiple stages if you want. And then I assume we're just pencil them in for stage five. I think it's extremely hard. Mountain stage with circuits, which for some reasons. We don't really understand make races harder. I feel like when they go over the same roads multiple times.

“I think you're just going to absolutely crush everybody on that.”

It looks like we've lost your home. I think we got more out of them there than we could have expected with the, the level of connectivity we had. We, we heard quite a bit and we'll have them back right after the end of Switzerland this over the weekend. And then I will talk to them about Prima's Rockledge from how help we got your ends up winning this race. Prima's Rockledge, but we can expect from him going forward comes kind of concerning form to be completely honest with everybody. Has not been himself or the Braglish we've known for the last few years in the last, I don't know, almost year at this point.

Since the two of friends last year, really. So I'm interested in curious to hear Johans take on that. And as well as to see who finished on the podium of this, this tour of Switzerland. There's a lot left to play for here and we are excited to watch it and we'll be back with the move right after. It's some time after the final stage outside of it.

All right. Well, thank you and we'll talk to you later. Bye.